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History rewritten? BoM wrong on “first” July cyclone, forgets 1935, 1954, 1962

Cyclones down the memory hole?

Newspaper report, Cyclone, 1935, July,

July 1935, Click to enlarge | Trove

A weak tropical cyclone has formed off the Solomon Islands, and the BOM is reporting that there has never before been a July cyclone in the Queensland region. But Warwick Hughes has already posted up details showing that there have been quite a few cyclones in July. The cyclone is hardly extraordinary, and certainly not “historic”, but what about the BOM?

Forecaster David Grant on the ABC:

“We’ve never had a July tropical cyclone in the Queensland region before.

Australia has only had one other officially declared July cyclone, which formed off Western Australia in 1996.

The official tropical cyclone season runs from November 1 to April 30.”

The July cyclone “first” scores headlines in both The Australian and The Courier Mail. “Queensland weather forecasters record first cyclone in July “. But it’s wrong. Commenter Siliggy on Warwick Hughes site found a HardenUp link listing cyclones and storms in Queensland. Some of the older July cyclones listed below may not qualify as “cyclones” under the new scale, but some clearly did — and rather than being far to the north near the Solomons, cyclonic winds of 70 knots were recorded as far south as Tweed Heads in July 1962. The BoM is supposed to give Australians the full picture of our climate, not mislead people into thinking that our climate is changing when it has always been highly variable.

It is deceptive of the BOM not to let Australian’s know about our real climate history:

From the HardenUp link listing cyclones and storms in Queensland.

17-19 Jul 1889
Cyclone near Rockhampton 17th, Brisbane 18th then moved east. Gales and heavy seas on north and Central coasts of NSW. Vessels lost Fraser Island to Coffs Harbour.

28 Jul 1919
Cyclone passed southwards between New Caledonia and Queensland. Ships driven on Barrier Reef southeast of Mackay.

22-24 July 1921
Cyclone from NE struck northern NSW coast causing gales and shipping disruptions before recurving to SE. Disastrous floods SE Qld and northern NSW. Goondiwindi, Warwick and Roma flooded. Several houses washed away and 2 men drowned at Texas. A man drowned at Inglewood. Heavy stock and crop losses and damage to roads and bridges.

29-30 Jun 1929
Cyclone recurved to SE just to NE of Cape Moreton with gales and heavy rain. Much damage at Sandgate. Flooding in Pine and Nerang Rivers.

7 July 1931
Cyclone developed SE Qld and moved towards the SE. High winds Brisbane.

10-11 Jul 1933
Cyclone recurved over Broadsound and Rockhampton towards southeast. Floods Central Q.

7-10 July 1935
Cyclone recurved over Shoalwater Bay and moved towards SE. Gales. SS Maheno driven ashore. Heavy rain Central Q. (See other Trove newspaper reports). “Waves 30 feet high“. Boats were caught in a “harrowing” experience.

11-13 Jul 1954

Complex cyclonic system crossed coast near Bundaberg and then recurved towards SE. Winds to hurricane force left a trail of damage along the coast south from Bundaberg. Woman killed at Nambour Houses when shed was lifted by wind and hurled into her . House, shops , jetties and boats were badly damaged. 200 people were left homeless, hundreds of small craft were wrecked. Many houses unroofed including 50 at Caloundra. Hurricane force winds in Moreton Bay with widespread property and boat damage at Redcliffe, Sandgate and Wynnum. The Redcliffe jetty was badly damaged by large waves with most of the decking forced upwards and ripped off. The Dutch naval sloop Snellius reported waves to 21 metres off the South Coast.

9-11 Jul 1962
Cyclone developed NE of Fraser Island and moved past Gold Coast. 60 to 70 knot winds reported from Tweed Heads to Yamba in the 24 hours to 9am 11th. Local Flash floods Brisbane to Gold Coast. Fruit trees damaged buildings flattened Sunnybank. Small boats wrecked, buildings flattened, extensive beach erosion and roads damaged Gold Coast. Radio Mast wrecked Lytton. Widespread flooding Nerang, Albert and Logan Rivers.
In NSW Small craft lost or damaged at North Coast harbours. Bad floods Murwillumbah, Lismore, Bellingen and Grafton with many evacuations and people drowned. At 1pm 9th 2 waterspouts came ashore at Port Macquarie and left a trail of destruction. 3 men were killed when a 2 story building they were building was wrecked. 30 house were damaged. Largest 24 hr rain totals 265mm Springbrook and 227mm Lismore.

18-21 Jul 1965
Cyclone developed east of Brisbane, moved up to Fraser Island and then turned southwards over Brisbane, then down to Yamba and then seawards.
Wind gusts to 60 knots recorded at the Bureau in Brisbane. There was much damage to small structures in the metropolitan area and 3 houses were unroofed. Trees were uprooted, plate glass windows smashed and telephone and power lines downed. Along the Bay many small craft were damaged. There was much crop damage in surrounding areas. Fallen trees and floods blocked roads. 24 hour rainfall rain totals in Brisbane were up to 236mm on th 20th. And 510 mm fell in 24 hrs at Springbrook. The upper trough associated with the development of the cyclone brought snow into the tropics for the first time on record. Scattered falls were reported on the 19th from the Central Highlands through the northern Warrego to the Darling Downs and Maranoa. Further north snow fell west of Mackay at Dalrymple Heights and Blue Mountain. Sleet was observed at Nebo and Clermont and on the 20th Thangool reported snow.

5-8 Jul 1973
Cyclone developed east of Mackay (5th) and moved down just seawards of the Sunshine Coast by 7th. It then moved back up north to the east of Yeppoon. Four people drowned on the evening of the 8th. Two near Nambour when the car went into a creek and two near Yandina after their car became stranded. Average winds of 40 to 55 knots were reported along the South Coast from 8 am 5th until 10pm 8th. A ship reported average winds of 60 knots off Stradbroke Island at 3pm 6th while another ship reported winds of 74 knots off the Gold Coast at 3pm 7th. Trees and power line were brought down throughout southeast Qld causing widespread blackouts. Some houses were unroofed at Kingaroy and near Warwick. The South Nobby wave recording station on the Gold Coast reported significant wave heights to 5.2 metres and maximum wave heights to 8.7 metres.
The 1600 ton cargo ship Cherry Venture was driven ashore 1.5 km south of Double Island Point on the afternoon of the 8th after foundering in “forty foot waves”.
Twenty four rainfall totals recorded 9am 8th included 384mm Nambour; 349mm Woodford; 340 Mapleton; 335mm Maleny and 328mm Springbrook(7th ) . Many roads in southeast Qld were cut by floods and in Gympie 6 feet of water was over Mary St on the night of the 8th. The Mary R at Gympie peaked at 19.6 metres at 2am on the 9th with houses shops and factories under 2 m of water.

29-30 Jul 1979
Cyclone developed to the NE of Fraser Island moved down just to the east of Brisbane and then turned eastwards out to sea. Gales along the Gold Coast. The Brisbane wave recording station (7 km east of Point Lookout) recorded significant (peak) wave heights of 4.7m (8.7m) on 30 July.

Australian severe weather, which lists all BOM tropical cyclones, shows cyclone 127 as a July cyclone 1n 1935.

The BOM is clutching at straws,
With reports that are riddled with flaws,
As they do all they can,
To pin cyclones on man,
In support of the failed warmist cause.

– Rauiri

What’s a cyclone and what’s a bad storm?

The BOM cyclone scale shows that a category 1 cyclone has wind speeds of over 48 knots (89 km/hr), though it’s ambiguous because they say the winds correspond to  “Beaufort scale 8 or 9″, which they then list as 34-47 knots (62 -88 km/hr). Storms with winds above 64 knots, or 118 km/hr, are considered to be “hurricanes”.

If readers can find wind speeds mentioned in the Trove archives, I will add those links to this list.

Thanks to Warwick, Lance, and Ken

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History rewritten? BoM wrong on "first" July cyclone, forgets 1935, 1954, 1962, 8.8 out of 10 based on 92 ratings

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144 comments to History rewritten? BoM wrong on “first” July cyclone, forgets 1935, 1954, 1962

  • #
    gnome

    I was at a tropical fruitgrowers farm at morning teatime yesterday when this was being discussed, and even the old-timers who believe in the global warming hoax were sceptical about this.

    There was lots of discussion about sea temperatures and what the term “Queensland” means (with general agreement that somewhere north of the Solomon Islands didn’t qualify). The BoM have overreached badly with this one.

    452

    • #
      ColA

      Jo,

      It is always good to see plenty of people checking these records and proving the BoM and ABC are wrong again. But it would be far better if we also wrote to the BoM and the ABC and our local papers and told them of the errors. It’s all about squeaky wheels and making “Joe Blow” aware that they should not always believe the BoM and ABC.

      21

      • #
        Barry

        With the greatest of respect, ColA, they are not ‘errors’ on the part of the BOM and ABC. They are part of an agenda.

        10

        • #
          Barry

          More to the point, we have to ask YET AGAIN, why the Abbott government is allowing our money to be spent in this way.

          00

  • #
    Pauly

    Also there is cyclone 379 in the BOM record, formed in June, but continued to July in 1964.

    231

  • #
    Ken Stewart

    The BOM and ABC got this badly wrong. But the interesting thing is that there is/was another TC due north on the other side of the Equator. The combination of these two means a westerly wind burst along the Equator, feeding warm water and air into the Nino regions. This could intensify the El Nino. On the other hand, maybe its a symptom of El Nino conditions.
    Incidentally I remember several of these events- the 1954 cyclone, 1973 (the Cherry Venture was big news), and the sleet in 1965. That was dreadfully cold, and I was outside working (on the family farm).

