### JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).

### Handbooks

The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX

Think it has been debunked? See here.

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Weekend Unthreaded, 8.1 out of 10 based on 34 ratings

Tiny Url for this post: http://tinyurl.com/gu6ngv3

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Alfred Alexander

I thought I was going to be the first to
click on the rating stars but alas alas
Alfred

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Roy Hogue

10 stars based on only 4 opinions seems more like statistical malpractice than the truth.

This free-for-all-thread has just gotten started and it’s already a 10? Very unusual to say the least. The green thumbs do not bear witness to such popularity.

And what do I know anyway. Opinions are something near and dear to the holder and I shouldn’t be too critical.

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Whoa up there buddy – I calculate out that statistic as 97%.

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Analitik

You beat me to it. At least we have consensus

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Roy Hogue

Are you basing that on the 6 opinions now or the 4 when I first saw it?

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Yonniestone

A fine example of the flaw of averages.

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Graeme No.3

Gavin Schmidt calculates it as 117% or 1.2345%, depending on the figure he needs at the time.

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Rereke Whakaaro

I have always liked 64%. It seems like a sensible percentage to me. And who wants to associate themselves with a nasty percentage that can’t be divided by a whole range of whole numbers?

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Peter C

I thought I might check that! How many numbers can 64 be divided by?

This is one answer by Charles M.

Best Answer: Don’t know if you count these, but the statement is true for all these numbers:
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 21, 31, 41, 51, 61
Every single number that has 2 in the units:
12, 22, 32, 42, 52, 62
Every one that ends in 3, whose 10′s digit is also divisible by 3
33, 63
Every one that ends in 4, if the 10′s digit is even
24, 44, 64
Every one that ends in 5:
15, 25, 35, 45, 55
For the sixes, only 36 works, 66 is too high.
For 7, none fit the bill.
For 8, you have 48 only
For 9 none fit the bill.

32 numbers, or half of 64 oddly enough, is the answer.

Charles M · 8 years ago

My question is (and I hope that you can answer this Rereke). How is 64 divisible by 5!

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JoKaH

I thought that the answer to everything was 42!

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“My question is (and I hope that you can answer this Rereke). How is 64 divisible by 5!”

Well according to post-normal physics and new-math, by long division 5 gasinta 6 oncet with the leftover one added to the 4 or 5. 5 gasinta 5 oncet again so 64 divided by 5 equals 11!
In checking; 5 times 11 must be 55, but one is borrowed from the rightmost 5 and added to the leftmost 5 resulting in the correct 64! See how much fun Climate Science can be!
All the best! -will-

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Robk

I knew someone could do it. Well done.

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Gee Aye

Numberwang!

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But, but, but is not 63%, 3²×7 or (1-1/e); (e-1)/e, in percent much more ‘scientific’, looking? Is such not the wideband thermal emissivity of everything?

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Mike

“much more ‘scientific’, looking?

“Face2Face: Real-time Face Capture and Reenactment of RGB Videos (CVPR 2016 Oral) ”

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Mike April 25, 2016 at 12:45 am
“much more ‘scientific’, looking?”

Yes What else jew guys gots?
Hey guys we gots another Mike hooked!! What now to do? Cooked, veggimented, boiled, parboiled, skewered, roasted, braised, perhaps even evaporated or ‘spolded!

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Roy Hogue

So now we can become the “talking” from the mouth of some other talking head? Just think of the fun we could have with, say John Cook and others. Mind boggling, both the technology and the possibility for mischief.

Unfortunately what you could do to someone else with this, that person could do to you in reprisal — something to think about when you can do something like this Face2Face thing appears to allow.

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KinkyKeith

Mr Jorgan.

I remember you being on the blog a week or so back.

At that time , as I recall, you had a first name but it no longer seems to be in use.

?

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Roy Hogue

Rereke et al,

If you mean divisible with no remainder, an integer result, then…

Since 64 is a power of 2 it’s obvious without even checking it that it is divisible only by powers of 2, n = 1, 2, 4, 8, …32; n < 64. No other divisors produce an integer result.

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Roy Hogue

n <= 64, not n < 64.

Where some of the numbers posted by Peter C come from is a question I can't answer. But a quick check on most of them will tell you they don't produce integer results.

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“Since 64 is a power of 2 it’s obvious without even checking it that it is divisible only by powers of 2, n = 1, 2, 4, 8, …32; n < 64. No other divisors produce an integer result."
Roy, you seem to be deliberately ignoring Post modern physics, new math,, and Climatology! shame, shame, see:
Is it 04-01-20something yet?

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Roy Hogue

Yes, I’ve seen Post Modern Math before. It’s too bad computers have never seen it.

In the meantime, it’s not nice to try to fool your resident computer know-it-all and pain in the bit.

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Roy Hogue

I think powers of 2 are unique in that way. Powers of any other base don’t follow such a simple rule as far as I’ve tested them.

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ianl8888

Depends on where he “centres” the data (see Climate Audit https://climateaudit.org/2016/04/19/gavin-schmidt-and-reference-period-trickery/#comments)

As far as I can tell (and it’s not really statistically difficult at all), if once centres time-dependent data on today, then tomorrow’s data will not look much different. But if one centres it earlier (say, 1979, the start of the satellite data era), then tomorrow’s data is in a different galaxy to any “predictive” attempt from 1979.

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Rereke Whakaaro

Yes, well, it seems that I owe all of you good folks an apology.

I get bored easily, and yesterday (my time) was a particularly boring day, so I took the largest positive square below one hundred, and did a play on words with the word, “whole”.

I never expected a thred to be created because of it. But I guess you guys must have been bored too.

Now, where I am, and in my time, we are commemorating ANZAC Day. The mass suicide/extermination of millions of young able-bodied men, in the first significant war in one hundred years.

Stefan Molyneux, over at Freedom Radio, has a perspective of what the First World War meant at the time, and how it still impacts, and indeed directs to some extent, the political decisions of today, one hundred years later.

The current hype about climate change, and the conservation of resources, et al, are all part of trying to put the genie, that was released in the first world war, back in the bottle.

Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to name the genie.

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Graeme No.3

Well, if you know of a better whole, go to it.

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Rereke Whakaaro

It runs for a little over an hour.
[Extraneous quote marks removed] -Fly

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Mark D.

The Genie is now called the United Nations. Following WW1 they had a different name. League of something (borrowed something blue)……..

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OriginalSteve

The powers that be use war to shape society…. Now we have a communist UN…. Work it out…..

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Mark D.

From the US; please accept my strongest appreciation for what ANZAC constituents sacrificed. They are heroes.

Keeping civilization on a safe and sane course is not easy nor for the faint of heart.

Cheers!

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Mark D.

Today is the most solemn day on the Australian calendar as we remember.

I have a Post of my own you might like to read. At that Post from today, I also have a number of links to other events around Australia as well.

The link at the bottom is about LtGen Sir John Monash, and that one would be of interest to you as an American, because it mentions how the U.S. has a special association with Australia from that First Great War.

ANZAC Day – 25th April 2016

Tony.

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Ted O'Brien.

I heard an interview of Peter Cundle, who did the Gardening Show on Oz’s ABCTV, about the time he retired in 2009 aged 82. He was born in Manchester in 1927, his father rarely worked. The Great Depression. He said as kids they were very poor, but didn’t know they were poor. He had a wonderful childhood.

He reached conscription age after the fighting had ended in Europe, but was called up and trained anyway. He was sent to Germany and later Palestine, after spending six months in solitary in one of Tito’s jails after escorting a young lady too far at the border. in 1948 he was demobilised, leaving him in a queue of millions of other unemployed people wanting to get to Australia. Then he discovered that if you joined the Australian army you could get straight to Australia.

So he joined up, and was sent to Egypt for a few months, then on to Australia. Six weeks later, as a fully trained soldier, he found himself in the trenches in Korea with a lot of other Poms who thought they were getting a quick trip to Australia.

In Korea the Australians, including those Poms and the Kiwis, again performed heroic deeds, and again in Viet Nam. It was notable that in the great battles that the Australians were involved in, their success relied very heavily on the Kiwi artillery.

I wasn’t at all involved, but it seemed to me that the Australians, lacking the huge industrial base of the old world and the US, were forced to rely more on their manpower, their ingenuity, and each other. A friend who was in Viet Nam told me that the Americans did not look after their men well, they were not well trained. We seemed to see this again in Iraq more recently, where, after making too many mistakes in a heavy handed approach, the US sought advice from the Australians.

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Mark D.

Tony, thank you for the history. It is important that we do not forget.

I especially liked to read that LtGen Sir John Monash, upon his death had such a large funeral turnout. He truly must have been a worthy leader to gain such respect and admiration.

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Wayne Job

Indeed Mark D as TonyfromOz said the U.S. forces in WW1 were not really involved until the end. The Germans launched about a one million man push, the English and French started running, the Ozzies had recently told the English to F off and allow us to command our own forces, as they were using us as cannon fodder.
Our blokes dug in to stop the germans and a call went out to all our troops to head to our front. The yanks saw our troops heading to the front and asked what was going on, when our boys told them they asked [ without orders ] if they could join us, our blokes told them OK but they had to were our hats, so they joined in.
Strange as it may seem our little band of ozzies and a few yanks stopped a million strong german army. To this day there are primary schools in rural France that run up the ozzie flag and the tricolour every morning for what we and some of you Yanks did.

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Glen Michel

What history!

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Wayne Job,

as patriotic as what you say might sound, it didn’t really happen much like that at all.

The main turning point where the Americans actually joined the fight was on July 4th 1918 at the Battle Of Hamel, and the main planning for that Battle was all done by the Australian, LtGen John Monash. It was all over in 93 Minutes, and a mammoth success. 1000 Americans joined the Battle, at Monash’s request, and on that particular day.

With the success of that, Monash was then tasked for the huge Battle of Amiens, again a huge victory, and again with the Americans as well.

At the end of that Battle, the German, Ludendorff called it the blackest day in the German War effort, realised that the War was lost and began the retreat, chased now by Monash, who at the Hindenburg line had 210,000 Australian troops at his command as well as others from other Countries, and also commanding 50,000 Americans.

This is just a small fraction of what happened, taken from the Roland Perry bio on Monash.

Further detailed at this link, my own Post on Monash.

Remembrance Day And The Importance Of Australia’s General Sir John Monash

Tony

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Wayne Job

Thanks Tony for the follow up, my comment was about what happened on the very first days of the German push, we did stop and surprise them. Your good history lesson was about what followed. Cheers

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Dennis

You have reminded me of a very funny comment made by former PM Gillard when she was in office. She told a media gathering that Treasurer Swan had just advised her that Australia had retained the “three gold star rating” (credit rating), she was very happy.

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Another Graeme

Dennis, the thought of being happy about 3 gold stars gave me a flashback to early primary school, then I considered the irony of your comment in that context

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Roy Hogue

Quite a loss.

I didn’t care for his music that I was exposed to when he first became popular and hardly ever heard his name because of that lack of interest. And yet his popularity and the comments of his fans make me wonder, if I had known his music better would my life have been the richer for it? But he leaves a large recorded heritage so it’s not too late to get to know him and his music.

Rest in Peace, Prince Rogers Nelson.

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Another Graeme

Like you Roy, I was never a fan. However, as a music lover I can appreciate his talent as a singer song writer and a musician competent with multiple instruments. He has made a significant contribution to contemporary music and no doubt will be sorely missed.

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ianl8888

Try

as a requiem. I find the black spiritual wailing far better music than Prince ever made

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Roy Hogue

And your 4th link in the list says it has been removed.

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Here’s one link that works – at least for now, (with lyrics – some misspelled):

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Well, Prince took it down. He must be alive somewhere like Elvis…

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handjive

“But life is just a party and parties weren’t meant to last”
RIP Prince

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TonyFromOz

An appraisal of the British energy situation.

And…

A Monty Pythonesque clip from Radio New Zealand where an ex-Meridian Power CEO predicts the demise of coal and gas due to the more ubiquitous use of wind and solar.

Now wonder our electricity costs are high!

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Mikky

South Australians in particular need to worry about the demise of coal and gas, more on this here: https://climanrecon.wordpress.com/2016/04/23/early-warning-system-for-south-australia/

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How will they build those submarines?

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Dennis

Only on sunny days and when the wind is not blowing too hard or too softly.

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Graeme No.3

FijiDave:

Just the usual waffle from a confused mind. In this case he is comparing the wholesale selling price of solar with the retail price of conventional generation. A rough list of wholesale costs to produce (without subsidies etc.) in dollars per MWh
Coal………………30
Gas..CCGT…….65
Nuclear………….95
Solar PV………120
Wind(onshore)140
Gas..OCGT…..160 (rough, but producers in SA only supply at over \$200)
Solar Heat…….275 (e.g. solar towers)

to convert to cents per kWh divide the figure by 10 and call it cents.
So solar PV getting down to 3 would only make it competitive with coal, without the advantages of regularity or working at night.

What he also doesn’t realize is that adding batteries INCREASES the cost. Take the example of pumped storage (hydro) which is the only large scale storage currently used, even at 75% efficiency. 4 units of solar in, 3 units out…4 by \$120 in, 3 by \$160 out. These new Green Unicorn batteries, when developed, will be more efficient but will still lose some. Assuming that the new solar panels are re-engineered to deliver low voltage DC, the in-out and through the inverter will strip about 20% off. \$120 in, \$150 out.

He also assumes increased efficiency, hence lower cost, from the solar panels but any improvement will be marginal. Currently the most efficient panels being installed are 17-19% efficient. There are 25-27% in the laboratory, but the quantum limit is about 32%, so the cost won’t drop below \$75-80. (I know there are multilayer cells with higher efficiency, but their cost rules them out). Flat panel types are less efficient (~10%) but progress on boosting efficiency is slow.

