JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Hottest seasonally adjusted month EVER! Hyperbole runs wild.

Who needs a trend when you can have a hot month?

The news is all over the media — Feb 2016 was a record hottest ever month — and the Global Worriers  are saying “Meltdown“, “Planetary Crisis” and “Terrifying Milestone.”

But the Pause is still there. No matter what happens now, the world didn’t warm for 18 years, and that shows the models can’t predict a thing. (Unless they take solar factors into account, which they don’t).

One big El Nino didn’t fix the climate models now. (They can’t predict El Nino’s either).

Nothing that happens after 2015 can change the amount of energy that went missing during the Pause that no mainstream modeler predicted. Remember these models are supposed to be coupled ocean and atmosphere models, but none of them understand what causes shifts in the PDO, or many other natural cycles and currents of the ocean. So with every natural spike up, modelers unscientifically leap in glee, and with the other 99% of the data, they blame internal variability. But a real scientist is scientific every month. Trends, guys, trends. That’s what this debate was supposed to be about. Not spikes. Not noise.

During the last whopper El Nino in 1997-98, CO2 levels were 365ppm, They’re now 400ppm. This El Nino should be hotter than the last big one. For a lot of the last 10 years the Global Worriers have been claiming that we can’t start a pause with an El Nino. So why is OK to stop a Pause with one?

Global Record Temperatures, Map.

The heat wasn’t “global” but was an Arctic, Russian, Alaskan thing (see the dark red above and the top graph of the three below). It’s likely the heat has come out of the ocean. So an ocean current may have shifted. Or solar influences may have moved the jet streams….

Graph, UAH, satellite, TEmperatures, 2016

There is no planetary emergency in half the planet.

Thanks to Jennifer Marohasy, Lance, John.

UPDATE: See Jennifer Marohasy’s post on this.

 

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Hottest seasonally adjusted month EVER! Hyperbole runs wild., 8.5 out of 10 based on 73 ratings

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248 comments to Hottest seasonally adjusted month EVER! Hyperbole runs wild.

  • #
    Get Real

    Hyperbole? More like an apoplectic diatribe from all the usual suspects.

    184

  • #
    Yonniestone

    Only the northern hemisphere? I’m shocked, the CAGW frightbats never do things by half!

    202

    • #
      AndyG55

      “Only the northern hemisphere?”

      And in the NH winter.

      It was NOT HOT, just somewhat less COLD

      242

    • #
      Ron

      So it looks like more research has to be done in the Southern Hemisphere. Here is the thing, I’m closing down my business after being self employed for 40 years from the age of 18 and I’m looking for something to do. Seems to me the alarmists down south need a hand to dig their graphs out of a hole. Maybe someone can pay me some of these millions that are going around. I good at spreadsheets and I’m sure I will love traveling first class.

      261

      • #

        Ron,
        There is a great need for people with basic spreadsheet skills in climate community, so I am sure that you will be in demand. Two examples

        1. Dr Phil Jones of the CRU at University of East Anglia confessed on an email to Bob Ward on 20 Dec 2007 with respect to doing a simple linear regression:-

        I’m not adept enough (totally inept) with excel to do this now as no-one who knows how to is here.

        2. Lewandowsky, Oberauer and Gignac, in their “NASA faked the moon landing|Therefore (Climate) Science is a Hoax: An Anatomy of the Motivated Rejection of Science“ failed to do some basic data checks. If they has used some simple pivot tables, like I did, they would have found out only 10/1145 supported the Moon Hoax conspiracy theory. Of these only 3 supported Climate Change conspiracy. Of these only 2 scored “4” (strongest support) for both.

        So, Ron, your spreadsheet skills could be of immense importance to the climate community and would be welcomed by those who want to advance understanding of the data.

        31

    • #
      AndyG55

      I think I showed the Australian temps last thread.

      http://s19.postimg.org/m4jm9tfeb/Aust_Feb2016.png

      Seems that Australia is not part of the “Global” warming

      Neither is the USA either by the look of it.

      http://s19.postimg.org/kqrzeig4z/USA_Feb.png

      The UAH NoPol graph looks pretty weird though.

      http://s19.postimg.org/thgmpt5wz/UAH_No_Pol.png

      142

    • #
      James Murphy

      relatively straightforward physics – hot air rises…so it went to the top… though I am not sure why it hasn’t fallen off the edge of the planet yet.

      120

      • #
        Leonard Lane

        James, because global warming is everywhere, does everything, and is very sticky. Once you touch it it never lets go. The warm air just rises to the North Pole and piles up hundreds or thousands of km deep so it can come roaring back anytime they need a new crisis or… drum roll…the hottest year evah!

        81

      • #
        PeterS

        The reason it didn’t fall off the edge is because there’s a 50m or so high wall of ice all around the edge. That’s what the flat earthers say. Some of them say it’s also guarded by NASA to prevent people from reaching that far and falling off the edge. Well why not? It’s just as stupid as what the global warming/climate change alarmists are saying. How come the media is not pushing such nonsense?

        51

        • #
          Dave in the States

          How come the media is not pushing such nonsense?

          Because there is no money and power to be gained from that brand of nonsense. AGW nonsense, on the other hand, has lots and lots of money and power involved.

          10

  • #
    MarloweJ

    Hi Jo,
    Typo 4000ppm.

    140

  • #

    Any anomoly supporting AGW, irrespective of its duration and location, will receive celebrity media coverage, but for the converse, the S. Hem. didn’t warm, is not reported. The realists were expecting some warming due to el Nino but so far nothing much and in Australia we are getting some good rainfall at the moment.

    111

  • #
    sophocles

    NZ’s summer hasn’t been at all unusual, temperature-wise. February was late getting into its stride with temps not reaching the high 20′s or touching 30C until about the third week. The only thing which can’t be claimed as normal has been the regular rainfall. Every weekend, of course. The usual is for my lawns to go brown somewhere towards the end of January and not require mowing again until the second half of March. This time, they stayed green and just grew!. The lawn mowers (the machine and me) didn’t get their annual holiday. I can’t remember when I last had green lawns right through summer.

    According to Dr. James Salinger, `…drought is the new norm.‘ That was back in 2012. We hadn’t had one for some years before then and haven’t had one since, except for Marlborough (top right quarter of the South Island) where drought is the old norm.

    131

    • #
      Dennis

      High 20s? In Australia the television news and weather people call that heat waves.

      31

      • #

        Added a para to the post now that I am awake…

        Nothing that happens after 2015 can change the amount of energy that went missing during the Pause that no mainstream modeler predicted. Remember these models are supposed to be coupled ocean and atmosphere models, but none of them understand what causes shifts in the PDO, or many other natural cycles and currents of the ocean. So with every natural spike up, modelers unscientifically leap in glee, and with the other 99% of the data, they blame internal variability. But a real scientist is scientific every month. Trends, guys, trends. That’s what this debate was supposed to be about. Not spikes. Not noise.

        146

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      We had a rubbish growing season…..rain and then hot then rain…..our peach trees normally turn it on, not this year though…..another bust….

      We do have a green lawn though….normally its a bit more brown…

      40

  • #
    Peter Miller

    January to March are traditionally the warmest months in a typical El Niño.

    As this was the strongest El Niño in recent history, it would not be unreasonable to expect an anomaly of circa 1.0 degrees C and that’s exactly what we are getting.

    It was so predictable that alarmists would start bleating hysterically about this, but the silence from the ecoloon community will be deafening this time next year when the next La Niña kicks in giving us abnormally low temperatures.

    Anyhow, it seems some of Trenberth’s heat hidden in the deep ocean did a bolt for freedom, at least that’s what the alarmists would like you to believe.

    212

  • #
    Cookster

    Why do I need to go to Jo Nova to get the truth? If I rely on the MSM for my news I’d be in panic mode. Thanks Jo for setting the MSM record straight! I’ll be keeping this one up my sleeve if anyone I talk to brings up the hottest year or month ever claptrap.

    181

    • #
      Dennis

      A builder I know says that people need to get out of their air conditioned vehicles, offices and homes more often.

      100

    • #
      gigdiary

      Why do I need to go to Jo Nova to get the truth?

      Here’s my question:

      Why don’t politicians go to Jo Nova to learn the truth? Jo’s blog is an immeasurably valuable resource jam-packed with scientific facts, discourses and qualified opinions from around the world.

      Her blog is readily available, ie free, and contains many comments that even a politician or musician can understand. On the other hand, if you’re looking for more detailed explanations there’s enough of that here to make a layman’s eyes water and a true scientist begin debating rigorously.

      Jo’s blog should be required reading for our members of parliament, especially Greg Hunt and Malcolm Turnbull.

      It is a travesty of environmental justice that the MSM rarely, if ever, refers to Jo Nova whereas the Greens are consulted almost on a daily basis.

      Besides all that, this is also a most entertaining blog. There is humour and lots of it, common sense by the bucket load, and a sense of being in the company of adults, rather than those shrieking leftists more intent on pushing ideology instead of reality.

      82

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        Jo pushes an ideology – she calls it, “Rational Scientific Inquiry”, which, as a name, has too many syllables for most journalists and politicians to get their collective heads around.

        “Global Warming”, on the other hand, has only four syllables, evenly distributed.

        Paying attention to the way phrases are structured to carry a simple message that stays in the mind, is important when crafting propaganda media releases.

        81

  • #

    Never mind, it’s with this sort of hype that they habitually shoot themselves in the foot. Those who fall for it and go into panic mode because of this will be the very ones who will shortly be saying, “Hey, wait a minute…” when the ‘catastrophe’ yet again fails to arrive – or worse, when the weather turns cold.

    The boy who cried wolf turned out to be his own worst enemy. With every shout of alarm, they lose a few more supporters when the threat doesn’t arrive. It’s been over 30 years now since I was first told we humans were responsible for the any-minute-then-and-now end of civilization, the world, nature, food, oil, standing room and polar bears.

    The alarm is bigger now than it was then. The threat isn’t, just the alarm. Because the alarm is bigger, the repercussions back on them should be substantial. I hope it is.

    I’m fed up and angry at being told I’m evil, that humanity is evil, that every generation is evil and civilization is evil. I’m fed up and angry at the guilt being shoveled at me from every direction. I’m fed up and angry at being blamed for every variation of nature – for the weather being hot, cold, windy, snowy, dry, wet.

    I am not responsible for every fish and bird and animal and tree. Nor are you! We are NOT GUILTY of any sort of crime just because we exist. We need to chop down and burn the mindset that says we are.

    232

    • #
      Truthseeker

      ADE, this is how those who have no real power try to get power over others – guilt and fear.

      I follow a simple rule, if someone is trying to make you feel guilty or trying to frighten you … they are lying. People who deal in reality will give you data. People who want power over others give you emotional arguments based on fear and guilt.

      Rational thinking is hard because it requires discipline. Emotional thinking is easy and gives you the feeling of superiority over others.

      An easy choice for the intellectually challenged …

      130

      • #

        Spot on, Truthseeker – I figured that out for myself over the years. Manipulators, every last one of them. It ought to be a crime.

        I said in my post that it has been over 30 years since I was first told we were all so horribly sinful merely for existing – then I did the sums. It’s actually closer to 50 years!!!

        There should be shock and outrage that generation after generation are taught to be so thoroughly self-loathing. Could you imagine what a fantastic world this would be if we didn’t hate ourselves? Didn’t feel guilt?

        I don’t care if this is on the books or not – what’s been going on in the West to indoctrinate our kids – EVERY generation – is a deliberate crime, plain and simple.

        80

      • #
        KinkyKeith

        I like that one and that’s the Truth.

        20

    • #
      sophocles

      and not to mention destroying the ozone layer, causing epidemics of skin cancers and cataracts, dead and dying computers along with everything they controlled from the Y2K bug and more. So I won’t mention it. You all know the drill: everything is a disaster, and will destroy the human race, the planet and the galaxy … ah, forget the last one … and especially if we don’t panic, rush round like Chicken Littles and DO Something … Now.

      Here’s something else we have to panic over: there’s a new comet, 252P/Linear in the neighbourhood. It;s going to pass about 5Mega Miles away. It’s not going to set the heavens alight but should be Mark I Eyeball visible by the 21st or 22nd. If you know where to look. And you’ve got clear skies. It’s always 10/10ths cloud when something interesting happens up there.

      50

  • #
    Joe Lalonde

    We keep getting waves of warm air coming from the States that have been holding back the real nasty cold.
    Don’t fool yourself, there still was minus 40 and 50 degrees up there.
    As a consolation that no one is taking about is all the rain and snow we have been having.
    Just on how unseasonably warm due to man made global warming.

    We decimated our manufacturing with free trade…so…I wonder what else they can blame?
    Oh right, us trying to keep warm with woodstoves and natural gas burning.

    72

    • #
      Joe Lalonde

      Oh no [snip]

      [Not even a parody on this subject] ED

      31

    • #
      Mike

      Joe Lalonde, Matter is energy.
      Economic activity is anthropogenic and precedes the production of CO2 by approximately a nanosecond and actually causes economic warming and economic cooling.

      As you know, “matter is energy” and in your case it is wood in the stove that is caused by your anthropogenic economic activity.

      Check this video and wear more hats.

      https://youtu.be/O2QJvc_SxFQ?t=37

      00

  • #
    Graeme No.3

    Hysteria from the AGW doomsters. With Trump & others openly ridiculing their faith and their wish list they are desperate to try and drown them out. If the USA drops out of the plan where is the money going to come from? And if the money flow shrinks then more and more will desert the sinking ship.

    Already well over 90% of the people in the World are not participating in the plan. All across Asia, Africa and South America the only agreement they get is from those wanting money. Mugabe as a figurehead??? Never mind what they say about the Paris ‘Agreement’ it is every country for itself when it comes to reliable electricity. Coal fired power stations are being built by the hundreds, with many new nuclear ones as well. Only in Europe, the USA under Obama, Canada under Frootloop is there any attempt to remain on track. We have to be careful that Hunt and Turnbull don’t drag us aboard as the ship goes under.

