JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Weekend Unthreaded

Perth Western Australia

Sunset, Perth Hills

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118 comments to Weekend Unthreaded

  • #

    Let’s look at the humungous uptake of renewable power, and here I’ll just concentrate on the two which are in vogue, wind and all versions of solar power.

    Have you ever wondered why the percentage of renewables on a Worldwide basis is staying relatively static at around 3% and is not really expected to rise by all that much in the next twenty years or so, and yet so many of them are being constructed all around the World.

    For example, in just the U.S. alone, there is a Nameplate for wind power of 70,000MW. That’s the equivalent Nameplate of 35 large scale coal fired power plants.

    They can build as many of them as they like, and that percentage will still stay at around only 3%.

    Why is that?

    Say you have just one new technology USC (UltraSuperCritical ) coal fired plant come on line. It has 2 units, each driving a 1300MW generator, so, a nameplate of 2600MW. Now, as I have often said, it’s not Nameplate that is the indicator here, (despite all the uninformed media concentrating on just that) but the actual power delivered for consumption. So, for one year’s actual power delivery, (the Industry Standard) that power delivered comes in at (around an average of) 20,500GWH. (GigaWattHours)

    (Here, I will do the Maths for Wind and for Solar PV, and CSP (Concentrating Solar Power) is similar to wind, just a little less in fact)

    So now we need to work backwards from that power delivery to work out how much Nameplate for wind power. To deliver an actual 20,500GWH of power, you now need a Nameplate for wind of 8,070MW. That equates to 17 large scale wind plants of 500MW or more, around (on average) 200 individual towers.

    For Solar PV, and again working backwards from that same actual power delivered, you would need a Nameplate of 18,700MW, or around 130 plus monster solar PV farms.

    The Maths is even more ridiculous for rooftop solar installations. The current average installation is 2.5KW, so for the same power generation as this one coal fired power plant, you will need around 7.5 MILLION roofs covered with those average 2.5KW systems.

    So, from this, you can now see that for every ONE coal fired plants, you need to construct renewable plants in huge numbers.

    No, while China keeps going at their current rate of construction of coal fired plants, and soon India, and a number of other Counties will start ramping up their construction of them, they can build as many of these renewables as they like, and all they will be doing is just keeping pace, barely even keeping up.

    Many more wind plants than any form of solar plants will be constructed, and you can see why from the Maths above. Wind will always make up the largest percentage of renewables (these two of choice anyway) and that overall percentage will always stay low.

    Now, what also needs to be kept in mind here is that for every one of these coal fired plants which go in, you effectively have to double that number shown in the Maths, because the coal fired plant has a life span of 50 years and the renewables can barely manage 25 years if that.

    So, when I say that the percentage of renewables will always be that low and will hardly make any impression at all, I can say that with confidence.

    What you might see, and you already do see it, there is the concentration on just the Nameplate, which makes it (seem only to) look like equivalence.

    Tony.

    501

    • #

      Sorry Tony, nothing really to do with your post, but I just wanted to say this so that it appeared near the top.

      Praise be to Global Warming! Finally, after the coldest and most miserable winter that I can remember, we’ve had some warm days in Victoria.

      We’ve been burning wood like kids going through chocolate at a birthday party (those that still allow it) and will have to do some serious collecting for next winter, as everything indicates that it’ll be worse.

      40

  • #
    bobl

    In about 2000 when I last looked there were only about 7 Million households in Australia so on that basis covering EVERY roof in Australia with a 2.5kW solar system to get output equivalent (in Annual GWh) just one 2600 MW coal plant. But as I am fond of pointing out, the actual generation of Solar that you use in your calcs is NOT watt for watt compatible with Coal, Coal delivery overall has a reliability of 99.95% – to get that from solar you need storage, and even then the maximum guaranteed on-demand delivery at 99.95% reliability is only going to be about 2% of nameplate, not 17%. So even with every household in Australia with 2.5kW of Solar you still couldn’t shut down even one of the units in one coal power station.

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      That’s OK bobl. All greenies know that people can afford the necessary $60-70,000 for the batteries and associated controls. Either that or “the government will provide them by raising taxes”.

      QUESTION. Given the known propensity of lithium batteries to burst into flames, would you really allow anyone stupid enough to believe the above to be in charge of their own power station? Especially if they were next door.

      292

  • #
    Rollo

    You are being very nice to renewables, Tony, by not even mentioning that Coal power stations do the 24X7X365 thing really well. To be comparable renewables need a mechanism to store the intermittent dribbles of power they produce and release it as needed. How much more expense are we talking about now? Any estimates?

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  • #
    Andrew McRae

    For once I will open with questions rather than declarations.

    Can anyone explain how the conclusion logically follows from the premises in this statement:

    “The ero-ticisation of women’s physical appearance is a way of exercising power over women. It silences women’s professional attributes as their physical appearance becomes the subject.”

    - UK woman who received LinkedIn message about her appearance inundated with support

    What are the female perspectives on this?

    80

    • #

      It means the women looks great but does not like the fact that this appears to be distracting to others. It may be an excuse for lack of job success. Others may feel the woman is using her looks and not her job skills.

      It may be that she doesn’t like nature itself and wishes it weren’t so. If she is the one over whom the power is being excercised, she is probably jealous. If she’s the one with the power and is saying she doesn’t like having the power, she should try dressing down.

      Usually, as in all such statements, someone is not being treated the way they want to be and is blaming whatever is easy latch on to. If all the women were ugly, there would probably be the claim that ugliness distracts from job performance. No one, male or female, escapes judgemen based on physical appearance, laugh, voice, whatever. If one does the job well and stands out, this can be overcome. Using it as an excuse is not good. If it can’t be overcome in the current job, then acceptance or a new job is in order.

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      • #
        Andrew McRae

        I hadn’t thought of it that way. That’s just why I asked the question, because I’d get a different perspective.
        That test of substituting ugliness with beauty to see if the conclusion would be the same is a interesting one. One might even go further and substitute ugliness with cola brand preference; it would show that the 2nd person’s focus on one attribute does not silence the 1st person’s other attributes, certainly not in the minds of 3rd parties.
        Thanks, Sheri.

        Our appearance is a physical symbol which will be interpreted. It is ultimately in the mind of the receiver to assign meaning to what they see in a conservative and justifiable way, the sender can’t generally control the interpretation a priori. We may wish that people judged us in a particular way, but we cannot control what people appreciate (or hate) about us. That is part of the tension, it’s a popularity contest over whose preferred meaning becomes normalised for assignment to the same symbol.

        Therefore, regarding the dress-down to reduce distractions, it is true it takes two to tango. But there’s got to be some sort of socially normalised balance or compromise here. We can’t give all the power to the receiver, the full body burka is going too far. Equally we can’t give all the power to the sender, as walking around in our birthday suits doesn’t preserve any intimacy for anatomy as well as being climatically uncomfortable in most places. There will always be ambiguity in the “meaning” of the compromise.

        That simply covers the easy case of cosmetics and appearance. Don’t even get me started on how the main character in that story has interpreted a compliment.

        40

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        It means the women looks great but does not like the fact that this appears to be distracting to others.

        Interesting, Sheri. But though it may be true, it is irrelevant. Why? Because men and women are both hard wired by biology to recognize the most sexually desirable members of the opposite sex. And they do, anywhere, professional, work or play, it make no difference. And anyone who believe this can be changed by any force, including force of law or social pressure, is going to be disappointed.

        That some men act like fools doesn’t help but that won’t ever go away either.

        Compromises as Andrew McRae talks about above are possible. But they don’t eliminate the problem. It might be better to just live with it.

        And now I suppose I’ll be jumped on by someone for this comment. So be it. I’m not afraid of controversy when I’m right. And I’m right on this point. The biological imperative wins. And the measure of both men and women in such a case is not whether or not they recognize the attractive member of the opposite sex but what they do about that recognition when it happens.

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        • #
          Yonniestone

          This is the crux of it, the drive to procreate is a relatively simple procedure made complex by human emotions but this is understandable due to our self awareness or at least the ability to express it where the basic act to continue a species is considered important social contact and thus elevated to a mystical status that is reflected in our many societies and faiths.
          To simply engage in multiplying like bacteria would go against our very nature as our wits is what separates us from the beasts.

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        • #

          Roy: I am fully aware that men and women are both hard-wired for attraction to the opposite sex (or same sex nowadays, if you buy that idea). However, the woman posting on LinkedIn more than likely believes that is irrelevant. Most feminists do. Reality is irrelevant. Men should behave as they are told to and stop ogling women or else. There is exists no contact whatsoever with reality in any of this.

          Andrew’s statement about how the “woman” (I’m using quotes because people such as she do not see themselves as female, but as a person without gender) took the compliment comes about because of years of brainwashing of women about what cads men are. Women hate men now–as seen in the single mother deification. I pity boys born to such women. There is true anger and hatred in this movement.
          If you ask the woman why she put a very pretty picture up, she will yell at you that it is just a picture. If you ask about the make-up and hair-style, etc, it’s “for her”. I can assure you this is the reaction–I have been told exactly this by women. They dress sexy for “themselves” (that does sound as kinky as you think it does) and men are just to shut up and not notice.

          10

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            Sheri,

            You are no doubt right regarding feminists. I have a niece who more or less proves you right. But don’t expect me to believe them or even take notice of them. Reality is what it is. I choose reality over fantasy every time. And I know you do too.

            I will neither shut up nor fail to notice. What I will always do is behave as befits a gentleman and not make a fool of myself.

            By the way, this woman’s reaction is not exactly productive for her or anyone else. Better to ignore her so-called admirer and go on, leaving him behind in the dust than to protest about it.

            As for same sex attraction being hard wired, I don’t believe it though I stay open to convincing evidence that it is. My doubt is based on what I know of the childhood, family and life of a homosexual man who died of AIDS complications quite literally in his father’s arms. Real evidence is very convincing, especially what he told his father when near death. Years ago I spent numerous holidays as a guest in his parent’s home with him there and he was as likable a guy as you could hope to meet.

