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New telescopes see magnetic flux ropes on Sun (which can’t possibly affect Earths climate).

A new telescope has peered into the Sun to see solar magnetic flux ropes for the first time. Severe flux rope twists have been described as being like “earthquakes” on the sun, and are linked to eruptions of large solar flares that change magnetic fields, and cause radiation and energetic particles to rain on Earth.

We don’t know much about solar magnetic flux ropes. We know they affect space weather, but thanks to climate experts we already “know” they can’t possibly, ever in a million years, affect Earth’s weather. Even though we’ve only just been able to see them and have no long term data on them, we have Global Circulation Climate models (which don’t include these solar factors), so we have 95% certainty that none of the particles, fields or radiation changes have much impact on Earth. They might fritz satellites, electronics and communications, but Earth’s atmosphere has no electrical component (wink), and the models “work” (kinda, sorta, apart from “the pause”, the arctic, the ocean, the antarctic, and the holocene) without any of this fuzzy solar stuff. Got that? Repeat after me. The Sun does not affect Earth’s climate. (Good boys and girls. You are fit for a government grant.)

Fine details of a magnetic flux rope captured by the New Solar Telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory for Solar Active Region 11817 on 2013 August 11. The structure is further demonstrated by the 3-D magnetic modeling based the observations of Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board Solar Dynamic Observatory. The image was created by Chang Liu, one of the co-authors of the paper.Credit: Chang Liu

 

Science Daily: Scientists at NJIT’s Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) have captured the first high-resolution images of the flaring magnetic structures known as solar flux ropes at their point of origin in the Sun’s chromosphere.

Flux ropes are bundles of magnetic fields that together rotate and twist around a common axis, driven by motions in the photosphere, a high-density layer of the Sun’s atmosphere below the solar corona and chromosphere.

 David’s solar notch delay theory, which predicts cooling, by the way, is doing very well. We’ll be discussing an update and more news on his theory that TSI is a leading indicator (but not a direct cause) of temperature changes on Earth in up and coming posts. Energetic particles, solar winds, changes in radiation and magnetic fields, are all candidates for the force (or forces) that influence Earth’s climate, but are delayed by half a full solar cycle (of ~22 years) from changes in the TSI. Previous problems with Fourier transform approximations have been fixed, and a delay is indeed implied by the notch. Sorry about the big gap in publications on it, there is something scientifically big going on (separate from the ND solar theory) behind the scenes and he prefers to work with a low profile rather than in the “blood sport” distraction that publicity brings. Thanks to all the people who support our ground breaking research. Donations to this blog keep us both going. To the team who make independent science and independent science commentary possible — We’re very grateful, we can’t do this without you.

We will be entering the fray again soon. I have a series of posts lined up. Thanks for your patience.

The Press release: New solar telescope peers deep into the sun to track the origins of space weather

Scientists at NJIT’s Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) have captured the first high-resolution images of the flaring magnetic structures known as solar flux ropes at their point of origin in the Sun’s chromosphere. Their research, published today in Nature Communications, provides new insights into the massive eruptions on the Sun’s surface responsible for space weather.

Flux ropes are bundles of magnetic fields that together rotate and twist around a common axis, driven by motions in the photosphere, a high-density layer of the Sun’s atmosphere below the solar corona and chromosphere. The NJIT images were taken from observations of the newly commissioned 1.6m New Solar Telescope (NST) at BBSO.

“These twisting magnetic loops have been much studied in the Sun’s corona, or outer layer, but these are the first high-resolution images of their origination in the chromosphere below it. For the first time, we can see their twisting motion in great detail and watch how it evolves,” said Haimin Wang, distinguished professor of physics at NJIT and the study’s lead author.

Wang and his co-authors strung together a series of images which trace the formation of an S-shaped bundle of magnetic fields from which a set of loops peel off and grow upward into a multi-strand flux rope within a few minutes. Two flare ribbons appear at the two sides of the rising flux rope.

“We have been looking for erupting twisted solar flux ropes in the chromosphere, but observations of these eruptions under excellent conditions are very rare,” Wang said, adding that the NST images they captured provide unprecedented detail, as well as powerful new clues about their initiation and their relationship to solar eruptions and coronal mass ejections.

Energy releases in solar flares and associated forms of eruptions occur when magnetic field lines, with their powerful underlying electric currents, are twisted beyond a critical point that can be measured by the number of turns in the twist. The largest of these eruptions cause what is known as space weather — the radiation, energetic particles and magnetic field releases from the Sun powerful enough to cause severe effects in Earth’s near environment, such as the disruption of communications, power lines and navigations systems.

“One of the exciting things about these new images is that we can now distinguish between mild twists and those severe enough to cause space weather,” said Wang, who likened the eruptions to earthquakes, which are energy releases following the build-up of tension as tectonic plates rub against each other along fault lines. The team is developing tools to predict space weather from solar observations and modeling.

REFERENCE

Haimin Wang, Wenda Cao, Chang Liu, Yan Xu, Rui Liu, Zhicheng Zeng, Jongchul Chae, Haisheng Ji. Witnessing magnetic twist with high-resolution observation from the 1.6-m New Solar Telescope. Nature Communications, 2015; 6: 7008 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms8008

Cue sneering trolls, in 1, 2, 3…

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94 comments to New telescopes see magnetic flux ropes on Sun (which can’t possibly affect Earths climate).

