JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).

Handbooks

The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX

Think it has been debunked? See here.

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Weekend Unthreaded, 8.4 out of 10 based on 25 ratings

• #
Peter Miller

Is anyone able to explain the significance of overlapping IR absorption wavelengths between carbon dioxide and water vapour.

Water vapour is circa 30-40 times more abundant in our atmosphere than CO2, so presumably the so called greenhouse effect of water vapour must swamp CO2 by a similar factor of 30 or 40 to 1?

• #
KinkyKeith

Hi Peter

Look at the diagrams 6.2 and 6.3.

http://irina.eas.gatech.edu/EAS8803_Fall2009/Lec6.pdf

Pick out H2O and CO2.

The lower parts of the graphs represent larger amounts of IR NOT able to escape Earth.

This means that a dip in the graph corresponds with IR absorption somewhere between Earths surface and the Satellite.

See how dips for both gases correspond at 3 to 2.5 mu metres.

Likely water is going to eat up all the available IR at this wavelength.

For 16 mu metres it is not quite so clear ; there is some overlap.

IR on the LHS of the graphs is more important because it is the more energetic IR. IR on right of graphs is less potent (longer wavelength).

ie there is competition between water and CO2 in the more energetic area.

Someone else may explain it better.

Good luck with it

KK

• #
Andrew McRae

>> IR on the LHS of the graphs is more important because it is the more energetic IR.

The opposite. The RHS is more important because the surface OLR has long wavelengths, not short ones.

That’s a good diagram. I keep forgetting about the 4.2μm band (~2350/cm), it slips between the H2O peaks nicely but there just isn’t much of it about. Virtually nothing shorter than 7μm is coming from from the surface (in both blackbody theory and spectroscopic measurement).
The 15μm ±1 is where the 2 trillion dollar action is.

There’s all sorts of real world data about the relative power of these different wavelengths over at SoD.

• #
Richard111

Thanks for raising this discussion on LOW FREQUENCY IR radiation. CO2 molecules in the atmosphere are radiating away over the 13 to 18 micron bands 24/7 and some half of that energy reaches the surface, but the surface is ALREADY RADIATING over those bands assuming the surface is at or near 15C (288K). The MAXIMUM HEATING POTENTIAL in the 13 to 18 micron bands is -13C (260K) and this will ONLY be available from the 13 micron photons, they are the most energetic photons for the whole 13 to 18 micron bands. Expanding that argument for the whole band, which covers about 18% of the total energy radiated from the surface, this radiation from the CO2 molecules (call it back radiation if you want) CAN ONLY DELAY THE SURFACE COOLING ABILITY BY 18%. IT CANNOT IN ANY WAY WARM THAT ALREADY WARMER SURFACE.

If you think this is wrong please explain.

• #
Andrew McRae

The most likely explanation is: https://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2015/04/07/thermorons/

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Hugh

CAN ONLY DELAY THE SURFACE COOLING ABILITY BY 18%. IT CANNOT IN ANY WAY WARM THAT ALREADY WARMER SURFACE.

Don’t SHOUT.

Delaying the cooling ability is exactly what could make the surface warmer.

• #
KinkyKeith

Hugh

You may have noticed a reply up above by Andrew where he said:

“The RHS is more important because the surface OLR has long wavelengths, not short ones.”

That is true. What I said is also true, and if you turn what I said around to read: The RHS of the graph is unimportant because it is of such low virtue (virtue here being a thermodynamic term relating to the inherent power of the heat/energy) that it has very little effect anyhow.

So; to summarise; in the powerful wavelength the is almost no ground origin IR that can do anything and in the plentiful wavelength it has no power.

ie. CO2 is a wet rag; it can do nothing; even though the mechanism IS there and IS working itmay be too small an effect to bother with.

Somebody may be able to tell us the relevant temperatures associated with the two CO2 bands at 16 and 2.5 – 3 mu m?

Your comment “Delaying the cooling ability is exactly what could make the surface warmer.” needs to be changed to

“Delaying the cooling ability is exactly what could make the area where the delay occurs warmer.”

This delay is NOT at the surface ; it is up in heavens.

KK

• #
KinkyKeith

ps. please don’t tell me not to shout; I’m an old man and I don’t really relate to this new cyber lingo.

I’m just emphasising the important bits. No offense intended.

• #
Richard111

Indeed Hugh. The logic is appealing. Problem is I’ve spent several years working in desert regions. Because of the wonderful clear air at night I started looking at the stars. But boy! Does it get cold in the desert at night when the air is clear?!?! Almost down to freezing! Yet up comes the sun next day and temps are back in the blistering high fourties. Could bore you with details of digging down to find warm sand and how rocks crack up and how to make make ice at night, and on and on. One last comment, upper air seems to cool rapidly at night and every so often, while lying on the desert sand, you can feel a sudden slight cooling of the air around you even though you know there is no wind.
Interaction of the atmosphere with local surfaces is far more complex than models can handle which is why they are always wrong.

• #
KinkyKeith

Thanks for that Andrew. The practicalities of interpreting the diagrams is a big box of tricks that I haven’t looked at for a long time.

And thanks Richard111 for taking us into the vexed area of back radiation.

Whatever or however it functions it cannot warm the surface and if it exists I don’t feel that it would actually “penetrate” very far back.

As you say, its’ a delaying factor that might allow energy to accumulate temporarily.

KK

• #
Peter C

KK,

The Sun warms the Earth.

Back radiation, according to the Greenbise Theory acts like insulation, reducing the rate of heat loss.

I was a bit uncertain about this, partly because of an argument by analogy from Alan Siddons that a light bulb will not shine brighter if placed in front of a mirror and exposed to its own reflection and partly because my experiments did not shown any difference with reflected radiation.

The problem remained of course that if a light bulb is surrounded on all sides by a reflector, how does he radiation get out?

I have recently conducted a new experiment which shows that reflecting radiation back does indeed slow down radiation heat loss..

Breifly, my equipment consists of two cylindrical glass vases. One fits inside the other with about 1.5mm gap, which is sealed at the top with styrofoam to prevent convective heat loss. The inner vase is filled with hot water and capped. A thermometer through the cap measures the temperature of the water. The rate of cooling gives the rate of heat loss. A second thermocouple on the outside wall of the outer vase also gives an indication of the rate of heat loss.

Cooling of the inner vase ( containing the hot water) is due to both conduction and radiation across the air gap. When the inner surface of the outer vase is silvered by gluing on aluminiium foil the rate of heat loss is reduced and the thermocouple on the outer vase reads about 8c cooler.

My experiment does not have the problems that Anthony Watts had with his experiment.

So I now think that the Slayers were incorrect on this basic point. It does not prove the Greenhouse Theory in any way, but it can not be confounded at this level.

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KinkyKeith

Sounds good Peter.

Logic says that “back-radiation” cant re-heat the surface because energy can only flow towards a place of lower energy.

Any delay in allowing outbound IR to escape must mean that the energy accumulates at the blockage (clouds?) until it punches through.

Of course the quantification of this delay effect is another matter and it would be interesting to compare it with convection in the same area.

Very Very difficult.

KK

• #
Hugh

Logic says that “back-radiation” cant re-heat the surface because energy can only flow towards a place of lower energy.

It does not need to heat it, just slowing down normal cooling is enough.

• #
KinkyKeith

GOTCHA

I should have read down further.

A WARMER.

You obviously KNOW NOTHING about physics and especially THERMODYNAMICS.

The dynamics part means that it moves around.

I have no doubt that in your own mynde you could make the Colorado river turn around and go back up hill;

ps. I would suspect that “back radiation” would travel a few hundredths of a millimetre “back”.

KK

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Richard111

Ah! Wondered what happened to my thermos flask.

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gai

Petter this has to do with ozone but the same physics applies to CO2.

…Ozone is most effective at absorbing radiation at the 250 nm wavelength. In fact, it is 100 times more efficient at 250 nm than it is at 350 nm. After ozone absorbs this shortwave radiation, it reradiates it at generally longer wavelengths which initially goes in all directions. Some is reabsorbed by other atmospheric constituents, some makes it to Earth’s surface, and some returns to space. The net effect, however, is an increase in temperature in the upper stratosphere….

by Wheeling Jesuit University/NASA-sponsored Classroom of the Future.
http://www.cotf.edu/ete/modules/ozone/ozatmo.html

WRITERS (Science Content Developers):
Dr. Mike Witiw, Associate Professor Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Worldwide (meteorology, exploration in physics, mathematics-algebra through calculus, graduate course in statistics).

Stephen M. Pompea: Ph.D. (astrophysics) Department Head, Education and Public Outreach. National Optical Astronomy Observatory

The Rt Rev Dr Steven Croft, the Bishop of Sheffield UK.
*******************

A bit on the actual physics from Wiki

The Pound–Rebka experiment ( gases are moving in random directions within a gravitational field)

…The test is based on the following principle: When an atom transits from an excited state to a base state, it emits a photon with a specific frequency and energy. When an atom of the same species in its base state encounters a photon with that same frequency and energy, it will absorb that photon and transit to the excited state. If the photon’s frequency and energy is different by even a little, the atom cannot absorb it (this is the basis of quantum theory). When the photon travels through a gravitational field, its frequency and therefore its energy will change due to the gravitational redshift. As a result, the receiving atom cannot absorb it. But if the emitting atom moves with just the right speed relative to the receiving atom the resulting doppler shift cancels out the gravitational shift and the receiving atom can absorb the photon….

There is also recoil energy but in the IR region of the spectrum it is a smaller effect.