    242

    • #
      AndyG55

      “We have to be careful that Hunt and Turnbull don’t drag us aboard as the ship goes under.”

      I agree completely with that sentiment..

      But HOW?

      The only way I can see the stupidity being blocked is if there are enough Liberals left to keep Turnbull from bringing in HIS ETS.

      Let’s not forget that this would be his nest egg for life (on top of his parliamentary pension.)

      160

      • #
        ianl8888


        … this would be his nest egg for life …

        He already has that, not an issue

        What’s in it for him is the narcissistic thrill of Noble Cause Corruption. World-wide arbitrage from trading thin air AND saving te planet. Will there be enough mirrors for him ?

        150

  • #
    • #
      Peter C

      Interesting.

      Jo says @5.1.1 that we should be looking at trends, not spikes and noise.

      One question I have asked before is “what causes the spikes and the noise?”
      There was a huge spike in 1998 which is put down to a very strong El Niño. Now we have another strong El Niño associated with another huge spike.

      The sudden cooling of the IndoPacific Warm Pool at the same time as the spike in global temperature suggests an overturning of those tropical waters with a huge release of heat. Maybe the smaller noise peaks and troughs are also caused by a similar mechanism, just smaller scale.

      20

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    If February, 2016 was the hottest month ever then they certainly didn’t come measuring anything around here. We had it cold and cloudy most of the time.

    Hyperbole: as in hyperbola, one of two curves in a plane that never come back to connect to themselves like a circle or an ellipse. It always goes farther and farther from where you start, no matter where you start. Even if you pick a point and a direction that leads you back toward the focus point you still end up getting farther and farther out in left field — or out in space as the case may be. Amazingly similar to climate science, don’t you think.

    Then if you really want a little variety in choice of ways to go there’s the hyperbolic paraboloid. In one cross section it’s a parabola and at right angles to that it’s a hyperbola. Climate scientists could choose how fast they want to depart from reality that way.

    My first job in computers was with a company that used the hyperbolic paraboloid as it’s company logo. They did it much greater credit than climate science. :-)

    And here come those men in white suits with their nets again. Nuts! Gotta run. ;-)

    92

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      Sometimes I really think I am losing my mind. Nothing can be this ridiculous in reality so I must be imagining this hottest February ever. :-(

      81

    • #
      bobl

      Imagination, is so powerful if you close your eyes real tight and imagine with all your might you may just conjure up a unicorn, oops warm February.

      Frankly this is absurd, why do we bleat constantly about warming that’s occuring where we don’t care. Frankly I couldn’t give a rats whether siberia was -35 instead of the usual -40 or antarctica is having a heatwave of -80. Roy, this was the RICO point I made before, even if global warming is accepted, it matters WHERE it happens and when and noone can prove even a relationship with regional weather yet, it’s paranoid speculation based on models (of a chaotic system) all the way. If evaporation (rainfall) increases just 0.8 percent there could be no global warming, that’s how much energy evaporating water uses up! It constantly annoys me that the climate scientologists claim increased humidity fron CO2 feedback without the need for more hydrological cycling to support it. If you put more water in the air then when the cool air masses arrive more water falls from the sky.

      Anyway, Global warming policy should be in the context of what humans really care about and that’s probably 60S to 65N

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      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Bob,

        You are, of course, correct. It does matter where it happens. But if you’re the big bad wolf trying to get everyone to be afraid of you, then you must make it matter everywhere, even when it’s totally inconsequential. Personally I’m looking at that wolf and saying, “You aren’t even a good child’s story, much less something I would notice if not for your constant bleating about it more like a sheep than a wolf. Baah, baah, baah… It’s just noise, very annoying noise but still, just noise.”

        00

    • #
      James Murphy

      Hyperbole, or, as Australia’s first female PM said in an interview, “hyper-bowl“. There I was thinking that competent and decent lawyers were quite good at English – oh, I see where I went wrong there.

      162

      • #
        KinkyKeith

        A very subtle and appropriate insinuation James.

        31

      • #
        bobl

        No, she was really referring to March, Super-Bowl is in February so March must be the Hyper-Bowl right?

        /sarc (as if anyone really needed to know)

        20

        • #
          betapug

          The “Hyperbowl” was in Paris in December. The Rich Team say they won. If you missed it, the next one is in Marrakesh this November.

          40

  • #
    Veritas Raptor

    Well, isn’t that interesting.
    The heat is in a “dark place the sun don’t shine” area.
    That is certainly a way to get rid of it.

    60

  • #
    el gordo

    Over at WUWT Bill Illis provided this graph, which reinforces my belief that we have been here before and the future is ours to see.

    http://s7.postimg.org/3o5pf19l7/1877_78_Super_El_Nino.png

    71

    • #
      Manfred

      ‘Back to the Future’ el gordo? May well be.
      Gird your loins if so.
      ‘Global warming’ is invoked as required and continues in conjunction with the ‘climate change ™’(UN) political narrative.

      MSM propaganda driven by the controlling eco-marxists in programming and policy replaces the daily news with social grooming sound bites, turning the weather forecast into climate change indoctrination. TVNZ even ran the long debunked Hollywood climafiction movie ‘An Inconvenient Truth’.

      The relentless barrage continues.

      It needs to doesn’t it?

      A future reality of societal suicide at the hands of eco-totalitarians is tricky. Persuading people to embrace it willingly takes cult like dedication.

      81

      • #
        el gordo

        ‘It needs to doesn’t it?’

        Yes and they will spin it out, but its unsustainable in the medium to long term.

        20

      • #
        KinkyKeith

        “Social grooming soundbites”.

        Captures the essence of modern education and politics.

        20

    • #
      The Backslider

      McAffee flags your link as a suspicious website.

      00

  • #
    Manfred

    Jo posts images courtesy of NASA GISS showing Surface Temperature Analysis, one of the more adjusted temperature datasets – see here and here.
    On the other hand the, UAH lower troposphere temperature graphs for February 2016 are shown but a comparative depiction appears unavailable, although there is a depiction here for January 2016 providing limited visual comparison with the later GISS image (February 2016).

    Nevertheless, a comparison between two data sets measuring different points by different means appears a trifle confusing … nonetheless, despite this challenge, in both cases climageddon remains firmly anchored to climafictionand and realpolitik

    71

  • #
    TedM

    An interesting post over at Notrickszone. Grsph http://kaltesonne.de/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/ben7.png showing almost mirror image of argo temps from Indo Pacific Warm Pool and GISS surface temps for Jan 2013 to July 2015.

    51

  • #
    Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7

    Proofreading alert:

    Dureing the last whopper El Nino in 1997-98, CO2 levels were 365pp, They’re now 4000ppm.

    (One spelling error and one too many zeros error).

    70

  • #
    Willy

    Thanks Jo, was hoping I wasn’t the only one who noticed. We came out of the coldest victorian winter in 26 years, with plenty of media hype about the ‘super’ El Nino coming. Now there is no mention of the El Nino, only record breaking climate change.

    81

  • #
    KinkyKeith

    And back in the real world in January my sister in law had to overnight in Japan.

    The reason being that the airport she was heading for was snowed under.

    When Dulles International, just out of Washington, was cleared she was eventually able to get to her snowbound home in Falls Church Va.

    On another tack: in the past two weeks I have been unfortunately drawn into discussions on Man Made CO2 Global Warming.

    I have been shocked at the level of rage, animosity and certainty of those who “believe” in CAGW.

    They have taken the bait hook line and sinker and wont let go.

    As I said a few posts back, this CAGW meme is firmly embedded in Australian society to a frightening level.

    Last night an acquaintance mentioned the fate of pale- geologists who make the mistake of “speaking” the truth.

    They have to move on.

    Bob Carter was badly treated by his last university and apparently he is not alone.

    THERE IS A LOT OF MONEY INVOLVED IN GRANTS ASSOCIATED WITH CAGW AND ANYBODY WHO STEPS BETWEEN THE UNIVERSITY ADMIN AND THE CASH IS IN BIG TROUBLE.

    How did this delusion get such a hold?

    The worlds power generation has been set back twenty years because of the political imperative which must be obeyed.

    A world with NO dams and the collapsing renewables scam in Germany, Britain, Spain and Tasmania as well as the infiltration of CAGW into mainstream science is not a world with a bright future.

    The EEU and California are the Models of the disorganization created by adherence to the CAGW Myth.

    Something has to crack soon.

    KK

    252

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      I think its not just CAGW where people have swallowed the Kool Aid of modern society – and this is the problem with “smart” phones – now every idiot can have an opinion, the problem is the ideiopts *love* the 6 oclock news because they havent worked out its not actually *news*….

      Exhibit “A” – I tried to post some dissenting views about the Safe Schools thing – I viewed my posts on a wel known ( a very left wing “indep…” news paper ) being trashed one after the other, nothing that would dare threaten the little diddums precious views of their own twisted delusions should be allowed to sallie forth….

      I think this world is ripe for WW3 – the bulk of th epopulation seem to have been thoroughly brainwashed, and are sheep ripe for shearing by the Elites….whither go-eth common sense….

      71

      • #
        Greebo

        Ww3? Could happen, but the usual suspects will not be on the front line now, will they, so the problem will simply be back once the dust settles.

        10

  • #
    Scott

    I’ve enjoyed telling them “so now you agree global warming is natural not CO2 driven” after the normal bluster and bubble I explain the El Nino is a natural event so the warming spike is due to a natural event there is no massive CO2 spike I can see that preceded the warm spike to cause the warming so you have just shot down the cultists main arguments.

    its natural and not CO2 driven

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    • #
      TdeF

      As for climate models, they cannot predict any of these big multi year events El Nino or La Nina let alone storms. They cannot even predict the progress of these events or when they will end. This is not science, it is observation.

      The core idea of the big climate models is that because of the random nature of the weather with so many variables, the models predict only the big picture. You are asked to believe this when in fact there is no reason to believe it. Now after 18 years of fundamental failure, we are to believe unknown natural variation is responsible for the failure of their core predictions with the essential hot spot missing and the temperature quite stable.

      It is possibly the first time in history people have been asked to panic because nothing is happening. Another thirty years of this and politicians will have real trouble raising carbon taxes.

      61

    • #
      Dennis

      I was shocked a couple of nights ago when watching documentaries on Egypt when the presenter mentioned that climate change had impacted there thousands of years ago. Did their Chariots have V8 petrol powered engines?

      60

      • #
        TdeF

        Yes, the term has become so ubiquitous that all climate change is now associated with CO2, even if an asteroid hit the planet. In Egypt it was the cooling which produced climate change which destroyed the lush jungles above the current desert. After all, the oil had to come from somewhere. Ironically the heat stopped and therefore the monsoons stopped and the vegetation died and the deserts took over. Everyone took shelter in the Nile valley, a place better described as the Nile Gully. 81 Million people now live in a long canyon created by cooling while devastating a lush landscape.

        However everyone is scared of heat, not cold. So from time immemorial the fires of hell are used to scare people, not murderous cold. The new religion of Climate Change uses the same tactics, borrowed from the Egyptians. The Christians had no idea of this fear of heat and concepts like the devil. They are all borrowed ideas, used to good effect by the Profiteers of Doom.

        50

  • #
    Rocky

    Tired Eyes Jo — 400 ppm not 4000

    See also Bishop Hill about a disturbing event on baby shaking and science not all that nice as well.

    30

    • #
      PeterPetrum

      You beat me to it, Rocky. I think it’s 4000 in greenhouses!

      –Yes sorry. There were quite a few. Not enough sleep. — Jo

      20

  • #
    TdeF

    Where is the balance? This search for the Global Heating monster is so Keystone Cops, with doors slamming and people running and our climate council telling us we are doomed. Everything which happens is an extreme event and Climate Change according to Roo boy. Nothing just happens any more. Even the awful Scooby Doo plots with the scary monster look more plausible.

    Politically motivated scientific groups have been at this climate game for thirty years, looking to justify a carbon tax. Even the New York Times is accusing Australia of stopping the search for the monster they believe is hiding and new ambassador Hockey is having to deny we have dropped the Global Warming ball.

    When did science become a cartoonish game? Why are we Australians paying at least 350 CSIRO scientists to pretend to research Climate Change/Global Warming/Ocean Acidification just to please US political lobby groups? Surely the CSIRO/BOM has better things to do?

    Solving problems. “We ask, we seek, we solve. We are CSIRO.” No, it is a very great waste of money at a minimum duplicating the work of the BOM and many groups overseas. It must be frustrating for management and staff to be researching something which is not happening and holding on for retirement on that great 14% super. The CSIRO must be a living death for once ambitious scientists. Just getting older but at least there is morning tea.

    Incidentally I note on the boastful CSIRO web site they claim to have invented WiFi. “CSIRO invented the world’s best wireless technology for our homes and offices, known as WiFi.” No they didn’t. With a staff of only 5,000 they have also helped 500,000 Australians lose weight. Next our own moon landing. Keystone cops.

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  • #
    Rocky

    Cup hands
    One set of fingers over the other [dont intertwine]
    Hold Cupped Palms over eyes for 10 mins
    Feel warmth
    Blink after and …

    40

  • #
    handjive

    Weather is now Climate:

    As Gavin Schmidt, head of NASA GISS, put it on Twitter today: “Normally I don’t comment on individual months (too much weather, not enough climate), but last month was special.”

    NASA – What’s the Difference Between Weather and Climate?
    Feb. 1, 2005

    “The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time.
    Weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climate is how the atmosphere “behaves” over relatively long periods of time.”
    . . .
    The wheels on the bus go thump, thump, thump.