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    Annie

    Looking forward to reading this later. You keep us busy Jo!

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    TdeF

    It is like the idea that sudden changes in CO2 have never happened before, because they are not evident in the ice cores. You would think Ice cores might have lousy time resolution, averaging CO2 levels because of leaching and the switching between gaseous and solid forms at about the storage temperature allowing for migration.

    Another hardly mentioned worry one is the cross over in the 1980′s and 90s from thermometers with a resolution of 0.5C to thermistors and electronics with a resolution and better calibration to 0.01C. Surely this would give rise to a possible shift of 0.5C? After all, if one reads 20.5C and the other reads 20.99C, which is right? In principle they are in agreement and both right but it would show the world just warmed 0.5C when nothing happened. That is an artifact of changing instruments.

    So it is possible CO2 changes many times associated with ocean surface warming and solar activity and cloudless times and also that in the late 20th century, more than half of the observed change was instrumental. The last 0.3C of Global Warming might vanish in Australia if the Federation drought was included. As Australia contributes 25% to the land calculations of Global Warming, maybe it is a complete fabrication, partly data selection and partly instrumental. Still, it is safer to build 220,000 windmills
    on the precautionary principle? Carbon indulgences sound like a great idea. Especially to a merchant bank or the UN.

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    • #

      You would think Ice cores might have lousy time resolution, averaging CO2 levels because of leaching and the switching between gaseous and solid forms at about the storage temperature allowing for migration.

      sorry nothing to do with the sun…

      TdeF. Thermal diffusion and gravitational settling are well understood, well studied and are measured and accounted for. They introduce errors and do indeed fuzzy up strata.

      Now everyone back to the sun. I have a question. These ropes are unknown but is their influence on Earth climate unmeasured? It is true we don’t fully understand how the sun works but does this mean we have miss-measured solar output?

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        TdeF

        You miss my point. It is all about man made Global Warming. Lord Monckton’s theory was a statistical absence of clouds over oceans during the warming period. Ropes are about understanding changes in solar activity and then the radiation spectrum. All are about sources of global warming and cooling connected to solar activity but the whole thing is simply science best left to specialist scientists if there is no actual global warming.

        This is one of the problems where discussing the endless inputs to the debate becomes more important and perhaps interesting than whether there is actually any evidence of a problem, which is my point. That allows the IPCC to get away with it.

        There has been no warming for nearly 20 years. Possibly none in the 1980′s/90s after all and none in the 20 years before that. In fact there may not have been any warming in the 20th century! There is almost no man made CO2 in the air. Galileo was locked up because of his observation and plotting of sunspots and solar rotation. Still the fundamental concern driving these discussions is man made Global Warming, not sunspots.

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        • #
          RB

          You might want to look up other versions of the story of Galileo. He was under house arrest in his cell(with his valet) for insisting that the Copernicus model was the truth rather than just an hypothesis. Right from Copernicus’s time it needed to be stated that the Earth revolving around the Sun was just a choice for mathematical reasons and not that the maths proved it. More importantly, the Copernicus and Ptolomaic models were equally poor when it came to describing quantitatively the movement of planets. Galileo dismissed Kepler’s work, which was much better, but the Jesuits (Catholic priests) did not.

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      • #
        Peter C

        Contribution from Gee Aye, in relation to accuracy of CO2 levels in Ice Cores.

        Thermal diffusion and gravitational settling are well understood, well studied and are measured and accounted for.

        Whaaat?

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        • #

          in ice cores… look it up

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          • #

            Ice cores may be OT for this post but the general tactic of “we’ve looked into that” is central to the obfuscation of science by climate alarmists – particularly those that know no science but like to throw in a few sciency words.

            Diffusion loses information – gone, lost forever, off its perch, gone to meet its maker.

            Try looking up ‘entropy’.

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            • #

              well yes… thanks for restating what was just written as though it was overlooked. “we’ve looked into that” is not what was implied though – “accounted for in calculations” is what I meant and it means the effect is noted and included in errors of estimates. It can also be algorithmically “undiffused” using independent estimates of the diffusion which reduces the error, but the uncertainty will always be larger than if nothing ever diffused.

              I know you understand this, so why even respond?

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              • #

                Diffusion doesn’t just ‘fuzz up the data’ it reduces high frequency information – ie short term spikes. The information is LOST and can’t be regained by any method.

                You say that it’s just an error term but it is a fatal one that destroys the use of the data for short periods. Nothing can change that. The ice core data is useless for short term analysis – ie the short term peaks that other techniques show.

                You are still obfuscating. Your phrase ‘accounted for in calculations’ implies that it can be corrected for. It can’t.

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              • #

                oh OK Dai. You have your words to define the same thing. To settle this, perhaps you have a publication or two that quantifies what you mean?

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              • #

                We definitely are not saying the same thing.

                A first year thermodynamics text will do for reference.

                I feel I’ve pushed Jo’s tolerance on this OT discussion far enough.