            00

            • #

              I’m not asking you to shut up or fail to notice. I’m just clarifying why I think the woman behaved as she did. You are right that her reaction is not good for her—she will alienate male bosses and coworkers. Her best hope is to work with only women.
              I don’t object to having doors opened for me, etc. My husband does that all the time. On the other hand, in the late 80′s, when I worked for a seismic processing company, the guys there seemed to consider me guy except for the crude comments about wet tshirts in the rain, telling me it didn’t matter to them they were married, did it matter to me and then turning around and watching me change a flat tire in the rain from the comfort of the office window! Maybe antelope hunting with one one of them added to the leaving me out in the rain—guess they figured if I could drag an antelope, I could change a tire.
              Most of the time I am just one of the guys because guys get to do all the fun things!

              10

    • #
      el gordo

      We have all seen Attenbroughs ‘Death’, the biological urge of males and the casual indifference of females. I realise that god (in his infinite wisdom) thought that this was the best way to avoid extinction, but the battle of the sexes is surely out of date in the 21st century.

      20

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        …but the battle of the sexes is surely out of date in the 21st century.

        I don’t know if it’s really out of date or not but it certainly continues to this day.

        00

  • #
    pat

    TonyfromOz -

    it is truly disgusting that your analyses are not published in the MSM, while the writings of uninformed, enumate pseudo journos are.

    the Australian public are so mis-informed, it drives me crazy.

    13 Sept: (Larry) Pickering Post: THE LEFT PRESS IS KNEE DEEP IN A WATERWORLD OF ITS OWN
    How can you tell the latest reshuffle scoop was invented, generated and distributed by snotty nosed cadets in the Press Gallery? Well, because it’s only they who believe, or pray, that Malcolm Turnbull will take Australia to the Paris “climate change” Conference at year’s end.
    Everyone close to the political heat knows Malcolm Turnbull is not a serious starter when it comes to Liberal leadership.
    The outpourings of the Left Press are becoming a comedy of hysterical hyperbole…
    The ABC and a failing Fairfax have taken to inventing stories of crises within the Coalition rather than risk being gazumped by a News Ltd “scoop”.
    So now snotty nosed News Ltd cadets are doing the same thing. It’s a little world of bunkum and bullshit that an accuracy starved, and erstwhile responsible medium like SKY is even lapping up…
    The truth is that heads of Island States depend heavily on foreign aid and for them to suggest that everything is normal would be financially irresponsible.
    The Left Press and the Greens want Turnbull turning up to the Paris Conference, not Abbott! And they are doing their very best to achieve that result…
    COMMENT:
    By Orania -
    I see in todays papers that Turncoat has said he wouldn’t change Coalitions current policy on Climate Change – Oh Yeah, we all believe the Malc, it would be your Gillard moment “there will be no climate change changes under a govt I lead”
    By BK -
    Lord Mockton, Christopher Monckton released a video months ago warning that Prime Minister Tony Abbott was under attack by UN IPCC forces internationally and at home…
    http://pickeringpost.com/story/the-left-press-is-knee-deep-in-a-waterworld-of-its-own/5366

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  • #
    handjive

    FactCheck Fun
    ABC, CSIRO 8 May 2001: Australia’s future forecast: hot, dry and more floods

    “While frost damage to many crops may decrease, said CSIRO, fruit trees need cold weather to set fruit, so some fruit yields may decline.”
    ~ ~ ~
    Fact Check #1 -

    10 Sept. 2015, Tweet via smh/p.hannam:

    “bring it on. I’m over the cold. 17 frosts this year….usually 3 or 4″

    Fact Check #2 –

    fruit trees need cold weather to set fruit, so some fruit yields may decline.”

    The best fruits to plant in cold weather:
    “Peach, grape, blueberry, cherry, strawberry, and apple lovers are in luck.”

    ABC 9 Apr 2015: South Australia’s largest cherry grower has produced his biggest ever crop
    . . .
    2 from 2 fails.

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  • #
    Neville

    Ken Stewart has a new UAH V 6 update.
    No global warming for 18ys 5 mths, no n. polar warming for 13 yrs 7 mths, no s polar warming for entire record 36 yrs 9 mths, USA no warming for 18 yrs 3 mths and OZ now no warming for 17 yrs 11 mths.

    https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2015/09/11/pause-update-september-2015/

    150

    • #
      AndyG55

      And because the 1997-2001 El Nino/La Nina event was the ONLY warming in the whole of the satellite record,

      … here is absolutely no CO2 warming signature in the whole of the satellite data.

      12

      • #
        Andrew McRae

        No idea what UAH v6 shows. I’ll use UAH v5.6.
        Actual trend is more like 0.06°C/decade if you take the average of the pre-`98 trend (0.042) and post-`98 trend (0.076).
        So there’s actually some wriggle room there for some greenhouse warming, but of course one cannot attribute all of that warming to CO2 so it won’t be as much as +0.6°C in a century. Less than 0.4 probably.

        What trend does mainstream CO2 warming theory hypothesis predict?
        From Isaac Held’s TCS analysis I borrow the formula T = ξ * F where he estimates ξ=0.38K/Wm^-2.
        Using the popular “no-feedback” RTM forcing regression…
        F(C) = 5.35 ln(C/C₀)
        T(t) = 0.38 * F(t)
        F(t) = 5.35 ln( C(t)/C₀ ) = 5.35 ln C(t) - 5.35 ln(C₀)
        (I apologise if I haven’t applied the chain rule correctly here, please check.)
        T'(t) = dT(t)/dt = dT(t)/dF * dF(t)/dC * dC(t)/dt
        dT/dF = 0.38
        dF/dt = 5.35/C(t)
        T'(t) = 0.38 * 5.35/C(t) * dC(t)/dt
        Approximating the pre and post El Nino as two 15-year sections and using the values for dC/dt at the centers of these periods:
        T’(1990) = 0.38 * 5.35/354 * 1.48 = 0.085°/decade
        T’(2005) = 0.38 * 5.35/380 * 2.01 = 0.11°/decade

        The conventional prediction was between 145% and 200% of what actually happened, at least if ξ = 0.38K/Wm^-2. What’s a power of two error amongst pals, eh?
        To repair the gap, the global (all forcing) sensitivity has to come down, or other unmodelled natural factors that contributed warming have to be introduced into the picture, or both.
        The first option has already been done by Mr Held, as that sensitivity value is less than what had been published in other papers in 2008 and he invokes a reduction in aerosols to achieve it.
        The second option is absolutely required by the cosmic ray evidence (which the IPCC is still downplaying).
        Climate sensitivity to CO2 is likely less than 1.4°C/doubling by this analysis. The warming is not worth worrying about, and certainly not something to urgently entreaty in 2015. There’s plenty of time to understand the climate more fully instead of invoking expensive precautions.

        40

        • #
          Andrew McRae

          Well before anyone slams me I’ll point out what was wrong with the above analysis.
          It assumes the temperature reaches equilibrium instantly.
          In theory, the additional forcing could make a huge difference to the equilibrium temperature but the rate of change (transient response) could be slow in getting there.
          Without an understanding of how quickly the earth responds to a radiative step-shift it is not possible to draw conclusions about equilibrium sensitivity based on short term transient response.
          Actually, the slower the transient response the more time there is for natural sequestration to reduce the forcing and so the smaller the effective sensitivity.

          Nonetheless, the fact that predictions have been below actuals is an independent argument which undermines confidence in the ClimateCrisis™.

          20

  • #
    James Murphy

    France has removed export subsidies for coal plants being built abroad.

    Alstom are massive, and just over 12 months ago, the French government intervened in the sale of Alstom to GE by acquiring some of Alstom themselves. This was done to ‘protect French jobs’, according to the government. it seems like some jobs are more important than others…

    100

  • #
    Manfred

    Not quite the wooden stake through the Green heart but a few solid nails in the Green coffin:
    Over at WUWT

    Californian climate mutiny! Democrats side with Republicans to defeat Jerry Brown
    Democrats in California seem to be finally waking up to the fact that green energy disproportionately hurts poor people.

    This is precisely what happens when the frank dissociation between individual reality and the marketed image concealing the totalitarian Green nightmare finally connect.
    The elected finally wake up to the reality that they are fast becoming unelectable.

    Just listen to the squealing. It’s deafening, welcome and most opportune given the proximity of the Paris-ites escargot fest.

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    • #
      Manfred

      Groan.
      In ‘moderation’ once again for a ‘short’ post and with a mere single link this time.
      Rhyme and reason?

      30

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      Caught in moderation or not, this is music to my ears. A symphony of greater beauty than anything Beethoven ever wrote, including his mighty 5th that became the symbol for victory in WWII for its opening that forms the radio telegraph code for “V” and the soothing Pastorale 6th. Absolutely magnificent news.

      Bravo to the state legislature. :-)

      I really ought to look in at WUWT more often.

      30

  • #
    Radical Rodent

    Looking at that picture, I would say that your back garden needs a bit of work, Ms Nova.

    50

  • #
    Ceetee

    Aus has an untamed harsh beauty that I love.

    60

  • #
    el gordo

    ‘The overall North Atlantic cooling development already appears to have some warmists in a state of panic, and so it’s no surprise we are now seeing highly dubious studies insisting that the warming is causing the cooling.’

    - See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2015/09/12/ireland-sees-coldest-summer-in-30-years-north-atlantic-scandinavia-northern-russia-endure-frigid-summer/#sthash.BhRqp611.dpuf

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    • #
      john karajas

      Warming is causing the cooling? Of course, Naomi Klein that well known and highly credentialed scientist sez dat it is so.

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      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Well of course the warming is causing the cooling. Everytime my house gets too warm the air conditioning comes on and cools it off again. QED: It is proven, warming causes cooling. ;-)

        71

  • #
    Another Ian

    ROM

    As mentioned on a previous thread – the glideresque take

    Seems from what I have gleaned that we share several things

    A rural background (you don’t have a piled higher and deeper and I do – but I regularly deal with people who could have but didn’t and are as smart as I am or better) and an exposure to gliding.

    And you’re ahead of me in the flying awards. I got solo in that past reference, was a lot the bloke that kept the outfit flying (including the winch), got to the stage where we had one instructor and one winch driver. I don’t have a log book on that but it was plenty.

    Even got into state airworthiness for a while.

    And now the glideresque part.

    When one has managed three score and ten one is on a final glide of a different sort.

