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BoM Forum Panel: one-day-wonder. Rigorous as Annual Cakes and Tea Jamboree

Last August the BoM were feeling the heat — Graham Lloyd at The Australian and skeptics, particularly Jennifer Marohasy, were asking why cooling trends were being revised to warming trends at stations with no recorded moves. People were raising eyebrows at embarrassing questions about why the Bureau thought climate change was all-critical, yet they were tossing out historic Stevenson-screen data. The BoM felt so squeezed they finally answered some basic questions they’d been ignoring for years (like details on Rutherglen).

But the pressure kept growing because nobody needs a degree in Meteorology to know that there ought to be a reason for fiddling with historic thermometer data. The dumb punters were not impressed with the excuse that stations “might” have moved because tricky statistics on other stations 300km away detected an “unrecorded shift”. So the BoM and their apologist friends in The Dept of Environment dusted off a 3 year old idea called a Technical Advisory Forum, pulled out some names of respectable sounding statisticians and “voila” — created a one day wonder. The “technical forum” will spend more time releasing press releases than analyzing data.

On Jan 19th we were promised so much. The full gloss press release ticks all the right keywords:

The establishment of this Forum will provide an independent framework for quality assurance tests and analysis of the Bureau’s data sets for greater transparency.

Blah blah blah. Finally the Terms of Reference are out, and we can see the meat: a new ultra thin variety of Nano-Spam.

The Forum will meet all its goals and peer reviewed angels will sing, if it … “provides comment”. It’s hard to imagine all those academics saying absolutely nothing, so I’m expecting it to be declared a complete and rigorous success. It is bound to be “world’s best practice” because the rest of the world is dismal too. No bureau anywhere ever publishes all the information, all the historic data, and all the details of their mystery homogenie which transforms past temperatures with a cold wand.  The comprehensive and in-depth extent of the panel is such that “Forums will run over one day, every year.” (Don’t scoff, it is a whole day which has a morning and an afternoon, and they have different agendas. So this is extended “Tea and Cakes” — there is even lunch). All the pre-reading materials will be given to the members at least “a fortnight” beforehand.

Jennifer Marohasy wrote to Bob Baldwin today expressing her disapproval. She describes the pointless forum as Like Expecting George Pell to Admit Pedophilia During Sunday Sermon.

As she so rightly says, the Church of the B0M hath spoken, and no dissidents will be heard.

 

Dear Mr Baldwin

Re: Robust assessment of the trusted and respected Bureau of Meteorology obviously requires that the dissident view be heard

There once existed a broad consensus that the Church must be the ultimate judge of scientific truths.  That was before the enlightenment.  More recently, there was an equally mistaken consensus that the Church could provide a safe environment for little children.

Those who dared suggested otherwise were first ignored, then ridiculed, and only much later able to fight for truth and justice.   When their concerns finally registered, there was disbelief that such outrageous abuse was allowed to persist for so long.

In your recent appointment as ‘Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for the Environment’ with responsibility for the Bureau of Meteorology, you have the opportunity to provide a forum for dissident voices to be heard concerning what is perceived by many to be the bastardization of Australia’s temperature record.

Eventually, simply through the establishment of a forum of experts tasked with hearing the alternative evidence, history might  record you as courageous, and as having begun a process that ultimately exposed the deceit and bias that now riddles this once most respected and trusted organization.   This, I thought, was indeed a possibility when I read your media release of January 19, 2015, outlining the establishment of a technical advisory forum that would undertake a “robust assessment” of Australia’s official temperature data set.

Then, just today I was provided with the actual terms of reference for this forum comprising eight statisticians and/or mathematicians, and I see that they intend to meet for only one day each year.  Furthermore, during the morning of this one day they will be lectured to by Bureau scientists, with the afternoon devoted to discussion.

Indeed the current format is likely to be as useful at getting to the bottom of our issues with the Bureau’s revisionist approach to Australia’s climatic history, as expecting George Pell to voluntarily admit pedophilia during a Sunday sermon.

If indeed you are serious about a robust assessment of the Bureau’s handling of temperature data, then I urge you to immediately modify the format for the forum.   I urge you to immediately establish a mechanism for public critical review including testimony from dissidents.

Yours sincerely

Dr Jennifer Marohasy, Independent Scientist

Golly but aren’t methods of temperature-homogenification closely guarded secrets?

Thanks to Bill and Jennifer.

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Rating: 9.1/10 (124 votes cast)
BoM Forum Panel: one-day-wonder. Rigorous as Annual Cakes and Tea Jamboree, 9.1 out of 10 based on 124 ratings

154 comments to BoM Forum Panel: one-day-wonder. Rigorous as Annual Cakes and Tea Jamboree

  • #

    How to have a forum when you’re not really having a forum.

    How can highly paid “professionals” sleep at night?

    472

    • #
      Ted

      Its called “Cognitive Dissonance Forte” a special formulation of sedative. Only available on special prescription to the appropriate few.

      With “Cognitive Dissonance”, an amnesiac, the more you are paid the more and the easier it is to forget.

      With the ‘Forte” version comes the added benefit of sound nocturnal slumber, along with the ability to pat ones children on the head, and lecture them on things like …say, Truth, Morality, Ethics, the Scientific Method. I would like to russell some up for you but Flannery and Co stole the key to the formulary. They have hogged in and I doubt much will remain when the cold weather comes.

      272

    • #
      John DeFayette

      Deeply and peacefully, thank you, on sheets of fine taxpayer furnished silk.

      Don’t forget–they’re Saving the World.

      202

      • #
        Spotted Reptile

        You are right. They DO want to save the world. They want to save it for themselves.
        The Lefty bureaucrats all round the world in different agencies all recognise the exciting fact that they belong to an exclusive club -the one left standing when everybody else has been discarded in the rubbish bin. All this so-called compassion and moral duty is nothing more than the rationalisation they have to concoct so they can hide the fact that is simply power that they want, and their end goal is to rule in a world they have made themselves.
        Oh yes they sleep at night. The world will be a ‘better place’. They are like soldiers on a mission. And soldiers never give up till their mission is complete.

        222

        • #
          Binny

          Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.” C.S. Lewis

          260

    • #
      aussieguy

      They’re clearly covering up something. If they have nothing to hide, they wouldn’t be behaving this way.

      If they’re honest with taxpayer’s money and genuinely care about the information they push out, they would let the public openly view their procedures, policies, etc. ie: “I have nothing to hide. And to prove it, I am willing to open up all my books, etc for you to review.”

      They aren’t interested in any of that. They know they’ve done wrong and their superficial actions are an attempt to throw out a decoy (a nonsensical “forum”) in hopes the people would just go away without questioning them.


      Sorry BoM, you are taxpayer funded. As taxpayers, we have every right to question any suspicious behaviour…Like tinkering with numbers to suit a political agenda and hoping no one would notice!


      Side note:

      Is it me or have activists succeeded in their “long march” into our institutions to politicise everything and cause ruin to many?

      ABC => It used to follow its own charter. Its reporters were told to leave their feelings, biases, opinions, etc out of their reporting. Just give Australians the information.

      Education (more specifically, the syllabus) => It used to produce competent students who can count, spell, etc.

      CSIRO => It used to be run by scientists.

      BoM => It used to record and report weather conditions.

      Legal system => It used to put criminals away and kept society safe.


      What’s interesting is that they all behave similar. They deny, ignore, play down, etc issues raised by others. Especially regarding their questionable behaviour. They have much difficulty with concepts like honesty and integrity. They are filled with bureaucrats that use Govt as an extension to their activism. They have this arrogance about them. Believing its OK to outright lie and tinker with things to suit their political agenda.

      What I mean is, this arrogance of “I know better than you. I know what’s good for all of you. I’m doing this for your own good. Its for the greater good”. They have this lack of understanding in the purpose of the depts they run. This lack of moral understanding in terms of responsibilities as a public servant. ie: A public servant is supposed to serve the public. Not abide by their political narratives, agendas, and biases.

      Knowing how Govt dept works (my sister and father used to work in legal and education depts respectively, so I’m familiar with such culture), we need to keep going with this in order to find out what’s really going on. It is a guaranteed fact of life that bureaucrats will keep throwing obstacles to delay things in a hope we would give up and go away. One must be very patient in this game!

      When push comes to shove, bureaucrats hope they will be lost in a sea of bureaucrats. (So no one can really be held responsible for dodgy behaviour). If that fails, they will look out for number one! They won’t have any problems pointing fingers at someone else when the crapper hits the fan and the consequences are flung everywhere!

      If things go to hell, no doubt the head of the dept will be removed (because someone must be politically held responsible), but the people who actually did the deed will still be there! Although, they will be forced to behave. (They don’t want to lose their govt job and the benefits it provides. Perks and retirement packages.)

      In the end, keep going with this. When it comes to questioning Govt depts, its really a game of patience. They win if you give up.

      712

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Its classic “Yes Minister” at play – control both sides of the argument…create a “panel” and limit the terms of reference so severely that it is useless.

        At times I fear for our country – we have moved morally to no better than the Banana Republic Keating warned of all those years ago.

        170

    • #
      Dennis

      On a taxpayer funded full stomach?

      92

    • #
      Manfred

      They sleep very comfortably bereft of any thought than the noble engagement of performing what the UNEP asks of them, much like their self-satisfied green compatriots of the dystopian inner city.

      Official sybaritic appointments should come with a requirement to self-insure against the risk of absolute accountability.

      Yes, and pigs will fly.

      102

    • #
      Yonniestone

      “BOM staff sleep peaceably in their beds only because rough scientists stand ready in the night to visit incompetence on those records that would make it warm.” ht/ Orwell, Grenier.

      41

    • #
      Peter Carabot

      A “Clayton Forum”?

      10

  • #

    Jo Nova and Ken Stewart have been an absolute inspiration. You achieved the withdrawal of the HQ homogenised set… http://joannenova.com.au/2012/06/threat-of-anao-audit-means-australias-bom-throws-out-temperature-set-starts-again-gets-same-results/

    We just have to keep going.

    692

    • #
      Michael Whittemore

      You can see from this Berkeley Earth Graph the BOM pick the early 1900s to hide the past warming. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2014/aug/27/climate-sceptics-see-a-conspiracy-in-australias-record-breaking-heat

      69

      • #
        James Bradley

        Michael,

        Your graph published by The Guardian does seem to show lower historical Australian temperatures than today – what caused the Federation Drought then I wonder, because we haven’t had one of those since… Federation?

        182

        • #
          Scott L

          James I think you will find Michael agrees the BOM is hiding the past warming through its cherry picked start date.

          He has just used that graph to highlight the cherry picked start date.

          80

          • #
            James Bradley

            Scott,

            I suppose he just forgot to add (sarc).

            20

            • #
              Michael Whittemore

              In the article

              (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2014/aug/27/climate-sceptics-see-a-conspiracy-in-australias-record-breaking-heat)

              Professor Neville Nicholls gives some reasons why the BOM records tend to start around 1910: “The original raw data is all still there – it has not been corrupted. Anyone can go and get that original data. Pre-1910 there was not much of a spread but also there was more uncertainty about how the temperatures were being measured. By 1910, most temperatures were being measured in a Stevenson Screen. A lot of measurements were taken at Post Offices but in many cases these were moved out to airports around the middle of the 20th century. That produces artificial cooling in the data.