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      • #
        Louis Hissink

        THink of TSI as the speedo on your car, and the electric plasma circuit that the earth is part of, as the energy conduit into the earth, and hence the engine of the car that the speedo is showing the speed of.

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      TdeF:

      Hager compared the two different measurement systems side by side at the GeiInfoAdvisory Office of Fliegerhorst Lechfeld from January 1, 1999 to Jul 31, 2007.
      - See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2015/01/13/weather-instrumentation-debacle-analysis-shows-0-9c-of-germanys-warming-may-be-due-to-transition-to-electronic-measurement/#sthash.iuhicrpE.dpuf

      Please don’t dispute the ice cores – they are strong proof that CO2 has nothing to do with temperature. If there were lions, giraffes, elephants and hippos in the Thames Valley when the ice cores show CO2 at 280 ppm. it would be hard even for a warmist to argue that CO2 causes warming. It won’t stop them as a lot seem quite unable to use logic (or even simple arithmetic ) but then they look quite stupid.

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      • #
        TdeF

        Yes, another blogger suggested an article along the same lines

        For myself, the idea that the sudden unexplained warming occured just when it was needed and in the period with the technology switch over seem to be too much of a coincidence.

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      • #
        Richard

        I have often wondered why the IPCC climate models take absolutely no account of the electromagnetic linkage between the Earth and the Sun,which to me seems bound to have profound effects upon all the Earth’s material systems that are all composed of electromagnetic fields essentially.

        Please don’t dispute the ice cores – they are strong proof that CO2 has nothing to do with temperature.

        I don’t see why the ice-core data should be beyond dispute – though it isn’t necessary to dispute to refute CAGW. Stomata data and chemical measurements complied by Georg Beck both show more variability than the ice-core and would suggest that the current CO2 level is not unusual and the ice core does suffer from ‘fractionation processes’ such as gases having different solubility coefficients, meaning the water trapped inside ice-bubbles even at temperatures as low as -73C preferentially absorbs CO2 other less-soluble gases so when dry-measurements are taken CO2 is lower than it otherwise would have been. And because the solubility of CO2 increases when water-temperature decreases, I imagine that the amount of CO2 absorbed by the water would be substantial. Jaworowski has a graph in one of his papers where he compares the dry-measurements with wet melt-measurements and the latter shows CO2 as high as 900ppmv.

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      • #
        Tom O

        Please recognize that “science,” including the ice cores and what they prove or disprove, is supposition. I suppose this is a possibility. Data tends to support it. And always recall Einstein’s comment about his theory, as is the same for all theories, paraphrased here – there can be mountains of evidence that supports a theory, but it doesn’t prove it, but one datum that does not support the theory can disprove it. There are NO absolutes in science, which might also include absolute zero since we haven’t been there to know for sure what does or does not happen. Nothing in “science” is an absolute fact, but we treat it that way, and for the most part, can get away with it. So if there is anything at all that we can honestly be absolutely sure about, it would be that there is nothing that we are absolutely sure about!

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    • #
      Phill

      Hi TdeF, It’s a little off topic but you are both wrong and right about the new thermistors. Whilst they may be able to spit out temperatures to any number of decimal points, the evidence points to them being both less consistent and less accurate than the traditional glass thermometers. The BoM state on their website. “An analysis of the results of existing instrument tolerance checks was also carried out. This found that tolerance checks, which are carried out six-monthly at most ACORN-SAT stations, were within 0.2 °C in 90% of cases for automatic temperature probes, 99% of cases for mercury maximum thermometers and 96% of cases for alcohol minimum thermometers.” At the regional office in Melbourne where than ran both sets of thermometers together at the same location for around 10 years they used this comparison period to bump up past maximums, (recorded by the mercury thermometers) in their ACORN “homogenised” database by around 0.5C. This implies that the automatic electric thermometers, in Melbourne conditions, produce maximum temperatures this much higher than the 99% within spec mercury thermometers. The actual adjustments to the previously recorded maximums ranged from -0.1C to +1.0C.

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  • #
    Bulldust

    Ahhh they only have “severe effects in Earth’s near environment.” I am getting cognitive dissonance … the climate is both resilient (unaffected by these massive outbursts from the sun) but fragile, given that CO2 can topple the whole system in just a few decades.

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  • #
    bemused

    How on Gaia’s name can anything in space affect anything on the Earth? Earth is a completely closed system, immune to anything outside it’s atmosphere. Next someone will be telling us that the moon affects the movement of the oceans!

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    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      Well, it is fortunate that these ropes appear to be attached at both ends. If they weren’t, then there is a possibility that one end could come our way, causing unforeseen effects on the climate. That would make a few climate scientists … “ropable”, I have no doubt.

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      • #
        Yonniestone

        There is certainly “lashings” of sarcasm on this “thread” already…..

        The ropes remind me of a welding arc albeit a massive one, surely wind or solar could power such a machine easily?