    82

  • #
    sillyfilly

    interesting comments of the Notch:
    “The required notch filter itself is the key disease showing that the particular solar model is almost certainly incorrect”
    “I think that many of you will agree that the marketing point used as the title on Jo’s blog
    For the first time – a mysterious notch filter found in the climate
    is pure demagogy. What the near-vanishing of R~(f)R~(f) for 1/f1/f close to 11 years really means is that the most obvious possible proof of the direct effect of the total solar irradiance doesn’t exist – the 11-year cycle isn’t present in the temperature data. This is a problem – potentially a huge problem – for any theory that tries to present the solar output as the primary driver even at the decadal scale and faster scales. It’s surely nothing to boast about. It makes the solar theory of the climate much less likely, not more likely. Suggesting otherwise is a case of demagogy.”

    “David is making lots of other claims that go beyond the simple model of the response function. For example, the warming between the late 1970s and late 1990s is explained by “his theory”, too. I don’t see any evidence for that at all. The warming is predicted if the response function and the delay is appropriately fine-tuned so that the prediction appears. But this is not an explanation. It’s just a replacement of one fact by another, equivalent fact in an unnatural parameterization of the same variables. There should exist a simplified explanation why such a solar model produced warming since the late 1970s and I don’t think that he has one.”
    Motl Reference frame
    Makes you wonder? And the cruelty of such rejection must be hard to take.

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    • #

      SillyFilly? Apparently you are so afraid David’s work might be correct you’re dredging.

      Thanks for the opportunity to remind everyone of our reply to Lubos where David explains Lubos’ six mistakes and misunderstandings. Lubos took down the post, so we published a copy, and told him to republish his. He made claims about my emails that were incorrect so I published my emails to him in full so people can judge for themselves.

      I asked Lubos to correct his errors and apologize. He’s a smart guy who had a bad day. He simply hadn’t read through David’s theory well enough to critize it.

      251

      • #
        AndyG55

        Hammered ! :-)

        112

      • #
        PeterPetrum

        So there, SF!

        71

      • #
        sillyfilly

        ““Force X has ten to twenty times more influence on temperatures on Earth than changes in the direct heating effect of TSI.” “While the effects on temperature of the tiny changes in the immediate heating effects of TSI are too small to explain the recent global warming, those tiny changes are a leading indicator of force X.”

        One can only laugh at such implausibility when the scientifically correct evaluation is GHG warming!

        [Scientifically correct??? Don't you mean politically correct?] AZ

        16

        • #
          AndyG55

          Whoops , nearly gave a thumbs up for AZ’s comment, rather than SF’s dopey-donkey comment !!

          00

    • #
      Wayne Job

      Silly, Please explain to us here why when the sun had a few almost spotless cycles in a row history tells us there were ice fairs on the thames.
      Apparently in your world the L.I.A. never happened. It was the sun.

      51

    • #
      The Backslider

      Hey Sillyfilly. How about you take down Svensmark?

      I know that you, nor anybody else, can.

      I think that David is just looking at the wrong thing.

      20

      • #
        The Backslider

        To clarify. I have not read much of what David has written, but from what I have it appeared that he was concentrating on TSI rather than sun spots.

        10

        • #
          Mike

          Forget funding for astrophysicists…….. instead there should be more funding for economic climate scientists.. ……….economic climate scientist’s could put sensors on wall street high frequency trading computers and even satelights to measure oil output activity instead of “sun spot activity” and even measure “activity” from oil rigs directly and eventually on exhaust pipes and smart meters in real time. Support an Economic Climate Scientist today!!!!

          10

          • #
            Mike

            Economic activity causes CO2 emissions and thus precedes/is a precursor of CO2 emissions and is anthropogenic in origin. Economic activity can even be used to predict solar sunspot activity, some economic climate scientists like myself say!

            10

    • #
      Ruairi

      Eleven years simply won’t do,
      Which magnetically needs twenty two,
      As two cycles together,
      Does effect global weather,
      Giving good correlation; it’s true.

      30

      • #
        Mike

        Economic Climate Science is King
        It can measure Gross Domestic CO2 Product (GDCO2P) with somthing that goes ‘Bing!!;.
        Even sunspots do follow
        Anthropogenic economic activity, tomorrow
        Seek Economic Climate Science, that is the thing!

        20

      • #

        happy St Patrick’s day

        20

        • #
          Annie

          The same to you GA.

          This day, in 2003, we were able to eat lunch outside. We sat in a sheltered spot in Gloucestershire and I found later that I had sunburn! That year it was a hot summer in England and my other half told me to stop moaning that I hadn’t returned to England to suffer Australian-type summers! Happily, the following ones were more normal.

          10

          • #
            Gee Aye

            Ah sunburn on Spd must be some sort of honour. Call the red skin Robbie Burns!

            I climbed Croag Patrick many a Spd many years ago carrying 1/8 Irish in my genes and 1/4 triple distilled in my arteries. Plus a good breakfast of Achill white pudding but that doesn’t fit the narrative quite so well

            20

          • #
            Gee Aye

            Ah sunburn on Spd must be some sort of honour. Call it the red skin Robbie Burns!

            I climbed Croag Patrick many a Spd many years ago carrying 1/8 Irish in my genes and 1/4 triple distilled in my arteries. Plus a good breakfast of Achill white pudding but that doesn’t fit the narrative quite so well

            20

            • #
              Gee Aye

              Ok I have an explanation for this. Stopping the page refresh, maybe to correct a last minute typo, while sending and then editing but in reality the original gos through anyway. On the bright side ummm… Nothing

              20

              • #
                Annie

                That’s funny!However, I don’t have the red Celtic skin type despite some ancestry in that direction.

                10

      • #
        sillyfilly

        Force X is out there, though none can see,
        With a filtered notch of some degree.
        A cooling world is the thought,
        From the sort of science (?) deemed severely fraught.

        So back to basics one might say,
        A warming planet where GHGs hold sway.
        Physics thus must be the guiding source
        Not the nonsense of some pseudo force.

        11

        • #

          And X-Rays are quite imaginary
          to a mind so blind it cannot see.

          Basic Physics, yes, we’ve got it right
          It’s water vapor that emits the light

          The energy that CO2 stops
          just finds another path eh pops?

          21

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    • #
      AndyG55

      Yes down a bit this year in Australia, but worldwide there is an oversupply, and prices are low.

      SO DON’T WORRY ABOUT THE BEER SUPPLY !!! :-)

      50

      • #
        Mike

        The beer supply shortage could deliver a blow.
        To the Australia that we presently know.
        Just consult an economic climate scientist tomorrow.
        Then, with a good credit rating, go to the bank to borrow
        And the beer supply problem will then outwardly never show.

        00

  • #
    Dennis

    No rain for twenty one days the television news presenter commented yesterday, and now here on the mid north coast of New South Wales we have had rain ever since. Sydney received it earlier yesterday.

    As for the twenty one days, are we supposed to have forgotten the storms of recent times?

    52

    • #
      bobl

      Every year between June and August I get bugger all rain, since we are on tanks I plan for it every year. That’s around 90 days, and someone is moaning about just 21 days of good, fine weather. Now it seems we whinge when the weather is good as well as when it’s bad. You know, frankly, I think the greenies just like to whinge – full stop. It doesn’t matter what it’s about.

      121

      • #
        Dennis

        It’s the ages old propaganda brain washing, the more too many gullible people are told something the more likely they will believe it. I think the technique was invented by tribal witch doctors.

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  • #
    David Maddison

    THIS TALK WHICH I MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ARTICLE IS NOW ONLINE.

    Richard on Weekend Unthreaded mentioned this.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poi8YLUIgVs

    Can Humans Cause Global Warming with CO2-Emissions From the Burning of Fossil Fuels?

    The lecture will present some basic facts concerning CO2 and its properties, discuss the residence time in the atmosphere of human emissions and why it has no measurable effect on the climate. The lecture will also explain the 30% increase of CO2 during the last century and why it is not human caused and will finalize the lecture by explaining what is causing the climate changes and what the climate will be in the future.

    61

  • #
    Analitik

    OT but for RobertO to comment further on

    Hydro Tasmania exceeded safe power transmission levels, Basslink says

    According to this article, Hydro Tasmania damaged the cable by exporting power in excess of the long term capacity so they brought the current mess upon themselves

    http://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/hydro-tasmania-exceeded-safe-power-transmission-levels-basslink-says/news-story/604185bf8d24057f82bbf56f94a0db93

    50

    • #
      David Maddison

      You’d think there would be some automatic mechanism to stop this sort of damage from happening.

      40

      • #
        ROM

        There was an agreement between Tasmanian Hydro and Basslink to limit the power being run through the cable to prevent “frying the cable” was the terminology used by one spokesperson.

        Tasmanian Hydro apparently failed or refused to stick to the agreed upper limit of power being run through the cable to the mainland and repeatedly exceeded the agreed limit so as to rake in the money from the carbon credit fraud.

        So if “The Australian” this morning [16 Mar ] is correct its the Tasmanian Hydro who might be held responsible and be liable for multi millions if the fault or worse, a large section of the cable simply failed because it was not designed to and could not carry the load that Tasmanian Hydro was trying to force down it to the mainland and so the cable simply failed under the heat load.

        In short it might be a case of the Tassie government / Hydro greed resulted directly in damaging and / or destroying a good section of the cable by frying it.

        To complicate matters, a main communication cable was laid along with the Basslink power cable.

        This communication cable has also failed and so Tasmania is only just managing to get by in communications with very reduced speeds down another limited capacity cable elsewhere in Bass Strait.

        70

        • #
          KinkyKeith

          I just love it when the general public becomes involved with the reality of the unscientific, uncaring politics of CAGW and its consequences.

          KK

          10

    • #

      I don’t think anybody would disagree that Hydro Tas. brought its problems upon itself by running the dams so low, but as to damage to the BassLink cable I think the jury is out and we will not have an answer until the fault is both found and repaired, perhaps in May sometime. There seems to be commentry about the very low rainfall and low inflow into the dams, but in the catchment areas on the west coast normal rainfall was experienced. The Great Lake, which feeds the Poatina station, is in a lower rainfall zone and has a limited catchment. Roughly, the annual rainfall at the northern end is 55 inches (Breona) and about 28 inches at the southern end (Miena), a distance of about 30 miles. You can convert this to metric. Apparently the wall of the 1918 dam is above the water level and Arthurs Lake nearly empty; this lake is pumped into the Gt. Lake.
      Apparently there has been some comment by the Hydro CEO that they can’t use the bottom 10% of the lakes due to operational problems (damage to turbines with increased sendiment?). If this is true then they have even less reserves than the 15% quoted. It’s a mess which is most likely to be self inflicted, but look at the costs, diesel generators, repairs to Basslink, loss to industry by reduced outputs to think of a few.

      40

      • #

        Just for interest’s sake I have seen a photograph of work on the first Miena dam, circa 1914-18. The lake was frozen and they were sledding materials across the ice; might happen again this Winter with the lake so low and one could do some cross country ice skating!

        40

      • #
        Rod Stuart

        Some of HT’s power stations operate on rather low head.
        In that situation, the head at the lower end of the penstock suffers somewhat when a full reservoir is compared to the same reservoir at 10%.
        Lower head; more flow for the same output. Not a huge difference, but it does exacerbate the situation.

        00

    • #
      Analitik

      Wow – the recent news is not good at all for our southernmost state!

      Tasmania energy crisis: State facing worst-case scenario as dam levels continue to deteriorate

      Tasmania energy crisis: Basslink still unsure where cable fault is, facing ‘phenomenal’ repair costs

      Tasmania’s Power Shortage Reaches Crisis Levels

      Basslink mulls exit from telecomms business – Cable ship costs are staggering

      Tas govt promises lights will stay on

      There’s also a paywalled article by The Australian titled “Fighting to keep Tasmania’s lights on in energy crisis” that I was briefly able to view which stated the diesel gensets that were recently installed have now commenced operation.

      And a fascinating statement I only just found on the Hydro Tasmania site under a So what does Hydro have to do with Basslink?
      heading states

      Through Basslink Hydro Tasmania has the opportunity to sell our renewable energy in further reaches than Tasmania.

      No mention at all about importing from Victoria when needed (there is a small mention of buying power in the section above about the history of Basslink). I guess that’s why Hydro Tas were able to assure Energy Minister Matthew Groom in writing (he explicitly requested it, according to The Australian article) that the Tamar Valley CCGT wasn’t needed whilst they (Hydro Tas) were lobbying for the right to sell it.

      10

      • #
        Mike

        It is to be expected. Massive deforestation destroys the sponges, also known as forests floors which usually account for feeding water to healthy rivers in summer.

        Peter Andrews did a great practical study of the effects of vegetation on rivers and covered by Australian Story.

        Re-Hydrating the Landscape
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFV9J9pwjgc&list=PLE-d88mKVNvCLWK0_m46vHoQGXfT5T-S4&index=3

        00

        • #
          Mike

          I forgot a point of my own….

          Deforestation causes erosion and erosion fills dams up something chronic with….silt. Silt displaces water and the dam is no longer at full capacity for water. Instead, the dam is full of silt.

          Thanks

          Mike//

          00

      • #

        The people in Hobart thought they were going to make a fortune by selling peak hydro electricity to the National grid at top dollar and buying back off peak electricity from the Yallourn coal stations. That was always the concept, but it has turned out to be a lifeboat somewhat.

        Apart from the obvious consequences of running the dams too low (and blaming the weather) it really hasn’t done any good to their clean green image!

        00

        • #
          Rod Stuart

          The people in Hobart thought they were going to make a fortune by selling peak hydro electricity to the National grid at top dollar and buying back off peak electricity from the Yallourn coal stations.

          I can vouch for that.
          At the Grand Opening of TVPS in 2009 I was seated opposite one of the Treasury officials at the dinner held at Ninth Island.
          He remarked that TVPS would be a boon for the Tasmanian economy because we could now import inexpensive gas energy from the mainland, transform it to electrical energy, and sell that energy back to the mainland at a considerable profit.
          I responded that if that it sounded a lot like a plan that Baldrick of Blackadder fame might dream up. “If it works, you should consider importing wheat from Winnipeg, milling it into flour, and selling it in Toronto.”
          There was no response.