              Towns for example in coastal New South Wales originally had temperatures taken near the ocean because that’s where the town was. But as the town grew the observations would move inland and that is enough to affect temperature and rainfall.

              Are we supposed to just ignore that? A scientist can’t ignore those effects. It’s not science to just go ahead and plot that raw data.”

              The article goes on to say

              “[Jennifer Marohasy] central claim – that BoM is doctoring figures to make them more acceptable to a narrative of warming – remains entirely untested in the scientific literature, the bureau’s methods used to compile ACORN-SAT have been peer reviewed […] In June, Marohasy made her claims about BoM to the Sydney Institute. In July she travelled to Las Vegas to speak at the Heartland Institute’s gathering of climate science denialists and assorted contrarians.”

              Let’s hope this BoM Forum Panel might shed some light on these claims.

              120

              • #

                Michael Whittemore

                say, maybe you’re right here.

                How unfair of all those Coastal towns to take the temperatures where they used to take them.

                So they should move them all back into the towns themselves.

                That way, they can hoodwink the public into believing that temperatures have actually increased.

                All they have to do is sneakily not tell them that in the town itself, those temperatures are now all of them higher, now thanks to the Urban Heat Island effect, thus proving that temperatures are in fact increasing.

                After all, the general public will believe anything they are told. Umm, take you for instance.

                Tony.

                181

              • #
                Michael Whittemore

                Of cause I’m right Tony, I don’t know if you have noticed but I don’t believe one word that is uttered here. But of cause I research everything to ensure it’s wrong. Let’s take you for example.. You think a temperature station that is moved from the middle of a town near the ocean to kilometers inland near an airport would not affect its temperature results. This is why you don’t work for BOM, their work has to be based on peer review, not made up nonsense.

                08

              • #

                ” I don’t believe one word that is uttered here.”

                Which is why it is kinda pointless talking to you. It doesn’t matter what we say — You know we are wrong.

                “of cause I research everything to ensure it’s wrong”

                Thanks for confirming…

                “peer review, not made up nonsense”

                And if the BOM says that they can detect unrecorded station moves 100 years ago using records from stations 300km away you believe them don’t you?

                130

              • #
                James Bradley

                Michael,

                That would be why temperatures at towns that are deemed to be non-representative of the warming trend are homogenised to suit temperatures from towns 300klms that represent the desired trend.

                141

              • #
                Michael Whittemore

                One thing you can be sure of James is Joanne’s strive for excellences, she links the 300km claim which you try and twist because you have basically nothing. Joanne shows http://joannenova.com.au/2014/09/explain-this-rutherglen-homogenized-with-17-stations-including-hillston/ it’s a regional homogenised and there was one station used that was about 300km away but that could just be for statistical reasons. Joanne even provides a map of all the stations http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/maps/rutherglen-district-sml.gif

                08

              • #
                James Bradley

                Michael,

                You write:

                “You think a temperature station that is moved from the middle of a town near the ocean to kilometers inland near an airport would not affect its temperature results. This is why you don’t work for BOM, their work has to be based on peer review, not made up nonsense.”

                So you attack data from a station moved 1 klm as unscientific then you defend the homoginisation of regional temperatures over hundreds of kilometres.

                What I have is a trained observer’s eye for detail and common sense.

                Data is data, homogenised data is chaff.

                Here’s the thing, alarmists eventually become sceptics, sceptics never become alarmists – your belief base is dwindling.

                70

              • #
                James Bradley

                Michael,

                You write:

                “Towns for example in coastal New South Wales originally had temperatures taken near the ocean because that’s where the town was. But as the town grew the observations would move inland and that is enough to affect temperature and rainfall.

                Are we supposed to just ignore that? A scientist can’t ignore those effects. It’s not science to just go ahead and plot that raw data.”So with your example of NSW coastal towns:

                1. How are the readings homogenised?

                2. Are the early reading homogenised up to match the later readings or are the later reading homogenised down to match the earlier readings?

                3. Why does the movement of location affect scientific process as it is a new series from a different location which has a unique data set and has no relation to the data set from the suspended location?

                4. Why homogenise data to assimilate anomalies – it’s the anomalies that tell the story.

                5. Wouldn’t it be more scientific to gauge trends on a micro regional system to calculate actual changes using raw data rather than on a macro regional system where the data is corrupted by homoginisation and the actual trend is lost in that process?

                40

              • #
                Just-A-Guy

                Michael Whittmore,

                Of cause I’m right Tony, I don’t know if you have noticed but I don’t believe one word that is uttered here.

                Why are you here then?

                Abe

                30

              • #
                Michael Whittemore

                Joanne says “Which is why it is kinda pointless talking to you. It doesn’t matter what we say”

                I was more referring to comments from others. I find your posts very informative and well referenced.

                Joanne says “if the BOM says that they can detect unrecorded station moves 100 years ago using records from stations 300km away you believe them don’t you?”

                You are the one that referenced that they used over 17 stations surrounding the station that was moved. The outlier weather stations you are referring to are used to increase accuracy. (http://joannenova.com.au/2014/09/explain-this-rutherglen-homogenized-with-17-stations-including-hillston/) (http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/maps/rutherglen-district-sml.gif) I thought it was a great post and I wish the BOM would be as clear as you when they do their adjustments. Scientific communication is so important.

                James says “So you attack data from a station moved 1 klm as unscientific then you defend the homoginisation of regional temperatures over hundreds of kilometres.”

                If you have a weather station move 1km it might not show a significant change but if it went from the middle of a town to the middle of an open field then it might show a change. The data from the moved station is used, both from its original position and its new position which in itself is a short regional temperature record. Just as you use the two temperature records from the original and new position, you also include as many surrounding weather stations to ensure accuracy as shown in this map http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/maps/rutherglen-district-sml.gif (http://joannenova.com.au/2014/09/explain-this-rutherglen-homogenized-with-17-stations-including-hillston/)

                If you did not homogenise the data it could not be used to show climate change over the past hundred years, it would simply be data that ended when the station was moved and started again in the new position. Of cause the data is all still there for everyone to see but when trying to figure out long term regional/continental change over the last 100 years, you need to do a little homogenisation of moved stations. Its better then just leaving them out.

                Just a Guy says “Why are you here then?”

                The climate debate has become one of censorship, if you go against consensus you are silenced. A lot of climate science researched is done because sceptics have pointed out problems. I focus my time on sceptics points in the hope of finding an area to research.

                00

        • #
          Binny

          Actually I have the family farm rainfall records from that period. The match between to last 15 years, and the first 15 years of the 1900′s is eye opening.
          The rain gauge is still in the same spot, the post was replaced in the same hole in the 1990′s.
          The main reason farmer don’t buy AGW is because we have our own long term records. It you find a farmer who does, odds on, they will either be hoping to sell carbon credits, or have been on the farm less then one generation.

          281

      • #
        James Bradley

        Michael,

        New research from the University of NSW shows eddies in the southern ocean with increased wind are responsible for much of the absorbtion of CO2 and heat causing this ‘pause’.

        Boy oh boy, combine the current heat sucked in by the deep ocean with all the heat sucked out of the Federation Drought and we are gonna be in for one helluva time when it finally blows.

        161

        • #
          Barry

          As Douglas Adams would say, ‘What’s Eddy doing in the Southern Ocean.’

          20

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          I am rather interested in Eddy … such a nice mover, and what a superb mixer? I mean Eddy gets to introduce all that, “hot” CO2 to the rather vapourous H2O, so as to , as they say, “spread the heat”, it all get very exciting, if you know what I mean.

          It would be nice if H2O could hang around until the end of the party, but inevitably, it feels the need to ask for a rain check. Such is life.

          30

        • #
          Thomas The Tank Engine

          I heard about “giant whirlpools” some time ago from a warmist and just laughed.

          20

      • #
        James Bradley

        Michael,

        BTW, the UoNSW research makes that about the 67th confirmation of the long term long term gloabal warming ‘pause’ along with yet another theory for why we are all eventually doomed when the warming recommences.

        161

      • #
        James Bradley

        Michael,

        No it’s not a double entry, it is the long term long term global warming pause as it has obviously continued since Federation – I mean how else can you justify the ‘Deep Ocean Heat Suck Mechanism’ other than as part of the natural cycle… or devine intervention.

        121

    • #
      tom0mason

      As Wm Briggs said so many times (for instance here http://wmbriggs.com/post/6854/) -

      Today’s lesson

      The data is the data. When desiring to discuss the data, discuss the data, do not talk about the model. The model is always suspect until it can be checked. That always takes more time than people are willing to give.

      They can model and adjust and pretend that it is then ‘data’ that they play with but reality has the data, the actual measurements is the data – nothing else!

      232

      • #
        Winston

        And as Lionel Griffiths kindly pointed out, when you alter data, it therefore ceases to be data.

        200

        • #
          tom0mason

          I was trying, in my less than direct manner, to address Joanne’s point -

          …and their apologist friends in The Dept of Environment dusted off a 3 year old idea called a Technical Advisory Forum, pulled out some names of respectable sounding statisticians and “voila” — created a one day wonder.

          As Mr. W. Briggs is a well known and well respected professional statistician. Sorry I missed the target.

          10

  • #
    mem

    I am flabbergasted. The disrespect shown to the Australian science community and the general voting public is appalling. I will contact my local member of parliament tomorrow. Time to activate Jo and Jennifer. This is not good enough. Good letter by the way. Hope you have sent it to the Australian. They at least might publish it.

    452

  • #
    mem

    I have just re-read your article and now think it relates to last year. There are no dates on letter to go by so can you clarify as I think I just made a goose of myself. I thought that you were talking about the current review and hence totally thrown for six.

