JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


Handbooks

The Skeptics Handbook

Think it has been debunked? See here.

The Skeptics Handbook II

Climate Money Paper


Advertising

micropace


GoldNerds

The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX



Archives

Books

Putin, Russia calls man-made climate change a “fraud”

Bizarrely Russia may yet slow the trainwreck in Paris. The irony — the former communist state may be the one to thwart the ambitions of the freeloading global  bureaucracy. We can’t relax though, because like the Chinese, Putin will have a price and if the equation changes so that Russia gains an advantage over the West (through generous exemptions or credits or some other trade deal) he’ll pay lip-service to the Climate extremists.

Putin calls climate change  a “fraud” :

[NY Times (Reuters)] Russia’s official view appears to have changed little since 2003, when Putin told an international climate conference that warmer temperatures would mean Russians “spend less on fur coats” while “agricultural specialists say our grain production will increase, and thank God for that”.

The president believes that “there is no global warming, that this is a fraud to restrain the industrial development of several countries including Russia,” says Stanislav Belkovsky, a political analyst and critic of Putin. “That is why this subject is not topical for the majority of the Russian mass media and society in general.”

Putin’s scepticism dates from the early 2000s, when his [...]

Secret science? What’s NOAA hiding?

It used to be that scientists were supposed to publish their methods, discuss their reasoning, and point out the weaknesses of their work. Now, it’s confidential.

The House Science Committee in the US is demanding with a subpoena that NOAA release internal communications related to the Karl et al study (that tried to remove the “pause” in global temperatures.) NOAA is refusing saying:

“It is a long-standing practice in the scientific community to protect the confidentiality of deliberative scientific discussions.”

Yes. It’s been longstanding since morning tea on Tuesday.

The new post-modern science conversation:

SCIENTIST 1:  So why did Karl et al adjust the ocean buoy readings by a figure that is so uncertain as to be meaningless?  From Kennedy et al  0.12 ± 1.7°C. What were you thinking?

KARL ET AL and co:  snip [That's confidential. Stop this now. We're feeling harrassed!]

What is the world coming to if congress succeeds in exposing objective, rational discussion about thermometers?

 

h/t Leigh, Marvin

 

 

New Science 16: Building the alternative model and why it solves so many major problems

In typical style I looked at this draft and told David that the second half of his post should be at the top (that’s where he discusses how his model solves so many problems). He replied that the equations were the most important part, and he wasn’t going to flip them around. So, for readers who don’t speak mathematica-lingua, all I can say, is don’t miss the second half below.

Also in typical style, David prefers this picture he’s just drawn in his diagramming software, to my cartoon in the intro to post 11:

 

In this post, David combines the two smaller models to make one basic climate model (that’s the sum-of-warmings and the OLR models). Unlike the mainstream conventional basic model that underlies the entire establishment culture and philosophy, the alternative model uses more empirical data (and from the real world too, not just the lab). It’s also less reliant on hypothetical partial derivatives. Plus, in the alternate model, different forcings can cause different responses. In the conventional model, the architecture assumes the climate responds to to all forcings the same way.

CO2 has a warming effect on the atmosphere, rather than just on the surface, and [...]

Extreme solar storms hit Earth in 774 and 993AD — What would happen if one hit now?

August 31, 201. This coronal mass ejection just missed Earth, according to NASA

There were two mysterious sudden spikes in carbon 14 in tree rings around a thousand years ago. Now some researchers at Lund University say they’ve matched those to beryllium layers in ice cores from the Arctic and Antarctic. Some wild event made these changes across continents all over the world at the same time, and about the only thing that could  have done that was a massive solar storm (or two). There are estimates these extreme storms would have been ten times stronger than the biggest solar storms we have had in the last few decades. The two big bad storms are described as a few times bigger than even the largest solar storm in modern history, which was The Carrington Event in 1859. The radioactive spikes specifically show up in tree rings in 774/775AD and 993/994AD. It’s pretty cool that we can pin those years down so accurately, and as an aside, I imagine it makes a fairly handy calibration point for tree ring researchers now that we know it was global.

Unfortunately, if one of those happened now, it would not be fun. The [...]

