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Monckton: IPCC climate models speeding out of control compared to real world

Posted By Jo Nova On May 10, 2016 @ 4:38 am In Global Warming | Comments Disabled

Christopher Monckton reminds us of just how badly the “experts” have failed in the last 15 years, even including the recent hottest ever El Nino months. China bombed the atmosphere with record carbon “pollution” — worse than we thought. The world though, warms sedately at a mere half a degree per century. This is what 95% certainty looks like.   — Jo

Introducing the global warming speedometer

A single devastating graph shows climate panic was unfounded

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

A single devastating graph – the new global warming speedometer – shows just how badly the model-based predictions made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have failed.

 

climate change. models, IPCC, predictions, Success, failure, 2016

The Speedometer for the 15 years 4 months January 2001 to April 2016 shows the [1.1, 4.2] C°/century-equivalent range of global warming rates (red/orange) that IPCC’s 1990, 1995 and 2001 reports predicted should be happening by now, against real-world warming (green) equivalent to <0.5 C°/century over the period, taken as the least-squares linear-regression trend on the mean of the RSS and UAH satellite global lower-troposphere temperature datasets.

Predictions

IPCC (1990), at page xxiv, predicted near-linear global warming of 1.0 [0.7, 1.5] C° over the 36 years to 2025, a rate equivalent to 2.8 [1.9, 4.2] C°/century.

IPCC (1995), at fig. 6.13, assuming the subsequently-observed 0.5%-per-year increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, predicted a medium-term warming rate a little below 0.4 C° over 21 years, equivalent to 1.8 C°/century.

IPCC (2001), on page 8, predicted that in the 36 years 1990-2025 the world would warm by 0.75 [0.4, 1.1] C°, equivalent to 2.1 [1.1, 3.1] C°/century.

IPCC (2007, 2013) are too recent to allow reliable comparison of prediction against reality.

Reality

RSS and UAH monthly global lower-troposphere temperature anomaly values were averaged and the least-squares linear-regression trend on their mean determined as equivalent to 0.47 C°/century.

The least IPCC prediction made at least 15 years ago is that global warming should now be occurring at a rate equivalent to 1.1 C°/century. Yet that minimum prediction is well over double the rate of warming over the past 184 months, and IPCC’s maximum prediction of 4.2 C°/century by now is more than eight times what has happened in the real world.

Conclusion

Fifteen years is long enough to verify the predictions from IPCC’s first three Assessment Reports against real-world temperature change measured by the most sophisticated method available – satellites.

The visible discrepancy between wild prediction and harmless reality demonstrates that the major climate models on which governments have relied in setting their mitigation policies are unfit for their purpose. Removing the exaggeration inbuilt into the models eradicates the supposed climate problem.

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