    62

  • #
    pat

    whatever the weather, there will be a rationalisation:

    guess the snowy winter in the US has been lasting longer that the CAGW crowd expected, cos this story, which surfaced in January, is being re-run on AOL, NPR & elsewhere:

    8 March: NPR: Michaeleen Doucleff: Why China’s Pollution Could Be Behind Our Cold, Snowy Winters
    It’s March. It’s freezing. And there’s half a foot of snow on the ground. When is this winter going to end?
    Many scientists think that climate change might be one cause of this year’s “snowpocalypse” in Boston and bitter cold snaps in New York and Washington.
    But physicists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory have been looking into another culprit: air pollution in China and India…
    “Over the past 30 years or so, man-made emission centers have shifted from traditional industrialized countries to fast, developing countries in Asia,” physicist Jonathan Jiang writes in an email…
    ***The animation from NASA shows how pollution from Asia and other continents mixes and moves around the world. (It’s a simulation made with satellite data from September 2006 to April 2007.)…
    So what does a bunch of extra pollution from Asia do to clouds over the Pacific? It makes them bigger and heavier with more precipitation, Jiang and his colleagues reported last year…
    Jiang isn’t sure yet how much the bigger storms in the Pacific are to blame for cold, wet winters on the East Coast and drought in the West. His research team is working on models and computer simulations right now to look at such questions. “We have not reached a final conclusion yet,” he writes…
    http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandsoda/2015/03/08/391056439/why-chinas-pollution-could-be-behind-our-cold-snowy-winters

    same simulation above as below:

    30 Jan: MotherJones: James West: How China’s Filthy Air Is Screwing With Our Weather
    Toxic smog billowing from China’s coal-fired power plants is making snowstorms in the US worse.
    Mashable reported that all of New York City’s top 10 snowfalls have occurred in the past 15 years. Scientists can trace the cause to the enormous amount of energy we’re pumping into the oceans. Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, told Wired this week that “the oceans are warmer, and the air above them is more moist”—giving storms more energy to unleash more precipitation. In short, the blizzard dubbed Juno was being fueled in part by the ocean’s excess of climate change-related heat…
    Over the past few years, a team at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the California Institute of Technology has found that aerosols—or airborne particles—emitted from the cities fueling Asia’s booming economies are making storm activity stronger in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. These storms wreak havoc on the polar jet stream, a major driver of North America’s weather. The result: US winters with heavier snowfall and more intense cold periods…
    ***The NASA animation above shows how these aerosol emissions moved around the world, from September 1, 2006, to April 10, 2007. I’ve included two versions of it…
    http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2015/01/pollution-china-winter-weather-america-smog

    51

  • #
    pat

    btw -

    NYT did it in Feb:

    China’s Air Pollution Brings Snowfall to Sierra Nevada – The …
    http://www.nytimes.com/…/chinas-air-pollution-brings-snowfall-to-sierra-neva...
    Feb 17, 2012

    while LA Times had similar in Jan, without the simulation:

    ‘Snowiest decade’ in a half century? Not exactly, scientists say
    “If you wanted to say that there’s no global warming, then, yeah, look at December, January and February,” said Kevin Trenberth, a distinguished senior scientist in the climate analysis section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. “But as soon as you look at March, April, May and June, you have a very different picture.”…
    Wolter said there may be an added complication to the reasons behind spring snow decline.
    At a workshop he attended last week, the impact of air pollution, particularly from China, was brought up. He said the question of whether the effect of pollution filtering the sun’s rays is a factor in snow decline is unresolved. His research found that the links sometimes drawn between climate change and extreme events are “feeble.”
    “There’s still a lot of things to be studied,” he said.
    Trenberth doesn’t disagree…
    http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-82663679/

    meanwhile, in the real world, more absolutely stunning pics:

    10 March: Daily Mail: Ben Ashford: EXCLUSIVE: If you thought your winter was tough, try living on Plum Island, where record snowfall has left basements flooded with sewage, people forced out of their homes – and wild coyotes roaming the streets
    Low-lying Massachusetts island has been battered by record snowfalls which have caused havoc for its residents
    Sewerage system has been overwhelmed, people have had to leave their homes and worst of all coyotes are foraging in packs
    One resident’s washing machine was flooded with raw sewage as the sewers backed up while others have gone weeks without running water
    Record snowfall has left snowbanks as high as houses and even when it begins to melt, it will be a slow process, officials say
    With planes skidding off runways, snowdrifts as tall as houses and subzero temperatures for weeks on end, the US has suffered one of the most brutal winters on record.
    Thousands of flights have been cancelled, highways and railways have been paralyzed by the cold and swaths of the northeast resemble a vast frozen tundra.
    But if you thought your winter was bad spare a thought for the people of Plum Island, a tiny barrier island off the coast of Massachusetts buried under nearly 10ft of snow.
    Its shivering residents have faced a daily battle to dig their homes free from mountains of ice while raw waste has spilled back into their homes because the sewers are frozen…
    The only road off the island is so exposed that drivers have had to form long convoys before being escorted across in ‘whiteout’ conditions by the National Guard…
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2983505/If-thought-winter-tough-try-living-Plum-Island-record-snowfall-left-basements-flooded-sewage-people-forced-homes-wild-coyotes-roaming-streets.html

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    A C Osborn

    Exactly as expected Lip Service only.

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    pat

    that swirling Chinese pollution affecting Italy too!

    10 March: UK Telegraph: The village that got eight feet of snow in one day
    Italian village has broken records after it received a dump of more than eight feet (2.56 metres) in 18 hours
    by Nick Squires in Rome
    It was the largest amount of snow to fall on the village, in the Molise region of central Italy, since 1956.
    “In Colorado, they had two metres of snow in 24 hours, but here it took just 16 hours for that amount to fall,” said Antonio Monaco, the mayor of the village, which has 1,400 inhabitants.
    “It was a spectacle that took our breath away. In some parts of the village the snow was like a long white wall,” he told Ansa, Italy’s national news agency.
    “It was tough but everybody pulled together and made sure that the old people who couldn’t leave their houses had the food and medicines that they needed.” …
    The snowstorm hit on March 5 and left some villages cut off from the outside world…
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11460906/The-village-that-got-eight-feet-of-snow-in-one-day.html

    say it isn’t so!

    5 March: Washington Times: Jennifer Harper: Inevitable: Al Gore lands on presidential radar following Hillary Clinton’s political woes
    Just call it Goretopia: While Hillary Rodham Clinton addresses multiple political challenges, the press continues to spiral off into speculation. Who is the Democratic standard bearer should she decide against running for president?
    In the last 24 hours, Al Gore has made the list. Now 66, the former vice president remains stubbornly active in global warming issues; he is, in fact, going to Iowa — but not for campaign reasons. He’s teaching a climate “leadership” workshop in Cedar Rapids. All that aside, there is momentum building here as Mrs. Clinton’s complications increase. More succinct are these headlines: “With Hillary imploding, could Al Gore ride to the rescue?” (HotAir); “As Hillary Clinton wallows in scandal, desperate eyes turn to — Al Gore?” (Examiner.com); Rush Limbaugh even warned his listeners that Mr. Gore could now be “the Democratic savior of 2016.”Yes, well. Mr. Gore has done many things since he left the White House. He’s been the climate alarmist for better or worse, a now and then media mogul, and lately, a music producer. He became a vegan. He’s been out of office longer than Jeb Bush, though he has remained in the public eye, authoring a new book and making multiple, cause-driven appearances. Yes, the hashtag #RunAlRun has now appeared on Twitter…
    “What if Hillary bows out?” asks Politico correspondent Bill Scher…
    Democratic consultant Chris Lapetina says the party is in a panic — “terrified of the idea of a Hillary-less race — and the vicious primary that might result.”
    And?
    “Lapetina believes pressure would build for a few really big names to enter, such as Al Gore,” Mr. Scher observes…
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/mar/5/inside-the-beltway-al-gore-on-presidential-radar/

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    Tim

    So, the old ‘Hide the Decline’ meme is still alive and well Down Under.

    Lest we forget Climategate:

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2011/11/23/climategate-2-0-new-e-mails-rock-the-global-warming-debate/2/

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    Political Junkie

    All it takes is one!

    It is easy to agree that the terms of reference lay a foundation for a whitewash. However, that outcome is not inevitable.

    If only ONE of the Forum participants is willing to confront the establishment with a solid case based on facts good things might happen.

    The Australian ‘skeptics’ should be making sure that none of the ‘experts’ can use ignorance as an excuse in the hopes that at least one of them will have the right combination of integrity and gonads to publicly promote demonstrable facts.

    A day per year is ridiculous but there is nothing to prevent the ‘experts’ from getting educated outside the proposed process.

    Of course all of this assumes that the ‘fix’ is not already in and that the ‘experts’ are subject to being swayed by science.

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      Graeme No.3

      Remember Sir Humphrey’s advice; never hold an enquiry until you’ve determined what the result will be.

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        tom0mason

        Or as he (Sir Humphrey Appleby) did say -

        “And to that end, I recommend that we set up an interdepartmental committee with fairly broad terms of reference so that at the end of the day we’ll be in the position to think through the various implications and arrive at a decision based on long-term considerations rather than rush prematurely into precipitate and possibly ill-conceived action which might well have unforeseen repercussions. ”

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        Leigh

        Exactly.
        And as long as Abbott and his government have a committed warmist/Alarmist as Hunt in charge.
        There simply will not be any serious investigation into the BOM’s worlds best practice of falsifying Australia’s historical temperature record.
        It was a whitewash when it was announced and has been comprehensively confirmed as whitewash.
        Another absolute waste of taxpayers money “donated” on my behalf to the global warming gravy train.
        So to the skeptics the BOM says bugger off and annoy somebody who cares because we are answerable to no one!

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          Barry

          The astounding thing is, Leigh, that I did a search of this page and yours was the only reference to where the blame properly lies for this farce: squarely at the feet of the cowardly Abbott government.

          After their botched, incompetent, non-conservative first 18 months in government, when on the one hand they kowtowed to the Left, letting them keep their snouts in the trough and continue to run the political agenda, and then on the other hand put the boot into all of the working families who voted for them, they lost their nerve and did what useless, cowardly conservative governments the world over do: they hunkered down and let the Left have a free reign to set the agenda, having adopted a policy of doing nothing and putting all their efforts into managing the polls through to the next election.

          But it may be much worse than that – much worse. Not only are they letting the Left run the show and not only have they chosen to do absolutely nothing to implement a conservative agenda, but as part of their poll management strategy have they also made a conscious decision to try to do a snow job on their conservative base? Take a look at a couple of the topics on Andrew Bolt’s blog today (Wednesday 11th).

          First, there is the story entitled Our UN judges held no trial, tested no evidence, in which Abbott is quoted as saying:

          I really think Australians are sick of being lectured to by the United Nations, particularly given that we have stopped the boats and by stopping the boats, we have ended the deaths at sea.

          Wow, makes you feel good, doesn’t it? That’ll sock it to those commies at the UN. But think again. Has the Abbott government renounced ratification of the outdated refugee convention, and other conventions such as the one on the rights of the child, so that they can’t be used by leftists in this country as a pretext for letting undesirables stay here? No, they haven’t. These treaties serve no purpose other than that of being a means by which the Left can circumvent the elected parliament. Noble as the objects of these treaties might appear, the fact is they are nothing more than political weapons that are being used against us. A genuine conservative government would renounce them, but what has the Abbott government done … talked and put on a show.

          Then there is the post entitled The real racists claim that Aborigines cannot make choices. I’m not going to say too much about this, because, after all, this is a socialist country and we can be arbitrarily dealt with by the ‘justice’ system for the opinions we express. We have all heard stories about some remote communities and we know that these matters arise because of the very nature of life on a remote community. We know what the issues are, we know what causes them and we know the solution to the issues. But we also know that there are all sorts of other issues in play to do with land tenure, mining and development generally. We know that the Left are very active in this area and we know that they have no compunction about exploiting people for political ends. Enough said.

          Abbott must know what we all know – he cannot not know it – yet again all we have is a headline grabber. So you have to ask if this is a deliberate tactic of the ‘rebooted’ government – antagonise the Left, who predictably went absolutely mental (not hard to do at all!), but do nothing ‘courageous’ (to borrow Sir Humphrey’s term) and hope that your own troops are gullible enough to think you’ve won one for the Gipper.

          10

          • #
            Leigh

            Barry, while I thoroughly agree with all the points raised by you.
            Do you really think an all encompassing lengthy political rant into the Abbott governments lack of ticker fits here?
            Like it or not, the coalition is looking to the next election.
            Abbott being a confessed skeptic and the best hope we skeptics have.
            Of ending what to me and many others, can only be described politely as a “hijacking” of science.
            The two alternatives in Shorten and Turnbul is simply frightening.

            00

            • #
              Barry

              Leigh, the Liberals have wimped out on public service cuts, the AHRC, the ARC, the national curriculum, the ABC, SBS, free speech, immigration, international law, electoral reform and lots of other things that just don’t come to mind immediately.