SEE: Einstein’s Space-Time: An Introduction to Special and General Relativity (It is just 2 paragraphs)

• #
Yonniestone

For anyone interested today we attended the Anti-Mosque rally in Bendigo organised by the United Patriots Front (UPF) with guest speaker Dr Daniel Nalliah President of Rise Up Australia Party.

There was about 1000 patriot supporters and 500 anti-racism (leftards), the two groups were well separated by Vitoria Police with a positive atmosphere amongst the patriot supporters who were represented by a genuine diverse spread of people from all walks of life, even when some speakers got passionate about the messages they conveyed not once was there out of control behaviour from the crowd unlike the vile chants from the left filth that everyone ignored, to be honest I’ve seen a lot worse from local footy supporters where the patriots were concerned.

• #

“Climate change” and that other matter, the two greatest threats to Western Civilisation. It might be the end of us.

And our PM supports both.

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Andrew McRae

Hmmm, tell us more.
What sort of information and direction did UPF and Rise Up proclaim at this rally?

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Glen Michel

ABC and SBS portrayed the anti crowd as a bunch of racist yobs chanting oi oi.No attempt to get any balance.

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llew jones

Interesting that the socialists or lefties or whatever they are are supportive of the Muslim religion which when it converts to national Sharia law in Muslim countries like Saudi Arabia gives homosexuals and women, just for starters, a very hard time.

My guess is that they are pathological haters of Christianity the major Western religion. Failing of course to recognise that the better parts of the Quran were stolen from ideas in the Old and New Testaments. Very hard to understand why they support a Religion which is so violently opposed to so many “progressive” values. Perhaps like the Climate Change Alarmists their main qualification is to be mentally challenged.

• #
Yonniestone

Andrew I did reply to you @ 08:11am but my comment is still in moderation, I guess it’s a bit difficult to discuss terrorism without mentioning the elephant in the room.

My apologies to the mods if I’ve given you headaches on a Sunday, cheers.

• #
Andrew McRae

It’s been long enough now with no show that I will just have to accept the mods have decided the topic is too hot and would bring the wrong sort of décor to Jo’s blog. That’s fine by me.
You could head over to Catallaxy Files and pick a recent thread there to regale the cats with stories of protest.

• #

Perhaps if people want to discuss “the other matter” they can go to the “Friends of Q Society of Australia” on Facebook.

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Anthoyn

And history repeats.

• #

Gigapixel people surveillance.

As Western societies become increasingly unstable due to an inappropriate poverty-inducing diversion of economic resources to climate change related nonsense as well as that other matter regarding a certain expansionist political ideology disguised as a religion, governments will increasingly rely on people surveillance?

Here is an example of a 2.1 Gigapixel image you can zoom on. Try looking at almost any face in the crowd and see how clear it is.

The following words are not mine.

Zoom in on this 2.1 Gigapixel image

http://www.gigapixel.com/image/gigapan-canucks-g7.html

Ever wonder how they found the Boston bombers in just a few days? This may help you to understand what the government is looking at. This photo was taken in Canada and shows about 700,000 people.

Hard to disappear in a crowd.

Pick on a small part of the  crowd click a couple of times — wait — click a few more times and see how clear each individual face will become each time. Or use the wheel on your mouse.

This picture was taken with a 70,000 x 30,000 pixel camera  (2100 Mega  Pixels.)  These cameras are not sold to the public and are being installed in strategic locations.

The camera can identify a face among a multitude of people.

Place your computer’s cursor in the mass of people and double-click a  couple times.

Scary sharp!!  Not so easy to hide in a crowd anymore.

http://www.gigapixel.com/mobile/?id=79995

• #

The question mark after the second paragraph was unintentional. Just sayin’.

• #

The above image is a composite over time made up of several different images. Another camera in use is the US ARGUS-IS which is made up of a composite array of 368 standard 5 megapixel cameras from cell phones for a resolution of 1.8 Gigapixels. It can take a 1.8 Gigapixel image at a frame rate of 12 fps in a camera mounted on a aerial platform. It generates staggering amounts of data.

See video at https://youtu.be/QGxNyaXfJsA

• #
KinkyKeith

The people on the upper deck come out very sharp.

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Andrew McRae

I found Wally almost immediately. Just below the overhanging branch of the big tree in the middle.

• #
Dave

.

Just reminiscing?
An odd comment a few months ago annoyed me in “Weekend Unthreaded”

Some pedantic person said they were astounded at the voting stats of 6 votes and no comments!

This was their COMMENT:

“Today’s confusing stat. This thread with only a title and no content and not even a single comment, was voted 6 out of 10.

When I open this Blog of http://joannenova.com.au/ on the weekend, I love reading the many varied comments about everythng, Religion, Science, Politics, Woodwork, Stories, electricity etc – I really like this “Weekend Unthreaded” because of it!

I hit the vote button instantly regardless of the comments, whether there is NONE or ONE HUNDRED.

So tonight I VOTED again because I usually do, but in this case as a protest also!

Ehhee

Off to bed now – Rugby on at 1.30am Sunday Wales V Australia on GEM

Night folks

• #

that was me that said that as an opening line to a blank thread. It wasn’t pedantry (unlike what I am saying now) though since it was stating an observation, not correcting an error, with a brief opinion/observation.

You didn’t mention cooking. Balinese curry last night – 5 cloves of garlic per serve!

• #

Hmm!

Dubious method to create wind power!

Nyuk nyuk nyuk!

Tony.

• #

IN my opinion, and I am sure there is heaps of published peer reviewed research to back me up, is that the garlic is not about the amount of wind but its quality.

• #
Dave

I think you’ll find it’s not the garlic

But the oil that causes it to occur, garlic is just an indicator!
Ehhee

• #

Is there a contradiction between greenhouse theory and lunar eclipse theory?

Most agreed that the lunar eclipse was darker than usual. Little did they know, they were witnessing a sign of global cooling.

http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=10&year=2015

So more light being absorbed by the atmosphere causes cooling and a change in refraction angle is discounted.

As sunlight passes through our atmosphere, the green to violet portion of the light spectrum is, essentially, filtered out. This same effect, by the way, is what makes our sky blue during the day. Meanwhile, the reddish portion of the spectrum is least affected.

What’s more, when this reddish light first entered the atmosphere, it was bent (refracted) toward the Earth’s surface. It’s bent again when it exits on the other side of Earth. This double bending sends the reddish light onto the moon during a total lunar eclipse.

http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=10&year=2015

• #
Dariusz

The employment slaughter in the petroleum industry continues. My job hangs by a threat now. This crisis already last longer than in 1986. No respite on the horizon with another 12 months there won,t be any petroleum industry left except established low price production centres. And yet petrol station price has changed little. Why? Taxes, not the greedy petroleum companies as media leads us to believe. Not even lower oz dollars exchange rate justifies this. Oil will continue to be a milking cow as someone has to pay for the GW crap.
With the price of oil of less than mineral water how can you even think about 5 to 10 times more expensive renewables?

• #
Another Ian

Dariusz

Some more on this.

A bloke I know has been in drilling all his life and reckons he’s seen the oil industry down before but never seen it down with everything else down as well.

And SDA has had examples of Alberta (the Canadian oil patch). A while ago spot LPG price in Edmonton was the equivalent of you being paid about \$14 to take a 45 kg cylinder. Then the new provincial regime slapped on a new “sock the oil industry ” tax and on their first budget review found that the province was 6 billion in the hole and the oil industry had sacked 35000 people.

• #
Robert O

Governments always tax alcohol, tobacco and petrol knowing that if prices go up the demand more or less stays the same. I haven’t seen the breakdown on fuel recently, but excise and taxes were about 2/3 of the pump price. We have to pay for our administrative costs which are high, e.g. ex PM’s, Hawke, Howard,Keating, Rudd, Gillard and perhaps Abbott. Our health costs are very high, but any doctor will tell you that smoking is fatal and obesity is just as bad resulting in a painful premature death; really a lifestyle choice. I remember a doctor friend telling me at medical conferences decades ago about the people half smoked, now it is only the occasional one. And yet we are worrying about the effects of global warming.

• #
King Geo

The Shale Oil/Gas boom in the USA has brought on this “low oil price cycle”. The warning signs were there 7 years ago that Shale Oil/Gas production in the USA would result in the current “chronic oversupply scenario”. But human nature being what it is, Oil & Gas explorers only reacted when it was too late. The penny will drop soon – quoting Dariusz “how can you even think about 5 to 10 times more expensive renewables?” Well the realization will resonate in due course otherwise economic ruin will continue globally. In due course expect oil/gas prices to rise to more realistic levels – when? I reckon 2017.

• #

King Geo

With the extra finds like deep drilling off Israel and Egypt lately in the news I’m glad I don’t have shares in the LNG exporters in Oz.

Further to my comment above is a bloke laid off deep drilling east of Brasil s well

• #

Mmmm…a “carbon positive house that produces more energy than it consumes”.

http://inhabitat.com/australias-first-carbon-positive-prefab-house-produces-more-energy-than-it-consumes/

• #
Annie

Yuk, I can’t say I’d want to live in that!

We’ve just built an energy efficient house but it’s heaps more attractive.

• #
Graeme No.3

Energy from the solar PV array on the Green RooF?

Double glazing or not, this house would be a death trap in summer. The heat would build up and it wouldn’t cool at night. That was the problem with “green units” in London.

I presume that the claim that it doesn’t exchange the air and completely stops heat entering is merely the wishful thinking of someone who is designing without experience nor the ability to look ahead. It will probably win an architectural prize (for most expensive solution to an imaginary problem).

• #

These are the types of “homes” the Leftards want the sheeple to live in..and no cars so use public transport.

http://www.trueactivist.com/this-incredible-diy-tiny-home-only-costs-1200-to-build/

• #
RB

The solar cells still annoys me. People are dumping them on houses here in Adelaide but the cost of electricity for me is about 2/3 of the gas cost during winter, most of it heating.