At least he avoided the usual mistake of comparing renewables dumped onto the market when there is a glut, and benefiting on subsidies regardless of selling price, compared with coal etc. saddled with extra costs of maintaining supply and paying those ‘carbon taxes”.

The cost of Solar PV has been dropping for decades, but still hasn’t met the prediction in 1987 that it would be cheaper than coal by 1993.

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Rereke Whakaaro

The following is taken from the Fisher and Paykel website:

Dr Turner was appointed Chairman of the Company in February 2011 and has been a Director since November 2010. Dr Turner is a professional director and is the Deputy Chairman of Auckland International Airport, a Director of Spark Infrastructure, South Australian Power Networks and Victoria Power Networks (in Australia) and a Director of Chorus, the newly established NZ telecommunications network operator. He is also currently Chairman of Solar City NZ Limited. Dr Turner possesses extensive experience in the New Zealand energy sector. He served for 9 years as Chief Executive Officer of Meridian Energy Limited from 1999 to 2008. Prior to that, he worked as a private energy expert advising a range of large corporate clients and Government. He has previously served in a number of industry reform functions that established the current New Zealand industry structure and has had many years in senior industry operations and planning roles.

He has a PhD in Engineering and is a Distinguished Fellow of IPENZ.

My emphasis in italics.
I have not been able to determine which branch of Engineering, Dr Turner’s PhD relates to, but given his employment history I would guess it relates to communications, and not to power generation.

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Rod Stuart

Member number 85837 registration “current”.
Membership class “Distinguished Fellow”
Search reveals nothing in terms of the register.
Does not appear in the registers Chartered Professional Engineer, Electrical, Management,International Professional Engineer etc.
Dr. Turner is a “DISTFIPENZ”.
“Distinguished Fellows ​– as a Fellow of IPENZ, you’ve made an eminent contribution to leadership in engineering, technology or science over an extended period”.
I can find no other information regarding this member on our URL.

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Rod Stuart

A former MD of DesignPower, I rather suspect the discipline is electrical.

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Rod Stuart

One need only follow the money.

“Dr Turner is part owner of Waitaki Wind Limited, a company investigating wind farms in Otago”

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I mentioned in the earlier Thread that when it comes to Australian electrical power generation, of the total generation, CO2 emitting sources make up 86% of that overall total.

The U.S. has Nuclear Power as part of the mix for its power generation, and Australia does not. The only form of power generation that can deliver power on the same scale as Nuclear power is large scale coal fired power.

In the U.S. add on the Nuclear Power (large scale coal fired equivalent) to the CO2 emitting total for power generation, and it comes to, umm, wait for it ….. 86%.

The overall whole of World total for power generation has CO2 emitting fossil fuel power sources making up, umm, 86% of the whole World Total.

Odd how things correlate eh!

Incidentally, the whole of World total for renewables of choice, wind and solar power, well that comes in at a whoppingly monumenatally humungous ….. 2.4%.

After so many years and so much money, so much money, a tiny 2.4%

And do you know what?

Come the target dates for emissions reduction, that total for wind and solar will still not manage to crack 3%, and most probably will still be hovering around that 2.4%.

Why?

With China, and soon India, and other Developing Countries roaring ahead with large scale coal fired power, renewables of choice, wind and solar will struggle to keep up, let alone rise by any considerable amount. For every ONE large scale coal fired plant of 2000MW (just in China alone, just in one week alone) they would need to bring on line a Nameplate of 6000MW of wind and solar, and that’s at least 10 mega sized wind plants, just to deliver the same power to grids as that ONE coal fired plant.

Tony.

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Andrew McRae

Yeah, wind and solar are old news. All the cool kids want Wave Power now.

Only works in a handful of places, massive maintenance from sea corrosion, but at least they don’t chop birds.

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aussiepete

The leaders of Australia’s major political parties have vision. One of them wants 50% of our energy to come from renewables, whilst the other wants a 2000 kilometre long high speed train running between Melbourne and Brisbane.
I also have a vision, and that is one of a high speed train, filled with stupid politicians and their equally stupid advisors, staring ruefully out of the window of their motionless train, as they sit, becalmed in a sea of similarly motionless windmills.

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Greg S

It will never happen the second a real project (not just one of these trough feeding feasibility studies) starts every Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything (BANANA) group will find every unknown sacred site, unvisitable beauty spot, endangered soil mite, or hairy ar\$ed budgie that they can use as a delaying tactic or negotiating point. It is guaranteed employment for activists for the next few decades while taxpayer money is burned by the truckload.

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brill

Yes, agree. Worth taking the time to read.

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ianl8888

Indeed.

Absolute experience supports that.

Who is going to sell the land easements needed; who will guarantee noise levels; where will such a train actually stop; who will put up with hugely increased council rates when the train stops nowhere near you; what exactly does a Very Fast Train mean – 400km/hr or a re-pianted XPT ?

• #

For 50% renewable by 2030 requires, say, 15,000 GW equivalent of 24/7 power.

So its a line of 4 MW turbines 9,000 km. long with a 25% capacity factor, or roughly 2 rows of turbines on each side of the train from Melbourne to Brisbane. Not sure what happens when they are mainly idle which has happened frequently to the 37 current farms over March and April this year.

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So its a line of 4 MW turbines 9,000 km. long with a 25% capacity factor, or roughly 2 rows of turbines on each side of the train from Melbourne to Brisbane.

Sort of like the image at this link from three years ago, when California was debating their own high speed rail link.

Tony.

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aussiepete mentions this:

The leaders of Australia’s major political parties have vision.

They may think that they have vision, but they carefully select advisors who will only tell them what they want to actually hear.

They have their serious faces on when they say that they want a VFT, and then with their faces looking just as serious, they mention it will be powered by renewables.

Then they also look serious when they tell us that they have their Desalination plants running full bore, and again, with faces just as serious, they tell us they also are powered by renewables.

Then, again with the serious faces, they say that we need to replace those coal fired power plants with renewables.

The earlier ones, the VFT and desal are incompatible with the latter, closing down coal fired power.

If they seriously do want a VFT and to be able to run those desal plants at their capacity, then they are stuck with coal fired power. There is just no alternative. They have to have them, no matter what they say. Backing down from that is not their option, so they just press on regardless with whatever they want to say, what they think that the public wants to hear.

Both of the former need power that is ABSOLUTELY reliable, and available ALL the time, so the intermittent nature of renewables of any type immediately negates the constant use of VFT and Desal.

Until these people actually have advisors who will tell them the brutal truth, and with enough conviction to make these politicians tell the public the truth, then I’m afraid we are destined to be led by what can only be termed as pathologic@lly mendacious leaders, of any political persuasion.

Tony.

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Another Ian

Tony

“The leaders of Australia’s major political parties have vision.”

So does a race horse with blinkers on – of a sort.

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Another Ian

And I forgot to mention that “government enthusiasms” make more sense IMO than “government wisdom”

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On the current status of the turbines, the 37 windfarms are producing 150 MW, or 4 % of capacity. Wouldn’t even get the TGV out of the station, perhaps tommorrow.

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The Ill-fated King Island Wind Project

This was proposed by Hydro Tasmania in 2012 to build Australia’s largest Windfarm using 200 x 3 MW wind turbines. It received the support of about 60 % of the residents, but was opposed by the rest.

It was to be connected to Victoria by undersea cable and the electricity sold to the national grid. Anyhow the project was abandonned in 2014 as it was deemed to uneconomic at that time (a change in government?) and perhaps due to the considerable hostility of some islanders.

It is curious inasmuch if ever there was a productive site for a windfarm King Island is the place due to winds from all directions, but the projected yields from the farm seemed to be much higher than normal: 2,400 GW h annually from 600 MW of turbines is a capacity factor of 45% which is very high. For the past 2 months the current turbines on King Is. have been operating at around 23% capacity!

The other salient point was the large amount of land that would have been required, about 8,000 ha. or 80 sq. km. which was a little under 10% of the whole island. Problems such as low frequency noise on the locals and their dairy cattle, the large amount of bird kill and the fact the turbines would have been seen from all parts of the island probably contributed to its demise.

In the light of the fate of this proposal being cancelled due economics, and probably local concerns, where are all the windfarms going to be put as part of Australia’s commitment to the Paris agreement signed off by Minister Hunt the other day? If this proposal for 600 MW was uneconomic what future proposal will be economic without massive subsidy from the electricity users?

• #

Bass Strait is an excellent place for wind turbines.

Can’t you see that the problems of area and sporadic availability of wind power are easily solved?

It just takes a little time and money. What’s the difference between just one to two trillion dollars on such a project compared to the FORTY BILLION spent on the 4 nuclear power for the equivalent amount of electrical power production?

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Oh yeah! Look at the date.

Cue Curly

Tony.

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Look at the date.

It’s just as credible as BZE publications.

Deliberately

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Rereke Whakaaro

Vattenfall translates to Waterfall. Don’t the coincidences just keep on popping up?

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ROM

Bernd Felsche @ #5.1

Bass Strait is an excellent place for wind turbines.

Turbine nacelles would be ideal for marine applications!

Just weld a chain onto them and use them as boat anchors

Placed end to end the towers would be an excellent armoured protective tube to run the Tasmanian / Victorian Basslink power connector through.
And some REAL big sharks could take up residence in those upended deep Bass Strait wind turbine towers so satisfying the environmental concerns about the tower’s placement.

The blades being hollow and veeeeerry long would probably float heavy end down. So they could be used as a very cheap subsurface ARGO supplementary buoy to drift over the oceans.
With sensors down at the heavy ended bottom and transmitters at the top, they could provide surface and sub surface ocean conditions over the worlds’ oceans until thankfully, they finally sank, probably spearing a few completely innocent whales, who were just doing what whales do down there, on their way down.

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“thankfully, they finally sank, probably spearing a few completely innocent whales, who were just doing what whales do down there, on their way down.”

Naa! The ocean has way to much viscosity for such! However A small pod of adolescent whales might collect 4-6 of such and fashion a warp7 submarine! That would attract the girlie whales better’n a pickup truck!

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RB

+more nesting sites for the hairy-ar#ed budgie. win-win!

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Mike

The real money will be in disposing of nuclear spent fuel. Currently, spent nuclear fuel is removed/disposed sporadically by earthquakes like the one in Japan.

One must be patient and store the spent nuclear fuel on site to wait for earthquakes and fortunately people are patient.

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Mike

In response to: “compared to the FORTY BILLION spent on the 4 nuclear power for the equivalent amount of electrical power production?

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Analitik

When governments come to their senses, the spent fuel rods will be reprocessed and burnt in generation 4 reactors. Meanwhile, most are safely stored on site, avoiding transport difficulties.

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Mike

It costs nothing to transport nuclear fuel using earthquakes. No human intervention is required whatsoever.

At hartford high level nuclear waste is transprted using corrosion which also costs nothing. The storage facilities simply corrode and the waste transports itself, all by itself.

The answer to pollution is dilution.

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With respect to this now failed Wind Plant proposed for King Island.

That 45% Capacity Factor (CF) is a modelled CF based on almost perfect conditions. Not once, anywhere on Planet Earth has a new wind plant ever delivered it’s proposed modelled CF, and that CF only decreases over time, by way more than a coal fired plant will decrease over time.

And very few people were ever willing to mention the cost for this one wind plant.

\$2.2 Billion.

And this was at a time when people were saying that wind was getting cheaper all the time, and was even cheaper than new coal fired power.

HELE (UltraSuperCritical) coal fired power is ….. NEW coal fired power.

We cannot base costs on what happens in China, as they can construct them far cheaper than in our already Developed World. In China they can build them for an AUD equivalent \$2 Billion, but for a real World cost we need to look elsewhere, actually in the Developed World.

So then, Germany is now constructing them. One of the first was the Neurath Plant, and the cost for that plant was an equivalent AUD cost of \$3.5 Billion.

So, far and away more expensive than this King Island Wind Plant, but hey with King Island delivering a (modelled) 2,400GWH of power to the grid, then parity in dollar terms would mean that the Coal fired plant would have to deliver 1.5 times that King Island power, eh!

So King Island Power multiplied by 1.5 comes in at 3600GWH.

Actual power delivery from Neurath (actual, not modelled here) is 17,900GWH, or King Island multiplied by 7.45.

But costs aren’t everything eh! They have to buy their coal.

Even so, that multiplier would still never even come down to be be even remotely close to the wind power equivalent.

And the coal fired plant has double the life span, so now that multiplier is up to just on 15 times the delivered power.

So now, that’s 15 times the actual delivered life span power. The Nameplate is only a multiplier of 3.66, and that power delivery is based on their much overstated CF for their wind plant.

So for King Island to be cost effective with new coal fired power, then the cost for King Island would need to be \$146 Million ….. not \$2.2 Billion.

Tony.

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Rod Stuart

Before the dust settles on Smart Grid, both consumers and utilities may learn some sharp lessons about government intervention: When the government shows up on your doorstep and offers to help you save money, everyone knows that is an oxymoron. Government does not function to help people or companies to save money or to be more efficient; rather, it functions to maintain and increase its own power and control over its citizens.

Tony, the goal is not to minimise cost.
Th ideology has something far more sinister in mind.

• #
Another Ian

Rod

Second link in #4.1.1 seems to fit

• #
Rod Stuart

Ian
That reminds me of the New Zealand Government of Robert Muldoon, 1975 to 1984 “THINK BIG“.
It always ends in tears.

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Another Ian

I think the race horse of that name did OK?