              You have to ask if it is now Liberal policy to do nothing ‘courageous’ and instead just hunker down and play politics to manage the polls and get re-elected. It will mean that yet again we have a conservative government that does absolutely nothing to reform our society, as was the case with the Howard government and the embarrassing Fraser government before that. When the Left get in straight away they put the boot into us and go about changing our society. There is no push back and none of their changes are rolled back by subsequent Liberal administrations. If you vote just for the side and not for the cause not only are the Left laughing at you but the Liberals are too.

              I’m voting Labor in the upcoming NSW election as I figure we might as well ‘destroy the joint’ until we get a conservative government that has the balls to be a conservative government (pardon my French).

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  • #
    tonyM

    Perhaps we should get the Treasurer’s help by suggesting huge cuts to save $multi-millions by adopting complete homogenization of data.

    We only need about five recording stations to cover the whole of Australia. Somewhere in mid NSW would cover Vic, SA, Tas and up to Brisbane. Another closer to Kalgoorlie and a few interspersed further north. All this sufficient to conform to the claims that station T is just dandy within 1200kms.

    How is that for an efficiency dividend, Mr Hockey? No doubt BOM have thought about it too.

    Meanwhile I find it hard to reconcile how Perth T is ever measured reasonably. On Jan 5, 2015 the T for Perth city and Swanbourne, less than 10km away, varied by 10C even though they had reached similar highs ( 43C vs 42C respectively). At 7.30pm there was still a 7C difference.

    Yet they maintain through peer review that T substitution is fine within 1200kms.

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    Ruairi

    If scientists only confide,
    In those already on-side,
    At a one-day-event,
    Without any dissent,
    You would think they had something to hide.

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    Ted O'Brien.

    We used to live 170 km direct from the coast in eastern NSW. The Great Dividing Range immediately to the west of us was only about 2,000 ft and less.

    In summer it was usual for the afternoon sea breeze to get that far inland, we rarely had hot nights like people further inland did. These easterlies also brought us coastal smog.

    I later discovered that these easterlies and their smog extended to an altitude of about 5,000 ft.

    I recall one day when there was a big bushfire about 50 km to the east of us that when the easterly arrived, the first puff of wind had the smell of the smoke from that fire on it. Which amazed me.

    That fire was big enough to generate circulation of its own. But I still couldn’t understand how the smoke got to be the leader in the wind change 50 km downwind. The easterly must have been displacing the air upwards, not forward, but that still doesn’t give a full explanation.

    20

  • #
    Dennis

    Extract from the latest Piers Akerman article at Daily Telegraph;

    Australian Electoral Commission records released last month showed donations by CFMEU divisions to federal and state ALP branches were estimated at about $1.2 million.
    The Greens $360,000 from the Electrical Trades Union and $125,000 from the CFMEU’s construction division.
    That would explain why Labor and the Greens last week voted down government legislation in the Senate which would have made union officials abide by the same rules which apply to company officials.
    Labor has a track record in Victoria, Queensland and federally. It should not be allowed to welcome its thuggish friends back into NSW.

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    • #
      Dennis

      In a book written in the 1990s (title I forget) former senior Treasury executive Dr.Des Moore outlined how when in government at federal and state levels Labor grant/gift large amounts of taxpayer’s monies to the Union Movement member unions, he referred to the practise as laundering taxpayer’s monies via grants which are returned to the ALP as donations and/or used to pay for electioneering advertising and propaganda campaigns. The example he gave was the period 1983 to 1996 when the federal Labor Government arranged grants amounting in total to close to $100 million to unions.

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    TdeF

    What forum? Of course the BOM concept of a forum is a once a year presentation by the BOM lauding their virtues and followed by drinks and chats. A meet and greet at best. Colour and movement. Perhaps with music.

    This is no expose, no investigation, no explanation. Nothing more than a close ranks and coverup.
    Risible. Absurd. Life of Brian stuff. In fact they would not even try this silly shirtfront in Yes Minister. Sir Humphrey would form a committee headed by some credible friend and report back that in fact nothing was wrong and that the BOM was doing a fantastic job, homogenizing beautiful and urgently needed more funding for new high power homogenizers from the IPCC.

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    • #
      TdeF

      Whitewash. Fake. PR exercise. I was looking for a single word. Fantasy. Affront. Insult. Joke. Feel free to use them all.

      91

      • #
        Tim

        IMHO this deserves an investigation equal to the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse. Not a PR tea party afternoon.

        21

  • #
    DoubtingDave

    So in effect the BOM bomb has been disarmed at least until after Paris. Will the “minutes” of the panels discussion with the BOM scientists be made available to the aussie puplic ? if so at least you may get a peak behind the BOM curtain and then you have a year to comunicate with the panel members and voice your concerns.

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  • #
    Ken Stewart

    Who decided the terms of reference? Who decided the timing and format?

    I am disgusted. I spent countless weeks looking at Acorn and comparing it with raw and AWAP data. I spent many days putting together my submission. They would need several days just to investigate my points let alone those of others. There will be no investigation obviously.

    This is indeed a cover up before it has even begun. We can’t let this happen, we have to push hard at this. Write to Greg Hunt, your local MP and Senators, papers, everyone. They can’t get away with this.

    Ken

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    • #
      pattoh

      Ken

      Do you reckon there may be enough people out there to get funding for legal advice or even action by writ of mandamus? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandamus)

      If the government stands up in paqrliament & instigates a body to investigate the actions of a publically funded institution there should be an investigation.

      IMHO, the future of the economy & the soveriegnty of the people is being wrecked & abused.

      Political window dressing & propaganda token efforts just do not cut it!

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    • #
      Bob Fernley-Jones

      Ken,

      The so-called terms of reference per Document Properties were authored by Dr Leah McKenzie of the Department of Environment on 5/Mar/2015. They are unsigned and without letterhead and evidently a DRAFT.

      regards Bob_FJ

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      • #

        Hey Bob

        I spoke with Sam in Bob Baldwin’s office yesterday. He said that the Terms of Reference and format were as detailed in the above mentioned document.

        He also indicated that he thought this constituted a more than adequate process for verifying that the BOM are doing the right thing. And that there was no need to justify anything to people like us.

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        • #
          ianl8888


          And that there was no need to justify anything to people like us

          And there indeed is the key, hiding – not – in plain view

          These people are unaccountable and will remain so

          I’ve had a number of real experiences with this, including a particularly horrific industrial catastrophe where an entire crew of men died very nastily because the overseeing Dept had earlier arbitrarily and demonstrably stuffed up key statutory maps. The then Head of the Dept (Chief Inspector) stated in Court that his predecessor(s) had carelessly caused this. For his pains of honesty in public, he was removed from his position – but the presiding Judge in Court deliberately sought and found a legal “out” for the Dept. The various management levels of the crew, those who had relied statutorily on savagely inaccurate Dept’l information, were prosecuted

          Don Quixote I am not

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          Just-A-Guy

          . . . to people like us.

          Is Sam refering to those people whose hard earned tax monies are paying his and their (Department of Environment, Technical Advisory Forum, The Australian BoM, etc.) salaries? Just sayin’. ;)

          Abe

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            Just-A-Guy

            It seems that we have all forgotten that we pay for these and every other service provided by our governments. Regardless of whatever country any of us may reside in, we pay, they play. If they don’t play by our rules, then they can go home. That’s what elections are for.

            It’s called a service, not because the govt decides to be nice or generous, but because we pay them to serve us.* We pay them to provide these services to all of us, not just to themselves or those few to whom they decide are worthy. Isn’t it about time we started reminding them of this basic principle of freedom that forms the foundation of democratic rule.

            Abe

            *It doesn’t matter if you break your back on a farm or rack your brains in an office. Each one of us does their part.

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            • #
              Manfred

              What a novel concept.
              Might be worth flicking an email about it to Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and her colleagues at the UNEP.

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        • #
          Lawrie Ayres

          Jennifer,

          Thanks once again for your efforts.

          I believe if we want to achieve anything of value we have to write to as many parliamentarians as we can and use our own representatives in the house and Senate to ask questions. Your local rep has a duty to pass on your letters to the minister (Bob Baldwin) and demand a response. Letters to the editor reach a wide readership and can be embarrassing to members especially around election time. I was involved with a relatively small campaign concerning the rights of commercial fishermen and a local state member was so upset the minister decided her plan was unworkable. Blogs are a good way to organise a campaign but letters and emails will get results; positive and negative.

          I see the Australian has shown the Queensland flood enquiry to be flawed and effectively a cover up. Supporting Graham Lloyd and his efforts is invaluable in pushing the BoM to answer our questions.

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    • #
      tom0mason

      Ken,
      I’m sure your much appreciated hard work will win the day in the end.
      Unfortunately this is not the end, or a Churchill put it –

      Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

      After Paris could be the start of the ‘beginning of the end’ if we are lucky, and the politicians begin to think what is best for their country and the electorate. Well that’s my hope.

      21

    • #
      Andrew McRae

      Is the situation already that bad, Ken?

      Forum pre-reading will be made available to members a fortnight prior to meeting.

      That means if your arguments have been sent to them already then it is possible that will be included in the “pre-reading” that they may spend up to 9 days mulling over.

      The forum is to examine and provide comment on: [...]
      3. The scientific integrity and robustness of the Australian climate record and the
      homogenisation process including:
      Compared to raw (unadjusted) data, how does homogenisation affect the overall
      climate trend for Australia?

      That’s the main question we all wanted answered, wasn’t it?

      Sure it could be intended as a whitewash, but how do we know today, before the forum has happened, that it is fixed?
      Or to ask the opposite question, what other rules would they have to follow to ensure the outcome is acceptable?

      20

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    TedM

    A court case that hears only testimony from the defence, and defendant. A wonderful system of justice if you are the defendant, and guilty.

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  • #
  • #
    KinkyKeith

    One of the first and most important tasks for any inquiry is to make certain that the original records, as in the hand written logs books for each site, are still held safely.

    If they are not then somebody’s head should be brought to the block.

    To destroy original notes and data is scientific sacrilege.

    KK

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  • #
    Mikky

    You don’t need a Forum Panel to establish the main problem with ACORN-SAT, which is that it fails to provide justifications for its results, which all come down to very simple statements: this data, between these dates, is either too small or too big, which is very easy to demonstrate (or not) using nothing more than GRAPHS-101.

    The principle of temperature homogenisation is well established, no panel of independent statisticians is going to challenge it. But there can be (and probably are) errors in some of the results. A panel worth its salt would ask to see all the justifications, and do some spot checks. If a full set of justifications is not provided then the panel must conclude that ACORN-SAT is still at draft level and should not be used for formulating policy.

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    • #

      Mikky

      The principle of homogenisation itself needs scrutiny; particularly the method as applied by the BOM. Never mind that it is all justified in the peer-reviwed literature. It has become, at heart, a postmodernist form of virtual science.

      For some insights into an alternative perspective I suggest you read David Stockwell’s submission to the panel which can be accessed here… http://jennifermarohasy.com/temperatures/submissions-to-the-panel/

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      • #
        tom0mason

        Indeed, for if homogenization is such an improvement in science it makes you wonder why it was not used more before and more widely used now. Medicine would leap forward if this method was used!