    342

    • #
      Chris. in Newtown, PA.

      Ken, I knew they got it wrong.

      In 1954 I was 10 years old, on the 17th. and was on holidays with my parents at Byron Bay.
      The eye of the cyclone went right over Byron Bay in the middle of the night. It went so quiet, the silence woke us all up. We all went outside, and looking up, we could see the almost full moon, and could see the clouds circulating around. No rain, just still and silent, very eyrie. I’ll never forget it.
      Within half and hour or less the wind came back and we got hammered again.

      Next morning there was wreckage all around town and half the Byron Bay jetty was gone !

      BTW & O/T. On the 16th. this month, it is 70 years since the first atomic test at Trinity, south of Los Alamos. A moment that changed the world.

      Chris..

      351

      • #

        It’s great to get these eye witness accounts. Thank you.

        242

        • #
          spangled drongo

          Jo, in July 1967 a cyclone formed in the tropics near Willis Is. and gave Qld larry dooley.

          Many of those winter cyclones impacted heavily on the Gold Coast during the ’60s to the extent where Bruce Small, Bernie Elsey and others built a 20 mile long sea wall to protect ocean front real estate. I remember pushing car bodies over the cliff at Garfield Terrace to save Garfield Towers, possibly the first high rise building there. Also remember sand bagging what are now multi-million dollar Hedges Ave homes to stop them falling into the wild surf. We didn’t save them all.

          121

          • #
            Chris. in Newtown, PA.

            Hi SD,
            Not important, but I think you will find that “Kinkabool” in Hanlan Street, was the very first high rise in Surfers Paradise.
            Chris.

            00

            • #
              Chris. in Newtown, PA.

              I thought I had better check on that, getting a bit old now and I can’t trust my memory everyday.
              But here you go.
              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinkabool

              Kinkabool is a heritage-listed apartment block at 32-34 Hanlan Street, Surfers Paradise, Queensland, Australia. It was designed by John M. Morton of Lund Hutton Newell Black & Paulsen and built from 1959 to 1960 by J D Booker Constructions (Gold Coast) Pty Ltd. It was added to the Queensland Heritage Register on 5 February 2009.[1]

              Prior to the 1950s Surfers Paradise was just one of a number of popular but modestly equipped beach holiday resorts that dotted the coast from Southport to the State border with New South Wales. During that decade it became the epicentre of the Gold Coast and what would become an internationally renowned holiday destination, instantly recognisable for its high-rise towers lining a long strip of sandy beach. This iconic image of Gold Coast high-rise development began with the construction of Kinkabool in 1959-1960.[1]

              I found the article on Wiki interesting and brought back lots of memories.

              Chris.

              20

            • #
              spangled drongo

              Chris, Yes, Kinkabool was the first high rise in SP but it isn’t on the ocean front in Garfield Terrace. Which is where this activity was as I said above.

              30

      • #
        James Bradley

        Chris,

        Strange how a strong testimony such as yours would be treated as direct evidence in any jurisdiction.

        I bet it would be brushed off as anecdotal by the BoM if you were interviewed by the ABC about Byron Bay in 1954.

        231

        • #
          Chris. in Newtown, PA.

          Thanks James,

          Not many people listen anymore, they think I’m just a “silly old goat”.
          The young ones at the BOM don’t think us “Oldies” remember things.

          Chris.

          111

    • #
      Peter C

      CHERRY VENTURE, wrecked on 8 July 1973 on the south Queensland coast at Double Is Point (near Noosa) amid gale force winds.

      http://www.abc.net.au/backyard/shipwrecks/qld/cherryventure.htm

      nb: Gale Force Winds are 62-75kph (fresh Gale) and nb75-88 kph (strong Gale)
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale

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      • #
        spangled drongo

        Peter Vaggelas made an enormous effort to salvage the Cherry Venture. After buying the handsome wreck for $10,000 he got her floating in a dredged hole with a line to an offshore tug but waddya know? Along comes another cyclone and washes her up higher and dryer than ever.

        Like the Maheno in 1935. Victims of winter cyclones.

        The cyclones were so numerous in those days that if you sailed a boat up to the reef from the south, you had to go right round the continent to get home ☺.

        We’ve hardly seen a cyclone south of the Tropic of Capricorn since “global warming” started in 1976.

        131

    • #
      King Geo

      Do BOM and the ABC get secret funding from the UN/IPCC? It makes you wonder given their obsession promoting the UN/IPCC’s “Theory of AGW”. Never ever do these two Aussie Govt funded entities give the other side of the story even when it is blatantly obvious that the “Theory of AGW” is at total odds with the UAH & RRS Global Temp data of the Lower Atmosphere.

      191

      • #
        ivan

        Isn’t there some meeting going to be held in Paris soon? Maybe that has something to do with the BoM stupidity.

        161

      • #
        Skeptik

        Perhaps they should preface their statements with “Since the advent of colour television”

        30

    • #
      Michael

      East Coast Low
      Learn the difference.
      All ‘tropical cyclones’ are ‘cyclones’
      Not all ‘cyclones’ are ‘tropical cyclones’

      10

      • #
        Aussie

        well that has to be true because the April storm that we experienced on the Central Coast was a cyclone. It was a category 2 and it touched down at Norah Head.

        First of all this was my second experience with a cyclone, since I also experienced Cyclone Aivu in 1989 when living in Townsville. During that experience the eye of the storm passed over Townsville at around 8.00 am when we walked outside the building where we were sheltering. It was very eerie.

        My experience with the cyclone on the Central Coast was that of the strong winds, as well as the damage in the surrounding area with lots of uprooted trees. I have noted that the press called it a severe storm but NO, it was a cyclone. From my house I watched as the trees were swaying along the Pacific Highway. It was like deja vu. I had seen trees swaying like that in Townsville. It was definitely cyclonic.

        Jo, you are right to point this out and I had already guessed that another lie was being told about that weak cyclone that had appeared a long way off the Australian coast. I did not believe that it was a first and am not surprised that you have dug up evidence to prove that once again the BOM has been lying to the Australian population.

        11

  • #
    Peter Miller

    Given enough time, it would be no surprise if the BOM homogenised these cyclones down to a gentle shower. They are required to remain on message and that message is Thermageddon is almost upon us.

    This is 2015, the year of Paris. The first casualties on the climate front will be facts and the truth.

    Unfortunately, 2015 is also an El Niño year and global temperatures may rise circa 0.5 degrees C above normal. The last few days have seen above normal global temperatures, so expect lots of bleating and screeching about this from alarmists, who can be relied upon to conveniently forget to also mention that this is an El Niño year.

    331

    • #
      Binny

      Yes people are wetting their pants over El Nino, and the possibility of an above average warm year.
      However temps have to get well above 98 for them to have a case, the same or slightly less proves the opposite.
      But I will beat big money anything above average will get world headlines. With no mention of 98 if it’s the same or less.

      81

  • #
    Mycroft

    What do we (skeptics) expect? We have the COP meeting in Paris coming up in December! And the real deniers have to have plenty of scare stories to make themselves feel good! BBC are running the Hottest July day ever over here in the Uk…except it was recored at Heathrow airport!!!!LOL !

    210

  • #
    Yonniestone

    Deceptive is a very polite description of this oversight, an oversight that is inexcusable for proclaimed paid professionals mind you!

    210

  • #
    Andrew

    Seems in the Great Depression era, it was normal – every 2nd year had a July cyclone despite the significant disadvantage of not having satellites and Doppler radar to spot them. Of course, since that was the hottest decade evah (pre-adjustments) maybe there is something to this. Lucky the 21st century cool period has kept July cyclones to just one every 20 years.

    110

  • #
  • #
    ROM

    star commentTrove;

    Townsville Daily Bulletin [ 1907 -1954 ]

    Saturday 19th February 1927

    CYCLONES IN QUEENSLAND SINCE 1857

    The following is a list of cyclones, which have occurrod in Queensland since 1857.
    Compiled from the official record is in the possesion of the Department of Meteorolgy. Melbourne.
    By the “Courier”

    [ list of cyclones, dates, locations and damage which is impressive ]

    DISTRIBUTION OF CYCLONES.
    The distribution of cyclones in Queensland for each month during the period under review is as follows: —
    Janurary. 33;
    February. 27:
    March 32;
    April. 14;
    May. 6;
    June, 8;
    July 7
    August. 0;
    September. 5:
    October 4;
    N’ovcmbor, 2;
    December. I

    310

  • #
    TdeF

    The BOM have made it clear. They are past recording and even predicting the weather. As explained, they want to make news and sensationalize the weather and move past mere reporting to being involved in the politics. Like the ABC, we have weather activists who have no interest a balanced picture.

    There is money in the weather, fame and influence far more than study of thermometers could ever offer. Of course this statement about the cyclone is wrong, but it is arguable and that is enough to sensationalize and sensation means funding, fame, international travel and fun. The weather activists call it ‘weather intelligence;, which you have to suppose means whether they are smart enough to make real money with the weather. The ABC is the same, sick of just reporting the news, they set out to be the news, create the news, even if they have to put lives at risk.

    So if the ABC and SBS and BOM want to be money makers, they can just stop pretending to be public servants interested in the objective absolute truth be real businesses. Sell them all. Then at least we know that the facts will not be right.