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Rereke Whakaaro

Well Robert certainly put on a bit of weight, towards the end of his life.

And he was never what you might call “slim”.

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Analitik

And the coal fired plant has double the life span

That’s pretty poor if the Neurath HELE Plant only has a 30 year lifespan

• #
Mike

Gurdjieff: “Man is given a definite number of experiences—economizing them, he prolongs his life.”

Or in other words, it is “efficiency” that prolongs the life of almost anything at all this includes the life span of resources, and even coal plants.

In nature, the real world, all is done efficiently.

Consider how efficient a Lilly is.

Or consider the Lilly’s in general.

• #
Manfred

In New York, preaching to the orchestra in their concert hall, he announces the solution to the problem they composed.
And to think inzest is considered illegal.

• #
Roy Hogue

DeCaprio and the UN, a marriage made in hell.

• #
handjive

The 2016 GBR Coral Bleaching Event.

Prof. Terry Hughes tweets twits: “The first bleaching on the #GreatBarrierReef was in 1998. There is no “cycle”

Wait. What?

BoM: “Bleaching has been observed on the Great Barrier Reef since 1982 …”

Prof. Terry Hughes tweets twits:

“I showed the results of aerial surveys of #bleaching on the #GreatBarrierReef to my students, And then we wept.”
. . .
Q. What did the students weep about?

The cost of the aerial surveys:
“A return flight from Sydney to Perth per-person emits about one tonne of CO2, of which 400 kg will still remain in the atmosphere after 100 years, and about 200 kg will still be airborne in 1,000 years.” – Pep Candell, Executive director, Global Carbon Project at CSIRO

Or …

The quality of the teaching when the Professor fails to quote the correct history of the subject being taught. Twice.
He repeats the fail again further down the tweets in second link.
. . .
A. Hopefully the students were weeping about the 97% standard of science being taught to them.

• #
Dennis

Any mention of the Crown Of Thorns Starfish attacking the GBR?

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• #
handjive

Scientists just discovered a 1,000-km-long coral reef at the mouth of the Amazon

“Yager wasn’t even there to look for the reefs.
She was using the RV Atlantis to look into how Amazonian plume was affecting carbon dioxide absorption in the ocean.

The discovery makes the reef the most northernmost known in Brazil.”

• #
RB

As much as 93% of the Great Barrier Reef has been damaged by coral bleaching, Australian scientists revealed this week, in a report based on extensive aerial and underwater surveys

reported in the media.
GBR Marine Authority claims 50%bleaching in 1998 with 5% damage.

• #
PeterPetrum

I watched the last of three programs on the Barrier Reef by David Attenborough on the ABC (I know!) last night. From a cinematographic point of view the programs have been terrific, and David his usual competent self. However, as expected, last night’s program was about the “threats” to the reef. All the usual stuff was brought out. There were some measured comments by some scientist interviewed, but David kept on insisting that the “rapid” change to sea levels and temperatures in the last 40 years (no actual facts quoted) have signed the death warrant for the reef. He compounded this misinformation by exhorting his viewers to “take action now” to save the Reef. Sigh. The film was shot last year sometime – presumably before the Reef was declared to be no longer in danger – or perhaps not. Who cares about the facts when there is a good story to be made.

• #
Ruairi

The gasses that steamed coal dust can expel,
Make power cheaper through an oxide cell.

Some countries set a strict emissions goal,
Which they ignore,then buy up all the coal.

The naive Greens think China might come ’round,
To leaving coal forever underground.

Those surveys that suggest the end is nigh,
Make less folk fearful of a falling sky.

Let’s hope that climate science can break free,
From warmist chains in recent history.

They search in vain,all those who hope to meet,
The average man and woman in the street.

• #
handjive

Does anyone remember the 97% Doomsday climate scientists saying this during the 1976-98 warming?:

Oceans control the planet’s temperature
. . .
Originally published: February 1, 1976 – Stephen Schneider: The Genesis Strategy
[ http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/schneider-genesis.html ]

State-of-the-art climate models unequivocally predict that such a doubling of CO2 would raise the surface temperature of the earth.
~ ~ ~
NASA, April, 2016:

There is far too much focus on surface temperatures.
They are but one measure of warming.
All other measures . . . continue unabated.”
. . .
After 40 years of surface air temperatures to measure Doomsday Global Warming, why would NASA then say that?

Perhaps because there has been a “*non-significant warming trend over 1998–2012

(*quote UN-IPCC WG1 AR5, chapter 2, page 192)

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter02_FINAL.pdf

• #
Manfred

Mildly entertaining story in The Telegraph.
Australian PM Malcolm T (Resistance in Futile), coincidentally with the middle name Bligh, poised to take kontrol of Norfolk Island, historical resettlement home of some of the Bounty mutineers, in spite of the majority of the locals (68%) opposing direct rule from Australia.
It seems Australia may face the wrath United Nations Special Committee on Decolonisation …and perhaps a slap with a wet fish? Bligh is after all the UN’s prodigal son of sorts.

• #
el gordo

Mine too, it is what it is.

I put this new Scafetta abstract up on the other thread and you will notice the cycle years 6.6, 7.4, 14, 20 and 60.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117716300084

• #
Streetcred

By Ed Caryl

There have been several reports of temperature data fudging by the authorities, the most recent by Paul Homewood on several stations in Paraguay.

While exploring long temperature records in Australia, I discovered a particularly egregious example of temperature changing at Adelaide Airport. GISS now offers easy access to their several sets of data for each station: unadjusted (I assume this is the raw data.), adjusted (I assume this is after TOBs, time of observation, and moving adjustments), adjusted after cleaning (whatever that is), and the final step, after adjustments, cleaning, and homogenization.

• #
Peter C

Ed,

Your GISS temperature series shows a continuous record at Adelaide Airport since 1900!

Our Bureau of Meteorology gives records from Adelaide Airport since 1955. Temperatures were recorded at Adelaide West Terrace form 1887 to 1979.

I suspect that GISS may have stitched the two records together. Adelaide Airport is further inland from the sea and is hotter on average. It may that GISS achieved almost 2 degrees C of warming by that sleight of hand.

• #
el gordo

Scaper is hinting that the government is going to do some heavy borrowing from the China Infrastructure Bank and begin a trans continental railway system for freight and passengers.

• #
pat

24 Apr: Bolt Blog: Seeming good, achieving dark
Brendan Pearson, chief executive of the Minerals Council, points out the harsh consequences of dreamy green demands that we ban coal and switch to renewable power:
“Let’s do the maths. Last year wind and solar ­energy produced the equivalent of nine days of global primary energy needs. Coal produced 109 days and fossil fuels combined produced 313 days of the world’s ­annual primary needs. Despite all these power sources, 1.3 billion people still missed out on electricity and a further 1.7 billion only had partial access…
“Halting or limiting coal or fossil fuels output will simply mean that those with no or partial access to electricity would have to wait much longer in the dark.
“That is an uncomfortable but incontrovertible fact. If you limit something or make it more expensive to the poor then you are delaying or denying that access. Not just for weeks, months or years, but generations. Hundreds of millions of people will live shorter, more miserable lives as a result of the choices of the comfortable and warm.”…ETC

23 Apr: UK Independent: £18bn Hinkley Point nuclear power station plan could be ‘coming to a grinding halt’
Controversial power station is a key part of the Government’s plan to ‘make sure the lights stay on’
by John Lichfield, Ian Johnston
The French electricity giant EDF has thrown the British government’s energy strategy into disarray by reportedly delaying – possibly until next year – a decision on whether it will build a new £18bn nuclear power station at Hinkley Point in Somerset.
Jean-Bernard Lévy, the head of EDF, has bowed to pressure from unions and senior company engineers and agreed to seek a fresh opinion from the company’s union-management consultative council, the respected French newspaper Le Figaro reported…
However senior engineers and unions at the largely state-owned French company fear the project could destroy the struggling business. They have demanded a delay of at least two years to allow uncertainties about the experimental high-pressure water reactors planned for Hinkley to be resolved…
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/18bn-hinkley-point-nuclear-power-station-plan-could-be-coming-to-a-grinding-halt-a6997131.html

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James Murphy

According to this (and numerous other reports), EDF is facing increasing financial difficulties, as is Areva, and will receive a 3 billion euro handout from the French government. (not sure where the other billion euros is going from)

If I was being cynical, I wonder how much of this is to do with the apparently successful demonisation of any energy sources which are not ‘green’, and how much this limits the willingness of financiers to become involved in such projects.

• #
pat

23 Apr: UK Telegraph: Christopher Booker: Does the Committee on Climate Change want to blow us all up?
Some publicity has alighted on the latest brilliant idea from the “greenies” as to how we can comply with the Climate Change Act by “decarbonising” our economy. Ofgem paid £300,000 for a study suggesting that, instead of cooking with CO2-emitting natural gas, we should switch to carbon-free hydrogen. A £2 billion pilot project for Leeds would show how natural gas, or methane, could be converted to hydrogen by piping away all its nasty CO2 to be buried in holes under the North Sea.
This scheme has already been smiled on in principle by the green zealots of the Committee on Climate Change, run by Lord Deben (aka John Gummer), their only real reservation being that it would be rather expensive. But there are one or two other practical problems that would have to be taken into account…READ ON
PLUS (scroll down): Hurrah for the downfall of Raj Pachauri
Although it has been widely reported in India, there has been ***strangely little notice paid here to the downfall of one of the most bizarre figures ever to have paraded across the world stage…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/23/does-the-committee-on-climate-change-want-to-blow-us-all-up/

***CAGW-infested-invested MSM does not do negative news regarding anything remotely related to CAGW, Christopher.

• #

The Barrier Reef is 93% damaged. Scientists are at a loss to explain the missing 4% of damage, but they suspect it could be hidden in the deep oceans.

Meanwhile The Greens say in order to save the reef, the Adani coal project must be stopped. The potential damage from the project is apparently so great, the actual future damage has “time leaked” into the present. So it is vital the project is stopped to avoid any further damage from the future getting through.

• #

The cost of electricity is now so high in Australia it must be almost economical to make your own.

Does anyone know if it would be practical and economic to power a generator for your home that was powered by your domestic natural gas supply?

• #
Another Ian

David

Yes, either lpg or ng if you have the appropriate conversion kit. Chiefio has posted some on this in wrt California but I don’t have a link. Have a look at his topics.

Later

Some in here

• #
Graeme No.3

Dave:

I was given a figure in late February for 50-55¢ per kWh for a petrol driven diesel generator (new).

• #
Robk

Those figures are pretty right, especially if you claim the off road rebate which applies to power generation. I have run businesses off grid most of my working life (40 +yrs). Bear in mind the hassle of oil changes every 200 hrs or so, battery cycle life, engine rebuild at 15-20k hrs. It’s pretty much all in the price, if you do the work yourself. You can pick up a good diesel Genset 10-15kVA for around \$5k. With solar and wind you need to do less work. My Genset runs about 10hrs per year.

• #
Robk

For a suburban installation with NG available I’ve often wondered how a battery storage with one of those small Stirling generators (about 1kw) that are made in New Zealand primarily for yacht power supply would go. I think they do them in diesel or gas, they make as much noise as a fridge. The heat would be useful in winter.

• #
bobl

Oh no, it’s much cheaper than that – even a single cylinder Diesel can get something of the order of about 1KWh out of 260 grams and density of diesel is about 832 g/lt.

832/260 = 3.2kWh per litre.

Yesterdays street price was 98.9c per lt less the 38.9c rebate = 60c per lt – so the raw fuel cost @ 260grams per kWh is 60/3.2 c/kWh = 18.8c per kWh.

Now the issue here is that the generator needs to run at its most efficient point supplying energy while it’s running to get that sort of economy, so you need to use a battery system to store the generated energy then invert that rather than have the genset supplying the variable load. You run the generator most efficiently to charge the battery then supply the variable load from there.

It’s possible to construct such a system for under say \$3K remembering that unlike solar you can recharge the battery as often as you like so it can be much smaller probably get away with at little as 3kWh of battery capacity which is say 300AH @ 12V.

• #
Graeme No.3

David:

A snippet from E.M. Smith (Chiefio)
Useful Metric: On one occasion for the Honda Diesel, I discovered that the cost per kW-hr in cents was the same as the \$/gallon shifted by a decimal. So \$4.00 Diesel gave 40 Cent /kW-hr electricity. That ought to hold for other Diesels (or close.)
As we’re headed for 50 Cent tariff Real Soon Now and Diesel is under \$US4 (per US gallon approx. 85% of imperial gallon or calculate per litre), it will shortly be cheaper to run your own Diesel here than buy from the utility. About parity even before that if you get untaxed offroad Diesel). Nat Gas here is running about \$US1.50 / Gallon of Gas Equivalent (GGE) and is the cheapest. It’s already economical to make your own electricity from Nat Gas (on a direct fuel basis – not on a full maintenance and capital amortization though.. but close).

• #
Rick Will

It is economic to go off grid with solar and battery in residences with suitable roof space now. The most economic situation is to include a small generator that is likely to run few days each year. The ROI is better than the current interest rate on TDs.

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Robk

That would be with the subsidies. Battery life is still an issue, which is where a little Stirling Genset might help if run on NG.

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Rick Will

Still economic without subsidies. My off grid system is unsubsidised. I use it to run fridge and freezer continuously and I made my own hot water system that uses the excess off grid solar. It turns on when batteries are 90% charged and off when they are 80% charged so just the top end. It makes temperate most days but it automatically switches to grid if heating for 2 hours if it has not made temperature by 6pm. The storage is a 200l drum and I have a double copper coil to act as a heat exchanger. The drum has 200mm of glass wool around it and under it plus 400 on top. The heat loss is about 1kWh a day through autumn days. You cannot buy any with such low standby losses. The hour water heater cost me \$400 in materials.