        Or space science…

        There are many scientist that are sure they know how the universe was formed and proceeds. Surely if these very able scientist got together and made a nice computer model of the universe and had it conform to all the known laws of physics then all NASA’s Hubble telescope would have to do is confirm this model. Thus by infilling missing data areas, adjusting old data, and homogenizing Hubble’s current data output we could get a much better view of the universe. All with the heart warming conformation of it fitting with our preconceived ideas.
        What could possibly be wrong with that?

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    • #
      Just-A-Guy

      Mikky,

      The principle of temperature homogenisation is well established, no panel of independent statisticians is going to challenge it.

      Jennifer Marohasy,

      The principle of homogenisation itself needs scrutiny; particularly the method as applied by the BOM. Never mind that it is all justified in the peer-revi[e]wed literature. It has become, at heart, a postmodernist form of virtual science.

      The Hon Bob Baldwin – MEDIA RELEASE – 19 January 2015

      The Bureau’s climate information services were subject to a rigorous independent peer-review in 2011. The Review was conducted by a panel of international experts and found the Bureau’s data and analysis methods met world’s best practice.

      The concept that . . .

      ‘Because homogenization is established by peer review and a rigorous examination of homogenization procedures supports their continued use because they conform to world’s best practice.’

      . . . is misleading on two counts.

      First: A rigorous examination only tells us how well this examination was done. It does not tell us what the goal of the examination was. If the goal was to see if it conforms to world’s best practice then we need to further examine if world’s best practice is the proper way to address the problem. Just because ‘the world’ does something in some agreed upon way does not mean that this way is the best way.

      The use of the terms rigorous and robust are just a form of doublespeak employed by all of the proponents of AGW and ‘climate change’, (IPCC definition). These terms give the impression that some task was the appropriate task, when in fact they only describe how well the task was performed.

      These words describe fitness to task not purpose of task.

      Second: The IPCC has defined what homogenization is, how it should be performed, and and when it should be applied based on what they, the IPCC, have agreed is world’s best practice. Their Guide to Climatological Practices describes this in chapter 5. They base these conclusions on those peer reviewed papers that they have decided amongst themselves are authoritative sources. If the IPCC doesn’t approve of some research paper, then it doesn’t matter if that document is peer reviewed or not, it’s simply not part of the concensus view and ceases to have relevence. By the wave of a hand. And so, . . .

      . . . once again, and for the umpteenth time, we have an argument from authority.

      What is needed is a comprehensive examination of the homogenization process to see if the process itself solves the problems it was designed to address. On this point Ms. Marohasy is right on the target.

      Abe

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      Just-A-Guy

      Sorry.

      On this point Ms. Marohasy is right on the target.

      She’s not on the target. Obviously.

      Abe

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        tom0mason

        Indeed, as Jennifer is far too valuable to be lost to ‘friendly fire’ or a stray round.

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        • #
          shortie of greenbank

          She would be safe if the warmists were firing though. ‘Modelled’ attacks haven’t hit a target yet it seems. ;)

          10

  • #
    el gordo

    Scaper contact Hunt, tell him its in his own interest to fix this problem. Otherwise I’ll have to assume he’s a complete and utter dill who thinks sceptics should be ignored and CO2 causes gorebull worming.

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      scaper...

      Not sure if Greg is the correct avenue at this point as he has delegated. Who is this Bob Baldwin? I reckon I’ll make a few calls to ascertain his character.

      Interested in this Sam who seemed to be pretty rude to Jen when she called. Not on in my opinion so I’ll make a mention of the incident when I next contact.

      Most probably this weekend.

      72

      • #
        el gordo

        Baldwin is a dark horse, but I suspect he is taking directions from Hunt.

        I think we have been stitched up and they are planning a whitewash. Admittedly its a long shot but I suspect that when Turnbull, Morrison and Hunt were spotted at a restaurant on the Kingston foreshore they were talking about the weather.

        You will remember Turnbull and Hunt were united on the emissions trading scam a few years ago. Morrison is future PM material and needed to be there.

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          scaper...

          Neither supports an ETS now. Their view would change if a global scheme was launched though. Don’t see much chance of that.

          On another note…they do support northern development. The white paper will be released in around three months time. The subject of AGW never comes up because that is not the focus. I’ve made it no secret that I’m sceptical of the science.

          20

          • #
            el gordo

            Thanks scaper, all good stuff.

            I look forward to the white paper on northern development, it should give the government a well deserved jump in the polls.

            00

  • #
    Owen Morgan

    In no respect whatever does this “Technical Advisory Forum” match any definition of what a “forum” actually is. It’s as if someone responsible thinks “1984” is a dictionary.

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    Ross

    O/T but Dr Mann seems to have lost a lot of friends when it counts. NO organisation is fronting up with support in the court case with Steyn.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/03/10/the-drawn-out-mann-lawsuit-science-is-not-taking-a-stand-for-michael-mann/

    Maybe BOM are worried as well that if this situation got more public or transparent they wouldn’t get much support as well. Either way it definitely looks like a poorly organised cover up. On the upside because it is so poorly organised (ie. very rushed and “behind closed doors”) it will be easy to make a mockery of it, if nothing changes to the schedule and setup.

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    handjive

    Even Though Warming Has Stopped, it Keeps Getting Worse?

    Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.:

    “I was updating a U.S. Corn Belt summer temperature and precipitation dataset from the NCDC website, and all of a sudden the no-warming-trend-since-1900 turned into a significant warming trend.”

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    pat

    handjive -
    i think this references Roy Spencer’s piece:

    10 March: Paul Homewood: The Past Keeps Getting Cooler
    h/t Eliza
    Roy Spencer has spotted another example of how the past keeps getting miraculously cooler…
    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/03/10/the-past-keeps-getting-cooler/

    worth noting:

    9 March: NoTricksZone: Spiegel Demolishes Syria War-Climate Change Paper By Kelley et al. …”Hardly Tenable” … “Distraction From Real Problems”
    By P Gosselin
    http://notrickszone.com/2015/03/09/spiegel-demolishes-syria-war-climate-change-paper-by-kelley-et-al-hardly-tenable-distraction-from-real-problems/#sthash.RAhpmR7z.dpbs

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    RB

    The Pell comment is offensive. He is the one who worked hard to change the culture of sweeping it under the carpet of the previous Archbishop of Melbourne starting in 1996. He did talk about the crimes of priests at sermons before the Royal Commission or is Ms Marohasy suggesting he committed such a crime?

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    • #
      Bob in Castlemaine

      Pell was maybe not the best example to choose. Despite the vilification campaign by the likes of ABC and Fairfax, George Pell to my knowledge has never been implicated in any criminal cover-up of the dark deeds of some amongst the priesthood.
      Not only that but Pell is known to hold rational views when it comes to CAGW and may perhaps be in a position to inject a bit of reason into the conversation when it comes to the obvious “climate change” activism of the current socialist Pope Francis.

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      Gary in Erko

      The Pell analogy – It’s not a good rhetorical idea to use another currently contentious issue as a comparison or similarity. It creates a distraction and overlays an unrelated division onto the target issue.

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      Revenant

      Yes, nothing like a dose of good old-fashioned 1930s anti-Catholic bigotry to bolster your argument, is there Jennifer? Pell has been a target of the left for many years because of his staunch and patently sincere social conservatism. To which views, I might add, he has a perfect right, as have others who think differently. Your “analogy” was not funny, it was icky.

      Pell is actually a climate change skeptic, in contrast to the majority of do-gooder Western clerics who have bought into the ‘stewardship of the Earth’ furphy hook, line and sinker. How about accepting support for your BoM campaign from all and sundry, instead of picking and choosing on the basis of totally unrelated issues? That would hardly be scientifically objective, would it?

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    pat

    11 March: ABC: Tropical Cyclone Nathan forms off Queensland coast
    The Bureau of Meteorology says a Tropical Cyclone has formed off the far north Queensland coast and predicts the formation of another off Western Australia’s north-west coast later this week.
    The category one system is currently about 435 kilometre north-east of Cooktown in Queensland and is expected to become a category two by Wednesday morning.
    The weather bureau said the system was moving south-west at 12 kilometres per hour.
    Forecaster Jess Carey said the system was likely to generate a lot of rainfall and wind, but unlikely to make landfall….
    Disaster authorities in far north Queensland said they were well prepared for a potential cyclone…
    A cyclone watch has been issued for communities from Coen to Cape Tribulation…
    Meanwhile, the bureau said it was likely a tropical low brewing off Western Australia would develop into a category one cyclone between Wednesday night and Thursday morning, and eventually intensify into a category two system.
    It is forecast to bypass the Kimberley and impact upon the West Pilbara, Exmouth and Gascoyne regions.
    The tropical low is currently stirring up waters about 760 kilometres north of Karratha.
    Bureau spokesman Brad Santos said the system could be the first to threaten the West Australian coast this cyclone season.
    “It’s been a remarkably quiet season,” he said.
    “There have been a couple of tropical lows which have threatened the coast and moved inland and caused heavy rain and flooding, but we are yet to see a tropical cyclone develop off the north-west coast of WA.”…
    ***Related Story: Potentially massive cyclone brewing in Pacific: meteorologists
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-10/cyclones-expected-to-form-off-wa-and-queensland/6292616

    ***linked to the potential “massive cyclone” story, but there’s no mention of “massive” in the headline or the text in this updated piece.

    10 March: ABC: Tropical depression expected to intensify into strong cyclone as it nears Fiji, meteorologists say
    Updated Mon at 6:54pm
    Meteorologist Neville Koop told Radio Australia’s Pacific Beat that Fijians should begin preparing for what could potentially be a powerful cyclone.
    “A tropical depression currently going by the name of 11F is just off the islands in the very far east of Solomon Islands, it is very slow moving but it has been intensifying,” he said…
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-09/tropical-depression-brews-off-vanuatu/6291896

    perhaps someone can access this piece, which is behind a paywall:

    Australia has a plan to adapt to warming
    The Australian-11 hours ago
    We have world-class institutions in the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology whose personnel, modelling, forecasting and early warning capabilities are …

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      Graeme No.3

      pat:
      re Ziggy Switkowski’s article in the Australian – I logged in intending to make a comment but no need. Every comment on view was critical, and the Public Relations Manager at the BoM is probably having a stiff drink or two for lunch.

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    Gary in Erko

    An annual forum isn’t a cause for worry. They’ll meet and decide on a list of questions to submit the following year. The year after they can read the responses, and next year decide on whether clarification is needed. Whatever they do won’t effect the weather, and we’re told climate is a thirty year thingumybob so a five year process for a couple of questions is ok. They might ask, for instance, deeply probing questions such as – are the records in black or blue ink and whether biro pens were permitted around the same decade when schools started to allow them. And did the map colouring department stay within the outlines.