        80

        • #
          crakar24

          Yes Yonnie they do thats because they are arcs of plasma just like when you arc weld. Have a look at the “electric universe” theory its very interesting

          cheers

          20

  • #
    Richard111

    Can’t see any at the moment. The sun is spotless right now.

    http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/hmi_igr/512/

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  • #
    john karajas

    Let me give you an analogy of how the new data from the sun can blow large holes through the “Settled Science” prognostications. Back when I started studying Geology in the mid-1960′s Alfred Wegener’s theories on Continental Drift had been regarded with great scorn by the peer reviewers of the geological institutions for a number of decades. Then came along a series of findings from oceanographers and geophysicists that totally blew the old geosynclinal theories on mountain building, etc out of the water. By the end of the 1960′s a totally new paradigm: tectonic plate theory, was established that included ocean floor spreading and continental drift. Alfred Wegener was validated. So, new data is emerging on the sun’s influence on space weather.

    This ain’t sounding like “Settled Science” to me. But, hey, I’m not a government-paid scientist

    O/T for those who watch Australian TV ads: Who had the bright idea of dragging up that clown in the yellow pants and the pink polka dots shirt? Spew!!!!

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    • #
      King Geo

      Great analogy JK. You were studying geology in the mid 1960′s – that means you are definitely older than me and must be closing in on the big 70. My call on the subject matter is, although I am sounding a tad like George W. “Make no mistake – the Sun is the main driver of Earth’s Climate – not CO2″.

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      DavidH

      Alfred Wegener was a meteorologist, not a geologist, so he cannot have been correct.

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      • #
        sophocles

        He wasn’t just a meteorologist. According to his Wikipedia bio:

        He obtained a doctorate in astronomy in 1905 based on a dissertation written under the supervision of Julius Bauschinger at Friedrich Wilhelms University (today Humboldt University), Berlin. Wegener had always maintained a strong interest in the developing fields of meteorology and climatology and his studies afterwards focused on these disciplines.

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        • #
          DavidH

          I was meaning to draw a parallel to how views on climate change by non “climate scientists” are often dismissed out of hand. At the time, Wegener’s theory was not accepted by some purely on the basis I mentioned. (That may not be mentioned in Wikipedia but I have read it in at least one book … if only I could recall the name.)

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    • #
      JohnRMcD

      And I was studying Geology (at U of QLD, as part of a Mining Engineering degree) in 1960-1961 and the geosynclinal theory supposedly explained all. I attended a meeting in Chibougamau, Quebec, (in 1968) given by one Giles Allard which described the continental drift theory and the work that Giles had done in NE Brazil and in Gabon which supported the Wegener theory. There was much discussion, but it seemed to go down a real treat.
      I do not recall any real disagreement with what Giles reported.
      Interestingly, but OT, he ended up at the U of Georgia (in Athens Georgia) and his comment to me (in Kalgoorlie, at another technical meeting) was that his kids ended up speaking Quebec French with a southern accent … bizarre?

      10

  • #
    el gordo

    ‘…a set of loops peel off and grow upward into a multi-strand flux rope within a few minutes.’

    Doesn’t allow much time to warn everyone that there is bad space weather approaching.

    50

    • #
      sophocles

      A CME can take anywhere from 13 hrs (Big, Fast and Mean) to 3.5 days or more, on average. That’s not very long even though it’s longer than a few minutes.

      There’s a huge amount of power in a CME so a direct hit from one is … ummm … spectacular.

      00

  • #
    el gordo

    The ND theory is an interesting read and I look forward to future posts on when we can expect the drop of half a degree, timing is of the essence.

    We’ll witness it as in a rear view mirror and then the Klimatariat will have nowhere to hide.

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  • #
    Geophil

    I concur with the Continental Drift scenario being totally rejected out of hand until you start finding the keys like deep trenches with bathymetry as well as rift zones along plate spreading margins with attendant volcanism that goes with the territory. All that dissolved CO2 from the plethora of volcanoes as well. Now well entrenched and proven hypothesis. Also explains why in the Devonian period it was warm water with a vast variety of marine creatures and plants yet during the Permian we were in much colder climes. I think I prefer the water period.
    Geophil

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    • #
      Rud Istvan

      Geophil, as you undoubtedly know, it is a fascinating story. Wegener was a meteorologist, not a geologist. In his 1912 paper and then four successive book editions starting in 1916, he amassed an incredible weight of circumstantial evidence. Geological strata. Paleontology (fossils. Tropical ferns in coal beds in Svalbard…), differential ‘weight’ of silicaceous crustal and mantle basaltic rock, the midAtlantic Ridge ( known since 1856 and the first transatlantic telegraph cable), … All he lacked was a direct proof, which came in the late 1960′s with measurement of the symmetrical magnetic pole reversals recorded in the seafloor spreading mid Atlantic ridge basalts. Used as one of three examples in the recognition chapter of The Arts of Truth.

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    Geophil

    Oops meant hotter period.
    Geophil

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  • #
    Geophil

    Oops meant hotter period.