In a place like Adelaide, the money could be better spent with a glass-house like roof and better insulation in the ceiling , especially with a solid brick home. A glass house here easily gets to over 20°C in winter on a sunny day and circulating that air through the house then blocking drafts and using heavy curtains, the house will stay comfortably warm overnight.

Not as good as thermostatted heating but at least we aren’t paying Chinese companies for something that we will regret buying.

• #
Turtle of WA

That’s not a home. It’s a humpy.

• #
Peter C

Here is a question that occurred to me recently. I am not sure why I had to thought of it before.

What is the cause of the fluctuations in the global temperature fro month to month and year to year?

One would think with all the homogenisation and averaging and weighting that goes on to produce a Global Average Temperature that all these fluctuations might be smoothed out. Yet the variability is quite large, more than 1C.

Is this in some way a measure of the uncertainty of the estimate? Could it be that the error bars, which are not often given are in fact a lot larger than we imagine.

If the fluctuations are in fact real, what is the cause?

• #
Peter C

• #
gai

USHCN temperature adjustments over time correlate almost perfectly with atmospheric CO2 rise over time. R^2=1 is a perfect correlation so an R^2= 0.98667 probably means the adjustments are made so the temperature data reflects the rise in CO2 even though other reasons are given to the public.

This correlation is for the adjustments made to the USA Historic Climate Network (USHCN). It would be interesting to see if a similar correlation happens with other data sets such as the BOM data.

• #
• #
Peter C

Thanks Ian,

I had not seen that! Partly answers my question . Still not sure about the fluctuations (noise),

• #

Peter

Chiefio periodically mutters about the absurdity of averaging averages but I don’t think he’s mustered the mutterings into a single post as yet. There are some in his GISS series as I recall

• #
bobl

Ian, Peter

One of the major flaws in Climate science is the assumption that an average is more stable than the parameter being averaged. The human experience is that averages are useful, that they express a expectation relative to experience. However this is not always true, a time average is an integral, and the integral of a function is NOT always more stable, consider say sines or cosines. You could say that the average of a sine is zero, but that is only correct for a multiple of a cycle – a special case.

GPS makes use of this characteristic, it is deliberately designed so that the integral (average) coordinate output is not stationary, and no amount of averaging will make it better – this is called selective availability and was introduced to prevent other countries flying their cruise missiles through the president’s window using the USAs own positioning system. SA can be turned on or off and precision of civilian GPS code can be degraded at will.

One of the processes that produces a non stationary integral is a random walk, that is where the next value is dependent on the previous value, so for example when sea level rise has occurred to a point then the next value is taken from that new baseline rather than a particular datum. You often hear the misuse of statistics where some nutter will say, the probability of Blah, Blah, Blah hottest years against the decadal average is blah – some small number. Except that they are assuming the the average is stationary, that the mean energy each year gets magically reset to the decadal average on Jan 1 each year, it doesn’t, the statistics of next year are no more or less than 50/50 against the previous year, the earth’s temperature isn’t reset to the decadal average for the next flip of the coin. You can’t use a fixed reference for the statistics because the fixed reference is imaginary, it doesn’t physically exist in a system that is represented by a random walk. Three hottest years in a row at the peak of a rise out of the LIA is no more than that of flipping 3 heads on a coin or 1 in 8.

So in answer to your question, the value fluctuates because the average is an average of a random walk.

• #
RB

I still have to get around to repeating the calculations as I might have made a mistake somewhere.

I looked at minimum temperatures of Richmond in Queensland (forgot why). I took the moving median of three months and then a moving linear fit to 12 months of data. An oscillation of about 11 years shows up. I didn’t check to see if it fitted the sunspot numbers and I still need to check that it wasn’t a cock up on my part.

The reason that I used the median is that one or two missing or mistakenly entered days can make a big difference if 10°C above or below the average but it will hardly make a difference to the median. If every day is a little warmer because the globe is a little warmer, it will show up in the median. I can’t see how what I did could have caused the oscillation in the rate of warming.

• #
Alfred

Eph. 6: 13-17
13 Wherefore take unto you the whole armour of God, that ye may be able to withstand in the evil day, and having done all, to stand .
14 Stand therefore, having your loins girt about with truth, and having on the breastplate of righteousness;
15 And your feet shod with the preparation of the gospel of peace;
16 Above all, taking the shield of faith, wherewith ye shall be able to quench all the fiery darts of the wicked.
17 And take the helmet of salvation, and the sword of the Spirit, which is the word of God:

• #
Peter C

Inspiring stuff Alfred! But how are we to interpret these verses from the Bibie in the context of the battle against climate change science?

• #
Alfred

Thank you for your kind response. I guess I should have started at verse 12 For we wrestle not against * flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places.

• #
KinkyKeith

Sounds quite a bit like what we are wrestling with at the moment.

No tangible or physical target; just people in high places wanting to take us along THEIR chosen path.

Because THEY will benefit.

BanKi, Mal, Julie, GHunt

KK

• #
Ross

KK
Do you think Turnbull would have got a message with the jeering and laughing during his speech yesterday at the NSW Liberals meeting when he said there were no factions in the Liberal Party?

• #
Another Ian

Ross,

The “Chosen Path” can’t be wrong so alter the data will likely apply

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KinkyKeith

I would have liked to have seen it.

Problem is he has had messages before but all he can remember are the Sacks of Gold at the end of the Green Rainbow.

Even if he gets turfed out right after locking us into say, 20 million a year for 5 years to the u n save the poor countries fund he will still be entitled to a spot at that u n for a couple of years.

Imagine the prestige, pomp and ceremony.

KK

• #
KinkyKeith

the link is below on scapers post

• #
Dave in the states

So in summary thus far:

Empirical observations indicate that climate sensitivity to Co2 is very small in practice.

In theory it was thought to be significant, but that was because of several errors in the mathematics and construction of the too overly simplified basic model.

When corrections are applied, it turns out; that even with feedbacks, the climate sensitivity to co2 is very small, to be almost insignificant-matching empirical data.

Climate of course changes, as it always has. There is a far greater of range of natural variation and very many complex and interactive natural forces effecting climate, with the sun being a primary driver. This of course is not useful to politicians who are “banking” on a human cause connection to drive their agenda’s-mainly a rationale for taxation of all kinds.

But let us assume for arguments sake, though, that climate is significantly sensitive to co2. It cannot be human caused co2. Human emitted co2 (even including China) is insignificant in the overall annual co2 budget of around few % points.

Moreover, more Co2 is good. It increases crop yields the world over, helping to feed children everywhere.

So I say (and not sarcastically) to go ahead and put another log on the fire, enjoy that Sunday drive, drive the extra mile or thousands, don’t go to the trouble of using public transport, buy and drive that powerful sports car or SUV, exhale as much co2 as you can when riding your bike and working out, and not feel a smidgen of guilt about any of it. Know that your helping to feed and cloth poor children everywhere, and you helping to grow your nations economy which is historically far more effective to progress than re-distribution schemes.

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KinkyKeith

Very well put Dave.

KK

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PeterK

Totally agree with you Dave in the states. As a matter of fact, I’m leaving tomorrow to visit my son who lives in London Ontario. I live in Saskatoon Saskatchewan, so the round trip and excursions while visiting will have me put on about 9,000 kms on my Ford F-150. Lots of CO2 to help the environment.

As an aside, I’m going to meet my two new grand daughters (identical twins) who were born on September 2.

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KinkyKeith

Congrats

KK

• #

Dave,

Sadly the current PM of Australia is now a warmulonian drivel monkey. Visit stoptunbull.com. Learn.

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TdeF

Still fuming over the removal of our elected Prime Minister by his trusted colleagues he had promoted to high places.

Julia Gillard went to the election promising “no carbon tax in a government I lead”. She won the election and immediately brought in a carbon tax. She lied.

Then Tony Abbott won a landslide result with his unchanging promise to remove the carbon tax and he did so against the odds, fighting an undemocratic Green/Labor senate.

Now he has been removed by internal party scheming by the very person who has been uncompromising in promising a carbon tax. So once again a democratically elected parliament will be given a carbon tax no one wants and against which everyone voted. As for a Trading Scheme, that is an overseas Carbon Tax run by Merchant Bankers for their own benefit. Surely Malcolm is totally compromised by his previous employment by Goldman Sachs?

This is not democracy. Give us back the man we overwhelmingly elected and the policies on which he was so clear. We do not want Malcolm Turnbull’s rubbish carbon tax. The world is not warming and the ‘science’ of man made Global Warming is, in the words of Tony Abbott, ‘crap’. He is right.

• #
scaper...

I believe history will repeat. Seen this?

Been pretty well down for the last three weeks or so. Now, I’m up for the fight! We rolled Turnbull once, I reckon it’s time to organise it again.

Hehehehehe

• #
TdeF

Andrew Bolt’s comment was “what have they done?”. This was illegitimate Malcolm, our PM technically, in by five expensive votes from former ministers including himself and trying to sell himself to the rank and file as their leader. So he absurdly claimed no backroom deals, no beholden to business, no factions and internal warfare, no treachery? Obviously absurd. So groans, laughter, derision and flat contradiction even from the party faithful while the elected Prime Minister sits in the audience.

Wait till the Labor/Green/ABC/SBS machinery starts work on the Liberal’s version of Julia Gillard, a self centred merchant banker from Point Piper, now to be hated by all sides of politics except the Greens. The media will have little to do, so they will hold their fire. Malcolm in the middle is destroying himself with performances like this. Communicator? Another very egotistical very rich waffler like Rudd. At least Palmer formed his own party to push his interests and voted against the carbon tax.