    282

  • #
    Dennis

    It is important to point out that the BOM has a climate change section of manipulators

    111

  • #
    Ruairi

    The BOM is clutching at straws,
    With reports that are riddled with flaws,
    As they do all they can,
    To pin cyclones on man,
    In support of the failed warmist cause.

    301

  • #
    Crowbar

    Get Graham Lloyd to put the question to the BOM:

    “Are you certain that it was the first July cyclone in Queensland area?”
    “Because I have an historic list of cyclones that suggests otherwise.”

    170

  • #
    Graeme M

    There’s an excellent history of Severe Storms on the East Coast 1770-2008 which lists all such cyclones and gales, written by Jeff Callaghan and Dr Peter Helman in 2008. Well worth the read to get a sense of the extremes of weather over a couple of centuries. As an example, it lists the cyclone Jo shows in July 1921 as an East Coast Low. A pressure of 996hPa was recorded at Clarence River.

    120

  • #
    Don Gaddes

    Not only is the July cyclone activity not unique, it is a direct result of recent Indonesian volcanic activity – as predicted by Alex S. Gaddes in his work ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ (1990)
    Just as the Dungog flooding was a direct result of the large South American eruption in April 2015 – and the Kempsey flooding as well as the closure of Melbourne and Auckland airports was the result of South American eruptions in 2013.
    The entire planet is currently in the grip of a Five Year Solar-induced (X Factor) Orbital Dry Period, (made up of various concurrent one and two year ‘Dry Cycles’.)This is also the reason for a lack of snow (precipitation)in the Alpine regions.The temperatures are still cold enough to maintain artificial snow in the ski areas.
    If the planet is getting colder, we will observe more sea-ice, but less snow and therefore less glacier growth, (due to the current severe ‘Dry Period’.) 2020 will herald the next two year ‘Wet/Normal’ Period,(and the return of the snow.)

    51

  • #
    Neville

    I’m just reading about the GREAT STORM that hit the NSW coast from July 10th to about July 13th.
    The storm hit Newcastle, Wollongong, Nambucca heads and even hit Sydney harbour.
    At least 24 vessels were lost and at least 100 people lost their lives.
    About 40 bodies were found on the foreshore at Newcastle and a mass funeral was held.
    This comes from an old Parade magazine Nov 1965 page 30 to 31.
    Here is one reference I’ve found online.

    http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/13134328?searchTerm=great storm july 11th to 15th&searchLimits=dateFrom=1866-01-01|||dateTo=1866-12-31

    100

  • #
    Fox From Melbourne

    Our new weather Lady on Seven News in Melbourne spoke of the Cyclone last night and said that its got nothing to do with us. She sounds like she maybe a believer but at least she try’s to be a bit balanced. Something those at “THERE OWN ABC BUT YOU PAY THE BILLS”, meaning:Its their little special world that intelligence forget and OUR BILLION BILL, can at least try to learn from. Sorry one at lest can hope they can.

    91

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Fox that might be Jane Bunn, if so she’s an actual Meteorologist that doesn’t seem to wade into pro-CAGW BS.

      Sorry I don’t share your optimism with the ABC or MSM, they’re too damaged with gang-green and need amputation to save the rest of the body.

      111

  • #
    Neville

    Sorry I should have included from the start that this storm hit on July 1866.

    90

  • #

    It’s a bit like those “unprecedented” October fires a couple of years ago in the Blue Mountains, when Abbott worked on a truck through the night. Spring and even late winter are the regular fire season for many areas in NSW. How is it possible for these experts and “spokespeople” not to know? Why can’t the luvvie media spend a matter of minutes checking? (October 1951 was catastrophic, but the late winter/spring fires of 1895 may have been the worst.)

    Really, how is it possible not to know? The online information these days practically jumps into your lap.

    170

    • #
      Dennis

      Friends from Gippsland Victoria who regularly ride Horses in the Snowy Mountains, and capture wild Brumbies, cattlemen who have grown up grazing stock in what is now National Park, have explained to me what were once grasslands up there are now tangled with Blackberry bushes, shrubs and general rubbish fuel for fires and that what used to be relatively cool fires when the areas were managed are now extremely hot wild fires that destroy everything in the path. Highly critical of city based Greens armchair experts these men are very concerned. One who battled a fire there a couple of years ago was flown in by helicopter to try and cut a firebreak but the fire reached the team faster than expected. They sheltered on a rock ledge with their protective clothing over the top of them as they lay flat. The fire passed quickly but then they had to get off the rock which was by then very hot. They were lucky.

      The Greens madness extends to state government land department officers, two women drove to a property where a couple of men were herding cattle to get them away from the fire. The stupid officers locked the gate with their own padlock which delayed the semi-trailer truck from entering the paddock to be loaded. Apparently the officers wanted to keep the cattle out of the National Park, thinking that was where the men were planning to take them.

      150

      • #
        Robert O

        Dennis, with the Aust. govt. signing-off on the Tas. “World Heritage Area” it is only a matter of time before there is a massive fire which will destroy 1000′s of hectares of it with death of much of the wildlife, simply because the “greens” do not understand the ecology of the eucalypt forest; they are good at politics but lousy at science. It happened in Tas. in 1934, and 1967 plus countless times beforehand, and in Vic. in 1939, and more recently with significant death of wildlife and people. Here you have a Paris based organisation, full of bureaucrats, directing the management of totally different heritage areas around the globe. Do they know anything much about the Barrier Reef or the Southern Forest? Cela, je m’en doute, mais c’est la politique n’est-ce pas?

        90

      • #
        TFH

        Too much myth surrounding the high country and cattle.
        The grazing will do very little to change the intensity of a fire,it has to do with trash build up on the forest floor,bark leaves branches etc(btw large areas of blackberry will slow a fire down whereas grass will increase it).

        00

  • #
    Raiderpete

    What all you are forgetting is most of those so called cyclones are in fact East Coast lows ( cold cored ) whereas a cyclone is warm cored. The Australia AOR goes out to 160E and this cyclone was named in that area and ticked all the right boxes.

    72

    • #
      Peter C

      most of those so called cyclones are in fact East Coast lows ( cold cored ) whereas a cyclone is warm cored.

      Is there a definition based on temperature?

      50

      • #
        ROM

        The following is approximate as a lot of it is taken from my memory bank which at 77 years old sometimes suffers from a hard disc failure;

        1 / Tropical / warm cored cyclones cannot form within about five degrees of the equator as they require the speed of Earth’s rotation at different latitudes to create the rotational characteristics of a warm cored cyclone/ hurricane / typhoon.

        2 / Tropical storms originating very close to the Equator will develop into cyclones as they move to higher latitudes ;ie further away in latitude north or south of the equator.

        3 / Warm cored cyclones need SST’s and water temperatures of about a minimum of 28C down to 10 metres or more to give them the immense evaporation and the source of sustained heat energy that drives the cyclones.

        4 / Warm cored cyclones do not have tails or frontal systems attached to them and are generally quite confined in size compared to cold cored cyclones.

        5 / Warm cored cyclones move from East to west driven by the westerly flowing Equatorial wind systems.

        6 / Cold cored cyclones/ intense Low pressure systems move from West to East driven by the easterly flowing weather systems of the higher latitudes

        7 / Cold cored cyclones are what is generally called “intense low pressure systems” which are found on frontal systems from very roughly around 30 degrees south in our case, all the way down to the polar regions.

        8 / Cold cored cyclones like the Warm cored cyclones also rely on the Coriolis effect to create the rotational characteristics of cyclonic activity.

        BOM; FAQ;
        6. How are tropical cyclones different to mid-latitude cyclones?

        To a first approximation a tropical cyclone is like a heat engine – it derives its energy from the heat that is released when water vapour that has been evaporated from the ocean surface (assisted by high winds and low pressure) condenses in the middle of the atmosphere.

        Mid-latitude cyclones (low pressure systems associated with fronts) primarily get their energy from horizontal gradients in temperature.

        Another important difference between the two is that tropical cyclones have their strongest winds near the surface while mid-latitude systems have their strongest winds many kilometres above the surface near the top of the atmosphere.

        100

    • #
      Aussie

      There are several levels for cyclones. In Qld we tend to see cyclones that range from Cat 2 to the highest category. Cyclone Aivu was roughly a category 4 before it hit the coastline.

      The cyclone that I experienced on the Central Coast in April was more than just a severe storm. It was a Category 2 based upon the wind speed when it crossed at Norah Head.

      As far as I am aware temperature has nothing to do with whether or not a storm event is a cyclone or not.

      As another example of wild weather I point to storms that hit Castle Hill. One street was known as Tornado Alley because the winds used to rip up trees and do damage in that street. There were several storms that caused widespread damage around Castle Hill. I am not sure if there really were tornadoes but the storms did similar damage where only the trees were ripped up!!

      01

  • #
    Robert O

    Whatever the weather is, cold or hot extremes, fires, floods or droughts, these events are going to be used for political purposes as publicity prior to the Paris meeting. Any precedent will be forgotten; that is the nature of Lysenko state driven science.

    90

  • #
    Dennis

    I was given a book to read when I was living in Queensland that described a cyclone that resulted in what is now the popular tourist destination of Noosa Heads, what back then was a small village built on the sand spit on one side of the Noosa River, being washed away by storm surge after wind damage. I thought that was late 1940s from memory.

    50

  • #
    Another Ian

    Might apply to BOM too?

    This started from a comment at

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2015/06/big-bang-theory.html#comments

    “Another Ian replied to comment from TheTooner | June 30, 2015 12:06 AM | Reply

    “NASA is the customer because NASA can’t do it anymore.”