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  • #
    pat

    O/T but am so flabbergasted by this one, i have to post it immediately:

    29 April: WUWT: Newsweek Disgracefully Links the Mt Everest Tragedy to Rising CO2
    Guest essay by Jim Steele
    Now with tragic deaths from the earthquake-caused avalanche in Nepal, not even the ground we walk on is safe from the devastating effects of climate change, as Newsweek blathers “More Fatal Earthquakes to Come, Warn Climate Change Scientists” (BY ALEX RENTON)
    “Climate change may play a critical role in triggering certain faults in certain places where they could kill a hell of a lot of people,” says Professor McGuire. Some of his colleagues suspect the process may already have started.
    http://www.newsweek.com/nepal-earthquake-could-have-been-manmade-disaster-climate-change-brings-326017.html
    Be Afraid!
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/04/29/newsweek-disgracefully-links-the-mt-everest-tragedy-to-rising-co2/

    at first i thought it was going to be satire, as insensitive as that might be right now.

    written by Alex Renton,, whose previous Newsweek piece was headlined: “Forget Whisky, Scots Are Producing a New Tipple: Tea” 21 March 2015, so this is surely his LinkedIn:

    LinkedIn: Alex Renton
    Independent Media Production Professional
    Location Edinburgh, UK
    PreviousAvaaz.org, The Independent, London Evening Standard, Oxfam
    Summary
    Newspaper journalist – The Times, Guardian, Observer, Daily Mail.
    Specialties: development and aid, food policy, food culture, food history, humanitarian response, food and health, food industry,
    Campaign Director, Avaaz.org 2011-2012
    am an award-winning journalist (2010: Food journalist of the year; runner-up Amnesty award for work on human rights) . I work predominantly on food policy and culture, and on development issues around the world.
    My work appears in the Times, Guardian, Observer, Daily Mail and Prospect magazine.
    Reporter, features editor, media and advocacy coordinator
    The Independent, London Evening Standard, Oxfam 1987-2004
    https://uk.linkedin.com/pub/alex-renton/5/90b/208

    how anyone can take the MSM seriously, i don’t know.

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      Owen Morgan

      Likewise OT, so I’ll keep it short. That must be the same Professor McGuire who has starred, over the years, in at least three programmes on British TV about supposedly imminent mega-tsunamis, emanating from the Canary Islands.

      “I wants to make your flesh creep.” – the Fat Boy, “The Pickwick Papers“, Charles Dickens.

      00

  • #
    mark

    Surely the sun can’t influence the climate. Its such a long way away. And anyhow it couldn’t influence it at night at all. Models show a diurnal cancelling effect resultant from nocturnal omissions.
    ;-)

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      aussie pete

      Mark!
      Loved it LOL. I’ve never been a fan of diurnal cancelling, especially when i was younger and working night shifts.

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  • #
    Ian Wilson

    Jo Nova said: “Energetic particles, solar winds, changes in radiation and magnetic
    fields, are all candidates for the force (or forces) that influence Earth’s climate”

    Jo, you are missing one important factor in this list!

    Measurements of the variation in the Earth’s length-of-day (LOD) since 700 BC show
    that the changes in this parameter have two main components:

    The first is a steady increase in LOD by 2.3 milliseconds/century (ms/100y) caused by
    the combined gravitational force of the Sun and Moon acting upon the tidal bulge in the
    Earth’s oceans (Stephenson 2003).

    The second is a steady decrease in the LOD by 0.6 ms/100y caused by the post-glacial
    isostatic compensation of the Earth’s crust (Stephenson 2003). The isostatic compensation
    is produced by the steady rebounding of the Earth’s polar crust following the removal of
    the great northern ice-sheets.

    The combined effects of these two components means that, on centennial to millennial
    timescales, the Earth’s overall average LOD has been increasing by ~ 1.7 ms/100y.

    If you look at the absolute long term deviations of the Earth’s LOD about this 1.7 ms/century
    increase, you find that these deviations peak at the same time that asymmetries in the
    motion of the Sun about the centre-of-mass of the Solar System (CMSS).

    Not only that, both the above parameters precede the transition of the Pacific
    Decadal Oscillation (PDO) by 8 to 11 years.

    This relationship is so good that in 2012-13 I predicted that the PDO would turn
    positive sometime in 2015-18 following the maximum asymmetry in the Sun’s motion
    about the CMSS in 2007-8. The transition of the PDO to it positive phase commenced
    in 2014-15. You can see my arguments here:

    http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2015/04/will-pdo-turn-positive-in-next-few-years.html

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        sophocles

        It’s rather intriguing how the centre of the warm blob in the NE Pacific seems to be right about where the Axial submarine volcano has been erupting since 2011.

        Of course, the sun is much more powerful than any mere underwater volcano … and when you add Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide …

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      PeterK

      How would this heliocentric stuff affect the earth, if this is indeed correct. Not a scientist. Just wondering.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jHsq36_NTU&app=desktop

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        sophocles

        Through three major avenues.

        First, there’s light (including Infra Red). It’s measured by us as TSI (Total Solar Irradiance.) Basically it’s the electromagnetic output of the sun. If the klimate scientists are to be believed, it doesn’t vary enough to have any effect on climate. They look only at the Infra-red portion. Variation is actually more significant than that, especially at the more energetic end, the Ultra Violet which seems to have a strong effect on the Stratosphere.

        Secondly, there’s the Sun’s magnetic field. This connects with our planet’s magnetic field through the solar wind. The solar wind is not a steady even stream all the time. This has two effects.

