JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


Handbooks

The Skeptics Handbook

Think it has been debunked? See here.

The Skeptics Handbook II

Climate Money Paper


Advertising

micropace


GoldNerds

The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX



Archives

Unthreaded Weekend

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 7.7/10 (26 votes cast)
Unthreaded Weekend, 7.7 out of 10 based on 26 ratings

Tiny Url for this post: http://tinyurl.com/zrd3tu5

258 comments to Unthreaded Weekend

  • #
    Joe Lalonde

    MOVED from the Delcon thread. This and 5 in reply (+2 more below) – Jo
    —————–
    Jo,

    Here is an issue that current politicians should be worried about and yet, pushing it ahead all the time…at some point, it will not go any further…

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-28/its-debt-stupid-scotiabank-warns-some-point-future-becomes-today

    90

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Curious timing. I was at a talk by 2 economists yesterday. They started by pointing out that there was wide spread unease about the future, which was justified. Their view was
      The Central or Reserve Banks don’t know what to do.
      The commercial banks are frantically trying to stay solvent by borrowing and lending to anything that pays a bit higher interest.
      The stock market is a chaotic casino employing people with no idea of what is happening.
      The politicians are even more clueless than usual.
      Debt is so high that a major depression (major as in bigger and longer than the 1930′s) is inevitable.
      There will be revolutions and democracy will probably not survive.

      Who said economics was the gloomy subject? Obviously both are retired so can say what they believe.

      310

      • #
        pattoh

        G3 you forgot to throw in the $1.5 QUADRILLION in derivatives & over 100 people owning each oz of allocated Gold!

        90

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          How many countries are still on the gold standard? How much real gold is held by the Bank of England? How much real gold is held in Fort Knox?

          Interesting questions! Nobody who attempts to answer them, comes away feeling very happy.

          90

          • #
            Graeme No.3

            Especially when the German Government wanted part of their gold back from Fort Knox and was told it would take at least 15 months. Which raises the questions
            Why would it take 15 months to find the gold?
            Why would Germany suddenly decide that a gold bar in the hand was worth more than one in Fort Knox?

            140

            • #
              Yonniestone

              This is an article from 2013 on ‘Why is Germany repatriating their gold?’ that gives a good historical overview of Germany’s gold reserves.

              I recalled a story where a company wanted to physically see its gold investment but couldn’t because it didn’t exist, sorry can’t find the link yet.

              30

              • #
                Yonniestone

                If you do as search with ‘Gold reserves don’t exist’ there’s plenty of results for Germany including,

                On January 16, 2013 Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, said it will ship back home all 374 tonnes it had stored with the Banque de France in Paris, as well as 300 tonnes held in Manhattan by the US Federal Reserve, by 2020.
                Fast forward 18 months and Buba, as the Federal Bank of Germany is often called, has only managed to bring home a paltry 37 tonnes of gold.

                This will be a big problem for socialists trying to print more gold…..

                90

              • #

                re: “This will be a big problem for socialists trying to print more gold”

                The socialists are expecting somebody to invent, develop and make a StarTrek-style “replicator”. So that they can first regulate, licence, tax and eventually nationalise them. Which of course won’t work as a system until somebody discovers Latinum.

                60

              • #
                spangled drongo

                There’s been a fair bit of “gold bar printing”. Tungsten has the same SG as gold:

                http://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/gold-news/chinatungsten-online-chinese-firm-promotes-gold-plated-tungsten/

                40

              • #
                Lewis P Buckingham

                One of my sons is the proud possessor of a one trillion dollar gold bar.
                He bought it a few years ago on the net. It feels like aluminium and is as thin as a credit card and gold plated. Price? ten dollars Australian.
                By the way it is legal tender, in Zimbabwean dollars.

                60

          • #
            Manfred

            China adds to gold reserves in December, buying streak to continue

            The United States, the top holder of gold with over 8,000 tonnes, has 73 percent of its total foreign reserves in gold.

            China’s gold reserves stood at 56.66 million troy ounces at the end of December, versus 56.05 million ounces in November, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said on Thursday.
            In tonnage terms, China’s reserves increased by 19 tonnes in December to 1,762.323 tonnes. PBOC’s purchases in the second half of the year totaled about 104 tonnes.

            Elsewhere, Metals Focus, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council reports the following trends in Gold demand — Q4’15 vs Q4’14; Tonnes %change (growing trend emboldened), central bank purchases being the most substantial tonnes % change in the period:

            Jewellery: -1
            Technology: -7
            Electronics: -7
            Other Industrial: -2
            Dentistry: -4
            Investment: 15
            Total bar and coin demand: 1
            Physical Bar demand: 5
            Official Coin: -14
            Medals/Imitation Coin: 5
            ETFs & similar products: —
            Central bank net purchases: 25
            Gold demand: 4
            London PM fix, US$/oz: -8

            Feeling happy?

            30

          • #
            Mike

            The gold standard does not apply when there are no sovereign nations. The banks can print as much as they like and create artificial demand for the gold metal when the rest of us are selling gold to pay down debt.

            The end result is the banks own all the gold.

            Banks buy hundreds of tons of gold at a time.

            Without the demand created by banks who print money, the value of gold would not be much at all.

            10

            • #
              Graeme No.3

              There are industrial uses for gold. A little at a time but you will have some in your TV, telephone, computer etc.

              20

        • #
          Analitik

          Derivatives are indeed the white elephant in the global economy, in particular, those which are 2nd order or above. Valuation of these is impossible given the complexity of relating them back to underlying concrete assets and the necessary interdependence of their resulting valuations.

          That they were ever allowed to be seen as anything other than pure gambling is what generated the world wide inflation (“wealth creation”) that is debasing all fiat currencies – the ever increasing issue of money (quantitative easing since printing is no longer necessary) by federal banks is merely the outward manifestation of this artificial wealth.

          The GFC was only the initial correction for this mess. If the governments had the guts get together and to make the call, they would have immediately declared 2nd and higher order derivatives worthless and either
          a) forced the issuers to return the money they sold them for
          or
          b) forced all holders to take the haircut (number zero) on their “investments”

          The first option would have been extremely difficult to implement and the exchange rates would have needed to be fixed for the rollback while the second option would have caused even more pain for those left holding the bag at the date of determination. Still, the price has to be paid and IMO, it would have been far better to get the mess out in the open and dealt with in a single hit rather than stringing things out for another day (generation).

          The rating agencies (Moody’s, Standard & Poor, Fitch) should be fined colossal amounts for ever rating higher order derivatives as anything other than outright junk and these monies distributed to victims in either case.

          90

          • #
            KinkyKeith

            Good comment.

            No government oversight of so much of the financial world.

            And it continues. We still have the little understood “fast trading” with the sole objective of easing a cool hundred thousand or so out of our sharemarket every day. It ends up in the USA.

            Why?

            21

      • #
        pattoh

        Plus if you really want to put on your tin hat ( when considering the PM for Goldman Sachs):-

        http://thedailycoin.org/goldman-sachs-bail-in-plot-designed-to-steal-your-bank-account/2016/04/29/

        70

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Graeme No.3,

        Somehow I have the gut feeling that your comment is an understatement of the situation. You left out that around the world various factions are at each other’s throats. It cannot possibly stay that way much longer without a war breaking out with far reaching, very bad consequences.

        Some of those factions have atomic bombs. What will happen if just one goes off anywhere in the world? I don’t think it will matter where it happened or who did it. Someone may respond in kind and… …pfft!

        70

        • #

          As nasty as it is, wars often rebalance things and generate an economic recovery. The question is, where is a war likely to happen?

          40

          • #
            Yonniestone

            As we are a part of nature so our behaviour should find parallels with it, our wars are akin to natures storms where certain conditions react and build up to a release of energy, the result while initially destructive cleans the way for new life or the unburdening of what was previously encumbered.

            40

          • #
            Another Ian

            And clean the shiny bums that can’t hack it out of public service systems.

            It took the UK around a year to clean up those accumulated in the space of 1918 t0 1939 to a workable level (Parkinsons first law in retreat somewhat).

            Right now we’ve got 1945 – 2016!!!

            Better not be a quick war.

            20

            • #
              Graeme No.3

              Better re-read Parkinson and the figures supplied.
              The British Civil Service more than doubled between 1939 and 1946, and didn’t suffer major reductions until Margaret Thatcher became PM.

              20

        • #
          Manfred

          Well Roy, at least ‘they’ at the UN may have advanced their policy development to ban smoking, while at the same time relaxing their approach to drugs.
          Cultural Marxism at work, and the application of critical theory, the wrecking ball of the West that must be eradicated from civilised society.

          40

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            If all the UN has to worry about is smoking then I think we should defund that group of highly advanced thinkers and put in some good reliable Chimps in their place. It’d be lot cheaper too. Chimps work for a few bananas every day and they won’t tax us, regulate us or take away our freedoms. They just make some harmless noise every now and then.

            I better not go any further or I’ll blow a fuse.

            What a waste of money. :-(

            60

            • #
              Manfred

              The Chimp Standard

              I’ve long been entertained by The Chimp Standard, that idea of a troop of chimps being employed (think bananas here) to score multiple choice examinations. The Chimp Standard may or may not approximate a random result, but it sounds like a standard a student should be able to surpass. Not sure I’d be happy with Chimps at the UN, but if we inverted this thought for a moment, and confined the UN and WHO delegates to the World’s zoos’, theme parks’ and safari reserves, they would generate a lot more fun and raise some useful cash too. A limited hunting season could also be granted, under license from the Chimps of course.

              40

              • #
                Roy Hogue

                The Chimp Standard

                I never thought of it that way before. But it gives me an idea. Why don’t we — you and I — go into business with the Chimps and open up a string of theme parks? I’m sure we could come up with some unique and thrilling rides and so on, of course, with the help of the Chimps. And we’d make a lot of money. Nuts to the UN and all the rest. We’ll go all out while the world lasts. ;-)

                10

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          Roy Hogue:

          Boom with inflation, bust with deflation then war pushing up debt? After the war inflation needed to get rid of debt. Cycle claimed, except this time most western countries are so indebted that they can’t afford a war. Doesn’t mean that it won’t happen.
          China is pushing its luck in the South China Sea in the belief that the USA can’t/won’t do anything. Should the Donald win then I expect them to be much more consiliatry.

          P.S. You’ve heard? If Trump wins the Presidency it will be a historic event. The first time a black family is evicted from public housing, to make way for a billionaire.

          140

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            You’ve heard?

            Yes. I heard. Things like that spread around the net like the fire from an overturned gasoline tanker on a steep grade. I laughed for several minutes. Funniest thing to come along for quite a while. :-)

            More seriously — wars do tend to rebalance things, at least eventually. But I think the world has become too small now for anyone to be able to sit back and hope to ride it out unscathed. We’re all much more interdependent now than we were, say, in the 1930s. Not being able to afford one may not offer much hope either. If attacked seriously, what do you do? You fight whether you can afford it or not. The alternative is too bad to contemplate.

            30

      • #
        el gordo

        The U.S. is the most indebted nation on earth. ‘This is partly due to the desire of other nations to hold U.S. debt, with Japan and China the two biggest foreign owners of treasuries.’

        Bloomberg

        30

        • #
          pattoh

          Yep, I have read somewhere that 45% of the US T notes are held offshore & the T notes are first pass on the generation of Fractional Reserve Fiat Money.

          What do you reckon they will use for the exchange rate measure when the world wakes up to the ponzi scheme which is the $US?

          Is there a futures market in metal detectors?/sarc.

          40

        • #
          Bite Back

          The U.S. is the most indebted nation on earth.

          And it is also due to our numbskull government thinking it can borrow its way to permanent political power in DC and eventually all the states. If these nations so eager to hold American IOUs had any brains they would never borrow another cent from us nor would they keep the worthless IOUs. We are insolvent by any accounting standard you could apply and that changes everything. They would call in those debts and be able to walk right in and own the USA. And the UN would undoubtedly support them.

          That is exactly what I would do if I was head man in China. And I could easily enlist the support of other creditor nations.

          Right now we would not even have the will to fight them off — we are too cowardly as a nation to even think about it. We would have a welcoming committee at the airport waiting to kiss the new owners as they arrive.

          I could almost wish for it to happen just to watch the fun.

          BB

          31

      • #
        ianl8888

        Agreed with all points, but:

        The politicians are even more clueless than usual.

        is both true and really dangerous, since these [snip] WILL do something (anything), and really spark out-of-control responses. It’s in their narcissistic DNA. Obama is now boasting that his “legacy” is saving the world from the GFC … there is no conceivable rational response .

        70

        • #
          ianl8888

          BTW, the silly “snip” was for the word murons, but with an “o” rather than a “u”

          Political corectness is just a vomit

          [If you think Jo's rules are silly you can take it up directly with her by sending email to, joanne[@]joannenova.com.au. She is always interested in what her readers think about the site.] AZ

          30

      • #
    • #
      Pauly

      MOVED from the Delcon thread and the reply to this comment. — Jo
      ———————————-

      For those who’ve never heard of it, the book “This Time Is Different” by Reinhart and Rogoff explored in great detail the possible causes of the Global Financial Crisis. Their conclusions came down to three causal factors:

      1. Excessive federal government debt (>60% of GDP);
      2. Financial sector deregulation leading to excessive speculation in markets; and
      3. A banking crisis resulting in a credit squeeze.

      Australia’s current federal government debt levels are high in absolute measure, but not in comparative measures such as Debt to GDP ratios. The country is sitting at around 21% debt to GDP at the moment.

      In regards to the current debate, I would have to say that my vote will go to the party that provides better economic management for Australia. The evidence is abundant in regard to the choices there. Minor parties tend to have very limited agendas and almost no clue about running an economy that generates $1.6 Trillion per year. And they will never be in charge, given the political dominance of the two major parties.

      The economic credibility comparison between Labor and Liberal/National Party has become much much more pronounced over the last 25 years. Labor only knows how to spend money, even money it doesn’t have. The LNP win elections when Labor’s economic mismanagement becomes obvious to all – at both State and Federal level. Subsequently, the LNP is blamed for having to make tough economic choices, but the evidence points to LNP governments improving the economic fundamentals over time.

      The reality is that the economic policies put in place since September 2013 have not changed at all with the change in Liberal Party leadership. I could wish for a stronger approach to tax reforms, accompanied by a genuine debate in the community. But politicians on all sides seem fundamentally reluctant to champion any genuine tax reform approaches.

      So my vote will go to the candidates promising better economic outcomes for this country. Because their climate change position has exactly as much significance on our economic future as global warming has on rising sea levels.

      151

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Pauly:
        They will all promise to provide better economic outcomes for this country. They won’t deliver, they can’t deliver because they don’t know how to deliver even if they wanted to.

        We have had an economic boom with minor setbacks since the early 1950′s. Debt has built up and up. History shows that excessive debt leads to economic collapse – it may not be the direct cause but is what drives the cart downhill, or over the cliff – and depression. Depression with deflation, i.e. paying off debt at the expense of spending leads to misery, unemployment and, if prolonged, revolution. Frantic effects to pay off the debt with inflation leads to hyperinflation (Hungary, Austria, Germany 1921-23), misery, unemployment and, at the next check, revolution e.g. Germany 1933). And don’t even look at Argentina.
        The ‘powers-that-be don’t know what to do. In the EU, UK and the USA they have reduced the interest rates to zero or below to encourage business investment, while pumping money into the shaky banks. All that has happened is that the banks have borrowed cheaply and lent to anyone offering a higher rate. 10 billion lent here, 10 billion lent there, with a margin of 2% on the interest adds up, until the borrower cannot repay. So the bank goes bust and the government looks frantically for money to bail it out. In Australia banks are lending, often through agents, on what are sub-prime mortgages. Should the market drop then the banks will be shaky. Just keeping borrowing until the limit is reached (Labor’s approach) isn’t an option, look at Greece. Also look at Cyprus which was financially OK until the EU forced a ‘haircut’ on Greek bonds, which the Cypriot banks had been encouraged to buy as ‘safe investments’. CUE rob depositors.
        Likewise I really don’t know what to do, or when the crunch will come. I am not attracted to the American approach of retiring to a remote shack with 1,000 cans of baked beans and high powered weaponry, regardless of what the Government permits. Nor do I want to scrounge through garbage cans as many wound up doing in Greece (and I dare say in Spain, Portugal and possibly Ireland). But one thing is certain, I will wind up poorer and M. Turnbull will be richer, although I hope just by the length of a piece of rope.

        110

        • #
          el gordo

          G3 you failed to mention China and the Third Way.

          10

          • #
            Graeme No.3

            The third way is communism with a slight twist. Instead of the Russian approach of centralised control, building infrastructure and using inferior copies of western consumer goods to placate the public, the Chinese have spent huge amounts on building infrastructure but have utilized the capitalistic instincts of the population to produce western consumer goods which they can sell.
            It is a mixture of communist grandiose projects (but ones carefully selected) and mercantilism (keeping the exchange rate low to undercut western markets). So they have generated vast foreign exchange balances along with cities with no inhabitants, railways not yet making money etc. but hopes of them becoming useful, but their internal debt (as a proportion of GDP) is higher than Greece. It is a calculated gamble on the future.

            Where the Chinese have been clever is in getting the West to pay for the follies like solar panels and wind turbines. They have subsidised the industry by purchasing for installation in their remote areas, giving their manufacturers volume and steady production hence competitive edge, and bringing some electricity to remote areas gaining public approval. These will be dumped at the end of their (short) life and replaced by the expanding grids. It has nothing to do with any belief in global warming.
            The West is paying for generation they don’t need in order to shut down their industry or cause it to relocate to China (more foreign investment and job growth).
            The depression in the West is hurting China, so their booming economy is slowing but not into depression. If the Communist Party can keep growth going they will survive. If China slips into recession then the debt mountains will bite and there will be unrest, regional agitation for autonomy, and the end of the Communist Party. That could be years in the future, but there are plenty of rich people in China who are sending money off-shore, just in case.

            60

            • #
              el gordo

              Excellent coverage and very readable.

              Japan was miffed because they didn’t get the $50 billion sub deal with Oz, they even went to the trouble of sailing a sub into Sydney but nobody was impressed. They have been shamed, but its a minor matter in the infrastructure boom ahead.

              The best way out of a deflationary spiral is infrastructure development, Hitler agreed with Keynes and built the autobahn.

              10

              • #
                Graeme No.3

                But the German economy came close to collapse. One of the reasons why Hitler went to war in 1939 (apart from miscalculating the UK response) and not 1944 as originally planned**.
                After 1940 they had lots of loot and other countries economy to boost them.

