Bill Nye and co at DeSmog are congratulating themselves on his bold $10K offer to bet that 2016 will be one of the ten “hottest” ever years. But 2016 is already the hottest ever year — it’s been reported in The Guardian, and New Scientist. And even if it isn’t the hottest ever year yet, it will be one day after the results get post hoc adjusted.
Heck, It only has to be two hundreds of a degree hotter to get a NOAA and NASA special spin and press release. In 2014 the error bars were 500% bigger than the record but it’s the spirit that counts, not the signal-to-noise ratio.
Forget century-trends, in it’s dying days, the Trillion Dollar CO2 theory apparently boils down to 8 month bets on El Nino ephemera. Which coupled climate model predicted this El Nino from way back in 2010?
Marc Morano was totally right to call it “silly”. Nye’s other bet on offer was o’so bravely predicting that essentially the next three years won’t be super cool. O Bravo. Will the current decade be the “hottest on record”? The climate just has to stay the same as it has for most of the last 20 years and “voila”.
If Bill Nye wanted a real bet on the theory of a man-made climate crisis he can copy the formula of serious climate bets years ahead of him — We’re talking about actual climate trends not just bets on noise. The Nye bets were not bets that the climate models were right, or that the theory could predict the trends.
Jail for climate deniers?
Marc Morano asked Bill Nye about the possibility of jail for climate scientists as “war criminals”, and Bill Nye replied
“Well, we’ll see what happens. Was it appropriate to jail the guys from ENRON?”
Nye added, “For me as a taxpayer and voter — the introduction of this extreme doubt about climate change is affecting my quality of life as a public citizen.”
Because oil keeps you warm, but coal jumps you in back alleys and auctions you off to the highest bidder.