          10

  • #
    RB

    Mongolia is in the grip of a Dzud – a very cold winter.

    But this winter must be due to global warming because the map shows that its 0.5 -4°C warmer than normal.

    Maybe Dzud means a normal winter and the reporter got mixed up.

    40

    • #
      AndyG55

      Mongolia is just to the right of the “slightly warmer winter” zone. (dark red.)

      Kamchatka looks like it might a tad chilly, though.

      40

      • #
        RB

        For those a bit stuck, here is a map. North of Indochina peninsula about equal with the northern part of Japan (a little north of NKorea) so light red and orange, and 1-4°C) more than the average from 1951-80. That period must have killed every cow in the country!

        30

  • #
    ROM

    Could the promoters of the Catastrophic Global Warming also known as “Climate Change” that visit “Jo’s” blog such as Silly Filly, Frank and an array of shadowy and apparently shady red thumbers as they don’t seem to want to have their identities made public as well as and including media reporters and Editors please take the time to outline here on Jo’s blog what each of you are each doing personally as well as what those of your ideological beliefs are currently doing to reduce the possibility / probability of what YOU claim to be future catastrophe for the global climate.

    Putting up your hands in a Greens meeting vote to support some illogical and never to be implemented resolution to ban coal or gas or to only have renewable wind and solar energy doesn’t count at all as an actual real personal contribution to reducing what you believe is the probability of a major climate disaster in a future which only you and your fellow believers seem to able to predict.

    We skeptics need to see your personal and group commitment through examples of your real and actual personal contribution to reducing the chances of a future catastrophic climate change that you are so definite about to actually believe you really do mean what you claim to believe and have the personal cojones to do something personally substantial about the coming climate catastrophe you are so vocal about .

    Failure to outline what you are actually doing personally to reduce the chances of catastrophic climate change will reinforce what many of us skeptics believe about the believers of the climate catastrophe ideology;

    1 / You don’t really believe in the climate catastrophe ideology you are so vocal and fanatical about as you haven’t done anything at all personally or given up any significant and substantial part of your needs to help to mitigate the coming climate catastrophe you believe so seriously in or claim to believe in.

    2 / From the above 1/ you are nothing more then than just plain hypocrites in that you are failing in every way to practice what you preach eg; Al Gore.

    3 / You haven’t really got a clue about anything to do with climate science so you are believing from a stance that is based entirely on your own ignorance of the actual way in which the global climate works.

    4 / From that you aren’t smart enough or dedicated enough to trying to find the real truth by actually going and do some good investigation into the science behind the claims of a climate catastrophe as well as the science behind the skeptiscm about such a future climate catastrophe .

    5 / From 3 / and 4/ above all your utterances and constant vitriolic and vituperative outpourings against skeptics is nothing more than the outpourings of a fixated, narrow and inflexible mentality that through complete lack of any understanding of the complexities of the global climate and your complete inability due to a rigid fixated mentality to accept that somebody who disagrees with your beliefs might just be right and you might just be plain wrong.

    5 / Assuming all of the above points and if NO evidence is posted by the believers on Jo’s blog as to what they, thats each and everyone of them as well as those shady, shadowy red thumbers are doing to personally to mitigate the oncoming climate catastrophe they believe in then I can only assume that you are blowing large volumes of pink fluorescent smoke through the lower orifices in all your utterances and hate speech against anybody who dares to disagree with your own entirely personal beliefs.
    .

    So to ensure that what I have written above is incorrect and maybe just plain wrong in some believer’s cases, could those who believe in a future climate catastrophe ideology as well as those shadowy, shady red thumbers please place on the record here for all to see, what they themselves as well as their groups of fellow believers are doing personally to actually and meaningfully reduce the chances of a climate catastrophe and what they are giving up in life style and hard practical realities to reduce the chances of the aforesaid climate catastrophe they apparently so firmly believe in.

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    • #

      ROM,

      well said! Everyone needs to read what ROM writes here, ….. all of it, but most especially this.

      Putting up your hands in a Greens meeting vote to support some illogical and never to be implemented resolution to ban coal or gas or to only have renewable wind and solar energy doesn’t count at all as an actual real personal contribution to reducing what you believe is the probability of a major climate disaster in a future which only you and your fellow believers seem to able to predict.

      What you need to do to show that you’re doing something is not to nod your head in agreement, but to bl00dy well do something.

      Perhaps you could start by actually doing some research into what coal fired power actually provides, and from that, some research into how your renewables of choice cannot even begin to hope to provide that same regularity of power provision. You’ll soon find out something that might just cause you to doubt your belief. It’s no good just agreeing with what you hear. Actually go and find out.

      Then, if you’re so d@mned certain, then actually do something to get those people in power to close down those power plants you disagree with.

      What might help here with your belief structure is that for almost ten years now, ….. EVERYONE has been saying how totally and utterly bad Hazelwood power plant is, how it’s the dirtiest CO2 emitting plant on Planet earth, and yet, in ten bl00dy years, no one in a position of political power has even suggested that the plant will be closed, other than The Greens, who can say whatever they like because it doesn’t count. The fact that Hazelwood, as bad as you say it is, has not closed should tell you something, and scream it out loud, that there’s nothing they can replace it with to provide the same levels of power on the same basis of reliability and regularity of supply, and they know that if they do close it down, it will be the last political decision they ever get to make.

      As ROM suggests here, don’t just put your hand up and nod in agreement. DO SOMETHING.

      Tony.

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      • #
        AndyG55

        The obvious thing to do is to UPGRADE Hazelwood to the newest and best HELE systems.

        There would be a big reduction in both real pollution and in CO2 output, so obviously there should be climate trough money set aside to do this upgrade.

        50

        • #
          Analitik

          I’m not sure if the HELE technologies will make much difference to the CO2 output of a plant like Hazelwood due to the extremely high water content of the Latrobe Valley brown coal.

          But Greens have been doing something – they have been pushing for more renewables to be subsidised so that Hazelwood can be made redundant and retired. Then the flowers will bloom, the birds will sing, the seas will stop rising….

          60

          • #
            AndyG55

            Germany uses brown coal.. there are methods of using waste heat to dry out the coal before use.

            Anyway.. Its not the CO2 that matters, more the merrier as far as I’m concerned. :-)

            But we should be upgrading to try to bring down the amount of any real pollution.

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            • #
              Analitik

              Our brown coal is wetter than their lignite so the scale of the problem is proportionally greater. It would require substantial investment but who’s going to fund it in today’s political climate?

              http://www.worldcoal.com/power/21012014/Nigel_Dong_the_history_and_types_of_coal_drying_technologies_in_Europe_power01A/

              I remember a lecturer describing a coal plant in Sweden where they turned their black coal into a slurry so it would flow into the boilers (this was obviously pre any notion of CAGW). He was astounded by how this “liquid” still had a lower water content than Latrobe Valley brown coal.

              http://www.minerals.org.au/file_upload/files/resources/victoria/minerals_fact_sheets/Minerals_-_Fact_Sheets_-_Brown_Coal_-_Lignite.pdf

              30

              • #

                Analitik,

                I’ve posted this link a few times here, but hey, that’s not my being repetitive, as new readers are coming here all the time, so it’s worth pointing it out again.

                The link is to an 8 page pdf document, and it’s well worth the time to read it all.

                It’s for the Neurath coal fired plant in Germany, two units, each running an 1100MW generator, a new tech USC plant, fuelled by brown coal, and adapted to dry the crushed coal prior to injection into the furnace/boiler.

                The technology was actually developed by these people, and if you read all the text (well worth it) you’ll see that Hazelwood actually gets a mention down on page 7, with plans to retrofit Hazelwood with the technology, and I guess that certain political forces decided that coal fired power of any technology was not worth pursuing, (politically) as this possibility died a death before even getting any coverage, more’s the pity.

                However, the technology is now there for USC to be utilised for brown coal consumption as well as for black coal consumption.

                Link to Neurath F & G (pdf document of 8 pages)

                Some great schematic diagrams are shown at the linked document as well.

                Tony.

                80

              • #
                TdeF

                All coal is roughly the same stuff. A company in Bacchus Marsh, Victoria was working with a unit at Monash University to perfect the technology to dry brown coal and so decrease the 50% loss of energy from having to evaporate the water, halving the CO2 per kw. The Age newspaper ran it as a front line story that they were going to make the coal ‘blacker’. Disaster. So the Labor government canned it. You cannot have black coal as it is obviously dirtier.

                I guess diamond being pure carbon would be the dirtiest mineral. Science is a lost cause in Victoria.

                81

              • #
                ianl8888

                @TdeF


                All coal is roughly the same stuff

                Nope, not even close. I’ve done a few comments here on various coal qualities related to maceral contents but it’s quite obvious not a lot of people bother with such facts.

                And R&D attempts to improve the efficacy of LaTrobe lignites have been ongoing for many, many decades – with some good results in the design of the more modern power plants there. For example, a German organisation expert in the Fischer-Tropsch process for hydrogenating brown coal to liquid hydrocarbons has been investigating for over a decade now (I know this because I was then part of a small team who provided the geology/engineering report for them).

                90

              • #
                Analitik

                Interesting to see what 2.2 billion euros will get you. The coal drying isn’t actually all that different to the integrated mill technique used at Hazelwood (and the vast majority of other lignite/brown coal plants). The high efficiency appears to be mainly due to the high pressure steam and waste heat recovery for preheating. The cooling tower design probably couldn’t be used for Hazelwood, however, it requires as the discarding of cooling water to limit salt concentration (Hazelwood uses static pondage) so some efficiency would be lost from this. Also, the water content of the lignite is not mentioned – Hazelwood’s brown coal approaches 70%.

                As for drying coal, have a look at this 2014 study which investigates the some modern coal drying plants compared to the traditional integrated mill drying method where the moisture ends up going through the boiler. Let’s ignore the CCS portions since it ain’t gonna happen.

                In this study, Loy Yang A is mentioned as a case study for a the effects of US coal drying technology. The thing to note is the daily coal consumption – 60,000 tonnes. Hazelwood is about 3/4 the capacity of Loy Yang A but is older and less efficient (28% vs 31%) so it probably consumes around 50,000 tonnes a day.

                The WTA plant mentioned in the study has a capacity of 210 tonnes per hour (drying down to 110 tonnes of dry lignite) so 10 would be needed for Hazelwood. At 50 million euros each, that is A$750 million in drying plants for a possible 4% efficiency gain

                https://www.usea.org/sites/default/files/082014_Techno-economics%20of%20modern%20pre-drying%20technologies%20for%20lignite-fired%20power%20plants_ccc241.pdf

                Basically, I think replacing Hazelwood with more Loy Yang A or B units would be good enough

                30

              • #
                TdeF

                Of course coals are very different. Similar stuff is heat of combustion of the similar hydrocarbons across all coal types, CH and CH2 which form the bulk of the coal after moisture. If you calculate the energy content of different types of coal after removing moisture, they are much more similar in heat content.

                The Green argument against brown coal revolves around this moisture removal but spins to make out the brown coal is ‘dirtier’, so they want Hazelwood closed as CO2/kw is much higher than black coal. The pollution they argue is CO2, not particulate matter, sulphur, ash, H2O or anything else. Dirty means solely CO2.

                40

              • #
                TdeF

                This may be it.. The patented Coldry Process, a low cost process that dewaters brown coal in a mechanically simple and economic way.

                Environmental Clean Technologies Limited (ECT) is an Australia-based company. The Company, through Coldry process is in the process of dewatering brown coal to produce a black coal substitute. Coldry process produces pellets that can be stored, transported and is of equal energy value than black coal. Coldry works by initiating a chemical reaction to expel water from lignite and sub-bituminous coal. The pellets are used in electricity generation in black or brown coal power stations and coal-to-oil applications.

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              • #
                TdeF

                So my other important point is that if we could reduce the moisture before burning, we could double Victoria’s coal reserves, plus halving even the cost of digging, transporting, burning. This does mean our coal would be blacker but this development was stopped by Victorian Labor government intervention because, as the Age trumpeted, it made coal ‘blacker’.

                In my view it is utterly irresponsible to not remove the moisture if it can be done more cheaply. Perversely this would please the Green lobby as the CO2/kg would drop, making Hazelwood a ‘cleaner’ plant instead of the nation’s ‘dirtiest’.

                Once again Green ignorance trumped real science where Victorians should be world pioneers in maximizing the use of our huge brown coal reserves, which incidentally are also powering Green states Tasmania and South Australia as they have become so painfully aware.

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              • #
                AndyG55

                “are also powering Green states Tasmania”

                Not at the moment it isn’t .

                BassLink is still down.

                40

              • #
                Analitik

                TdeF, we should see how well the Coldry process scales in June when the pilot plant with NLC in India starts operation.

                http://www.miningweekly.com/article/indias-nlc-to-try-pilot-steel-plant-using-australian-technology-2016-01-29

                They are trialling Coldry with the Matmor process (where the lignite is compressed with iron ore and flux to produce a combined iron refining briquette) rather than the pure lignite drying process but it should still give an idea of the plant size/cost/output. That they are focussing on steel rather than electricity production with their lignite should tell us something, given the acute shortage of electricity in India.

                http://www.ectltd.com.au/matmor/the-matmor-process/
                http://www.ectltd.com.au/coldry/the-coldry-process/

                Anton always stresses the math in his posts to separate fanciful concept from realizable processes and this is where Coldry is currently unproven since their demonstration used gas heaters to produce relatively small numbers of briquettes. The sheer scale of coal consumption in the Latrobe Valley power plants needs to be seen to be fully appreciated. Of course, all that money thrown away by the CSIRO on climate studies could well have been used to fully investigate the feasibility of Coldry and other brown coal value addition projects

                http://www.bcinnovation.com.au/CurrentProjects
                http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/brown-coal-in-the-dock–where-to-for-victoria-now-20151118-gl2492.html

                The drying processes described in the article that I linked previously all have had fully operational demonstration or deployed plants.