                ** The German navy was planning for 1944 and near parity with the British navy. There has been suggestions that Chamberlain went to war to forestall the German build-up. It has since leaked out that the British had quite accurate ideas about German Naval and Air Force strengths and future plans.

                40

              • #
                el gordo

                Hitler secretly built planes in the USSR during the late 1930s, which gave the Nazi a head start.

                Back to the present, China built ghost cites with Australian iron ore.

                http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/5395e3a86bb3f7e338952130/chinas-most-famous-ghost-city-got-even-worse-in-the-last-4-years.jpg

                They are good at building satellite cities where nobody wants to live and front runners to win the tender down under.

                10

            • #
              Analitik

              I have a different interpretation of “The 3rd Way”

              To me, it is merely a Ponzi scheme relying on the notion that green “investments” are actually worth anything. CAGW is used as the driver to justify the subsidies, taxes and regulatory distortion of markets are used to mask the reality that green schemes are a net consumer of resource (physical and financial) with the only real result being transfer of wealth from taxpayers to those involved in the scam.

              What Graeme No.3 describes, I see as the symptoms and manifestations of this corrupt scheme.

              40

              • #
                el gordo

                The Third Way can be widely interpreted, even Tony Blair believed it could unite labor and capital. As a comparison the Chinese say they are creating a socialist democracy with Chinese characteristics, which is highly speculative.

                30

              • #

                It is important to know your Economic History here.

                The “Third Way” was invented by Mussolini. Contrary to what a lot of folks will rant, Mussolini was a Socialist. His parents were Socialists. He started out translating Socialist Doctrine. At his final capture by other Socialists he pleaded for his life saying, basically, “Am I not a good socialist?”

                His “invention” was the idea of letting capitalists go ahead and retain ownership of their assets, but assure they did what The State directed. Fascist comes from the “bundle of sticks” used as a Labor emblem. That a bundle of sticks is stronger than any one alone. Labor and Government, controlling the Means of Production, while nominal “ownership” rested with the folks who had historically owned the operations. THAT was the “3rd Way”.

                1st Way: Capitalism with private ownership and decision making.

                2nd Way: Communist Socialism with Government ownership of all means of production and decision making.

                3rd Way: Private “ownership”, but Government and Labor making the decisions about the use of the means of production.

                It isn’t really subject to much “interpretation”. It is what it is, and was.

                That the current Socialists try to afflict Fascism on “the right wing” and worse, try to use the added Nationalism of the National Socialist German Workers Party (i.e. Nazis) does not erase the Socialist from their name, or beliefs.

                They differed from Communism in the belief that one could have National Pride and / or hate other races. Beyond that, not much. Fascism added the 3rd Way idea of private ownership, public control (in a Socialist Enterprise).

                Not one whit of it is related to Classical Liberals (that were not what Americans call Liberals) that were more what Americans call Libertarian today, and none of it is related to anything remotely non-socialist.

                FWIW, the current “3rd Way” is often called Lange Type Socialism and involves private ownership and decision making of small enterprises, and public ownership of major enterprises (subject to a tendency to monopoly otherwise).

                My Bias:

                Just so it is clear, I am trained in Economics, all sorts. I can ague fairly effectively that Lange Type Socialism has merits. The only thing that holds me back is the very long history of failure of All Things Socialist. It is a “nice idea” with attractive “Squirrel!” properties, but in the end it rapidly decays into a Tyranny and despotism. So “Needs Work” is the best I can give it. And, despicable as the Evil Bastards of Capitalism may be, it seems to self correct and avoid collapse best. Having One True Evil Bastard running the whole country does not work out as well as having a gaggle of them in competition in a free and open market…

                https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/03/05/isms-ocracies-and-ologie/
                https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/12/31/welcome-2012-views-of-the-3-socialisms/
                https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/03/15/fascist-doctrine/
                https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/03/25/some-quotes-on-socialism-and-fascism/
                https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/01/19/i-am-a-liberal/

                And a few more, but I’ll stop there… suffice it to say, I’ve been well down this road. A Lot.

                10

      • #
        handjive

        Pauly.
        Interesting comment. Especially this:

        “So my vote will go to the candidates promising better economic outcomes for this country.
        Because their [Global Warming] position has exactly as much significance on our economic future as global warming has on rising sea levels.”

        ~ ~ ~
        You can’t seperate Doomsday Global Warming policies and economic prosperity.
        Doomsday Global Warming policy is a direct assault on Australia’s future as it is tied to energy production, Australia’s advantage:

        Australia’s economy was shaped by access to low-cost energy.
        But energy costs are rising and our comparative advantage in energy is weakening.”
        . . .
        All pointless as we know, because there no connection between energy production and weather/climate:

        Warren Buffett, Berkshire Insurance:
        “Up to now, [Global Warming] has not produced more frequent or more costly hurricanes or other weather-related events covered by insurance.”

        70

      • #
        Peter Miller

        Few would dare accuse the parties of the left of economic competence.

        Spend, spend, spend and waste, waste, waste is a policy which is repeated generation after generation and it always affect those who voted for this the worst.

        Sigh……… When will they ever learn?

        When governments interfere in economies by offering unrealistic subsidies in support of highly dubious policies it always ends in tears – step forward energy the policies of the UK and Germany.

        30

    • #
      Mike

      It is not very clever to talk about politics without first talking about how politics is funded (creditors, like in Greece.), else it goes around in circles for ever like in the defcon thread.

      Follow the money, then vote with pencils attached to little pieces of string.

      According to polling booth staffers, we vote using pencils because it would be too expensive to supply pens.

      20

      • #
        Mike

        It is my usual question to ask why we vote using pencils attached to a piece of string. I always use a pen.

        I can remember in school hoping to go to the next grade when we would be allowed to use pens like the older kids. I was very ambitious :)

        20

        • #
          gnome

          Did you ever make it to the next grade?

          30

          • #
            Mike

            Do you mean, the next grade as in a AAA credit rating from my creditor financial institution? :)

            10

        • #
          Ted O'Brien.

          Did you ever use a rubber? Do rubbers ever get used on these ballot papers?

          20

          • #
            Mike

            Rubbers don’t get used on ballot papers, bUt if they do, then legally they (The ballot documents) are invalid as legal papers require a pen. This might be an advantage when debt is restructured like in Grease because Australians might be able to launch a class action and claim that our government was not authorised to sign up to borrow money exonerating any debt caused by the government on our behalf :)

            20

            • #
              Mike

              If rubbers could be used on ballot papers, ha, they would be supplied by the electoral commission. LoL

              10

          • #
            Another Ian

            Trojans?

            20

            • #

              Ah, the “divide” between Mum and Dad… In British English “rubber” is an eraser in ‘merican… and in ‘merican, a ‘rubber’ is a condom… Much of my life has consisted of keeping two dictionaries… I had a “moggie”, the car had a bonnet and boot and hood and trunk, and in New Zealand if they ask “Would you like to be knocked up in the morning?” that means ‘wake up call’ not “get impregnated”…

              Oh, what a glorious language we almost share…

              20

        • #

          I just bought my own pen and ‘moved on’…

          Had a fondness for Fountain Pens and still do. Never let a bureaucrat limit your horizons. Just say “Thank you”, and then decide for yourself what you do next…

          10

      • #
        James Murphy

        There’s the “urban legend” argument for pencils over pens too – pens can be filled with disappearing ink, and pencils can’t… I think pencils are more reliable, and cheaper, but maybe I need to work on my conspiracy theory development a bit?

        The Commonwealth electoral act (1918) makes reference only to pencils needing to be provided, not that people have to use them exclusively.

        In Part XVI:
        “…206 Separate voting compartments.
        Polling booths shall have separate voting compartments, constructed so as to screen the voters from observation while they are marking their ballot papers, and each voting compartment shall be furnished with a pencil for the use of voters…”

        With regards to senate voting… (i think someone here asked about it). A senate vote will be informal if:
        in Part XVIII:
        268 (b)
        subject to sections 268A and 269, in a Senate election, it has no vote indicated on it, or it does not indicate the voter’s first preference for 1 candidate and then consecutively number at least 11 other candidates in the order of his or her preference;

        30

      • #
        tom0mason

        And marking you vote in blood is just so messy!

        10

    • #
      Robk

      A good link, thanks. It pretty much sums up how I see QE.
      For those wanting some background on the money system, Wikipedia has a good description under “Modern Money Theory”.

      20

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Just a tip from a sceptic.

        It’s not rocket science, though the bankers would like you to think it is.

        Rule of thumb:

        In deflationary times: cash is king.

        In inflationary times: gold is king.

        It’s always been the way. It’ll be no different this time.

        30

        • #
          Konrad

          “It’s always been the way. It’ll be no different this time.”

          Maybe not Sam. Times are changing, largely due to the power of the Internet. There is an old saying “The more you tighten your fist, the more slips through your fingers.”

          Some say telcos had to lower prices due to competition from other telcos, but there were other technology pressures. First “voice over IP” attacked the landline market. Then there is the threat of the cell phone. It is a pocket computer with multi frequency transmitters and receivers. A small firmware hack and the public have phones that can build their own cell-net, independent of the telcos. I have friends who used Wi-Fi in an experiment to set up an independent Internet that covered all of Newcastle. The telco’s know they can’t squeeze those grasping fingers too tight.

          So too record companies. If they don’t switch to Itunes and Spotify, music will be pirated. The same for movies and TV shows. They are having to move to less gouging and distribute through streaming services like Netflix and Crunchyroll to avoid piracy.

          For decades the Lame Scream Meeja held the megaphone and wielded undeserved power and influence. Now the Niki Devine’s and Miranda Savva’s shriek in impotent rage as they find they can no longer tell the public what opinions they are allowed to have and what facts they are allowed to remember. The AGW hoax was stopped dead in its tracks by a handful of bloggers despite the full support of old media.

          Retail sales are suffering from fairer and more flexible Internet sales and distribution. Paypal and Ebay turnover rivals the economies of sovereign nations.

          So what are those examples all about?

          Simple. Money is next.

          Legal tender is losing its value. Too few are paying tax, too many are taxpayer dependant. For the taypayer, government recognised legal tender is rapidly losing its utility. The supposed legal protections its use provides for the little consumer are virtually non-existent when the parasites of the legal persuasion are factored in. Legal tender is now just exposing net contributors to society to uncontrolled taxation risk.

          Tax dependants continue to consume most government services, taxpayers are benefiting less and less from costly governments.
          Defence? The enemy is already inside the gates and our navy is trying to buy submarines from France which will be under Islamic law well before they are delivered.
          Health? Check your “privilege” before you check the waiting list you worthless old white male! Roads? Sorry, pay the toll to the private corporation, governments no longer build those.
          Police? They only do traffic fines on registered drivers. (They don’t bother with unregistered hoons as they don’t pay). When the Apex gang kicks in your door and seconds count, the police are only hours away.

          The Bitcoin experiment shows the future is knocking and it wants in. Net currencies are coming, ready or not. Here’s the interesting thing about what I shall call “NetCred”, just like legal tender, it provides a liquid exchange mechanism for property, goods and services. But unlike legal tender, it is worthless to governments. They can’t collect and redistribute it. The Bitcoin experiment showed that citizens could instantly register a individual Bitcoin null and void if it fell into government hands. Citizens will accept NetCred being donated to charities and redistributed. They won’t accept governments using NetCred. All the sprungers and parasites in our society are utterly dependant on government control of currency. They are about to lose that control. Atlas is about to Shrug. Big time!

          The future’s so bright you’re gonna need shades ;)

          38

          • #
            Mike

            nice work

            15

          • #

            Konrad:

            Interesting POV. Much to think on…

            I’ve generally been prone to “poo pooing” cypher currencies…. but you make some good points.

            Generally I agree with the Austrian School that “money” is just the most tradable commodity… and now I’m wondering what is more tradable than a bitcoin solution that is no longer available to anyone else… Hmmmm….

            11

            • #
              Konrad

              E.M. ,
              It’s fair to “poo poo” Bitcoin. It was a model ponzi scheme with a classic “salt the mine” start. However, from my degree and work in design & engineering I can tell you there is a world of difference between “engineer” and “design engineer”. The stodgy “best practice” types never seem to think about how any new technology became “best practice” or indeed how their own fear of innovation would never have resulted in what they are practising.

              It is not just about knowing what has been done, but seeing the pattern, extrapolating and seeing what is not just possible but probable. As I said “NetCred” is coming ready or not. The stars are all aligned.

              Margaret Thatcher is credited with saying “The problem with socialism is you eventually run out of other peoples money”. Time have changed. I am writing “The problem with socialism in the Internet age is governments can instantly run out of anything that is recognised as currency.” Money is a liquid capital exchange mechanism. It can have many forms. These need not be government controlled. Government controlled? Citizen controlled? Which currently poses the greater risk/benefit ratio to the net societal contributor? Which currently provides the greatest benefit to the net sprunger?

              The pattern is simple, as is the logic of my examples above. Telco’s, record companies, Movie distributors and the Lame Scream Meeja, were all over charging for sub-standard services. The Internet ended their games. Just as those fools thought their undeserved sinecures could continue in the Internet age, so do “Governments” with their increasingly worthless “legal tender”.

              When the costs of the current system outweigh the possible alternate system, the alternate system will win out. Regards currency, the only losers will be taxpayer dependants not respected or valued by the majority of their fellow citizens.

              00

              • #

                “When the costs of the current system outweigh the possible alternate system, the alternate system will win out. Regards currency, the only losers will be taxpayer dependants not respected or valued by the majority of their fellow citizens.”

                Nicely done!
                Can you elaborate a bit more on the costs, and the security of the value an ‘individual’ considers as having (not used for purchasing)? How do the ‘facilitators of Bitcoin’ get paid for that service, or is there only a mechanism (details) within the existing Internet service (cloud)? If this takes off, it will need a thread of its own Joanne.
                All the best! -will-

                00

        • #
          Mike

          The value of gold is distorted for the first time in history ……………..because the demand for gold has been created by the ability of the primary buyers to print the money used to purchase it……………………………. For example, central banks buy gold, ………….. and that rigs the price of gold because unlike you and i,……….. a central bank has an unfair advantage……….. and that means buying gold cost a lot more due to inflated prices of gold caused buy buyers with access to as much money as they like (Generally) which of course increases demand which of course pushes the price up for yoou and me.

          for golld that is lol

          14

          • #
            Mike

            It would be entirely different if every potatoe was buying gold by exchanging goods and services, for example………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. I will sell you an oil rig in exchange for some gold,,,,……..and that was the norm………………………..Instead, these days oil rigs are sold in exchange for a better credit rating to perhaps obtain a credit to then perform a stock buy-back so that the stock price remains high.

            What does this mean??

            Banks own all the gold, real estate, and the gold, regardless of if anyone owns a tiny speck or not.

            15

          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            The value of gold is distorted for the first time in history

            Not so.

            The price of gold has often been distorted.

            Its value? Never.

            It has intrinsic value that has held through millennia.

            Its price varies according to many factors. But unlike fiat money it holds its value and is an especially good commodity to have during inflationary periods.

            The Greenback has “In God we Trust” printed on it.

            Well they might, but their trust is missing an “L”

            10

            • #
              el gordo

              ‘Its price varies according to many factors.’

              Its a fairly stable commodity in war and peace. With Cadia Mine just up the road everyone felt secure in the knowledge that there would be plenty of work and associated spin-offs in the nearby towns. Unfortunately Newcrest decided to mechanize the whole operation and employ a minimum number of people, not so good for the locals anymore.

              Your earlier comment ‘in deflationary times: cash is king’, may no longer be relevant. I draw your attention to the recent Greek meltdown and cash restrictions imposed.

              20

              • #
                Sceptical Sam

                A price range of $US1,300. That’s not price stability El Gordo.

                http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au3650nyb.html

                And in a deflationary climate Cash is King, I’m afraid to say.

                For example: your cash (Euros) will buy more house at a cheaper price in a deflating economy. Take Greece as you say. (or Ireland)

                From 2007 to the end of 2014, the Greek GDP posted a contraction of 26 percent, while residential property prices declined 30 percent and those of commercial properties fell 36 percent. At the same time, in Ireland, house prices declined 46 percent while its economy contracted by just 16 percent

                http://www.ekathimerini.com/204821/article/ekathimerini/business/house-prices-set-to-fall-further

                Those with cash have snapped them up while those with assets lost their shirt.

                I rest my case.

                10

              • #

                Gold has ranged from about $250 to about $2000 in my direct memory. Stable? Hardly. ALL commodities are volatile, gold is no different. It was below $300 when European Central Banks were selling it like crazy in the rush to the Euro. It was near $2000 when inflation was the big threat.

                Better than paper? Most likely. The $US was $35 / ounce when I was about 7, then $45/ounce when France started cashing in greenbacks for gold. Then rapidly ran up to a few hundred… The $US today is about 5 ¢ of the gold backed dollar. Stanps were a nickle, cars about $1500, and we bought our house for $7000. Uprate all those by about x10 to x20 and you get today. Gold now, oh, it’s about 25 to 30 x then… but was about 20x not so long ago…

                10

            • #
              el gordo

              In Australia we are in ‘deflationary times’.

              ‘Monetary policy is all about risk management,” says Sally Auld, head of fixed income and foreign exchange for Australia at JP Morgan. “There is enough signal – rather than noise – in the last couple of inflation prints to convince the RBA that the disinflationary trend is genuine, and moreover, has not stabilised.”

              Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/what-is-the-rba-thinking-20160429-goil8p.html#ixzz47SqlSe8T
              Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

              This could become a self fulfilling prophecy.

              10

      • #

        Oh God NO! Modern Monetary Theory is a crock. Devoted to the idea that any amount of Government Spending is just dandy and has zero consequences. Absolute trash from the start to the end.

        22

  • #
  • #

    Performance of Australia’s Wind Turbines for April

    Average performance for the month was calculated from the MW values of the peaks and troughs from the AMEO site. This estimate is 24% for the 39 Windfarms of 3668 MW rated capacity; the previous month it was 23%.

    There were significant periods of both high and low production.

    Estimates were:
    1500 MW 17%

    Maximum production figures (>2000 MW) were 2,200, 2400 and 2440 MW, and minimum figures (<250 MW) were 100, 100, 120, 180, 200, 210, and 220 MW.
    These values represent 64% capacity on three occasions and 4% capacity on 7 occasions.

    Looking at the monthly production curves one can see they are correlated with the frontal systems which move from West to East.

    This is the problem for renewable energy zealots that it cannot provide 24/7 power and back-up generation is mandatory to avoid blackouts. Replacing the coal stations with 15,000 MW of wind turbines would give you:
    1,000 MW or less 48% of the time,
    4,000 MW or less 73% of the time
    6,000 MW or more only 17% of the time
    These are real data, not political hyperbole.