I have a 5kWh rated LiFePO4 battery. On full discharge it gives 6kWh still after 3 years. It should get 20 years based on cycle life and usage. It very rarely goes below 50% DoD. I have LiPoly batteries that still give more than rated capacity after 8years but they are not cycled often.

My lithium battery has a cycle efficiency around 95% at the loads I pull on it.

There are lots of smart ways to set up to make the best use of sunshine. Our house is not double glazed. That would likely be economic to reduce the size of the electrical system ifI went of grid completely. Our biggest energy requirement is house heating with the old, inefficient central gas heating system.

It would likely be lower cost in the long run to convert the cooktop to LPG rather than the current NG if we went off grid. The induction tops would require a large inverter and more battery capacity than I have at present. Existing oven is also a beast so it is not currently economic to run off grid. The demand side is as important as the supply side in determining the overall economics.

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Robk

Rick,
My Genset runs about 10hrs per year but I have 80kWh of battery, 3kw solar, 3kW wind(on a 20m mast). I live in a sunny and windy location.

• #
Rod Rajik

I’ve been in Texas all my life over 60 years.we have been having almost no winter this year . Same thing happened about 10 years ago .We never had temperatures so hot when I was younger .I believe what I see not what you say.
With a birthday in august in Texas you are very aware of how hot it was .117 degrees never happened in Texas until the last 7 years or so. Are you saying that the ice isn’t melting in the arctic or in Greenland.

• #
Mark D.

If only you had lived through the 1920′s and 30′s.

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Gee Aye

Wasting your time. This is a data and evidence driven blog here. No one accepts simple anecdotes and we all know the problems with trusting subjective memory. You will find that all comments such as these have been heavily criticised in the past.

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Peter C

Gee Aye,

This is a data and evidence driven blog here. No one accepts simple anecdotes and we all know the problems with trusting subjective memory. You will find that all comments such as these have been heavily criticised in the past.

I agree with you!

• #
Mari

With a cursory check of Google, I find the record high for Texas at one site to be 120C, set in 1936 and met in 1994.
http://texasalmanac.com/topics/environment/extreme-weather-records

A brief history of high and low points in Texan weather – https://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2011/11/29/a-history-of-drought-and-extreme-weather-in-texas/

And remember – Texas is HUGE. You could have a blizzard in one spot, a heat wave in a another, drought here, and a monsoon bearing down there, with normal weather in between it all, on the same day. (Texas is an exaggeration, size and tale wise)

• #

texas is smaller than Australia’s 4th largest state of territory.

• #

There you go again leaf not checking your facts. Actually smaller than the 5th largest, behind WA, QLD, NT, SA and NSW and 6th largest if you include antarctic territory.

Anyway what was your point? Sounds like a smug left wing comment.

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Mark D.

Anyway what was your point [leaf] ? Sounds like a smug left wing comment.

Naw, it’s a Smug Leaft wing comment. Though the first step is to recognize and admit isn’t it?

• #

Oh yes… I’ll book myself some therapy.

re your earlier comment about Monash… using Monash as a central point of reference would be a great way to understand a huge chunk of Australian history – and military history would only be a small part of it

• #
Mark D.

I’ll book myself some therapy.

I’m not qualified but I’m here for you.

• #

I know. I appreciate all that you’ve done

• #
pat

NYT heavy-hitter Davenport crafts it as a fait accompli:

24 Apr: NYT: Coral Davenport: Carbon Pricing Becomes a Cause for the World Bank and I.M.F.
But the leaders of the World Bank, the I.M.F. and other major global institutions say cutting emissions enough to stave off the worst effects of climate change will not be possible unless all fossil fuel polluters are forced to pay for the carbon dioxide they emit…
“There is now an overwhelmingly obvious scientific consensus that the more carbon pollution we put into the air the more impact it has on warming the massive melting of the Arctic, the cycles of droughts and flooding, the die-offs of coral reefs,” the World Bank’s president, Jim Yong Kim, said in an interview. “And to our economists, who have been studying this for quite some time, there is an equally obvious consensus that putting a price on carbon pollution is by far the most powerful and efficient way to reduce emissions.”
He added, “We strongly urge people to prepare for the carbon pricing that is to come.”…
***The World Bank’s central mission is to alleviate global poverty, and in a twist on that mission, bank leaders have identified climate change as a key driver of poverty. A World Bank report last year concluded that climate change could beggar 100 million more people by 2030…
Any policy that drives up the cost of fossil fuels can be expected to generate intense opposition. In the United States, voters — especially in the depleted middle class — are leery of the economic pain, and political groups funded by the billionaire brothers Charles G. and David H. Koch stand in the way…
Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the I.M.F., called carbon pricing the “crown jewel” of efforts to mitigate climate change…
Mr. Kim, the World Bank president, acknowledged that carbon pricing would come with burdens including higher energy costs.
“These policy reforms may be difficult,” he said. “And it is difficult, politically. But we are an organization that is completely committed.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/24/us/politics/carbon-pricingbecomes-a-cause-for-the-world-bank-and-imf.html?_r=0

***driven into poverty by the CAGW policy scams!
btw Mr. Kim, hundreds of millions of people (billions if people understood the cost) are COMMITTED to stopping your organisations implementing these plans.

• #
Rod Rajik

I just realized that Shackleton’s Hut, Cape Royds is not covered in snow as one of your commenters pointed out this would mean the arctic is not accumulating snow.Or it could have something to do with something called a snow drift.
another example No one was injured when the Lockheed Constellation ‘Pegasus’ crash landed onto the icy fields of Antarctica on October 8, 1970. The ill-fated flight had run into a storm and was forced to crash land in impossible weather conditions. Where the aircraft dramatically slid to a halt nearly 35 years ago is the exact same position it lies today, half-buried in snow.Still sticking up above the snow in the antarctic proving that the antarctic is not accumulating snow at any appreciable rate based on logic similar to another posters picture of a buried aircraft.

• #
nc

As reported by the CBC, Canada’s ABC, BBC

• #
Another Ian

Rod

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LRC_%28train%29

One of those was down at the US Dept of Transport test track in Colorado.

• #
Another Ian

Jo

#44 was in reply to #43 but isn’t nested

Is the second commenting level shut off for some reason?

• #
Another Ian

#19 ought to have been nested with #44 and not #19

• #
el gordo

‘China plans to decrease its CO2 emissions by 18 percent in the second half of the decade, according to the 13th Five-Year Plan. The government will control total energy consumption and carbon intensity, pushing for near-zero emission demonstration projects and establishing a nationwide carbon market.

“We will deepen the South-South cooperation on climate change,” said Zhang. China will launch new projects under the new South-South Cooperation Climate Fund this year to help other developing countries.

‘Ban has always praised such effort. “We must support developing countries in making this transition. The poor and most vulnerable must not suffer further from a problem they did not create,” he said during his speech.’

China Daily

• #
TdeF

The only hope is for news of this to leak out and force a new party meeting to put Abbott back. The Nationals too could force a review by withdrawing from the coalition. Now this would just speed up Malcolm’s election though and Joyce is too worried about his own seat with Windsor playing another hand.

In the preselections, Malcolm is stacking the party with his friends. Gay Green leaning progressive types. Those conservatives who ratted on Abbott are being ejected for not being Green enough and obviously untrustworthy. Their vote against Abbott counts against them in preselection as people are angry. Andrew Bolt called it Abbot’s curse when it is really Malcolm’s curse. Obviously such voters could change again and that will not be tolerated. Morrison has been treated miserably and is angry and told nothing. Mushroom farming. He is in the death seat of politics, as befits Malcolm’s next challenger. As every day passes, the chance of removing Malcolm diminishes.

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AndyG55

“They are just afraid of flying.”

No, they absolutely LOVE flying….

… especially to conferences in exotic expensive destinations, on the taxpayer dime.

• #
TdeF

Yes, Annie, disenfranchised. It’s Malcolm’s party now. In every way. We just don’t know it yet but my conclusions explain so much about about what has been happening for the last six months. Everything which puzzled Liberal voters and Andrew Bolt but galvanized some Liberal MPs. A new future with secure seats for everyone and Labor decimated. A near secret agenda, just leaking out. The cuckoo is already tossing the others out of preselection.

Labor will be the biggest loser and Bill Shorten has no idea yet. They think Malcolm is on their side when he is on the Green’s side supported by his ABC. The Labor days of presuming Green preference support are gone. Gillard was their last PM and that with Bob Brown and the Unions dictating Labor policies with support from turncoats. All over now. Labor will become the Greens but without any power in either house, with no first preferences from anyone, unless they deal with the Nationals. Ha!

Still, things can go wrong. Especially if the Liberal party wakes up, but they will find Malcolm has the numbers in MPs and voters have no control of their MPs, even if they threaten to vote Labor. We will have forests of golden windmills.

• #
Analitik

I know it’s the weekend unthreaded post but the random reply comment allocation is taking the “unthreaded” rather too literally for my liking
[We agree. Somebody or something has broken the interleaving of comments - we are working on it.] Fly

• #
ScotsmaninUtah

A depression is good for CO2 emissions reductions.

In the 40 years in which the IEA has reported on CO2 emissions, there have been only four short periods in which emissions stood still or fell compared to the previous year. Three of those — the early 1980s, 1992 and 2009 — came in periods of economic crisis.

• #
TdeF

Was that as measured by economic activity or by measuring total CO2 directly? Did actual CO2 keep going up steadily when emissions did not?

• #

“Whoever is fortunate enough to be an American citizen came into the greatest inheritance man has ever enjoyed. He has had the benefit of every heroic and intellectual effort men have mad for many thousands of years, realized at last. I Americans should now turn back, submit again to slavery, it would be a betrayal so base the human race might better perish. The opportunity is equally great to justify the faith which animated that long travail, and bequeathed them such a noble and happy heritage.”

Isabel Patterson: The God of the Machine page 292

Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick, New Jersey 08903 1993.

Library of Congress Catalog Number: 92-32935
ISBM: 1-56000-666-8

Originally published in 1943 by G. P. Putnam.

• #
James Murphy

I see the Solar Impulse 2 is back in the air.

Part of me thinks that it is quite an impressive achievement – to design and build such an aircraft, but then, it’s not particularly revolutionary, and even one of the pilots said that he believed “…electric-powered planes, carrying up to 50 passengers short distances, would be possible within 10 years…”, so the concept is not about to..errr…take off any time soon!

The real downside is how many ‘true believers’ will see this as some sort of beacon of hope, and proof that solar power can save the planet.

• #
Kim

64 / 5 -> take 64 base 6 -> 40 base 10 -> divide by 5 -> 8

• #
Kim

Sorry – ignore – it would have to be base 7 at least.
(7) 46 , (8) 52 , (9) 58 – so – no

• #
scaper...

I believe the time for action will be after the election.

• #
TdeF

This morning Andrew Bolt sees the election as a fizzer. He could not be more wrong.

The reason Malcolm is doing nothing is that the result is already determined. Blofeld can just smile. Policies are irrelevant. So is the budget. Many Australians just want more money. They do not have to worry about debts as half pay no nett tax anyway.

The new Greens under a very quiet Di Natale are going to change sides. Malcolm is not saying anything because he might be thrown out by outraged Liberals who have not been asked. Not just the general population, the actual Liberal party members. No one will help Malcolm in his election campaign, certainly not the campaign people who worked so hard for Tony Abbott. It does not matter. Voting patterns are fixed. The swinging voters have been signed onto the other team.

This next coup will be on the Liberal party, guaranteeing them control of the senate, the destruction of Labor and a new Green Liberal party which could usher in a new era including the environmental activists, the loony left, the gay lobby, the univeristies, the public bodies like the ABC/CSIRO/BOM, the refugee activists.

Once this happens, it will be impossible to undo without splitting the Liberal party, as in the great splits of history. Gillards hero, Aneurin Bevan did the same to the British Labor party. This vision explains why Turnbull entered politics. He has all the money and fame. Now he wants to remake the Republic of Australia with himself as the first President. A surprising number of people think he is a great guy.

On the other hand you can see the amazing growth of the extreme left, with demands for more free money from Bernie Sanders followers to Jeremy Corbyn in England. Labor and the US Democrats are being dragged towards socialism. Malcolm’s move to the left soon may seem moderate in comparison to these successful extremists. It is the era of mass migration and handouts and free wide screen TVs. No one has to work when you can tax the rich. Older politicians are abandoning ship, in case you have not noticed. They can see it coming.

• #
el gordo

‘The danger with Malcolm Turnbull’s July 2 election is it’s shaping up to be a fizzer. A non-event.

‘It should be huge, but both main parties seem keen to make it an election about nothing.’

Andrew Bolt

• #
TdeF

Possibly the way the reply comments are being placed, it may be that REPLY will producing near random position. It will be interesting to see if this comment is at the end.

• #
TdeF

No, my direct comment at #91 went into #36. Now I will reply to AndyG55 at #90.

Andy, there are Malcolm’s friends and then there are others. Malcolm has a team. His objective was not just the coup against Abbott, but a vision as to where he wanted to take the Liberals. So far he has done nothing as he wants to get to an election as fast as possible. Policies are irrlevant. As Joe Bjelke Petersen said, he just has to feed the chooks. He is taking the time to destroy Morrison by directly contradicting him every time. Surely everyone has noticed.