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              • #
                TdeF

                So the Indians are experimenting with Coldry, because they see it has advantages. We were stopped from doing so in Victoria.
                The Indians are building a Thorium nuclear reactor, not Australia. We are building nothing nuclear.
                Does anyone spot a pattern? Do you ever wonder what 5,000 CSIRO scientists are doing when they are not inventing WiFI?

                10

              • #
                TdeF

                “reducing moisture content to between 10 and 14 per cent; boosting calorific value over 5200 kcal/kg; and creating a new ‘densified coal’ product that is hydrophobic, no longer prone to spontaneous combustion, readily transportable and from a commercial and environmental point of view, a black coal equivalent.”

                It is to be noted that all this came from a private observation and University of Melbourne Chemistry department in 1980 and then private investment and development over twenty five years and now a publicly listed company. Governments are only good at stopping things. As for Government Science, that is a contradiction. Failure is accepted as normal, something unacceptable in private industry. We can only hope the CSIRO can fix Climate Change for us. We want results.

                10

              • #
                Analitik

                TdeF, please restrain yourself, lest you start resembling renewables advocates when they rail against the grid and question why widespread battery and PV deployment wasn’t implemented “years ago”

                The Advanced Lignite Demonstration Program Prospectus was released by the Victoria government back in January 2014 (maybe earlier) and I would assume that ECTL submitted and EOI for funding Coldry. That it wasn’t chosen to be one of the projects for demonstration plants may warrant some investigation but see my previous comment about the Indian trial being for iron refining rather than electrical production.

                http://www.energyandresources.vic.gov.au/energy/innovation-and-research/energy-technology-innovation/advanced-lignite-demonstration-program/aldp-prospectus
                http://minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/macfarlane/media-releases/advanced-coal-projects-drive-new-jobs

                10

        • #
          Analitik

          I should have added this link to my previous post (editing would be so nice)

          http://environmentvictoria.org.au/index.php?q=content/why-o-why-hazelwood-still-operating

          20

          • #
            TdeF

            Hazelwood is still going because it is powering the Green states who do not want dirty CO2 in their backyard. At least that is when the cables are working and each has failed this year.

            00

      • #
        Robber

        Tony, I’m sure that the following will be of interest.
        Utilities Warn of Rising Pressure on Electricity Reliability and Prices, Accenture Reports
        Storage could create more disruption or provide a solution to sustainable and cost-effective electricity
        MADRID–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Almost half (45 percent) of utilities industry executives surveyed by Accenture (NYSE:ACN) worldwide, and 64 percent in Europe, reported that the traditional electricity distribution model is no longer fit-for-purpose. Unless the industry undergoes a digital, regulatory and business model transformation, utilities warn of increasing pressure on supply reliability and prices, according to Accenture’s Digitally Enabled Grid research, now in its third edition.
        This Smart News Release features multimedia. View the full release here: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160316005115/en/

        The proliferation of distributed generation has been a key challenge for utilities. Accenture’s survey of 85 industry executives across 18 countries found that more than half (56 percent) expect grid faults to increase by 2020 as a result of distributed renewable generation, such as residential solar photovoltaics (PV).

        Complementing the survey, Accenture conducted economic modelling to assess the potential impact of growing electricity storage on the grid network. It showed that the falling price of storage could strengthen the economics of residential PV deployment in places like Germany, where the price for selling renewable generation back to the grid is lower than the retail price, or places like California where the utility charges a premium for electricity consumption during periods of peak demand.

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  • #
    Ed

    Guys,
    Enough with the waffle already. If you believe cooling is ahead put your money where your mouth is and trade/hedge the food price increase ahead.
    Article in ZH indicates a clear trend showing food prices increase with global cooling.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-15/global-warming-and-food-prices

    [This Ed is not this ED] ED

    20

  • #
    dp

    A long term trend is not affected by a cyclic impulse everyone knew was coming. It is like a rogue wave in a tidal chart – interesting, not understood, and impotent. The trend is yet to be shown to have ended.

    41

  • #
    pat

    u want HYPERBOLE? Eric Worrall has a thread on WUWT right now -

    5 Mar: WUWT: Eric Worrall: Japan Plans to meet Paris Commitments, by Building Coal Plants
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/15/japan-plans-to-meet-paris-commitments-by-building-coal-plants/comment-page-1/#comment-2167109

    I started by posting stuff like -

    15 Mar: Reuters: India’s Adani gets Queensland backing for Australian coal project
    Parliament in the Australian state of Queensland agreed on Tuesday that India’s Adani Enterprises Ltd should be granted “all state government approvals” to build one of the world’s biggest coal mines, state mining minister Anthony Lynham said…

    but continued with load of links, such as:

    Delingpole’s “UK Energy Minister: ‘Britain Must Commit Zero Carbon Suicide’”

    then came across tons of Al Gore stuff that has to be read to NOT be believed!

    BTW, AL GORE AND HIS CLIMATE REALITY PROJECT PRESIDENT/CEO, KEN BERLIN, ARE IN THE PHILIPPINES, EXPLOITING THE COUNTRY’S RELIGIOUS NATURE, TALKING OF MORALS, THE BIBLE, EXAGGERATING EVERY WEATHER EVENT, TRAINING MORE CLIMATE WARRIORS, & EVEN SUGGESTING THEY’LL HELP WRITE THE PHILIPPINES’ CLIMATE LAWS! MEANWHILE, THE PHILIPPINES IS BUILDING 24 MORE COAL PLANTS.

    RATHER THAN POST ALL THE STUFF HERE AND INTERRUPTING THIS THREAD, I SUGGEST THOSE INTERESTED CHECK IT OUT AT THE WUWT LINK ABOVE.

    cheers…

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  • #
    Pauly

    The thing that struck me the most washiwmuch ofthe warming was in the artic or northern Russia.

    Out of interest does anybody know how much of that is real data from actual thermometers and how much is infill data?

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    • #
      AndyG55

      It shows up in the satellite data as well.. both RSS and UAH.

      Its real, as the wobbly jet stream sucks up the heat released from the El Nino as the planet tries tom balance itself with the somewhat quiet Sun.

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  • #
    pat

    update:

    16 Mar: MoneyControl: Adani seals final landholder compensation deal for Aus project
    “This agreement, which allows for the inclusion of land within the surface area of the mining lease, represents another important milestone in ensuring the company’s mine, rail and port projects proceed, and another step in Adani’s plans to build a long term future with Queensland,” a spokesperson for Adani said.
    Indian mining giant Adani today took a step forward in realising its 21.7 billion dollars coal mine in Australia by concluding the final landholder compensation agreement, a day after it received the backing of the Queensland’s Parliament for the controversy-hit project…
    Welcoming the news, Queensland Resources Council Chief Executive Michael Roche said: “This is yet another milestone as these important projects continue to progress. And as the QRC has regularly stated, these important economic opportunities benefit all Queenslanders, not just those in the regions”…
    http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/adani-seals-final-landholder-compensation-deal-for-aus-project_5894961.html

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  • #
    pat

    hilarious…as soon as I saw the headline, it was clear this was more spruiking for CSIRO:

    16 Mar: ABC Tasmanian Country Hour: Sally Dakis: Climate science still to answer the frost ‘enigma’
    Agricultural consultant Dr Steve Wilson is cautioning against cuts to the CSIRO as big questions about climate change and agriculture remain unanswered.
    Dr Wilson is a former lecturer in Agricultural Science at the University of Tasmania and now consults in the field of micro-climate and frost management.
    He made the comments in the light of a Senate inquiry examining plans by the CSIRO to cut up to 350 jobs, around 110 of them in climate research…
    Tasmania’s capacity to manage a changing climate was significantly enhanced by the Climate Futures for Tasmania Project, run by the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC.
    The project was based on modelling by the CSIRO.
    Dr Wilson said while it used the best modelling available at the time, it was not perfect, and the models needed updating in the light of the record-breaking dry year…
    “Usually with any modelling, the models evolve over time, they get better and better, they become more precise.
    “In this case we knew there were some deficiencies in the model when we ran it, it was the best we could do at the time.
    ***”Sometime around now, we could do a lot better,” he said…
    “Putting it really crudely, some more modelling might help a lot.”
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-16/climate-change-frost-csiro-question-unanswered/7247030

    ***it does make u laugh.

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    • #
      TdeF

      It’s pathetic really. Warming, so fewer frosts but more severe frosts as there are more extreme events. Please give more money for computer modelling. Plus the Tasmanian drought is responsible for the lack of water in the dams, not the carbon tax and greed. These are the talking points every CSIRO spokesman must push in every forum. Reality is irrelevant. Political science, so different to real science.

      Sell the CSIRO and the ABC/SBS. They know no one would buy them. Public service science, public service neews, like a public service help desk. God helps those who help themselves but God help those caught helping themselves.

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  • #
    pat

    16 Mar: Guardian: Mark Dreyfus: Why Malcolm Turnbull should reverse the destructive, clumsy and dumb CSIRO cuts
    The gutting of climate science expertise in one of the world’s premier research organisations is not clever, innovative, or agile. It is destructive, clumsy and dumb
    I’ll be hosting a community forum on the importance of CSIRO’s Aspendale Centre on 22 March, and it was not hard to convince the former chief scientist of Australia Ian Chubb and climate change expert Will
    Steffen to come along, such is the depth of respect for its work in the scientific community…
    If Mr Turnbull was a bold and decisive leader, he would reverse the cuts to CSIRO now and save Australia’s climate research capacity and reputation for quality science.
    Or is he too frightened of the right-wing, climate-sceptic opponents in his own party to do anything?
    He needs to make a decision now – not dither until the axe falls
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/16/why-malcolm-turnbull-should-reverse-the-destructive-clumsy-and-dumb-csiro-cuts

    14 Mar: ABC Q&A Transcript: String Theory, Sea Turtles, AI and Pi
    CSIRO CUTS: BLAH BLAH…
    CLIMATE SCIENCE CUTS…
    TONY JONES: Emma, I’ll bring you back in here because the climate change cuts we’re referring now to 350 staff from CSIRO, who have also lost their jobs, climate change researchers.
    EMMA JOHNSTON (marine biologist UNSW): Yes, it’s very difficult. We’ve just had some astounding news today, in fact, announced that we’ve had one of the in fact, the warmest February on record and it is 1.5 degrees above the average global temperature for the pre industrial era. So this is astounding.
    This is a surprising thing, even to scientists and what I think it emphasises is the need for measurements and modelling beyond what we already have. So we know and the science about how climate change takes place, the way that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases trap heat in the atmosphere, that science has been settled since before most of us went to primary school but what’s still a really active question is how science, how climate change is going to play out on fine scales and what all of the positive and negative feedback loops are and that’s where our measuring and our modelling and our global attempts to integrate measuring and modelling are so crucial…
    TONY JONES (to Alan Finkel)… A 1.35 degree increase in the past month. According to at least one climate scientist I’ve seen quoted, it’s unprecedented. He’s talking about an emergency, a climate emergency. Is it too early to say that?
    ALAN FINKEL (chief scientist): Look, it’s probably too early to say that, but that rise is consistent with the trend so even though it’s one month and it’s almost aberrantly high, you wouldn’t want to dismiss it. There is genuine reason for concern and it’s also consistent with another figure that came out yesterday, which was the measurement from Hawaii of the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
    Not the emissions, but the actual level and they’ve now determined that it’s gone up in 2015 by 3.05 parts per million; just over three parts per million and that turns out to be the largest annual increase since recording began more than 50 years ago. And what that says is that for all the effort that we’re putting into trying to avoid increases of emission, we’re losing. So what we’re doing with solar and with wind and changing practices, behavioural practices and things like that, we’re not winning the battle …
    http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/txt/s4406559.htm

    how about we adapt, Mr. Finkel?

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    • #
      TdeF

      Climate Change expert Will Steffen? He is a chemist not a meteorologist. “Such is the depth of respect for its work in the scientific community”. As the late Robin Williams would say, he would attend a letter opening.

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  • #
    Geoffrey Williams

    These Global Worriers are just too quick to pounce!
    What has it been? – a warm month? – a warm year?
    We all expected this and really it’s not a big deal!
    When warmist tell me this I shall simply quote the great Aristotle;
    ‘For one swallow doth not a summer make, nor does one day; . .

    Regards Geoff W Sydney

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    • #
      tom0mason

      Currently at a location only ‘real climate scientist©™’ know it is the warmest 23 minutes ever recorded for than locality.

      For more about global stupidity just type -
      “Now that’s what I call climate change” into the search engine of your choice.

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  • #
    ianl8888

    Somewhat O/T, but Cassandra suggests:

    http://election.internal.jcole.id.au/

    And it seems probable that Windsor could knock Barnaby off, making it even easier for Lord Waffle.

    Curtain call …

    20

    • #
      Dennis

      I doubt that the majority of New England voters forget that Windsor backed the minority Labor Government alliance in 2010, and that with Oakeshott he was recruited by Labor around 2008 when PM Rudd was the Labor leader. And they know about state independent for Armidale Richard Torbay who is due to appear at the ICAC to answer questions about NSW Labor funding of independents in NSW, former Labor cabinet minister Eddie Obeid alleged to be involved.

      Windsor sold his family farm to Obeid mining interests but still campaigned against coal mining in New England electorate, and he later purchased more property with coal mining prospects.

      This is a snapshot, much more information is available.

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      • #
        ianl8888


        Windsor sold his family farm to Obeid mining interests …

        Absolutely NOT – he sold about half of one of his properties to Whitehaven to allow Werris Creek open cut to continue operation. I have observed the relevant survey lines at the Werris Creek mine. Obeid had absolutely NOTHING to do with it. How does such disinformation as you’ve repeated get around with any credibility ?

        As far as other properties with coal mine prospects go, the entire region is like that. That’s why it’s called the Gunnedah Coal Basin. Many locals, including Windsor, have speculated here. That doesn’t make Windsor any less the absolute hypocrite, but it doesn’t now knock him out of the political race as it did in 2013. I despise him, but the opinion polls say he will be re-elected with Green preferences.