    Based on the March and April data 30% of the time the average production is 250 MW (out of 3668 MW). Therefore to produce the 15,000 MW requirement with these wind conditions would mandate:
    15,000 x 3668/250 = 220,000 MW of wind turbines, or 55,020 4 MW units occupying approx. 7,000 sq. km. of land.

    On a windy day, 17 % of the time, they would produce more than 220,000 x 1500/3668 MW or approx 90,000 MW.

    These scenarios demonstrate the impracticality of wind energy for 24/7 electricity; in the first instance a large number of turbines to cover for light wind conditions which occur about 30% of the time, and when it windy the large excess of production unless they are feathered. As well they necessitate very large tracts of suitable (coastal) land which in turn gives many other problems.

    100

    • #

      For some reason the production figures didn’t post though I previewed the submission.
      They were , 1500 MW 17%

      40

    • #

      With the current frontal system passing the wind turbines are producing up to 2600 MW ( 80%), as high as I have ever seen them. With 220,000 Mw capacity what would you do with 167,000 MW being produced?

      10

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Robert O:

      As turbines get bigger they have to be spaced further apart to reduce the impact of turbulence. The practical limit is about 2MW per sq. km. regardless of size, so your ” 220,000 MW of wind turbines, or 55,020 4 MW units occupying approx. 7,000 sq. km. of land” would require around 110,000 sq. km.
      But your conclusion that the idea is impractical is quite correct.

      70

      • #

        Graeme, not sure why I put a low figure, probably needed another coffee.

        Anyhow, inspite of various projections about windpower and the impossibility of it ever providing 24/7 power both political have renewables as a major policy item. On Insiders this morning all the commentators were waffling on about renewable energy. I think they even quoted Dr. Hewson a well known expert on the subject.

        If you go to solar on the AEMO site you will see that the 2 solar plants will provide 100 MW of electricity between 10 am. and 2 pm. and a little either side and nothing after 5 pm. until 7 am. So what chance is there of solar providing electricity for the peak periods around 7-8 am. and 5-7 pm even if one covered the state of S. Aust. with solar panels?

        There is a total media blackout on anyone putting up a contrary opinion on the subject, more or less as per Herr Goebbels if you repeat it often enough people will believe it.

        It’s a sad state of affairs really.

        50

        • #
          ROM

          Somebody of a scientific background is finally starting to do the sums and analysis on the true state of the Solar ie; Photo Voltaic power [ PV ] ratios of “Energy Returned on Energy Invested” [ ERoEI ] for solar power in Europe.

          Their conclusions; via P.Gosselins NoTricksZone blog.

          Devastating Finding: New Study Deems Solar PV Systems In Europe “A Non-Sustainable Energy Sink”!

          The paper’s abstract states:

          Many people believe renewable energy sources to be capable of substituting fossil or nuclear energy.
          However there exist very few scientifically sound studies, which apply due diligence to substantiating this impression.
          In the present paper, the case of photovoltaic power sources in regions of moderate insolation is analysed critically by using the concept of Energy Return on Energy Invested (ERoEI, also called EROI).
          But the methodology for calculating the ERoEI differs greatly from author-to-author.
          The main differences between solar PV Systems are between the current ERoEI and what is called the extended ERoEI (ERoEI EXT).
          The current methodology recommended by the International Energy Agency is not strictly applicable for comparing photovoltaic (PV) power generation with other systems.
          The main reasons are due to the fact that on one hand, solar electricity is very material-intensive, labour-intensive and capital-intensive and on the other hand the solar radiation exhibits a rather low power density.

          So is solar energy a worthwhile alternative in places like Europe?
          The authors conclude that it is not.
          They write in the conclusion that “an electrical supply system based on today’s PV technologies cannot be termed an energy source, but rather a non-sustainable energy sink” and that “it has become clear that photovoltaic energy at least will not help in any way to replace the fossil fuel“.

          The authors add that “photovoltaic technology would not be a wise choice for helping to deliver affordable, environmentally favourable and reliable electricity regions of low, or even moderate insolation“.

          Sounds like much of Europe has wasted very huge sums of money.

          ————–
          To draw a Southern Hemisphere equivalent;

          The 50 degree North Parallel of Latitude runs through the English Channel, across the middle of Germany and through Ukraine, Kazakhstan, northern Mongolia and the northern tip of Manchuria and then through southern Canada just north of the USA border .
          .

          The 50 degree south Latitude runs very roughly about 300 kms south of New Zealand’s South Island, through Patagonia in the very south of the South American continent and then just north of the Falkland Islands and on to about 1600 kms south of the southern tip of South Africa.
          .

          This is the equivalent Southern Hemisphere latitude to that in the Northern Hemisphere along which the Germans in particular and the Europeans in general are promoting the use of Solar as a replacement renewable energy source for fossil fueled power generation.

          The renewable energy promoting, coal hating fanatics, the green sleaze and nearly all of the european politicians must be stark raving mad and completely ignorant of realities to even think, let alone believe, that solar power at those latitudes will have any perceivable impact or be an energy generating replacement for their fossil fuel generators and their very high per capita consumption of energy for their industry and domestic needs.

          60

          • #
            tom0mason

            ROM
            I would assert that as long as wind and solar power can not provide enough concentrated energy make more solar panels or windmills then ‘renewables’ as a name, a concept, and a method for replacing fossil fuels are a non-starters.

            30

            • #
              ROM

              AHH! But “tomOmason” you obviously don’t understand how Renewable Energy systems will actually work.

              It is about time you skeptics got over your hang ups with the old style fossil fuels and started to move with the times.

              The brilliant Elon Musk at Tesla has solved all the renewable energy storage problems with his Tesla house batteries and his Tesla car.

              We will ensure under our regime that the Government will decree that Everybody has to buy a Tesla battery and and a Tesla car so that all that wind and solar energy can be stored for use in all those few millions of household owned Tesla household batteries and in the Tesla car batteries and can then be redirected down the grid again when the wind slows down and the Sun doesn’t shine and it is night time.

              All that electrical power from the wind generators and the solar installations stored the in those Tesla batteries can be used to run industry and homes and to build submarines and to do all those other electrical things that are found in the modern office and household when the wind slows down for a few minutes and the days get a bit shorter in winter so the sun shines for a couple of hours less each day.

              Now for the opportunity of a life time!
              I have a very nice Tesla battery powered bridge which I am sure you will want as soon as you see the financial returns from its operations.

              30

              • #
                Graeme No.3

                ROM:

                Since charging any lithium battery would divert my high rate of feed in surplus PV solar into expensive storage, in order to replace my much lower rate of overnight heating, guaranteeing a perpetual loss, I don’t think I will be installing one.

                The other reason is that it won’t work in a blackout, nor for more than a few hours even if there wasn’t one. As a household ‘investment’ lithium batteries are more expensive than starting a wood fire with bank notes.

                40

              • #
                Analitik

                I mentioned in another thread that the California duck curve may have been foreseen by Elon Musk, leading to him getting the Powerwall developed, anticipating the need to reduce the ramp rate caused by the combination of rooftop PV and summer demand. I thought he was merely opportunist but now I wonder if his SolarCity PV company was part of a 2 pronged scheme to take advantage of the stupid Californian renewables commitment.

                Maybe he was always playing a long game in helping drive PV uptake through low pricing (aided by subsidies, as always) to exacerbate the duck curve so that worsening ramp rates REQUIRED distributed storage to be installed on a mass (subsidized) scale to bring the ramp rate back to a manageable level. After all, Calfornia’s government isn’t about to admit they made a colossal mistake and force people to remove existing PV capacity.

                Is Elon Musk that crafty?

                10

              • #
                tom0mason

                ROM,

                Sorry I misunderstood you’ve made it all as clear as frosted glass.
                Battery power! Lithium-ion batteries were first proposed by M.S. Whittingham at Binghamton University, at Exxon, in the 1970s. Whittingham used titanium(IV) sulfide as the cathode and lithium metal as the anode.

                10

    • #
      Analitik

      The capacity factor for SE Australia’s farms has been sitting around 90% all afternoon today – I wonder how long it will last (and what the wholesale price is)?

      20

      • #

        The wind picked up a little on May 1 and has been quite high for a day or so: 3200 MW for 3669 MW capacity is as high as I have seen for the last two months. I’ll do the sums at the end of the month. The two Tas. wind farms (300 MW) are helping them keep the lights on but I noted last week the dams had dropped slightly, even with diesel coming on line. They are also talking about another cable but nothing on the cable repair. Ironic, more wind helps their turbines but makes it harder for repair work in windy Bass Strait.

        10

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          This week should start the dam levels rising.
          I don’t think that they will make the same mistake (of reducing the dam levels before summer ) again, but of course I cannot rule out them making other mistakes.
          Unlike South Australia where they are are pushing ahead with mistakes because disaster hasn’t happened yet.

          00

        • #
          Analitik

          Well the ar$e has dropped out of the wind in Northern Eastern Tasmania, going by the wind generation capacity at Musselroe dropping from over 95% down to 5% between 9pm and 11pm.

          Mainland wind generation is still powering along around 90% which is as stable as I can ever remember over a period this long. Let’s see what happens when the cold front crosses the coast in a few hours, though.

          00

          • #

            Saw that, but have a look at the solar generation today, Royalla’s 20 MW was OK, but at Nyngan it must have been cloudy, down to 30-40% between 9 am and 3 pm.

            00

          • #

            There seems to be some discrepancy if you look at BOM’s wind speeds. Blowing a gale at King Is. 60 kph and 76 kph at Smithton and yet the turbines don’t show it. More interesting is the NSW windfarms are only getting 20-25 kph and are producing flat-out. See what happens when the front passes.

            10

            • #

              In very high winds, the turbines have to ‘feather’ to prevent overspeeed damage. They have a (narrower than you would like) range in which they work. Too slow a wind, no power, too high a wind, no power… It’s a design goal…

              20

              • #

                And as old a problem as wind power. Sailors take down or change sails when the wind is too strong. Windmills shut down completely so that the whole structure does not fly apart with grind stones and gigantic oak beams flying over the countryside.

                00

              • #

                Seems that the turbines need about 15kph of wind to turn and about 40 kph they are achieving max. production. Looking at BOM the max. wind speed was 80 kph with this front, but its effect is now diminishing. With the Musselroe Bay turbines they must have feathered them as there was plenty of wind.

                With a twin engine plane the drag of an windmilling prop is large and one has to feather them quickly with engine failure.

                00

  • #
    doubtingdave

    As a long time follower of sceptical science blogs , especially this one , I would like to ask what is the future ? I must admit that I have not been paying as much attention to sceptical blogs lately than I normally would , instead I have been following the election in America , it has always been my believe that American politics and the American Dollar has driven global warming narrative across the world , for me , both the democrats and the Republicans are two wings on the same orthodox bird and dance to the tune of the same donors , but now we have a sceptic running for President that takes money from no special interest group , if he wins he will attack government institutions such as the EPA over their corrupt regulations and also the government controlled scientific bodies such as NASA and force them to show their data , we all know that the global warming narrative is built on a house of cards , so if Donald Trump becomes President and begins to bring that house down , what is the future for sceptical sites like Jo Nova ? what direction do you take JO ?

    50

    • #
      bobl

      Plenty of other topical science to follow Dave, medicine, energy, astronomy, tectonics are always interesting topics

      20

    • #
      Another Ian

      Dave

      I suspect it will take a while and there will be spectacular blogging opportunities on its way down.

      And by then there will be other areas that need “scrutenising with a very intense scrut”

      30

  • #

    Again the same problem.
    1500 MW 17%

    20

  • #

    I’ll try again, less than 500 MW thirty one percent of the time, 500-1000 MW twenty seven percent, 1000-1500 MW twenty five percent, more than 1500 MW seventeen percent.

    40

  • #
    handjive

    Predicting the future aint what it used to be …

    Newsweek
    Bugs About Beatles
    February 24, 1964

    The article inside about the four musicians we know as John, Paul, George and Ringo is called “George, Paul, Ringo and John.”
    Go figure.

    And, boy, did Newsweek just not get it. They started that article like this:

    “Visually they are a nightmare: tight, dandified, Edwardian-Beatnik suits and great pudding bowls of hair.
    Musically they are a near-disaster: guitars and drums slamming out a merciless beat that does away with secondary rhythms, harmony, and melody.
    Their lyrics (punctuated by nutty shouts of “yeah, yeah, yeah!”) are a catastrophe, a preposterous farrago of Valentine-card romantic sentiments.”

    The big question in the music business at the moment is: will the Beatles last?

    The odds are that, in the words of another era, they’re too hot not to cool down, and a cooled-down Beatle is hard to picture.

    It is also hard to imagine any other field in which they could apply their talents, and so the odds are that they will fade away, as most adults confidently predict.”

    40

    • #
      Another Ian

      Handjive

      Closer to home and from the man himself.

      A while ago Ray Hadley was interviewing Graham Connors. And Graham fessed up that he had been offered “Rhinestone Cowboy” and declined around 12 months before Glen Campbell put it into the hits

      20

    • #

      In the 60′s when The Beatles were at their zenith, that British Invasion (as the Americans called it, because we just referred to it as our music) threw up a bewildering array of new artists, male and female, and bands, and after one and sometimes two hits, some were classified as ‘the new Beatles’, and yet they faded away, and hindsight tells us why.

      With a lot of bands in those days, the record companies were not all that keen to let them loose in the studio, so an awful lot of songs were done with session musicians, more commonly in the U.S. but also in the UK as well.

      The Beatles however just went at it and did it all themselves, and pumped out songs, some written in hours and even minutes, song after song after song, something no other band could even emulate let alone surpass.

      Why was that?

      Simple really.

      Three or four trips to Berlin, most of them in the red light district. They would play sometimes all night, not just one or two sets, but from 7PM till usually 4AM. They would then sleep for a few hours, get up, eat, practice, and write songs of their own. Playing all day for weeks and weeks and weeks on end, day and night.

      Doing that, they got to know their musical instruments like you could not even imagine. They knew each others ways of playing and they did it so well together.

      Come back to The Cavern, play there, sometimes on the same rota as in Berlin, and then back to Berlin.

      By the time they finally got their contract, they were masters, and no other band had that sort of background.

      Practice practice practice. Play play play. All day. All night.

      They were more ready than any other band or artist at the time.

      That’s why they were so good.

      Look at the top albums of all time, and right near the top and at the top are Rubber Soul, Revolver, Peppers, White, Let It Be, and Abbey Road, still, to this day.

      They actually stopped doing live shows early, not because of the noise, but because they knew that their music was so complex, it couldn’t be done Live, so all their work was done in the Studio.

      We look back now and wonder how they did it. True, there may have been genius, without fraction of doubt, but those years in Berlin gave them their background.

      Tony.

      70

  • #
    AndyG55

    A VERY INTERESTING article from Paul’s site, about IPCC corruption of science by the political agenda.

    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/04/30/how-corrupt-is-government-climate-science/#comments

    A pdf is downloadable and deserves much more scrutiny by someone that understands political speak.

    A little snippet to wet the appetite…

    “In keeping with past practice in WG I, it is essential that the chapters not be finalized prior to the completion of discussions “at the IPCC WG I plenary in Madrid, and that chapter authors be prevailed upon to modify their text in an appropriate manner following discussion in Madrid.”

    102

  • #
    el gordo

    Its funny how we see Turnbull as one of them, whereas they see him as a turncoat.

    ‘The Labor renewables policy will be one of the defining points of this year’s election, partly because it defines Labor. But more powerfully because it illuminates Turnbull and what he has become as he opposes more and more of what he once believed.

    ‘It brings his transformation from Malcolm Turnbull to Tony Abbott closer to completion.’

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/new-malcolm-turnbull-becomes-the-old-tony-abbott-on-climate-20160429-goi8sc.html#ixzz47LhsqkeZ
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

    30

    • #
      TdeF

      Is this a misdirection piece from the SMH? The fact is that Malcolm based his political career on an ETS as Environment minister who took an ETS to the last Howard election. In 2010 Malcolm outrageously crossed the floor of parliament against the Abbott led Liberals to vote for an ETS?

      Since his coup, Malcolm has said and done nothing about carbon taxes and no one has even asked, certainly not the ABC or Fairfax. Now we are even told by the SMH that Malcolm is channeling his inner Abbott. Ridiculous. The real Malcolm has not appeared yet because he wants every Liberal and Nationals vote. The only question is how he will control the senate. There is only one answer.

      80

      • #
        Dennis

        More about Malcolm, he lectured the ALP after they dumped their first term as prime minister leader, Kevin Rudd. In Parliament the now PM said that what Labor had done was wrong.

        How could we trust anything that man says?

        130

        • #
          TdeF

          The SMH article is intriguing and not a direct attack on Turnbull but on the Abbott policies he inherited and great praise for Labor’s scheme, especially from another former Liberal leader, John Hewson, now a renewables entrepreneur. If Andrew Peacock was a souffle, Hewson is a light and airy sponge.

          Then significantly “the Greens leader, Richard di Natale, sought to ridicule the Labor plan” and “who is Malcolm Turnbull? Because voters will have to decide who they think he is before they decide whether to trust him.”

          By voters, Hartcher means he would like to see the real Malcolm before the election. He is clearly very frustrated at being told to go easy on the Liberal leader.

          80

          • #
            el gordo

            Fairfax, Guardian, ABC and SBS want Malcolm to throw off the agreement they made with the Nats and risk the consequences, but in the run up to the election he intends staying in the middle.

            50

            • #
              TdeF

              It’s a tricky call for Malcolm and his plotters. They have to keep as many Liberal votes as possible and to keep the Nationals in the coalition until it is too late. The preferences will show how the Liberal/Green coalition will work.

              Then the left journalists will see the real Malcolm. He will do many things like an ETS only once he has power. Gillard promised no carbon tax and an NBN was never mentioned. The new way of doing business, the Green way is to tell people what they want to hear or better still say nothing, get elected, get control of both houses and then do exactly what you want. The business of ‘mandates’ is history. This is about absolute power, given democratically.

              Then it will take at least three years to get rid of Malcolm, but without Labor and the Nationals, Liberals have nowhere to go.

              Any suggestion that Turnbull will betray Liberal voters again will be ignored or pictured as an unbecoming conspiracy. However only a Green coalition gives Turnbull the Senate. The Nationals only have three seats of the 33 seat coalition. So Liberals + Greens = 43 of the 76 seats.

              Malcolm’s argument is that he will get power in both houses for the Liberals. Not the Liberals as we know them, but Malcolm’s Green Liberals. Big government, big debt, big spending.

