JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


Handbooks

The Skeptics Handbook

Think it has been debunked? See here.

The Skeptics Handbook II

Climate Money Paper


Advertising

micropace


GoldNerds

The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX



Archives

Met Bureau Bingo: warm autumn nights sold as “Hottest Ever” March extreme

It’s another month of BOM Bingo. The ABC and BOM are trumpeting a “hottest” ever headline yet again, and Warwick Hughes is onto them already.

Conveniently the ABC forgets to mention that March Maximum Temps have been hotter before many times and with a pattern that has nothing to do with CO2. How many in the ABC audience would know that?

March temperatures sets record as hottest ever, Bureau of Meteorology says

“You could be forgiven for not noticing the end of summer — March was a hot one.” says Sara Phillips. But actually, if you are human, you could be forgiven for thinking this was just another hot March like so many before. For SE Australia where most humans live, the hottest March, and wildly so, was in 1940. Across the whole of Australia these kinds of maximum temperatures in March have been occurring for decades and 1986 was much much hotter. See the BOM graph below.

Hands up who can spot the horrid effect of CO2 in this graph?

March Maximum Temperature for Australia

Stick with the logic. Must be CO2 that caused the cold spike in 2011 (and 1967, 1942 and 1913). This is witchcraft.

You could be forgiven for thinking the aim of the ABC is not to inform Australians about the weather that matters, but to score headlines involving the word “hottest”. When the coldest maximum March temperatures were set in March 2011, where was the ABC?

Do humans even notice “mean” temperatures?

Too tricky for words, the weather bureau was talking about hottest ever mean and minimum temperatures. Mean temperatures are almost never mentioned (not on the six o’clock news and weather) because we want to know the coldest and hottest temperatures each day, not the average of them. Nor are we too concerned with minimums in a middling month. It’s not about frosts or heat stroke.

In March the minimums really did hit a record. Effectively the Bureau of Meteorology (with a little help from the ABC) are marketing warm autumn nights as a form of extreme weather.

Minimum temperatures, Australia, March 2016

The mysterious hot spot that is Walungurru (Kintore) Airport

Map Walungurru, Giles, Meteorolocical stations, BOM

Location of Giles and Walungurru stations.

Warwick Hughes has spotted an oddity when comparing Giles to Walungurru which are 220km apart. Note the normal “pale yellow” minimums recorded at Giles near the border of WA-SA-NT. Giles is a specialist meteorology station and has been there since 1956. It is the only staffed weather station within an area of about 2,500,000 square kilometres (970,000 sq mi).

Contrast that with the big red blob on the border of WA and the NT at Walungurru “Airport”, which has only been recording since 2002 — admire the sparse graph of total monthly data there which shows how small this dataset is. Warwick Hughes notes that for most of its life that spot has recorded strange nightly hot temperatures which don’t match the thousands of square kilometers all around — see his post on the persistent night time error anomaly map. This is a vast desert plain. It shouldn’t have a climate all of its own here showing 3C warmer at night for entire whole years than the thermometers “nearby”.

How much of Australia’s “average” temperature depends on this one likely flawed station?

We got more rain than normal across inland Australia.

Does the extra rain matter? Hard to know — it may be clouds or humidity that matters more. The BOM March statements drown us in weather data, but did not mention “clouds” or “humidity”. Was it just a cloudy or humid month which kept night time temperatures up in places hardly anyone lives? It was an odd month (see the graph below where rain fell in different places to normal). Across inland Australia the soil moisture levels must be up (not too scary? Compare this week in March 2016  to March 2015).

Did CO2 cause that extra rain in SW WA, or the lack of it in NW WA? Or was that the El Nino, or the IOD?

Perhaps it was your air-conditioner? ;-)

 

rainfall, Australia, March, 2016, deciles, anomaly.

Maximums seem to be more sensitive to extra rain,

It was even more rainy in inland central Australia back in 2011 when we got the coldest ever March Maximum temp.

Higher temperatures in Australia are more likely to be due to lower rainfall than to CO2. See this past post by Bill Johnston about hot days in Australia and their connection to lower rainfall, and electronic thermometers — not CO2.

Johnston found that for every 100mm of rainfall, the maximum temperatures were about a third of a degree cooler. But on minima rainfall has a very slight warming effect — too small to be called significant. To some extent rainfall would correlate with clouds or humidity which may be what we really need to understand why minima were at a record high.