    NASA got erectile dysfunction then?”

    And then this thought on “The Hottest Ever’s etc”

    “Same idea but with GISS maybe they’ve got the Viagra problem – can’t get it down.”

    at https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2015/05/06/tips-may-2015/#comments

    Mods – cut if beyond the pale.

    41

  • #
    Ted O'Brien.

    Most of those dates were before the Big Bang, weren’t they?

    20

  • #
    el gordo

    Good sleuthing, the MSM won’t be able to say ‘unprecedented’.

    40

  • #
    Just-A-Guy

    Jo, all,

    The BoM lists two Tropical Cyclones in July right on their website. :o

    The fist one is Tropical Cyclone Lindsay – 9 – 13 July 1996:

    Lindsay was a weak Indian Ocean system that briefly attained cyclone intensity on 11 July. It was unusual in that it formed in July, one of rare cyclones to form during the winter months.There were no reports of damage to shipping or observed gale-force winds. 0

    The second one is Unnamed Tropical Cyclone – 29 – 30 July 2007:

    An out of season tropical low briefly reached cyclone intensity near 90°E but was not named operationally. Intensification was assisted by warmer than average sea surface temperatures exceeding 28°C, favourable low level shear and strong upper level outflow associated with the approach of a mid-latitude trough to the south.

    The estimate of cyclone intensity being reached was strongly influenced by quickscat imagery rather than conventional Dvorak estimates. This was only the second tropical cyclone to be recorded in July in the Australian region since satellite records commenced.

    Just-Sayin’. ;)

    Abe

    91

  • #
  • #
    Glenn999

    “He who controls the present, controls the past. He who controls the past, controls the future.”

    50

    • #
      el gordo

      And here is the Klimatariat, along with their warmist barrackers.

      “If you want to keep a secret, you must also hide it from yourself.”

      41

  • #
    pat

    what is important is that the MSM corrects yesterday’s story.

    who would have thought Bernie Fraser would one day be synonymous with a climate “AUTHORITY”!
    ABC also gives more air-time to the climate “INSTITUTE”, Greens, Labor. where are the dissenting voices?

    2 July: ABC PM: Climate Authority calls for substantial cuts to Australia’s greenhouse emissions by 2030
    MARK COLVIN: The Independent Climate Change Authority has recommended that by 2030, Australia’s greenhouse emissions should be between 40 and 60 per cent lower than they were in 2000…
    Its chairman, Bernie Fraser, says there are major potential benefits for Australia…
    LOUISE YAXLEY: …The Environment Minister Greg Hunt says the Government will shortly announce Australia’s post-2020 targets and he says it will make a strong, clear and ambitious contribution at the United Nations talks in Paris at the end of this year…
    GREG HUNT: We’re actually in a very good position. We’re on track in terms of policy because the first of the emissions reduction fund auctions were so successful in producing 47 million tonnes of very significant real emissions reductions. That means we’ve got greater opportunity to reduce emissions.
    LOUISE YAXLEY: While he is not giving away what figure he’ll have for post-2020 cuts or how it would compare to the Climate Authority’s call for a reduction of up to 60 per cent, Mr Hunt says the Government will have a credible and significant outcome and he’s indicated it’s likely to be more than the 5 per cent target for 2020.
    ***GREG HUNT: I am confident that we can do better. Yes, absolutely we can do better and all of the support right across the different parts of the Government is for achieving a better outcome. I won’t speculate and pre-empt the Cabinet which will address this in the coming weeks but we’re in a very good position.
    LOUISE YAXLEY: The Greens leader Richard Di Natale is sceptical about the target the Government will shortly announce…
    LOUISE YAXLEY: John Connor from the environmental lobby group The Climate Institute says the reductions targets the authority has come up with today are barely strong enough…
    (Labor’s environment spokesman) Mark Butler says Mr Abbott’s emissions reductions targets will only be as ambitious as what he calls the hard-right conservatives in his party will allow him to be.
    http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2015/s4266498.htm

    11

  • #
    pat

    just in case you didn’t get the ABC message on PM, let’s go with it again on AM:

    AUDIO: 3 July: ABC AM: Climate Change Authority releases target recommendation for Paris Climate Conference
    More than half of the major emitters – including China and the US – have announced their targets.
    And now Australia’s Independent Climate Change Authority has released its target recommendations.
    It’s calling on the Federal Government to commit to a 2025 target of 30 per cent below 2000 levels…
    John Connor, CEO of The Climate Institute, joins Fran Kelly on RN Breakfast.
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/climate-change-authority-releases-target-recommendation/6591872

    11

  • #
    Shane

    Actually, the official statement from BoM was ‘First July cyclone since Satellite records began’ so your article is null and void.

    311

    • #

      Hardly. The statements the press reported, and the headlines all tell Australia that this was the first cyclone in July. Point me at the efforts the BOM have made to correct that misunderstanding… do they care if Australians are mislead on our climate?

      Point me to the part where the BOM makes sure Australian’s know that there have been plenty of cyclones in our history in July.

      If the BOM are aware that there were July cyclones in the pre-satellite era and they framed their press release to hide that, that only makes it worse.

      172

      • #

        I actually heard about this first on an ABC report interviewing the BOM where they said July cyclones occur and why and then clearly stated that the cyclone centre in QLD- with responsibility for a region outside of Australia – had never had one. The implication was just the experience of the forecasters and the centre and I shrugged and got on with my breakfast. But there are now a million mis-reports from across the news spectrum that I’d be surprised if the “first cyclone in July 2015″ doesn’t become common knowledge.

        43

        • #
          Ted O'Brien.

          On the ABC website Andree Withey reports as the words of David Grant: “We’ve never had a July tropical cyclone in the Queensland region before.” No ambiguity there.

          But its hard to say who is responsible.

          50

          • #
            Just-A-Guy

            Ted O’Brien.,

            You wrote:

            But its hard to say who is responsible.

            I agree. It is hard to find the source.

            Here’s three places to start looking, though.

            1. The ABC – For not doing their due dilligence in researching their news items. That’s what their billion dollar budget is for.

            2. The BoM – For not reporting accurate and complete information on their web-site. That’s what their multi-billion dollar budget is for.

            3. The government – For not holding the ABC and the BoM to task and for not pulling on the reins to stop these ‘uncontrolled’ beasts from running amok. That’s what they were elected to do when they were given control of the taxpayers money.

            Abe

            91

      • #
        DaveR

        Jo, you are right, this is the key point. Either the BOM put out a deliberately misleading statement, or they didnt publish the minimum context which gives the appropriate historical significance (if any).

        Either way, the BOM should be held to account.

        Every time this sort of 24-hour journalism occurs, the BOM skit away quickly. See the Ken Stewart saga with the BOM CEO.

        The BOM must be pursued on this (including FOI on BOM internal reports) until they admit their error/inadequate context/deliberate misleading of the Australian public.

        81

      • #
        Dave

        There’s this

        Historic #TCRaquel! First July TC in Qld’s area of responsibility.
        Poses no threat to #Qld.

        Here Twitter @BOM_QLD

        20

    • #
      Harry Twinotter

      Shane.

      Yes I saw that too – some of the news reports I read mentioned the satellite era.

      The point is it was a freak event.

      29

      • #
        Just-A-Guy

        Harry ‘cherry-pick’ Twinotter,

        As of Saturday 19th February 1927, The Australian region had already experienced 30 out-of-season cyclones. The records are clear and available.*

        The only reason you call it a ‘freak occurence’ is because of your devotion to the true faith of CAGW ™.

        Abe
        *But not on the BoM’s web-site. :o

        62

      • #
        James Murphy

        what is the significance of satellites in the context of cyclones? Cyclones occurred before satellites, and will continue to occur. It’s far from being the 1st cyclone ever recorded by a satellite either.

        From a scientific perspective, I see no good reason why the BOM should sensationalise this. Perhaps you can explain it to us all, with your apparently infinite wisdom?

        51

      • #
        Dave

        They didn’t say that at all

        They said:

        “Historic #TCRaquel! First July TC in Qld’s area of responsibility.
        Poses no threat to #Qld.”

        Nothing at all about satellites

        They’ll make that story up later

        51

    • #
      Just-A-Guy

      Shane,

      You wrote:

      Actually, the official statement from BoM was ‘First July cyclone since Satellite records began’ so . . . bla, bla, bluster.

      If what you say is true, then the BoM has also misled the public because there were two such cyclones prior to this one, making this one the third. Just because these prior cyclones didn’t touch land doesn’t mean they didn’t happen.

      Unnamed Tropical Cyclone

      An out of season tropical low briefly reached cyclone intensity near 90°E but was not named operationally. Intensification was assisted by warmer than average sea surface temperatures exceeding 28°C, favourable low level shear and strong upper level outflow associated with the approach of a mid-latitude trough to the south.

      The estimate of cyclone intensity being reached was strongly influenced by quickscat imagery rather than conventional Dvorak estimates. This was only the second tropical cyclone to be recorded in July in the Australian region since satellite records commenced.

      More importantly: Why do you suppose they left out the many cyclones prior to the satellite record?* Were there then no cyclones?

      The penchant of the MSM and the BoM for sensationalism is obvious and borders on contempt for the public’s right to receive accurate information. Is that what the public is paying for?

      Abe

      *Seven of them.

      61

      • #
        Just-A-Guy

        *Seven of them.

        Should read:
        *Seven of them in July.

        There were many other ‘out-of-season’ cyclones in other months.

        Abe

        50

  • #
    thingadonta

    All cyclones are equal, but some cyclones are more cyclones than others.