Once in an absolute position, Malcolm and Malcolm alone will decide on policies. The idea of a mandate will be dead. Mussolini was a democratically elected leader and Italians still admire him. His ego was the problem. He was ultimately removed by parliament, imprisoned but rescued by Hitler to lead a puppet government in the North of Italy.

The old political balances will be gone after the next election. Malcolm just does not want to play his hand yet and is begging the Green left media to run quietly and they will get what they want. As a former Environment minister and the previous Minister for Communications, Malcolm knows his friends well. They do not include the Liberal party faithful.

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philthegeek

Tdef # 37

There is an alternative explanation for Turnbull’s behavior that is a bit more simple.

He is a dick with no policy background or achievements at all and thats being exposed sat the moment.

He is being and will continue to be nobbled by the far RW elements of the Liberal party who are a presenting as an un-electable rabble at the moment.

If he somehow wins on July 2, then he gets knifed soon after. Its now obvious that even if he wins, it wont be a be enough win to save his arse.

Watch the polling aggregates. Once the ALP primary starts hovering consistently @ at 37-38% the Libs will know they are toast.

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ianl8888

Ah yes, the useful !diota

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Dennis

A couple of weeks ago I read in a motoring review magazine that within twenty (20) years governments will not register private transport vehicles if they have fossil fuel powered engines.

If that is the agenda why are governments not advising consumers now, most keep their private vehicles for at least ten (10) years on average and would not want to replace their vehicle with one that cannot be registered before they plan to trade it in. On the other hand the motor vehicle industry would not be happy with the decline in sales, or governments with the decline in tax revenue streams.

However, why would we buy electric vehicles with maximum range before recharging of batteries around 400-500 Kilometres for the most expensive brands and as low as a real 100 Kilometres for the cheaper but still priced higher than fossil fuel powered vehicles? And electric vehicles that take hours to recharge the batteries.

What about towing capabilities? Many of us tow box trailers, boats and caravans and the heavier they are the more electrical power consumed and the more electric motor power is needed for towing. Even more expensive special electric towing capable vehicles needed.

And where will the extra grid electricity supplies come from. The leftists are determined to phase out fossil fuel powered electricity power stations too. Wind Turbines and Solar Systems would not, could not provide the continuous reliable supplies and supply domestic, commercial and industrial needs too.

What about rail transport? I noted that the first step is private vehicles but Diesel-Electric locomotives must be next. So where will the extra electricity come from to power the railways?

Is this another indication that the socialists are intent on collapsing the capitalist system and related advantages that has brought to the developed world? I think it does.

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Dennis

I just did the comparison at Nissan Leaf all electric car of my 2.2 Litre Diesel SUV and the much smaller Nissan sedan, I would save \$1,086.00 a year on my fuel bill for 40,000 Kilometres a year of driving.

And instead of a 5 minute or so refill of fuel tank I could do a fast charge to 80% of battery in about half an hour or much longer for a full charge, even longer for a trickle charge. And when charged fully 160 Kilometres range compared to, Highway Cycle, 1,100 Kilometres.

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Dennis

Two of my posts today have been published several posts above this?

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Sceptical Sam

This is a response to TdeF at #92 et al.

For those people who think Malcolm is the most ineffectual, do nothing Prime Minister in history, he has plotted his moves since before he entered parliament and works behind the scenes.

The only problem with that TdeF is that Turnbull has already demonstrated just how ineffectual he is. And, in doing so, has demonstrated beyond reasonable doubt that his Judgement is right off.

For example: Gordon Gretch and “Utegate” demonstrated his poor people judgement abilities. He believed a bureaucrat who was playing politics. He was sucked-in by the wretch Gretch.

Example two: He pushed for a Republic at a time when the Australian people were still very much Monarchists. His judgement was right off. In addition, he couldn’t get the Republicans to agree the method of election for El Presidente. He failed. His judgement was faulty.

Example three: He was hot-to-trot for a Carbon dioxide trading scheme of one kind or another when he was the leader of the Liberals in opposition. His judgement was right off. He misread the feeling in the Liberal party. His appalling judgement on that occasion lost him the leadership.

There are many more examples. His political and people judgement is very poor. He’s got no idea.

If he’s planning that which you suggest, I’ll back him out. On his previous track record he will fail. He’s a show pony with a tin-ear. [Snip - you know better] Fly “He’s up himself” and it affects his judgement.

Against that background, how about sending your thoughts to Barnaby. it should give him a good laugh and get him off the tractor for a bit.

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AndyG55

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TdeF

Great. Malcolm promised Truss that the Abbott policies would stay. So they have. However after the next election, the promise is over.

This is the phony period in which Malcolm is doing nothing. Even the few amazing things he says like Very Fast Train, GST increase, bank bashing, negative gearing, increasing the GST tell you he is already announcing Green policies. Joining with the Greens to remove the minority parties should have told people something. This only benefited the Greens and Labor. Then he strangely backs down, for now. Barnaby should be very worried.

Also we are all being blinded by the lack of press comment. The ABC appear disinterested in Federal politics right now, happy with Malcolm. Andrew Bolt is puzzled about all of it. There is only one explanation and it is borderline mad, Club of Rome stuff, except it fits.

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TdeF

Skeptical Sam,

“The only problem with that TdeF is that Turnbull has already demonstrated just how ineffectual he is. And, in doing so, has demonstrated beyond reasonable doubt that his Judgement is right off.”

Yes, this is what we have all been told. He was environment minister pushing an ETS in Howard’s failed election. He was head of the failed Australian Republican movement. He was leader of the Liberal party. All fails. He was younger.

Now this ineffectual man is head of the Liberal party, Prime Minister without being elected and in a position to bring an ETS any time he likes, after the election. Many ‘Liberal’ MPs will back him. After all, they voted him in. With an ETS, he can win over the Greens. Gay Marriage too. The boat turnbacks if required by his Green partners. Lots more Liberal MPs too, dependent on Green preferences as in Melbourne Ports.

The similarities to Rudd are incredible. Rudd was the son of a milk farmer. Turnbull the son of a Bondi lifeguard. Both have something to prove. Both are incredibly rich with rich powerful wives. Malcolm though is a QC and merchant banker and Rhodes Scholar, a cut above hapless Rudd. Both love selfies.

Although as you point out, Turnbull has three great failures. An ETS, the Republic and Tony Abbott. You just know what he is going to do next. This time it is planned and he has the support of at least half the MPs.

The older ones are being pushed out or just quitting like Hockey. Abbott will stay the course. Those not in Turnbull’s camp will be pushed out too. It is amazing that Morrison has not resigned, being repeatedly humiliated. After all, what can his budget say when we are borrowing \$4Bn a month and just at the Federal level? Once Turnbull owns the shop, watch the rich get taxed, superannuation, negative gearing, income taxes, temporary taxes on being rich, the end of R&D tax relief for everyone including miners. A mining tax. Just as under Gillard, the Greens will decide.

Since when did a merchant banker hate government debt?

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Sceptical Sam

[Snip - you know better] Fly

Please accept my apologies, especially those who might have read the appalling suggestion that the Prime Minister is as I described.

By way of explanation I can only suggest I’ve been desensitized by the “Safe Schools Program”.

It’s so insidious.

That’s what happens when the Liberal left forget that it’s there to mitigate pornography, bestiality, self-abuse and all other progressive green left practices.

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Dariusz

Very perceptive and Machiavellian on on the part of the do nothing PM. If this is true, then his lack of action is fully justified as far as he is concerned.
What you present is nothing to do with the welfare of the country, but again this is about his ego or lack of it.
The man is a failure also in business as to me being a merchant banker is little more than who you know and how he can use crony capitalism to enrich his ever failing ego.
This election is about the end of Australia as we know it, and for Bolty not to see this is really sad. If Bolty does not see that what sort of chance has the average person.
This is why for the first time in my free existence in Australia I won,t vote liberals. ALA in the senate. Last preference is greens, 2nd last labour and 3rd last liberal in the house of reps. I will study carefully the remaining list putting other conservatives on top.
For the average voter this is too complicated and hence the result will be predicable either labor or Libs with greens holding the balance. However, I hope the senate will be more conservative and will stop the rampaging left w/n labor and Libs.

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Sceptical Sam

The numbering system this weekend is more Unthreaded than a stripped Whitworth.

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AndyG55

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AndyG55

Ahhhh now I have it.

Anything above Tdef’s moved post acts sort of normally , whatever that is.

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AndyG55

Maybe.. let’s see.

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AndyG55

And anything below, becomes a jumbled mess.

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AndyG55

New posts (not replies to anything below Tdef’s or any below it) appear above TdeF’s in proper order and replies work properly.

Does that make sense? darned if I know

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AndyG55

And its no use replying by stating the # of the post if its below Tdef’s because the numbers keep incrementing.
[Perhaps they keep incrementing, because you are 'helping'?] Fly

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AndyG55,

Right from the first minute, TdeF’s Comment was Number One, and then that numbering changed with every new Comment, and if you read the text at the bottom of that comment from the Moderator Jo – Fly, it was moved from the earlier Thread, and because of that, as the Post was moved, no nesting of replies can occur.

Tony.

[Thank you Tony - I think you have identified the source of the problem. I originally held TdeF's comment on the Polish thread because, although it was very good, it was rather large, and off topic for the subject matter of that thread - Jo agreed, and decided to start this thread with TdeF comment instead. In that way, we hoped that more people would read it, and comment on it.
Something has obviously gone awry in that process, and it is that 'something' we will need to track down - we appreciate your keen eye, and everybody's patience] Fly

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AndyG55

“we appreciate your keen eye, and everybody’s patience] Fly ”

His keen eye.. I pointed out what was going wrong.

Tony, as usual, just described it better. !!

Now you’ve gone and upset me.. I’m all in a huff.

joking…. Hi Fly !

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AndyG55

“[Perhaps they keep incrementing, because you are 'helping'?] Fly”

Come on Fly.. I was doing my best to analyse the problem

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Ross

I’ve been thinking about TdeF’s idea all day and have just been reading comments on Breithart related to Brexit. Some are saying the British Tories are behaving like the GOP elite in the USA. What TdeF is suggesting about Turnbull has many similarities.

NB. For Australia’s sake I hope TdeF is wrong but I can see the logic in his thinking.

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TdeF

Sorry to have unthreaded the thread. I hope it is fixed now.

The very idea that the Turnbulls are just floundering around with no idea what to do is itself amazing. Even Andrew Bolt believes this. No, they are very busy and setting up the country for the next coup. It is all about the next election.

First Tony Abbott had to be removed, then his useful enemies like Bronwyn Bishop and Dennis Jensen and others who just wanted to punish Abbott but were not insiders. Then the media partners have to make sure Tony cannot come back, driven out of parliament like Hockey but he is made of sterner stuff and younger than Turnbull. The decks are clear and Bolt is only picking up the signals of what is to come, an extremely left Turnbull government. He even knows about backroom deals with the Greens, but thinks nothing of it.

Frankly I was amazed to see Mrs Turnbull, the ex Lord Mayoress of Sydney in China meeting the Chinese government. To think she is not totally engaged in Federal politics would be wrong. The Turnbull power couple are doing nothing to frighten the chickens yet. They are loading the board while not changing Abbott’s policies, so the Nationals do not take fright and destroy the coalition before they are also trapped. Little slips like increased GST, bashing the banks, a VFT, negative gearing escape and promises have to be made. Are they as good as Gillard’s absolute promises though?

Nothing is being said or asked about a carbon tax/ETS? Why? This move is absolutely guaranteed in the next Turnbull Green government. Malcolm always wins. The major achievements of Tony Abbott will be demolished. This is personal.

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TdeF

Ok, so it is not yet threaded.

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handjive

Does Burning Fossil Fuels Cause Sea Level Rise?

These people had no coal fired power, or SUVs, but still the sea levels rose …

2000-year-old temple found underwater off Indian coast

“When the shoreline receded during the 2004 tsunami, tourists in Mamallapuram swore they saw a long row of granite boulders emerge from the sea, before it was swallowed again as the water hurtled forward.
More than a decade later, a team of scientists and divers have uncovered what eyewitnesses saw on that fateful day – vestiges of an ancient port.

A 10-member team from the National Institute of Oceanography (NIO) surveyed the area from March 10 to 18, and have found the ruins of one of six ancient temples that are thought to have been swallowed up by the ocean as sea levels rose.”

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ROM

A small country rail siding many a long year ago
One of those slow moving country passenger cum local freight trains of that long past era pulls in.

A matron in a somewhat desperate state exits the passenger carriage and heads at speed for the station’s outdoor toilets. [ I said it was a long time ago and that is how it often was! ]

Followed shortly by a cacophony of female screams and a somewhat disheveled and rather undressed and very distressed matron erupts from the toilets screaming that she had been bitten by a snake in the unmentionable nether regions.

Immediate investigation showed two puncture marks in the indicated regions so the appropiate snake bite remedies of those times was publicly applied forthwith by those present despite the severe embarrassment of the matronly subject of all the attention.

Which left the problem of the immediate disposal of toilet residing snake to be resolved.

A gun was procured, no problem in the country in those days before the current gun laws, and the well armed citizen ventured into the recesses of the women’s toilet with gun at the ready to dispose of the dangerous serpentine source of all the excitement.

A careful peering from a discrete distance down the toilet seat hole with the gun at the ready was of a somewhat very substantial let down with some indiscreet coughing and hacking as the gun laden snake destroyer tried to control his emotions.

The very clucky chook down that hole was most intent on protecting her brood of chickens and was ready to take on all comers after having been unduly disturbed by events beyond a very clucky chook’s ability to foresee when she chose her nesting place to hatch her eggs and bring up her brood of chicks.

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John

Why does that man, ‘David’, who writes on Don Aitkin’s blog, dislike you so much?