———————

Minor editing: I took out the line about minimums being “hottest in the areas in Australia where almost no one lives, and where there are almost no thermometers”. It’s true over most of the area (Graph 2, orange bits), but things were still warmer than usual in Victoria at night. The mean minimums there were a balmy 12-15C (54 – 59F) which might be 1 – 2 degrees C more than usual, but seriously, who cares? Actually, that rather makes my point — the BOM and ABC are turning slightly warmer autumn nights into “extreme weather”.

The graph of SE Australia March Max temp copied here.

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 8.2/10 (63 votes cast)
Met Bureau Bingo: warm autumn nights sold as "Hottest Ever" March extreme, 8.2 out of 10 based on 63 ratings

Tiny Url for this post: http://tinyurl.com/gm9yfjb

124 comments to Met Bureau Bingo: warm autumn nights sold as “Hottest Ever” March extreme

  • #
    Mike

    Not sure weather it is climate, or weather it is not climate at all.

    158

    • #
      FrankH

      That’s a terrible spell of whether. ;-)

      143

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Yes, but my mate’s wethers in Bruce Rock loved the wet weather, whether it was a record or not. He got 4 inches – 400 points – 100 mm over a couple of weeks.

        He had to go back a long way to find an equivalent measurement.

        I drove up there over Easter. There was water over the road. The last time I saw that was back in the sixties.

        104

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        Whether the weather is cold,
        Or whether the weather is hot,
        Wethers weather the weather,
        Whatever the weather,
        Whether they like it or not.

        40

        • #
          Mike

          To ‘weather’ the climate, or to ‘climate’ the weather, that is the question that is being asked these days billions of times per second like stock market high frequency trading.

          If ordinary Greens can’t even save forests, and if they try get sent to jail (Bob Brown recently), then what hope have the Carbon Greens got of achieving something vaguely like environmentalism by faffing around with the climate question.

          Time to do basic environmentalism before getting excited about the weather in 30 years time…

          21

    • #
      Duster

      Climate is at the minimum a summary of weather over time. If the weather shifts enough to yield environmental changes in plant and animal populations and distributions and regional geological processes, then climate has changed, otherwise, it’s just weather. That definition follows the classical (as in Greek and Roman) view of what constituted “climate.”

      811

  • #
    el gordo

    Good sleuthing by Warwick Hughes.

    Can’t see any climate signal because of the weather noise, the warm nights anomaly might just be negligence.

    1016

  • #
    Robk

    Looks like that CO2 must vary diurnally and come on pretty strong at night, Jo, maybe from the campfire,eh.
    :-)

    1315

    • #
      Robk

      I’ll be loading a truck full of wethers on Monday. Hopefully there’s some money in it for me.

      74

  • #
    Another Ian

    Jo

    Have a look at the Alice Springs area around 1974.

    Some people I know were at a conference there around September. When Alice Springs was up to a hell of a lot of rain for the year, with more to come as I recall.

    They met a character in a pub who allowed “Yair, first normal rain since 1923″.

    1712

  • #
    ianl8888

    How many in the ABC audience would know that?

    Pointless question. How many care to expend energy and time to find the truth ? Zilch is how many. How many believe that they would not be lied to ? All of them is how many.

    1312

    • #

      Ian, not pointless. That’s what the ABC is supposed to be doing — being accurate and non-partisan. The audience listening to the ABC is not supposed to have to do homework…

      3016

      • #
        AndyG55

        “The audience listening to the ABC is not supposed to have to do homework…”

        The audience listening to the ABC generally does not have the ability to do its homework. !!

        1110

  • #
    AndyG55

    That graph looks like it has a very slight downward trend..

    Just like the rest of Australia.

    1717

    • #
      AndyG55

      hmmmm.. so 4 red thumbs.. but none of you have the guts or ability to contest the data.

      Says it all, really. :-)

      1016

    • #
      Mjw

      Looks like the Greens will have to sue Mother Nature for showing a cooling bias.

      712

    • #
      AndyG55

      9 now.. and still ALL too gutless and pathetic to be able to comment :-)

      Green supporters, no doubt. :-)

      Come on one of you …….. if you can find the courage. ;-)

      410

  • #
    AndyG55

    On the more realistic side of life…

    Green energy is going great guns

    1313

  • #
    David Maddison

    The tragedy about all this is that people are being conditioned to believe in runaway warming when the reality is we are likely heading for a seriously big chill which will result in significantly reduced agricultural output, assuming solar output follows its usual cycle and declines.