As for the idea that Malcolm will garner more votes than he loses, more new Liberal memberships than resignations, how insulting? Your vote does not matter. Your opinion does not matter because if you disagree with Malcolm, the Liberal party does not need you.

It is not just the extreme right which is against the Carbon Tax and illegal migration and worldwide extremism, it is most Australians. If it gets bad, the Nationals will revolt. Of course Malcolm desperately wants his carbon trading, run by his old business partners. It looks like his entire reason for being in parliament. So self interest and business interests over National interest. Not a great look in any politician, let alone a self appointed PM.

• #

There is a small matter of the fact that Abbott campaigned like a broken record on immigration and carbon fraud. He won with a record majority.

Anyone who suggests most Australians want anything other than Abbott’s policies on these matters is basically a denier.

• #
bobl

Tdef
I wrote to my member the day it happened and said simply

Oh… My… God… What have you done?

• #

Scaper,

Turnbull led a scare campaign based on the biased monthly opinion polls of 1,200 Labor/Green voters, at the most that is a total of 36,000 opinions over 30 months on who should lead the Liberal Party from people who would never vote conservative.

Turnbull busted all out to have the spill before the Canning bi-election because he knew the results would favour Mr. Abbott and shore up the resolve of the LNP.

Turnbull played on the individual fears of self interst from MP’s who thought they’d lose their seats if they kept Mr. Abbott.

How is that representative of the 9,000,000 voters in Australia the vast majority of whom voted for an Abbott led government.

We can not let Turnbull win because he can not be allowed to claim a mandate to screw us over.

We do have several options at the moment – my favourite is a vote for the Australian Liberty Alliance, because if Turnbull gets in there will only be two options left – with or without vaseline.

• #
Glen Michel

Paid up memberAgree with the manifesto.- mostly!

• #
bobl

I don’t

The internal structure is top down, the executive have all the power over the ESGs that is ESG are “Soviets” like they were in the soviet union. The Manifesto needs to be altered to make it clear that the executive represent the membership, not as it is now where the membership (ESGs) support the executive. Look at the hoops you have to jump through just to be eligible to vote for the executive, in fact the executive must APPROVE WHICH MEMBERS CAN ELECT THEM.

The ALA is not a democratic organisation, which is tolerant of dissent, it’s communist in nature until it becomes so, it won’t have me as a member. Having said that I might vote for them should their policies align with me, I might vote green too if their policies were less disastrous (and I have done before the AGW crapola), but I won’t fund the ALA until they reform to have the executive represent the membership – all of them.

• #
AndyG55

At the moment, Shorten is looking quite a bit less “far-left” than Turnbull.

At least we know he is controlled by the unions, ..

Turnbull, on the other hand is controlled by his ego.

• #
bobl

Scaper,
To mobilise the electorate like “The day the electorate went nuts” when Mal was ousted needs a leak on the Paris intention and Jones, Bolt and other notable luminaries to rev up the electorate handing out Liberal HQs phone number like last time. Since Michael Smith isn’t at 4BC any more it’ll be that bit harder. The Coalition has clearly forgotten about that day!

I don’t know whether the circumstances will arise to mobilise a grass roots revolt like that prior to Paris since it needs a clear event hook (The approval of Rudd’s ETS being the catalyst last time). We can only hope.

• #
scaper...

I found the leaks were very effective. Utilise the useful idiots (MSM).

We need a bit of insider agitation. Missed a call from a certain Senator today. I’ll ring him back tomorrow to gauge the mood.

• #
bobl

Let me know, mods, send scaper my email please

• #
el gordo

Scaper

We are heading in the direction of Greek democracy, which is not necessarily a bad thing.

If we are to have another spill, then Abbott and Turnbull should both stand aside for Andrew Robb, with Peter Dutton as deputy.

Hunt should be sacked before Paris and replaced by Dennis Jensen, while Bishop and Morrison can stay where they are for the time being.

• #
clive

No way that the 54 “Traitors” should be left where they are. Julie Bishop should be run out of town along with the rest of them.You never reward “Traitor”ever.

• #
AndyG55

Dutton.. that weak-kneed sickophant.. NO THANKS !!

• #
AndyG55

“replaced by Dennis Jensen”

Jensen backed Turnbull !!!

• #
Yonniestone

Scaper what do you make of this Lord Monckton Skype interview on 18/09/15 where at the 15 minute mark he predicts Tony Abbott could be reinstated as PM?

I hope this prediction is as accurate as Monckton’s first.

• #
Yonniestone

Forgot to add, he will be reinstated before COP21 Paris.

• #
Sean McHugh

I believe history will repeat. Seen this?

Best political news I’ve seen for a long time.

Now, I’m up for the fight! We rolled Turnbull once, I reckon it’s time to organise it again.

• #

Andrew Bolt asks – “What have they done?”

The answer is simple, the Liberals listened to the lame scream meeja instead of the coalition voters. A Turnbull led coalition will lose the next election. The LSM commissioned the push-polling, the LSM publish those polls, the LSM furiously commented on those polls and Turnbull’s filthy fifty four fell for it. The Liberal MPs have no grounds to complain now about the coalition voter’s burning rage. They were warned this would happen at Turnbull’s previous attempt at toppling Tony.

The fools thought the good opinion of the media was important. They never questioned why the media couldn’t wait till the next election to destroy Tony Abbott. They have miscalculated badly. Under Abbott, the incestuous relationship between politicians and their media masters was dying, but the filthy fifty four thought the media still had the power to tell the public what opinions they were allowed to have. Now they find the media they obeyed can’t stop the building rage of the coalition voter.

The media know you can’t polish a Turnbull, but they are desperately trying to roll him in glitter. Their push-polling claims that swinging voters prefer Turnbull, but they don’t matter. Swinging voters are not going to donate campaign funds, letter-drop, door-knock or man the polling stations for a Turnbull led coalition. Nor will coalition voters. The Liberals are now realising you can’t pick up a Turnbull by the clean end.

The questions now facing the coalition voter are -
Rule by voters or rule by the lame scream meeja?
Science or side?
Principle or side?

“Malcolm Turnbull” is the wrong answer to each of those questions.

• #
Dennis

Booed at a rugby league match a week ago, booed and jeered at the NSW Liberal Party Conference where Tony Abbott was cheered.

It is not too late to reverse the disastrous change of leader.

• #

There is no hope of Turnbull winning back the core coalition voters. A year of waffle and appeasement won’t erase 6 years of leaking, undermining and white-anting. The only way the coalition can win the next election is for the coalition voter to be sure that the party is, or is about to become, Turnbull free. Some options -

1. The coalition voters telegraph their decision to vote Labor in the seats of Wentworth, Curtin, Sturt, Flinders and Mackellar and vote [1] Australian Liberty Alliance in the senate.

2. The Liberal party apologises to their voter, re-instates Tony Abbott and most of Turnbull and his quislings agree not to contest their seats.

3. Tony Abbott and his supporters join the nationals after the Turnbull betrayal in Paris.

There is no “Turnbull remains PM” option for a coalition win.

That said, I believe the media will campaign hard to keep him in the job they put him in. I believe they may also campaign hard for him to win the next election. A coalition loss at the next election is a grave threat to the media. While the majority of the lame scream meeja would prefer a Labor/Green socialist alliance government, the one thing they really want is that no matter which party is in, that they remain under media control. A coalition loss would mean the coalition lost because they submitted to media control. This would send a message to Liberal politicians the media are desperate they don’t hear – “Don’t listen to the media, listen to your coalition voters. The media’s opinions don’t represent the views of coalition voters and they never will.”

• #
bobl

I think simply that Wentworth should be targeted to topple Malcolm himself, This would be the most cost effective way to correct the wrong. That means there needs to be a good alternate conservative candidate there and a grass roots revolt undertaken there – door stops, mail campaign by independent conservatives, an “I vote Coalition, but not in Wentworth campaign”.

Even if we were able to split the vote and elect Labor in Wentworth, the rest of the country could carry the day. Shorten going could help, can’t even think about Shorten as PM.

• #

Targeting Wentworth early and hard would be a good idea. If coalition voters there had all visited “stopturnbull.com” he would lose his seat. But most important is for other coalition MPs to be well aware he is going to lose his seat.

As to Shorten getting in, he would be effectively paralysed, trapped between opposition leader Tony Abbott in the house and the ALA in the senate.

• #
Andrew McRae

The countdown continues. Only eight more days until we find out if Monckton’s other prediction will come true.

Abbot and Harper.

• #
gai

As Stalin said “The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything.”

If you have voting machines it has already been proved they have a ‘backdoor’
Voting Machine Manufacturer Diebold Charged Over Bribery… And “Worldwide Pattern Of Criminal Conduct”

If you have people counting the votes, well that can be gotten around easily too. I knew a communist who registered as a Republican and worked as a poll worker counting votes. Luckily he was honest.

• #
gai

Dang, my comments hung in moderation. Wish people wouldn use a banned word in their URL!

• #
Andrew McRae

I had the same thing happen to me at 7:30 this morning in my reply to richard at 1.1.1.1
But I have not raised any fuss over it because I should have seen it coming and I am in no rush.

• #
Rod Stuart

It’s not looking good. If the Conservative Party can’t produce a majority, it leaves room for a Liberal/NDP coalition (which would be like an ALP/Greens coalition in Australian politics).

• #
bobl

Coalitions can be formed, but it can work out that a split vote can allow preferences to spill the wrong way. In a split contest you must pay attention to the preferences. In this way the Nats for example could spill their coalition partner from the top job.