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TdeF

As for conspiracy and WOO HOO. after four Prime Ministers in four years, you have to accept that deals are running the parliament and no voted for Malcolm as PM. Loyalties change overnight with self interest. Abbott supported Bronwyn Bishop into the top job and beyond sense and she repaid him with voting him out of a job. Perhaps seven of these people who turned on Abbott have been since removed or left or damaged, replaced by friends of Malcolm.

Gillard promised no carbon tax. Not to everyone, just to Labor voters. She betrayed them and did the deal, with Bob Brown standing next to her as an equal, with only one seat in parliament. Oakshott and Windsor too, betraying their electorates because Windsor hates Abbott and Joyce. So did Slippper. This is more Game of Thrones than Australian parliament.

So it is easy to criticize my reading of this, but what other simple explanation fits the facts? The Ah Ha moment was when Turnbull announced the Very Fast Train. That could only have come from the Greens. All the pieces fell into place.

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philthegeek

He is going to create his own legend

Only in his own mind.

and everyone loves Malcolm.

Well…..considerably less now than a couple of months ago.

The idea that Turnbull the QC is suddenly a buffoon

There is nothing sudden about that! FFS TdeF, have you ever seen the idiot perform in parliament. He’s the classic lawyer who just doesn’t get that parliament is not a courtroom, a bit like Julie Bishop but better dressed an smarter (not that that is much of a complement).

Anyway TdeF, I reckon you are probably reading far too much into things that have far simpler explanations and you really do need to give at least a little weight to observed behavior when considering how people will vote.

I suspect we are going to disagree ever more strongly on this grand plan theory of yours so consider me disengaged on this topic.

Night night.

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Ian_UK

Hi all,

Forgive me if this has been covered already (this is a very long thread:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/australian-mp-sets-river-on-fire-and-then-blames-fracking-a6998221.html

I look forward to the rebuttal.

Ian

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Michel Lasouris

Wow!! Just wow! The News on the ABC ( yes the A.B.C.)tells us that due to increased plant FOOD (CO2) and water in the atmosphere, The greening of our world has been increasing for 30 years. Well,well,well!! Whodathort that?
Just as well, eh, with all those extra mouths to feed?

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TdeF

People think Malcolm is frozen by shock and has done nothing. He is a strategist, planning his political party, not that of Tony Abbott. It will be populated with Liberal/Green people like the current gay head of the NSW Liberals Malcolm was photographed hugging at the Gay Mardi Gras. Surely people can see what is happening, but they still think things will not change, that it is Liberal/Nationals vs Labor/Green. Think again and reinterpret what Malcolm has actually said and done.

As I wrote on Andrew’s site and here. Turnbull has done a deal for a preference swap with the Greens. He is not a Liberal, but not Labour. Labour and the Greens would nearly swap, Greens 20% into the House and 30% Labor without seats. Only 8 Labour seats were won on absolute majorities. The rest needed Green preferences. Liberal preferences would do and you have a Green Senate and a Green parliament with Labor and the Nats irrelevant.

How can you tell? Listen to what our very Green PM is saying. Very Fast Train, trash the banks, get rid of the minority parties and hand them to the Greens and then Gay Marriage by parliament (not Abbott’s plebiscite), an ETS (Malcolm’s eternal dream), a Republic (Malcolm’s other dream), an Aboriginal constitution and best of all, stop the boat turnbacks.

Even Malcolm’s ABC is saying nothing but the word is leaking out. A Green/Liberal parliament, even if half the Liberals swap to voting Labor. Many National seats will fall as well with Green preferences to the Liberals and Liberal preferences to the Greens and how many lifelong Liberals will vote Labor to stop it?

The key is to say nothing, then there will be no riot in the Nationals and Liberal parties. Quietly. Richard Di Natale will be deputy PM. You might notice the Greens are saying nothing against Malcolm. he is doing all their bidding. The danger is an Abbott challenge, so Abbott has to be neutralized or removed. The ABC have to keep trashing him. Morrison and Bishop have to be humiliated. All underway.

After all, who would believe a Liberal PM would announce a Very Fast Train, as if it was affordable, necessary or made sense? Only a Green PM would do this. Andrew Bolt is just not catching on. He is just puzzled that Malcolm has handed the senate to the Greens and Labor. Turnbull is not another Rudd at odds with his own party. He is creating his own party. A Liberal/Green block would win and enshrine Malcolm for a decade. Windmills everywhere, whatever the Greens want, like Gillard and Brown. Everything for Tasmania and South Australia, the NT and Canberra. This will be a new century with no Labor party and the Unions without representation. A lot of people would like that. The cost? See the list above.

The big one, the one Malcolm will enjoy, is to stop the boat turnbacks, his final act against Tony Abbott who took his job.

Now reinterpret what is being said publicly. The deals are behind the scenes with people like Michael Kroger talking to the Greens every day. Swapping preferences. It is all people can do to keep quiet but the word is leaking. We will see a very Left/Green PM after the election. Malcolm will have the numbers easily and the mad Greens will finally be a real party and Di Natale deputy PM. Anyone could sell that deal to the Greens. Once in place, it cannot be changed.

[Moved from the polish wind thread - Jo] Fly

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Is Malcom’s dream everybody’s nightmare, probably is, but if so Australia, once a prosperous country due to the toil of our forebears, going down the path of its ruination due to a socialist agenda?

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aussiepete

Hello TdeF.
I am usually in lockstep with everything you say. Your comments today are a bit “out there” and paint a very scary scenario.Given that my “going in point“, re politicians, is, don’t believe a word they say – EVER! i’ll grant that every point you made above is, unfortunately, entirely possible.

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gigdiary

That’s an extremely astute summation, TdeF. It’s so astute that it could easily be dismissed as a conspiracy theory, almost. Clearly you are much closer to the engine room of politics than the ordinary voter.

It is inconceivable that Malcolm got this far without having a plan. While he has been likened to a ‘dog who chases a car and then doesn’t know what to do when he catches it’, Malcolm has had years to prepare for this moment. It’s just, as you say, not the preparation we were expecting.

Liberal Party strategist Mark Textor said “the loss of disgruntled conservatives will be outweighed by the appeal of a more moderate party to swinging voters. The qualitative evidence is they don’t matter. The sum of a more centrist approach outweighs any alleged marginal loss of so-called base voters.’’

I dismissed this idea as naive, thinking that Textor, and Kroger, had been sucked in by the Turnbull myth. After reading your post, I no longer think that’s the case. Turnbull, Textor, and Kroger have an agenda and it’s not one that conservative Australia should be happy with.

The conservative voter is between a rock and a hard place at the coming election: the Turnbull Libs or Shorten’s Labor. Neither are acceptable, yet one will win. Either way, we get an ETS [snip] and an open border policy (well heading that way, anyway).

As I see it, the only way to create a buffer between the rock and hard place is to vote for conservatives such as ALA in the Senate. There are others, although strength in numbers is advisable. The Lower House is more problematic. Stalwart conservatives such as Craig Kelly need to be returned to government. The 54 Turncoats don’t deserve the conservative vote.

I voted to oust Gough Whitlam in 1975. Ever since then I have voted Liberal. I live in the Corio (Geelong) electorate. The Liberal candidate is a Turnbull supporter. I won’t be this voting Liberal this election.

[Please avoid the subject I snipped. We do not have the resources to moderate it adequately if it gets picked up in additional comments and this is a science blog even though political subjects of importance do get discussed. Thanks.] AZ

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Analitik

And don’t forget that back in 2010 he took part in the launch of Beynd Zero Emission’s Zero Carbon Australia plan along with Bob Carr.

His speech reaffirms his belief in CAGW and even though he states “We are dealing in scientific terms with enormous uncertainty” he goes on to announce “in the long term and really sooner rather than later, we must have a price on carbon” followed by “the coalition as you know, no longer supports a market based mechanism to put a price on carbon and I regret that” and sees Concentrated Solar Power as the leading contender for carbon free baseload power

http://bze.org.au/media/newswire/zero-carbon-australia-sydney-launch-event-video-bob-carr-and-malcolm-turnbull-100912

Perhaps he was there and made those statements merely to cover the green left wing spectrum for the Coalition as part of the election campaign but can we rely on that?

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el gordo

A continental VFT isn’t such a bad thing, it would unlock the land.

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Joe McCarthy

TdeF is obviously one of a few people that can see the “big picture”.
His post is far from a conspiracy theory. For those who understand the heading that the ship of state is about to adopt, it is like a crystal ball.
Talcum is no dummy, and has had this goal since he was a young man. He is in tune with very powerful people who are adamant that the entire world be conquered.
Such a thrust has been tried many times before; but using military might.
This time someone determined a different approach to domination.
You hit the nail on the head, Robert. Turnbull’s dream is the same as Gillard’s dream, and it will be everyone’s nightmare.

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Dennis

Andrew Bolt – Daily Telegraph

Malcolm Turnbull’s allies are privately assuring Leftist media critics that Turnbull, once elected, will be as Left as they like. He’s just got to fool the voters and his party until then.

Is there any other way to read Fairfax Leftist Tony Walker’s column?:

Turnbull leads a divided party in which a conservative rump sits there like a rotting carcass.In yielding ground to the hard right in his ranks, Turnbull risks being seen to be fighting this election campaign on Tony Abbott’s legacy, rather than one based on his own centrist [sic] convictions.

Who, we might ask, is the real Malcolm Turnbull? What does he really stand for? Is he really a liberal with a small “l” …?

Turnbull confidants will tell you that once re-elected in his own right, an agile and innovative prime minister will face down his internal party critics and redefine his leadership in a single bound.

if true, that doesn’t seem to give conservatives much reason to fight for this government. It would of course help if Turnbull at least built relationships with them to engender trust, but that is yet to come.

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Ross

TdeF

What would happen if Abbott left NOW and quickly formed another party which was truly centre-right ? or is it too late for it to happen for this election ?

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Annie

So effectively we are disenfranchised?

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ianl8888

Accurate eough, but very self-evident.

Waffle has been appointing senior leftoid public servants for months now. Obviously, one cannot “unelect” these people, as they are not elected in the first place. The EU works like that, too.

But even Cassandra doubts the broader electorate will peacefully tolerate the return of the boats with the accompanying drownings and other bits and pieces.

And yes, the ABC is particularly quiet on these topics, so a Malcolm/Green party is definitely being attempted.

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philthegeek

As I wrote on Andrew’s site and here. Turnbull has done a deal for a preference swap with the Greens. He is not a Liberal,

Tdef, you do realize that, historically, Greens allocation of preferences actually doesn’t mean much? With the Senate Voting rule changes, now, even less.

If they preference the Libs, or, as they usually do, issue open HTV’s in electorates where they aren’t preferencing the ALP / Leftist parties……the ALP still gets 75% -80% preference flow from them?? The Greens just don’t have the influence that some people would like to think over the behavior of their voter base. That’s why public preference “deals” with the Greens are avoided. You take all the pain of having done the deal, but get little or no political return for it.

Anyhow, we will know fer sure if your theory is valid as soon as HTV’s get issued before the election. Its verifiable.

But frankly, i reckon its a bit out there with the fairies. Just accept…Tony is gone…and Malcolm in a Muddle was a big mistake.

I think that the conservative commentariat like Bolt may just need to accept that the RW of Australian politics have actually behaved like a self indulgent mob of prats with far too great a sense of entitlement over since 2013 and that is now coming home to roost. They thought they won that election (lol!), rather than the ALP definitively losing it, and took all the wrong lessons away from the RGR years. They may scrape in this year, but there is now a reasonable probability of a Shorten ALP govt after July 2nd. The Libs have forgotten the most tried and true maxim of politics and are going to suffer fromit. Disunity is Death.

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Analitik

Sorry, this post was a follow on to TdeF’s comment #10 on Malcolm Turnbull but somehow ended up down here

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Andrew McRae

Could you clarify that you are actually hoping Turnbull was lying about his policy plans in 2010?
Is that where we are now in Australian politics, we not only expect politicians to lie to the public but we actually demand that they do when it’s to benefit our side?

~

Interesting how much the future has changed since 2011. Back then all the predictions were for Peak Oil between 2010 and 2015 and a terminal decline in production to crash the global economy by 2019. The Beyond Zero Emissions CEO said (my emphasis) “we know that by 2015 we’re going to have 80 percent of our oil is going to be imported and at 200 dollars a barrel”.
It’s now 2016 and oil price this morning is… AU\$43/barrel.
Most people following the issue thought the oil price in 2009 was geologically constrained because the production appeared to have peaked in 2008, but it must have been political and technological, which is why the price later dropped.

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Analitik

My replies keep ending up as separate posts – I must read like a total tool (or more so than usual)

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aussiepete

El Gordo,
I can’t for the life of me see how a VFT hurtling past Quirindi at 340kph will unlock anything for them, anything more than a plane does at present, flying over at 30,000 feet. I am open to you or anyone else helping me on this.

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el gordo

aussiepete

This inland freight rail corridor could be widened for VFT.

https://infrastructure.gov.au/rail/inland/

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TdeF

Victoria started a new Very Fast Train service to Ballarat in December 2007. What a joke! Most of this year you have had to take a bus. The timetabled time to cover the 116km to Ballarrat. Last week 1 hour 52 minutes. That’s the speed of a galloping horse, half that of the freeway. As well the new train line is only a single line which is not only very dangerous, it must make timetabling a nightmare.