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    pat

    Graeme No.3 -
    thanx. but i don’t know what the article is about at all. i’ve only seen the short summary in the results.

    the following is in a number of APN regional newspapers:

    9 March: SunshineCoastDaily: Owen Jacques: Cyclone Nathan now a Category Two, expected to u-turn
    Current modelling predicts Cyclone Nathan will not make landfall, but will turn around before reaching the coastline…
    More than 200mm of rain has already fallen in the past 12 hours around the Innisfail region, which would have caused flash flooding if it landed in a more heavily populated area like Cairns…
    The Bureau of Meteorology is warning that all cyclones are fickle and their paths are subject to change.
    Its latest tracking map (below) shows a “grey cone of uncertainty” which highlights where the cyclone could go, even if the chances are very low…
    The BOM predicts that if it does not follow its most likely course — involving a u-turn — there is still a low chance it could make landfall somewhere between Coen and Cape Tribulation…
    Mr Carey referred to the BOM’s predictions about Cyclone Marcia, which was not expected to strengthen beyond a Category Two but later intensified to a Category Five before striking Central Queensland in mid-February.
    “We wouldn’t be expecting anything like that again,” he said.
    “It should be used as a warning curve — this sort of development can occur.” …
    If the cyclone does follow its expected path, Mr Carey said there may be no impact to the Queensland coast at all…
    (NEAR END OF ARTICLE) BOM boffins do not believe Nathan would head south towards Queensland’s more heavily-populated regions…
    He emphasised that cyclone movements were always difficult to predict.
    (CHECK THE COMMENTS)
    http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/queensland-may-face-cyclone-nathan-low-looms-large/2567546/

    updated at Rocky newspaper, have tried to excerpt just the updates:

    Rockhampton Morning Bulletin: Own Jacques: Cyclone Nathan now a Category Two, expected to u-turn
    Updated: 11th Mar 2015 11:31 AM
    FAR north Queensland is being drenched by the rains of Cyclone Nathan as it edges its way closer to the coastline…
    At 10am, Nathan was deemed a Category Two cyclone, after first earning cyclone status at 10pm Tuesday.
    By mid-morning Thursday, Nathan is expected to strengthen into a Category Three…
    As it reaches Category Three intensity, Nathan is predicted to make a hard right turn, and begin heading east back out to sea…
    (SAME COMMENTS AS AT FIRST LINK)
    http://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/news/queensland-may-face-cyclone-nathan-low-looms-large/2567546/

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      Graeme No.3

      Pat, not sure if this is what you missed. Indeed it is worth missing.
      Australia has a plan to adapt to warming ZIGGY SWITKOWSKI THE AUSTRALIAN MARCH 11, 2015

      CLIMATE scientists from the British Met Office have looked at the flatlining of global surface ­temperatures for the past 17 years and published the outcomes of their probabilistic modelling in Nature last month. US scientists published similar findings at the same time in Science.

      The reliability of climate models has been called into question as the steady accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — growing at 2ppm annually and now reaching 400ppm carbon ­dioxide — has not caused in­creases in global average temperatures at the same time.

      The mainstream assumption is that the Earth is on a path to at least 2 degrees warming during this century. Against this trend, the Met Office scientists calculated, in the absence of external forces, the probability of a 10-year period of no significant increase to be 10 per cent, and 1 per cent for a 20-year interval, but that the current long-term global warming trend is unique and real.

      So, natural internal variability, where random ripples inside the climate system cancel each other, can perhaps account for a 17-year stretch of no warming, albeit with very low probability. Therefore, climate scientists insist such outcomes do not invalidate their models because the measured temperature trends are statistically explainable.

      Some may not find this explanation very satisfying even if mathematically correct. While the physics of global warming is well understood, the long-term consequences for climate of such warming and other forces are not as well determined. The science of ­climate change is very complex with key details unresolved, and arguments about climate forecasts will continue and justly so.

      It is perhaps against this background that the Intergenerational Report did not headline climate change as a key variable for our 40-year national planning.

      The report did note that our continent had warmed by 0.8 degrees during the past century and exhibited the many stresses of a warmer ­climate such as the effects of drought on agriculture and our water resources and the incidence of extreme weather events.

      Still, Australia directly contributes less than 1.4 per cent of total global greenhouse gas emissions and even the most aggressive ­attacks on domestic carbon emissions proposed by either major political party cannot make a measurable impact on the global ­climate or our weather, and hence on our generational outlook.

      Of course, our national climate strategy and associated actions can positively contribute to a ­sensible global accord especially when Australia focuses its res­ources and leverages its international credentials, but the geopolitics of climate change presumably fall outside the remit of the Intergenerational Report.

      Plus, this work is updated every five years when more data and better models can inform the next report. In any contest between good public policy and urgent intuitive action, I’d vote for the former especially, when the interval between policy decisions is short (for example, an election cycle) compared with the time constant of the issue being addressed.

      In the meantime, the effects of a long-term warming trend are ­unambiguous. Even as global ­temperatures stabilise, they do so at record high levels not seen in the past 400 years. Given thermal ­inertia, oceans continue to warm and become more acidic from absorbed CO2, glaciers melt and recede, sea levels rise and storm surges damage coastlines, corals bleach, soils degrade, deserts expand, and extreme weather events punctuate our lives.

      But, away from the headlines and the global climate debate where Australia is a junior player (China, the US, EU, India, Russia, Japan and Brazil matter for setting international rules), Australians and our three levels of government are taking steps to adapt to this warmer, more volatile climate. Here are some of the themes.

      We have world-class institutions in the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology whose personnel, modelling, forecasting and early warning capabilities are national assets and should be supported as we plan for extreme weather events and natural disasters.

      Our emergency services and crisis management processes, including communications, have improved with better technology, training, community engagement and public education. Property and personnel are better protected. More care is being taken in ­zoning vulnerable areas for industrial development or housing, and in some cases sea walls are being planned to preserve prized coastlines. Building codes have been strengthened to ensure resilience against cyclones, bushfires and earthquakes, and standards ­introduced to improve energy ­efficiency.

      As systems become available to price risk at the household level, people are being educated about the higher costs of insurance associated with living in risky areas or improperly constructed dwellings.

      Attention continues to focus on land and water management, our marine environment, and the opportunities for the food and tourism industries that sound environmental policies enable.

      These are proactive apolitical steps that didn’t wait for UN sanction or IPCC approval. But they suggest Australia may not only survive but thrive through this extended warming period.

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    Joanne,
    Why is your blog always in favor of some agreement, rather than individual rage. Just what is your blog trying to promote? Staying away from large effilumps to not get stomped, is acceptable, However shooting effilumps, to not get stomped, is not acceptable! :)
    The whole nature of effilumps is to stomp, perhaps not the kiddy effilumps!

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    pat

    10 March: Think Progress: Joe Romm: Rate Of Climate Change To Soar By 2020s, With Arctic Warming 1°F Per Decade
    New ***research (LINK) from a major national lab projects that the rate of climate change, which has risen sharply in recent decades, will soar by the 2020s…
    The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) study, “Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change,” finds that by 2020, human-caused warming will move the Earth’s climate system “into a regime in terms of multi-decadal rates of change that are unprecedented for at least the past 1,000 years.”…
    The new study makes clear that the only “pause” there has been was in the long-expected acceleration of warming. That is, while the rate of global warming has been roughly constant for the last few decades, it should have started to speed up (see chart below). But multiple studies, include this latest one, say that we should expect a speed up very soon…
    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/10/3631632/climate-change-rate/

    (***FROM THE RESEARCH AT THE LINK PROVIDED: In this study, interdisciplinary scientist Steve Smith and colleagues at the Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory examined historical and projected changes over decades rather than centuries to determine the temperature trends that will be felt by humans alive today…
    To examine rates of change, Smith and colleagues at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a collaboration between PNNL and the University of Maryland in College Park, turned to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The CMIP combines simulations from over two-dozen climate models from around the world to compare model results.
    All the CMIP models used the same data for past and future greenhouse gas concentrations, pollutant emissions, and changes to how land is used, which can emit or take in greenhouse gases. The more models in agreement, the more confidence in the results…
    Taken together, the shorter time period simulations were similar to the reconstructions over a longer time period, suggesting the models reflected reality well…
    Still, the researchers can’t say exactly what impact faster rising temperatures will have on the Earth and its inhabitants.
    “In these climate model simulations, the world is just now starting to enter into a new place, where rates of temperature change are consistently larger than historical values over 40-year time spans,” said Smith. “We need to better understand what the effects of this will be and how to prepare for them.”
    This work was supported by the Department of Energy Office of Science)

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      tom0mason

      Joe Romm: Rate Of Climate Change To Soar By 2020s…

      Yep, the CMIP combines simulations from over two-dozen climate models from around the world to compare a modeled world of adjusted, homogenized temperatures, some loose approximations for real weather effects, and came up with the required answer.
      I wonder how they managed that?

      I also note that the period for climate to be assessed is getting shorter here, down from the UN-IPCC’s 30 years (IMO too short anyway) to just 5 to 10 years.
      Is 5 to 10 years period of climate change or just a bit of weather variability?

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    Peter C

    At 10am, Nathan was deemed a Category Two cyclone, after first earning cyclone status at 10pm Tuesday.
    By mid-morning Thursday, Nathan is expected to strengthen into a Category Three…

    When I checked this morning the North Queensland coast was being lashed by 60-70kph wind gusts (Cape Flattery). The highest gust I found was 100kph at Bouganville Reef 10pm last night

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      I am in Cairns at the moment.
      35 mm of rain last night and a further 5 mm this morning.
      Maximum wind gusts in Cairns about 25 kts for the past 24 hours..
      So where ever Cyclone Nathan might be, it’s a long way from Cairns at present.
      The cloud formations on radar are yet to show any circular patternI

      I sure hope the clown running the BOM at present was not the poor child who kept crying “wolf”.

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        2000 hrs in Cairns 11/03/15.
        45 mm rain since 0700 hrs.
        Winds this evening have been gusting to 35 kts.
        It may be the very late start to the NQ wet.

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          0930 Cairns 12/03/15
          55 mm rain overnight (cum total 135 mm)
          “Potentially destructive” winds are 5 to 10 kts, gusting to 15 kts.
          I am still looking for the wolf.

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            1000 hrs Cairns 13/03/15
            87 mm rain (cum220 mm).
            Gusts up to 35 kts early this morning. Currently gusting to 15 kts, rain easing.
            Back to brisbane.
            Didn’t find the wolf – maybe next time.

            ps At no time did the low form a complete circular pattern.
            It was more like a hockey stick shape (left handed and inverted.

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              I know that this will only ever be perceived as anecdotal, because the facts are now lost in the antiquities of time, but I feel sure that all this current beating up of Cyclones dates back seven or so years back from now, and the mainstream of media outlets has only just recently latched onto it.

              I used to live in the SE corner of Queensland, at Coomera. The vast majority of the really bad storms that struck that area would come from the South West of Brisbane and move North East to impact the Gold Coast and the Southern suburbs of Brisbane. Those storms would build up into sometimes pretty violent things even though localised in certain areas.

              I have a theory based around a number of years spent at RAAF Amberley, and the huge UHI effect of that vast area of concrete and blacktop, and first hand stories of long time residents of that area who said that monster (localised) electrical and hail storms were much more prevalent in the area after the base expanded considerably in the 60′s up to present day.

              Similar now, scrolling forwards to those present day storms coming in from the SW of Brisbane seven years back. They would build up considerably now with the UHI of the Gold Coast, and Brisbane, forcing the front upwards, hence monster hail and fierce localised storms in small tight areas.

              Residents affected then lobbied on two fronts, mainly associated with the lack of any warning, firstly from the BOM, and secondly from the Media, and see where this goes. There were class action suits aimed at mainly Government bodies, the BOM, and the ABC, for (a) the lack of any reports from the BOM, and (b) the lack of any reporting of the severity from the ABC.