• #
Peter Crawford

Hello again from Old North Wales, Australian chums. Wales have just taken a 3 point lead in the rugby union world cup. Australia will likely still win but our national anthem beats yours hands down. Fact. The science is settled.

• #
Glen Michel

A frustrating and well fought match from both sides.Good luck against the Boks.

• #
Stephan

I’ve been up all night indoctrinating myself with secular leftists ideology. I feel like I could take a legion of right-wingers to the cleaners.

• #
el gordo

Forget the politics, do you believe human induced CO2 causes warming?

• #
Stephan

It is a hypothesis any reasonable person would conclude is supported by the evidence.

• #
James Murphy

Looks like another ‘magic 8 ball’ answer from someone who is not inclined to investigate the subject themselves.

Which evidence do you refer to?

• #
bobl

So you think its “reasonable” that a CO2 will in the next 100 years cause more than three times MORE warming relative to CO2 rise than in the last 100 years in spite of the fact that the relationship of CO2 to temperature is an approximate log law?

Last 150 years temp to CO2 roughly 1.3 deg C per doubling of which the IPCC says only half say 0.7 was CO2 related, while the Stephan’s of the world are claiming up to 6 degrees by 2100 now only 85 years away (or nearly 8 degrees per doubling)?

You assert that a reasonable person knowing this would expect 3-6 degrees by 2100 ?

Somehow Stephan, I think along the way you lost your reason

• #
bobl

Oops that’s not very clear. Let me try again

Assuming 50% of the temp rise was CO2 related since 1850 (165 years ago) and that there has been about 0.7 degrees rise, or 1.3 degrees per doubling since then. We can therefore assume from the IPCC’s own analysis that only 0.4 deg C (50%) of that 165 year warming trend is CO2 related.

But the Stephans of the world think that in the next 165 years instead of seeing 0.4 degrees of CO2 related rise like we saw in the last 165 years instead we’ll see 5 – 9 degrees. ( 3-6 degrees in the next 85 years). Even though CO2 energy trapping power decreases with concentration!

Stephan thinks that a reasonable person knowing this would expect 5-9 degrees in the next 165 years instead of the 0.4 degrees we saw in the last 165 years

Hmm, that’s better

• #

My definition of “unreasonable” is anyone believing he can predict the future, whether the climate or anything else.

The correct belief is not to assume CO2 caused any of the warming in the past without proof, and there is no scientific proof.

Let’s assume one believes the theory that CO2 is an important greenhouse gas, and that theory is proven to be correct:

– You still would not not know HOW MUCH warming the increase from 300 to 400 ppmv actually caused, and

– You still would not know HOW MUCH warming an increase from 400 to 500 ppmv would cause in the future.

Both could be too small to measure, if feedbacks were negative.

• #

95% of best climate models vis-a-vis Antarctic sea ice are wrong

Antarctic ice floes extended further than ever recorded this southern winter, confounding the world’s most-trusted climate models.

“It’s not expected,” says Professor John Turner, a climate expert at the British Antarctic Survey. “The world’s best 50 models were run and 95% of them have Antarctic sea ice decreasing over the past 30 years.” http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/09/why-is-antarctic-sea-ice-at-record-levels-despite-global-warming

……………………………………………………

However, Antarctic ice overall appears to be warming/melting:
5-18-2015 https://www.bas.ac.uk/data/our-data/publication/the-antarctic-peninsulas-retreating-ice-shelves/

• #
James Murphy

Do ‘right-wingers’ travel in legions? What sort of cleaning do they need, and why are they unable to take themselves to said cleaners? Do you have appropriate means of transport for this?

I dot think anyone can argue with your generosity of spirit when offering to take people somewhere, you must be a great asset to your local community with such selfless acts.

• #

Stephan,

So, “… indoctrinate myself with secular leftist ideology” is an admission you’re not committed and are adopting a belief system you have no faith in merely for attention and approval of peers and personal gain.

Sock puppet.

• #
Ceetee

You would Stephan because that is what drives people into the maw of the enemy cannons time and time again. That is where the expression ‘cannon fodder’ comes from.
To quote Pink Floyd “Forward he cried from the rear….”. You are just a foot soldier for someone else’s dogmatic beliefs.

• #

“Forward he cried from the rear….”

Ironic that the title of the song these lyrics are from is Us And Them, from an album which spent 741 weeks on the Billboard albums chart.

Tony.

• #
Ceetee

You’re on it Tony. Soundtrack of a generation.

• #
Ceetee

… and so damn pertinent.

• #
Victor Ramirez

Heroic performance by Wallabies to defeat Wales 15-6 in RWC. Never say die, continue to support your mates no matter the odds.

• #
• #
KinkyKeith

ref No 14

• #

ABC News this morning reporting on a “Godzilla El Nino” and even followed it up with “that might sound extreme but the CSIRO warns this may be the worst El Nino ever”.

So we now have a new measuring system in climate science. Its based on 1950′s Japanese movie monsters or Kaju.

So the Kaju scale would, I imagine have GodZilla at the top and works its way down through to Mothra and Gammera etc.

Climate science has added so much to science, I dont know where we would be with out. Probably still farting about with nonsense like observational evidence and double blind trials I guess.

• #
ianl8888

… observational evidence and double blind trials …

Too messy, too long to wait for and not needed to get the right answer (may even get the wrong answer)

• #

True.

I always thought it showed more front than a rat with a gold tooth to produce a report based on modelling and have a section called “considerations for policy makers”. But it just shows you how out of date my thinking is.

• #
• #

Thats an interesting question because of recent announcements.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-29/sharks-and-other-predators-help-prevent-climate-change/6813042

So Im pretty worried now about the science behind the sharknado phenomena.

If less sharks means more tornados then it seriously calls in to question the reality of sharknados.

• #
Andrew McRae

Recent reports that Australian Research Council scientists have based key advice on sharknadoes are scurrilous rumours and should not be repeated by the media. Such rumours have the potential to undermine public confidence in sharknadoes.

• #
James Murphy

I noticed there was an interview with Dr Andrew Watkins, the climate prediction manager from the Bureau of Meteorology on ‘our ABC’, explaining how they come up with their figures to provide predictions up to 9 months ahead. I notice the mention of “40 million’ pieces of information more than once

What was surprising, was that in the whole 5 minute interview, there was very little (if any) in the way of claims of doom and gloom based on how terrible humans are. I am not sure how that got past the editorial team.

• #

They interviewed someone from CSIRO in this announcement who I was amazed to hear saying “they were still working on the details of the relationship between global warming (yes they called it that) and El Nino”. Which was interesting because I thought all that simple science was settled.

• #

James

Did they clarify whether that “40 million pieces” is used or ignored?

• #
James Murphy

well, they did seem to indicate that they gather 40 million bits of data and throw them all into a ‘physics based model’…

I’m curious to know what sort of post-processing they do to the output data before publishing predictions.

• #
bobl

This would be the similar to the Physics based model that Dr Evans is in the middle of tearing limb from limb. That Physics model kinda reminds me of the black night from Monty Python and the Holy Grail

• #
bobl

knight… Danged autocorrect

• #
James Murphy

Perhaps this “physics based model” is somewhat like the movies and tv shows which are ‘based on a true story”, where some real features are present, but a lot of the content has been changed to improve the storyline and continuity…

Monty Python never gets old, no matter how many times I see it.

The hysteria over the weather makes me think of the big disaster that was this reported sighting of “Nimbo Cumulus”

• #

James

The Pope is going to try to ban humour next because it is on our side

• #

Been a long week – I forgot homogenised

• #
Jonesy

Mother nature appears to be not co-operating. Warm sea surface temps from BN south around to the Kimberley not playing ball with the cooler waters in the Qld tropics. If there is opposing action from the Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Nino..IOD wins!

Methinks an interesting summer ahead for the SE of the continent.

• #
Andrew McRae

Notice it is only Godzilla which enters into the scale. His onscreen teammate The Cosmic Monster does not get mentioned because as we all know, loyal citizen, there is nothing cosmic about the causes of climate change.

It’s quite appropriate for the climatebaggers that they should use Godzilla as an analogy for a strong el Nino, as both are the result of several atomic bombs’ worth of energy accumulating in the Pacific.

• #
Rod Stuart

Climate science has added so much to science, I dont know where we would be with out. Probably still farting about with nonsense like observational evidence and double blind trials I guess.

Safety Guy you might have come across a solution to the vehicle pollution issue.

• #

HA! Thats excellent.

• #
Andrew McRae

Now they reckon that means less cyclones over this summer!

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-12/fewer-cyclones-expected-this-season-over-northern-australia/6840094
Australia-wide, the BoM also predicted fewer cyclones than the average number, which is 11.

AGW, which is supposed to warm faster at the poles than at the equator and therefore reduces the latitudinal temperature gradient, was supposed to cause more/bigger cyclones.
An El Niño rating as “Godzilla” on the “accumulated Hiroshima bombs of energy” scale will increase the latitudinal temperature gradient and is expected to lead to less cyclones.
So these are compatible predictions.

However a lesser latitudinal temperature gradient should mean less powerful work can be done by the weather so AGW was never going to increase cyclone frequency or intensity, and in fact hasn’t.
Also please remember the Elvis/Kenobi cyclone boundary.

Of course it could be that latitudinal temperature gradient by itself is not enough to model cyclone frequency within the specific region of North/East Australia.

• #

I’ve found that our new drought declaration decider is

which is part of the Bureau of Magic’s AWAP project.

So I put in our co-ordinates to see. And for here it seems to qualify for that well known expression “good enough for government work” in that the results seem to be inversely proportional to rainfall.

Our best rain area (where we actually got a dam bywashed) shows us as in a 1:20 drought. Where we haven’t grown grass yet from a burn almost three years ago qualifies as 1:10.