    Which means that any interesting thermals on the way home should be explored to the full – bugger the hurry now.

    And I rate this blog (among some others) as some of those thermals.

    And then I find that I am not really original as SCA has “Final Glides” as the obituary list.

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    • #
      ROM

      G’d evening “Another Ian”

      Life story approximately of a 77 year old former and now retired farmer following.
      If you get bored easily don’t read any further.

      Sadly at three score and ten plus seven years my gliding days are about over.
      The physical effort and the fact that we are on the pension to my great disgust and not self supportive for reasons I won’t go into,[ although I have paid my quite a few millions in tax in my lifetime,] makes it financially impossible to keep gliding.
      And No we didn’t go bankrupt and my son and his wife still have a good spread of country they are leasing out. He had a million bucks worth of lentils wiped out right when they were flowering and only a three weeks away from harvest by a burst of four days of over 40C heat in 2009 and it broke him psychologically after all those hard years and low prices of the 2000′s. So he quit farming with my blessing which in a way was itself a blessing as at 47 years old he has just had a heart attack and a night time ambulance ride the 300 kms to Melbourne for a triple by pass. He was lucky and thats an understatement. Doesn’t Smoke or drink much at all . Genetic so the Docs say, The genes came in with those bloody old german Lutherans who arrived in South Australia in about 1850. He got them from both sides of the family.
      Started flying training in the Tigers in late 1959.
      Got my license, Got married . Not much, ie No money.
      Joined the gliding club when it started in March 1963 and was, until I gave it away mid last year, the only original member still flying.
      Flew the second 500 Km triangle in Australia in a Boomerang. There weren’t many 500 km triangles that had been flown anywhere in the world in about 1966
      We were the first to explore Lee Wave in Australia, flying the now well known west Vic Grampians Wave system which I got to 23,600 feet in the Boomerang on a “borrowed” hospital medical system and some figures written on a piece of cardboard as to what heights I should up the O2 flow rates. We didn’t even know if that real new sealant stuff called Teflon would ignite like oil does in near pure O2 so it was all done  on Hope, Luck and with a high flying, fast flying in my case , very alert, sometimes overworked guardian Angel in constant attendance.
      FAI Three diamonds by 1968. Unofficially No 4 [ No 6 officially as I was bit lax in putting in my 500 kms and had to do it again which I did the following week end in the Boomer ] earned in Oz and only the second fully earned in Oz and all done in the wooden Boomerang. FAI International three diamond badge No 994 .
      Instructor. Senior instructor. Flew a 730 km triangle in 1973 in the Std Cirrus but was trying for an 800km / 500 mile triangle but turned short when conditions deteriorated. Only found out some months later it was the then longest and largest triangle that had been flown in the world.
      About 3000 hours gliding and 600 power mostly as a tuggie. Would have been a lot more if farming and earning a living hadn’t got in the way. Built two winches and three trailers over the early years.
      Ran Horsham Week with its anywhere from the regular 50 plus to over 70 gliders at a couple of those early 1970 years plus about 6 or 7 tugs as the Operations Director for about 30 out of the 35 years our club ran Horsham Week.
      This next HW will be the 50th since it was first held in 1968. 49 of those HW’s have been held in the Horsham Airfield.
      Got mixed up in the Waikerie with the Swedes and the Benalla world comps somewhere up the totem pole.

      Farmed with my wife and brother and his wife for 17 years. Raised a family, two girls and a boy, a few dogs and some budgies with cats thrown in.
      Represented 600 graingrowers in west Vic for 10 years on our state farmers grain’s group which mean’t Big City trips at least every month and usually more often plus the local branch meetings all over.
      Built a clover / medic pasture seed suction harvester in the 1980′s operating on the same suction principals as the Horwood machine of the 1950′s and 60s but ours was 14 feet wide and travelled 5 kms hr instead of 4 feet wide @ 3 kms hr. Power was 400 HP Cat. The suction fan took 200 HP to drive and we use to suck up the medic pods from about 2000 to 3000 acres a year. Figured out how to separate about 15 to 20 tonnes of dirt an hour from the pods before they went into the thresher, all done while on the move.
      Was told by what turned out to be a Proffessor of engineering at Melbourne uni who turned up for god only knows reason now at our place, saw the clover harvester, asked if he could look over it and came back an hour later with the comment that he was a Prof of engineering but damned if he could figure out how that machine worked and told us that if we had written it up, the whole thing, principles, construction and etc up he would have given my brother and self a doctorate based on what he had seen of that machine.
      With my brother, built a big seed processing plant at Dimboola and exported pasture seeds to about 17 countries.
      Was trustee for 28 years for the land on which what is now one of Australia’s largest grain research centres here in Horsham.

      Anyway thats probably about half or less of what I have been doing these last 77 years.
      No imagination as I am still living in roughly the same patch as I was born in.
      Down to building Chook treadle feeders these days and flogging them at the local markets. Started building them in late september last year 2014, after the sparrow trap project was only a partial success, and have now built and sold over 80 with some clients coming back for their second and third feeders. Dog feeders to add the the chook feeders are the next project if the current prototype works Ok.

      Can and do click out my 3.2 to 3.6 km walk each evening in around 43 minutes for the longer walk.
      Can’t afford to depart this mortal coil for some time yet as there is too much to do and see and savour for some time yet.
      But I did have an uncle who lived to 104 and someone said I am just like him which made my kids groan with deep despair along with their horror struck visages!

      Cheers.

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      • #
        KinkyKeith

        ROM

        For somebody who has spent so much of his life on farming equipment breathing all that stuff you mentioned previously, you sure have done a lot besides.

        Amazing.

        KK

        50

        • #
          Roy Hogue

          KK,

          Sailplanes (gliders if you prefer) are a whole different experience. If you ever get the chance to go up, do it. You’ll never forget the experience.

          40

          • #
            KinkyKeith

            Roy

            I think I’ll stick to my electric powered R/C glider instead.

            If it crashes it just cost me a bit to repair it.

            KK

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            • #
              Roy Hogue

              When you were learning that R/C glider you probably did crash it but with experience you got past that. You’d be going up with a certified instructor pilot who also got past that, only he didn’t crash because he had an instructor along, which you couldn’t have standing by ready to take the stick and rudder if you got in trouble with your model.

              If you feel like a little more adventure see if your instructor will let you take the stick for a few minutes. You already know the basics of airspeed and attitude control and those things don’t change just because you’re in the air for real. And a sailplane is nearly child’s play compared to propeller driven aircraft.

              So go for it!

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      • #
        Annie

        Do your chook feeders have a brand name ROM? Or do you advertise them anywhere?

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        • #
          ROM

          Hi Annie
          Unofficially I call my self “Eyeball Engineering” which was the name given to my workshop efforts about 45 years ago by a couple of my [ still ] mates who worked for us for a some months.
          The “Wimmera Poultry Club” on its Facebook page has some photos of my feeders when I had a stand at one of their shows earlier this year.

          Just scroll down until you see the photo of the feeders. Click to expand.

          Its all a folding stuff transaction and I only sell at the markets or pick up from my home in Horsham.

          According to clients [ haven't had chooks for forty years ourselves ! ] their sparrows are gone in about 3 days and they more than halve their feed use.
          And a number of tyre kickers at the markets who have the top lid opening Grandfather feeders have voluntarily told me that had mine been available they would have bought definitely bought my feeder instead of the GF feeders which have a number of problems according to the backyard forums including frightening the chooks when the lid lifts in their faces.
          Both sized feeders are set up so that around a half a kilogram is needed to activate the treadle and for the door to move back and away and reveal the feed trough, Pellet capacities are 10 Kg and 20 kg.

          50

          • #
            Annie

            Thanks ROM. We are rather a long way from you, well past Healesville out to the Northeast of Melbourne, and haven’t yet set up properly for chooks but plan to get some some day. We used to keep them in other places, though making fox and vermin proof palaces for them here is a bit of a challenge! Unfortunately I am not a Facebook user; on the whole I don’t want to become involved in it.

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            Crikey, ROM! Looked up Wimmera on Google Earth. It’s right in the middle of a paddock and not a chook to be seen! :)

            Interesting life you’ve had. Long may it last!

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    el gordo

    This UK winter holds the promise of another complete whiteout and the Paris gabfest will not be immune.

    I see Lamb’s 50 year cycle.

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/604619/Long-range-weather-forecast-Britain-cold-winter-2015-arctic-snow-freeze

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    • #
      john karajas

      Keeping up with the noble tradition set by the Copenhagen extravaganza no doubt, or is it the Al Gore effect?

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    • #
      David Maddison

      I wonder if Britain’s (and Europe’s) weakened electrical grid will be able to cope with the upcoming cold weather? Same for the US but I don’t think their grid has been as heavily compromised by unsustainables.

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  • #
    Peter Crawford

    ” South Australia’s largest cherry grower has produced his biggest ever crop.”

    Handjive,

    Even from my mountain stronghold in Old North Wales I can see you have cherry-picked your data here :)

    Jo,

    Your picture of the Perth Hills and Handjive’s cherry-picked response reminded me of the wild blueberries that grow in the Beddgelert Forest in Snowdonia, Old North Wales. They are deeply flavoursome. I will be off to collect some shortly. Admittedly it involves thrahing through a bog and clambering up steep crags but the results are worth it: Wild Blueberry Pie followed by Wild Blueberry Pie followed by Wild Blueberry Pie. A perfectly balanced three course meal.

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    • #
      KinkyKeith

      Peter,

      Your mention of Wales and food reminds me of a Christmas party put on here in New South Wales by a person whose Welsh ancestry seemed to have taken hold of him.

      He asked us to sing for him at his vineyard in the Hunter Valley and entertain his workers and guests and afterwards put on the most fantastic feast.

      This was Len Evans – restauranteur, vigneron and general lover of good eating.

      On that night he made the most fantastic New York Cheese Cake served warm and washed down with bottles of Taittinger Champagne.

      This may even have been as good as your 3 pies meal.

      We sang a few Welsh songs but his favourite was Troite’s Chant from Dylan Thomas.