              He will tell us the Greens are not Union backed and the Unions are the real Liberal opposition and will be wiped out electorally, gifting many seats to the Liberals and the Greens.

              For the Greens, they will be in government again and they will get everything they want, an ETS, Gay marriage, constitution changes, an end to the Royal Family, lots more money for teachers, hospitals, disability, windmills, solar farms and the end of those silly defence costs and 50% renewables so we can keep the coal in the ground.

              Possibly Malcolm will also stop the boat turnbacks, change the constitution to a sorry constitution, close Manus island and make his place in history with a republic. Guess who will be the first President, like a real third world country?

              50

              • #
                TdeF

                Sorry 40 seats, plus the new ones gifted by Malcolm and the Greens removal of small parties plus Xenophon. As many as 46 seats say.

                10

              • #
                bobl

                No Tdef, this time around the public controls the allocation of preferences, while this does end the lottery of the last seat – it does open up the senate to a concerted effort by minority parties to a first preference seat using above the line preferancing. The ALA might just become the beneficiary of disillusionment by conservatives as they preference ALA ahead of Lib to protest. This happens in house seats all the time, and the senate ballot above the line is a lot like house voting.

                Protest against Labor will leak to the greens.

                00

        • #
          Another Ian

          Another view at #1.1.6

          00

  • #
    Pauly

    More bad news about the effectiveness of renewable energy in Europe, from NoTricksZone today:

    Devastating Finding: New Study Deems Solar PV Systems In Europe “A Non-Sustainable Energy Sink”!

    http://notrickszone.com/#sthash.MqOJpO91.ZKhi2YHp.dpbs

    The study is paywalled, but the abstract says it all.

    60

    • #
      TdeF

      Only “wasted tens of billions of euros”? Not hundreds?

      Also this fascination with ‘studies’ to establish where solar is adequate? It is self evidently an absurd idea.

      To quote our former salaried Climate Commissioner Dr Will Steffen, Industrial Chemist, there is enough sunlight on Victoria to provide double the power required. The problem is that you would have to cover half the state in Solar panels and put up with no power at night and nowhere to live and this at a cost of trillions of dollars. Clearly an expert.

      Most of Europe is below the latitude of Melbourne, so long dark very cold winters and far less sunlight and smaller area and massively higher population densities with buildings packed six deep. Cities like London, Paris and Rome are each half the population of Australia and still only 1/5th of the population. Who needs a (peer reviewed) study to know that solar is nonsense? A calculation on the back of an envelope would show solar is absurd in Europe and North America and Canada. That is not to say that a huge solar farm could not power Las Vegas, but both ideas embody absurd waste.

      90

      • #

        The total bill for the Energiewende is estimated at close to 2 trillion Euros by 2022.

        The bills add up quickly. German business weekly Wirtschaftswoche last week reported that stopping wind turbines from producing too much electricity cost consumers 600 million Euros in 2015. (via AchGut)

        Wind turbines operators are requested and PAID to stop generating when the conventional power generators cannot reduce their output quickly and far enough in response to a surge in wind power. Got that? Not only do they get subsidies and relaxation of conservation laws to build potential, excess capacity; when such capacity is in excess, they get paid at a rate of what would notionally have been produced. Meanwhile, they do not have to pay for failing to produce when there is demand.

        Who needs crony capitalism when you can elect gullible idealogues?

        Gas is too expensive to use for spinning reserve in Germany (partly because they refuse to exploit their own natural resources by fraccing) and the lignite is too cheap not to use; with excess power taken away by electricity-hungry neighbours; for a small fee. i.e.

        cost of gas > costs of (lignite + coal firing + export excess)

        80

  • #
    KTWO

    The remarks about gold reminded me of the old idea that gold reserves are a superstition. If all the reserves simply vanished but the news never leaked out what would change?

    Other: I believe newer batteries can eventually solve the problem of intermittent wind and solar. But smaller, safer nuclear will arrive and prevail anyway.

    41

    • #
      AndyG55

      “I believe …… ” wow, that’s helpful for planning.

      What we do know is that upgrading our current coal fired power stations will ensure a solid, reliable, cheap, and clean electricity supply for at least another 50 years.

      142

      • #
        Dennis

        I sense a disaster heading our way, The Age Of Abundance is ending or has already ended and there appears to be a new natural Earth Cycleof cooling on the way.

        How could wind turbines and solar systems cope?

        61

        • #
          Analitik

          Only if we keep heading down The 3rd Way and ignore those energy technologies which actually work

          51

          • #
            AndyG55

            In a way, Australia is somewhat lucky.

            We are quite a bit “behind” in destroying our coal fired electricity supply systems (except SA), thank goodness.

            We haven’t brought into the no-alternative junk supply systems in any great way nor is there likely to be any major change in the next several years.

            There are not the government funds available to follow Shorten’s maniacal wind and solar farce at any great pace, too many other impossible “wish-list” promises to keep.

            I doubt any government would have the idiocy to just shut down coal fired power and put the country into a several year blackout, not even the Greens, they like their comforts too much. And the unions would go into manic overdrive if all industry and manufacturing were to stop because there was no electricity.

            (Unions and the ALP are so, so INCREDIBLY DUMB, that they are yet to wake up to this reality… soon… we can all hope.)

            If a continued colder period does eventuate, surely sanity and common sense has to prevail, and the AGW farce will be dumped into the circular file where it belongs.

            31

            • #
              AndyG55

              Come to think of it, maybe that is the way to start to remedy this ridiculous situation.

              Contact the Union bosses and say something like….

              “Hey, dopey drawers, if Shorten brings in a ETS, that will push electricity prices up, and industries that employ YOUR members, will shut down and send that employment over seas”

              I mean, I know Union bosses don’t give a rat’s ars* about their members, but once they wake and realise that unpaid members means no union dues… maybe, just maybe they will start pressuring Short-on-brains to drop his ridiculous GREEEEEEEN agenda.

              61

              • #
                Analitik

                You give way to much credit to the Greens and most of the left wing population if you think they understand the pricing and intermittency issues. Most are convinced by the 100% renewables studies that I brought up in a couple of recent threads that 50% renewables electricity or even energy is feasible. The fact that wholesale electricity prices go negative when renewables hit high capacity factors convinces a LOT of people that renewables make electricity cheaper.

                It will take the total failure of the SA grid either this summer or the next to bring reality home.

                30

              • #
                Graeme No.3

                Meanwhile the evening news brings footage of the third flood in 3 weeks to the citizens of one street. This should not be confused with the other street with 3 floods in 3 weeks, previously shown. Adelaide-Australia’s burst water main capital.

                Then with the almost certain prospect of electricity blackouts in summer.

                40

    • #
      Another Ian

      “Then there is hope. But hope is not a strategy”. E.M. Smith

      20

  • #
    el gordo

    Not a word on the STR stuck in the Bight.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary/

    30

    • #
      handjive

      ‘Perilous’: Outgoing Bureau of Meteorology boss Rob Vertessy exits with climate warning

      The bureau now had “the world’s best water information service”, including precise stream-flow forecasting, that boasts a return on investments of between twofold and ninefold, despite the early stage of many projects, Dr Vertessy, a hydrologist by training, said.
      . . .
      Sure. Whatever …

      20

      • #
        el gordo

        The ABC temperature graph is very scary, I was under the impression that we are on a plateau, a hiatus of some kind. Nice propaganda by Matthew.

        10

    • #
      el gordo

      A positive SAM is climate change, which is why BoM doesn’t want to say too much about the Subtropical Ridge.

      https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/marshall-southern-annular-mode-sam-index-station-based

      Its negative feedback and seriously threatens their belief system.

      10

    • #
      el gordo

      ‘After confining bursts of strong westerly winds (strong cold fronts) to Antarctica recently, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is now allowing fronts to penetrate further north, affecting southern Australia.

      ‘As a result, fronts are moving through every two days or so. Wind will ease later tomorrow once a high pressure system begins to take over. However, wind should strengthen again later in the week due to another two fronts impacting during Thursday and next weekend.’

      Weatherzone

      10

  • #
    • #
      Analitik

      Hey, they had to do it to reduce their carbon output – just don’t look at how their CANDU reactors and hydro already had Ontario’s electrical supply at very modest carbon output levels.

      This all assumes CAGW is a reality, of course.

      30

    • #
      Dennis

      New South Wales Labor when last in government over sixteen years sold half of the state owned electricity private company assets at a loss of $6.1 billion below the lowest estimated market value.

      And it was also revealed that after repaying debt that was arranged to enable the state government to receive higher dividend payments from the electricity companies all that was left from the $5.9 billion sale of assets was $800 million.

      Our elected representatives play political games, have short term vision and are mostly self-centred and greedy.

      I shudder to think how much tax revenue and borrowing has been squandered in Australia at all three levels of government, even accounting only for the decades since WW2.

      30

  • #

    The ACT plans to have all its electrical power supplied 100% from Renewables by 2020 as I mentioned in the earlier Thread at this link, and it has the two links there for those two ABC articles.

    Before we go on, refer to the diagram of a typical Load Curve at this link. This is typical for a small or large town, a small or large city, a Capital city, a region, a State, or for a whole Country, and the load curve for each would be similar to this one. This power is all provided by the grid. ALL power plants are connected to the grid only. In the early AM, from around 3AM till 5AM, virtually 100% of that power being consumed is provided from coal fired power. As consumption increases during the day, other plants come on line to add to the amount required, rising to the peak at around Midday through to around 8PM, and then gradually falling back to the 4AM minimum. All of that power is made available to the grid, and every consumer at any level uses their power from that grid.

    As an average, across a whole year, 85% of all power consumed in Australia is provided by plants which emit CO2, so, fossil fuel plants. So, if you consume power at any level, then 85% of that power comes from fossil fuelled sources. There is no way around that. It just is that way.

    So, to say that the ACT will be getting 100% of its power from renewable sources is just not true. The ACT consumes around 3TWH (3,000GWH) of power each year, around one quarter to a fifth of that being consumed by either Sydney or Melbourne.

    How they get around artfully saying that all their power will come from Renewable sources is that they have done deals with renewable power plants to purchase (some of) the power that they generate. Add up the amounts of power that they have purchased from the now 4 wind plants, and the total might be close to their actual consumption of that 3TWH, but the actual power the ACT is consuming is ….. FROM THE GRID.

    So then, are those actual wind plants in the ACT? Well, no, they’re not.

    Ararat Wind Plant in Victoria – 1000KM from the ACT
    Coonooer Bridge Wind Plant at Bendigo in Victoria – 980KM from the ACT
    Hornsdale Wind Plant near Jamestown in South Australia – 1200KM from the ACT
    Sapphire Wind Plant at Glen Innes in Northern New South Wales – 880KM from the ACT

    I won’t include all individual links to each of those Wind Plants, because too many links will see this Comment in Moderation, but if you type the name of the Plant (the first three words of each plant above) into a search engine, the site for that plant will come up, if you want to read about them, but be aware, each has the usual misleading statements at them that I have mentioned across the years.

    Capacity Factors (CF) vary from 32% at Ararat, to the Hornsdale Plant, which extrapolates out to 44.5%, and the other two are at 35%. The Australian average for all wind plants varies around 25 to a maximum of 30%, so all of these four mentioned plants are overrated, and all those CF are modelled only. Note that one site uses the Australian average household power consumption of 19.5KWH per day, and one uses the local (Ararat) average of 13.5KWH per day, and this is interesting because that low number is for Country areas, and if the Australian average is in the middle, then city consumers use more power than their regional and country consumers do.

    Each of those plants has a sub link indicating that each plant benefits the ….. LOCAL area where the plant is, and as an example, here is the link for the Ararat plant where it specifically states Victorian homes supplied in that wind tower graphic there. You have to search very carefully to find any mention of the ACT at any of the sites, if there is one.

    This is the perfect example of using word semantics to state something which is fundamentally untrue.

    Like every power transmission line everywhere, the power lines into the ACT do not have the ability to allow only the renewable power the ACT has purchased from these four plants into the ACT.

    Can you also see here how a myth is perpetuated, in this case, that the ACT is powered 100% by Renewables, giving the impression that all its power 24/7/365 is supplied by those renewables, when nothing is further from the truth. The fact that the ACT actually has power available on a 24 hour basis for every one of those 365 days is thanks to the grid only, and 85% of grid power IS fossil fuel sourced. So, in effect, the people of the ACT are paying not for renewable power, but for a clever word game only.

    All of what the ACT has done here is untrue on so many different levels.

    If any other entity tried something like this, and then used word semantics to get around the basic untruth of the matter, they would be sued for everything they had.

    100% Renewable. Don’t kid me!

    Tony.

    180

    • #
      TdeF

      With their unlimited cash resources, the ACT will have lower carbon dioxide, thanks to renewables and the incredible generosity of the Australian taxpayers who send all their spare money to Canberra. This is apparently so a select few can enjoy a sustainable low emissions lifestyle and stay cool and safe while the rest of Australia burns. The fact is Canberra is a fantasy place and not sustainable except through the exertions of others.

      80

    • #

      I suppose this could actually fall into the category of useless information something not to be mentioned.

      Approximately 8.5% of all power consumption in the ACT is consumed just by Parliament House.

      That building consumes around 25,800MWH of electrical power each year, so that’s the equivalent of 3700 average Australian homes. At retail, that comes in at around $7 Million.

      Hmm! Now I wonder who pays that electricity bill.

      Keep in mind that’s just for that one building. Imagine all the related buildings (and people) on the Government tab as well.

      Tony.

      120

    • #
      Analitik

      We could make the ACT pseudo 100% renewable with the installation of phase shifting transformers at their borders. Each transformer can be linked to the output of the windfarms contracted to the ACT in that state with the transformer also wound to increase the output voltage by about 10% over input.

      Then power flow to the ACT would basically mirror that being generated by the windfarms and they would have to force curtailment when the farms produce more power than the ACT requires because of the overvoltage they would otherwise have to deal with.

      I think the entertainment value watching the ACT deal with the effects of a totally intermittent supply would just about justify the cost and installation of the phase shifting transformers by the other states.

      40

    • #
      AndyG55

      ACT 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY..

      WITHOUT A SINGLE WIND TURBINE OR SOLAR FARM IN SIGHT :-)

      .
      .
      apologies for the caps.. thought it needed it. ;-)

      51

      • #

        The Royalla Solar Plant (Solar PV) is in the ACT.

        20MW Nameplate, at a modelled 21% CF, delivering a hoped for 37,000MWH of power a year, you know, the same power delivered by Bayswater with all four units running in,umm, 14 HOURS.

        Tony.

        50

    • #

      The ACT example demonstrates two things to me:
      a. The Canberra politicans (and inhabitants) know little about electricity generation.
      b. They are prepared to gild the lily or politely put promulgate fiction.

      10

    • #
  • #
    mem

    When’s a scam not a scam? You have to watch this video interview from a NZ lefty news blog on ETS trading. Apparently NZ companies purchased fraudulent carbon credits from the Ukraine and tendered them to the NZ government which has accepted them even though it knows they are bogus and is now looking to use them to meet its international emissions target. Watch the leftists try and deal with this! What a hoot! Link

    50

  • #
    scaper...

    First wet Sunday in Brisbane for at least six months. No yakking (kayak) today.

    Found this old clip whilst surfing. http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=148_1460883750

    Interesting.

    40

    • #
      Dennis

      Raining here on the New South Wales Mid North Coast too.

      30

    • #
      Annie

      We brought heavy rain to our part of Victoria on Friday. We are the rainmakers, with rain in Dubai just before we arrived there, heavy, long-lasting thunderstorm over much of Cyprus as we arrived there, slight rain in Dubai while back there last week and now all this lovely stuff here!

      40

  • #
    pat

    29 Apr: WSJ: The Climate Police Escalate
    A subpoena hits a think tank that resists progressive orthodoxy
    Sometimes we wonder if we’re still living in the land of the free. Witness the subpoena from ***Claude Walker, attorney general of the U.S. Virgin Islands, demanding that the Competitive Enterprise Institute cough up a decade of emails and policy work, as well as a list of private donors.
    Mr. Walker is frustrated that the free-market think tank won’t join the modern church of climatology, so he has joined the rapidly expanding club of Democratic politicians and prosecutors harassing dissenters.
    New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman started the assault last autumn with a subpoena barrage on Exxon Mobil…
    Mr. Walker belongs to this climate prosecution club and so he unleashed his subpoena attack on CEI, as well as on DCI Group, a Washington-based PR firm that represents free-market and fossil fuel groups. His demand for a decade’s worth of papers on climate research is a form of harassment. The process is itself punishment, intended to raise the cost of speaking freely on climate policy lest it invite legal bills and other political headaches.
    Mr. Walker is also over the line in demanding the names of nonprofit CEI’s donors, who can remain secret under federal law. Anyone on the list will become a new target for the Schneiderman climate posse.
    CEI has filed to quash the subpoena, and the nonprofit has hired attorneys Andrew Grossman and David Rivkin, who recently founded the Free Speech in Science Project to defend First Amendment rights against government abuses. The project is much needed…
    This is a dangerous turn for free speech, and progressives ought to be the first to say so lest they become targets for their own political heresies. Rather than play defense, the targets of the climate police need to fight back with lawsuits of their own.
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-climate-police-escalate-1461968775

    ***8 Apr: ClimateDepot: Marc Morano: Virgin Island AG claim: ‘We have documents showing’ oil companies want ‘melt’ of polar caps to drill more oil
    ATTORNEY GENERAL WALKER: “Vice President Gore, one of my heroes, I must say. […] And, it’s troubling that as the polar caps melt you have companies that are looking at that as an opportunity to go and drill, to go and get more oil. Why? How selfish can you be? Your product is destroying this earth, and your strategy is let’s get to the polar caps first so we can get more oil to do what? To destroy the planet further? And, we have documents showing that. So, this is very troubling to us and we will continue our fight.”
    Press Conference
    Office of NY Attorney General Schneiderman
    March 29, 2016
    http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/04/08/virgin-island-ag-claim-we-have-documents-showing-oil-companies-want-melt-of-polar-caps-to-drill-more-oil/

    30

  • #
    pat

    more on Claude Walker:

    US Virgin Islands DOJ: OFFICE OF THE ATTORNEY GENERAL
    Claude Earl Walker was born in England to Clyde and Mayda Walker, but raised in New York City, where he excelled in the New York City public schools in debating and the arts…
    Upon departing from the Territory, a few weeks before Hurricane Marilyn, he served as an Assistant Corporation Counsel for the City of Newark Law Department, where he regularly appeared in New Jersey Superior Court. Shortly thereafter, he moved to Washington, D.C. to serve as Enforcement Counsel for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Regulatory Enforcement, where he brought environmental enforcement actions against violators of a number of federal laws pertaining to toxics and pesticides.
    He was later appointed to manage EPA’s national enforcement lead-based paint program, which included bringing the first set of administrative cases against violators of EPA’s childhood lead poisoning law, and authored the law review article entitled “EPA’s Enforcement of the Lead-Based Paint Rule” published in the Buffalo Environmental Law Journal…
    http://usvidoj.codemeta.com/DivisionContent_1.php?divId=84