It has been in the news lately, as droughted shires in western Queensland like Quilpie and Barcoo didn’t qualify under the new system. Due, I seem to have heard, to a lack of data points which didn’t restrict the production of “outcomes”.

I’m trying to find what “official rain gauges” there are around here.

• #
el gordo

‘Cooling in the 1970’s was due to a stronger solar signal increasing positive NAO/AO, which then cools the AMO (and Arctic), and increases La Nina, both which increase continental interior rainfall and cause further surface cooling.

‘Much of the surface warming from 1995-2005 is the corollary of that, with declining solar forcing increasing negative NAO/AO, warming the AMO (and Arctic), and reducing continental interior precipitation, further adding to the global surface mean temperature.’

Ulric Lyons

• #
Neville

In the 2010 BBC extended interview Phil Jones had this to say from point G.

G – There is a debate over whether the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) was global or not. If it were to be conclusively shown that it was a global phenomenon, would you accept that this would undermine the premise that mean surface atmospheric temperatures during the latter part of the 20th Century were unprecedented?

“There is much debate over whether the Medieval Warm Period was global in extent or not. The MWP is most clearly expressed in parts of North America, the North Atlantic and Europe and parts of Asia. For it to be global in extent the MWP would need to be seen clearly in more records from the tropical regions and the Southern Hemisphere. There are very few palaeoclimatic records for these latter two regions.

Of course, if the MWP was shown to be global in extent and as warm or warmer than today (based on an equivalent coverage over the NH and SH) then obviously the late-20th century warmth would not be unprecedented. On the other hand, if the MWP was global, but was less warm that today, then current warmth would be unprecedented.

We know from the instrumental temperature record that the two hemispheres do not always follow one another. We cannot, therefore, make the assumption that temperatures in the global average will be similar to those in the northern hemisphere.” End of point G.

So here’s my response, we have the PAGES 2K study and the Calvo et al study that both show a warmer Med WP in Antarctica and S OZ, plus there are studies from S America and NZ that support this as well. So using Jone’s concession we can say that there is nothing unprecedented or unusual about the slight 0.8 C of warming since 1850. And this slight warming comes at the end of a minor ice age. Big deal. BTW here’s the full Jones interview, well worth a read.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8511670.stm

• #
pat

Bolt’s Blog: Turnbull jeered
And to complete the humiliation, as Jason Morrison notes: “When a Prime Minister doesn’t get a standing ovation from his own Party but the bloke he rolled @TonyAbbottMHR does… there’s a message.”
What have they done? …

on Oct 4, Peter Fitzsimons wrote a piece for SMH – NRL Grand Final 2015: A cheat-sheet for Malcolm Turnbull, in which he advised:
“The crowd will likely boo. Don’t worry about it. It is just what Australian crowds do to Prime Ministers. And your boos, if they occur, will be a lot less than what Tony Abbott received on the same occasion last year. Some people reckon that, back then, some of the booing was so loud it had to be coming all the way from Point Piper. But that’s another story.”

of course, this piece was not for Turnbull, but for Fairfax readers, to pre-empt any personalising of the boos for Turnbull. Fitzsimons needn’t have bothered. even now, if you search Turnbull booed NRL, u get more Abbott booed at NRL final results.

i swear, watching TV in Brisbane, when Turnbull was introduced on stage and was booed, i got silence, which i commented on before switching channels til the presentation was over. whether the booing was simply muffled to a point where my TV volume wasn’t picking it up, i can’t say.

now we have the jeering at the NSW Liberal Party Conference. the video at Sky News originally did not have the Abbott bits that are now in the video below, and the claim by an anonymous Liberal, according to Sky’s David Lipson, that the jeering was what could be expected from the Liberal hard right, has now been removed. also removed is the jeering following the no “backroom deals” claim which was there when i first viewed it.

(what i noted after viewing the original video)
Sky’s David Lipson says he spoke to a couple of Liberals about the jeering & both played it down, one said it was part of the “healing” process, the other said it was to be expected from the hard right. obviously Lipson didn’t consider speaking to one of those doing the jeering.

VIDEO: 10 Oct: Sky News: Turnbull ridiculed at NSW Liberal conference
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has been publicly ridiculed by a group NSW Liberals at the party’s state conference.
He was met by howls of laughter for suggesting the party is not run by factions and backroom deals.
Despite the embarrassment, Mr Turnbull met the response with a smile on his face…
Mr Turnbull also heaped praise on ousted Prime Minister Tony Abbott but failed to convince the loyalists in the room.
http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/10/10/turnbull-ridiculed-at-liberal-conference.html

• #

Pat

See #10.1.1.1.1

• #
toorightmate

If you hum a tune which is slightly off key to the tune of the Green/Left, then you are being divisive.

• #

Thats encouraging to see. I watched the video and Malcolm even allowed his body language to do the talking when he rubbed his nose after saying the party was not run by backroom deals.

Malcolm is a slimy character. The mere fact that he regards himself as more representative of Australians generally than a “bloke” like Tony Abbott says it all. He simply cannot accept that its a loud minority of pseudo intellectual lefties that think the genuine Aussie is no longer the face of this country. Worse still he is ashamed of genuine Australians because he feels cheapened by anything not reflective of his class or social group.

• #
pat

Another Ian – have noted the earlier comments.

coups can be, and often are, reversed.
how about demanding Turnbull resign and Tony Abbott be reinstated?

the coup was engineered with the help of the MSM/pollsters.

mid-August Faifax-Ipsos poll was the last time the public were told who coalition voters preferred as leader and they chose Abbott over Turnbull, 33 to 25, but only Fairfax bothered to include this fact in its coverage.

Bloomberg & other MSM spun that poll as, for example, “Malcolm Turnbull three times more popular than Abbott in polls” (Jason Scott, Bloomberg)

then we had the 3 false polls immediately prior to the Canning by-election – Fairfax-Ipsos, plus 2 Galaxy polls for NewsCorp (one for Daily Telegraph & one in WA which only sampled 500-plus potential voters). ALL THREE WRONGLY PREDICTED A 10 PERCENT SWING AGAINST THE GOVT (WHAT A CONSENSUS? WHAT A COINCIDENCE?), and got massive MSM coverage.

Fairfax writer predicted pre-poll votes would be worse for Andrew Hastie because Tony Abbott had been leader when they voted.
however:

Guardian: Canning postal votes show change in Liberal leadership did not help Hastie
The pre-poll votes, most of which were submitted before the change in Liberal leadership to Malcolm Turnbull, show only a modest swing of 5.6% to Labor

there was a 6.4% swing to Labor overall.

THE MSM ALL SPUN THAT TONY ABBOTT LOST HIS POSITION BECAUSE OF THE BAD POLLS!
TO A MAN WHO HAD WORSE POLLS FOR LONGER WHEN HE WAS LEADER OF THE PARTY AND WHO WAS LESS POPULAR THAN ABBOTT IN THE LATEST PRE-COUP POLL?
MAKES SENSE?

finally, much was made of the Telegraph’s anonymously-sourced story that Abbott was about to drop 6 or more members of the Cabinet in a reshuffle. to this day political & MSM hacks ponder/speculate over who leaked this story. lol. what if no-one leaked it and the anti-Abbott Newscorp faction (considerable in size) simply made it up?

• #

Methinks that the difference between this and Rudd-Gillard-Rudd might be that alarm bells might be ringing in Liberal headquarters right now rather than in say six months time

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Ceetee

Dream on mate. Abbott has left the building, We only get our say once in the lifetime of a toddler. Everything else that happens may as well happen on the surface of another planet.

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Ceetee

First the dream and then the awakening

• #

And I’ll point out that he’s still there – on the back bench

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pat

a plea to the Liberal Party – tell Malcolm Turnbull to stay away from Beenleigh:

Queensland has already had its own self-described “media tart” in Peter Beattie. we don’t need another in the current PM.
the week where Turnbull insinuated himself into the Dally M Awards, the AFL and NRL finals and got headlines for a tweet on the Wallabies win over England was more than enough for now.

but this is ridiculous – PM Turnbull will come all the way to Logan’s Beenleigh to open the little Town Square that has taken the best part of a year to construct (Chinese workers would have completed it in six weeks). it has created traffic havoc, worsened by faulty street lights which now cause traffic to pile up all around the square (public have been asked to avoid the area while the lights are programmed properly!)
it sits in front of the huge regional Court House and the public believe potential criminals will be the only people to use the Square! above all, outgoing Mayor, the non-politically-partisan Pam Parker, is incrediby popular (despite the fiasco building this Town Square) so should be front and centre of this opening!

stay away, PM Turnbull.

11 Oct: Courier Mail: Markets, music and improvements to traffic lights coming as part of the new Beenleigh Town Square
by Andrew Dawson, Albert & Logan News
The traffic lights causing angst for motorists in the Beenleigh CBD will be monitored this month ahead of expected alterations.
There has been an avalanche of complaints about long delays caused by the lights, which have been switched on next to the new Town Square on City Rd…
***The Town Square opened to the public last Wednesday but will be officially opened by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull on November 6…
http://www.couriermail.com.au/questnews/logan/markets-music-and-improvements-to-traffic-lights-coming-as-part-of-the-new-beenleigh-town-square/story-fni9r0nh-1227560089655

Facebook Albert & Logan News: Oct 2:
Malcolm Turnbull will open the new Beenleigh Town Square on November 6…
Ant Berrill: Lets throw a sandwich at the old man.
Pauline Sheppard: Let’s hope he can get through the traffic lights and find somewhere to park so he’s there on time. Oh that’s right, that’s just for everyone else, he’ll have a driver to drop him off
Brian Amos: why turnbull ? why not pam parker ?
Liz Banks: Quick,hide all the knives. Back stabbing turncoat is coming.