    Polticians and public serpents need to be put on notice that they will be held accountable for the damage they have caused due to massive redirection of resources based on the falsehood of warming. They also need to be put in notice that they will also be held accountable for a certain other matter causing death and misery around the world.

    2015

    • #
      el gordo

      The Nuremberg defense ‘superior orders’ and the ‘precautionary principle’ should let most of them off the hook.

      612

    • #
      climateskeptic

      The big chill,when will it start? There is no sign of it yet.

      lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for March, 2016 is +0.73 deg. C, down a little from the February record-setting value of +0.83 deg. C (click for full size version). This makes March 2016 the warmest March in the satellite record (since 1979), and statistically tied with April 1998 for the second warmest month.

      http://www.drroyspencer.com/

      155

  • #

    I roam around that hot spot in the middle of the Great Sandy Desert. It’s always hot in summer, but it always cools down quick at night. A lot of storms inflict the area between October and April, so there’s plenty of shady clouds a lot of the time. My last trip there was November. If that is hottest on record, the flora and fauna are loving it.
    There are always fires from lightning in that area, and the flora pictured here, is the regrowth from whatever previous fire burnt it.
    Right in the middle of the dark patch on BoM’s pretty map, and in that linked post, is a well-head, Nicolay 1, showing the environmental impact is nil.
    Images from right in the middle of the dark blob known as The Great Sandy desert. Not a meteorological instrument in sight for a long way.

    2013

    • #
      William

      I just came back from your blog.
      Magnificent!!!!!
      Thank you for posting all those pix;I will be returning and will work my way through all of your postings.
      Thanks again.

      88

  • #

    The SW Kimberley has had a very dry year here this wet season, just 2 of the 5 cyclones BoM forecasted had arrived with little effect, and the monsoon failed to arrive. Yet we were told that the sea was ‘hottest ever’ off the coast here. So, where did our rain go.
    Not the worst year, 1993 was really bad.El Nino?

    912

  • #
    Owen Morgan

    “Hottest ever mean” – that ‘s a classic. It’s like trying to assess the most orange ever Goldfish.

    1113

  • #
    doubtingdave

    Trouble is , since Greg Hunt closed the door on any proper scrutiny , the BOM have become even more confidant in their unaccountability , they can make up whatever the hell they like , you need to put more pressure on the politicians for a proper audit by threatening to withdraw your support , but that’s not easy when survey after survey shows how apathetic the general public is on climate change issues

    1114

  • #
    ken h

    Anthony Watts has written columns on airport temperatures several times. Many airport thermometers are located next to runways and are affected by warm asphalt (and possibly jet exhaust?).

    Rather than runaway warming, it’s just runway warming:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/14/seattles-climate-instantly-cools-1-5-degrees/

    1415

    • #
      Ross

      Ken H… Would it matter that much where they recorded the temperature? Surely the point is whether the temperatures at said airport are going up or not. Over time.

      1411

      • #
        doubtingdave

        Yes Ross , but it seems what they do is take UHI from the Airport , and add it on to other ” local ” thermometer readings , giving the impression that UHI is actually regional warming

        1413

      • #
        Unmentionable

        BOM are interpolating regional warming that almost certainly does not exist from a small patchy sprinkling of very poorly placed temperature sensors, and claiming heating of Australia, as a whole, and a record this and a record that, and post fact changing of prior weather records to suit their agenda, and it is always to make it look colder in the past and hotter and heating now.

        It is inaccurate, it is unscientific, it is unethical, it is at the very least extremely poor method and practices, an it amounts to statistical rigging, by which they conjure and present a fake warming trend (so yes, it matters where they place the thermometers and sensors, but that is only part of the problem as BOM staff are rigging the data anyway), and is dishonest and being used to lead the public astray, to waste literally billions, and for alarmists and partisans to try to persistently muddy political narratives and policy discussions with lies, untruths and rank propaganda, so that actually important matters are ignored or left to one side, while we deal with the contrived claims and narratives of BOM, and the false and misleading propaganda of the ABC, and have to listen to dippy fluff from abject anti human civilization freak shows constantly coming from abject ignorant lying provocateurs on the green side of what they claim to be ‘politics’ and ‘policy debate’.

        Yes, when BOM and ABC are constantly pushing their alarmist pseudo-science, pseudo politics, pseudo-information and pseudo ‘data’, it does matter where and when they have systematically included sensor placement biasing and processing methods into almost all their sensors, to contrive a continental pseudo-’warming’, for daily, weekly, monthly and annual temperature pseudo-records as the official ‘reading’ of the national thermometer.