    80

  • #
    Ian Hill

    On my run this morning I was swooped and pecked by a piping shrike – in July? Gotta be caused by global warming.

    80

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Sorry Ian, it’s common knowledge piercing shrieks occur all year round where global warming is concerned.

      I was swooped by a Green Peckerhead the other day, luckily I was wearing a bar of soap around my neck to ward it off.

      81

      • #
        Ian Hill

        I was more surprised by what attacked me than when. They are generally friendly little critters and quite tame when they settle in the backyard and approach you fairly closely, but clearly I invaded this fellow’s space and he let me know all about it!

        The people at the adjacent railway station were no doubt startled by my choice of words beginning with the sixth letter … :)

        10

  • #
    pat

    how low can the MSM go?

    3 July 8:45AM : News Ltd: Matt Young: ‘Stop being selfish’: Seven-year-old’s message to Prime Minister Tony Abbott
    “IF YOU stop being selfish and thinking of yourself, then you might survive as well and people might stop telling you to leave Earth.”
    That’s the message to Tony Abbott from a precocious seven-year-old, who has identified himself as “Zen” in a video message posted to YouTube.
    The warning, uploaded on July 2, was posted by the seven-year-old’s mother, Hannah Powell, who described the moment her son came “bursting through the door” demanding the PM’s direct line…
    Thinking ahead, the clever seven-year-old urged the Prime Minister to “stop chopping down trees” in order for “everyone to survive” in the next thousand years.
    “If you don’t stop making stupid things now, like houses and taking over the Earth, well, we’ll survive.
    “And, if you stop, like in a thousand years, well, we won’t live and we’ll end up looking like The City of Ember”.
    The City of Ember is a post-apocalyptic science fiction novel by Jeanne DuPrau that focuses on an underground city struggling to survive more than 200 years after disaster struck the Earth…
    Will the PM respond? Time will tell.
    http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/stop-being-selfish-seven-year-olds-message-to-prime-minister-tony-abbott/story-fns0jze1-1227426222958

    from News’ profile of the writer, Matt Young: Matt is a senior journalist at news.com.au. With 10 years experience including over seven years at News Corp, Matt is the hub of our newsroom, a vibrant, energetic newshound who knows exactly what gets you talking, what makes you laugh and what makes you furious…

    comment on Bolt thread on this article:

    by Todd of Alexandria: It is worth noting, this morning at time of the articles publishing, the clip had under 100 views. Not even close to what could be considered viral. This was a pre-planned stitch up.

    already picked up by DM!

    3 July 12.42 EST: UK Daily Mail: Cindy Tran: ‘If you stop being selfish then you might survive’: Adorable 7-year-old’s strong warning to Tony Abbott about the future of planet Earth
    It is unclear where the young boy and his mother are from.
    Daily Mail Australia has contacted Hannah Powell for comment.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3148043/If-stop-selfish-survive-Adorable-7-year-old-s-strong-warning-Tony-Abbott-future-planet-Earth.html

    02

    • #
      Annie

      That seven year old doesn’t sound very ‘adorable’ (DM’s favourite adjective it seems) to me…more like a precocious little brat with an activist mother.I hope Tony Abbott completely ignores it.

      20

  • #
    pat

    another comment on the Bolt thread re 7-yr-old Zen draws attention to the promotion of WIND ENERGY at the ABC’s educational site for school-children:

    ABC Behind the News
    (TOP CATEGORY: WIND ENERGY)
    http://www.abc.net.au/btn/

    CLICK ON “WIND ENERGY” FOR ALL THE PROPAGANDA, INCLUDING IN RELATED INFORMATION, RIGHT COLUMN:
    Tony Abbott wants fewer ‘visually awful’ wind farms, wishes Howard government never implemented Renewable Energy Target: ABC News

    NOT THE PM, JUST TONY ABBOTT.

    plus main feature:
    Now to wind farms which were a hot topic of conversation last week after the Prime Minister said they “make a lot of noise” and are “visually awful”. He also suggested that he wished there were fewer of them in Australia. But how many are there and how do they actually work? Eloise visited a school that can tell us. Full transcript. 129 comments.

    Wikipedia: Behind the News
    Behind the News (more commonly known as BtN) is a long-running news program broadcast on Australia’s ABC TV made in Adelaide and aimed at school-aged children (8–13 years of age). BtN is aimed at upper primary and lower secondary students with the goal of helping them understand current issues and events in their world…
    BtN explains news items in a fun, simplistic way that is easy to understand.
    Many schools allow students watch BtN on a regular basis in the hope that it will give them an insight into politics, current affairs, sport and various other topics.

    31

    • #
      Dave

      Wind Energy Pat:

      Wind, Wind, all wind
      In the UK they have nearly 13,000 MW of wind mills installed

      Yet for the last week it’s been below 500MW consistantly
      Under 4% performance

      At the current moment 320MW

      http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

      What a waste of BILLION $ on something TOTALLY Useless

      40

  • #
    tonyM

    Jo,

    Seems to me that although your work is appreciated it is a bit like preaching to the faithful. I feel your significant efforts would be more productive if you also engaged much more in the open fora such as The Drum.

    The Drum regularly gets totally uninformed and unquestioning views from the likes of Dr Hewson who could not even put a cake together let alone understand the empirical evidence requirements of science.

    Yet he is up there pontificating; no doubt there is a commercial benefit somewhere downstream for those savvy enough like Al Gore – who neatly persuaded Clive Palmer (I imagine due to some huge CO2 trading market downstream).

    I feel now is the time to get stuck into the ABC particularly given the Q&A debacle. Don’t get me wrong, the ABC provides the best TV in Oz. But it has lost much of its impartial investigative capability in current affairs and all too frequently interviewers intrude with their own opinions when questioning.

    The game is in the selling; the Pope has engaged Naomi Klein to help sell the sizzle. Ironically, she is an atheist, I believe.

    On cyclones generally, Dowdy of BOM also says there is not much happening around Oz

    A Three-Decade History of Australian Region Tropical Cyclones
    Dowdy, A.J. 2014. Long-term changes in Australian tropical cyclone numbers. Atmospheric Science Letters 15: 292-298.

    41

    • #
      el gordo

      ‘I feel your significant efforts would be more productive if you also engaged much more in the open fora such as The Drum.’

      I disagree, better not to dissipate the energy of the blog. Within a few years the commenters at the Drum will be coming here for wit and wisdom.

      10

      • #
        tonyM

        If this was only about science then I might agree with you. But, modern climatology is not about science and never has been.

        Where does Di Caprio, Al Gore, Ban Ki-Moon et al fit science? Even Climate Change is not about the change in climate but MAN made climate change. The IPCC is only focused on this – not science. The Rio precautionary principle has little to do with rational thinking but everything to do with emotional argument.

        The Hockey Stick Mann’s version of science is that proofs are for spirits and geometry. As long as you feel the idea is right that is all that is needed. Just ask me after a few beers to check if I feel the same way. We could go on. The latest of course is Kurt-ing the data to make it comply.

        This gynormous gravy train is too big to stop simply with science. Lysenkoism is already there and we have seen it operate at individual and international sovereign state levels (even our own; don’t u think Abbott would love to give it the boot?). Have a look at the reaction of UWA to a $4 million grant simply to study optimum responses.

        This is about the pen being mightier than the sword; the vested interest groups and money, pure money and power exercised mainly through fear. Go look up Agenda 21 to see the modus operandi and the extent to which all levels of Govt and society are being infiltrated.

        How else does one get such disparate groups such as oil, gas, environmentalists, bankers, windmill makers, scientists and other carpet baggers rowing so strongly in the same direction?

        20

        • #
          el gordo

          Its all about the science, global cooling is our only hope of turning the world upside down.

          00

  • #
    pat

    Ch 7 has it now! this is ridiculous, given MSM knows nothing about this child or his parents or their politics, etc:

    3 July: Channel 7: Morning News Break: Seven-year-old tells Tony Abbott to stop being selfish
    There is no word yet on whether the Prime Minster has seen the message from this very young and very concerned citizen, but he would be thrilled if he got a response.
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/28660128/seven-year-old-tells-tony-abbott-to-stop-being-selfish/

    the original youtube, which now has 3,700+ views thanx to the MSM. click on Hannah Powell’s name for other videos & you get the Zen video, but the rest are basically promotions for Minecraft posted under different names!

    Youtube: 7 year old’s message to Tony Abbott
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGbldkFUZHQ

    12

    • #
      bobl

      Tony Abbott’s reply should go something like this

      You know 7 year old children don’t know as much as 50 odd year old Prime Ministers do. Perhaps when you’ve learned enough you might see how I’m right about this.

      This is how this scare is affecting the young and it’s a travesty (to borrow a phrase). Climate scientists should be ashamed that they have 7 year olds worried about their survival over nothing. Seven year old’s parents should be arrested for allowing this child onto You Tube.

      This child isn’t even old enough to know about the carbon cycle which used to be taught (If I recall correctly) to 8 and 9 year olds. I wonder if he would think the same if he knew that all plants and animals come out of the wonderful plant food source that is Carbon Dioxide!

      21

      • #
        James Murphy

        Strange, isn’t it, one child holds up a severed human head, and people complain about the quality of parenting, and how terrible it is that the child has been ‘brainwashed’, or similar terms.

        Yet now, this next child is ‘adorable’, and ‘precocious’ for demonstrating what could arguably be called a similar level/intensity of brainwashing, albeit not as graphic.