    10

  • #
    pat

    29 Apr: Politico: America Rising targets Steyer
    By Gabriel Debenedetti
    Democratic mega-donor Tom Steyer and other leading environmentalists like Bill McKibben are the targets of an expensive new negative campaign from America Rising Squared, the 501c4 arm of Republican opposition research group America Rising.
    Launched Friday, the push will include a deployment of trackers with video cameras to follow the activists, a significant effort to research them and their work, a six-figure digital ad campaign focused on social media, and a website — corenews.org — that will serve as a hub for the group’s content…
    The announcement comes just days after Steyer and his NextGen Climate Action super PAC launched a $25 million effort to mobilize youth voters in swing states…
    “Tom Steyer made a fortune investing in oil and coal, and now he’s dumping an unprecedented amount of money into political causes which promise to increase the value of his latest investments in ‘green energy,’” said America Rising Squared Executive Director Brian Rogers in a statement. “America Rising Squared will hold Steyer and the Environmentalist Left accountable for their epic hypocrisy and extreme positions which threaten America’s future prosperity.”…
    The first video (LINK) of the campaign zeroes in on Steyer, but also includes both Democratic presidential candidates…
    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/america-rising-targets-steyer-222617

    ***from a “stupid idiot”?

    28 April: Guardian: Dana Nuccitelli: Can the Republican Party solve its science denial problem?
    Evolution and climate science denial are predominant on the political right; there is no equivalent on the left
    There’s a widespread misconception about science denial – that on issues like the safety vaccines and genetically modified foods (GMOs), denial is found predominantly on the political left, mirroring the denial of evolution and climate science on the political right. This assumption has even been presented on The Daily Show, but it’s supported by precious little evidence…
    A 2013 paper by Stephan Lewandowsky BLAH BLAH…
    Conservative trust in science has steadily declined…
    This rising distrust of science is particularly high among higher-educated conservatives, in what’s been coined the ***“smart idiot” effect…
    Indeed, authoritarians favor Donald Trump, whose supporters have considerable overlap with climate science denial…
    However, there is good news. For one, climate denial is largely limited to a small and dwindling group of old, white, male conservatives…
    The party’s chosen path has also resulted in the Donald Trump candidacy, which has GOP leadership in a panic…
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2016/apr/28/can-the-republican-party-solve-its-science-denial-problem

    ***Dana links to this “smart-idiot” piece:

    Feb 2014: Salon: The ugly delusions of the educated conservative
    Better-educated Republicans are more likely to doubt global warming and believe Obama’s a Muslim. Here’s why
    Chris Mooney, Alternet
    This essay originally appeared on AlterNet. It is adapted from Chris Mooney’s forthcoming book, “The Republican Brain: The Science of Why They Deny Science—and Reality,” due out in April from Wiley…
    Someone had sent me a 2008 Pew report documenting the intense partisan divide in the U.S. over the reality of global warming…
    This was my first encounter with what I now like to call the “smart idiots” effect: The fact that politically sophisticated or knowledgeable people are often more biased, and less persuadable, than the ignorant. It’s a reality that generates endless frustration for many scientists—and indeed, for many well-educated, reasonable people.
    And most of all, for many liberals.
    Let’s face it: We liberals and progressives are absolutely outraged by partisan misinformation…(LOL LOL LOL)
    http://www.salon.com/2012/02/24/the_ugly_delusions_of_the_educated_conservative/

    20

  • #
    Analitik

    Someone at the ABC is getting fed up with politcial correctness. Have a closer look at the URL below and then look at the linked article (about Tas Hydro spending on media consultants as part of dealing with their current situation)

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-29/tasmania-hydro-spends-thousands-on-spin-doctor/7369286

    70

    • #

      Actually the dam levels stabilised the week before, but dropped again last week. A bit of rain and a few MW from the wind turbines, or more diesel on line probably explains the pause.

      20

  • #
    pat

    comment #15 is in moderation.

    [I approved it as soon as I read it.] AZ

    read all – can’t see any attribution:

    30 Apr: Australian: Danish consumers pay big and long to subsidise wind turbines
    Ever since the first small wind turbines began supplying electricity to the grid in Denmark, the Danes again and again were told that the industry for only a few years needed financial support — then wind turbines with the usual depreciation rules would be able to compete in equal footing with other electricity-generating energy. It is now four decades ago that the so-called “wind turbine adventure” began and Danish consumers pay today more than ever in direct and indirect financial support to wind turbines. Not only that: according to Eurostat, Danish consumers pay (by) far the highest electricity prices in Europe: 2.28 krone (45c) per kilowatt hour compared with an EU average of 1.55 krone.
    This reality saw the Minister for Climate and Energy, Lars Christian Lilleholt, note that the bill for the so-called “green transition” is rampant. This applies to the aid which will be needed for … proposed and strongly disputed coastal wind turbines.
    The government believes it may become necessary to establish more onshore wind turbines, which does not reduce the problem, due especially to the destructive, low-frequency noise. New calculations show that public subsidies paid by electricity consumers via the so-called Public Service Order tax will skyrocket if you follow plans to establish a large number of up to 200m high wind turbines in coastal areas…
    It is certain that it is not possible to lie to the people forever that wind turbines can compete on equal footing with other forms of energy when the reality is that wind power for eternity will require billions in direct and indirect support.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/danish-consumers-pay-big-and-long-to-subsidise-wind-turbines/news-story/f325bf64189961bfd2946e305d420e5e

    30

  • #

    And yet it’s okay for the ABC to spin doctor reports that ACT will have 100% renewables by 2020.

    Tony.

    Umm, Moderators, my comment on this at Comment 12 is in moderation, probably due to length and the three links. Sorry to raise it.

    [I approved it as soon as I read it.] AZ

    30

  • #
    pat

    to be voted on May 16:

    20 Apr: BuffaloNews:Thomas J. Prohaska: Town of Lockport seeks wind turbine regulations
    LOCKPORT – The Town Board wants to regulate noncommercial wind turbines.
    The board decided Wednesday to hold a public hearing at 7:30 p.m. May 4 on a proposed law that would restrict the height and location of wind power installations.
    “This will not apply to commercial wind energy systems. They are not permitted in the town under our current zoning,” Town Attorney Michael J. Norris said.
    The proposed law would limit the height of wind turbines to 165 feet and allow them only in the town’s agricultural, agricultural-residential or industrial zones. There would be a limit of two turbines per lot, and the property owner would be required to have at least 10 acres of land for each turbine.
    The tower would have to be at least 500 feet from any house and at least 750 feet from any school, park or residential property line, unless the neighbor agreed to waive that setback.
    The wind power generated by the turbine would have to be used on-site, and the Planning Board would have to approve a site plan and special permit for any turbine…ETC
    http://www.buffalonews.com/city-region/lockport/town-of-lockport-seeks-wind-turbine-regulations-20160420

    22 Apr: Recharge: Bernd Radowitz: Second German state plans wind turbine distance regulation
    A second German state, Rhineland-Palatinate, plans to introduce a distance rule for wind developments that is likely to slow down the renewable source’s rapid expansion in the inland region…
    http://www.rechargenews.com/wind/1430483/second-german-state-plans-wind-turbine-distance-regulation

    10

  • #
    David Maddison

    There was a program on ABC RN this morning about ethanol fuel and how an ethanol company has given donations to political parties in NSW. This had nothing to do, of course, with proposed legislation in NSW making the sale of ethanol fuel compulsory…

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/backgroundbriefing/2016-05-01/7367496

    60

    • #
      Dennis

      Several years ago after returning from a few days fishing in Hervey Bay Queensland, Fraser Island North area, I topped up the 160 litre petrol tank on my boat by mistake with Ethanol mix E10 Petrol, approximately 90 litres topping up Premium Unleaded. I did not use the boat again for some months by which time damage had taken place to the Fuel Pump and lines. After an expensive repair I regretted what I had done.

      Warnings against leaving E10 sitting in fuel tanks for more than several weeks have been issued. Even with PULP I now use an Octane boost additive which increases usable fuel life to about a year or maybe two years maximum.

      Unless an engine is stated by the manufacturer to be capable of using Ethanol mix don’t use it. And if you drive in a manner that produces the best economy I recommend that you stick to PULP 95 or 98 because my testing proved they provide more power, smoother engine running and better fuel economy that offsets the lower E10 pump price.

      I now have a Diesel tow vehicle.

      60

  • #
    pat

    27 Apr: HuffPoCanada: Wind Turbine Highlights Unifor’s Hypocrisy On Noise Hazards
    Meanwhile, a new online petition targets Unifor (Canada’s largest private-sector union, formerly the CAW) for its failure to comply with provincial health and safety protections, specifically noise regulations.
    Unifor owns and operates the controversial CAW Wind Turbine, located on its property in Port Elgin, Ontario on the shore of Lake Huron. The turbine began operation in 2013 to generate money for the union. At the time, the Ministry of the Environment (MOE) approved the turbine on the condition that the Union would conduct noise audits within the first two years of operation and provide MOE with the results.
    Now, as the turbine begins its fourth year of operation, the tests and results are, at a minimum, two years late…
    Unifor’s turbine is located just 210 metres from the nearest home, less than half of the 550-metre distance required by provincial noise regulations. MOE approved Unifor’s turbine after the union had the community’s zoning changed from a rural tourist/recreational classification to city semi-urban to allow for increased noise.
    To further address noise levels, the union stated that its powerful 800kw turbine would operate at just 500kw (despite reduced revenue generation) and that it would self-monitor its operation. Since its startup, Unifor and MOE have received hundreds of noise complaints, day and night, from the nearly 200 families who live within the turbine’s 550-metre radius. Still, the noise testing has not been done.
    Back in 2013, during the turbine’s first six months of operation, 140 noise complaints prompted town council to pass a motion asking the CAW to honour President Ken Lewenza’s commitment to shut down the turbine if it harmed residents. The union dismissed the request…
    Nearby residents have even tried to conduct their own professional tests. But their efforts have been thwarted by MOE guidelines that require Unifor’s participation. So, the families continue to suffer from the turbine’s noise…
    http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/karen-hunter/unifor-wind-tubrine_b_9781936.html

    study for those who haven’t read it previously:

    2013: NCBI: Adverse health effects of industrial wind turbines
    Canadian family physicians can expect to see increasing numbers of rural patients reporting adverse effects from exposure to industrial wind turbines (IWTs). People who live or work in close proximity to IWTs have experienced symptoms that include decreased quality of life, annoyance, stress, sleep disturbance, headache, anxiety, depression, and cognitive dysfunction. Some have also felt anger, grief, or a sense of injustice. Suggested causes of symptoms include a combination of wind turbine noise, infrasound, dirty electricity, ground current, and shadow flicker…ETC
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3653647/

    40

    • #
      KinkyKeith

      Good one Pat.
      This is not about ” noise “, it is a pressure pulsing problem, with dire consequences for human and presumably animal health.

      The pulsing damages the heart_lung system and the regulation of this system by overriding the section of brain providing control.

      Ugly stuff, what humans do to each other to gain wealth and power.
      Kk

      20

  • #
    pat

    28 Apr: Belfast Newsletter: Co Antrim wind turbine catches fire
    PIC: This striking image was captured by an engineer from Northern Ireland Electricity, after he attended the scene of a burning wind turbine in Co Antrim.
    The blaze took place around the Castlecat Road in a part of rural north Antrim called Derrykeighan, a few miles east of Coleraine.
    Two fire engines from Coleraine were dispatched to the scene at around 8.30am, but the fire brigade said that they did not need to take any action when they arrived…
    They said they could not reveal the operator of the turbine, which is believed to be a single unit, not part of a wider wind farm.
    http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-news/co-antrim-wind-turbine-catches-fire-1-7356738

    29 Apr: NY Post: Natalie O’Neill: Weather Channel founder calls Bill Nye ‘a pretend scientist in a bow tie’
    A stormy fight is brewing between Weather Channel founder John Coleman and Bill Nye the Science Guy — who bashed a new movie featuring Coleman that denies the existence of global warming.
    “I have always been amazed that anyone would pay attention to Bill Nye, a pretend scientist in a bow tie,” Coleman said Friday, according to ClimateDepot.com.
    The science smackdown started after Nye shunned the film “Climate Hustle,” which Coleman introduces, and warned viewers not to take it seriously…
    COLEMAN: “As a man who has studied the science of meteorology for over 60 years and received the AMS (American Meteorological Society’s) ‘Meteorologist of the Year’ award, I am totally offended that Nye gets the press and media attention he does. And I am rooting for the ‘Climate Hustle’ film to become a huge hit — bigger than ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ by Al Gore,” Coleman said.
    Coleman also slammed Nye for claiming earlier this month that climate change skeptics should face jail time.
    “That is the most awful thing since Galileo was jailed for saying the Earth was not the center of the Universe,” Coleman said.
    “In 20 or 30 years, when Nye is an old man, he will realize how wrong he was as the Earth continues to be a just a great place to live,” he said…
    http://nypost.com/2016/04/29/weather-channel-founder-calls-bill-nye-a-pretend-scientist-in-a-bow-tie/

    30

  • #
    pat

    29 Apr: ClimateChangeNews: Laurence Tubiana: No time for complacency as Paris climate deal moves to action
    Oil majors need to get their act together and governments ramp up ambition to make UN climate goals a reality
    (Laurence Tubiana is climate change ambassador for France and a candidate to lead the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change)
    After finally securing the holy grail of a new international accord under which all countries will take action to limit their emissions, the norm is now breaking previous world records for multilateral diplomacy…
    Aside from what governments are doing, financial markets are quickly reflecting and adjusting to the new low-carbon paradigm…
    Besides, who would have thought that Larry Fink, CEO of Black Rock, the investment giant, would send a letter to CEOs of the Fortune 500 companies asking that they present him with a long-term business plan consistent with the commitments made in Paris? And what about the carbon disclosure task force of the Financial Stability Board (FSB), and the remarkable leadership of Mark Carney, Michael Bloomberg and others to mainstream the greening of big financial capital?…
    The picture is not entirely rosy. There are also some worrying signs, and we should recognize them. For a start, the fact that oil and gas companies met – in France, just a few months after the Paris Agreement – to discuss technical options for drilling fossil fuel resources located under the Arctic sends entirely the wrong signal…
    And we need to be talking not only about the hundred billions of North-South financial flows, but more so about shifting the trillions of dollars of infrastructure and technology investments necessary to decarbonize the world’s energy systems…ETC
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/04/29/no-time-for-complacency-as-paris-climate-deal-moves-to-action/

    state of play…note India has not signed as yet:

    ClimateAnalytics: Projected Paris Agreement total ratifications in 2016
    16 countries accounting for 0.04% of global emissions ratified the Paris Agreement as of 29 April 2016. A number of other countries indicated that they intend to ratify the Agreement this year. How close will this bring us to crossing the double threshold of 55 countries and 55% global emissions required for an early entry into force of the Agreement?…
    Based on ratifications to date (16) , national statements and indications given to a high level meeting on early ratification in New York on Friday 22 April (21) and other information (2), it is estimated that at least 39 countries are likely to have ratified the Paris Agreement by the end of 2016, accounting for 51.67% of global emissions.
    Under this scenario, a further 16 countries, accounting for at least 3.33% of global emissions, would then be needed for entry into force.
    This could be achieved, for example, with ratification by India (4.10%) – which would provide enough emissions for the 55% global emissions threshold to be crossed – and by another 15 smaller countries in order to meet the 55 country threshold…
    http://climateanalytics.org/hot-topics/ratification-tracker-projections

    20

  • #
    • #
      Analitik

      +1000

      This is an awesome dissection of Malcolm Turnbull and needs to be forwarded to anyone who thinks Turnbull will ever stand for anything other than himself. The similarity to Kevin Rudd is uncanny and deeply troubling.

      30

      • #
        Dennis

        Analitik it is interesting to note that after Turnbull hounded Doctor Brendan Nelson, a medical doctor, from the leadership of the Liberal Party he took on after the 2007 Howard Government defeat Nelson commented that Turnbull is a narcissist.

        I understand that after Rudd became PM he was described as suffering grandiose narcissism.

        Your observation is therefore accurate.

        30

        • #
          Len

          Nelson does not have a doctorate in Medicine. He is a Bachelor of Medicine plus bachelor of Surgery. He is correctly referred to as a medical practitioner.

          10

          • #
            Annie

            Correct Len but the traditional honorific title for a medical practitioner is doctor.

            00

  • #
    pat

    30 Apr: Toronto Sun: Lorrie Goldstein: Carbon pricing’s dirty secret
    Climate Change Minister Glen Murray confirms it’s going to cost us a lot of money
    It’s hard to tell whether it was deliberate or a gaffe — meaning what happens when a politician accidentally tells the truth — but Ontario Climate Change Minister Glen Murray told the truth last week…
    http://www.torontosun.com/2016/04/30/carbon-pricings-dirty-secret

    a laugh from Kluger/Time:

    28 Apr: Time Magazine: Jeffrey Kluger: How Climate Deniers Try to Sow Confusion
    (Jeffrey Kluger is Editor at Large for TIME)
    For the final time, climate change is settled science…
    (12 PARAS LATER)
    Scientific debate never stops…
    (FINALE)
    Climate change is a deadly serious business. Period. There are more than enough debates about the best way to deal with it without playing games about what we know—or about what the people on the other side are saying.
    http://time.com/4308518/climate-change-settled-science/

    00

  • #
  • #
    Mike

    Let’s Stop Pretending Nuclear Power Is Commercially Viable
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-30/lets-stop-pretending-nuclear-power-commercially-viable

    “The real point of this story is that nuclear power is not commercially viable but has become a state-sponsored technology. There is nothing wrong with state supported technology. But we could save a lot of time and money by not pretending that it is something else.”

    27

    • #

      Mike mentions this:

      “The real point of this story is that nuclear power is not commercially viable…..

      I wasn’t going to reply to this, but there needs to be some differentiation between existing plants and new plants.

      (Some of) those newer plants may actually seem to be not economically viable, but when extrapolated out over the projected life of the plant, and the humungous amount of power generated by them, then that economic viability has an attraction the,umm, anti nuclear people very conveniently overlook, maybe because they don’t have the will to go and actually look at what they can provide.