        Relative-ness is not only not good enough in scientific measurement and data comparison, it’s exactly what science isn’t. The sensors have an absolute limit that all materials are measured against, called absolute zero, we also have the freezing point of water, at 1 standard atmosphere. there is no excuse for:

        1) No excuse for poorly calibrated or erroneous thermometers, or electronic sensors (thus non-relative, but precise!).

        2) No excuse for poor sensor site placement, especially when it’s obvious the current sites are, scientifically, a biased joke (thus bias and subjectivity avoided at all times)

        3) No excuse for poor or inconsistent readings or logging of precision data (i.e. non-relative).

        4) No excuse for deliberately rigging temp statistics and past records.

        5) No excuse for flagrant politicizing of weather in this way, specifically to scare people and promote dangerous fringe political agendas that detract from real issues and wastes billions on these imaginary shams and subsequent follies.

        If you think that doesn’t matter, that only a relative trend matters, regardless of it being systematically biased, data faked then spun as political propaganda, then you’ll settle for any further falsehoods or nonsense subsequently offered from there.

        If you’re not interested in accurate measurement and unadorned presentation and comparison of it (i.e. not interpolated where there is no data), then why bother with data at all, why not just make-up whatever you find to be more appealing, and go with that?

        After all, that’s effectively what BOM decided to do, and what ABC TV spins to gullible ‘folks’, who also don’t think it matters if they’re systematically deceived and plundered by advocates for alarmist sentiments about non-events.

        69

    • #

      Ken, this town has one-roundabout and four streets. I’m amazed the runway is sealed, but it is. When I google there are almost no photos of the “Airport”, so from google maps:

      A close up of (probably) the weather station near the end of the runway. (Left bottom corner).
      https://s3.amazonaws.com/jo.nova/graph/temp/aust/2016/walungurru-kintore-met-site.jpg

      The big picture — the town and airport
      https://s3.amazonaws.com/jo.nova/graph/temp/aust/2016/walungurru-kintore.jpg

      This is not a place where “urban heat island” leaps out at you.

      The original google view.

      917

      • #

        Probably right Jo, the windsock is the larger circle and the met. station the little one. The runway direction is east-west (260/070) so the town is southeast of the airport. As to the UHI effect a gentle breeze across the tarmac may change the readings a little, but I can’t see jet exhausts doing much as there is only probably one turboprop a day.

        48

      • #
        doubtingdave

        For goodness sake , the red thumbs are out in force today , you must of hit a raw nerve today JO , what interests me is that google image you posted , and how red the soil looks around the town compared to the green outback that surrounds it , what effect , if any , would that have on local conditions

        211

        • #
          AndyG55

          I wonder if some of them work at BOM, and have a VERY guilty conscience.

          No wonder they feel so down about themselves that they can’t even string together a few words in argument.

          Sad, and very pathetic. !

          29

          • #
            doubtingdave

            Andy , I wonder how many of them know they are going to be out of work soon , and so have been re employed as red thumb trolls , paid trolls get paid by every comment they generate , so I guess we’ll soon find out

            38

            • #
              Mike

              Carbon Greens/environmentalists might have to go back to basics, like ordinary old growth ‘green’ saving forests or becoming a marine biologist or the like

              15

            • #
              Mike

              These ‘climate adherents’ should never have progressed to satellite sensors and advanced electronic thermometers without first having passed go with the nitty gritty of ordinary environmentalism like preventing chemical leaks, limiting the use of pesticides and herbicides calculating the effects of nuclear fallout and so on.

              Environmentalism is a big subject.

              13

        • #
          Unmentionable

          Kangaroos (and everything else) get under plants in the middle of the day and dig a ditch to get to some cooler occasionally moister ground just under the surface, under the plants. None stay out in the red open terrain as it’s too hot. Look at the satellite image, it’s mostly plants, so where should a representative thermometer be situated?

          BOM seems to like to put them in the hottest and least representative locations achievable.

          66

        • #
          Ross

          Gosh, pretty quick to take offence, aren’t we? Simply point what you perceive to be a few possible misunderstandings and your a paid dupe/troll who will soon be unemployed! Sheesh, toughen up princess.

          44

    • #
      AndyG55

      At the bottom of the BOM map

      “All temperature anomalies are calculated with respect to the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period”

      Walungurru didn’t open until 2002, how can they possibly have a measured temperature anomaly.

      Seems such a calculation would have to be FAKED UP !!!