        Sorry Dennis, but that comment you posted confirms my view that people deserve exactly what they get. Hopelessly ill-informed.

        The Shenhua open cut mine is the current hot issue. This has allowed Windsor to come back into contention as Joyce is seen as a senior member of the Govt that approved the operation. Whether that is accurate or fair is irrelevant (so please don’t bother replying on those grounds) – Windsor is campaigning on the putative damage Shenhua is dishonestly projected to do to aquifers as propagandised by the Greens and some farmers who disavow measured geo-hydrology.

        I keep pointing out that the MSM/Green propaganda is now too strong to beat. This is obviously not a message that has any hope of penetration, even though it is realpolitik.

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        • #
          Mike

          It would be at least a little bit astute to observe the coal mining industry (Globally) is suffering economic collapse along with other oil and petro chemical related. I do not tire of making the observation that when economies die, they do not produce as much CO2. But then again, how many AGW economic climate scientists albeit amateur like myself are there amongst you all ?? :)

          The point is…..there is economic blood on the streets, and it affects all emissions. For example, anthropogenic emissions of all kinds are crushed when subjected to adverse economic factors such as the ongoing global economic crisis

          This wIlL bE gReAt fOr cuTtinG cO2 eMisSioNs :) :) :)

          Here Is an article hot off the press:

          Largest U.S. Coal Producer Skips Interest Payment, Warns Of Bankruptcy; Stock Crashes

          “One of the more impressive short squeezes in recent history took place in the first two weeks of March, when the stock of distressed Peabody Energy, the largest U.S. coal producer which employs 8,300 workers, exploded higher from just $2.50 per share at the start of the month to a whopping $6.50 just last week.

          ………..”Alas Peabody missed its narrow window to sell stock, and things were promptly normalized this morning, when the stock crashed back to earth plunging by nearly 40% back to $2.50 in the pre-market, wiping out all recent gains, after Peabody announced in its just filed 10-K, reported that it may have to join its peers Arch Coal and Alpha Natural in 11 bankruptcy protection, after it delayed $71 million in interest payment due on March 15.

          So…… It is not the greens or any other who control the life blood of any venture whatsoever, .it is the creditors who decide and make the ultimate decisions, to fund or not to fund, not the politicians.

          That sounds pretty good………..“to fund or not to fund, that is the question” :)

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          • #
            ianl8888

            … sigh

            Funding happens when the fundsters see a good case for return.

            I’ve done many reports for the fundsters, essentially what they call “Fatal Flaw Studies”.

            You’re offering no insight, just more incoherence pretending to be deep.

            Peabody have been in the hole for over 5 years now. Demand for their product has dropped, so prices for their product have dropped below their production costs. No deep, shadowy “fundsters pulling strings” stuff, just simple economics. And of no relevance to Windsor being returned to New England or not.

            I welcome real debate here (there’s so little of it), but juvenile “bankers control the world” stuff ain’t it.

            30

            • #
              Mike

              The naivety of your opinion ….. when dealing with fLat eArTh’ers you cannot submit your work as merely a “Fatal Flaw Study”…….pause…………You need to submit it as an ‘error report’.

              If that does not work, just submit your ‘report’ to the “error hotline” over the phone. I don’t know the number offhand, but you can look it up. :)

              It isn’t the bankers who are at fault here. It was not intended in my comment. My comment goes out to all those economic climate scientists who are not pulling their weight.

              Even an amateur eCoNomIC CliMaTe ScieNtiSt like myself knows that economic phenomena precedes drops, or increases in CO2 in our atmosphere under the CO2 dome our flat earth is under.

              What we need is more funding for economic climate scientists so we can be professional instead of offering our services for free as is currently the case.

              For example, with a little funding, we could put sensors on every oil rig and coal mine and tell you in advance exactly how much oil and coal is being burnt at any time of the day.

              By using a satelite connected to the stock market, we could tell you the gross domestic CO2 product and so on…..

              10

        • #
          Ian George

          Yes, Ian, Windsor did sell to Whitehaven and now leases it back from them. Windsor also had input into the Murray/Darling Basin policy, taking water from NSW (and probably his own electorate) and giving it to SA. Just as well Broken Hill is not in his electorate – the town is suffering because one of the Menindee Lakes was drained.
          I know many Tamworth people who supported Windsor in the day. Many of them were gutted when he chose Labor, mining taxes, MDB, carbon taxes, etc. It will be interesting to see but their memories are very long in the bush.

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        • #
          toorightmate

          Shenhua is a real red hot issue.
          The feasibility study was completed 10 years ago. Shenhua has had strong involvement with the local community for over 10 years.
          So much for any organisation attempting to undertake resource projects in this horribly broken country.
          All you can here now is the cacophony of Sydney and Melbourne resident greens who claim to be saving our country.

          10

          • #
            Dennis

            I read an article recently that emphasised that the coal mine is not on the Liverpool Plains, but nearby.

            Big difference to the claims of too many protestors. And as for coal mining in the hills damaging aquifers, the protest groups need to do more research, and maybe ask the EPA and other government authorities involved in mining approvals?

            00

        • #
          Dennis

          Ian there are many references on line however the following quote from The Land newspaper is indicative of the sale by Tony Windsor of family farm land, and at way above market price at the time of sale;

          As politicians walked the press gallery discussing the previous night’s budget, Mr Windsor and Senator Joyce unexpectedly crossed paths, sparking a brief but fiery exchange.

          Senator Joyce had earlier used parliamentary privilege to try and link the $4.625 million sale of Mr Windsor’s family farming property to Werris Creek Coal, a subsidiary of Whitehaven Coal, and corruption allegations against former NSW Labor Resources Minister Ian Macdonald.

          Relations between the pair are already strained with Senator Joyce challenging for Mr Windsor’s New England seat at the upcoming federal election, in a bid to enter the Lower House.

          …….. there is much more to the story than so far exposed and maybe when former NSW MP Richard Torbay attends the ICAC we will learn more. The tentacles of the Obeid Family extend far and wide.

          10

  • #
    Rodzki

    “Seasonally adjusted”? In what sense does the globe have seasons?

    21

    • #
      Mike

      ‘Economic seasons”

      The economic seasons have gone from gang busters hot ‘boom’, to chilling antarctic cold ‘bust’, metaphorically speaking..

      Note: When economies decline, emissions of all kinds even CO2, decline.

      Because economic seasons are entirely anthropogenic in origin, it does not matter where the sun is with respect to them, thus, one chilling economic season can follow another for example, unlike terrestrial seasons that are not anthropogenic.

      Of course, there will be a decline in anthropogenic emissions of all kinds including CO2 during a bad economic season of chilling economic phenomena. :)

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  • #
    Analitik

    Adelaide to Zero Carbon Challenge

    Is this a stunt by the SA Government to deflect attention away from their electricity supply issues?
    I can’t wait to see what idea gets awarded the A$250,000 prize that’s on offer

    http://adelaidetozero.yoursay.sa.gov.au/

    40

    • #
      Analitik

      Sorry, that should have been prizes. I wonder how many ideas will be deemed worthy of A$250,000

      I hope the citizens of SA get some value out of this

      40

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Analitik:

      No! It is a stunt to deflect attention away from their water supply issues? I feel for the street that got flooded by 3 bursts in the water main in 7 months. S.A. expensive electricity but collect your free water (boil before use).

      “I hope the citizens of SA get some value out of this” – so do we but bitter experience… And don’t ask about the planned $250 million Art Gallery. Presumably the Premier heard voices saying “build it and they will come” but do we really want them?

      00

      • #
        toorightmate

        Water supply AND power supply issues.
        Just look at all the industries flocking to SA with their cheap wind power. Highest unemployment in the nation – even worse than Tasmania.
        Send more GST please.

        10

  • #
    Dennis

    Late ABC news tonight covered the melting glaciers of New Zealand, another sign that global warming is upon us …. they pointed out, and some Dutch tourists were sad that the tourism potential was disappearing.

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    • #
      The Backslider

      And the glaciers have been melting for exactly how long?

      Come back when you have an answer.

      21

    • #
      toorightmate

      I visited Fox and Franz Josef glaciers on my honeymoon .
      They were melting then.
      That was 1,743 years ago, but who’s counting?

      11

    • #
      Annie

      When we visited a few years ago we were told that they had been receding for 12,000 years, so nothing new there. We went up in a small aircraft and could see the line where the Franz Josef Glacier used to stretch to.

      01

  • #
    Don Gaddes

    Congratulations Jennifer and others – you have confirmed the predictions of Alex S. Gaddes in his work ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ (1990,) for the repeat Solar Induced (X Factor?) Orbital ‘Dry Cycle’ hierarchy, that was observed by Gaddes as reaching Australia in 1979 – repeated in 1997 – and 2015. (18 years.) This particular grouping of ‘Dry Cycles’ means a progressive East to West longitudinal orbital Dry Period of Five Years – and include the exacerbating influence of the Lunar Metonic Cycle. (2016) Nothing to do with ENSO, or so-called ‘decadal oscillations.’
    The accompanying temperature rise is a result of reduced cloud cover and rainfall.
    An updated version of this work (including ‘Dry Cycle ‘ forecasts to 2055,) is available as a free pdf from dongaddes93@gmail.com

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  • #
    Dave in the States

    Interesting how an 18+ year trend is presented by the warmists as the product of natural variation, and aberrant weather events here and there are now presented as confirmation of climate theories instead of natural variation.

    51

  • #
    Doug T

    Euan Mearns over at Energy Matters has posted a insightful rebuttal. The “doctoral” and MSM BS and deliberate mis-information is intolerable and inexcusable. Thank goodness for the blog-o-sphere where we can find some decent science and research!

    Link is here.

    20

  • #
    Bob Weber

    The alarmists just cried ‘wolf’ again, because it’s already cooling.

    HadSST3 Global:

    2015/12 0.717
    2016/01 0.732
    2016/02 0.604

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3/data/HadSST.3.1.1.0/diagnostics/HadSST.3.1.1.0_monthly_globe_ts.txt

    Equatorial Ocean Heat Content is already back to pre-2015 ENSO levels:

    2014 12 0.50 0.48 0.54
    2015 1 0.28 0.22 0.15
    2015 2 0.54 0.65 0.83
    2015 3 0.85 1.17 1.52
    2015 4 1.05 1.42 1.74
    2015 5 1.03 1.42 1.53
    2015 6 0.87 1.27 1.51
    2015 7 0.92 1.36 1.69
    2015 8 0.99 1.43 1.97
    2015 9 1.04 1.48 1.80
    2015 10 1.04 1.51 1.91
    2015 11 0.92 1.41 1.78
    2015 12 0.58 1.04 1.20
    2016 1 0.44 0.88 1.25
    2016 2 -0.03 0.32 0.58

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

    I expect the alarmist absurdity to continue along with their continued ignorance of the main influence on temps, solar variability. The sun drove temps and OHC up with the SC24 2015 TSI peak last Feb/March, the highest peak since late 2002. From http://lasp.colorado.edu/data/sorce/tsi_data/daily/sorce_tsi_L3_c24h_latest.txt,

    Year 1au TSI
    2015 1361.4321
    2014 1361.3966
    2013 1361.3587
    2016 1361.3034
    2012 1361.2413
    2011 1361.0752
    2003 1361.0292
    2004 1360.9192
    2010 1360.8027
    2005 1360.7518
    2006 1360.6735
    2007 1360.5710
    2009 1360.5565
    2008 1360.5382

    It’s not only TSI magnitude either, it’s also the duration of higher vs lower TSI, like pulse-width and amplitude modulation, that lead to higher temperatures. The reason for the Feb temp spike was the 15 straight days of sufficiently high TSI, that ended on Feb 17 – and Feb only had 7 days when TSI wasn’t high enough or declining. March may yet end up “warm” too if TSI doesn’t drop off much from now by month’s end.

    I predict 2016 on the whole will be a cooling year because of the expected eventual lower TSI as the year progresses. If there is another TSI spike this year like there was in late 2015, which is entirely possible even if TSI for the year is lower, there will be another temporary uptick in temps – so be prepared for anything.

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    handjive

    According to the 97% science, any heat rise will be lead by a rise in human made carbon (sic) first:

    IEA, 6 March 2016 Paris

    “Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) – the largest source of man-made greenhouse gas emissions – stayed flat for the second year in a row, according to analysis of preliminary data for 2015 released today by the International Energy Agency (IEA).”

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    • #
      AndyG55

      roflmao,.,, bring the utter dumbness of SkS here.. great move.. bozo !!

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      • #
        KinkyKeith

        Definitely a new and Skeptical type of graphical analysis; could be called Sks plateau stats.

        They are, after all, the modern “flat earthers”.

        KK

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      Simon

      I don’t see anyone disputing the logic though. The “Pause” is nothing other than cherry-picking of natural variation. As Jo advises, let’s concentrate on the trend (which is up).
      No model can reliably predict ENSO, it’s chaotic. The heat imbalance doesn’t go missing in La Nina years, it ends up in the ocean.
      The climate models predicted faster warming in continents and at higher latitudes, which is exactly what is happening. We shouldn’t ignore the problem just because it is not currently warming as fast in this part of world.

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      • #
        ROM

        SkS relies entirely on cherry picking start and end points in every item of propaganda it ever promotes.
        And that includes assessing research papers and calling any paper at all that mentions climate as somehow supporting climate change hence the SkS lie of the 97% claim.
        And thats only one item out of dozens of similar cherry picking examples from SkS.

        SkS is as usual with its graph that Simon linked to is quite deliberately promoting completely false information once again.

        As SkS is a rabidly pro catastrophic warming propaganda based organisation and not a science based organisation it will ALWAYS use any data whether accurate or not that promotes the belief that the world is warming in a catastrophic manner and it is all humanity’s fault.