      Many years ago, not long after I started, I got in contact with a man who actually works at one of these plants, The Diablo Canyon Plant in San Luis Obispo in California, and that plant has been in operation since 1986, 30 years now, totally and utterly uneventfully.

      This plant actually holds a record for delivered power from one of its units. They refuel the units every 18 Months, and during one year, it ran continuously, well, continuously for the whole 18 Months in fact, delivering its maximum rated power of 1118MW. During the 12 Month recorded period, this one unit delivered 9,944,983 MWH of power to the California grid, at a Capacity Factor of 101.2%. It wasn’t when the plant was new either, as this was in 2006, when the plant was then 20 years old. That total delivered power is 4% greater than delivered by EVERY wind tower on Australian soil across a whole year, with 3.6 times the Nameplate for that wind power than this Nuke, all of it from just the one unit.

      Now, back to economic viability, and the man I corresponded with. He has worked at this plant since 1992. He has a personal website, and it’s well worth reading, all of it, as the plant itself gets most of the text. I contacted him, because I wanted to use one of his images, that of the Turbine Hall, and you’ll see the image there, and that’s the unit which holds the record.

      He mentions Chernobyl, Three Mile Island and also Fukushima as well, as comparisons, and keep in mind that this Plant is constructed on the fault line and has withstood numerous quakes already, all uneventful.

      Some of the images are just amazing.

      As to the economics of the plant, he mentions this:

      …..but Diablo Canyon power costs less than 1.6 cents per kWh.

      That equates to $16/MWH, the cheapest generated power on the market, and the plant still makes a very healthy profit.

      Read all the text and look at all those images.

      Nuclear power has a bad rap, mainly because the loudest voices preaching the booga booga booga get all the traction.

      Link to site: The Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant

      Tony.

      130

      • #
        Analitik

        And here are the operational figures for the plant – I assume from the capacity you stated that it is Diablo Canyon 2.
        http://www.world-nuclear.org/reactor/default.aspx/DIABLO%20CANYON-2

        This is very impressive but not the only reactor with that level of availability.

        There is a study that shows how in the USA, nuclear plant construction times blew out hugely after the Three Mile Island incident, due to ever increasing regulatory requirements. This has had a significant impact on the cost with similar issues afflicting the EPR projects that are currently being built or proposed.

        Meanwhile, the progress of the AP1000 projects in both China and the USA show that some level of sanity is returning to the industry and costs will be proportionate. As examples, in China, Sanmen 1 and 2 both began construction in 2009 with Sanmen 1 scheduled to begin operating in September this year and Sanmen 2 in early 2017. Meanwhile in the USA, Vogtle 3 and 4 began construction in 2013 and should come online in 2020.

        China has another 20 nuclear reactors currently under construction (2 more being AP1000s).

        30

        • #

          Hey Analitik,

          thanks for that link. (now saved)

          The record is for Unit 1, and your link is for Unit 2.

          History
          Since 1990 – Unit One – Nine of those 25 years at 100% CF for the whole year. Cumulative Lifetime CF 86.3%
          Since 1992 – Unit Two – Ten of those 23 years at 100% CF for the whole year. Cumulative Lifetime CF 87.4%

          The cumulative Lifetime CF includes the down time for refuels, approximately every 18 Months per Unit, so, in effect, they are only turned off for the refuel cycle. That is impressive.

          That’s run the reactor up to critical from the refuel, turn it on, and run the turbine/generator unit at 3600RPM, well, all the time until the next refuel

          In it’s 30 years of operation, this one Plant has delivered 505TWH of Power.

          To deliver that same amount of power, every wind plant in Australia would need to be in operation for, umm, 57 YEARS.

          All of that from just these TWO Units at the one power plant.

          Now tell me renewables are worth the money.

          Tony.

          30

          • #
            Analitik

            Well I based my guess on the capacity that you stated, 1118 MWe, and the start date of 1986.
            Diablo Canyon 2 matches those specifications (Diablo Canyon 1 is 1122 MWe and started commercial operations in 1985)

            Plus Jim’s site isn’t specific about which of the Diablo plants he works.

            But anyway, the point we both are making is the same and is nicely summed up by the closing statement in this Energy Matters post by Roger Andrews

            nuclear power is expensive only if a country chooses to make it so.

            http://euanmearns.com/nuclear-capital-costs-three-mile-island-and-chernobyl/

            10

          • #
            Mike

            Has the cost of decommissioning, and, the cost of removing spent nuclear fuel been included in those qualifications?

            Nuclear plants have a life span. For instance, Chernoble had a definite life span and associated cost.

            http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/gen-comm/gen-letters/1988/gl88005.html

            02

            • #
              Mike

              TonyfromOz:…….”differentiation between existing plants and new plants”……“Existing plants” reaching the end of life?

              02

              • #
                Mike

                Not as though existing nuke plants are immortal like in some belief system.

                What does it cost to decommission and who has to pay for it?

                Chernobyl offers a pretty good answer.

                Thanks

                02

              • #
                Analitik

                Chernobyl 4 was an outdated carbon moderated reactor designed primarily for breeding plutoninum which was run by poorly trained technicians who took it upon themselves to switch off 3 safety systems to run a test they didn’t understand.

                The other 3 reactors continued operation with the last being closed down in 2000.

                http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/chernobyl-accident.aspx

                Please learn some solid facts before posting up more rhetoric.

                40

              • #
                Analitik

                As for decommissioning, it can cost as much as a country wants it to.

                The super expensive way is to perform a “greenfield” immediate dismantlement

                The best option is to remove the core and then intern the site for 40-60 years for the radioactivity in the machinery and structure to decay to safe levels before a normal industrial dismantlement.

                The cheapest option is permanent on site “In situ” entombment, leaving everything on site and encasing in concrete

                http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-wastes/decommissioning-nuclear-facilities.aspx

                https://www.dndkm.org/DOEKMDocuments/BestPractices/26-EFCOG%20Best%20Practice%20-%20SRS%20P%20and%20R%20Reactor%20Basins%20ISD%20Final.pdf

                10

              • #

                The complete decommissioning of all Nuclear power plants is factored in right at day one, when calculations are made as to how much to charge for the electrical power that is generated.

                Originally, it was thought that nuclear power could lead to free electricity, because it would have cost more to meter it than to generate it in the first place. However, at a later date, they then factored in the original construction cost, and then the decommissioning cost, and the (relatively) small cost of the fuel across the years, and still it is far and away the cheapest way to generate electrical power. What needs to be realised here is that the process can drive single generators of 1000MW up to a recent 1800MW, run at a very high CF, and last for up to 50 years plus.

                The use of the broad brush of Chernobyl to relate it to all nuclear power plants is the typical fall back position for all those who know little about the difference between the many types of processes used in the Nuclear power generation process.

                The accident at Three Mile Island in Harrisburg PA is a wonderful example of how little people really know. When it happened, there were a couple of News Editors who, when casting around for people to go and cover it for the Media, actually asked their staff who had seen The China Syndrome, the movie released a couple of weeks before the accident, and any who had were then sent to cover it, and to do it in a manner similar to the movie.

                The article at this link is a good article on both incidents, TMI and Chernobyl.

                Three Mile Island and Chernobyl: What Went Wrong And Why Today’s Reactors Are Safe

                Tony.

                10

              • #

                Incidentally, just in reference to the Diablo Canyon Power Station, and how they can sell their electricity for only 1.6 cents per KWH, just from the sale of that electricity alone to the California grid provides an income for the plant operators of (on average) a tick over $300 Million a year, and after 30 years, just from the sale of electricity alone, that comes in at $9 Billion.

                Tony.

                10

              • #

                IIRC there is a decommissioning levy built into the rate structure, so it’s accrued over the life of the plant. Normal life is expected to be 50 years, though it is possible to do some maintenance / rework and continue. Actual lifetime is unknown as we’ve typically never had one wear out… Bigger better once replaced the earlier little ones for economic reasons (power nearly free is hard to argue with…) and that crop is generally still running (modulo T.M.I. and the panic shutdowns after it like Rancho Seco that was converted to fossil fuels).

                “Spent fuel” isn’t really spent at all. It can be put into molten salt reactors for further use. That we choose to bury it in the ground is just being stupid.

                BTW, that whole “25,000 years to keep it safe” is bogus. That is to reach background radiation levels. If you instead set your limit as “the same as the ore we mined from the ground” it is that safe in a couple of hundred years (and since the dirt was originally just dirt… and not guarded, making it safer than it started out is really a bit of a push…)

                00

            • #
              Mike

              Analitik:

              At what cost and to whom?

              02

              • #

                Ah, found it:

                http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/decommissioning.html#funds

                Decommissioning Funds

                Before a nuclear power plant begins operations, the licensee must establish or obtain a financial mechanism – such as a trust fund or a guarantee from its parent company – to ensure there will be sufficient money to pay for the ultimate decommissioning of the facility.

                Each nuclear power plant licensee must report to the NRC every two years the status of its decommissioning funding for each reactor or share of a reactor that it owns. The report must estimate the minimum amount needed for decommissioning by using the formulas found in 10 CFR 50.75(c). Licensees may alternatively determine a site-specific funding estimate, provided that amount is greater than the generic decommissioning estimate. Although there are many factors that affect reactor decommissioning costs, generally they range from $300 million to $400 million. Approximately 70 percent of licensees are authorized to accumulate decommissioning funds over the operating life of their plants. These owners – generally traditional, rate-regulated electric utilities or indirectly regulated generation companies – are not required today to have all of the funds needed for decommissioning. The remaining licensees must provide financial assurance through other methods such as prepaid decommissioning funds and/or a surety method or guarantee. The staff performs an independent analysis of each of these reports to determine whether licensees are providing reasonable “decommissioning funding assurance” for radiological decommissioning of the reactor at the permanent termination of operation.

                So “who” is the utility (i.e. rate payers) and the how much is about $400 Million per reactor (SWAG – but formula in the link in the original for actual computations based on plant specifics) out of their several $Billion of revenue. Easy peasy… In a sinking fund started at plant start and accumulated in a surity or bond, or if a very large well established megaUtility, they can accumulate a sinking fund over the life of the plant with 2 year check-in.

                00

            • #

              I mentioned earlier that the decommissioning cost is factored in at the start.

              The Diablo Canyon Plant opened in 1985/6, and its cost at the time was $2.2 Billion. Decommissioning costs, factored in at day one are around double the original cost, in this case, around $4.4 Billion.

              Hence we are looking at the cost at Day One just for those two things of $6.6 Billion.

              I mentioned that the plant has already made $9 Billion from the sale of the electricity, and has an operating license until 2029, and from the sale of electricity for the next 13 years, that’s an additional almost $4 Billion.

              Tony.

              10

          • #
            Mike

            Analitic: Safety?? How many wind turbine workers have been slashed by wind turbine blades??

            Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster
            “The struggle to contain the contamination and avert a greater catastrophe ultimately involved over 500,000 workers and cost an estimated 18 billion rubles.[3] During the accident itself, 31 people died, and long-term effects such as cancers are still being investigated

            02

            • #
              Mike

              “as much as a country wants it to.”

              More like as much as a creditor is willing to lend.

              How much are Japanese creditors willing to pay for the Japanese nuke outages??

              Japan readies additional $30 billion for Fukushima clean-up: sources

              http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-tepco-idUSBRE9BJ06I20131220

              http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-fukushima-borrowing-idUSBRE9AB0H520131112

              01

              • #
                Analitik

                Stop thread bombing, do some proper research and come back with proper questions.
                Then we might stop wasting bandwidth with this fruitless exchange

                40

              • #
                ROM

                .

                Deaths per TerraWattHour [ TWH ] by energy source; [ 2010 / 2011 data ]

                Energy Source —————- ——— ——– Death Rate (deaths per TWh)

                Coal (elect, heat,cook –world avg)———-100 (26% of world energy, 50% of electricity)

                Coal electricity – world avg ——————- 60 (26% of world energy, 50% of electricity)

                Coal (elect,heat,cook)– China ———– —- 170

                Coal electricity- China ———————– — 90

                Coal – USA —————————— —— —– 15

                Oil ————– ————— —————— ——-36 (36% of world energy)

                Natural Gas ———— ——————————-4 (21% of world energy)

                Biofuel/Biomass ———- ————————– 12

                Peat —————————————————— 12

                Solar (rooftop) ———— ———————–0.44 (0.2% of world energy for all solar)

                Wind ——————————————————-0.15 (1.6% of world energy)

                Hydro —————————————————– 0.10 (europe death rate, 2.2% of world energy)

                Hydro – world including Banqiao) —– ——1.4 (about 2500 TWh/yr and 171,000 Banqiao dead from the Dam wall burst )

                Nuclear ————– ————————————0.04 (5.9% of world energy)

                .
                Rooftop solar is several times more dangerous than nuclear power and wind power.
                It is still much, much safer than coal and oil, because those have a lot of air pollution deaths.

                edit; These tables of deaths per TWH from each power generating source indicates that Wind is four [ 4 ] times as dangerous as nuclear power.
                And nuclear energy for power production of course, has about Twice to Three times the length of history of wind energy.

                Off shore wind energy not listed here is probably a lot more dangerous than on shore wind which is what is mostly listed here in this 2011 data.

                Solar? They just keep falling off the roofs!

                ————————-

                Summary of Wind Turbine Accident data to 31 March 2016

                The attached detailed table includes all documented cases of wind turbine related accidents and incidents which could be found and confirmed through press reports or official information releases up to 31 March 2016. CWIF believe that this compendium of accident information may be the most comprehensive available anywhere.

                Data in the detailed table attached is by no means fully comprehensive – CWIF believe that what is attached may only be the “tip of the iceberg” in terms of numbers of accidents and their frequency. Indeed on 11 December 2011 the Daily Telegraph reported that RenewableUK confirmed that there had been 1500 wind turbine accidents and incidents in the UK alone in the previous 5 years.
                Data here reports only 142 UK accidents from 2006-2010 and so the figures here may only represent 9% of actual accidents.

                The data does however give an excellent cross-section of the types of accidents which can and do occur, and their consequences. With few exceptions, before about 1997 only data on fatal accidents has been found.

                The trend is as expected – as more turbines are built, more accidents occur. Numbers of recorded accidents reflect this, with an average of 21 accidents per year from 1996-2000 inclusive; 57 accidents per year from 2001-2005 inclusive; 118 accidents per year from 2006-10 inclusive, and 164 accidents per year from 2011-15 inclusive.

                00

  • #
    Another Ian

    With the current furore re coral bleaching on the Barrier Reef check the mention of bleaching recovery in

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/04/30/the-dogs-of-winter/

    20

    • #
      Dennis

      How many months ago was it that UNESCO gave the GBR a clean bill of health?

      I realise that they also stated that they need to keep a watch on it, but that is how they operate.

      10

  • #
  • #
    David Maddison

    I sense some rewriting of history going on here. An Aboriginal site is claimed to be the “world’s first engineering project”, dating back 6,600 years and predating the pyramids and Stonehenge.

    The “structure” being spoken of, assuming it really exists, is a system of supposedly artifical interconnections between various lakes or swamps to enable the farming of eels. There are also supposedly “stone houses” but these seem to be no more than circular huts with a small base of uncut, unmortared, unshaped natural stones.

    I am struggling to see this as an “engineering project” and it represents nothing that wouldn’t be expected of stone age hunter gatherers and is unremarkable in every way.

    Even if the claim that it is an engineered structure is accepted, it is certainly not the oldest. Gobekli Tepe would have that honour at around 12,000 years old.

    http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/world-heritage-listing-for-budj-bim-another-step-closer/

    30

    • #
      James Murphy

      I don’t really see any great harm in preserving evidence of something which is, in the scope of Australian archaeology, rare and unusual. I very much doubt it is the ‘worlds first’ though, and I wonder where the line between engineered, and ‘non-engineered’ is drawn.

      However, if today, I was to decide that I could farm eels by artificially connecting lakes or swamps, but needed to build a few stone and (presumably some sort of thatch-equivalent) buildings (cheap local stone and other materials), would I get permission with ease…?

      50

    • #
      Annie

      The stone circles sound like the sort of thing we’d place around our camp fire. Not quite the Pyramids or Stonehenge.

      00

  • #
    AndyG55

    Been thinking.. (danger, danger)

    The people we REALLY NEED to be trying to persuade are the Union bosses.

    Once they realise what a disaster an ETS would be for industry, surely they would talk to Bill and persuade him of the stupidity of an ETS that sends OUR money and OUR jobs overseas.

    I know the union bosses don’t give a SH*T about their workers, but maybe if enough workers start questioning the idiocy of an ETS, then the ALP can be persuaded to drop this childish anti-science gesture to the far-left parasites.

    32

  • #
    AndyG55

    The factory worker, the shop assistant, all the workers in non-public-service unions.. these are the ones that will SUFFER first from rising electricity costs.

    They are the unions bread and butter.

    21

  • #
    David Maddison

    Australia under Turnbull is going to spend A$50 billion on 12 diesel submarines. That’s $4.17 billion each. A nuclear attack submarine of the US Virginia class costs A mere A$2.37 billion per piece. Plus the delivery time is a staggering 15 years by which time the winning tenderer, France, may no longer exist as a nation, at least not a civilised, organised, stable one. It doesn’t seem like a very good deal.

    50

    • #

      Ta Da!

      And the delivery date for the last of those 12 Submarines.

      2060.

      You know, decades after they become obsolete.

      Tony.

      60

    • #
      James Murphy

      I don’t understand why people think that nuclear subs are inherently better than their conventional counterparts. Both have strengths and weaknesses, and both can have completely different roles. A nuclear powered ICBM launchpad is not the same thing as a sub designed for reconnaissance and surveillance, to take 2 extreme ends of the spectrum.

      Presumably the RAN had a big say in what they wanted with respect to submarine capability, and if they wanted nuclear, then it wouldn’t have been rejected out-of-hand – although I understand that nuclear powered vessels aren’t allowed to dock in New Zealand, so that does pose a small problem given our strategic alliances. The fact is, Australian subs need to be designed for Australian requirements, and that is never as cheap as buying ‘off-the-shelf’.

      I don’t want to get into a discussion about whether or not this is the best way to spend AU$50billion, because
      a) no contract has been signed, and
      b) I don’t know what the RAN really want to do with their subs (only some speculation, and a handful of insider knowledge)
      c) I don’t see why this particular “waste of money” is inherently better, or worse than any other governmental decision to waste our money.

      (I admit, I am a bit biased, as before I got a ‘proper’ job, I worked for the company which built the Collins Class subs (thankfully my non-disclosure agreement expired recently), and being good friends with people who actually did the hands-on building of the subs, I cannot help but feel some loyalty and some chagrin when people knowingly, or unknowingly misrepresent the facts.)