              The upshot was that the BOM made a conscious decision to ALWAYS quote the worst case scenario, no matter what, and in that way, they could say that, well, you were warned. That then flowed through to the ABC who just also reported that worst case scenario every time, reading straight from the BOM run sheet.

              BOTH entities, BOM and ABC made the conscious decisions to always quote the worst case scenario based on opinions from both groups legal departments, in effect, covering their fundaments against any possible future lawsuits.

              It all stems from those legal department decisions, and now we have the case where every weather event is always quoted in the worst case scenario. They just read from the playsheet for models of whatever is the case.

              If it doesn’t eventuate, then well and good. However, if anything does happen, then no one can say that there was no information available.

              Cry wolf every time.

              It seems that the lawyers really have won.

              Tony.

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    pat

    read all:

    10 March: Examiner: Thomas Richard: Governor Scott says Florida did not ban the phrase ‘climate change’
    The Miami Herald published a story Sunday that Gov. Rick Scott had banned the use of phrases like global warming and climate change, based on statements by former employees. The only problem: it’s not true. At least according to Gov. Rick Scott…
    ***A search of the DEP’s website revealed hundreds of instances of the phrases “climate change” and “global warming,” and the accusations were made by former employees of DEP that were fired or laid off. Based on the reporting by the Florida Center for Investigative Reporting, which bills itself as a non-partisan investigative agency, the accusations appeared to be an orchestrated attempt by ex-employees to disgrace a sitting governor.
    The day after the Miami Herald article was published, “State Democrats emailed a fundraising pitch to supporters Monday noting Scott’s climate-change position. The email was titled, ‘Is he serious?’”…
    The Sunday Herald story was picked up and circulated widely by other newspapers, who reported the story verbatim, creating a bit of a firestorm for the Scott administration. On Monday, he set the record straight. He also told reporters of his administration’s ongoing environmental achievements…
    http://www.examiner.com/article/governor-scott-says-florida-did-not-ban-the-phrase-climate-change

    ***so has the MSM done their own checking, & retracted the allegations?

    this is, sadly, the best of a bad bunch – even AP couldn’t just do a search of the DEP & realise it’s a non-story!

    10 March: ABC (US): AP: Jason Dearen: Group Wants Probe of Whether Fla. Banned Climate-Change Talk
    Now, an environmental group is asking for a state investigation to get to the bottom of it.
    Florida members of the group Forecast the Facts filed a complaint on Tuesday with the Department of Environmental Protection’s inspector-general, asking for the investigative arm of the agency to find the truth…
    “Well, first off, that’s not true,” Scott told reporters in Tallahassee on Tuesday. “At our Department of Environmental Protection, there’s lots of conversation about this issue. From my standpoint, like every issue, my goal is: Instead of talking about it, let’s do something about it.”…
    ***While there was no written policy banning the terms, Byrd said supervisors made it clear verbally…
    ***Forecast the Facts Campaign Director Brant Olson said an investigation is needed to know who’s telling the truth: Was there a ban on using the terms or not?…
    ***Evidence suggests there hasn’t been a total blackout of the terms in state literature, but they can be hard to find.
    For example, the DEP’s website for the coral program still includes information about man-made climate change.
    “Both natural and anthropogenic (man-made) processes contribute to changes in global weather patterns such as temperature, rainfall, snowfall and wind,” the website reads.
    “These changes have been observed throughout Earth’s history, but with the onset of the industrial revolution and the human population explosion, increases in the intensity of climate changes associated with human activities have been reported with growing frequency.”
    That website was updated after Scott took office in November 2011…
    ***Jim Harper, a former DEP contractor who says a report he worked on had a reference to climate change expunged, is now the president of the South Florida chapter of the climate advocacy organization ***350.org…
    Harper said there was no hard ban at DEP, but workplace culture discouraged using terms that didn’t fall in line with the administration’s biases.
    “There’s a culture of silence. When people have lost their jobs, you learn to play by the rules,” Harper said.
    Jerry Phillips, a former DEP lawyer who now works for the ***Florida Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility, says reports of unofficial bans on language jibed with the agency’s culture even before Scott took office.
    Still, Phillips said, it is getting worse for employees, and he worries that DEP scientists are under pressure to release inaccurate information…
    http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/florida-gov-scott-denies-banning-phrase-climate-change-29526774

    10 March: WaPo: Chris Mooney: Florida officials’ ‘ban’ of the term climate change is straight out of the Bush playbook
    No wonder, then, that this story blew up in the media — with Scott administration officials denying the story’s accuracy to the Post’s Terence McCoy. Still, it seems clear from the original report that, at minimum, a number of agency employees ***perceived ***that they weren’t supposed to talk about climate change or global warming…

    10 March: Guardian: Tom McCarthy: Florida denies official ban on ‘climate change’ and ‘global warming’
    But former government employees and others continue to insist that state’s environmental protection department would not allow terms to be used.
    But the president of the south Florida Audubon society has insisted to the Guardian that the agency charged with setting Florida’s environmental policy had indeed banned those phrases, and that the ban ***probably came “from the top.”…
    “It is simply not true that there is a policy prohibiting words being used,” said Luke Strickland, the (DEP) spokesman…
    Asked to provide examples of the use of those phrases in DEP material, Strickland said he would send some. But then he did not…

    10 March: Vox: Florida isn’t the only state trying to shut down discussion of climate change
    Updated by Brad Plumer
    On Monday, Republican Governor Rick Scott denied any such policy was in place. But state employees and outside scientists insist there’s heavy pressure not to talk about the topic…
    In 2012, North Carolina’s GOP-controlled state legislature passed a law to prevent the state from considering the most up-to-date climate science in formulating predictions of rising seas. In Pennsylvania in 2014, back when Republican Tom Corbett was governor, one former state employee alleged that she was ordered to remove references to “climate change” from the conservation agency’s website…
    Likewise, in 2010, the Florida Oceans and Coastal Council’s Annual Research Plan contained 15 references to climate change (including a section called “Research Priorities — Climate Change”). In the 2015 version of the report, climate change is only mentioned once — an extraneous reference that state employees told Kortem must have slipped past the censors…

    SHAMEFUL STUFF, BUT TO BE EXPECTED FROM THE MSM.

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    Alan

    Can’t help but thinking that this is actually the script for a new episode of of the ABC’s comedy Utopia. Was Rob Stich cc on the release

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    I had a similar experience with the now defunct Dept. of Climate Change and Environment (DCC&E) about Australia “meeting” its Kyoto CO2 emissions target.
    A few rough numbers as they kept changing year by year. While annual (1990 – 2012) CO2 emissions from power, transport, industrial process etc. increased from 416 to 552 Mtpa or 136 Mtpa in a consistent trend, emissions from land use and forestry DECREASED from 140 to 17 Mtpa or 123 Mtpa, which just happens to offset the increase.
    As this seemed like playing Excel games I asked three times for clarification. Finally I was told that the UN allows LU&F emissions to be estimated, without requiring reviewable backup, and that is what they did to get a 123 Mtpa decrease. Simple, they knew the required answer and got it.

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    RobertBobbert GDQ

    Some say Mr Bob Zimmerman predicted this decades ago. As we know Celebrities get it right all the time too!

    Come gather ’round Scientists
    Wherever you roam
    And admit that the sea waters
    Around you have grown
    And accept it that soon
    You’ll be sweating to the bone.
    If your Universe to you
    Is worth savin’
    Then you better start climate alarmin’
    Or you’ll sink like Willie Soon
    For the temperatures they are a-changin’

    Come everyday scientists throughout the land
    And don’t criticise what you can’t understand
    Infallible Climate Scientists are
    Beyond your ken and command.
    The whole world is rapidly heating
    Please get out of the new Tenure world
    if you can’t fudge a dodgy model
    For the temperatures
    they are a-chaa aaay aaay ging

    This ‘audit’ is what we expected so do not get down in the dumps for we have the Science in satellites, buoys, tidal gauges, ice cores, Antarctica and multitudes of other real world observations.

    They got Climate Models and … Comedy Gold?

    We have the Scientists in David Evans, Bob Carter, Roy Spencer, Willard and Willie, Jennifer Marohasy, Warwick Hughes, Ken Stewart, Anton Lang and miltitudes more. Plus the Geologists, Engineers and Biologists and an informed readership that values science and observation.

    And we have the absolute Top-Gun in Jo Nova.

    They got Micky Mann, Timmy, East Anglia and the emails, Sir Paul Nurse, Mr Pachauri and UNSW and the Ship of Fools. They got Naomi 1 and Naomi 2, Celeste Young and Climate Change Grief. I informed Celeste over at the Conversation that I had entered her Climate Grief Paper to The 50 Shades of Academic Climate Change Stoopidity Hall of Fame and it had been instantly accepted and rocketed to Number 1 and with a magnum sized bullet. Yet to get back to me.

    3 things to make you dismiss this BOM whitewashing and revel in some amazing things.

    1. Imogen Spendlove. 15 years old last month and your basic, everyday, musical, vocalist prodigy. Try Imogen ‘Feelin’ Good’ or ‘You’ll Never Walk Alone’ and please explain how she did not win Voice Kids last season.

    2. “Angelina Jordan. Bang Bang. YouTube.” This child won Norways Got Talent show, She sings ‘Bang Bang’ ,the classic Sonny and Cher smash hit of the sixties. This is quite age inappropriate but what this child has got and from where she got it is beyond explanation.

    3.’UN survey. 2015 .Vote for the World You Want.’ Add ‘results’ to Google search.

    So far about 7,222,000 votes from people all over the world. You have 6 votes to share among 16 options such as education, jobs , food, transport, internet, climate change and others. It runs till about September and the current state of voting , the countries voting and the Income levels and voting patterns are fascinating and illuminating.
    How will The UN spin this one? I check out the numbers each week and as Mr Eastwood likes to say ‘ Make My Day’.

    Just listened to Angelina doing a couple of Jazz classics and.. and… how is this possible?
    Is… Is … Climate Change … and Co2 …isn’t that the scientific default position to all things beyond explanation nowadays!??

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    Another Ian

    Message to Bob Baldwin and co

    No – this will not calm the storm

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    Peter C

    Mini Cyclone Nathan seems to have blown itself out. Max recorded wind gust was 100kph at Bouganville reef. Is that actually a cyclone?

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      Peter C

      from the BOM;

      Definitions

      1. What is a tropical cyclone?

      A tropical cyclone is defined as a non-frontal low pressure system of synoptic scale developing over warm waters having organised convection and a maximum mean wind speed of 34 knots or greater extending more than half-way around near the centre and persisting for at least six hours.

      On that definition Cyclone Nathan barely made it as a cyclone, as observed at Bouganville Reef (the highest windspeeds recorded).

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        Yonniestone

        Peter just in from the BOM is that from now on all cyclones will be CAT-5 regardless of any relevant or accurate data, anything less would be an insult to alarmism. /sarc.

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    Gotta luv the way this document follows the traditions and customs of this culture by contradicting itself.
    Is it “set” singular or “sets” plural?
    “As recommended by an independent peer review, we are establishing a Technical Advisory Forum comprised of leading scientists and statisticians to review and provide advice on Australia’s official temperature data set.”