        Sometimes the Solar Wind has very big lumps in it, like CMEs. The link is to Wikipedia which gives a gentle overview. Check the section “Impact on Earth.” That’s just part of it.

        The Solar wind is made of charged particles emitted by the Sun. Moving electric charge creates an associated magnetic field. So the Solar wind effectively draws the Sun’s magnetic field out with it to the heliopause. The Solar Wind’s velocity and strength seems to depend on the Sun’s activity, lower when the sun is `asleep’ and higher when the sun is busy. The magnetic field carrried by the Solar Wind therefore varies in strength with that activity.

        The Galaxy is the third part. It throws high energy atomic particles at us. We call them Cosmic Rays. These are mostly stripped atomic nuclei. The high energy ones hit the top of the earth’s atmosphere, which appears to them as an impenetrable barrier. The resulting collisions with air molecules create large quantities of secondary cosmic rays of lighter particles. Some, like the muons, penetrate to the troposphere where further collisions create huge showers of more atomic debris. These tertiary particles are thought by some to create cloud droplets. In other words, the muons act to modulate (vary or change) the overall cloud cover. The cloud cover acts as a climate thermostat.

        The strength of the sun’s magnetic field drawn out by the solar wind modulates the planet’s cosmic ray exposure. This is the subject of experiment at both CERN and Copenhagen by Henrik Svensmark This facet has been pulled together in a new theory of climate change.

        Piers Corbyn of Weather Action found a link between Solar Activity and Terrestrial weather when he was doing some research into the Solar Wind in the late 1980s. His weather forecasting is based on his discovery and has been found to be “better than chance” and certainly better than the UK Met Office.

        Then there’s Jo’s “Significant Other Half,” Dr. David Evans’ research. It’s been the subject of some hotly contested and argued debate on this web site last year (search this website for it, it’s archived somewhere here). And there’s more to come.

        The “Solar Connection” as this planet’s climate control, is in its very early days. We understand so little about the Sun. The more we learn, the more there is to learn. But it has, over the last twenty or so years, proven to be a much more likely source of the Planet’s climate control than us. We’re far too insignificant and the Galaxy and the Sun wield so much more power than we do.

        Hope all this helps.
        Modulate = where something is varied or changed by changes applied by another thing, repetitively or cyclically.

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      Criddle Dog

      Yeah, spot on John. I’ve just started to get into this myself, and I reckon anyone with a basic electrical background would be fascinated. It seems to me too that there are parallels between the classic astrophysicists and Thornhill, Scott et al. on the one hand, and the AGW catastrophists and the skeptics on the other. It’s a bloody minefield.

      Cheers

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    Tanner

    Pier Luigi Ighina – Law of Rhythm

    ;)

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    el gordo

    It appears cooling has already begun. Two datasets agree its not a plateau, more a slippery slope.

    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/image107.png

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    Neville

    This is O/T but is probably the most important change in satellite data measurement for UAH since 1979. UAH and RSS now both show over 18 years of zero warming and remember RSS shows no statistically significant warming for 26 years.( McKitrick)
    If UAH also shows no SS warming for 26 years this should make some of the extremists shudder. So where is their CAGW?
    Here is Roy Spencer’s link. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/04/version-6-0-of-the-uah-temperature-dataset-released-new-lt-trend-0-11-cdecade/#comments

    And here is a brief version from Bob Tisdale at WUWT.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/04/29/new-uah-lower-troposphere-temperature-data-show-no-global-warming-for-more-than-18-years/#comment-1921046

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    Uzurbrain

    Talk to your friends that are Ham Radio Operators about the effects of sunspots, solar flares and other changes in solar magnetic fields. It is like a big radio transmitter. that electromagnetic radiation (radio waves) hits the earth and has to do something to the atmosphere, ground and ocean waters. Yes, some do not penetrate the atmosphere but that means it was absorbed by the atmosphere. Same for the ground and ocean. I have measured noise levels in excess of 50 millivolts across large portions of the amateur bands during one of these events. Power = E squared / Resistance, Therefore the fifty foot antenna hooked up to my radio is receiving a few microwatts of power, Now multiply all of the possible theoretical antennas that will receive this radio wave and cause some heating, Then you have to consider the fact tha all of the radio waves attenuated by the atmosphere, all of the electromagnetic radiation that did not reach these antennas has done something to the atmosphere. Basically the earth has been placed in a “micro wave” Oven (like the microwave oven in your kitchen, for a period of days. And the AGW crowd claims that this has no effect on “global warming.” Then, you need to consider and determine what happens when the number of these events on the Sun decreases. They will also have an effect on “Global Warming” or can I say “Global Cooling?” How can the AGW ignore these effects? Are they too poor to own a Microwave oven?

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    Roy Hogue

    Many years ago I was in a position to hear first hand in my headphones what the effects of QRN (natural RF interference as opposed to man made) are. On one shift the noise level was so bad (constant high level white noise) that even having my other end tuned perfectly and being able to identify his transmitter by its distinctive sound, I couldn’t copy a single word.