Wouldn’t it be nice to have trains just as fast as cars? Who would drive? An easily achievable train 150km/hr would see a revolution in the country, but what do the Greens want, an absurd 350km/hr! Why? The cost and danger of this incredible speed is as horrendous as it is unnecessary. What’s wrong with just fast, reliable, frequent and cheap trains? Trains at 350km/hr are mad, useless, hundreds of billions in cost just to build and they are impossible to stop.

At a car possible 150km/hr Melbourne central to Sydney central in under 6 hours would be enough, especially with the security and waiting at airports miles out of town and the need to get to the airports and back? Currently it is 1+1.5+1.2+1 or 4.7 hours by air! It would be great to get to Mildura in under 3 hours for a weekend. Central Adelaide in 5 hours not 10. Why not electrify the entire route too, as with the entire Trans Siberian. Efficient coal fired trains. Still the Greens are not listening. They are just afraid of flying.

• #
scaper...

True.

• #
AndyG55

• #
Rod Stuart

One need look no further than Zbig­niew Brzezinski and the Trilateral Commission, Joe.
It is Brzezinski that is responsible for grooming the incumbent president for office, as well as Billary.
Turnbull is well aware of the power and wealth afforded those who assist the Council on Foreign Relations, the Bilderbergs, and the Fabian Society on this quest.
While we may well cheer on the Donald, it is all for nought. As Stalin said, it is not the voters that count, but those who count the votes.

• #
TdeF

Ross, Malcolm does not have to leave his Liberals. Where will the average Liberal voter go? Labor? This is an attack on the Nationals and Labor. Malcolm is on record as seeing the Nationals as useless. Liberals and Nationals already compete for seats and the Greens can make the difference with younger Generation X farmers. Nationals seats will fall to Malcolm’s Green Liberal party.

The Liberals on their own currently dominate parliament. If they join with the 13-24% Greens, we have a new huge block as Generation X take over, voting Green. Melbourne Ports has been Labor forever even with the Liberal vote higher. However with a 24% Green preference vote moving from Labor to the Liberals, it will be a Liberal seat.

The Unions with only 12% of people in Unions are consigned to history of what was a hard working manufacturing country. The docks and factories are now empty. The public service ABC/BOM/CSIRO are all Green voters. So the Carbon nonsense continues. A political aspirant like Rhodes Scholar Malcolm could see this strategy from the moon.

Good luck with the ALA and other parties. We have just seen Malcolm combine with Di Natale to wipe out the minority parties in the Senate, the people who did not like any of the above. If the Liberals wanted control of the Senate in a double dissolution, this was a wrong move. Without these small independents we would still have a Carbon tax and a Mining tax. So your choices are now ONLY Nationals, Greens, Labor or Liberals. Why? You must vote for one of these or your vote will not count.

If the Liberals join with the Greens, something abhorrent and unthinkable to most Liberal voters, it is game over. For strategists like Malcolm, it is all so obvious. He might even be first President of his Australian Republic.

One thing is certain. Malcolm never gives up. He plans and plots and gets his numbers and then removes his former allies like Bronwyn Bishop, replacing them at preselection. They put him in power but they are unreliable, so they have to go. Others like Morrison and Julie Bishop will be humiliated. Poor Morrison. He thinks the budget matters but he is thinking like an old Liberal. He will be dumped by Turnbull. The debt of others has never worried a banker. It is their livelihood.

No, it is worrying. An ETS is an excuse for others to tax the air you breathe. This is all about Malcolm and money. As Lord Monckton warned, this is our last year of freedom.

• #
Rereke Whakaaro

Interesting scenario!

If people do not like any of the options on offer, they will tend to go towards any option that is different to the others. What you suggest, might actually work.

• #
philthegeek

What would happen if Abbott left NOW and quickly formed another party which was truly centre-right ? or is it too late for it to happen for this election ?

Easy question that. He would get good data at the election as to just how happy the bulk of the electorate is that he got knifed.

But Marge would probably be please at him having something to keep him out and about and not in the house for a while.

• #
Andrew McRae

Yep the comments are completely screwed up today. I definitely clicked Reply on Analitik’s comment.

• #
Analitik

Yes, sadly I’m hoping that that the Prime Minister is a bald, faced, self interested, shameless liar for supporting the Beyond Zero Emissions policy launch back in 2010.

Of course, if he can lie to the left wing greentards what’s to stop him issuing similar lies to his cabinet, backbench, party, constituency, compatriots?

• #
Mike

Peak US Oil Rigs was around 4000 in 1980 and is around 400 now.

• #
Rod Stuart

Fifty years ago Canada had a turbo train from Toronto to Montreal.
Montreal hosted the World’s Fair in 1967. It had a speedometer in the bar car that registered 160 mph a good part of the way.
I rode it and it was faster from downtown Toronto to downtown Montreal than flying.
It used the freight tracks existing at the time.
It’s downfall was too many collisions. At level crossings, even though the lights were red, people would look both ways, see nothing coming, attempt to cross, and WHAM. At 160 mph it got to the crossing in a big hurry. With out subway crossings at roads the same affliction would be the case with any VFT.

• #
Chris in Hervey Bay

I often get the Amtrak HST from NYC to Washington, DC. Takes about 3 hours. But it stops at Newark, Metropark, Trenton, Philadelphia, Wilmington, Baltimore.
It is about a 225 mile trip, and at times the train gets up to 250 kph.
The North East corridor is getting an upgrade which will cut times from DC to NYC to 90 minutes.

• #
James Murphy

When I worked in Bass Strait, on and off between 2004, and 2010, I caught the train from Melbourne to Sale ( I could have hired a car, but never did – and anyway, driving was not really any faster than the train, given Melbourne traffic). The much vaunted upgrades took years to complete, but any claims to making trips faster were ultimately insignificant because the distance between stations was just not great enough, and because the signalling/switching system wasn’t designed to cope with trains going above a certain speed anyway. I think some places such as Traralgon may have better/faster services as a result, but that doesn’t help people who want to travel just a little bit further out.

In the Blue Mountains, I know it now takes them same amount of time, or even more time to travel from Sydney to, say, Blackheath, then it did when the trains were steam powered, and had to stop for water. I also understand that a lot of train services in Sydney itself are out on weekends due to ‘track work’, which must cause interminable problems.

In Paris, the metropolitan train services often have work done, but a lot is done at night so as to avoid interfering with commuters, they usually sacrifice the last couple of trains for the evening (around 11pm), and offers a replacement bus service for those, and then start the first service of the day a little bit later. Sure, they have bus replacements for some lines on weekends, but it’s the exception, not the rule. Pretty much all work on the Metro is done at night, or they close lines at certain stations for a short time, but they seem to plan it around school holidays, and summer, etc, so as to try to minimise inconvenience. Besides which, metro stations are not exactly a long distance apart, and buses are plentiful.

• #
Another Ian

TdsF

Did it have a wry name?

Like in western Queensland there was “The Flying Flea”

And in Canada “The Newfie Bullet”?

• #
Sceptical Sam

This is a response to TdeF at #38

You say:

The Liberals on their own currently dominate parliament.

Not without their current coalition partners – the Nationals – they don’t.

And, it is their coalition partners – the Nationals – that have saved the day on Malcolm’s lust for an ETS or Carbon dioxide tax, as a result of the coalition agreement that the Nationals insisted on the Liberals signing before agreeing to go into government with them.

Think on that.

The Nationals are the only party holding the return of the ETS at bay. Malcolm wants it. Labor wants it. The Greens are crying for it.

The very best thing that every conservative and other person concerned about the return of the ETS, can do is to vote for the Nationals in the Senate. Give them such an increase in Senators that they hold the balance of power. The Nationals are the only party capable of stopping this monster. The only party.

• #
Lord Jim

@TdeF.
Turnbull almost split the party last time.
If he allies with the Greens in government he will split it.
Perhaps the Liberal strategists do not believe that could happen.
They probably also did not believe it within comprehension that Shorten could beat Turnbull in an opinion poll.

Moreover, I do not see a Greens-Liberal alliance doing any better than the ALP-Greens alliance made by Gillard.
If anything it will do worse because there are too many irreconcilable philosophical inconsistencies between the parties.
The Liberals cannot morph into the ALP just as the Greens cannot morph into the Liberals.
Indeed, if the Greens do strike a preference deal with the Liberals it could be at considerable cost to their own electoral standing (i.e. Greens is where a protest vote for disenchanted ALP voters goes, if that vote is now for the Liberals, I think it will be reduced); just as a Liberal alliance with the greens will hurt their standing.

Also, if anyone opens the door to 50,000 migrants or loses the AAA credit rating they will be electoral history.

Finally, after his performance as opposition leader, I do not see Turnbull lasting more than one term.
Look how fast his polls have already fallen.

• #
Another Ian

Rod

#18 was supposed to be a reply to this

???

• #
Another Ian

Rod

Well, #43 was to your #41

We’ll see where this ends up

Testing, Testing.

??????

• #
Rod Stuart

Ian
Damned if I know.

• #
TdeF

Coalition 90 (Liberal party 58, Nationals 10, Liberal National Party 22)
Without the Nationals, the government would still have 80 seats. The coalition is about the senate.

Most of the 80 Liberals are in with absolute majorities.

Compare with the other coalition ALP 55 and Greens 1.
By my count all but 8 ALP seats were won on first preferences. The rest were won on Green preferences only .

Without Green preferences, there would be only 8 Labor. Now imagine if the Greens went with Malcolm’s Liberal/Green party and swapped first preferences.

The numbers would be 80 Liberals +48 Greens and only 8 Labor would be left standing (sitting).

As for the Nationals, they are under threat from the Greens too and progressive young privately schooled Nationals like the Greens and a carbon tax. Consider if the Liberals contested more country seats as in WA and swapped first preferences with the Greens. The Nationals could be wiped out to a few seats.

The unthinkable is being planned today. The old teams will be gone forever, the old war between Union controlled Labor party and the Liberals and Nationals from the rich end of town. Progressives will rule and they want their carbon tax. What would scientists know? Tax solves all problems.

Now the Senate
Coalition 33. 29 Liberal and 4 Nationals.
Alp 26, Greens 9, Sundry 8

4 of the small parties will be removed by a combined Liberal Green bill, opposed by the independents and Labor. It was the first sign of their combined strength. Now add the preference swaps. 42 would be in a Green/Liberal coalition as today, perhaps even 44 with the removal of the little parties.

Malcolm’s Green Liberals would control both houses easily. The ALP and Nationals are both on the verge of extinction except in the senate. So like Gillard, Malcolm will bring in his ETS as his first move. Remember he went to the election as Environment Minister under John Howard with his ETS. He will get his way.

If this was not the case, the very threat of a double dissolution would have be used to keep the luckly independents in check in their six year cushy jobs. The actual use of the threat means Malcolm does not need them and will hand their seats to the Greens and Labor. Ask yourself why? Why keep these people when you are allied with the Greens and giving them everything they want? Hello more windmills.

• #
el gordo

Sam at 69

Yes vote Nats in the Senate, send politicians a clear signal. Out in the bush we have the luxury of Rep members and I won’t squander the opportunity.

• #
TdeF

This was a direct response to Skeptical Sam who thought Liberals with 80 seats did not dominate the 150 seat House of Representatives.

• #
Lord Jim

@Tdef
“Coalition 90 (Liberal party 58, Nationals 10, Liberal National Party 22)
Without the Nationals, the government would still have 80 seats. The coalition is about the senate.”

Not all LNP are Liberals, there is an informal agreement about which party room they will sit in.
And while it is true the ALP currently has only 55 seats, that was on the back of the hammering that Abbott gave them at the last election.
Plus how many ALP voters vote Green knowing that their vote will find its way back to the ALP.
Would they be happy to vote Green knowing their votes go to a ex merchant banker? I doubt it.
If the Liberals go into coalition with the Greens I guarantee there will be a massive hemorrhaging of their voter base (more than we have seen since Turnbull became PM).
Remember that the Greens are a minority party for a reason.
It is probably true, however, that Turnbull’s hope of winning this election depends on wooing the Green vote.
But this can only be a short term strategy (as Gillard found out).
And if the Liberals did try to wipe out the Nats, then there would be massive repercussions for them, especially in QLD, and not just at a Federal level.

• #
AndyG55

I wonder if Shorten is aware of Turnbull’s mendacity… not a chance. !!

• #
Chris in Hervey Bay

That was a reply to Tdef at #40 !!

• #
TdeF

“I do not see a Greens-Liberal alliance doing any better than the ALP-Greens alliance made by Gillard”

It’s all in the numbers. Gillard would not have been PM without Oakshott and Windsor and then Slipper. It was a minority governement.

A swap of first preferences with the Liberals would mean a flip of ALP and Green numbers in parliament.

In the Senate, such an alliance would also dominate. Would the ordinary Liberals agree? Consider that many hate the Unions. The Unions would be wiped out. It would be a majority government and Malcolm would see himself as a visionary. Yes, it would split the party, but when? Malcolm and friends like the ABC are doing their best to keep this quiet, but word is leaking out, as noticed by Andrew Bolt. When elected, Malcolm will make Gillard seem nice, but he will not be the slave of the Unions. The Labor party representing the now small union movement, will be wiped out. The Nationals too as so few people now live on farms. The great city dwelling Australia will be nice to everyone and they will be taxed to pay for Green fantasies. I hope you enjoy paying for a VFT system. A mere \$100-\$200billion to do on a train what you can currently do on a plane, get between capital cities without stopping.

• #
Graeme No.3

TdeF:

There is an article in the Sunday Mail about the coming election and how Xenophon might go in SA. Thought that he might get 4 of the Senate seats and 3 ‘safe’ seats (2 Lib. 1 Labour). Living in one of the ‘safe’ liberal seats I am convinced that “it is in play”. The overall effect might be a Senate quite as intractable as the current one.