      913

    • #
      AndyG55

      Jo, did you also note that the other red dot is over and area where there are NO climate stations.

      How very convenient for BOM. !!!

      614

  • #
    Ron C.

    And Arctic ice in March was not as low as reported.

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2016/04/01/a-tale-of-two-indices/

    1113

  • #

    I’ve updated the headline and edited a paragraph to really capture what has been achieved here. The record that was set was March Minimum temperatures. So autumn nights got 1- 2 degrees warmer than usual and marketing turns that into extreme weather.

    1415

    • #
      Ross

      But getting warmer.

      156

    • #
      Ian George

      Jen
      They can also claim the highest mean temp for March on record – 0.03C higher than 1986.
      So the March temps have increased 0.03C in the past 30 years – wow, runaway warming!!!!
      However, I do have a problem with how the BoM work the data.
      I think it’s got something to do with the way it ‘shades/homogenises’ the data. For instance, NSW was 2.5C above average for max temps.
      But if you average the mean temps for each site in NSW it averaged less than 28.6C – which is the state average for the max mean.

      414

  • #
    TdeF

    It is doubtful that without a thermometer people could pick the temperature at any given time to +/-2 degrees. Sir Isaac Newton defined his own 100 degree point as water so hot you could not keep your elbow in it. If it wasn’t for the need to make beer, thermometers and their accuracy would not have been developed as quickly. Now we are told that March is hot because an average is 2C up? Few people know or care and even fewer would think it would make any practical difference. You could replace Hottest and Coldest as within 2C of every other year for a century. In other words, unchanged.

    I also have a deep suspicion that in the 1980s the switch over from visual thermometers to automatic electronics and the big increase in accuracy and repeatability is responsible for the quick +0.5C change without anyone being deliberately deceitful.

    You have to expect such single direction shifts with technology changes because of the differences in resolution, absolute accuracy and repeatability and readability and recording frequency. Perversely it may have been the desire to record temperatures much more accurately and automatically which created the perceived very slight 0.5C problem in a short time. This is close to the original reading accuracy.
    The fact that the temperatures were flat before and after this period seems to confirm this. Then you have to question the absolute and reading accuracy of numbers from 100 years ago and conclude that it is reasonably possible that the temperature in Australia at least has not changed at all in 100 years, especially if the BOM would add the Federation drought.

    Now we only have to deal with terrible Climate Change, if only someone would tell me what has changed?

    1314

    • #
      RB

      This is the GISS data for annual means at Giles. There are quite a few years missing for a major BOM station that are not missing in the current data coming directly from BOM.I can understand that scanning of written records can be a problem but this was a manned BOM site.

      Tefler AP is the other red spot and sole site for 100s of kilometers. It only has data from 1975 so for only half the base period. With over 3° difference between the 10 and 90%tiles, there is a large uncertainty for the mean in the 1961-1990 base period.

      I looked at another warm spot in SW NSW. It has just the one station, Pooncarie Mail Agency which was opened in 1882 but has data only back to 2002. While in the NW of the state, the crimson part overlaps with a few stations that don’t have data prior to 1990, although one was opened in the 19thC. Right in the corner and south are stations that have a long record but also have a recent site switch to the airport, and were not as warm.

      You get a strong feeling that they have deliberately analysed sparse data to boost the Australian mean, and then there is still barely anything unusual.

      712

    • #
      RB

      without anyone being deliberately deceitful.

      Because it stuck out like the dog’s proverbials, I can’t cut them this much slack.

      58

  • #
    Unmentionable

    Actually March was delightful, a surprise this year, as it’s normally hot and humid right into April, but we got early-May like cool clear low-humidity air early and persistent trade flow returned from early March. I’ve not seen the sky so clear and blue for years in March it looked more like early May. It’s normally still a high-humidity light blue-grey tropical murk. Not so this year, it hasn’t been either hot or steamy for three weeks.

    127

  • #
    Peter C

    Extreme weather in March!
    That is nothing new.

    Who remembers this line;
    ” butting up the channel in the mad march days”

    46

    • #
      Peter C

      Slight misquote but I thought some one would get it , and maybe lots did.. The quote is from the poem Cargoes by John Masefield.
      http://allpoetry.com/Cargoes

      What I like is the 3 red thumbs! It looks like I have scored a point here.

      21

  • #

    They really are grasping at straws now, so desperate to keep the warming meme going. Watch them turn on a dime though when the cooling kicks in and they’ll do it with a straight face. Then they wonder why no one believes them anymore.