        No, I am not trying to equate the 2 events, or justify them either, I am just highlighting the double standards which seem to be at play. How could one reasonably argue that these cases lack any similarities?

        50

  • #

    Has someone got a link to the BOM’s media release on this?

    20

    • #
      Dave

      One is this on social media

      But has a link too

      Historic #TCRaquel! First July TC in Qld’s area of responsibility.
      Poses no threat to #Qld.

      They sent this on Twitter

      20

      • #

        it is true though. It is the first in that area’s responsibility. It is a boring administrative definition but it is not wrong.

        I mean one that said that this is the first July cyclone.

        03

        • #
          Dave

          Thanks

          Area of Responsibility is the new Eastern Region?

          This came about in 2011? I think?

          So this is the 1st July Cyclone since the new Eastern region was implemented?

          So are Cyclone now categorised as
          Before Responsibility &
          After Responsibility

          This’ll be interesting

          50

        • #
          Dave

          Gee Aye

          One more question

          Why did BOM use the term “HISTORIC”

          Like 4 years is not really Historic is it?
          Or is that another boring administrative definition!

          50

        • #
          el gordo

          ‘It is a boring administrative definition but it is not wrong.’

          Its Newspeak in a modern setting, first class propaganda.

          41

        • #
          Just-A-Guy

          Gee Aye,

          You wrote:

          It is a boring administrative definition but it is not wrong.

          You are right. Technically it may not be wrong. But factually, it’s misleading. There have been other cyclones in July. In that region. Technically they didn’t make land-fall in Qld. but factually they existed none-the-less.

          When they count the number of cyclones in-season, they include those that didn’t make land-fall in the tally, why are they to be excluded out-of-season?

          More importantly. These govt. institutions are paid by the taxpayer to provide accurate information. Not sensationalism. If the taxpayer want’s to complain about the inadequacies of the information they provide, the taxpayer is perfectly entitled to do so.

          Abe

          11

          • #
            Gee Aye

            Actually I agree with you here. That tweet was pointless. It served no purpose regarding the BOMs role

            10

          • #
            Aussie

            and the cyclone in question did not hit Australia either. It simply ran out of steam somewhere in the ocean.

            00

    • #
      Harry Twinotter

      Gee Aye.

      There is this BOM release dated the 30th June.

      “In combination with other tropical waves, the MJO has generated areas of significant weather over the western Pacific region—both north and south of the equator—which have the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone in the coming days. Tropical cyclone formation in the southern hemisphere in this region is rare in June and unprecedented in July (since reliable satellite records became available).”

      http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml

      16

      • #
        el gordo

        Unprecedented seems a little harsh, perhaps unusual would have been a better choice.

        41

        • #
          Harry Twinotter

          el gordo.

          Arguing over words, like you mentioned in a comment on another article.

          I try and check the media reporting on weather stuff, I have been burnt too many times before. People make off the cuff remarks and get the details wrong, sometimes people are misquoted. Headline editors get it wrong or are only interested in click-bait.

          I find cross-checking is a good way to learn new things.

          16

          • #
            el gordo

            Yeah, the thing is they used ‘unprecedented’ for Yassi, also those two cyclones in February and Pam got mentioned, its becoming tedious.

            None of it is unprecedented, because CO2 doesn’t cause global warming, so everything we are experiencing now is perfectly natural and has happened many times before.

            42

            • #
              Aussie

              One of those other cyclones was called Nathan… it kept on hitting the coast, leaving then coming back to hit again…..

              ….. a lot like my grandson, Nathan. It has given us a bit of an in joke over the name of the cyclone.

              I agree, that none of the cyclones, including Yassi have been unprecedented.

              You only have to ask the people who have lived through these weather events to gather that there has been worse in the past.

              This was certainly the case when I went to live in Townsville for a year. It was the end of 1988 and the local people were expecting another cyclone to hit in that region. I heard them talking about another cyclone and how they were due to be hit again… then in April 1989 we had Cyclone Aivu.

              I should point out that I noticed the same thing when living in the USA. The local people were concerned because they expected or rather, feared that another tornado might hit the region. The previous time, it hit Xenia really hard. I point this out because of the fear that was in the voices of the locals and how such fear was similar to that in Townsville.

              The BOM adds nothing to the debate because it is the locals who have a better idea on those weather events. Yes, they are events, but they are not unprecedented as we are being led to believe.

              01

          • #
            Just-A-Guy

            Harry ‘cherry-pick’ Twinotter,

            You wrote:

            el gordo.

            Arguing over words, like you mentioned . . . bla bi-ddee, bla, bla

            I don’t believe el gordo actually said that. Can you provide a link? Unless you can provide a source there’s no reason to accept what you say. You’re the one making this statement, why don’t you provide support for your statement?

            /parody of the Twin…otter off.

            Unprecedented means never happened. But it did. As the BoM clearly stated on their web-site. Not only once, but twice.

            Abe

            PS – Keep up with the other comments on the thread before you post.

            22

          • #
            James Murphy

            So, Harry, as I asked before (see # 31.2.2), what’s the significance of satellite monitoring vs no satellite monitoring when it comes to cyclones? Extra data is always good to have, and no doubt it has helped us understand more about them, but it doesn’t change anything about how cyclones form, or behave, does it? It doesn’t change the frequency with which they occur either – does it?

            Unless you can tell me otherwise, it does look rather like a gratuitous and sensational press release, perhaps in order to meet a press release quota so someone at the BOM can use the number of press releases as evidence of hard work in their next performance review… it wouldn’t surprise me.

            Perhaps you missed my question, or perhaps you don’t have a reasonable answer?

            11

            • #
              Just-A-Guy

              James Murphy,

              He missed the question (intentionally?) and he doesn’t have a reasonable answer (but that won’t stop him from making one up when he so desires).

              Abe

              11

            • #
              Harry Twinotter

              James Murphy.

              Why don’t you ask the BOM instead of speculating. I can’t speak for the BOM.

              13

          • #
            Winston

            Harry,

            You are assuming the BOM don’t wish to be misquoted, and that they don’t frame their comments precisely to perpetuate misunderstandings just such as these.

            It doesn’t really matter whether they said it more fully or not in some other medium. In my opinion, they deliberately framed their comment to be short handed by others in an alarming fashion, to give the false impression that cyclones have NEVER, since the dawn of time, occurred in this region in July.

            They give themselves a convenient out by adding vague qualifiers at the end (where the Chinese whispers rarely extend), but knowingly deceptive and manipulative in allowing their prognostications to be entwined in a false narrative for the express purpose of swaying public opinion with a falsehood.

            Are you happy to associate yourself with such an immoral misuse of such propaganda techniques, or does the nobility of your cause justify any dishonesty or deception?

            32

            • #
              Harry Twinotter

              Winston.

              “You are assuming the BOM don’t wish to be misquoted, and that they don’t frame their comments precisely to perpetuate misunderstandings just such as these.”

              I am not assuming anything, I have no idea where you got that from.

              The rest of what you write is gibberish.

              14

              • #
                Just-A-Guy

                Harry,

                Stop cherry-picking and answer the question.

                “Are you happy to associate yourself with such an immoral misuse of such propaganda techniques, or does the nobility of your cause justify any dishonesty or deception?”

                Abe

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    pat

    Fairfax rewrites reality:

    3 July: Australian Financial Review: Tony Walker: Australia a ‘black sheep’ over climate
    (Tony Walker is the AFR’s International editor. He visited France and Germany as a guest of the French and German governments)
    AFR Weekend understands a “whole-of-government review” of options has worked its way through the system and the cabinet will sign off on a final position by around the middle of this month.
    A well-placed source told the AFR, Canberra was “edging towards” a similar position to that of the United States and Canada, under which Australia would declare a “relatively ambitious” target…
    Such an outcome would enable Abbott respectably to show his face in Paris along with other global leaders, including Obama and China’s President Xi Jinping…
    Progressive ministers in the Abbott cabinet, including Foreign Minister Julie Bishop and Environment Minister Greg Hunt, are said to be arguing the case that Australia should bring itself into line with a strengthening international consensus on climate.
    Abbott is leaning reluctantly towards their point of view, but has needed to be convinced. Sceptics in the cabinet include National Party ministers close to the resources sector…
    French pride is involved…
    ***French and German officials spared little in their criticism of what they perceived to be the Abbott government’s miserly approach towards preparations for the Paris conference.
    They contrasted this stance with that of the previous Australian government, which demonstrated greater engagement on climate…
    http://www.afr.com/news/policy/climate/australia-a-black-sheep-over-climate-20150703-gi3wpq

    Tony Walker/AFR…report the facts:

    2 July: CarbonBrief: Simon Evans: German coal compromise leaves doubts over climate goal
    After late night coalition talks, Angela Merkel’s German government has abandoned a planned levy on the oldest and dirtiest coal plants. Instead, it will adopt an industry-backed proposal to pay a small number of lignite power stations to retire…
    The coal compromise has been welcomed by mining unions. Shares in coal-heavy German utility RWE were up 5% today, as the news emerged…
    Germany sources a quarter of all its energy needs from coal, making it more coal-reliant than almost all other EU nations. Coal is responsible for around 40% of German emissions (brown and black segments, below). This is the largest share in the G7…
    Power output from coal, and particularly lignite, the dirtiest form of coal, has barely changed in the past quarter-century (brown and black bars, below)…
    There is also some doubt as to whether the plants need to be paid to close. Some lignite plants are already 50 years old and facing financial difficulties. Now, instead of facing a coal levy, they will be paid to go into the stand-by reserve.
    UK NGO Sandbag says several elderly lignite plants were likely to have retired anyway, and could now be paid €500m to do what they would have done of their own accord…
    Thinktank E3G saysthe decision is a “black day for German climate targets, consumers and taxpayers”. It says compromise decision will cost more and deliver less.
    WWF Germany says the “bizarre” decision means the original goal of climate protection has been “almost lost”…
    More than anything else, last night’s messy compromise illustrates how hard it will be to move away from coal — even for some of the world’s richest nations.
    http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/07/german-coal-compromise-leaves-doubts-over-climate-goal/

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      Just-A-Guy

      pat,

      You keep getting ‘red thumbs’. The ‘phantom’ must really hate the MSM for reporting all that propaganda/drivel that you quote for us. ;)

      Abe

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      Just-A-Guy

      pat,

      You wrote:

      Fairfax rewrites reality:

      Post-modern philosophy assumes that there is no ‘reality’. Reality is subjective and means what you say it means. c.f. Feyerabend.