      10

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Just because submarines have always interested me, in fact, fascinated me, I looked into Australian submarines to satisfy my curiosity. It seems Australia has a class of nuclear attack submarines scheduled to be deployed in the not too distant future. Is this current procurement related to that class of boats (assuming something is actually scheduled o be built)?

        20

        • #
          Another Ian

          Roy

          IIRC you’ll find these can be nuke or diesel and Australian ones will be diesel

          10

          • #
            Analitik

            Actually, they are taking a current nuclear design and assuming that replacing the reactor and turbine with appropriate diesel engines and fuel, batteries and electric motor will work. I’m sure they’ve run a bunch of simulations through models to show it will meet our unique performance requirements.

            20

            • #
              Another Ian

              Well we’d better at least triple the cost over runs and double the delivery time then

              20

            • #
              Roy Hogue

              I’m not the expert but it doesn’t seem possible to equate nuclear power with diesel electric. I don’t see how the diesel boats could be as fast as the nuclear. Probably 6 of 1 equals half a dozen of the other in most other respects. But speed takes bruit power and there’s no way the two can compete for bruit power.

              What am I missing?

              10

              • #
                Analitik

                Nothing. Our subs won’t be as fast (nor have the same endurance, obviously) has the French nukes. It’s as simple as that. They can still be quiet (possibly quieter than a nuke) when running on battery and you would hope the bunkerage is sufficient for our range requirements.

                I agree with Another Ian that morphing an existing design in such a radical manner is likely to cause issues when they start building them, not to mention the interfacing of US based communications and control equipment with the rest of the innards to replace the French stuff. Still, the German and Japanese bids were based on morphing existing designs to greatly increase bunkerage and hence range, just as with the Collins class.

                10

            • #
              Roy Hogue

              Yesterday I was tempted to say, beware of simulations. But at least in this case it’s all engineering considerations that they have a good chance to get right before they build instead of after (a la climate change). Designing submarines is a mature discipline by now.

              Another Ian is no doubt right about cost overruns though. Anything new is risky until you’ve done it.

              00

      • #
        Another Ian

        James

        But then

        “Buying subs from the fickle French is a huge and expensive gamble”

        http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/buying_subs_from_the_fickle_french_is_a_huge_and_expensive_gamble/

        Anyone checked Renault cars in Australia?

        20

      • #
        Sweet Old Bob

        Maybe the simple ability to remain submerged (undetected) for months at a time ?
        The difference between living and dying.
        And living conditions are much better on a nuc.

        30

  • #
    Aaron M

    Funding the arts isn’t always bad, as we know.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvUU8joBb1Q

    10

  • #
    AndyG55

    I contacted ALA with the question….

    “If an ETS or other carbon pricing was proposed by either Liberal or Labor.

    What would ALA vote.. For or against?”

    Answer.. just one word….:

    AGAINST !!

    62

  • #
    Another Ian

    “Y2Kyoto: What Do Scientists Say? ‘

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2016/05/y2kyoto-what-do-1.html#comments

    AND THE COMMENTS

    20

  • #
    pat

    1 May: UK Telegraph: Christopher Booker: The climate change brigade, press freedoms – and clockwork bluebells
    There recently arrived on the desk of the editor of The Times an extraordinary three-page letter, signed by 13 members of the House of Lords. They informed him in no uncertain terms that, if he wished to save his paper’s reputation, he must stop printing articles which don’t accord with the official orthodoxy on climate change. Headed by Lord Krebs, its signatories read like a check-list of our “climate establishment”…
    Four are members of the supposedly “independent” Committee on Climate Change, including its chairman Lord Deben (aka John Gummer). Others included Lord (Nicholas) Stein and Lord Oxburgh, chair of the inquiry set up by East Anglia University which cleared its Climatic Research Unit of any impression of scientific wrongdoing given by the Climategate emails. Although these signatories are all fully committed “climate alarmists”, none is in any way a climate scientist, and several have declared financial interests in “renewables” and “low-carbon” energy.
    The gist of their letter, written in consultation with Richard Black, the former BBC environmental reporter who now runs an ultra-green propaganda unit, was to express outrage that The Times had published two articles which appeared to question the official orthodoxy on global warming…READ ALL
    PLUS Flowers show that the climate is blooming well fine…
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/01/the-climate-change-brigade-press-freedoms—and-clockwork-bluebe/

    30 Apr: AP: The Latest: Berkshire investors reject climate change report
    Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have overwhelmingly rejected a resolution calling for the company to write a report about the risks climate change creates for its insurance companies.
    CEO Warren Buffett says he agrees that dealing with climate change is important for society, but he doesn’t think climate change creates serious risks for Berkshire’s insurance businesses…
    The activists who proposed the motion tried to urge Buffett to take a public stance in favor of measures to reduce consumption of fossil fuels, but he resisted.
    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_BERKSHIRE_HATHAWAY_SHAREHOLDERS_THE_LATEST?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-04-30-20-36-16

    10

  • #
    pat

    ludicrous:

    1 May: Forbes: James Conca: Climate Change Litigation – The Children Win In Court
    Against all odds, the 21 children, ages 8 to 19, who are suing the government to protect the environment against the harm of global warming in their future, have won in court.
    Again.
    In a surprise ruling on Friday from the bench in the ongoing climate case brought by these youths against the State of Washington’s Department of Ecology, King County Superior Court Judge Hollis Hill ordered the Department of Ecology to promulgate a carbon emissions reduction rule by the end of 2016 and make recommendations to the state legislature on science-based greenhouse gas reductions in the 2017 legislative session. Judge Hill also ordered the Department of Ecology to consult with the young plaintiffs in advance of that recommendation…
    Most dismiss these cases as nonsense that will be thrown out of court and will never end up causing any significant change. But the fact that they keep successfully moving through the court system belies such a casual kiss-off. And the policy and financial ramifications of success will be significant.
    In granting the plaintiffs a remedy, Judge Hill noted the extraordinary circumstances of global warming, saying, “this is an urgent situation…these kids can’t wait.”…READ ALL
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2016/05/01/climate-change-litigation-the-children-win-in-court/#4614e7f35dfe

    good fun:

    2 pages: 1 May: Washington Times: Valerie Richardson: ‘Climate Hustle’ storm brews as Weather Channel founder calls Bill Nye ‘pretend scientist’
    “Climate Hustle,” which has a one-day screening at theaters nationwide Monday, argues that the climate-change catastrophe scenarios are part of an “overheated environmental con job” aimed at creating hysteria in order to drive public support for bigger government and ever-increasing regulation.
    The documentary’s full name is: “Climate Hustle: Are They Trying to Control the Climate .… Or You?”
    Anthony Watts, who runs the skeptical climate website Watts Up With That, said the documentary is the first aimed at debunking the claims of the climate-change movement. He called the film “corny” at times but also vastly more entertaining than ponderous climate yawners like Leonardo DiCaprio’s 2007 “The 11th Hour,” which bombed at the box office.
    “[T]hat’s the purpose of this film, to make people laugh at the ridiculous claims that have been created about global warming/climate change. Morano does this, and does it well.
    That’s the power behind this film,” said Mr. Watts in his review…
    DeSmog quotes filmmaker Randy Olson describing the film as “very amateurish,” while Mr. Watts says that’s part of its charm…
    Mr. Morano tries to interview scientists who end up fleeing from the microphone. Other scientists say that expressing skepticism on global warming comes with a price…READ ALL
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/1/climate-hustle-anti-climate-change-film-to-air-in-/

    10

  • #

    Princess Charlotte at age one looks so much like her great-grandmom did at one! :-)
    Perhaps the Royals are needed, so some can remain lovely, highly respected, yet remaining quite capable of cleanly dispatching all of the greedy incompetent bums, from time to time, when such is truly necessary!
    All the best! -will-

    30

  • #
    pat

    catchy Bloomberg piece being picked up by other MSM:

    30 Apr: WaPo: Bloomberg: Mark Buchanan: Why We Fear Spiders More Than Climate Change
    Evolutionary psychologists argue that much of human behavior can be understood only by studying our ancient ancestors. Through 99 percent of human history, they lived in small groups of hunter-gatherers, with brains evolved to handle specific tasks, such as recognizing quickly a poisonous reptile or the emotions and intentions betrayed by facial expressions. The kind of rational thinking needed to weigh payoffs far in the future developed only recently, in the last 1 percent of our existence…
    Now, climate change is presenting humans with the ultimate long-term thinking task. February saw a record high average global surface temperature — a whopping 1.35 degrees Celsius higher than the average temperature between 1951 and 1980. A recent study suggests that the melting of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets could plausibly raise sea levels several meters by the end of the century. Yet despite the growing body of evidence that rising carbon dioxide levels will lead to a catastrophic warming of the planet, we keep producing more than ever — as if we just can’t believe what we’re seeing…
    In a recent paper, Stanford psychology professor Lee Ross and a team of other psychologists, economists and biologists suggest that the problem is in the way our brains are put together. The nature of climate change, they argue, makes it nearly impossible for us to exercise “foresight intelligence” — to diagnose the problem in advance, and then take planned action to address it…
    One final point: Ross and his co-authors suggest that “the most difficult but perhaps most important task” is to move away from the economic vision of endless growth, because the production of an ever-widening spectrum of new material things has put too much of a strain on the planet…
    http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-O6E9C36JTSO001-4K0S9GN8G27Q34963FHP6H19RT

    13 Apr: Stanford: Rosemary Mena-Werth: Scientists suggest appealing to human psychology to create solutions to climate change
    In an article published Wednesday, April 13, in BioScience, several scientists, including Stanford researchers, explore these barriers and suggest strategies involving education, marketing, norm-creation, use of “default options” and various behavior interventions that could overcome these barriers to meeting the challenge of climate change…
    Written by some of Stanford’s most eminent scholars and scientists in fields as diverse as biology, psychology and economics, the BioScience article addresses the magnitude and urgency of the challenge and points the way to strategies and policies to meet that challenge…
    In one provocative study, researchers showed that homeowners would lower their energy usage if they simply were told that they were consuming more than their neighbors…
    This research was a project of the Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere and involved the collaboration of Paul Ehrlich, Lee Ross, Kenneth Arrow, Marcus Feldman, and Donald Kennedy of Stanford. It was written in conjunction with scientists Robert Cialdini, Nadia Diamond-Smith, Joan Diamond, Jennifer Dunne, Robert Horn, Craig Murphy, Dennis Pirages, Kirk Smith, and Richard York.
    https://news.stanford.edu/2016/04/13/scientists-suggest-appealing-human-psychology-create-solutions-climate-change/

    13 Apr: Bioscience/OxfordJournals: The Climate Change Challenge and Barriers to the Exercise of Foresight Intelligence
    Despite solid evidence from the scientific community about climate disruption, much of the US public remains unconvinced about the reality of anthropogenic change, and national governments have been slow to undertake major steps to deal with the climate crisis. In order to understand this lack of foresight intelligence regarding climate disruption, we identify some features of climate disruption and human psychology that combine to create barriers to effective action. We also review encouraging, albeit modest, successes in persuading Americans to conserve energy through “psych-wise” initiatives…
    http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2016/04/08/biosci.biw025.abstract

    00

  • #
    pat

    following is almost incomprehensible, much of it not connected to CAGW, but includes:

    1 May: Newsweek: Katie Okamoto: Honolulu Might Be Sunk Due to Climate Change
    Meanwhile, global sea level rise is accelerating at its fastest rate in 28 centuries, a study in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reported earlier this year; by 2100, average global sea level is expected to rise between 1 and 6 feet. The latest projections, published in Nature in March, suggest that more than 13 million people may be at risk in the continental United States alone. In Hawaii, as the sea level rises, the rainwater that flows rapidly down from the mountains will encounter a kind of traffic jam once it hits the canal. “You have all this water coming down the watershed and no place for it to go,” says Chip Fletcher, who leads the Coastal Geology Group at the University of Hawaii at Manoa…
    http://www.newsweek.com/hawaii-ala-wai-canal-project-waikiki-beach-honolulu-454222

    LinkedIn: Katie Okamoto, freelance writer
    Writer and communications professional with a passion for working on challenges related to environmental change, coastal cities, and public health. My writing has been published by The Atlantic, Newsweek, VICE, and Lucky Peach. I hold a Master of Architecture from Columbia University GSAPP, where I focused on sustainability and waterfront development and was Research Associate at the Urban Landscape Lab…
    ***Agenda 21 Intern, Ministry for Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy, France, September 2007 – December 2007

    10

  • #
    TdeF

    It is hard to believe that Turnbull has blindsided so many conservative commentators. Pickering is dismissive and cannot see the point of a double dissolution. Bolt cannot understand why the minority senators were removed. Smith thinks little of him and opens with a quote

    “Labor will slaughter him with all his climate change true believer stuff” I said, “He invented the ETS and people forget he crossed the floor for Rudd. All his heartfelt speeches and blogs it’s all there online. How’s he answer that?”

    The quick answer is that he will not be slaughtered. He has a cunning plan, far better than Baldrick’s.

    No Turnbull’s trap, the trap of a QC, is to lead everyone along, keep the ABC and Fairfax on side and enjoy it all. Otherwise, like Kenny, he is going through the motions of campaigning and doing nothing to appease the traditional Liberal voters. In his opinion, they will vote Liberal & National anyway but by combining with the Greens, he will have a lot more Liberal and Green seats than anyone realises.

    Simply if Green preferences do not flow to Labor, Labor are finished. So who gets the seats? The Greens and the Liberals. Melbourne Ports will be Liberal for the first time in history. The price is one Turnbull and his progressive MPs are happy to pay. Who cares what the Nationals think? They do not need them.

    The strong LIberal and National lower house seats will remain. The weak ones all have a large Green constituency and will be reinforced by Green preferences while Labor seats will fall across the country.

    This is the ethics of a lawyer. It is all about winning, not about loyalties or the truth or promises made. Turnbull’s amazing silence and inactivity is a sure indicator that he is up to something. Why chase around the country shoring up marginal seats when in one stroke, all the nervous newbies will find their seat secured, with Green preferences.

    Yes, I know Green voters cannot be pushed but when they realise it means National power for their team, they will follow the how to vote cards. Labor have effectively sent the successful children of factory workers to the Greens and now will pay the price. The party of the workers is finished, but we knew that. It is now the party of the Unions. Even the communists are in the Greens.

    Poor Morrison, trying to cut taxes but delivering the biggest deficit in Australian history. His boss does not care. Since when did a banker care about someone else’s debt? Then Morrison will be finished politically, the result Turnbull wanted. Abbott believed you kept your friends close and your enemies closer. Turnbull has no friends.

    60

    • #
      TdeF

      Possibly the most puzzled is Bill Shorten. The polls, based on voting preferences from the last election are showing that Bill can win. Surely he is puzzled about the known gaming of preferences between his partners the Greens and the Liberals? Who are they plotting against, if not Bill and Barnaby?

      Turnbull and his ex Lord Mayor wife, LLB, MBA and daughter of a former Attorney General and Granddaughter of a former Lord Mayor added $30K of their own money to the ridiculous $11M renovation of the Lodge in Canberra. Who would do that if they were only going to stay two more months? Despite a popular belief, rich people do not throw money away.

      The very idea that the Turnbulls are floundering and not executing a backroom strategy is laughable. Lucy comes from generations of powerful politicians. She intends to be in the Lodge for a very long time.

      40

      • #
        Dennis

        They also thought that they could hold the Liberal Party’s margin at the North Sydney by election following the resignation of former Treasurer Joe Hockey after he was dumped by the new PM. But not many local branch members cooperated and outsiders had to be paid to distribute election campaign material. And it was reported that an unprecedented $600K was spent on that campaign in what was considered to be a very safe Liberal electorate.

        Voting resulted in a 13 per cent loss of margin from the 2013 election result when Tony Abbott as the Prime Minister.

        Noting that the Liberals did much better at the Canning WA by election a few weeks earlier following the death of the sitting member, and with PM Abbott campaigning for the excellent candidate Andrew Hastie, a former SAS soldier.

        40

        • #
          TdeF

          Won by Turnbull’s man, the ‘progressive’ head of the Liberal party in NSW and the first openly gay member of the Lower House. The Green vote was 16%. Who cares about a 13% drop in the Liberal vote if you can add the Green vote if in trouble?

          The sons and daughters of successful people are voting Green, whether or because their parents are Labor or Liberal. This is very evident in the middle to upper class inner city. While the Greens only have one seat in the House of Representatives, if they switch their support to Malcolm’s Green Liberals, they will get lots of Labor seats and have great influence in others. Only those 8 seats won by Labor with an absolute majority will be safe.

          What sort of parliament will it be with only 8 Labor seats?

          30

  • #
    Graeme No.3

    “You have all this water coming down the watershed and no place for it to go,” ?????

    Yes, you are right “almost incomprehensible”. I wonder if these people realise that water flows DOWNHILL.

    20

    • #

      Graeme No.3 May 2, 2016 at 10:01 am

      (“You have all this water coming down the watershed and no place for it to go,” ?????)
      “Yes, you are right “almost incomprehensible”. I wonder if these people realise that water flows DOWNHILL.”

      Indeed! Please remember the Rudy Clausius version of the second Law of thermodynamics, “Stuff don spontaneously go uphill”! Disagree? Look at a photograph of Rudy, then you will change your attitude! The rest of us can have much fun with “What direction is uphill, your next round!” :-)

      11

  • #
    pat

    30 Apr: Australian: Bjorn Lomborg: Dear World Bank, poverty is more urgent than global warming
    The planet’s biggest provider of non-private financing to developing countries will increase climate-related aid by one-third, meaning that by 2020 these efforts will amount to about $US29 billion ($38bn) a year. Every single dollar that the World Bank spends will “take account of climate change”…
    In a global poll, the UN asked almost 10 million people from around the globe for their top priorities, and their clear priorities are better education and healthcare, less corruption, more jobs and affordable food.
    The world’s poor placed global warming at the very last spot, as priority No 16 out of 16…
    Yet the World Bank plans to mobilise $US20bn in private funding for clean energy and generate 30 gigawatts of renewable energy in the developing world by 2020. What so-called “climate aid” often boils down to is providing solar panels to areas deemed in need.
    Solar panels are good at powering a single bulb or charging a cell phone, while the sun is shining.
    But they cannot power clean-cook stoves, refrigerators or machinery. Solar panels are intermittent and relatively inefficient, and do next to nothing to solve the huge problem of energy poverty. They can’t keep a hospital or a factory running…ETC
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/bjorn-lomborg/dear-world-bank-poverty-is-more-urgent-than-global-warming/news-story/e4bc03cb6e0f982804548fc3a60a44d3

    20

  • #
    el gordo

    Joe Bastardi predicts California is about to endure another dry spell.

    http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-april-30-2016

    Good presentation by a climate cyclist.