    What a shocking performance. I’m hoping there are some people in the wings just itching to take over and do it right. There must be a lot of anger behind the scenes. Across the globe, that anger behind the scenes needs to start shouting. Enough is enough is enough already. We need adults to tack back control.

    1112

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    Do humans even notice “mean” temperatures?

    I only notice “mean” temperatures if they throw a punch at me, break into my house, insult my mother, steal my car or something like that. Otherwise they’re harmless. I don’t know exactly what was done to them that makes them so “mean” however. Perhaps a psychologist…?

    1214

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      Looks like that pushed someone up against a hot wire (2:1 against; 1 green, 2 red at this point). I guess no one can take a joke these days. And yet that’s what mean temperatures really are, a joke — a bad one. I can understand highest and lowest temperatures at some given place. They mean something (no pun intended). But what does a mean temperature mean? You probably can’t even tell when it was exactly the mean temperature unless it throws a punch at you and you look at your watch simultaneously.

      Now this will probably get even more red thumbs. I better quit while I’m behind. :-(

      1112

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        And another thing. I thought all this debate was about how much heat the Earth is accumulating because of Green House Gasses. But I don’t even see how knowing the mean temperature can help with that problem.

        It’s sure good for bamboozling the folks though. Sounds so important and official. Perhaps the psychologist should examine a different set of things, maybe the climate change industry instead of the “mean” temperatures.

        Nuts! I forgot to quit. Now I’m in even worse trouble. ;-)

        1013

        • #

          Those red thumbs are a joke. I got 4 for linking to photos of the region. Must be a disease.

          1111

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            I can only give you one green one but thanks for the support. I think I know what the disease is but I’ll avoid naming it for fear of seeing more red thumbs. :-)

            109

            • #
              PeterPetrum

              There you are, Roy. I Green Thumbed all your posts to try and even it up a bit. The guys and girls at the BoM must be on paid overtime today to red thumb this site.

              47

              • #
                Roy Hogue

                Thanks Peter. But it didn’t work. Between what I said and what others said in reply I still have a net deficit of green thumbs. It’s really awful to be treated that way. :-(
                .
                .
                .
                .
                ;-)

                21

          • #
            AndyG55

            They know they have absolutely no come-back.

            They are empty of rational thought, and probably quite distraught at their inability to do anything more than press the red thumb button.

            57

            • #
              Ross

              What’s with the need for green thumbs? If you get enough, do you win a bike or something?

              73

              • #
                Roy Hogue

                No. No bike. Personally I would be happy if the thumbs weren’t a part of the blog because they get tempting to play around with like I did above. It’s bad enough that some resident comedian had to remark about “mean” temperatures that they’re harmless unless they hurt you in some way. Which actually is the truth by the way. :-)

                12

              • #
                AndyG55

                They can red thumb me as much as they like.. I just wish they had the guts to say something.

                Such cowards.

                At least you are brave enough to display your ignorance…

                so you get a green thumb for bravery.

                23

    • #

      12 red thumbs Roy. I’m delighted. I like to know we have a broad audience.

      53

  • #

    The BOM is not troubled much by outside scrutiny these days thanks to Greg Hunt’s Warmista agenda and his protection. They are pretty well free to record what temperatures they want, adjust what temperatures they do mot like, and colour in their maps using any crayons they like to spread the alarm. They are ably assisted in this crusade by the likes of the SMH, ABC, SBS, Commonwealth Government Agencies, etc. Strangely the public is slowly becoming immunized to it all and is disinterested in the great climate change scare, especially when it sees how it drains its wallet but leaves the weather unaffected.

    13

  • #
    Clifford Hay

    Hottest March is surely the hottest March on average. There is no claim that 2016 had the hottest March day. Surely the chart of mean temps from BOM should have been used.

    116

  • #
    AndyG55

    As noted further up.. the second red area is over and region where there are NO climate stations.

    How very convenient for BOM. !!!

    Just MAKE IT UP, guys !!!

    911

    • #
      Dennis

      I thought Propaganda Units funded by taxpayers was third world dirty work?

      512

    • #
      RB

      Tefler is on the NW edge. Careful to make sure the min temp option rather than rainfall is selected.

      True AndyG55, most of the that second red area has no data but Tefler was 3.8°above its mean. It doesn’t have data before 1974.

      54

      • #
        AndyG55

        Tefler is above the top edge of the red, as far as I can make out.