      This isn’t us of course but I like the intro on this:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=orHtAhU8qP0

      KK

      40

  • #
    pat

    the MSM is toxic. listening to people calling in to radio talk shows, I have not heard a single person even mention Turnbull, yet -

    Daily Telegraph: Samantha Maiden: Leadership challenge against PM Tony Abbott by Malcolm Turnbull ‘inevitable’, Liberal MPs say
    The Communications Minister has been traversing the country in recent weeks, posting pictures of his movements on social media in a not-so-subtle message he is ready for the top job.
    In an olive branch to his enemies, Mr Turnbull will pledge not to open up old divisions by calling for an emissions trading scheme and stick to the existing climate change policy if elected leader…

    Daily Telegraph: Samantha Maiden: Open warfare erupts in Abbott government, with some Liberal MPs predicting a leadership challenge against Prime Minister

    Sky News: One senior Liberal has told News Corp that Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s leadership is ‘done and dusted’, claiming Malcolm Turnbull is the future.

    ABC: Chris Uhlmann: Tony Abbott likely to face Liberal leadership spill regardless of result of Canning by-election
    The ABC has spoken to eight ministers and six believe Tony Abbott will be challenged no matter what happens at the Canning by-election in Western Australia next Saturday.
    “And this time I think they will get him,” one minister said.

    AFR: Laura Tingle: Canning: Blind faith, not science, now Abbott’s only hope
    At the same time, the “empty chair” leadership alternative has been filled by default: conservative ministers and MPs who were not prepared to countenance Malcolm Turnbull in February have felt the cold chill of certain election loss creeping up their legs…

    SMH: Peter Hartcher: Canning byelection: win can’t save Prime Minister Tony Abbott from leadership challenge
    Some of Malcolm Turnbull’s advocates in the party are urging him to challenge Abbott for the leadership this week when Parliament resumes, even though the government is still in the midst of campaigning for Canning.
    A principal reason? They worry that Abbott might call an early election to head off any internal challenge. On current polling this would likely be political suicide, “but he’s crazy enough to do it”, said an MP…

    at first it was the PM’s position would be under threat if the Party lost Canning, then it was it would be under threat if they won but it was close, and now it is under threat no matter what.

    does any of this make sense given there’s a by-election this week?

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    Rick Will

    Syukuro Manabe is the hero of climate modellers. His body of work provides the foundation for all climate models. This year he gave the Michio Yania Distinguished lecture at UCLA.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wy7Qyp8AlkI

    At the 20:40 minute mark he makes a statement that if the atmosphere only had nitrogen and oxygen the earth would be colder by about 30 degrees centigrade. This is nonsense. That figure is derived assuming 30% of the incoming solar radiation does not make it to the surface; usually taken that only 240W/sq.m of the 347W/sq.m arriving makes it to the surface. That 30% has to be reflected by the atmosphere – predominantly by clouds. However if the atmosphere is transparent, with no water vapour to form clouds, then nearly all the TOA irradiation will make it to the surface apart from the small amount of the ultraviolet energy absorbed in producing ozone for example. In that case the surface temperature would average 283K; colder than present but not a snow ball that would occur if it was 30 degrees colder.

    His so-called greenhouse effect has much less consequence than he believes. The whole climate system is dominated by clouds. In more recent work Manabe has been focusing on cloud processes as he knows the various models diverge markedly in this regard:
    http://www.pnas.org/content/110/19/7568.abstract

    Given enough time and money I anticipate I will see the day when weather models are able to give reasonably accurate 7 day forecasts. As for climate models they will remain a joke for a century or more. They remain primitive tools despite 50 years of continual development.

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      tom0mason

      Yes Rick Will, it is clouds that will blow the whole modeled world apart.

      The big problem is little obversational experiment/measurement is done today to confirm what these mixed air packets of water vapor/gases/liquids/ice/particulates do as they bubble up, precipitate or not, then dissipate.

      Plenty of theory so little measurement. Measurements of every kind of cloud, and changes in all its parameters (height, weight, humidity, temperature, chemistry, air pressure through and around the cloud, etc, etc.) for its entire existance. Clouds from ground fog and up to the tropopause, to mesospheric and stratospheric clouds, to noctilucent clouds (which appear to be different story).

      There is certainly an extensive method of naming and classifying them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cloud_types, such a shame there is no difinitive, validated and verified scheme of what they are, how they work, and how long they last.
      Does the time that clouds can be observered (existence time) stay, on average, fairly constant or does it vary?
      Has the existence time of clouds lengthened, stayed the same, or shortened, on average, over the last 50, 100, or 500 years? And what would such a variation say about the global weather systems, and our climate?

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    pat

    have previously posted ABC promoting these authors;

    13 Sept: News.com.au: Emma Reynolds: How to survive the end of the world
    TSUNAMIS, cyclones, raging fires and epidemics. We keep hearing about all the ways the world could implode at any second.
    But most of us haven’t even thought about preparing for the worst.
    With natural disasters an inevitability, environmental experts say being ready isn’t just for the paranoid.
    Melbourne authors Jane Rawson and James Whitmore have co-written The Handbook, a practical guide for surviving the apocalypse, or something close…
    It may sound obvious, but Rawson and Whitmore say people need to consider whether their home is susceptible to flooding, rising sea levels or bushfire…
    “The system could be overwhelmed,” Rawson said.
    “There are serious vulnerabilities in the Australian supply chain. So much is transported by road, it’s so centralised, we’re vulnerable … If there’s a cyclone, if sea levels rise, it could break down easily if a couple of things happen at once.”
    The ultimate method to reduce risk is to switch to minimal living. Once you don’t have many possessions or an expensive home, you have less to lose. Impending disaster becomes less frightening, and you can concentrate on enjoying life instead of paying off a mortgage…
    The authors do end on a note of hope. They say that having these conversations gives us a chance to cope with climate change…
    http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/how-to-survive-the-end-of-the-world/story-fnjwvztl-1227524818123

    the writer, Emma Reynolds, moved to Australia for the SUN:

    News.com.au: Emma Reynolds
    She started out at local papers and freelanced for the likes of Reuters, the BBC and The Guardian in London before becoming a reporter and editor at the Daily Mail and MailOnline. She then got a bit too cold in England, and upped sticks to Australia.
    http://www.news.com.au/more-information/the-team/emma-reynolds

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  • #
    Just-A-Guy

    Science of Doom,

    Last week in part 4 of this series, I pointed out how outbound longwave radiation, OLR, represents air temperature near the surface of the Earth and not longwave radiation actually emitted by the Earth itself. SoD tells us that although the atmosphere is heated in a variety of ways, we can ignore those and use the 390/Wm^2(396/Wm^2), quoted by Trenberth et. al. as a valid figure for OLR from the surface! Why? Well, no reason is actually given.

    I also showed how the observed, empirically valid, measurements of longwave radiation at the base of the atmosphere, when compared to the observed, empirically valid, measurements of longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere, TOA, falsify the greenhouse effect hypothesis.

    What’s Going On In The Atmosphere? – The Standard Atmosphere – part 5a

    At the the physical boundary between solid ground and the gas right above it two well known, empirically verified, physical effects are taking place. They are heat transfer by conduction and atmospheric pressure from the weight of the air in the atmosphere.

    Where solid matter touches the gas right above it, we know there is conduction of heat. We may not know exactly how much that is on a world-wide basis, but we know it occurs.

    At the same time, the weight of the air in the atmosphere bears down on the solid matter below it.

    The combination of these two physical processes brings about a third process called convection. Because of the vast amount of air molecules that are gaining enegy via conduction, and the weight of the atmosphere bearing down on these more energetic air molecules, conduction gives way to convection. IOW, there are so many molecules with increased energy at the surface that conduction is not sufficient to disperse the additional energy to the cooler air molecules above them and so they, the hotter, more energetic air molecules begin to push their way upward against the weight of the cooler air directly above. As they push upward, they gather together to form parcels of air and as these hotter parcels force their way upwards, they carry with them the additional energy that was transfered to them via conduction at the surface. This phenomenon is what we call convection and it’s this convection that heats the rest of the atmospheric gases above the solid surface.

    As the warmer air parcels rise, the weight of the atmosphere bears down on the cooler air molecules near the surface bringing them in contact with the solid ground below which in turn causes the conduction of more heat to these cooler air molecules like before.

    We should take note and not forget that as these heated air parcels of air push their way upwards, they must lose some of the energy they acquired by conduction in the form of work. This means that in addition to the energy lost by conduction from hotter air parcels to cooler air parcels as they come into contact during these upward and downward movements, they also lose energy by performing work.

    We know empirically how much total energy is lost as air moves upward. This figure is known as the environmental lapse rate and is calculated to be ~6.49°K/km. For every 1000m in altitude, there is a decline of ~6.49°K. By the time we get to the boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere, ~17Km up on average, the atmosphere has lost so much energy that, at that height, ambient air temperature drops to an average of approx. -55°C. So, with an average surface air temperature of ~15°C, we get a loss of ~70°C. This is the observed, empirically valid, temperature at the tropopause.

    IOW, the observed temperature of the air at the surface is ~15°C and the observed temperature at the tropopause is ~ -55°C which gives us a net loss of 70°C. That lost energy is known to be lost via conduction and work by way of convection which moves warmer air parcels up allowing cooler air pascels to descend via air pressure. There is definitely energy radiating from the different molecules of radiative gases in the atmosphere. But, empirical data shows that after we take into account all of the energy transfers put together, conduction, radiation and work, total energy lost is the equivalent of ~70°C.

    Wait a minute! didn’t SoD tell us that the temperature at the TOA is ~ -18°C?

    Science of Doom wrote:

    So, we saw that the energy out of the system – from the top of atmosphere – is only 240W/m^2

    And SoD also wrote:

    What’s very interesting about this number [OLR at the surface] is that it is nowhere near 240W/m^2 – that number would represent a temperature of -18°C (about 0°F).

    In fact, if we use the spectral calculator that SoD used for some of his calculations, and which he recomends, we input -55°C = 223°K and we get a whopping 140.231 W/m^2! Read that again! 140.231W/m^2 total energy radiating from the tropopause at ~17Km up!

    So I ask the reader, SoD, and any other proponent of GHE ®, “How did the TOA get to be ~ -18°C and radiating a total of 240/Wm^2 when the tropopause is only ~ -55°C and radiating a total energy of only 140.231/Wm^2″ according to GHE ®?