        So SkS uses any and all very heavily adjusted upwards temperature data such as from GISS and Tom Karls’ NCDC to try and promote John Cooks personal beliefs in a CAGW / Human caused Climate change.

        To check just how much the NCDC and GISS Data has been adjusted over the last decade or so, you get a very good idea of this from the adjustment graphs on the Norwegian scientist, Ole Humlum’s Climate4You site > Global Temperatures > Quality class 3: NCDC and GISS surface records of recent global air temperature change

        Scroll through until about a third of the way down and you will find the amount and range of downward adjustments made to January 1915 global temperatures to make them appear colder.
        And the upward adjustments to the January 2000 temperatures made since 2008 by the NCDC and GISS to make them appear warmer.
        All done to make it appear that a rapid but quite spurious warming has taken place in recent years.

        And the adjustments and infills and ghost stations and step adjustments and etc admitted by the scientists who work on them in a Judith Curry’s Climate etc post of some time back.

        If of course you believe this SKS propaganda then as I posted further up on “Jo’s” blog you might like to take the oppurtunity to outline to the commenters here just what you are personally doing and giving up and changing in your life style to help reduce the chances of such a catastrophic warming taking place.
        Or don’t you believe enough in such a predicted, always predicted, never verified scientifically, catastrophic warming to the extent you are prepared to do something about it personally

        It is almost universally accepted within the more respectable climate science researchers [ and that puts SkS somewhere in the rabid propaganda area of catastrophic climate promoting ] that the “Pause”, a misnomer by the way that implies that any anthropogenic created warming will re-commence sometime in the not very distant future for which there is absolutely no proof what so-ever, actually began at the end of the very large El Nino event in 1998.

        That would make the “Pause” some 18 years long and continuing.

        The time when the global temperature began their rapid increase is around the end of the still not fully understood Great Pacific Climate Shift of 1976-77 took place.
        Fisheries Researchgate paper here

        The Pacific fisheries are amongst the first to pick up these huge changes in the Pacific and other ocean’s water circulation patterns and the atmospheric consequences of those oceanic changes.

        The late 1970′s were when the atmospheric CO2 levels were beginning to rise so by 1988 the assumption and that is all it is and remains so in real observed climate science as it has never been a proven connection, was that increasing CO2 levels were supposedly responsible for the warming that had been taking place between the late 1970′s and the early to mid 1990′s

        Climate modelling on which ALL of the promoters of the CAGW belief and ideology use to promote their ideology and to attempt to force major societal changes onto our civilisation has yet to show that it can predict anything climate wise with any degree of accuracy.
        Including the total inability after 30 years of very extensive, very expensive climate modelling to accurately predict the major global weather affecting El Nino or a La Nina and its intensity more than a few months ahead, let alone the type of Global Climate a few years or a few decades ahead.

        So we have some 18 years of the “Pause” since the end of the 1998 super el Nino where there has been a very tiny increase, a less than statistically relevant increase in global temperatures according to the statisticians.

        And we have a rapid increase in global temperatures beginning in the late 1970′s around 1978 and running through to about the mid 1990′s to just prior to the 1998 Super El Nino, a time period of some 18 to 19 years.

        Two periods of close to equal in length, one with a modest global temperature increase that took place over a period of some 18 to 19 years long and upon which a whole unproved edifice of a looming global climate catastrophe has been erected and one where vast sums of taxpayers money, an estimated near Trillion dollars has been expended for absolutely no known effect on the global climate .

        The second and most recent period of again some 18 years length where global temperatures have remained at a statistically non relevant stasis or the “Pause” as it is called.

        So everything that SkS promotes is based on those 18 or 19 years of rapidly rising global temperatures in the 1980′s and early 1990′s and they then downgrade, as it doesn’t suit and counters their catastrophic fear inducing ideological stance, to the maximum the fact that for an equal period of time from the late 1990′s to the latter part of the second decade of the 21 st century, 2016, a period of some 18 years long, the same length as the temperature increasing period, global temperature increases have been almost non existent.

        A fact that even Phil Jones of Climate Gate fame and the CRU have admitted and is causing them a lot of trouble in trying to explain.

        To repeat; SkS is a pro catastrophic warming propaganda organisation which is known to deliberately alter comments from skeptics to give a different context that skeptic post on its site, thats if the comment aren’t rapidly deleted .

        SkS is NOT a scientific organisation in any shape or form and should be regarded and treated as just another CAGW catastrophe pimping organisation that relies on promoting a climate catastrophe to maintain its lucrative funding and keep the CAGW believers happy and its, SkS owners in a very comfortable life style .

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        The Backslider

        No model can reliably predict ENSO, it’s chaotic.

        No modelonger can at all predict the climate. It is chaotic.

        If you want to talk about trends, then the trend for the Holocene is down, not up. If you want to study climate then you must at least look at the entire holocent and we can clearly see that cooling is to be expected.

        You should take the time to look at the work of Henrik Svensmark who is able to show an amazingly accurate correlation between sun spots, cosmic rays and temperature over tens, hundreds, thousands and millions of years.

        This is the driver of climate, not CO2.

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    • #
      AndyG55

      Simple Simon… why are they graphing GISS ADJUSTMENTS ??

      The graph they use has basically zero resemblance to any real temperature series.

      63

  • #
    el gordo

    ‘Almost half of Australian voters say policies on climate change, renewable energy and the Great Barrier Reef will influence the way they vote at the next federal election, according to new polling shared exclusively with Guardian Australia.

    ‘The nationwide poll of 1,048 people over the weekend found 47% of people agreed or strongly agreed that “climate change and renewable energy will influence the way I vote at this year’s federal election”.

    Guardian

    ——–

    Half the population of Australia is mindless and will remain so.

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    • #
      Another Ian

      el gordo

      “‘The nationwide poll of 1,048 people over the weekend found 47% of people agreed or strongly agreed that “climate change and renewable energy will influence the way I vote at this year’s federal election”.”

      Positive spin and take heart –

      the other 53% agreed that they would be influenced to vote against same

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        Analitik

        I must be in the 47% mentioned by the article as I think climate change and renewable energy are both utter bollocks and are tools to further Agenda 21.

        So I will be influenced to vote for the parties that have the least to do with these issues

        90

        • #
          el gordo

          When the snake oil solar sales people ring up I tell them straight, they are wasting their time and should consider their future.

          20

          • #
            Mike

            You are basically saying “no” to the merchant banks i am guessing. They own the debt/borrowing capacity including that of oil and coal.

            By way of example, the biggest coal producer in the USA is filing for bankruptcy according to recent reports.

            It’s a bit like the “own your own home” mantra. Most homes are owned by the banks.

            Many solar panels are owned by creditors, until they are paid for.

            In my case, i don’t mind off grid solar, but would not take out a loan for it.

            20

            • #

              Mike,

              For someone who mentions economics a lot, you seem relatively uninformed about the cost of ….. off grid rooftop solar power.

              To do it correctly, that cost is up around $80,000 (conservatively) for the (hoped for) 25 year life of the best panels you can buy, let alone the cheapies usually on offer.

              It’s cheaper to stay on the grid. More reliable too.

              Tony.

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          • #

            When the snake oil solar sales people ring up…..

            For at least the last year or so, I’m averaging at least one call a week from these hawkers wanting to sell me rooftop solar.

            As much as I would like to engage with them, I just bite my tongue.

            At the end of their opening line, I just tell them something (only four words) which makes them immediately hang up with a polite thank you as they call off. That one four word sentence.

            “Sorry, I’m only renting.”

            Too much trouble.

            I see them occasionally in the local Mall centre passage, but I just look the other way.

            One time, one of the twenty somethings persisted, even though I was trying to ignore him.

            He asked me, “Excuse me, do you know anything about solar power?”

            I replied, “Yep, what would you like to know?”

            My good lady wife elbowed me smack in the ribs. That stopped me!

            Tony.

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    Another Ian

    Jo

    O/T but “Australia – you’re living in it”!


    A Decisive Blow to the Patriarchy
    By David Thompson on March 16, 2016 4:40 AM | 23 Comments

    Meanwhile, in Australia:

    A Yarra councillor wants to see more ‘green and red lady’ pedestrian signals installed across the inner city to promote gender equality.

    Because being “given an instruction by a man” – even a luminous stick figure at a pedestrian crossing – “is inherently so biased.”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2016/03/a-decisive-blow.html

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    • #
      Len

      Most of the time, women are wearing trousers now.

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    • #
      diogenese2

      “A Yarra councillor wants to see more ‘green and red lady’ pedestrian signals installed across the inner city to promote gender equality.

      Because being “given an instruction by a man” – even a luminous stick figure at a pedestrian crossing – “is inherently so biased.”

      I would suggest that the councillor – in protest – simply ignore the signals.

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    handjive

    Uh-oh:

    ABC, 4 hours ago
    Plants may be better at acclimatising to rising temperatures and contribute less to carbon dioxide in a warming world than some have previously thought, a new study suggests.

    “Maybe some of our models are over-predicting the degree to which plant respiration will cause accelerating feedback that speeds up climate change,” said Professor Peter Reich, an ecologist and plant physiologist from the University of Minnesota who led the study published today in Nature.

    This means they are less likely to become a net source of CO2 for the planet in the future.

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  • #
    Graeme No.3

    “the study published today in Nature…. shows plants are less likely to become a net source of CO2 for the planet in the future”.

    A net source? What gives out oxygen, rocks? Sic transit glorious peer review.

    40

    • #
      ianl8888

      Sic transit glorious peer review

      :) :) :)

      30

    • #
      Analitik

      I guess they’ve never seen a real greenhouse (as opposed to the atmospheric model)

      30

    • #

      G3. Plants don’t just photosynthesise. Hopefully the reviewers understood the complexity of plant physiology

      03

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Gee Aye:

        Yes I know, but when there is sunlight (and water and CO2) they produce oxygen and their food. The net effect is more oxygen, which we animals use when breathing.
        If plants were to become a net source of CO2 for the planet in the future, then our future, and the plants, is limited.

        40

      • #
        AndyG55

        “Hopefully the reviewers understood the complexity of plant physiology”

        lol.. Its patently obvious that they didn’t !!!

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    • #
      Get Real

      And was repeated on the ABC news site. Perhaps no one at the ABC has heard of photosynthesis and if they had they probably would have thought it some kind of software.

      10

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    toorightmate

    You cant take any notice of the last 200 monthly points which show a pause, BUT you sure as hell have to take notice of one high point.

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    pat

    15 Mar: Vox: David Roberts: Is it worth trying to “reframe” climate change? Probably not.
    The danger of climate change does not arouse much public passion, certainly nothing like what the facts would warrant. This drives climate campaigners crazy. Always has.
    So how to get people’s attention? One strategy might be to talk about climate change differently — to “frame” it differently, in the current jargon.
    Over the years, climate scientists, campaigners, and policymakers have returned to this strategy (or, rather, this hope) again and again. And again.
    The alternate framings are familiar by now: global warming as an economic opportunity, a way to spur technological innovation, a national security threat, a way of reducing local pollutants, a religious or moral imperative…
    The research on framing effects has thus far been inconclusive, to say the least…
    A letter (LINK) published this month in Nature Climate Change attempts to settle the question. Researchers Thomas Bernauer and Liam F. McGrath, political scientists at Switzerland’s Center for Comparative and International Studies, set up experiments in which people (drawn from different demographic and ideological backgrounds) were randomly assigned texts that framed climate change in different ways…
    “In summary,” Bernauer and McGrath write, “we do not find any robust empirical evidence for alternative framing (justification) of climate policy being able to increase public support for GHG mitigation—whether in the sample as a whole or amongst particular groups of participants (such as climate sceptics).”…
    http://www.vox.com/2016/3/15/11232024/reframe-climate-change

    16 Mar: EurActiv: Aline Robert: Climate deal relegated to ‘other items’ in Council agenda
    The economy and the climate will be pushed to the margins of this week’s European Council summit on Thursday and Friday (17-18 March), where discussions will once again be dominated by the migration crisis. EurActiv France reports…
    http://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/climate-deal-relegated-to-other-items-in-council-agenda/

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    el gordo

    ‘I can’t explain the apparent sudden surge in global warmth, and I don’t know anyone who predicted its magnitude.’

    Jennifer Marohasy

    ——-

    The north east Pacific warm blob disappeared at the same time. Coincidence, I think not.

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    pat

    16 Mar: EurActiv: Georgi Gotev: Late publication of biofuels study raises questions
    The European Commission has finally published the Globiom Study on the indirect land use change [ILUC], which it had kept secret and unavailable during the public consultation period for the Renewable Energy Directive for the period 2020-2030.
    The 261-page study (LINK) was commissioned in 2013. A consortium of three respected companies, including Ecofys and IIASA, investigated the ILUC effect, combining experiences in the renewable energy sectors and land use change modeling.
    The study was commissioned because of doubts over a 2012 U-turn by the EU executive with regard to the promotion of the biofuel industry…
    Just how anxious officials were to keep the study ‘under wraps’ is illustrated in a disingenuous reply given in the European Parliament by Commissioner Miguel Arias Canete on 2 March to a Parliamentary Question tabled in December last by MEP Norica Nicolai (ALDE, Romania)…READ ON
    http://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/late-publication-of-biofuels-study-raises-questions/

    14 Mar: Guardian: Arthur Neslen: EU green transport target ‘may have increased greenhouse gas emissions’
    Renewable transport goal has encouraged biofuels including those from palm oil and soybean, which are found to be worse than diesel oil for emissions
    European Union renewable energy targets may have increased greenhouse gas emissions because the dirtiest biofuels produce three times the emissions of diesel oil, according to the most complete EU analysis yet carried out…
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/14/eu-green-transport-target-may-have-increased-greenhouse-gas-emissions

    10

    • #
      ianl8888

      .. a disingenuous reply given in the European Parliament by Commissioner Miguel Arias Canete …

      In short, he pretended that a report publicly issued by his own organisation 7 months previously, did not exist. The report recommended that Malaysia and Indonesia use force to stop palm oil plantations from expanding so that EU sugar production could better supply biofuels at a higher price

      And some people still wonder why Trumpian direct vulgar contempt of the “elite” (parasites) has appeal

      50

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    pat

    16 Mar: ClimateChangeNews: Ed King: UK Budget 2016: Osborne moves to prop up UK oil and gas sector
    “The £730 million announced for renewable energy should mean we’ll continue building offshore wind farms at about the current rate,” said Richard Black, head of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit.
    “It’s equally notable that there’s nothing new for onshore wind, biomass and solar – or, indeed, for measures to cut energy waste, which we know is the energy investment that Britons support most. And we still have no idea what support looks like 2020.”…
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/03/16/budget-2016-osborne-moves-to-prop-up-uk-oil-and-gas-sector/

    16 Mar: ReutersCarbonPulse: Stian Reklev: Coca-Cola, Starbucks among new entrants in Beijing cap-and-trade system
    Along with Coca-Cola and Starbucks, Shell Tongyi Petrochemical Co. and Siemens China were among foreign-headquartered firms included…
    But the list also included a number of organisations not typically associated with high emissions or carbon markets, such as the Palace Museum in the Forbidden City, one of Beijing’s most famous landmarks, and the People’s Daily, a state-owned newspaper.
    Several police stations, hot spring resorts and university colleges were also included…
    http://carbon-pulse.com/17116/

    00

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    pat

    meant to excerpt this line from EurActiv’s “Climate deal relegated to ‘other items’ in Council agenda”, see comment #55:

    “But talks on the EU’s climate action and the agreement finalised in Paris last December receive only a passing mention at the bottom of this long list of priorities.”