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pat

11 Oct: UK Telegraph: Christopher Booker: Judges plan to outlaw climate change ‘denial’
A semi-secret, international conference of top judges proposed to make illegal any opinion that contradicted climate change
We might think that a semi-secret, international conference of top judges, held in the highest courtroom in Britain, to propose that it should be made illegal for anyone to question the scientific evidence for man-made global warming, was odd enough to be worthy of front-page coverage…
But only a series of startling posts by a sharp-eyed Canadian blogger, Donna Laframboise (on Nofrakkingconsensus), have alerted us to what a bizarre event this judicial gathering turned out to be (the organisers even refused to give her the names of those who attended)…
The fact that it could be seriously proposed in the highest courtroom in the land that the law should now be used to suppress any further debate on what has become one of the most contentious issues in the history of science (greeted with applause from the distinguished legal audience) speaks volumes about the curious psychological state to which the great global warming scare has reduced so many of the prominent figures who today exercise power and influence over the life of our Western societies…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/11924776/Judges-plan-to-outlaw-climate-change-denial.html

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David-of-Cooyal in Oz

Thanks for that Pat. That such a meeting was even considered in the UK is frightening. That funding came from UNEP sort of surprised me, but also terrified me. However I’m a fan of Donna Laframboise, and her involvement gives me at least some hope.
Cheers,
Dave B

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diogenese2

Pat, Robin Guernier has put this event in context. Effectively it is wishful thinking by a deluded activist – all be it somewhat more sophisticated than that of the George Mason 20.

https://ipccreport.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/notes-on-sands-lecture_ty.pdf

He refers back to the actual UNFCC agreement of 1992 and, interestingly points out that the 2C target was never agreed by the Cancun COP but was retrospectively “recognized”.

I bet that doesn’t come up in Paris.

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pat

diogenese2 -

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pat

the capital “T” Truth!

11 Oct: NYT: The Editorial Board: Teaching the Truth about Climate Change
Misinformation about climate change is distressingly common in the United States — a 2014 Yale study found that 35 percent of Americans believe that global warming is caused mostly by natural phenomena rather than human activity, and 34 percent think there is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether global warming is even happening. (In fact, an overwhelming majority of scientists agree that climate change is here and that it is caused by humans.) One way to stop the spread of this misinformation is to teach children about climate change.
The Next Generation Science Standards offer one guide for doing so.
Developed by a committee of scientists and education experts and honed by teams in 26 states before their release in 2013, the standards set forth a variety of scientific practices and concepts for students from kindergarten through 12th grade to master…
Children today stand to inherit a climate severely changed by the actions of previous generations. They need to understand how those changes came about, how to mitigate them and how to prevent more damage to the planet. Schools can start by adopting science standards that deal extensively with human-caused climate change and that accurately reflect the scientific consensus.

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Dennis

One of the biggest ever branch stacking scams, Victoria Labor, Shorten & Conroy feature;

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pat

anyone who has listened to Vanstone’s ABC program won’t be surprised by the following. creepy Christoff talks of the public’s climate anxiety!

audio: 7mins34secs: to be aired Monday 4pm:

12 Oct: ABC Counterpoint with Amanda Vanstone: Turnbull and Climate: Where’s he headed?
Malcolm Turnbull is toeing the party line on climate.
But while the new PM’s assurances have assuaged the party room, what about public expectations of a more progressive approach to the issue?
Many wonder as the 2016 election approaches, whether the PM will change his stance on climate.
Some warn that he should return to the views he espoused before he took on the top job or pay the price at the ballot box.
Guest: Associate Professor Peter Christoff, Political scientist and Associate Professor in the Department of Geography, University of Melbourne

Vanstone surely knew how zealous Christoff is on CAGW – who chooses her guests for Counterpoint? probably her, i imagine.

18 Oct: The Conversation: If he wants to win an election, Turnbull should go back to his old self on climate
by Peter Christoff, Associate Professor, School of Geography, University of Melbourne
It is widely believed that Turnbull’s latest climate policy comments reflect backroom deals done to secure leadership support from the Liberal Party’s right wing and the government’s coalition partners, the Nationals.
As a result, Turnbull now faces tension about how he balances competing demands from inside and outside government. Is he the party’s leader or its factional hostage? Should he satisfy his colleagues’ demands ahead of those of the public?
He also has to counter enduring suspicion about his autocratic tendencies, generated during his reign as opposition leader. And he cannot underestimate the hostility of the Liberal Party’s deposed neoconservatives for his “small-l liberal” views – climate being a key case in point…
If, without explanation, he abandons his previous views in an attempt to satisfy the faceless men of the Liberal Party, he will disappoint a public that has invested him with high hopes for change…
What’s more, backroom deals to remain conservative on climate change don’t square with the public’s expectations and appetite for stronger, well-justified policies on global warming.
The gap between public opinion about climate action and the Abbott government’s climate policies increased during its two years in office…
For Turnbull not to recognise that the views of the climate deniers championed by Abbott are increasingly marginal would be a mistake…
http://theconversation.com/if-he-wants-to-win-an-election-turnbull-should-go-back-to-his-old-self-on-climate-47703

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el gordo

Ralph Ellis on the cause of ice ages and CO2 is not the driver.

http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri15/ralph_ellis_oct15.html

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pat

ABC: Rally opposing detention of asylum seekers draws HUGE crowds in Canberra’s CBD
More than 1,000 people have rallied in Canberra’s CBD in support of asylum seeker…

HUGE is “hundreds”:

ABC: Asylum seeker rally
Hundreds of people have rallied in Canberra today in support of asylum seekers being held in detention.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-11/asylum-seeker-rally/6845038

GLOBALISTS AT THE COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS, SEPT 30. READ ALL:

audio/transcript: CFR: A Global Response to the Mediterranean Migration Crisis
Speakers: Peter D. Sutherland
Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for International Migration; Former Director General, World Trade Organization…chairman of the Trilateral Commission, chairman of the London School of Economics and Political Science, chairman of Goldman Sachs International…
SUTHERLAND: …I suppose that I would like to think, although it’s an exaggeration, that a leitmotiv for me in political life has been the concept of integration and the antagonism which I feel towards nationalism…
So the old issue of nationalism and national sovereignty was there from the beginning. And the Global Forum on Migration and Development was an attempt to create a non-binding mechanism for communication and dialogue between countries of origin, destination, and transit, and to try and begin a dialogue about a subject that was an inevitable concomitant of the whole issue of globalization, which is really what I’ve been talking about—a globalization which brought into play regional integration, free movement of people in Europe…
And we moved to a time where a rolling disaster—and I’m not going to go into the causes of the rolling disaster in Syria, Eritrea, Afghanistan, Libya—that have created the conditions that inevitably give rise to huge migratory flows—wars always bring migratory flows—have brought an increasing challenge, a challenge which some politicians have met and others have ducked. Some have responded by expressions of position which I find repulsive. And I don’t mind identifying them. Some of the Central and Eastern European countries who have, for an example, said that in terms of refugees, which under the 1951 convention we are bound to provide sanctuary to, and in respect of which the principle of non-refoulement, sending back, is verboten and forbidden, they have said: We will take everybody as long as they’re Christians. This runs directly contrary to what the European Union is founded to do, more fundamentally what the United Nations is all about…
I was in Calais last week in a camp, which is an indictment of modern society—3,000 people, clear evidence of TB. I was there when there was a tear gas attack on the 3,000 people. The conditions were absolutely unspeakably terrible. And this is in France. And all of the people there want to get to Britain. Why don’t the French and the British get together and deal with it? Outrageous…
And the bottom line is, if you’re an economic migrant, adieu, good bye, you’re off. We’re sending you back. Send them all back, were the lines used by Mr. Cameron. I don’t accept that. The U.N. doesn’t accept that. Migrants are people who have rights too…
I think we have to get global buy-in fast to the migrant issue. If, as I said, proximity doesn’t define responsibility, then it’s all of our responsibility…
***WILLIAM L.SWING, Director General, International Organization for Migration: Though clear, as Peter says, the environmental degradation, climate change is going to also be an added push factor, we have—I just met with the president of Kiribati, one of the Pacific island countries. And he is basically on record as saying—they’ve asked him, you know, what can the West do to help? His answer is, nothing. It’s too late. They know their country will disappear. So he’s buying land in Fiji. And so we’re going to have a new form of statelessness, not in which a state rejects you, but in which you actually lose the state physically. So that’s clearly an added concern that we all have. Places like the Maldives are a concern now that they may also—so we got an additional factor there, another push factor…
Getting to the media is key. We have to be out there talking to the media. It’s great talking to you guys, but I’ve—I suspect from nodding heads that it’s preaching to the choir. And I mean, we really have to preach to the choir to get you to preach to the non-choir, but we also have to preach to the sort of crackpot, lunatic brigade that dominate so much of our media in the modern world and are creating a toxicity which is a bloody disgrace…
Equally, there are a lot of people who are open to being explained to, to being trained. And it’s amazing when you actually sit down and react—watch a reaction to an emotional story…
http://www.cfr.org/migration/global-response-mediterranean-migration-crisis/p37057

not mentioned: Sutherland was a director of the Royal Bank of Scotland Group until he was asked to leave the board when it had to be taken over by the UK government to avoid bankruptcy – Wikipedia.

u have to wonder if all the destabilisation of countries has been to hasten this migration. at one point, Sutherland says:

“I see U.N. DESA, Population Division of the U.N., here. I think facts about demographics are terribly important. I mean, the lowest birthrate in the world, Germany, the fact that it probably needs 1.5 million a year—if I’m correct on that figure—to maintain in 30 years’ time the ratio between retirees and working population. Italy, Spain, and so on, in the European context. The same issues, and even more dramatically as indicated by Bill, in regard to—in regard to Japan.”