    Abe

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      bobl

      That occurs because the atmosphere temperature rises after The tropopause, due to heating from UV and molecular wind (solar wind). The energy in the ionosphere is so “HOT” air is ionised into a sort of plasma. On especially solar windy days you can even see the Plasma in the form of Aurora.

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        Just-A Guy

        bobl,

        Thanks for the reply.

        You’re right. There are other factors involved in the heating of Earth’s atmosphere above the tropopause. I thought about some of the other ways that heating might occur. I chose the creation and break-up of Ozone because of the familiarity of that substance and the simplicity of explaining it.

        I also found that a cursory glance at the wikipedia sources for the ionosphere give slightly different figures for where it begins and what it’s extent is. Because those sources describe the ionosphere as extending way above the 100Km TOA used in the Earth’s Energy Budget ®, and because the measurements of radiative energy used in the SoD article don’t include all of the ionosphere, I decided not to even delve into it any deeper.

        The heating of the stratosphere due to the break-up of Ozone is suficient to prove a point.

        And that is: when the measurements of OLR are taken at the TOA, those measurements represent the amount of radiative energy leaving the atmosphere at the TOA. At that point, the atmosphere has been re-heated by effects other than OLR coming from the surface.

        Therefore,

        a) The thermal energy content of the atmosphere at the 100 Km mark was not aquired exclusively from the OLR leaving the surface.
        b) The DWIR, long-wave radiation, measured at the surface of the Earth does not represent the OLR being re-radiated back to the surface.

        By focusing only on this one thing, the explanation becomes more clear and easier to understand.

        Would you care to comment on the dificulty presented to the GHE ® by the drop in temperature at the tropopause to way below that of the temperature at the TOA? Do you think it’s correct, based on that temperature drop, that the simplistic radiative energy calculations are incorrect?

        Abe

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        • #
          tom0mason

          You may be interested to see tallbloke talkshop‘s latest on the tropopause heigh, and examines Roger Clague’s thoughts on the 2011 paper “Tropopause height at 78◦N 16◦E: average seasonal variation 2007–2010″ by C. M. Hall, G. Hansen, F. Sigernes, and K. M. Kuyeng Ruiz.

          Just to let you know…

          Thanks! – Jo

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            Just-A Guy

            tom0mason,

            Thanks for the link. I’ll read it later when I come back from work.

            Do you have any comments on my observation about the temperature discrepancy at the tropopause? My response to you below was ‘butchered’ somehow. Not once but twice. :o

            Abe

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    Just-A-Guy

    Science of Doom,

    In part 5a above, I asked SoD or any other proponent of the GHE ® hypothesis, how the TOA is so much hotter than the tropopause 83Km below if longwave radiation is the dominant method of energy transfer within the atmosphere. Of course the GHE ® hypothesis has no answer to this question.

    Fortunately, science does have have an answer to this question.

    What’s Going On In The Atmosphere? – Ozone production in the Stratosphere – part 5b

    In the stratosphere, the temperature increases with height unlike the troposphere where temperature decreases with height.

    From the wikipedia article on the stratosphere:

    The stratosphere is layered in temperature because ozone (O3) here absorbs high energy ultraviolet (UVB and UVC) radiation from the Sun and is broken down into the allotropes of atomic oxygen (O1) and common molecular oxygen (O2). The mid stratosphere has less UV light passing through it; O and O2 are able to combine, and this is where the majority of natural ozone is produced. It is when these two forms of oxygen recombine to form ozone that they release the heat found in the stratosphere.

    So, it’s the creation of ozone that heats up the stratosphere, not OLR coming from the surface. Which means that when we observe OLR at the TOA, the longwave radiation we detect and measure is not coming entirely from the surface. Part of that longwave radiation is coming from the stratosphere which has been heated up by ozone production and it’s that heat which in turn heats all the other gases in the atmosphere to the much higher temperature that we observe at the TOA.

    Conclusion

    The GHE ® hypothesis cannot account for the drop in temperature from the surface of the Earth all the way up to the tropopause. At that point, the temperature and therefore OLR is too low to account for the much higher temperature at the TOA more than 80 Km higher up.

    The GHE ® hypothesis cannot account for the rise in temperature from the tropopause all the way up to the TOA. According to the GHE ® hypothesis,there should be a steady decline in temperature from the surface of the Earth all the way up to the TOA and beyond.

    The well known mechanisms that describe the standard atmosphere in the troposphere and ozone creation in the stratosphere are sufficient to describe what it is that heats and cools the atmosphere of our planet. These effects are well known, and have been verified empirically.

    GHE ® hypothesis is dead. RIP.

    Abe

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      tom0mason

      Just-A-Guy,
      Also of note is that CO2 and water will form carbonic acid (H2CO3), and when forming this molecule it absorbs energy (it is said to be Endoergic at 43kJ/mol.) (LINK to the $paywalled$ paper “Potential Energy Surface and Vibrational Frequencies of Carbonic Acid”).

      I wonder how often carbonic acid formation happens in the atmosphere, espcially in clouds. When (energy levels) does it dissociate again to form CO2 and water?
      How is the required energy of formation accounted for in the models, and what are the IR properties of the molecules of carbonic acid as liquid, vapor, and gas?

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      • #
        Just-A Guy

        tom0mason,

        Thanks for the reply.

        Interesting article on carbonic acid in wikipedia.*

        It appears from the article that carbonic acid cannot exist at room temperature or outside of a solution. I’m guessing that for these reasons the IR properties of this substance are probably not important factors in the atmosphere.

        The sources for the article appear to be legit but I didn’t click on all of them.

        You wrote:

        Also of note is that CO2 and water will form carbonic acid (H2CO3), . . .

        Does this mean that what I wrote about the observed drop in temperatures at the tropopause to way below the temperature at the TOA was ‘worthy of note’? I was hoping to get some feedback on the analysis I presented. No luke-warmers came to the party either. Hmmm.

        Abe
        *Except for the fact that this article has been tainted, like so many others, by the warmists and is mentioned as a factor in ocean acidification reduction of alkalinity.

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        • #
          tom0mason

          Just-A Guy,

          As you may have seen I’m interested in clouds…
          My interest in carbonic acid is spurred on by the plain idea that rain (in the main :) ) is acidic and usually contains carbonic acid. I have been seeking scientific papers that would explain all the properties of this substance — when it is made, how stable it is, how and when it breaks down, etc.
          Considering how important this substance is for life there appears to be little empirical measurements and a lot of modeled conjecture about it’s properties. How much (percentage) atmospheric CO2 is dissolved and forms acid in this manner, what are the energies involved.

          What I feel is “worthy of note” is that in our damp, mix gas atmosphere, energy calculations may not appear to be quite as straightforward as first thought. If as I surmise CO2 within clouds is forming carbonic acid, and later as these clouds may dissipate to clear sky (with no precipitation), this reaction is reversed, energy is being dynamically transferred hither and yon, and probably affecting air temperatures as well as IR interactions. I find it frustrating that, on this topic, so little is written.

          Though I may be on a wild goose chase with this, it would be nice to have the all the information available, especially about clouds and their micro chemical and energy interactions that so easily cause weather changes across continental land areas.

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            Just-A Guy

            tom0mason,

            I have to tell you, Tom, I find it very strange that not one person in four days made any comment, whether for or against, my observation that the obvious discrepancy in the observed temperature at the tropopause puts a ‘kink‘ ‘gaping hole’ in the GHE hypothesis.

            It’s minus 55°K! (140.231W/m^2) Does the OLR ‘jump over’ the stratosphere and only then radiate out at the rate of 240W/m^2 (minus 18°K)?

            Why doesn’t this sound any alarms in the mind of the sceptik?

            What happened to Popper, empirical evidence, logical arguments, the scientific method?

            What’s up with that?

            Abe

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            Just-A Guy

            And half of my comment disappears into limbo? :o

            This is missing:

            I have to tell you, Tom, I find it very strange that not one person in four days made any comment, for or against, my observation that the discrepancy in the observed temperature at the tropopause puts a ‘kink‘ ‘gaping hole’ in the GHE hypothesis.

            Abe

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    Just-A-Guy

    I’ll be gone for two days. New Year Celebration. If anyone responds to my comments and they don’t get a reply, I’m not ignoring you.

    Cheers,
    Abe

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    Here in Britain the Opposition Labour Party have just elected Jeremy Corbyn as their new leader. He is likely the most extreme left MP in the House of Commons, and in the 13 years Labour were in power from 1997-2010 voted against the Government over 500 times. In his 32 years as a backbencher he did not even regularly attend the weekly meetings of Labour MPs.
    Of interest here is his environmental policies. He says
    Climate change is a threat to our very existence.
    He wants to
    - Nationalize the energy companies, likely without compensation (current market value A$400bn)

    Britain providing international leadership on climate change and the socialisation of our energy supply leading an end to the era of fossil fuels
    - A modern, green, resource-efficient economy – creating 1 million new green climate jobs
    - Ensuring everyone has access to a decent home that is low-carbon and affordable to keep warm
    - Putting people and planet first – tackling the cost of living and climate crisis together

    Corbyn has similar “way out” views on the economy, such as raising an extra £120bn (6% of GDP) by collecting taxes quicker and eliminating tax evasion and tax avoidance. Past Governments have tried and failed to collect tiny fractions of that amount.
    Any jobs going in Australia for beancounters in the private sector?

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    Paul Vaughan

    Update — hurricanes & solar activity:

    graph of multidecadal Atlantic ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) & sunspot streak deceleration:

    https://i0.wp.com/s7.postimg.org/ujm61i0jf/Atlantic_ACE_Sunspot_Streak_Deceleration.png

    That’s using annual sunspot numbers, classifying (binary yes or no) whether sunspot number is over 40, and then measuring streak-cycle deceleration. (The length of streaks above & below 40 varies primary as a function of solar cycle length.)

    Do hurricane “experts” know and understand?
    Let’s safely guess “no!”

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    Paul Vaughan

    Wasn’t David Evans mathematically suggesting memory is important in sun-climate relations?…

    Memory: A Cure for Chaos

    “demonstrates how the memory effects strangle the chaotic”

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/09/10/cheeky-pukitee-nicking-knowledge-without-acknowledgement/comment-page-1/#comment-107186

    “As the memory mounts, chaos and its traces disappear.” Chaos is “washed out because of the memory effects.”