      Abe

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    pat

    as for Tony Walker/AFR’s French “pride” –
    the reality, including a promise to one day do something by Total:

    2 July: Bloomberg: Tara Patel: Coal Trading an Awkward Contradiction for Climate-Talks Sponsor
    The sparkling blue waters of an Alpine hydroelectric dam dominate Electricite de France SA’s latest advertisement plugging its sponsorship of climate-change talks in Paris at the end of the year.
    While renewable-energy plants and the world’s largest fleet of nuclear reactors allow the state-controlled utility to boast of low-carbon emissions, they are linked to an inconvenient truth: EDF is one of the world’s biggest coal traders and a major importer of the fuel into Europe…
    A spokesman for EDF, which shipped 94 million metric tons of coal last year, declined to comment. Coal-fired generation accounts for about 6 percent of the company’s power production…
    The government owns 84.5 percent of EDF and 33.3 percent of Engie, the utility formerly known as GDF Suez SA…
    Last month, Engie CEO Gerard Mestrallet announced his company won’t be involved in a new coal plant in South Africa. That apparent shift in policy comes after he defended the use of coal by countries like South Africa at a shareholders’ meeting in May…
    It (Engie) generates about a fifth of its electricity from coal plants and doubled its usage of the fuel between 2008 and 2014, company figures show…
    Fellow French energy giant Total SA plans to pull out of the coal business, CEO Patrick Pouyanne announced in June…
    “I still have a coal business and I have to get out of it,” he said. “I can’t say that coal is the enemy of gas and then continue to produce coal like some of my colleagues. I will get out of coal.”…
    Taking into account countries’ pledges toward a climate agreement, by 2030 coal’s share of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will fall by just 3 percentage points to 41 percent, according to a study published last month by the Paris-based International Energy Agency…
    While global coal demand is expected to grow over the next five years, led by China, demand in the U.S. is forecast to fall amid increasing shale gas production, according to the IEA…
    “Globally we do not expect the end of coal because countries looking at how to get power cheaply will still consider coal plants,” said Josef Pospisil, a utilities analyst at Fitch Ratings Ltd.
    ***Still, coal is getting bad press…
    Friends of the Earth’s Malika Peyraut: “We want EDF and Engie to vow not to invest in any more coal plants otherwise their sponsorship of the Paris talks is hypocritical,” she said. “They have to bite the bullet even if it means giving up juicy contracts.”
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/coal-trading-an-awkward-contradiction-for-climate-talks-sponsor

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    ImranCan

    It is amazing. People in position of authority basically just make stuff up , get it published by a compliant media and then it becomes the truth. What can we do to prvent the further spread of what is basically one big lie.

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      el gordo

      ‘…in the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods. It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously.’

      Adolf Hitler

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    pat

    just switched on BBC World TV to find news ticker repeatedly running across the screen, saying: “CO2 emissions threaten ocean crisis”. it never stops:

    3 July: BBC: Roger Harrabin: CO2 emissions threaten ocean crisis
    Writing in Science, experts say the oceans are heating, losing oxygen and becoming more acidic because of CO2…
    Twenty-two world-leading marine scientists have collaborated in the synthesis report in a special section of Science journal…
    Jean-Pierre Gattuso, lead author of the study, said: “The ocean has been minimally considered at previous climate negotiations. Our study provides compelling arguments for a radical change at the UN conference (in Paris) on climate change”…
    They warn that the carbon we emit today may change the earth system irreversibly for many generations to come.
    Carol Turley, of Plymouth Marine Laboratory, a co-author, said: “The ocean is at the frontline of climate change with its physics and chemistry being altered at an unprecedented rate so much so that ecosystems and organisms are already changing and will continue to do so as we emit more CO2…
    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33369024

    THE VIDEO VERSION:
    ‘Irreversible change’ to sea life from CO2 – Roger Harrabin
    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33370591

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    pat

    for those who have access:

    Q&A has become sensationalist, says ex-ABC boss Jonathan Shier
    The Australian-2 hours ago
    Former ABC managing director Jonathan Shier says Q&A has become … Like other programs on the ABC, Q&A has been criticised for focusing on left-wing agendas, including climate change…

    here they go again.
    ***the arrogance of telling our farmers this rubbish!

    3 July: ABC: Jodie Gunders: Could big data help farmers adapt to a changing climate?
    The future prosperity of the family farm may depend on farmers’ willingness to take up new technologies, according to American scientist Dr John Corbett.
    Dr Corbett has been in Australia to address growers at the 2015 National Horticulture Convention about the benefits of using geo-analytics and big data to access better and more agronomic weather information…
    ***”All too often growers are facing situations of higher temperatures, humidity, rainfall, maybe diseases and things they haven’t seen before at that intensity perhaps and this information helps guide their next steps. So it’s not so much forecasting as it is a way of managing the uncertainty that’s happening today with the weather variability,” he said…
    Dr Corbett said the whole agricultural chain, including seed companies and herbicide manufacturers, would need to adapt to weather variability…
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-03/farming-with-big-data/6591058

    links to 4min audio: Dr John Corbett spoke about big data at the 2015 National Horticulture Conference
    Dr John Corbett uses geo-analytics and big data to help growers deal with increased weather variability.

    Corbett is the CEO & President of aWhere, and was formerly with Syngenta (from LinkedIn).

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    pat

    check the photo illustration:

    2 July: Bloomberg: Germany Gives Dirtiest Coal Plants Six Years for Phase Out
    by Stefan Nicola & Tino Andresen
    The decision, which must be ratified by Chancellor Angela Merkel’s cabinet this year, boosted the shares of utilities including RWE AG and EON SE…
    “We consider this a great relief for RWE as the climate-change fee could have proved far more harmful to the company’s brown coal-exposed power generation portfolio,” Tanja Markloff, an analyst at Commerzbank AG who upgraded RWE to buy Thursday, said in an e-mailed note.
    RWE surged as much as 6.4 percent, the most since January, and EON by 3.7 percent, making them among the biggest gainers on Germany’s benchmark DAX index…
    Merkel’s ambition is to stimulate renewable forms of energy, especially solar farms and offshore wind plants in the North Sea, as a replacement.
    ***That program has started to draw criticism. Businesses are concerned that power bills will rise, and residents are upset about the blight on landscapes caused by high-voltage power lines needed to link wind farms to industrial regions.
    As part of Thursday’s deal, the government agreed with state leaders including Bavaria’s Horst Seehofer to prioritize underground cables when adding new power lines instead of opting for massive new pylons.
    Environmental groups including Greenpeace said Merkel failed to honor a pledge to protect the climate made at a Group of Seven nations meeting in Bavaria in June.
    “Instead of starting the phase-out of coal as promised, the chancellor realizes all the dreams of power plant operators,” Tobias Muenchmeyer, a Greenpeace activist, said in an e-mailed statement. “They have to cut less CO2 and are even given billions for it.”
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-02/germany-to-close-coal-plants-in-effort-to-curb-pollution

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    sophocles

    Jo said above:

    A weak tropical cyclone has formed off the Solomon Islands, and the BOM is reporting that there has never before been a July cyclone in the Queensland region.

    (my emphasis)

    I’m not an Australian nor am I resident in Australia, so I neither see nor hear much from the BOM other than its website, which is very useful for me and my interest in weather (<-feeble pun) or not there is going to be any weather and if so, where is it coming from and how good/bad is it going to be. However, I do think the BOM stands, perhaps, unfairly accused in this instance.

    The BOM was quoted in rhis article as saying (my emphasis)

    “Certainly it’s a unique scenario,” Jess Carey, a spokesman from the bureau’s Queensland office, said. “Since we’ve been tracking cyclones with satellite-based technology, we haven’t seen one in July.”

    I have no idea when they started using satellite technology to track cyclones, so I can’t argue either way. It’s my understanding the weather satellites didn’t really begin going into space until the late 1960s and early 1970s with geosynchronous ones towards the middle 1970s onwards. If the full global coverage was not reached until about 1979 and the output made available to all shortly thereafter.

    On the face of it, the BOM’s statement, therefore, seems fair and reasonable to me.

    On a different note, I found the solar weather over the days of 21st June to 27th June interesting. An active sunspot group AR2371 was directly facing Earth and taking pot shots at us with four CMEs in twenty four hours. On the 25th of June, an M7.9 flare sent a lopsided CME straight for us. It was due to hit about the 27th of June but nothing much happened. From the 28th on, the sun went quiet with the hissy sun-spot group rotating away. Coincidence or Enemy Action?