Given his record of mistakes – The best laid plans of mice and men oft gang Turnbull?

• #
Dennis

Oakeshott was recruited by PM Rudd after he won the 2008 Lyne Electorate by election, Tony Windsor was also recruited noting that his cousin Bruce Hawker was/is a Union Labor Spin Doctor. Both were flirting with NSW State Union Labor for many years and may well be mentioned when former NSW independent MP Richard Torbay is a witness at the NSW ICAC regarding backdoor funding of independents.

• #
bobl

No it wouldn’t, it would depend on whether the greens or Lib Polled better in the seat. In most seats that would be the lib – not the green as it is today with the Labor candidates beating the greens. The greens would probably have LESS representation than they do now.

• #
James Murphy

#45 was supposed to be a reply to another topic, I think I pushed the wrong button…or something…

• #
Another Ian

That spoonerism expanded

“Pull a rabbit out of a hat”

Or is that

“a habit out – - “?

• #
Another Ian

Graeme No 3

Here we go again

James Murphy

Welcome to the posting chance game – this should be #58.1

• #
TdeF

Gigdiary,
Liberal Party strategist Mark Textor said “the loss of disgruntled conservatives will be outweighed by the appeal of a more moderate party to swinging voters.

It seemed a betrayal but a silly and dangerous point of view. What was lacking was the full explanation. Consider

The ABC are not attacking Malcolm
There is no obvious hurry to balance the budget
Malcolm’s announcements sound like they are coming from the Greens
He still thinks they will win easily.

Stangely Labor is not attacking either. Remember when Abbott was thought to be gone the first time? The Prince of Point Piper attack from Bill Shorten? Since then, nothing. Labor think Malcolm is working with them, when in fact he is working with the Greens. They are leaving their attack too late. The Greens will betray them, just as Malcolm betrayed his own boss and many Liberal voters.

This is about negotiation, settling. Malcolm as befits a merchant banker and QC lawyer can see a settlement. Settle with the Greens, compromise on everything and stitch up Labor. So what if a few Liberal voters go missing? Malcolm and the Greens will be sunning themselves, cooled by windmills and kept warm by solar panels and his old company, Goldman Sachs will handle the Carbon credits for a healthy commission.

• #
TdeF

Conspiracy? Abbott’s removal was a conspiracy, a plot concocted at a private home and involving government ministers clearly including Bishop and Malcolm himself. Only half of Australia voted for the coalition and slightly more than half of the coalition MPs removed Abbott. Five votes the other way would have seen it fail. Since then some seven of the conspirators have been removed and replaced by Malcolm’s men. Morrison is being trashed and Bishop may never stand again. The voters were never asked.

However this growing idea that Malcolm is going to take the party away from the voters is another clandestine plot of the Turnbull type. Again voters are treated as irrelevant. This is a deal between politicians and it will work. It is why Malcolm wants a double dissolution election as soon as possible. He will clear out Labor and the Nationals, who would not work together anyway. No opposition. Another coup.

If coups and clandestine plans are conspiracies then it is another conspiracy by Malcolm and friends. Australians will be asked to vote, not asked about preferences. They are being set today by politicians. We are not being told or asked. It will be painted as a more moderate Liberal party, more caring about the environment and children and education and minimizing the nasty things like defence and international politics. We can all sit around singing Kumbyah and thank Malcolm the visionary and his new Unification party. “Continuity and change”. A comedy line stolen from the VEEP meant to be a meaningless phrase. Malcolms’ motto.

• #
Dennis

And the worldwide web of socialists pushing their new world order, one world government, end to capitalism as we know it to be replaced by a managed and controlled capitalism like Communist China has.

• #
TdeF

Just watched the latest James Bond. The new Ernst Stavro Blofeld was a shock. Look for the smiling villain who looks just like our PM. Scary.

For those people who think Malcolm is the most ineffectual, do nothing Prime Minister in history, he has plotted his moves since before he entered parliament and works behind the scenes. It may even be why he entered politics from very successful careers as a QC and then rich merchant banker at the top of his field. He has just not said anything. He is now PM, head of the largest political party in the country and he will do with it as he pleases. Now that does sound like an Ian Fleming plot.

• #
ianl8888

Nor will we ever be.

Try to understand Cassandra.

• #
TdeF

No, AnotherIan. I can think of a few. The flying slug. The Ballarat Bullet. The VST. Considering it has not even been on the rails for many weeks, the Phantom.

• #
ROM

When I was a young guy way back in the late 1950′s and driving through SE Queensland with a couple of mates, the locals claimed that the Queensland Railway’s theme song was “I’ll walk beside you.”

• #
Dennis

Economic Systems: The alarmists keep telling us their concern about global warming is all about man’s stewardship of the environment. But we know that’s not true. A United Nations official has now confirmed this.

At a news conference last week (October 2015) in Brussels, Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of U.N.’s Framework Convention on Climate Change, admitted that the goal of environmental activists is not to save the world from ecological calamity but to destroy capitalism.

“This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution,” she said.

Referring to a new international treaty environmentalists hope will be adopted at the Paris climate change conference later this year, she added: “This is probably the most difficult task we have ever given ourselves, which is to intentionally transform the economic development model for the first time in human history.”

The only economic model in the last 150 years that has ever worked at all is capitalism. The evidence is prima facie: From a feudal order that lasted a thousand years, produced zero growth and kept workdays long and lifespans short, the countries that have embraced free-market capitalism have enjoyed a system in which output has increased 70-fold, work days have been halved and lifespans doubled.

Figueres is perhaps the perfect person for the job of transforming “the economic development model” because she’s really never seen it work. “If you look at Ms. Figueres’ Wikipedia page,” notes Cato economist Dan Mitchell: Making the world look at their right hand while they choke developed economies with their left.

• #
scaper...

Hi Andy. Was confirming Turnbull’s intentions (Bolt link) if he wins the election.

• #
AndyG55

Scaper….

Surely the rest of the Liberals know this.

Can’t they do anything about it.. or have they sunk so far that they don’t want to.?

• #
Rod Stuart

Surely the rest of the Liberals know this.

Don’t kid yourself.
I was at an Anzac do this morning and I was talking to one of the local Liberal executive.
Absolutely no idea of any of this.
Totally focused on all the negatives about an ALP win on 2 July.
Admits that Talcum Allbull was a mistake, but not as disgusting as Shorten.
This is all bound to end in tears.

• #
ianl8888

Ah yes, the useful idiots.

• #
philthegeek

Rod @ 113

I was at an Anzac do this morning and I was talking to one of the local Liberal executive.
Absolutely no idea of any of this.
Totally focused on all the negatives about an ALP win on 2 July.
Admits that Talcum Allbull was a mistake, but not as disgusting as Shorten.
This is all bound to end in tears.

You aren’t the only one hearing that kind of thing from somewhat connected people.

They Libs have to stop talking about Labor, and try to balance the negative warning stuff with positive where we are headed stuff, its as simple as that.

But really the senior Libs just dont get it.

Budget on the 3rd is make or break as is Shortens budget in reply. Its their one chance and if they blow it, from now till July 2nd will just be one long suicide note from the Libs. They have a chance, but remains to be seen if they will take it, AND they really NEED Shorten to screw up the BIR speech. That should not be taken as a given since the ALP machine is running very smoothly at the moment.

• #
Another Ian

ROM

Maybe that exaggerates!

There is a story of a steam era train pulling up in a siding where a line branched west.

Passenger to conductor “Can I get out and pick some flowers”

Conductor “There’s no flowers here”

Passenger “No but I’ve got some seeds”

• #
TdeF

Phil,
You are right. For this to work, they need to stall the HTV (How To Vote) cards until the last minute. Also some Greens would preference the Liberals if it gave them seats or power. In newly yuppie middle class Melbourne Ports there are a lot of Liberals and a lot of Greens, 24%. Green preferences take Labor over the top. Now imagine if even half the Green preferences go to the Liberals, an industrial inner city working man’s seat which has always been Labor will change. The price is the same one Gillard paid.

Consider too marginal inner city seats where Labor struggles to just hold off the Greens. Liberal preferences would make all the difference. Even in country seats where Liberals and Nationals compete in WA, Green/Liberal first preference swaps could make the difference. The Greens could get a dozen seats or double that. For that prize, Green voters will do as they are told.

The already announced view of Malcolm’s numbers men is that losing a few Liberal votes is going to be more than justified. They were not joking. This is not news. I just did not believe it. Our PM is going to steal the Green vote.

Clearly one coup was just the prelude to another. At least the ABC warned everyone about the last. This time they are being asked to keep quiet.

• #
ROM

Another Ian @ # 114

Sigh!
You will have to go to # 49 for another of my “Tales of Rail from long ago”

• #
philthegeek

Now imagine if even half the Green preferences go to the Liberals,

That’s the point i was making Tdef. Not going to happen.

Its been shown over any number of elections, the actual real world test of this sort of thing, that “deals” don’t matter with vast majority of Greens primary voters. They will preference ALP / Left parties above the Libs.

For this to work, they need to stall the HTV (How To Vote) cards until the last minute.

Lol! Given the known tendancies of behavior of that demographic, spring that on Greens primary voters and you will increase the preference flow to the ALP. simply wont matter.

Consider too marginal inner city seats where Labor struggles to just hold off the Greens. Liberal preferences would make all the difference.

Yup, this can make a difference in terms of the Greens winning a seat. But in ANY seat, IF the Greens can come second on primary the Greens will probably win it. We know that because it already happens. Lib voters are usually quite ok with the Greens being preferenced higher than the REAL enemy, as are ALP voters. It will only matter in 1 or 2 seats anyway.

For that prize, Green voters will do as they are told.

No they wont. Or not enough to matter anyway.

Look, its about that time of the electoral cycle where everyone comes out of the woodwork with their theories about how WOO HOO!!! THIS time is so different and unique. Some ways that is always true, but I think you are getting carried away.

What we are looking at in 2016 is a big test of the maxim that “oppositions dont win, Govts lose” elections.

To me, the Libs seem intent of proving that.

• #
TdeF

“Currently we have a Liberal Party that is going in the same philosophical direction as Labor, just at a slower pace”

No, we have Labor going in a Green direction because they need the numbers. “There will not be a carbon tax in a government I lead”

Now we also have a Liberal party going in a Green direction. It only looks like a Labor direction because Labor are currently aligned with the Greens. Labor is about Unions and CO2 taxes kill jobs. Labor would never have been Green.

Besides, there have been good Labor leaders and policies. What we may now have is a new pragmatic Green leader in di Natale who is working with Kroeger to stitch up old tired Labor. Of course he would have demands and Turnbull has announced these and then retreated. Think back over Turnbull’s crazy announcements. Each a Green policy, the VFT outrageously so. Death taxes are next, to go with negative gearing, a big tax on the banks and the removal of R&D incentives, which the Greens consider a cost, not a tax on R&D. Even the CSL is fighting this one. Why? Simply because Malcolm is considering it as Green policy. Like all Green policies, it is nuts.

Now what if I am wrong? This is science logic applied to human affairs, political science.

There have been many strange Rudd like announcements by Malcolm causing a lot of puzzlement by commentators. Use Occam’s razor. The two absolute proofs of a Liberal Green alliance are the VFT, a signature loony Green policy and the unnecessary removal of the minority parties without whom we would still have a Carbon tax and Mining tax. Here the Greens aligned with Malcolm against Labor. Why help Labor and the Greens? It would have been far better to threaten to do this, but he wanted an excuse to remove them and change the senate. He wants more Greens and fewer Labor. In a Liberal Green coalition, Malcolm will have a majority in both houses, decimating Labor. He wants the 10 Green seats in the Senate.

Unlike Global Warming, there is a total correlation between statements from Malcolm and Green policy. The press is saying nothing and an ETS is not even being discussed. So it is certain. A triumph of politics over science. A tax on Australians breathing and living even though 98% of the CO2 is from overseas. How will this alter the Global Temperature? It won’t.

• #
TdeF

Ok, so what about a Green/Liberal coalition. Ownership of both houses.

There is no point going through the seats one by one, as Kroeger and others are doing right now. These generalities and axioms will not matter, but many seats will change hands and many marginal Liberals will rest easy. Your only real argument is that Green voters will not follow a how to vote card, even if it gives them lots of seats and recognition as the second party of Australia. Think again. This has never been at stake before.

The idea that Turnbull the QC is suddenly a buffoon intent on losing his job will not wash. Or his wife. He has already concluded one coup successfully. This is the natural second step, a step Abbott would never make but it fits with Green/ABC/Turnbull. He is going to create his own legend and everyone loves Malcolm. Those Liberals who want to see the end of Union power will see some value in it. Besides, without it we have another three years of a do nothing Senate while Gillard’s laws stay in place.

• #
TdeF

Phil, my second response is at #53.

• #
Mike

Strewth!!

“Upon hearing the rather surprising news that prominent republican billionaire Charles Koch could possibly support Hillary Clinton in a presidential election, Clinton took to twitter to offer her response.

Not interested in endorsements from people who deny climate science and try to make it harder for people to vote. https://t.co/TWN4zYhMBh

— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) April 24, 2016″

• #
gigdiary

TdeF, that is powerful stuff. It is chilling information for Liberal voters. It’s a great wake-up call.

Thanks for taking the time to expound your thoughts.

I posted this comment on Nick Cater’s Oz article last night:

At the next election, I’m putting my Senate eggs in the ALA basket. If enough voters do that, we may have a buffer against the Turnbull Labor/Green look-a-likes and union controlled Shorten Labor.

Do you think there is any veracity to that suggestion?

I feel it is my only option.