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/09/10/cheeky-pukitee-nicking-knowledge-without-acknowledgement/comment-page-1/#comment-107188

    “Appearance of long-term memory effects [...] makes the coupling among states stronger. This feature is plainly directed against the development of the chaotic dynamics.”

    2 examples:

    1. Jose Rial’s fractional differintegral classic:

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/09/10/cheeky-pukitee-nicking-knowledge-without-acknowledgement/comment-page-1/#comment-107184

    2. multidecadal-centennial solar-geophysical observations:

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/08/11/niv-shaviv-nice-one-the-sun-still-is/comment-page-1/#comment-106030

    Hopefully Judy Curry gets the memo.

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    Bevan Dockery

    Annual Atmospheric CO2 Concentration and Temperature

    Proof as to what has happened in the Earth’s atmosphere is sitting in the records of the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG). There are 373 locations on the web site for the WDCGG most of which contain files of past atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Remarkably there are only a few locations for which temperature measurements have been recorded but 36 years of satellite temperature measurements has given us the ability to test the proposition from which the IPCC evolved, namely, that increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere was causing an increase in the global average temperature.

    In last week’s note it was shown that the seasonal variation in atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature is controlled by the rise and fall of temperature initiating the biological life cycle which in turn absorbs and emits CO2 gas into the atmosphere. This cycle of temperature rise corresponding with a fall in CO2 concentration and vice versa is in complete contradiction to the IPCC proposition. To investigate the IPCC proposition further it is necessary to eliminate the seasonal cycle from the data analysis by considering annual changes in atmospheric CO2 and temperature across the globe.

    Linear regression analysis has been applied to the annual changes in each of the CO2 concentration and the ground station temperature, where available, or the satellite lower tropospheric temperature[1] with the following results.

    Mawson, Antarctica [2], ground station data, correlation coefficient 0.064 with a probability of zero correlation of 36%.
    Satellite South Polar region temperature data, correlation coefficient 0.002 with a probability of zero correlation of 98%.

    Casey, Antarctica [3], ground station data, correlation coefficient -0.117 with a probability of zero correlation of 15%.
    Satellite South Polar region temperature data, correlation coefficient -0.025 with a probability of zero correlation of 0.6%.

    Macquarie Island [4], ground station data, correlation coefficient 0.041 with a probability of zero correlation of 51%.
    Satellite Southern Hemisphere region temperature data, correlation coefficient 0.103 with a probability of zero correlation of 10%.

    Cape Grim [5], Marrawah ground station data, correlation coefficient 0.062 with a probability of zero correlation of 19%.
    Satellite Southern Hemisphere region temperature data, correlation coefficient 0.048 with a probability of zero correlation of 32%.

    Ascension Island [6], correlation coefficient 0.20 with a negligible probability of zero correlation , relative to satellite Tropics region temperature data.

    Pacific Ocean (00N) platform [7], correlation coefficient 0.032 with a probability of zero correlation of 66% , relative to satellite Tropics region temperature data.

    Guam [8], correlation coefficient 0.084 with a probability of zero correlation of 11% , relative to satellite Tropics region temperature data.

    Mauna Loa, Hawaii [9], correlation coefficient 0.033 with a probability of zero correlation of 50% , relative to satellite Tropics Land region temperature data.

    Izańa (Tenerife, Canary Islands) [10], correlation coefficient -0.030 with a probability of zero correlation of 59% , relative to satellite Northern Hemisphere region temperature data.

    Alert, Canada [11], ground station data, correlation coefficient 0.119 with a probability of zero correlation of 6%.

    No result gave a correlation coefficient in the range +0.5 to +1.0 with a probability of zero correlation of less that 1% as could be expected from the IPCC thesis. For this assortment of locations, the correlation coefficients ranged from -0.117 to +0.20 with a mean of 0.044 and the probability of zero correlation coefficient ranged from negligible to 98% with no obvious overall conclusion to be drawn. However the following results were in clear contradiction of the IPCC thesis of CO2 induced global warming :-
    Mawson satellite data,
    Casey ground and satellite data,
    Izańa satellite data.
    As the above study only involved a few of the 373 locations for which data is available on the WDCGG Web site, there is scope for a far more detailed investigation. There is certainly no justification in these results for mandatory CO2 reduction or for renewable energy targets.

    References:
    [1] http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt
    [2] http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/wdcgg/pub/data/current/co2/monthly/maa767s00.csiro.as.fl.co2.nl.mo.dat
    [3] http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/wdcgg/pub/data/current/co2/monthly/cya766s00.csiro.as.fl.co2.nl.mo.dat
    [4] http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/wdcgg/pub/data/current/co2/monthly/mqa554s00.csiro.as.fl.co2.nl.mo.dat
    [5] http://www.csiro.au/greenhouse-gases/
    [6] http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/wdcgg/pub/data/current/co2/monthly/asc107s00.noaa.as.fl.co2.nl.mo.dat
    [7] http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/wdcgg/pub/data/current/co2/monthly/poc900n00.noaa.as.fl.co2.nl.mo.dat
    [8] http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/wdcgg/pub/data/current/co2/monthly/gmi513n00.noaa.as.fl.co2.nl.mo.dat
    [9] http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2
    [10] http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/wdcgg/pub/data/current/co2/monthly/izo128n00.noaa.as.fl.co2.nl.mo.dat
    [11] http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/wdcgg/pub/data/current/co2/monthly/alt482n00.noaa.as.fl.co2.nl.mo.dat

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    ScotsmaninUtah

    “Two new Glaciers from a Volcano (Mount St. Helens)”

    Whilst the Scientists who support CAGW are telling us that the planet is in danger because the Global temperature is increasing, it appears that the planet is doing other things…

    http://www.bbc.com/travel/story/20150326-the-glacier-born-of-fire

    Crater Glacier has been growing consistently at four inches, and sometimes up to two feet, per day. (Credit: United States Geological Survey)

    and the hits just keep on coming … :o

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  • #
    Alfred

    Ecc. 11:4
    He that observeth the wind shall not sow ; and he that regardeth the clouds shall not reap

    Prov.20:4
    The sluggard will not plow by reason of the cold; therefore shall he beg in harvest, and have nothing

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    AndyG55

    Latest thread by Willis on WUWT shows exactly why the alarmista scammers always want to start around 1979 for their trends.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/09/13/mt-baker-glaciers-disappearing-a-response-to-the-seattle-times/#comment-2026808

    I suspect the graphs would also be a reasonable analog to Arctic sea ice.

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  • #
    pat

    give me your Super:

    4 Sept: BusinessInsider: Alex Heber: Activist And Former GetUp Director Simon Sheikh Has Just Launched An Enviro-Friendly Super Fund
    Former leader of Australian advocacy group GetUp and Australian Greens candidate Simon Sheikh is now in funds management.
    Business Insider reported Sheikh’s career change in July but today his superannuation fund Future Super has officially launched.
    Sheikh has poured about $50,000 of his own super into the fund, while the company’s executive director of operations, Adam Verwey, has tipped in $55,000.
    The diversified fund will exclude fossil fuel investments from its portfolio with Sheikh arguing superannuation investments shouldn’t contribute to climate change or environmental degradation.
    “Future Super gives Australians the option to move their superannuation savings away from fossil fuels and into socially responsible investments, to help build a world worth retiring in,” Sheikh said…
    Pointing to a research report released by The Australia Institute, Sheikh said a quarter of Australians are willing to move their super into a fund which doesn’t invest in coal or coal seam gas, estimating that potential investment pool is worth up to $247 billion…
    Also involved in the super fund is former JP Morgan VP Jemma Green and founder of Australian Ethical Investments James Their.
    http://www.businessinsider.com.au/activist-and-former-getup-director-simon-sheikh-has-just-launched-an-enviro-friendly-super-fund-2014-9

    LOL:

    Wikipedia: Jemma Green
    Jemma Green is an Australian-based, Australian environmental and social scientist, financier, activist, media commentator and author…
    She then went on to complete three degrees at University of Cambridge: Postgraduate diplomas in Sustainable Business, Cross Sector Partnership, and a Masters by research at Judge Business School and the Institute for Sustainability Leadership with her research looking at environmental risks in corporate credit ratings for the mining and oil and gas sectors globally…
    Green held various posts in investment banking between 2002 and 2004, when, she began working at investment bank J. P. Morgan in risk management. Around this time, banks were realising the need for a greater focus on corporate social responsibility in business and began recruiting to assist with the transition. In 2007, Green was chosen to help setup J.P. Morgan’s Global Environmental and Social Risk Management office where she worked reviewing the banks financing from an environmental and social perspectives in developing countries. In 2013, she resigned and repatriated to Australia…she is also on the Advisory Board to Carbon Tracker, a London-based research NGO focused on how much carbon dioxide is listed on stock exchanges around the world the, she is also on the Advisory Board of 1 Million(?) Women…
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jemma_Green

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    pat

    Former GetUp leader Sheikh’s Jemma Green says she isn’t linked to any political party!

    ABC loves Jemma. just a few examples:

    8 Sept: ABC: Lisa Scaffidi seeks third term as Lord Mayor of Perth as opponent predicts David-and-Goliath battle
    Curtin University research fellow Jemma Green has also nominated to run as a City of Perth councillor.
    She said she was ***not linked with any political parties and would run as an independent candidate.
    The former investment banker and sustainability expert has been an outspoken advocate for light rail and said she was keen for it to be a key council election issue…
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-08/city-of-perth-lord-mayor-lisa-scaffidi-to-seek-re-election/6759548

    WA farming family opts for solar power battery system over costly grid connection
    ABC Online-3 Jun 2015
    Curtin University’s Sustainability Policy Institute’s Jemma Green said the power grid will become less relevant.
    “The grid will have a place but it will become more of a back up system as electricity prices go up even further and the price of solar and batteries decline further, the economics of grid defection are going to stack up sooner…

    WA company developing new technology to access lithium as …
    ABC Online-2 Dec 2014
    Research fellow with the Sustainability Policy Institute at Curtin University, Jemma Green, says the price of larger lithium batteries is plunging.