***if it weren’t for the PAUSE, I think all the migration talk would be blamed on CAGW.

• #
Bill

today’s news has an Australian “reporter” being interviewed internationally touting “climate refugees”, sea level rise and vanishing islands (his name is Sykes) with no balance in the reporting at all. The media as cheerleaders not reporters.

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ralph ellis

*** Albedo regulation of Ice Ages, with no CO2 feedbacks ***

My analysis of Ice Age initiation and propagation is now up on the Warwick Hughes site. It speculates that the primary feedback for Ice Ages was actually albedo, not CO2. The overwhelming power of albedo was only overcome when CO2 dropped to dangerously low levels, resulting in widespread plant dieback and several millenia of dust storms. These dust storms reduced the albedo of the ice sheets, and allowed the Interglacial warming periods.

But Interglacial warming only happened when the precessional Great Year’s summer season increased insolation in the northern hemisphere. So several components are necessary for an Interglacial — very low Co2, plant dieback, dust storms, low ice albedo, and a Great Year summer season. So CO2 does falicitate Interglacial warming, but only by getting so low that all the plants die !!

Ralph

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KinkyKeith

Interesting

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Graeme No.3

Yes, very interesting and I have saved it for future reference as well.

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KinkyKeith

“The term Great Year has a variety of related meanings. It is defined by NASA as “The period of one complete cycle of the equinoxes around the ecliptic, about 25,800 years […] also known as [a] Platonic Year.”

• #
ralph ellis

>>Keith
>>The term Great Year has a variety of related meanings.

The important point is that there are two Great Years (GY). The standard Great Year is 25,700 years long, and it creates warm and cool ‘seasons’, just like a normal year – which is one reason why the ancient Egyptians and Greeks called it the Great Year. But the GY seasons are also effected by apsidal precession, and so the GY seasons are shorter. I could not find a standard name for this second cycle length, but since it only effects the GY seasons I called it the Seasonal Great Year (SGY), and it is 21,700 years long. This SGY is the basis for the Precession Index and all Milankovitch cycles (the average of all Milankovitch cycles is 21,700 years).

It so happens that ALL Interglacial warming periods are aligned with the NH SGY summer season. So scientists are WRONG, with a capital ‘W’. Interglacials are not regulated by orbital eccentricity, as they claim, they are regulated by the NH SGY summer season melting NH ice sheets. And only the NH is important, because it has the major landmasses. So the Ice Ages do not have a 100k year cycle controlled by orbital eccentricity, they actually have 88k or 110k year cycles controlled by multiples of SGY’s summer season. Four cycles = 88k years while five cycles = 110k years.

So the Ice Age cycle is not 100k years, it is multiples of 22k years.
The controlling cycle is therefore the Seasonal Great Year’s summer season.
You then need to explain why some cycles are missed.
This happens because of lowering CO2 concentrations.

So an Interglacial warming happens when:

Not enough CO2 (below 190 ppm)
Plants are starved of CO2 and die.
Barren lands are exposed.
Dust storms cover the ice sheets.
Glacial ice albedo is greatly reduced.
And now the next Seasonal Great Year’s summer season can warm the NH.

And yes – each Interglacial warming is preceded by 10,000 years of dust storms (see the diagram in the article). So of course some of the SGY summer seasons are missed out in the climate record, because they can only have an amplified effect — after CO2 falls below 190 ppm, after the plant dieback, after the dust storms, and after the resulting reduced albedo.

Thus CO2 IS a primary controller of Interglacial warmings, but only through getting so low that vast swathes of the world’s plants die. And this is not exactly the message that the Warmists are trying to broadcast to the world. It means that the primary danger to world ecosystems is not having enough CO2, rather than having too much of it.

Ralph

.

Apsidal Precession.
The following gif is the wrong way around, because this one makes the Seasonal Great Year longer, not shorter.

• #
KinkyKeith

Ralph

Here in Australia, as far as I understand it the last glaciation was not as severe as in the northern hemisphere.

In New York for example, the area was under about 1.5 km of ice field at the peak.

In Australia the level of glaciation was nowhere near as extensive.

Is it true that the length of the current cycles is reducing from say 130,000 years to 110,000 years and so on?

KK

• #
KinkyKeith

Ralph

Have started to look through your blog post.

A lot of work there.

KK

• #
ralph ellis

>>Is it true that the length of the current cycles is reducing
>>from say 130,000 years to 110,000 years and so on?

The last two cycles were 110k years, and the two before that were 88 k years.

Climate scientists very crudely average them as 100 k year cycles, but they are not. In reality, they are multiples of the precessional Seasonal Great Year, which is 21,700 years long. So 88k is 4 cycles while 110 k is 5 cycles.

In other words, the classical reasoning for the Ice Age cycle is wrong from square one.

Ralph

• #
KinkyKeith

Thanks

I hadn’t looked at those long term graphs for some time and got the answer to my q when I went to your site.

• #
gai

On dust and ice ages, this immediately came to mind. The switch from the Wisconsin Ice Age to the Holocene happened in ONE YEAR as the ice went from clear to full of dust and the thickness of the ice in Greenland decreased to half.

…Perhaps one of the more poignant moments in all of climate science occurred in 1992, documented by John D. Cox, writing in Climate Crash: Abrupt Climate Change and What it Means for our Future (John Henry Press, an imprint of the National Academies Press, ISBN: 0-309-54565-X, 224 pages, 2005), which describes the initial discovery of Abrupt Climate Change (ACC) and also introduces a main character, Dr. Richard B. Alley:

…The young American scientists had read the literature from Chet Langway, Willi Dansgaard, Hans Oeschger, Wally Broecker, and others, and they had heard from the Europeans, who were about a year ahead of them in drilling at Summit. Yet still they were not entirely prepared for what they saw that day in the ice, for the suddenness of it.”

“‘You did not need to be a trained ice core observer to see this,’ recalled Alley. ‘Ken Taylor is sitting there with the ECM and he’s running along and his green line is going wee, wee, wee, wee – Boing! Weep! Woop! And then it stays down.’ Dust in the windy ice age atmosphere lowered the acidity of the core to a completely new state. ‘We’re just standing there and he just draws a picture of it,”‘Alley said.”….

“In the GISP2 science trench, the tray holding the section of core rolled down the assembly line and then it was Alley’s turn at the ice. “It slides across in front of me and I’m trying to identify years: ‘That’s a year, that’s a year and that’s a year, and – woops, that one’s only half as thick.’ And it’s sitting there just looking at you. And there’s a huge change in the appearance of the ice, it goes from being clear to being not clear, having a lot of dust.”

So for what ever reason, Ralph Ellis is correct that dust in the ice signaled the end of the Wisconsin Ice Age.

Also of interest was the Insolation value at the switching point. The Holocene interglacial is now about 11,720 years old. NOAA gives the insolation values calculated by Berger for June insolation at 60°N

11,000 years ago………. 523.16 Wm-2 peak insolation
Wisconsin Ice age- Holocene transition
12,000 years ago………. 522.50 Wm-2
Modern Warm Period ……. 476 Wm-2
Depth of the last ice age ~ 464 Wm−2

Sure looks like we are into the Autumn of the Great Year and not that far above Dead of Winter insolation values.

• #
ralph ellis

.
>>So for what ever reason, Ralph Ellis is correct that dust
>>in the ice signaled the end of the Wisconsin Ice Age.

Interesting. I am presuming that this 11k year warming event relates to the end of the Younger Dryas cooling, rather than the end of the Ice Age itself. So I presume a few thousand years before this, there must have been another dust event.

Certainly the Antarctic ice core records other dust events before the Ice Age ended. Perhaps this final dust event was a local NH high latitude event, and did not get recorded in the Vostok ice core.

Yes the modern NH insolation has reduced considerably, and we are firmly in the Seasonal Great Year’s autumn season, as the graph below illustrates. The Milankovitch Great Year graph below gives insolation values for July for some reason, and records a max insolation of 470 wm2 and a current insolation of 430 wm2. Much the same proportion as the NOAA figures. Luckily for us the future prediction is that the insolation will stabilise at this level, rather than descending into a full-blown Great Year winter (as my fig 9 graph shows – black line).

https://www.cabrillo.edu/~rnolthenius/climate/Denialists/D-Ruddiman/milak&temp.jpg

I am still thinking that the temperature line on the graph above is displaced. It has the recovery from the Younger Dryas (the small notch half way up, that hardly shows on this scale) as recovering 13 k years ago. This does have a bearing on the amount od reduced forcing to initiate the new Ice Age, as I wrote in my paper.

Ralph

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ralph ellis

.
.
And the important thing to remember is that if this “Great Summer + dust” theory is correct, then the entire CO2 bandwagon is false.

As I write in my article, if insolation and albedo are the primary drivers of Ice Ages, then CO2 becomes a bit player in this drama. And so all the calculations made and assumed for CO2 feedbacks need dividing by perhaps as much as ten (a guestimate figure). And if this is the case, than CO2 does next to nothing regards the modern climate, and is easily opposed and regulated by cloud feedbacks.

Cheers,
Ralph

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RogueElement451

http://www.foxnews.com/transcript/2015/10/13/christie-takes-on-obama-foreign-policy-huckabee-reacts-to-latest-bergdahl/

Found the clip ! anyone with an urgent desire to throw up , please watch.
The American President is basically insane. Potus should be renamed Plotuss
Plot Lost On Things Under Serious Scrutiny.