Hyper guilt trip time: Global warming linked to the health of children!

One hundred thousand years too late, the AAP warns parents that climate change can affect their children:

Today, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) released a policy statement that links climate change with the health of children, urging pediatricians and politicians to work together to solve this crisis and protect children from climate-related threats including natural disasters, heat stress, lower air quality, increased infections, and threats to food and water supplies.

“Every child need a safe and healthy environment and climate change is a rising public health threat to all children in this country and around the world,” said AAP President Sandra G. Hassink, MD, FAAP. “Pediatricians have a unique and powerful voice in this conversation due to their knowledge of child health and disease and their role in ensuring the health of current and future children.”

 This is the climate change that children without cars and electricity dealt with:

Vostok 

This is the climate change babies who are 30 and under have to deal with:

UAH satellite data — the same range as the Vostok graph axis.

All those parents leaving their children out in floods and storms, be warned:

“Children [...]

French Mathematical Calculation Society: Global Warming Crusade is absurd and pointless

The hard sciences are less and less fooled by the charade of sciencey fear mongering (unlike some psychologists). It is great to see scientific groups speaking out, though we know this PDF, which was first published on the 24th of August 2015, will be ignored by the ABC, BBC, and CBC science propaganda teams. Not the right message.

The Société de Calcul Mathématique SA, in France has issued a long in depth white paper on climate change:

“The battle against global warming: an absurd,costly and pointless crusade”

“The battle against global warming“ 195  page PDF

 The impact on the entire field of scientific research is particularly clear and especially pernicious.

There is not a single fact, figure or observation that leads us to conclude that the world‘s climate is in any way disturbed‘

“Conclusions based on any kind of model should be disregarded. As the SCM specializes in building mathematical models, we should also be recognized as competent to criticize them. Models are useful when attempting to review our knowledge, but they should not be used as an aid to decision-making until they have been validated.”

[...]

Weekend Unthreaded

New Science 15: Modeling outgoing radiation (OLR)

OLR — outgoing longwave radiation — is so key, so central to the climate debate that if we had top notch data on the radiation  coming off the planet, we would have solved the effect of extra CO2 a long time ago. That we don’t have a specific satellite  monitoring these changes in detail is like the dog that didn’t bark. Apparently a specialist OLR satellite was to be launched in  2015. More info on the RAVAN Satellite here (was supposed to launch in Sept 2015). (UPDATE: Planned for 2016) h/t siliggy.

There are four main pipes to space, and in David’s work each pipe is considered separately. The conventional model assumes that increasing atmospheric CO2 constricts the CO2 pipe, which warms the surface, causing more evaporation, which then constricts the Water Vapor pipe (this is the “water vapor amplification”, even more constriction of radiation to space by water vapor that forces the surface to emit more by being yet warmer). But the missing hot spot tells us that this theory is wrong. In this OLR model, the water vapor pipe could either expand or constrict. An expansion means a drop in the height of the emissions layer, [...]

Ice Age coming 1978

h/t Alistair.

For Discussion: Can convection neutralize the effect of greenhouse gases?

Here’s an idea for commenters to sink their teeth into — Stephen Wilde postulates a mechanism where convection can neutralize the effect of changes in  greenhouse gases. The focus in David’s series of blog posts has been on radiation, but the troposphere is governed by convection.  The tropopause is the boundary where convection runs out of oomph, and above the tropopause, in the stratosphere, radiation rules supreme. Airliners like to fly at the bottom of the stratosphere (“thirty thousand feet”), just above the convection and water vapor in the troposphere, because it’s calm. But sometimes turbulence from the troposphere punches up into the stratosphere, so think of Fig 1 below if you are asked to suddenly sit in your seat and fasten your seat belt.

All the focus on radiation imbalances tends to ignore the powerful effects of gravity and convection. To get a sense of how important gravity is, ponder that a mere 3km above the surface the pressure is 300hpa lower, but gravity stops  the surface air from rushing up and equalizing that. Imagine if there were two sites on the ground where pressure was, say,  1000hpa and 700hpa, and they were only three kilometers apart, we’d [...]