    Senator David Leyonhjelm declares ‘coal is king’ as he launches attack on anti-coal activists
    ABC Online-26 Nov 2014
    Jemma Green, a Fellow at the Curtin University Sustainability Policy Institute in Western Australia, is also a representative of the Carbon Tracker Initiative, which has the stated aim of ‘shifting the financial markets system towards supporting a low carbon future’.
    Ms Green says the global market for coal is changing much more rapidly than many people, including Senator Leyonhjelm, recognise…

    Green energy for White Gum Valley development ‘an Australian first …
    ABC Online-17 Jun 2015
    Curtin University sustainability specialist Jemma Green said under the system, residents would pay their energy bills to the strata body…

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      pat quotes this: (my bolding here)

      Curtin University’s Sustainability Policy Institute’s Jemma Green said the power grid will become less relevant.
      “The grid will have a place but it will become more of a back up system as electricity prices go up even further and the price of solar and batteries decline further, the economics of grid defection are going to stack up sooner…

      I wonder if anyone has ever held up an image of the Sydney skyline in front of her face.

      And when you have her local Coles or Woolies consuming more power in eight minutes than her home will consume in a day, I’m wondering how many solar panels and cheap batteries it would take to keep all that going.

      I’m also betting that no one has whispered in her shell like that she’ll need a whole new set of batteries in five to seven years, and then again five to seven years after that.

      And let’s take bets on batteries becoming so cheap that, umm, everyone will be able to afford them.

      And hey, what about renters, and people who live in high rises, and old houses not worth fitting solar to, and the list goes on.

      And what about supplying power to work places, oh, and hospitals, and the rail system, and that list also goes on and on too.

      Oh dear Jemma, open mouth change feet!

      Tony.

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    handjive

    You need to know who Rachel Kyte is because she is leading the financing of the global climate change initiative and she is an avowed leftist who spoke honestly recently at a Soros-Podesta funded conference at the New Republic, an extremely far-left online publication.

    She is planning for global governance by the U.N. members, governance which will be funded with hundreds of billions of dollars from the U.S. with side agreements to keep the money flowing in perpetuity, and finally, this new global government will manage the world’s economy and land use.

    Rachel Kyte is World Bank Group Vice President and Special Envoy for Climate Change. Ms. Kyte is the leading figure for the World Bank Group in efforts to campaign for an ambitious agreement at the 21st Convention of the Parties of the UNFCC this December and she wants U.S. dollars to fund most of it.

    (independentsentinel.com)
    . . .
    Check the videos. Straight from the horses mouth.

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    pat

    from Business Insider: “also involved is…founder of Australian Ethical Investments James Their”. CORRECT SPELLING IS THIER:

    4 Sept: SMH: Amanda Saunders: Super fund aims to send fossil fuels to dustbin of history
    Former Liberal Party leader John Hewson says he expects a “proliferation” of superannuation funds that are free from fossil fuels investments, as the global divestment movement attempts to convince super members to switch into “clean” funds.
    Mr Hewson is an adviser to a new fossil-fuel free fund called Future Super, which has kicked off with about $3.6 million in savings and 100 members, and a managed investment scheme will be launched later this month.
    Future Super is co-founded by Simon Sheikh, a former national director of activist group GetUp…
    Seed capital of about $500,000 was fronted to form Future Super, including from Bendigo Bank, Simon Holmes a Court, and former ACT Greens lower house member Caroline Le Couteur…
    Adam Verwey, formerly at Australian Ethical Investment, is co-founder.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/super-fund-aims-to-send-fossil-fuels-to-dustbin-of-history-20140904-10ckp6.html

    from Adam Verwey LinkedIn:
    The Greens candidate for Fraser at 2013 Federal Election
    February 2013 – September 2013

    ethical investing or Agenda 21?

    May 2015: AFR: Samantha Hutchinson: Homebuyers forced into long-term rents in face of house price spike
    Victorian planning and architecture group Smart Urban Villages plans to build apartment buildings in South Melbourne with long leases and communal studios, worksheds and dining rooms…
    Ethical superannuation fund Future Super may back the two $25 million buildings, which are likely to have up to 50 apartments.
    “There are a lot of people locked out of the mortgage market and there’s a growing demand for housing alternatives that provide long-term accommodation without ownership,” Future Super director James Thier said…
    The pressure on Melbourne households to spend a bigger share of their pay packets on their mortgages reflects the strong house price growth in both cities, at a time when wages growth is soft.
    For this reason, the project satisfied Future Super’s investment criteria in two ways: the length of rents provide investment certainty and a solution for those in need of accommodation, while SUV’s focus on sustainability and energy efficiency brings lower power bills and a quality of build that requires less maintenance and upgrades over time, Mr Thier said…
    http://www.afr.com/news/homebuyers-forced-into-longterm-rents-in-face-of-house-price-spike-20150501-1mxpgm

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    RB

    I looked at the BOM summary of the adjustments to Rutherglen.. The third plot shows a convincing reason to adjust Rutherglen.

    I downloaded the monthly mean minimum temperature data for Rutherglen and Wagga Wagga Research station (1948-2003) and plotted these for months with overlapping data.. Both show a very small cooling trend of <0.01°C/decade and hardly diverge. How does this end up in a 1.3 degree correction to one?

    I looked at the difference in monthly mean min temperatures and the average of the first 60 months is 0.1°C larger than the last 60, although it does range from 2-3°C in between and the SD is about 1 (the differences vary fairly randomly by ±2°C).

    It looks like some fortuitous missing data and the use of annual temperatures paints a different picture.

    Also, such huge variation would be due to natural weather patterns changing and you should see it in the big difference in annual temperature changes between the towns. The difference between towns should vary by ±0.4°C so a drop of half a degree in regional temperatures should hardly show up as close to equal drops in temperature at three nearby stations as in the third plot.

    Homogenisation seems to have corrected natural weather patterns as well.

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    handjive

    The worst B-Grade Movie Evah!

    Godzilla El Nino vs. the blob: ‘The mighty Godzilla will prevail’

    “But University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences professor (and fellow weather blogger) Cliff Mass says only one can survive, and the two will engage in a meteorological battle that will rival those found on late night monster movies.”
    ~ ~ ~
    Fed Upgrade El Nino to Strong, but Not as Big as 1997-98

    WASHINGTON — Federal forecasters upgraded this year’s El Nino to an unusual strong status, but said it’s probably not a record breaker or drought buster.

    Mike Halpert, deputy director of the federal Climate Prediction Center, said the current worldwide weather shifting event doesn’t match the monster El Nino of 1997-1998, nor is it likely to.
    . . .
    The Blob Won. 3% defeated the 97%!

    On cue, the Conversation, of “academic rigour & journalistic flair” …

    “‘Godzilla’ El Niño: time to prepare for mega-droughts”

    It’s the return of the Great Pumpkin. Except more pathetic.

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    handjive

    Doomsday Update:

    Some Mormons stocking up amid fears that doomsday could come this month (saltlaketribune)

    Mixing a brew of biblical prophecies, the Hebrew calendar, a volatile economy, world politics, a reported near-death experience and astronomical occurrences, hordes of Utahns have become convinced that calamitous events are imminent — maybe by month’s end — and are taking every precaution.

    A lot of customers, he says, believe “this is the month it will all happen — with a ‘blood moon’ and a currency collapse and everything.”

    Here’s how the doomsday scenario plays out: History, some preppers believe, is divided into seven-year periods — like the Hebrew notion of “shemitah” or Sabbath. In 2008, seven years after 9/11, the stock market crashed, a harbinger of a devastating recession. It’s been seven years since then, and Wall Street has fluctuated wildly in recent weeks in the wake of China devaluing its currency.

    Thus, they believe, starting Sept. 13, the beginning of the Jewish High Holy Days, there will be another, even larger financial crisis, based on the United States’ “wickedness.” That would launch the “days of tribulation” — as described in the Bible.

    They say Sept. 28 will see a full, red or “blood moon” and a major earthquake in or near Utah. Some anticipate an invasion by U.N. troops, technological disruptions and decline, chaos and hysteria.
    . . .

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    • #
      tom0mason

      Sorry Utahns, but most modern economic downturns are scheduled for mid-Otober to the end of November.
      Failing that they are often rescheduled for the following spring.

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    Dave in the states

    The subject of EVs came up during last week. Just in case anybody missed the Top Gear classic:

    http://www.topgear.com/videos/jeremy-clarkson/electric-cars-day-trip-part-12-series-17-episode-6

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    • #
      David Maddison

      Thanks for that Dave. That reminds me, what ever happened to “Peak Oil”. You don’t hear much about that any more. Meanwhile I’m having a blast with my 6 litre V8 (366 cid).

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    David Maddison

    Does anyone remember the community owned cooperative wind farm installed in Hepburn, Victoria. Supposedly it was going to make a profit and pay dividends to the members. I wonder how that is going? http://www.hepburnwind.com.au

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    • #
      Rollo

      David, I’m sure that with the appropriate subsidies, increased power prices and more creative diversion of other peoples money it could make a profit.

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  • #
    pat

    as GetUp features in my earlier comments, want to post this for those in WA to maybe checkout!

    14 Sept: Bolt Blog: This is not a Turnbull challenge but a sabotage
    Page 5 comment:
    by RightWingNuclearArmedDeathRabbit
    11,000 plus new enrolements have been recorded in the Canning electorate
    This is a 10.8 % increase since the last election, way above the national average of 1.37%
    It appears that those not actually living in the electorate are registering , so they can vote in absenteeism
    So who are these phantom voters?
    I appears GetUp is behind this attempt at electoral fraud
    Dr Amy McGrath who has been researching voter fraud, wrote in her book “ Wolves In Australia “ in 2013
    “Given the intensity of far-left GetUP Campaigning in 3 past elections … a new bag of tricks called PlanningAlerts, … lists addresses of applications to local Councils for buildings being built, knocked down, or changing hands. PlanningAlerts is not as innocent as it sounds. … GetUP’s building lists provide possibilities for false enrolments faster than in the past … Such stacking of an Electoral Roll may be difficult to detect in that names roll-stacked are taken off shortly after the election. One case verified by the Australian Electoral Commission …”
    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/this_is_not_a_turnbull_challenge_but_a_sabotage/P80/

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    el gordo

    ‘…on climate change, I am neither a sceptic nor a denier. I have read widely and talked to scientists, but I am not a scientist. Maybe climate change is cyclic? I do not know…’

    Bob Baldwin

    Wonder how the BoM audit is going.