    I’ve no way of knowing the source of that particular noise but it was most likely local atmospheric conditions from storm activity or the very low humidity at the time. Other shifts were plagued with various kinds of QRN and I’ve no doubt about what you say regarding sunspots. Anything that causes RF at your antenna is going to be heard. And at the right wavelength might well influence atmospheric conditions. I don’t know for sure if climate can be affected by such things but the suspicion may be well worth investigating.

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    Ruairi

    That science might claim to detect,
    A climate change Sun-Earth effect,
    From the magnetic flux,
    Is for warmists a crux,
    As it makes their own theory suspect.

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    Gerald Wilhite

    This discussion reminds me of Professor Henrik Svensmark’s cosmic ray-cloud connections with climate. Of course this is all worthless research since the US President has proclaimed that “Climate Science is Settled”. Also there’s an even bigger problem in that it came from Professor Henrik Svensmark, a renegade European climate scientist who insists on using old fashioned procedures. He is a very dangerous man with worthless ideas, according to the conventional AGW climate science community and their masters.

    Here is Svensmark’s latest paper:
    http://www.europhysicsnews.org/articles/epn/abs/2015/02/epn2015462p26/epn2015462p26.html

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    sophocles

    Repeat after me. The Sun does not affect Earth’s climate. (Good boys and girls. You are fit for a government grant.)

    So that’s why I haven’t been able to get one. Bother.

    Piers Corbyn (Weather Action long range weather prediction) is able to make a living from his SLAT (Solar Luna Action Technique) providing 30 + day weather trend information for paying clients. He speaks with withering scorn of the UK Met Office’s Super Computer Super-CO2 predictions. Fortunately, the Internet preserves such prognostications in all their delicious flavour. The MO forecast for the winter of 2008-2009 was “mild” and landscape was painted white from Land’s End to John O’ Groats. So was Ireland. The famous NASA satellite photo of …mild winter of 2009-2010 rather destroyed the UK MO prediction of a second “mild” winter for 2009-2010 (aka The Deep Freeze) and belied Dr Viner’s infamous declaration “Snow Falls are now just a thing of the past”. Just to rub it in, there was this white England in 2013.

    I was watching the space weather in early March. It was a bit rocky and Corbyn had declared it to be “RED R5″—extreme weather likely. This weather analysis said things were calming down after some ” solar filaments threw a hissy fit ” over a coronal hole whose solar wind effects would soon be felt. It showed weather around the globe at that time (about 2m14s in). Apart from that, everything was seeming to calm down. No sign of TC Pam. Then region 2297 rotated into view throwing out 99 C-flares, 24 M-flares and 1 X-flare over the next ten days. The CME from the X flare on March 11 came our way.

    Tropical Cyclone Pam formed on March 6, and reached tropical cyclone intensity by March 8 or 9 and intensified to Category 5 by March 12.

    With all that Space and Terrestrial weather coinciding so neatly, and Corbyn’s RED R5 alert posted, could this be mere Coincidence? The Auroral activity after the March 11 X-class flare was spectacular. The Aurora Australis was briefly if barely visible in the southern most Auckland sky.

    So listen up all you good girls and boys. Listen to Aunty Jo. The sun does not cause weather. Got that? Not in a million years.
    Yeah, right. You be the judge. It can’t be all those climate models … :-)

    On a different note, I’m delighted to hear of David’s further progress in his research. I very much look forward to reading more about it.

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    Robert O

    People seem to forget history, pre 1900 records on temperature etc., but the Carrington event of 1859 with its Coronial Mass Ejection certainly influenced the earth and put most electricity and telegraph networks at the time out of commission. Could it happen again; highly likely sometime soon and it cannot be stopped with a carbon tax as a sacrifice to the the deity or the UN. Just think for a few seconds of the havoc it would create, no power, no internet, no TV or radio, a lot of people being electrocuted… mind boggling.

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      UzUrBrain

      They are going to fix this with the “Smart Grid.” This new state of the art system designed to predict and anticipate all of the whims and desires of man in their use of electricity and the chaotic randomness of the availability of wind, the strength of the wind, sun, cloud cover, day and night fall and reroute electricity accordingly. These systems will all be designed with the newest microprocessors and sensors.
      These are the ones that the installation instructions in large red letters state “Electrostatic Discharge (ESD) protection procedures must be followed when installing this component.”
      Having worked for an electric utility for more that 40 years I can tell you that even with all of the safeguards that the manufactures of these sensors build into the equipment for these new “solid state” sensors, breaker control circuitry, Overload protection circuits, ground fault detectors, etc. that all it takes is a bolt of lightning to wipe out a sub-station. I have seen components get fried from the use of a hand-held radio when the breaker cabinet was open! Any self respecting “CME” is going to wipe out the entire “Smart Grid.” Even the military is concerned as all of their above ground radio instillations, transmitters and receivers will be turned into bricks, worthless. Many instillations maintain vacuum tube back up systems, just in case – and that is for the Nuclear EMP. They even question the survival of underground, isolated, systems. And we are going to design a Smart grid that can survive an CME. Forget it! My experience has shown me that only the old mechanical circuit protection systems will live through a lightning strike. However, I do not think they are fast enough to protect from a CME. But at least you may have a system that you can restart afterword’s. With transistors and microprocessors all you will have is burnt circuit boards, un-operable breakers and no electricity.