    00

  • #
    pat

    16 Mar: WSJ: Cassandra Sweet: Ivanpah Solar Plant May Be Forced to Shut Down
    Federally backed project asks California regulators for more time to sort out its problems
    A federally backed, $2.2 billion solar project in the California desert isn’t producing the electricity it is contractually required to deliver to PG&E Corp. , which says the solar plant may be forced to shut down if it doesn’t receive a break Thursday from state regulators…
    But the unconventional solar-thermal project, financed with $1.5 billion in federal loans, has riled environmentalists by killing thousands of birds, many of which are burned to death—and has so far failed to produce the expected power…
    However, the extension request is opposed by some consumer groups, who are complaining that the cost of the electricity from the struggling plant is exorbitant…READ ON
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/ivanpah-solar-plant-may-be-forced-to-shut-down-1458170858

    16 Mar: AFP: The rise and fall of Spanish renewable energy giant Abengoa
    Abengoa went from fixing electrical installations in war-torn Spain in the 1940s to building the world’s largest solar power plant in the US — a remarkable success story until its uncontrolled growth pushed it to the brink of bankruptcy.
    The struggling renewable energy giant on Wednesday presented a debt restructuring plan which will see its creditors wrestle control of the firm from the family that founded the company 75 years ago.
    It is an unexpected ending for a company which just six years ago was praised by US President Barack Obama after it announced it would build the world’s biggest solar plant in Arizona…
    “It was a big multinational, focused on renewable energy and with a production model based on technological innovation. It was an extremely attractive model,” Carlos Sebastian, a former Abengoa board member between 2005 and 2011, told AFP.
    “But it grew at an absolutely excessive pace and based, in addition, on indebtedness,” added Sebastian, who left the board of the company in 2011 due to disagreements with the president of the company at the time, Felipe Benjumea…READ ON
    http://www.afp.com/en/news/rise-and-fall-spanish-renewable-energy-giant-abengoa

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    • #

      With respect to the second part of pat’s comment here, about the Abengoa plant in Arizona. I’ve been using this plant for comparison’s sake since I first heard about it back in mid 2008, not long after I started doing what I do.

      The plant is the Solana Plant, and it’s at Gila Bend, near Phoenix, in Arizona. Now, while I first heard about it in 2008, it wasn’t online delivering power until 2013, so again, that tells you these plants, like all power plants, have a long lead time until they actually start delivering. This plant uses the Parabolic Trough technology, as opposed to the Ivanpah Plant, which uses the Power Tower method of operation.

      It has a Nameplate (ostensibly) of 280MW, but it beats me how they can say that when the generators are only rated at a nominal 125MW each, and there are 2 of them. At that early stage when I first came across the information, the Plant was mooted to cost around $1 Billion, but that has blown out now to around $2.2 Billion, again showing the actual cost discrepancy between proposal and actual completion, and giving lie to the (modelled) LCOE charts that always quote the lowest cost the can conceivably model for renewables, when the actual cost always seems to end up as being double.

      The plant claims it can deliver base load equivalent power, (with a Nameplate of 280MW, who cares what the claim is) and has 6 hours of heat storage, in other words, able to deliver power after the Sun goes down, and the use of those phrases gives the impression that they can claim 24/7/365 power delivery.

      However, even using the hoped for claim of power delivery of 944GWH of power a year, even that comes out at a Capacity Factor (CF) of only 38%, not much better than wind power really. At that CF, extrapolated down to a 24 hour period it equates to just under 9 hours a day averaged across the whole year, so, if this plant can run for 6 hours after the Sun sets, then there are indeed long periods when the plant delivers very little power at all.

      Actual power delivery is nowhere near that claimed total, and, while this is a Wikipedia entry, painting a rosy image of this renewable, this link shows actual power delivery and even the 2014 total comes in at barely 29% CF.

      Even so, as with all of these plants, Natural Gas is used to run the generators up and deliver power in the early AM, until there is enough heat in the compound to take over, a longer time now because some of that heat is now diverted for after Sun operation.

      This is one of my earlier Posts where I used this Abengoa Solana Plant as an example, and this is from August of 2009, and I know so much more now than I did then.

      The Outrageous Claims From The Renewable Power Sector (Part 2)

      Tony.

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      • #
        Get Real

        Tony, perhaps they haven’t included the output from the diesel powered generators and floodlights.

        10

  • #
    Louis Hissink

    How interesting – hottest temperatures in the regions where there are no measuring stations.

    60

    • #
      el gordo

      Its the fudge factor.

      21

    • #
      ianl8888

      C’mon Louis, we’ve all modelled drillhole data into large interpolated/extrapolated empty spaces. It’s just that when we do this we risk JORC jail but “climate” scientists regard their guesses as riskless heroics

      11

  • #
    Neville

    Just posted this at Jennifer’s blog————-

    I think we’ll have to wait this one out for a few more months. Interesting that Bob Tisdale looked at the SSTs for 1997/8 el nino compared to the 2015/16 en and found big down ticks in SST ( by feb 2016) in every ocean basin except the south pacific.
    Strangely the south atlantic didn’t seem to be impacted by this latest en at all. But the SH sea ice anomaly graph above shows at least 4 years lower than the Feb 2016 marker. Of course the growth in Antarctic ice has been incredible over the last 5 years.

    https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2016/03/14/global-sea-surface-temperature-responses-to-the-199798-and-201516-el-nino-events/#more-10486

    10

    • #
      el gordo

      Antarctic sea ice extent has returned to average, with the promise of considerable growth.

      On flimsy evidence it seems the heat in the oceans (including the warm blob) has gone into the atmosphere.

      The precipitous drop in Indian Ocean SST is of interest, I’ll follow it up. In the meantime, be prepared to buy rice futures.

      11

      • #
        AndyG55

        “heat in the oceans…. has gone into the atmosphere”

        Trouble is, once there, it will dissipate into space.

        Not good !!!

        20

    • #
      el gordo

      There has been back to back monsoon failure in India over the past few years and the Klimatariat imply it has something to do with the Indian Ocean SST being up to 1.2°C warmer.

      With the temps now on the slide the monsoons should return to normalcy, or perhaps not.

      21

  • #
    pat

    update best posted here. at last moment, Reuters was claiming CAGW was back on the European Council agenda (remember it was on the agenda already…just at the bottom…where it seems it remained).

    anyway, it’s all over:

    17 Mar: European Council Press Release: European Council conclusions on jobs, growth and competitiveness and on climate and energy, 17 March 2016
    II. CLIMATE AND ENERGY
    6. The European Council welcomes the submission by the Commission of the package on energy security as well as of the Communication “Road from Paris”. It encourages the legislators to proceed with work on the proposals to reinforce the EU energy security as a matter of priority on the basis of its previous conclusions and the relevant strategies endorsed by the European Council. It also recalled the importance of a fully-functioning and interconnected energy market…
    The European Council looks forward to the signature of the Paris Agreement in New York on 22 April and underlines the need for the European Union and its Member States to be able to ratify the Paris Agreement as soon as possible and on time so as to be Parties as of its entry into force.
    http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/03/17-euco-intermediate-conclusions/

    ignore the summary under the opening pic in following live blog.
    posts are “NEWEST” first … CAGW barely got a look in. includes LINK to James Crisp: German-Polish spat threatened summit backing for Paris Agreement EXCLUSIVE / A spat between Germany and Poland linked to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project almost derailed plans for European Union leaders to call for the swift signing of the Paris Agreement on climate change at today’s summit in Brussels…

    17 Mar: EurActiv: Live: #EUCO Spring Summit … on refugee crisis, again
    1:11 (updated: 1:18)
    Matthew Tempest: 18/03/2016 – 00:20 –
    It’s all over. Working dinner finished, leaders leaving, no press conference – but possibly some national briefings.
    https://www.euractiv.com/section/all/news/live-euco-summit-with-turkey-on-refugee-crisis/

    10

  • #
    pat

    a reprieve of sorts:

    17 Mar: WSJ: Cassandra Sweet: California Regulators Give Ivanpah Solar Plant More Time
    Lifeline gives owners up to a year to work out problems
    The California Public Utilities Commission approved without discussion forbearance agreements that would give the owners of the plant, BrightSource Energy Inc., NRG Energy Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google unit, up to a year to work out its problems…
    The extension was approved over objections from consumer groups, which wanted PG&E to cancel the contracts or renegotiate them to get a lower price…
    The plant isn’t required to generate the full amount of power listed in state documents, according to representatives for NRG and BrightSource. They declined to say how much it was required to produce…
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/california-regulators-give-ivanpah-solar-plant-more-time-1458242826

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    pat

    17 Mar: NYT: Raphael Minder: Once a Darling, Spanish Solar Company Abengoa Faces Reckoning
    Clean-energy technologies will play a crucial role as countries try to meet the ambitious targets set by the United Nations climate accord last December. But many of the technologies underpinning renewables are proving economically unsustainable in the short term, particularly with oil prices declining and governments reducing incentives.
    The financial reality is forcing companies globally to adjust. A big British utility, SSE, is rethinking its wind farms, as the country cuts subsidies. SolarCity and other American renewable companies left Nevada after the state withdrew its support of rooftop systems…
    Its fall from grace, said Valeriano Ruiz Hernandez, a retired professor at Seville University who taught many of the company’s engineers, is “a genuine hammer blow” for Spain and its renewable energy sector.
    “I always had the intuition that so much corporate ambition would end up bursting at the seams,” he said…READ ON
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/18/business/international/once-a-darling-spanish-solar-company-abengoa-faces-reckoning.html?_r=0

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    pat

    have been trying to find out precisely how much energy Morocco’s Ouarzazate solar plant has been generating, but this is the best I can find. even so, CNN Money deceptively gives impression the plant can operate 24/7:

    11 Mar: CNN Money: Alanna Petroff: Morocco is producing solar power at night
    Perhaps most impressive is that the complex can continue to operate after the sun sets. Heat from the system can be stored for hours in tanks filled with molten salts. That allows steam to be generated for hours and keep turning the turbine at night…
    The operational portion of the Ouarzazate solar complex provides 2% of the country’s daily power, and the country has a long way to go to hit its targets…
    The ability to store power for hours at a time is crucial for a country such as Morocco because usage peaks after the sun goes down, he added.
    http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/11/technology/solar-power-electricity-morocco-ouarzazate-night/

    again, impression is given the plant provides 24/7 power:

    16 Mar: CSP Plaza: Morocco’s Shining Example of CSP Plants
    Finding the billions of dollars to establish a regional power network – particularly to build expensive power transmission lines – was a big problem…
    Nonetheless, the Noor project has gone ahead, funded in large part by international development institutions and the World Bank. Morocco is giving generous subsidies to the plant’s operations…
    The liquid in the pipes is also used to heat piles of molten salt: the big bonus of the system is that the salt stays hot enough to store heat, ***allowing power to be generated at night and on cloudy days.
    The disadvantage is that the complexities of CSP technology make it far more expensive than photovoltaic.
    ***Another problem at Noor is finding enough water to both clean the mirrors – which can become less effective due to frequent sand storms – and to act as a coolant…
    http://en.cspplaza.com/analysis-moroccos-shining-example-of-clean-energy.html

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    pat

    at least the “hours” are mentioned here, but is this money well spent when coal is so plentiful in SA:

    29 Feb: New24: Louzel Lombard: PICS: The World’s largest solar plant (Morocco’s Ouarzazate) has gone live – and it’s visible from space
    For the energy to be stored and used on cloudy days, or at night, a cylinder of salt melts by the warmth of the mirrors during the day and stays hot enough to produce power for up to three hours at night…
    In South Africa, in collaboration with International Finance Corporation (part of the World Bank), CIF is providing about R5.3 billion (from $330 million) to the country’s first public and private CSP plants, including the KaXu project, the first utility-scale CSP plant to operate in Sub-Saharan Africa…
    Compared to Morocco’s plant, KaXu Solar One has a total installed capacity of 100 MW plus 2.5 hours of storage in molten salts.
    http://traveller24.news24.com/Explore/Green/pics-the-worlds-largest-solar-plant-has-gone-live-and-its-visible-from-space-20160229

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      Annie

      In these countries, Morocco and South Africa, I rather think the night lasts longer than 2.5 to 3 hours. What happens when the stored heat runs out? How much does that all cost compared with coal/gas/oil fired power generation?

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