    10

  • #

    tallbloke says: May 1, 2016 at 4:55 pm

    “Paul, there’s no doubt in my mind that the orbital rates of Earth and Venus are intimately linked to the orbital rates of Jupiter and Saturn by the Phi relation. In my second PRP paper I tried to elucidate links between them and the solar differential rotation rate too. A work in progress (on hold until after the EU referendum, when I will withdraw from politics and return to science).”

    Lets hope you can return from that cesspool!
    You still fail to see what Paul and others observe! Your Phi relation is but an expression for a constant interval, in one dimension relating to a power series in any number of orthogonal dimensions!! When you (add-subtract) the adjacent values of the power series against a constant interval. such as time-interval , or its complex conjugate -1/(time-interval), frequency yields the next power value in that series, in that direction! Power as in algebraic raised thereto, not some first derivative of of fantasy energy with respect to time
    That solution for Phi, i.e. solving for x, when 1/x + 1 = x, is more correctly symbolized by: (1/((x)^(N+1)) + (x/x)^N = (x)^(N+1), for any x, and any integer or perhaps rational N. Please note that (x/x)^N , is always an identity, with value one, never tending toward an unstable pole or zero! Earthling understanding seems to be based on the concept of unity (1), not on the concept of origin zero (0)!
    This portion of the universe seems to be arranged in such a manner, that reinforcing resonances, in the frequency domain, leading to self destruction, are suppressed, perhaps verboten! Both the orbital periods, and the orbital frequencies seem never to be precisely rational! :-) Your job, if you choose to accept, is to develop an acceptable fantasy of WHY?
    All the best!

    01

  • #
    pat

    read all:

    2 May: WorldNetDaily: WND EXCLUSIVE: Jerome R. Corsi: SunEdison bankruptcy exposes climate-change corruption
    Renewable energy sector collapsing under mountain of debt
    Now, the First Wind acquisition that arguably made SunEdison “one of the world’s largest, if not the largest renewable energy developers,” has returned to haunt the renewable energy conglomerate…
    As noted by Peter Schweizer in his 2011 bestselling book “Throw Them All Out,” David E. Shaw, the firms founder and the largest shareholder in First Wind, was a two-time bundler for President Obama and one of the top three donors to the Democratic Party prior to First Wind receiving $232 million in Obama stimulus funds, including $115 million for a wind-turbine project in Hawaii called Kakuku Wind for which First Wind created a total of 125 jobs.
    Shaw served on the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology under President Clinton in 1994 and President Obama in 2009…
    Lawrence Summers, a part owner of First Wind, was a part-time employee of D. E. Shaw from 2006 until 2008, earning approximately $5 million with the New York-based hedge fund, working one day a week for the firm in an advisory capacity, at what Business Insider calculated was a rate of $52,000 per day or $4,333 per hour.
    Summers served as secretary of the treasury from 1999 to 2001, under President Obama, and was appointed Director of the National Economic Council by then President-elect Obama on Nov. 24, 2008…
    After First Wind hired lobbyist Larry Rasky, the press secretary for then Sen. Joe Biden’s 1988 presidential campaign and a bundler who pledged to raise over $500,000 for Obama’s 2012 presidential campaign, the company secured over $500 million in government energy loans and grants…
    In 2006, Goldman Sachs was named the lead investor in then start-up SunEdison, a firm that Goldman Sachs managing director Alan Waxman bragged would “help transform the U.S. solar market and drive growth for many years to come.”
    In April 2014, Goldman Sachs provided $250 million in the initial capital to form SunEdison’s “yieldco’ spinoffs, TerraForm Power and TerraForm Global…READ ALL
    http://www.wnd.com/2016/05/sunedison-bankruptcy-exposes-climate-change-corruption/

    29 Apr: Reuters: Jim Christie: Kansas court refuses to move Abengoa unit bankruptcy to Delaware
    A judge in Kansas has rejected a bid by a unit of Abengoa SA to transfer its bankruptcy case to Delaware because it could leave creditors with a bit part in the restructuring of the Spanish renewable energy company.
    Judge Robert Nugent of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Wichita said in an order this week he would hold on to the Chapter 11 case of Abengoa Bioenergy Biomass of Kansas LLC, noting he was concerned creditors could be “lost in the sea of complex matters that may be pending in the larger Abengoa case.”.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/bankruptcy-abengoa-idUSL2N17W0E8

    10

  • #
    pat

    big claims!

    1 May: Chicago Tribune: Bloomberg: Jessica Shankleman: World’s biggest windmills now make jumbo jets look tiny
    The next generation are even larger and designed to withstand an Arctic battering…
    The granddaddy of them all is a machine with rotors that cut a 538-foot (164-meter) swath made by a Vestas Wind Systems venture with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. A single blade is 80 meters, about the entire wingspan of an Airbus A380 jumbo jet. In the intensely competitive wind turbine business, it’s rare for executives to allow a close-up look of what they’re developing, lest they tip off rivals. Vestas allowed Bloomberg News to visit and photograph the prototype units…
    As they got bigger, the units became more efficient, boosting global installations 23 percent last year to a record 63.5 gigawatts, which at full tilt would be about as much as what flows from 63 nuclear reactors. Wind is now the most installed form of low-carbon energy…
    The 80-meter blades of the MHI Vestas V164 make the machine almost as high as the Times Square Tower in New York, and are so large that they were “a nightmare” to transport on narrow country roads, Jens Tommerup, chief executive officer of the venture, said in an interview…
    The turbine is unlikely to ever operate onshore, said Tommerup, the unit’s CEO. “It’s just too big.”…
    Computers allow the machine to adapt to all conditions. The blades rotate to face the wind and limit downtime. During gales of 12 meters per second (27 mph, or 43/kph), motors restrict the turbine from spinning too fast. When it gets more violent, the turbine can switch off…
    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-wp-blm-turbines-5d44af3c-0d50-11e6-bc53-db634ca94a2a-20160501-story.html

    30

  • #
    pat

    first the alleged good news, then ***…

    1 May: TheLocalSpain: AFP: Feeding frenzy in Spain’s renewable energy sector
    And the spending frenzy is unlikely to die down, as German giant Siemens eyes up wind power group Gamesa, and Cerberus is thought to be considering joining forces with US billionaire George Soros to devour T-Solar and its solar farms…
    Last year, Spain was in fifth position worldwide for wind power, with installed capacity of 23 gigawatts — the equivalent of 23 nuclear reactors — and in eighth place for solar power after China, the United States and Germany.
    This high ranking came despite near-zero investment in the sector over the past few years as the economic crisis hit…
    ***In order to keep growing, however, they need money.
    “But many (wind farm) owners are struggling to cope with their debt,” says the AEE, after the sharp drop in public subsidies.
    The situation is hardly any better in the solar sector.
    T-Solar for instance is heavily indebted and renewables giant Abengoa is on the verge of bankruptcy.
    In comparison, private equity firms have a lot of cash for acquisitions.
    And ultimately, the renewables sector has good prospects, particularly after 175 countries agreed to slow down global warming in a historic deal signed in December in Paris.
    http://www.thelocal.es/20160501/feeding-frenzy-in-spains-renewable-energy-sector

    20

    • #

      pat mentions this:

      …..with installed capacity of 23 gigawatts — the equivalent of 23 nuclear reactors …..

      And this for his earlier Comment 52:

      …..boosting global installations 23 percent last year to a record 63.5 gigawatts, which at full tilt would be about as much as what flows from 63 nuclear reactors…..

      Note here how they are still using the Nameplate (here referred to as Installed Capacity) as the comparison.

      Those 23 nuclear reactors, and for the earlier Comment, 63 Nuclear reactors, will actually deliver between three and four times the power.

      Tony.

      20

  • #
    pat

    MESSAGE TO WUWT (IN CASE ANYONE COMMUNICATES WITH ANTHONY OR ERIC WORRALL).

    as a number of readers have commented over several months, on Tips & Notes page & on threads, visiting WUWT has become a problem, perhaps not for everyone, but definitely for some, and especially when it comes to the Tips & Notes page.

    “recovering” the webpage wasted a lot of time for months, but now i get “security alert” on homepage and Tips & Notes page, so cannot even read WUWT content.

    getting rid of the “security alert” is another problem to deal with in order to be able to shut down the website.

    has malware infected WUWT? i don’t know, but i’ve emptied cache repeatedly, checked for malware (& found none) on my own laptop, so don’t know what else to do in order to be able to visit WUWT once more.

    hope it gets sorted out soon.

    30

    • #
      Another Ian

      Pat

      I got a bombed script message this morning and whatever it was crashed Firefox

      10

    • #
      John Watt

      Possibly the same disease that is affecting the Australian Climate Science Coalition website? Looks like someone out there doesn’t like free speech.

      10

      • #
        pat

        Another Ian & John Watt -

        i have friends who experienced problems with WUWT many months ago – having to recover the webpage & stop scripts etc – and usually they gave up going to the website, which is a shame. am sure that has happened to many potential visitors.

        just prior to the “security alerts” starting a week or so ago, it seemed the Tips & Notes page problem could reset my router. i have no similar problems with any other website i visit, and i do visit a lot of alt websites.

        similarly, i saw a comment one day, maybe on jo’s website or on bolt’s, about being directed to a page saying joannenova website domain is for sale. i hadn’t experienced that until quite recently, when i’d emptied cache (or whatever) & i got sent to the page mentioned, suggesting jo no longer had her website.

        i have noted occasional slow loading of a few other CAGW sceptic websites, but nothing you could pin down as being the result of some outside interference.

        of course, no trouble whatsoever, quickly opening the most propagandistic of MSM websites!

        30

        • #
          ROM

          Pat
          I also can no longer access the WUWT site as I get a ;

          Safari can’t open the page “https://wattsupwiththat.com/” because Safari can’t establish a secure connection to the server “wattsupwiththat.com”.

          WUWT along with quite a number of other sites very recently have changed their address protocol from “http“to “https” a “secure” site protocol which uses only a couple of ports in your computer.

          My old Mac’s Safari browser can’t handle the changes so a lot of sites are starting to be inaccessible to me.
           Climate Audit, Climate Etc have also changed to “https” and I can’t access them either.

          But other” https” sites I can still access.

          It apparently depends on your computers port configuration that the” https” is set up to access or can’t access hence the “can’t establish a secure connection ” read out..
          Steve McIntyre has done quite a lot on Anthony Watts computer set up and they seemed to have changed configurations together and to the similar “https” settings.

          Considering the fanaticism of the global warmers / green sleaze and their openly vicious and escalating public attacks on anybody with a hint of publicly expressed doubt as the CAGW / green / environmental scene all begins to come seriously unstuck, the attacks on Anthony Watts and Steve Mc and Judith Curry and many other skeptic sites and individuals are no doubt becoming ever more frenetic.
          So what is going on behind the scenes to try and take down all the leading skeptic sites by the fanatics of the CAGW meme can probably only be imagined.
          Jo no doubt could testify to that in no uncertain way.

          ———————-
          HTTP and HTTPS – What is the difference?

          HTTP stands for Hyper Text Transport Protocol, which is just a fancy way of saying it’s a protocol (a language, in a manner of speaking) for information to be passed back and forth between web servers and clients. You really don’t need to know what it all stands for; the important thing is the letter S which makes the difference between HTTP and HTTPS.

          The S (big surprise) stands for “Secure”. You probably didn’t need me to tell you that, because you already knew it had something to do with security. If you visit a website or webpage, and look at the address in the web browser, it will likely begin with the following: http://. This means that the website is talking to your browser using the regular ‘unsecure’ language. In other words, it is possible for someone to “eavesdrop” on your computer’s conversation with the website. If you fill out a form on the website, someone might see the information you send to that site.

          This is why you never ever ever enter your credit card number in an http website!

          But if the web address begins with https://, that basically means your computer is talking to the website in a secure code that no one can eavesdrop on. You understand why this is so important, right? If a website ever asks you to enter your credit card information, you should automatically look to see if the web address begins with https://.

          If it doesn’t, there’s no way you’re going to enter sensitive information like a credit card number!

          It should be pointed out that just because a website has that magic “S” in its address, that does not mean it is wise to do business with them; even scam artists can have https sites! It simply means that no outsiders can eavesdrop on your conversation…doesn’t mean you should be having the conversation in the first place. Only do business with reputable firms, or firms you have thoroughly checked out!

          30

          • #
            pat

            ROM -

            many many thanx for your comment. i think u have hit on something, which i can now explore further, when time permits.

            00

          • #

            This is an internet global shift. HTTPS originally used one cypher that was OK, not great, and it got cracked. Then moved to another, and it got cracked. There is now a move afoot to completely scrub those old cyphers from the internet and have every one use only the newer secure one (this time for sure…)

            Yes, it’s a royal PITA. But it really is time for SSL to die, and TLS to be “it”.

            For many sites, it gives you the “nag” of “not secure” and then a simple ‘reload the page’ works (i.e. the security level is set to ‘annoy, but then work’). For other sites, they insist on TLS.

            For anything involving money and real security needed, you ONLY want the best encryption in the link. For other stuff, eh…

            https://luxsci.com/blog/ssl-versus-tls-whats-the-difference.html

            It used to be believed that TLS v1.0 was marginally more secure than SSL v3.0, its predecessor. However, SSL v3.0 is getting very old and recent developments, such as the POODLE vulnerability have shown that SSL v3.0 is now completely insecure (especially for web sites using it). Even before the POODLE was set loose, the US Government had already mandated that SSL v3 not be used for sensitive government communications or for HIPAA-compliant communications. If that was not enough … POODLE certainly was. In fact, as a result of POODLE, SSL v3 is being disabled on web sites all over the world and for many other services as well.

            SSL v3.0 is effectively “dead” as a useful security protocol. Places that still allow its use for web hosting as placing their “secure web sites” at risk; Organizations that allow SSL v3 use to persist for other protocols (e.g. IMAP) should take steps to remove that support at the soonest software update maintenance window.

            Old browser? You will have ever more of this problem until you run a TLS recent level capable browser.

            Oh, and for sites where they have their own domain name, IF their service provider doesn’t handle the cert naming properly, you can now get an “insecure site” nag when you connect. So “whattsupwiththat.com” maps to a “wordpress.com” destination server and “something notices the switch” and you get the nag. Folks will eventually find those and fix them…

            Hope that helps…

            10

            • #
              ROM

              E.M.Smith @ # 2.1.1.4

              I just spotted your post above so;

              Thanks for your information.
              I was already in my mid fifties before the internet arrived locally around the mid 1990′s and my first computer in the late 1990′s so never got in front on the learning curve.
              That as well as the web access being down a somewhat casually maintained rural phone line, adequate for voice but computers?!, for a number of years after the advent of the WWW locally.
              I admire your ability to just get in there and screw those computer innards and operating systems and programming languages around until they perform or else!

              Sigh!
              I’m just an old uneducated and now retired and pensioned off grain farmer who now builds and sells chook [ chicken ] feeders and sparrow traps to keep me out of the kitchen and maintain peace in the household!

              00

            • #
              pat

              E.M.Smith -

              thanks for that info tho, for someone who is not tech savvy, am not sure i’ll be able to visit WUWT until i see enough people say the problem is solved once and for all.

              my browser is up-to-date, & i don’t intend changing anything my end in the hope being able to visit the site.

              wonder how many others have been affected? do hope WUWT or wordpress sort it out.

              00

  • #
    Dennis

    Bill Shorten says he will lead Australia like a unionist ……

    Be afraid people, be very afraid. Note the Trade Union Royal Commission into governance and corruption findings and the over one hundred unionists and former unionists referred to legal agencies by the TURC.

    http://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2016/05/shorten-i-will-lead-australia-like-a-unionist-like-an-awu-organiser-taking-orders-from-bill-ludwig.html

    31

  • #
    Andrew McRae

    Tell the Wicked Witch of the West to steer clear of Tassie, more ocean acidification fears at the ABC.
    Lots of talk and consensus, but the only observational claim in the story is this:

    Researchers said the percentage of pteropods with dissolving shells observed had doubled since the pre-industrial era

    Coupla questions.
    • Is that a comparison of two points in time, or is that the longterm trend of all intermediate measurements?
    • Is that from 33% to 66%, or from 2% to 4% of the population?
    • How many perfectly preserved samples of pteropods are there from 1745 anyhow?
    • If this was from a seabed drilling program, how do you know what bias exists between pteropods that get deposited there and pteropods that don’t, like did thin-walled pteropods get eaten more often than healthy ones before they could be deposited? What’s the pH of the deposition layer during storage?
    • In 2013 Beare and McQuatters-Gollop and Co said…

    A pteropod time-series from the North Pacific suggested an increase in Clione and a decrease in thecosomes; but the drivers behind the abundance and biomass trends of the two taxa in that region are unclear, and there is no evidence to suggest change in pH as a driver [39]. Pteropod time-series in the California Current and the Northwest Atlantic also show no clear trends [40]–[41]. We believe, instead, that the long-term trends these three North Sea taxa are responding more to the complex, combined impacts of other climatic, chemical and biotic drivers.

       …so what evidence did this year’s conference attendees uncover that was not known in 2013?
    •Are there discrepancies between the 2016 Australian conference consensus and the results of the 2013 studies of North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic, and if so does that indicate a regional rather than global cause?

    Inquiring minds would like to know.

    60

    • #
      Another Ian

      Andrew

      “Is that a comparison of two points in time, or is that the longterm trend of all intermediate measurements?”

      Well at least look on that as a somewhat improvement if it is 2 points.

      It used to be said that

      A statician (under protest) would fit a curve through 3 points

      An engineer through 2

      And an ecofadist through 1

      50

      • #
        Andrew McRae

        Yes, thanks Ian, we should look on the bright side. Though I don’t know if engineers would be happy with that podium placement.

        Probably the ecofascists will fit curves to three points even when only one actual measurement is available, and when three real measurements are available they will still fit the curve to whichever single point is most convenient. Intention is always difficult to prove. Judging by appearances we’ve been here before on OA, courtesy of the heretic Mike Wallace and the saintly Feely/Sabine duo. The official story is no pH measurements before 1988 can be relied on. Funny how that worked out.
        The amount of data only goes up, so the handy thing about the proliferation of climate science research is that you can always ignore trend information older than year Y by claiming dataCount(Y) is your minimum threshold for computing accurate trends.

        20

    • #

      That’s a good moniker and perhaps would apply to a couple of Turnbull supporters from Perth, now that the other witch got ditched.

      20