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        Wayne Job

        UZ I just had a pacemaker fitted to my heart two days ago and can not go within two metres of any welding our it will bugger up.
        These solar events may kill many people including me.

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          Quite scary that such vital devices aren’t sufficiently hardened to cope with a normal environment.

          Unfortunately, it seems par for the course: ’tis better to have sinned and to beg for forgiveness than to have never sinned at all.

          Automotive electronics used to have to be hardened to survive simulated lightning strikes. Don’t know if that is the case any more.

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      sophocles

      It was most noticed in the US and Canada. Another one would probably have most ill effect on the US and Canada and not so much on the rest of the world, because they are almost within walking distance of the North Magnetic Pole.

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    STJOHNOFGRAFTON

    The Sun’s keloid scar.

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    RB

    I’ve mentioned before that the global temperature estimates are your biggest problem with the models. I suspect that climate is correlated to the derivative of TSI rather than there is half a period delay. But only suspect because of the data.

    That fits a negative feedback. As TSI is increasing, the world warms until the negative feed back builds up. The 98 El Nino peak makes the oceans the main suspect for the negative feedback.

    We might have to wait 40-50 years after the BS ends to find out.

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    Peter C

    Gee Aye had a question @2.1

    Now everyone back to the sun. I have a question. These ropes are unknown but is their influence on Earth climate unmeasured? It is true we don’t fully understand how the sun works but does this mean we have miss-measured solar output?

    I don’t know the answer. I have wondered how well the solar output is measured. Estimates of the sun’s effective black body temperature vary considerably.

    MIT comes up with 6000K.

    Robert Rohde finds that a black body curve of 5525K best fits his spectral calculation.

    The difference in solar irradiation at the distance of the earth would amount to about 20%.

    Monckton says that the solar irradiance is measured by cavitometers abourd satellites. What is a cavitomenter?

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    J.H.

    Flux ropes…. aren’t they field aligned currents, better known as Birkeland currents, except these ones are highly energetic?

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    Hi Peter… thanks for making me read all the way down here.

    It sounds like his lordship is playing word games to make up his own jargon or at least it is not a very common term if it is used by other people. Cavito- is a prefix derived from cavitate

    (sciences) To form vapour bubbles in a flowing liquid in a region where the pressure of the liquid falls below its vapour pressure.

    and you know what the suffix meter means.

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    Louis Hissink

    The go to text on all this is The Physics of the Plasma Universe, second edition, AJ Peratt, 2015?

    Magnetic flux tubes are Birkeland currents.

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      crakar24

      Been looking at that recently Louis, its an interesting concept, all indicators are the sun is about to shut down and have a sleep for a while……….of course its only a theory.

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    Wayne Job

    Science should be based on facts not conjectures, so I have two facts. 1] The sun is our only heater. 2] If a heater varies in output the heated objects temperature varies.

    The AGW mob must have the belief that the sun is an unvarying constant, this is instantly disproved by solar cycles and the suns hissy fits. I do tend to feel some pity for the true believer scientists of AGW, as in the long term they will find their careers wasted on BS.

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    KuhnKat

    “Flux ropes are bundles of magnetic fields that together rotate and twist around a common axis, driven by motions in the photosphere,”

    DRIVEN BY MOTIONS…

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

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    tom0mason

    Also of interest may be this
    http://www.nanowerk.com/news2/space/newsid=39926.php

    Where they say -

    (Nanowerk News) The famous sunspots on the surface of the Earth’s star result from the dynamics of strong magnetic fields, and their numbers are an important indicator of the state of activity on the Sun. At the Institute of Nuclear Physics of the Polish Academy of Sciences in Kraków, Poland, researchers have been conducting multifractal analysis into the changes in the numbers of sunspots. The resulting graphs were surprisingly asymmetrical in shape, suggesting that sunspots may be involved in hitherto unknown physical processes.

    Mathematical analysis of multifractals provides invaluable information on the dynamic phenomena, as they occur to varying degrees of complexity. The results are useful in a number of ways, but most importantly, they can allows us to discard the influence of current, longstanding trends. In an article published in the journal Physical Review E scientists at the Institute of Nuclear Physics of the Polish Academy of Sciences (INP PAS) in Krakow, Poland, have shown for the first time that certain overlooked features of the graphs of multifractals, known as singularity spectra of the time series, have in fact a close relationship with the nature of the analyzed phenomena (“Detecting and interpreting distortions in hierarchical organization of complex time series”).

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    el gordo

    Dansgaard-Oeschger events seem to be internally forced, presumably through earth’s magnetic fields.

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    Criddle Dog

    I still think we need a green thumb, a red thumb, and a question mark.

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    Jo,

    I look forward to David’s next exposition on ND. And other things.

    I’m currently working with an American living in Tasmania on some projects. We will be making some announcements when we get our ducks lined up.

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    ScotsmaninUtah

    Earth’s motion around the Sun, not as simple as one may think

    a very informative look at the motion of our Earth in relation to the Sun.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82p-DYgGFjI

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