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CO2 is not making storms worse near Japan either

Posted By Joanne Nova On March 23, 2015 @ 5:15 pm In Global Warming | Comments Disabled

Yet more evidence that there is no relationship between CO2 and cyclones, hurricanes, and typhoons. This paper from 2012 tests the theory that global warming made storms more severe and tried to find any effect on typhoons hitting Japan that could be linked to climate change since 1980.

There has been no increase in “super typhoons”. The typhoon season is not longer, nor is it delayed in starting. There has been no change in intensity. The wind speeds are not increasing. The minimum pressure is pretty much the same.

CO2 appears to influence storms in simulated worlds, but not so much in the real one. There is no sign of more severe storms in Australia, New Zealand or the South Pacific either. Nor is there any pattern in the Global Energy indicies, US Hurricanes, US Tornadoes either.

When will scientists and reporters make sure that their audiences know that?

The authors conclude:

“The results suggest that typhoons have not been influenced by global warming. In conclusion, global warming has not significantly changed the characteristics of typhoons, and there is no close relationship between the two.”

Figure 19. Number of super typhoons that develop

” A super typhoon is defined as a typhoon with a mean maximum wind velocity (for one minute) of 130 knots (67 m/s) or higher”

Figure 14. Numbers of typhoons that hit Japan from October in ten-year periods (total)

 

Figure 7. Average number of typhoons that hit Japan

 

 

Figure 15.  Changes in the minimum  pressure of  typhoons

Curiously, it looks like there may not be as many cyclones with a low minimum pressure below 900 hPa, but the wind speeds didn’t decrease. Perhaps the spread of atmospheric pressures narrowed, though even if this is associated with a warmer climate, that doesn’t mean  CO2 had anything to do with it. And since wind speed is what matters, it’s a mere curiosity.

Figure 16. Number of typhoons with a minimum pressure of 900 hPa or lower

 Changes in the intensity of typhoons that occurred after 1950 were examined based on minimum atmospheric pressures and maximum wind velocities. The results do not support the theory that the intensity of typhoons has become higher due to global warming.

Although there was a decrease in the number of typhoons with a low minimum pressure, the number of typhoons with a high maximum wind velocity did not decrease. In recent years, the intensity of typhoons has become higher even when the atmospheric pressure is not very low; there has been a change in the relation between the minimum atmospheric pressure and maximum wind velocity.

There was also no increase in the average minimum atmospheric pressure.

Abstract

The present paper examines the theory that global warming causes abnormal weather phenomena involving typhoons, focusing on the numbers of typhoons that develop and hit Japan and their intensities. According to records, since 1980, there has been a decrease in the annual number of typhoons that develop during the year, whereas there has been an increase in those that approach and hit Japan. The annual number of typhoons since 1980 is the same as in the period between 1951 and 1960. The numbers of typhoons that approached and hit the country were the highest during the period from 1951 to 1970, and started to decline between 2001 and 2010. When compared to the data on the numbers of typhoons that developed, approached, and hit Japan during the period from 1951 to 1970, there have been no significant changes since 1980. Data on the monthly numbers of typhoons that develop, approach, and hit also suggest that there has been no significant prolongation of the typhoon season or delay in its start. Regarding the intensity of typhoons, there has been no significant change in the mean minimum pressure of typhoons, a decrease in the number of typhoons with a very low minimum pressure, and no significant increase in the number of typhoons with a very large maximum wind velocity.

 

h/t to Steve (again).

REFERENCE

Masakazu Yamashita, Jun Mitsumata, Does Global Warming Affect Typhoon Patterns in Japan? Discussion from the Viewpoints of the Numbers of Typhoons That Develop, Approach, and Hit Japan, and Their Intensities, Resources and Environment, Vol. 3 No. 5, 2013, pp. 115-128. doi: 10.5923/j.re.20130305.02. [abstract]

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