    TC Raquel apparently formed in the early hours of the 1st of July. The preceding space weather may or may not have had influence on it. My last check on it showed it to be weakening. A quiet sun and lack of warm water/air to keep it fed.

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      Just-A-Guy

      sophocles,

      You wrote:

      Coincidence or Enemy Action?

      The skeptics did it to confound the warmists. ;)

      Then again, this is unprecedented for the last 4 days, ever since we started observing this phenomenon with our new and improved ‘skeptic powered satellites’.

      Abe

      Abe

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      Rereke Whakaaro

      Whether the weather is cold, or whether the weather is hot,
      Wethers, weather the weather, whatever the weather, whether they like it or not.

      I feel a little sheepish, posting that here …

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    Hey wait up!
    There was not a cyclone in July 1954!! There were at least three…and a tornado all in 72 hours according to the “weather bureau.”
    http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/134754291

    One of them ripped through Nambour with 75MPH winds (120KPH). 200 miles of
    destruction and 200 homeless.
    http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/118249399

    Lance

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      One of them, “The cyclone reported on Sunday which turned into an intense rain depression to-day moved onshore at Gladstone. near Monto, 321 miles north west of Brisbane late to-night. By 9 o’clock to-night the cyclone operating off Bundaberg, was still maintaining little movement, according to the Weather Bureau.”
      http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/150533012

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      Michael

      These were east coast lows (ECL)
      Learn the difference between ECLs and TCs.

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        Rereke Whakaaro

        Could you please explain the difference, for those of us who are not specialists in meteorology?

        01

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    el gordo

    ‘Recent extreme-weather events cannot be blamed on global warming, because there has not been any global warming to speak of. It is as simple as that.’

    Christopher Monckton

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    Unmentionable

    Thanks Jo, I knew you’d post the actual facts on this topic, well done guys.

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    If they print a retraction, will you post it? (I doubt if they will) Good job Jo…

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    Michael

    Wow the ignorance is a plenty!

    Not all cyclones are ‘tropical cyclones’. In fact, cyclones can occur anywhere in the world including the poles.
    ‘Polar lows’ HELLO!!
    “Lows’ and ‘Cyclones’ are synonymous. They are different definitions for exactly the same thing.
    That is why it is called a ‘TROPICAL’ cyclone. It forms under different environment than other types of cyclones.

    Just because something was a ‘cyclone’ in the past does not automatically make it a ‘tropical cyclone’.
    It much, much, much more likely any cyclone that hit central or southern Queensland during July was an ‘east coast low’

    If you don’t know the difference, maybe you should stop flouting your opinion because you are looking like fools. Ignorant fools are that!
    If you think there is no difference than you are compounding your ignorance.
    If you don’t understand why it would be extraordinary hard to get a ‘tropical cyclone’ to hit southern or central Queensland in July than just maybe you lack fundamental simple understanding of meteorology.

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    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      Michael,

      I hit this thread late, so I did not have the change to question further.

      Can you please explain the differences between a cyclone (“low”) and a tropical cyclone?

      Many people who have no formal grounding in meteorology, would probably assume that a tropical cyclone was a regular cyclone that formed in the tropics. I did! But I would be happy to be instructed differently.

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    Michael

    Another thing all these cyclones that hit Queensland during July were East Coast Lows … just like the one that hit SE Queensland on 1st May. Were any of you suggesting that was a tropical cyclone?
    In the past media reported ECLs as cyclones, that is because east coast lows are in fact cyclones.
    They knew the difference.

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      Unmentionable

      You are undoubtedly correct RE ECLs, and that’s in fact the first thing that I thought of when reading some of the above comments. And I’m sure most readers did the same.

      However, let us know when the ABC and BOM make these things 100% crystal clear to the general public, and then maybe be can take their comments seriously, and will feel no need to be scathing of their incessant immature climate melodramas and hype when discussing weather events and their development.

      But what occurred instead is the ABC almost immediately started talking about global warming, in relation to this tropical cyclone, and asked again, and again, if global warming had produced it. And they talked about it many times, as though it almost surely was.

      However, to be fair to the BOM spokesperson, who I saw on ABC when it first formed, or was projected to form soon (I can’t remember his name), he did make it very clear to the ABC presenter, and thus to viewers then watching that live, that he did not think it had anything to do with global warming at all, but instead correctly pointed out the established atmospheric pattern was inducing sustained favourable vorticity with low shear over sufficiently warm equatorial waters. And let’s face it, those waters never cool much in ‘winter’. The main reason why tropical storms snuff in winter is because the necessary humidity levels are normally being dissipated by southerly cool dry air inflows with each new continent crossing high.

      It was the ABC which did its best to generate and sustain the on-going impression that this rare and nearly equatorial convergence-zone tropical cyclone was due to human-induced global warming. The ABC repeatedly couched it in global warming terms and questions, or made their comments and reports as suggestive of it.

      So if you want to rouse about astonishing ignorance levels, please lob over to the relevant ABC comment section, and point out the same truths to them. I got the distinct impression from their reports and commentary that the facts of the matter are not at all what they’re interested in conveying to the Australian public.

      And please point out to them the difference between weather forecasting and climate fear-mongering, and cynical knee-jerk commentary to mislead the public, and apparently be seen to be playing cynical politics with weather reports, at every opportunity

      [ ... good grief ... is nothing sacred anymore! :D ]

      So thank goodness Jo Nova and colleagues put the basic facts on the record for our collective edification and later clearly much needed reference.

      Plus your points are also recorded with them, for further clarification, Michael. ;)
      ___

      Which all seems to contribute to making it a rather worthwhile sort of blog post.

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    Michael

    1954 event was an ECL.
    Jeff Callaghan verifies this.

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    David Stevens

    It is not only the ABC that promotes these fairy tales. Channel 7 Mackay (QLD) also pushed a never-before cyclone in July. As a result I emailed the main article above to Channel 7 in Brisbane where they claim to have a ‘real meteorologist’. The following evening’s weather presentation from Channel 7 Mackay contained a reprimand to ‘those viewers’ who had challenged their increasingly BOM fairy tale presentations! So glad to have ‘insightful’ comments on our commercial media as well.

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    Hanging in the balance

    Jo Nova your blog might well open up the absurdity of life as WE know it! Thanks for opening me up a tad. How can we learn to accept change as it is and educate/ soothe the mass hysteria? Im turning in on myself and have almost given up trying to express any opinion! I want to wrap all the bullshitters up in there own red tape and stuff there newspapers down ther throat. Clearly I have a long way to go in my development given such venom! What’s the cure?

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    • #

      We have to laugh. If we take them seriously it gets too depressing. Be grateful you can see through the fog. It’s a gift but also a burden.

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    Anthony

    It’s really sad that there are only one or two posters here with the intelligence to point out that the BoM have said nothing sensationalist, dishonest or wrong when they made the claim it was the first ever July TROPICAL cyclone recorded by satellite in Queensland’s area of responsibility. It’s also sad that people think the BoM were deliberately trying to confuse the issue, when in fact they posted a tweet explaining the difference between an East Coast Low (the “cyclones” that affected southern parts of Queensland during winter in years past) and tropical cyclones. I used to read this website regularly, now I think I’ll be reading it much less, as the audience has demonstrated that THEY are the ones who are sensationalist. You are all doing your cause no favours whatsoever when you are quite clearly meteorologically illiterate. ECL =/= tropical cyclone! Learn the difference. If you think those cyclones (not tropical ones) that affected southern waters of Queensland were anything like tropical cyclones, then you clearly have no idea of the conditions that required to sustain them.

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      Rereke Whakaaro

      … people think the BoM were deliberately trying to confuse the issue, when in fact they posted a tweet explaining the difference …

      Was the original BOM news release issued via Twitter?

      I have no idea how many people follow the BOM on Twitter, but I would bet it is considerably less than the number of people who originally saw the published press release.

      My field is the study of geopolitics, and I am well aware that issuing a statement via one medium, and then retracting it via another, is an old and well established propaganda technique. The fact that it appears to have occured, as you claim, does nothing to increase my level of confidence in the BOM.

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    Brunswick_G

    None of those were tropical cyclones (TCs). They are all what are termed East Coast Lows (ECLs), which are quite different dynamically from TCs. TC’s are “warm-core” cyclones, while ECL’s are “cold-core” cyclones. Their formation mechanisms are quite distinct as are their maintenance mechanisms. They both move cyclonically.

    I suppose none of that matters for you though. Why let facts get in the way of a good conspiracy theory?

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      Rereke Whakaaro

      Two questions:

      1. Is the kinetic energy of East Coast Lows the same as that of Tropical Cyclones? That is, do they have the potential to do similar damage if they come ashore?

      2. How are the formation mechanisms (apart from core temperature) different?

      The media (and hence the public) just refer to “cyclones”, as a generic term, so I guess it is not unreasonable that people do not distinguish between the two. And I would bet that less than one person in one thousand would know how either are formed.

      From my experience, Jo tends not to lecture, but leaves it to commentators with more experience in the field, to answer on her behalf.

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        Aussie

        see my comments about what the media are calling a severe storm when in fact it was a cyclone that hit the Central Coast in April.

        The damage was the same as for a cyclone. Many streets with uprooted trees, and trees falling on houses and cars, as well as the rain… all of these factors point to a cyclone in action. However the reason that it was more than a severe storm is that wind speeds were that of a cat 2 cyclone when it hit Norah Head.

        We are being played for fools by the media and the BOM in particular. They do not want to acknowledge that it was a cyclone because that hurts their meme.

        01