        23

        • #
          AndyG55

          still, how does that whole area get shaded red , with ZERO data. !!

          ps.. might be interesting to see if it was “corroboree” time in that region.

          or maybe someone “important” visited.

          510

          • #
            RB

            Its in the algorithm. Just under 4 on one side and nothing for 100s kilometers on the other side in a region that is 4.

            Even in places like Melb, there is only two still open stations that have records covering the base period within 50km, one being just over the 2 and the other under. Moorabbin has a record that partially covers the period and was 1.7 above the mean for that period.

            The whole region gets 2-3 using closed stations for the base period and newer stations for the recent March mean. The only station that had close to 3 above was Essendon.

            01

            • #
              RB

              Its in the algorithm. Just under 4 on one side and nothing for 100s kilometers on the other side in a region that is less than 4 but the area in between is 4-5° above the base period mean.

              01

              • #

                I believe/guess they use altitude to estimate neighboring temperatures, which is why the maps look “incredibly accurate” as the color fill curves according to wiggles in topography. A few thermometers can create an intricate pattern… and a rather misleading effect that we have all that data when we are interpolating.

                We guesstimate this from the work we did with Lance Pidgeons analysis of maps from 1915 or so (where that part of Australia had suspiciously similar “wiggles” each day of the year, year after year. ie May 7 1913 looked like May 7 1914 looked like May 7 1915…)

                Giles is about 150m higher than Walgurru-Kintore. I think Giles is nearly 600m.

                Though perhaps someone can check if the temperature inclines follow a map of topography.

                23

  • #
    handjive

    “Stick with the logic. Must be CO2 that caused the cold spike in 2011 (and 1967, 1942 and 1913). This is witchcraft.”

    OK … Meanwhile, in the northern hemisphere, Global Warming carbon (sic) has this observed effect:

    April 2, 2016: Once the sun goes down, wet roads could quickly become icy and the snow will have an easier time accumulating as temperatures plummet on Saturday night.

    Then again, it was only 2 years ago when the NYT announced the end of snow.

    Then again, it was only 5 years ago when they announced: Global warming means more snowstorms: scientists

    Climatic Change and Witch-hunting: the Impact of the Little Ice Age on Mentalities
    Wolfgang Behring, September 1999, Volume 43, Issue 1, pp 335-351

    611

    • #
      Unmentionable

      We should have followed the lead of the EU Commission and reduced the wattage of our vacuum cleaners.

      75

    • #
      Mari

      NE Ohio, at least, is cold and wet. We’ve had snow twice this month, only 6 days in, and night temps at 20F or less at least once. My wild peach is starting to bloom, but the blooms, if they emerge, may not survive to produce peaches if the cold keeps up. Right now we have a balmy 52 deg. F with ice and rain falling – temps to fall soon as well.

      It’s weather.

      10

  • #
    Mike

    Weather or not to ‘weather‘ the climate, or, ‘climate‘ the weather, that is the question. that needs to be answered at mind boggling frequency every hour, minute, second, picosecond and so on….

    It is a kind of attention deficit disorder, so that when it gets down to the ‘nitty gritty’ of doing non ‘carbon Green’, ordinary ‘green’ practical environmentalism like saving forests, preserving the tiny remnant of biodiversity that is left, the distraction of talking about the weather comes up relentlessly so that it displaces the need to those traditionalal practical things like the saving of the aforementioned remnant biological diversity in our care. The kinds of things that Bob Brown went to jail for trying to do recently as an example.

    One way of looking at is like this……If these alleged greens (Carbon Greens) who cannot even get the ordinary easy stuff like saving flora/fauna from extinction right, then would you trust them with any other environmental duties, theories, works, and the like.

    39

  • #
    Ted O'Brien.

    It certainly was a remarkably consistent warm March here, with of 32 consecutive days from mid February only 3 below 30 degrees, at 29.9, 29.7 and 29.0. Of the rest of March none was cold.

    Trouble is, Ever started in 1991.

    43

  • #
    davey street

    This is just more agenda driven nonsense from the Australian Bullshit Corporation not to be even considered by clear thinking intelligent human beings.

    24

  • #
    Unmentionable

    … 32 consecutive days

    from mid February

    Mid-February is not March.

    54

  • #
    Owen Morgan

    Well, I see the trolls have really been rampaging on Jo’s site. It beggars belief that they really imagine that voting a thumb’s down for a point of view actually makes it wrong, but, tragically, I suppose people like Cook, Schmidt and Mann genuinely do think that way.

    129

    • #
      AndyG55

      I luv getting those red thumbs.