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    pat

    much more at the link:

    13 Sept: RTCC: Ed King:EU to discuss strategy for Paris climate change summit
    CRIB NOTES SEPT 14-18: Brussels outlines COP21 plans, General Assembly gathers in NYC, WWF releases global oceans study
    Europe decides
    Countries are primed to thrash out their strategy for the Paris climate summit this week.
    That means coming to a common position on loss and damage (climate compensation), what the bloc can do to help global adaptation efforts, a possible target for a long term climate goal and – the elephant in the Council chamber – money!…
    Wolff and Zachmann (researchers at the Brussels-based Bruegel Institute) argue that part of the €8 billion in annual fiscal revenues for member states could be set aside for climate funding, and suggest a carbon tax “on the carbon content of transport and heating fuels” could also raise funds…
    BP blacklisted
    The oil-major’s sponsorship of the British Museum was highlighted by youth groups at the weekend, who invaded the prestigious gallery and launched a series of demonstrations at its front entrance in the central atrium. The company has supported the museum since 1996…
    http://www.rtcc.org/2015/09/13/eu-to-discuss-strategy-for-paris-climate-change-summit/

    11 Sept: Bruegel Institute: European climate finance: securing the best return
    There is a European interest in getting a global climate deal in Paris that entails high mitigation ambitions and involves the EU in shaping the global climate-finance architecture
    By: Guntram B. Wolff and Georg Zachmann
    An extended version of this paper was presented at the ECOFIN meeting in Luxembourg on 11 September 2015. Click here to download it (LINK)…
    Climate finance is the most important tool the EU has to make a (Paris) deal likely.
    ***A strong and unified EU position backed by common resources would increase the EU’s ability to shape the emerging international climate institutions and their governance, to ensure that climate finance is used to reduce mitigation costs and to ensure that European industry benefits from the opportunities related to climate finance…
    http://bruegel.org/2015/09/european-climate-finance-securing-the-best-return/

    ***indeed.

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  • #
    Ross

    I hope you Aussies are not going to let Turnbull get his way. It looks like Abbott needs a bit of extra moral support again. But if the Libs win the Canning bi election then after this game playing by Turnbull , Abbott might have the ammunition he needs to finally give him the boot.

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    • #
      el gordo

      I don’t think it has anything to do with Turnbull, its a media frenzy without foundation.

      The upcoming reshuffle is planned to rejuvenate the government, by getting rid of the deadwood in time for the election.

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      • #
        Ross

        Well el gordo , it looks like it is all on. It will be the end of at least one of them. I hope it is Turnbull. Despite what the Aussie press says a lot of us Kiwis have quite a lot of respect for Abbott.
        ( not our MSM , who are like sheep and swallow the Fairfax line)

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    pat

    TonyfromOz -

    Fairfax publishes some truths about coal. will ABC do likewise?

    14 Sept: Australian Financial Review: Greg Evans: Coal remains best solution to energy poverty
    (Greg Evans is executive director – coal at the Minerals Council of Australia)
    The striking and underappreciated thing about these new coal plants is that they are reducing carbon dioxide emissions by between 25 and 40 per cent. Compared with some of the oldest generating plants, the emissions savings are up to 50 per cent. In addition, when coupled with the latest technology, they also virtually eliminate particulate pollution.
    A new report by the International Energy Agency’s Clean Coal Centre presents some startling new data on the adoption of these technologies in 10 countries in East Asia. From negligible levels a decade ago, nearly 40 per cent of coal-fired electricity capacity in these countries is now supercritical and ultrasupercritical.
    Many countries, including China, are now mandating the use of the best available ultrasupercritical technologies in new power plants. And there is fierce competition between the technology providers from Japan, China, France and Germany to win business in the fast growing nations of developing Asia that plan to double their coal generation over the next 25 years…
    That’s why, according to the IEA report, coal power plants with a massive 672 gigawatts of capacity are under construction or planned in Asian economies. That’s 2¼ times the entire US coal-fired generation capacity or 24 times Australia’s coal-generation capacity…
    It is good news for hundreds of millions of people in Asia who still have limited or no access to power…
    http://www.afr.com/opinion/critical-technology-makes-coal-acceptable-as-cheap-power-20150913-gjlepj

    Asia accelerates low emissions coal revolution, says IEA
    Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam – was drawn from 670 high efficiency, low emissions coal-fired power generation units. The units are known as supercritical and …
    Australian Financial Review · 7 hours ago

    Australian has similar, behind paywall:

    Hi-tech coal plants good news for locals amid global warming debate
    The research finds that if the latest “ultra-supercritical” technology was applied … Despite a wave of bans on coal by multilateral lenders, Japan has designated loans for coal plants in India, Indonesia and Bangladesh …
    The Australian · 13 hours ago

    but our PM is a coal fool!!!

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    • #

      See this where pat quotes this: (my bolding here)

      That’s why, according to the IEA report, coal power plants with a massive 672 gigawatts of capacity are under construction or planned in Asian economies.

      Now, refer back to my original comment at Comment Number 1 at the top here.

      So, just to keep parity at the current percentage for wind and solar of 3%, they need to construct in that same time frame a further 2240GW of Capacity for wind and solar.

      The current existing whole of World total for wind and solar is around 450GW of Capacity.

      And THAT is something that will never be achieved.

      In fact, if even half of those coal fired plants go forward, then wind and solar percentage will actually go backwards, and probably by half.

      I’m willing to bet that you will NEVER hear that, mainly because it’s just too hard to wrap your head around, and journalists, even if they do check it out, and actually find the truth, they will NEVER write it for fear of being laughed at, and their Editors just flat out refusing to even allow it to go to print.

      There is just no understanding about this at all. They can close down every coal fired plant in the already Developed World, (and trust me, that will never be allowed to happen) and wind and solar will never raise that percentage.

      I say it and get howled down, because no one wants to hear it, and even then, no one will even attempt to find out about it, let alone understand it.

      We’re going to reach 2030 and people will be scratching their heads, wondering what actually happened with wind and solar, despite the trillions that will have been thrown at them. Keep in mind also, that nearly every currently existing wind and solar plant will need to be replaced by then also.

      This is something that will never be achieved.

      Luckily, long before then, people will finally begin to ask the ….. correct questions.

      Tony.

      PostScript – Think about it. I actually sound crazy just saying all this. Truth will out.

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    pat

    10 Sept: Breitbart: Donna Rachel Edmunds: Government’s Climate Representative Inflicted ‘Heavy Damage’ On Britain’s Reputation at Russian Conference
    One of Britain’s leading energy experts has written to the Foreign Secretary to strongly criticise the appointment of Sir David King, the government’s former Chief Scientific Advisor, as Britain’s representative at the upcoming international Climate Conference in Paris…
    In a letter to the Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond, which has been published in full on the Not A Lot Of People Know That blog, Mr Henney has listed a number of those errors. They include an incident in 2004 in which Prof King, at the time the Government’s chief advisor, attended an international seminar organised by the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow, where his first act was to claim “that two thirds of the invitees were “undesirable” and should not be allowed to speak.” …
    He then walked out of the seminar after he was unable to answer a question on the melting of snow on Mount Kilimanjaro…
    At the conclusion of the seminar, Alexander Illarionov, Chief Economic adviser to Putin, gave an angry press conference, the text of which is included in Mr Henney’s letter, in which illarionov stated:
    “These papers [presented by King and his team] differed dramatically from what is usually offered at international congresses and conferences. Simultaneously, they revealed an absolute – and I stress, absolute – inability to answer questions concerning the alleged professional activities of the authors of these papers…READ ALL
    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/09/10/governments-climate-representative-inflicted-heavy-damage-on-britains-reputation-at-russian-conference/

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    warcroft

    Strongest El Nino EVAAARRRR!!!

    Coming to a climate crisis near you!

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    pat

    SPOT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BBC’S HEADLINE AND THE OPENING LINE:

    14 Sept: BBC: Roger Harrabin: Next two years hottest, says Met Office
    The next two years COULD BE the hottest on record globally, says research from the UK’s Met Office…
    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-34226178

    shame on you, BBC.

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      tom0mason

      Oh no!
      Beware the Harrabin harbinger of habitat hell…
      The sciency clairvoyant of climate catalysms…
      Roger the augur of anthroprogenic annihilation…
      :evil:
      Woe, woe, and thrice woe!
      :mrgreen:

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      AndyG55

      “The next two years COULD BE the hottest on record globally,”

      It all depends on if Gavin et al can swing the adjustments !!

      realistically.. NOPE

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    Roy Hogue

    Here is something very unusual for you — the Fly Geyser in Nevada. It began with an attempt to drill a well deep enough to get irrigation water for crops but instead they hit hot water at about 200 °F, very near the boiling point (212 °F). After several attempts over the years to get usable irrigation water from it, it was left uncapped and what you see in this short video is the result of the mineral rich water flowing out onto the ground. It’s a beautiful display and quite unique. A whole ecosystem has grown up around it, complete with fish swimming in the hot water. And how on earth did fish arrive in the middle of the hot dry Nevada desert?

    It’s on private land and the owners don’t permit anyone to get to it unless you can convince them to let you. So very few get to see it.

    Enjoy!

    I hope it runs for everyone.

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    el gordo

    ‘The real point, as I have observed here before, is that, on a whole range of issues, from the EU to climate change, the BBC is so lost in its own groupthink that it simply does not recognise just how biased it is. And the point about people who have become caught up in groupthink is that, whenever anyone dares question it, they can only respond with a flood of angry intolerance – as Mr Naughtie again so neatly demonstrated last week.’

    Christopher Booker

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      tom0mason

      BBC employees are all part of Unionize labor.
      Employees, including management, within the BBC are paying union dues whether they wish to be part of a union or not.

      The BBC insists this is not a ‘closed shop’ but an agreement between staff and union. I can tell you, some feel it is a ‘closed shop’.

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