      It shows I have annoyed some nameless, brainless CAGWer. :-)

      36

    • #
      AndyG55

      “Well, I see the trolls have really been rampaging on Jo’s site”

      Actually Owen, not one of the red-thumbers has the balls to even comment !!

      Pressing the red thumb button hardly counts as “rampaging”… except perhaps to them ;-)

      87

      • #
        Analitik

        It is typical of the CAGW crowd that they contribute nothing of substance. The red thumbs are symbolic of the lack of comeback they have on the subject – they can only express disapproval but cannot justify why.

        44

      • #
        Ross

        Comment on what Andy? That you’re really really mad? Chill baby. It might even get you more of those green thumbs you seem so desperate for. I’m going to give you one right now. Happy now?

        54

      • #
        Ross

        Rampaging, no. But simply pressing a thumb button seems to really send you into spasms. Can you blame them. A big green thumb from me just to make you feel better. There. All better now shnooks?

        55

      • #
        AndyG55

        Spasms of laughter at the ignorance and ineffective ineptitude, Ross.

        And you epitomise both, to the bone. :-)

        44

    • #
      doubtingdave

      Owen , its really quite fascinating , normally on JO’S blog when a contentious issue is discussed , we get trolls that are paid by every comment that they generate , but now the funding has been cut , we seem to be getting voluntary red thumbs , are the alarmists trying to turn their cause into the equivalant of a charity shop , where they rely on the unpaid services of volunteers

      67

      • #
        Owen Morgan

        Presumably, Cook will shortly be issuing a report which establishes as rock-solid fact (honest, guv) that 97% of Jo’s readers don’t agree with their own comments.

        67

      • #
        Ross

        Honestly, you guys and your thumbs! Here’s a big green thumb for you too, doughtingdave. I really like you.

        35

  • #
    William

    WTF???????

    Could someone please explain why my post at 9.1 has five down thumbs???

    Have we arrived in Wonderland with Alice, or what?

    22

    • #
      Hugs

      Because there are idiots in the Internet, as everywhere in the world. Don’t be insulted or annoyed, it just encourages them.

      23

      • #
        AndyG55

        I like to encourage them. :-)

        Would love it even more if they actually were able to express their outrage in words.

        10

    • #
      Analitik

      You’re up to eight now, William.
      Maybe the AYCC have found this site after the Adani Carmichael mine references. Still no reasoning provided for the disapproval though – possibly because they can’t provide any

      00

  • #
  • #
    Don Gaddes

    The current Solar-induced Orbital ‘Dry’Cycle hierarchy (X Factor?) started around 110 degrees East longitude (Beijing) in early February 2014 – and reached Australia’s East coast in early January 2015.
    There were five cyclones in quick succession, recorded over Northern Australia and the Coral Sea in March/April 2015 – due very much to explosive volcanic activity in the Indonesian Achipelago – and thus ameliorating the effects of the current ‘Dry’ Cycle Hierarchy.
    With reduced volcanic activity, there has been little cyclone activity this season (2016.)
    Reduced Albedo means higher temperatures and less precipitation.
    Note also the Lunar Metonic Cycle is now in effect, (exacerbating the ‘Dry’ Cycles.) This proximity of the Lunar Metonic Cycle (2016,) may mean that 2018 will be ‘Dry’ instead of the predicted Wet/Normal,(‘Tomorrow’s Weather.’) The next Two Year Wet/Normal Period will reach Australia in early 2020. (Note; Australia is one of the last countries affected in the longitudinal planetary orbit of these cycles.)
    Alex S. Gaddes proposed the existence of the X factor – and provided documentation of it’s exact terrestrial foot-print,( Solar -induced Orbital’Dry’ Cycles,) in his work ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ (1990)
    David Evans has yet to acknowledge the existence of these ‘Dry’ Cycles,or the fact that the ‘X Factor’ was ‘discovered’ circa thirty seven years ago.
    An updated version of the above work, (including ‘Dry’ Cycle forecasts to 2055,) is available as a free pdf from dongaddes93@gmail.com

    01

  • #
    Harry Twinotter

    The March 2016 mean temperature was a record for Australia.

    The March 2016 minimum temperature was a record by around 1C. This is pretty significant. There is scientific evidence that most of the global warming occurs at night, so this result is consistent with global warming.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries&tQ%5Bgraph%5D=tmin&tQ%5Barea%5D=aus&tQ%5Bseason%5D=03&tQ%5Bave_yr%5D=T

    01