    Vs

    “The establishment of this Forum will provide an independent framework for quality assurance tests and analysis of the Bureau’s data sets for greater transparency.”

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      Greg Cavanagh

      I don’t know where you got these two quotes from Sliggy, but to me, they say entirely different things.

      1- As recommended by someone (where they paid to make a recommendation? by whom?), a Forum comprised of trustworthy people will review and tell comment on the data set.

      Doesn’t say much to me aI don’t know where you got these two quotes from Sliggy, but to me, they say entirely different things.

      1- As recommended by someone (where they paid to make a recommendation? by whom?), a Forum comprised of trustworthy people will review and tell comment on the data set.

      Doesn’t say much at all to me.

      2- This forum(supposedly independent), will provide a framework for quality assurance testing and analysis of the data set.

      Quality assurance is a document trail of what decision were made, having nothing to do with “quality” or “assurance” of the data set.

      2- This forum(supposedly independent), will provide a framework for quality assurance testing and analysis of the data set.

      Quality assurance is a document trail of what decision were made, having nothing to do with “quality” or “assurance” of the data set.

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    pat

    ABC Brisbane radio is running Nathan advisory’s non-stop.

    as for Cairns Post, they have:

    Cyclone Nathan to become category 3 system
    By Nathan Paull: AAP: March 11, 2015 5:50PM (Qld time 6.50pm AEDT)
    CYCLONE Nathan is on track to develop into a category three system as it brings destructive winds to far north Queensland.
    THE Bureau of Meteorology expects the storm, which was a category two on Wednesday afternoon, to intensify on Thursday before going back out to sea.
    Just before 5pm on Wednesday, Cyclone Nathan was about 205km northeast of Cooktown and was heading towards the coast about 14km/h, with gusts up to 130km/h.
    The bureau expects very destructive winds to batter Queensland’s coastline between Cape Flattery and Cape Melville, north of Cooktown, from Thursday morning.
    Heavy rain and flash flooding is expected, and abnormally high tides could develop along the coast on Thursday.
    Acting Chief Superintendent Brett Schafferius said although Cyclone Nathan was not expected to hit the coast, residents should not be complacent, particularly given how unpredictable such systems could be.
    Disaster management groups in the region have been in regular contact.
    Central Queensland was rocked by category five Cyclone Marcia in February, which was also tipped to be a much weaker system before it intensified as it hit the coast.
    Emergency Services Minister Jo-Ann Miller said Cyclone Nathan could still wreak havoc without crossing the coast…
    http://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/breaking-news/cyclone-nathan-category-two-nearing-coast/story-fnjbnvyh-1227258552247

    ???

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    pat

    a fun read:

    10 March: Acton Institute: Bruce Edward Walker: Religious Left Preps ‘Grassroots’ Strategy for Pope Francis’ Environmental Encyclical
    If I were to publicly announce a Bible study meeting at the local public library, one can imagine the hue and cry from secularists fretting about a looming right-wing theocratic takeover of America. Change the subject to Pope Francis’ upcoming encyclical on climate change, however, and all you hear are crickets chirping from the separation of church and state crowd…
    The fact remains that no one – outside the Vatican at least – yet knows what Pope Francis will say about climate change in his upcoming encyclical. But that hasn’t stopped the Citizens Climate Lobby, a national astro-turfing outfit with local “grassroots” chapters throughout the United States, including one in your writer’s own backyard in Mt. Pleasant, Michigan. Last weekend, CCL local chapters gathered to listen to national broadcast presentations by Lonnie Ellis, associate director of the Catholic Climate Covenant, and Naomi Oreskes, author of Merchants of Doubt, the book upon which the recently released film documentary is based. The CCL chapter in my hometown congregated in the local public library annex to listen to the podcast recorded earlier that afternoon…
    Taking the Bait
    Since the editor of my local paper (wherein, it should be divulged, I author a weekly conservative column) is in the tank for climate-change alarmism, an opinion piece ostensibly written by the local CCL organizer in the Morning Sun advertised the event on its editorial page…(EXCERPTS)…
    Readers will forgive me for taking Ms. Koper’s bait and attending the event incognito. It’s not every day one reads of the Church’s call for environmental stewardship in the secular press…
    There I was, however, being lectured by Ellis that Pope Francis’ as yet unreleased encyclical would be a boon for environmentalists and the religious left. “People don’t know what an encyclical is but they’re excited about this one,” he said. “The debate on climate change is so ripe,” he continued, and the encyclical may just be the “tool to raise moral issues for the future.”
    Reminding attendees that Pope Francis has an “approval rating politicians would kill for,” Ellis says the pontiff’s message will be “potentially a game-changer”—as was every development reported during the meeting from Oreskes’ “game-changing” claim for the film adaptation of her book to Ms. Koper’s assertion her CCL local’s upcoming efforts also will be “game-changing.” …
    Amplify ‘Grassroots’ Moral Messaging
    Ellis perceives tremendous marketing and messaging opportunities deriving from Pope Francis’ encyclical and his visit to the United States later this year…
    The CCL local meeting I attended wrapped up by addressing how they should engage “deniers” in the local press. At this point I nearly broke cover to challenge such a crass, insensitive accusation, and one lobbed by a local clergyman to boot in violation of the organization’s second core belief “in respect for all viewpoints, even for those who would oppose us.” Perhaps I took his comment too seriously, as I’m one of the skeptics who weighs-in occasionally on the matter. The good pastor was reminded that “millions of dollars” funded the “opposition,” but no mention was made of the fact that CCL’s parent organization is “one of the highest income nonprofits.” Nor was mention made of the millions of dollars donated to anti-fossil fuel (re: climate-change) groups by Nathaniel Simons’ Sea Change outfit each year – usually between $45 million and $55 million, up to 40 percent of those donations derive from anonymous offshore accounts or that Simons is invested heavily in renewable energy schemes.
    One thing is for certain: The publication of Pope Francis’ encyclical on climate change – expected in the weeks ahead and to be followed by an address at the United Nations this fall – will open the floodgates of carefully orchestrated letters and opinion pieces from “grassroots” organizations that will claim the moral high ground based on whatever Francis writes. Any opposition will be denigrated as immoral and better funded than the climate-change activists, which is patently untrue. This means the lowly grassroots CCL and likeminded church and environmental groups will be rebutting and trolling my newspaper columns well into the foreseeable future…
    http://blog.acton.org/archives/76568-religious-left-preps-grassroots-strategy-for-pope-francis-environmental-encyclical.html

    (RE WEBSITE ABOVE: The Acton Institute for the Study of Religion and Liberty is named after the great English historian, Lord John Acton (1834-1902). He is best known for his famous remark: “Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” )

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    RogueElement451

    A break through for common sense , Florida tells its eco staff to shut up about global warming, now they are so confused they can hardly talk at all , without a party line they are lost poor things, :-
    http://fcir.org/2015/03/08/in-florida-officials-ban-term-climate-change/

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    • #
      Gee Aye

      Oh ok people aware being told what to say by our elected representatives. Lucky they know all. Great!

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    RogueElement451

    Bah ! it is all lies , the above notion that certain phrases were banned has been refuted by the Governor,,,, damn!!

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    pat

    unsurprisingly, Suzanne Goldenberg has the Fred Singer smear story in The Guardian as “Climate sceptics attempt to block Merchants of Doubt film”.. pure trash & PR for the docu.

    10 March: CBC: Merchants of Doubt: Inside the world of skeptics-for-hire
    Guest host Allan Hawco speaks with director Robert Kenner about his new documentary film, Merchants of Doubt, which goes inside the unseemly world of skeptics-for-hire — people paid by corporations to cast doubt on the health risks of smoking, climate change, and chemicals in food…
    Click on the listen button above to hear the full segment (audio runs 19:14).
    http://www.cbc.ca/radio/q/q-schedule-for-tuesday-march-10-2015-1.2988532/merchants-of-doubt-inside-the-world-of-skeptics-for-hire-1.2988552
    (comments mostly unimpressed with another CAGW propaganda piece from CBC)

    9 March: Photographer Dapixara: Now Melting! Human Size Icebergs In Cape Cod
    Comment by Nowhereman: Human size? They look bigger than the human in the picture. Change that to Al Gore size.
    http://www.dapixara.com/News/files/Human-Size-Icebergs-In-Cape-Cod.html

    check following url, piece was originally titled “Mini Icebergs Washing Ashore Along Cape Cod”:

    10 March: Boston Globe: Steve Annear: Large chunks of ice washing ashore along Cape Cod
    The beaches of Cape Cod are taking on an Arctic look, even as the temperature warms.
    Months of bitter cold created huge sheets of ice that are now breaking up and washing ashore. In Wellfleet, there are chunks of ice reminiscent of those found in much harsher climates…
    “They are bigger this year because there has been no snow melt in between storms,” McCaffery (Cape Cod National Seashore administrator) said. “I’m not surprised, considering the type of winter we have had.”…
    https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/03/10/mini-icebergs-washing-ashore-along-cape-cod/jZJ8RIkyG9Rztlv0eJ3kMO/story.html

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    pat

    barely intelligible:

    11 March: Business Spectator: Tristan Edis: What to talk about when you can’t talk about climate change
    A think-tank linked with Monash University called ClimateWorks has released a study finding that Australia could nearly double its energy productivity by 2030.
    Now that all sounds great but what’s energy productivity, I hear you say?
    It’s the thing you talk about when you want the government to engage in containing greenhouse gas emissions, but you know they switch off the moment you mention the phrase ‘climate change’…
    But there are important differences between energy productivity and energy efficiency…
    To illustrate the difference, the fastest and most effective way you could improve Australia’s energy productivity would be to shut down every one of the remaining aluminium smelters in the country. You’d get an amazing improvement in energy productivity but, at least in the short-term, energy efficiency (at a global level) would remain unchanged or possibly get worse.
    In the end shutting down our entire aluminium smelting sector, or other energy-intensive industries, to replace with production from other countries is not going to win you a huge amount of votes. So I’d suggest what most people really want is improved energy efficiency, irrespective of whether some Coalition MPs deem the combination of words taboo…
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/3/11/policy-politics/what-talk-about-when-you-cant-talk-about-climate-change

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    patrick healy

    Great article Joanne,
    And some great posts.
    I find it unfortunate that Dr Marohasy, saw fit to traduce Cardinal Pell. As a recently refusnik catholic (mainly due to the position of the present pope on global warming), I find it sad that she should insult Cardinal Pell.
    After all he is the only high ranking catholic on our side and should be complimented and nurtured as such. Your prime minister of course pretends to be, but has not come out publicly and failed his colours to the mast like your cardinal has.

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    patrick healy

    Nailed (fingers!)

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    Mervyn

    Did anyone actually expect truly independent experts would be appointed to audit BoM’s temperature data?

    The only way forward on this is for people to complain directly to Tony Abbott.

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    richard

    There is not one bit of data I trust, was flicking through some WMO papers, they give URban data a zero for quality – 2% of the world is Urban and 27% of temp data is based in these areas so 27% is of zero quality.

    Africa is one fifth of the world’s land mass, WMO flag up that Africa needs 5000 temp stations for accurate data. It has the worlds worst records, what data is available- very little- is based in Urban areas so of Zero quality.

    The world’s flora and fauna and cities are ever changing and the WMO flag up that changes in temps could be changes in the micro climate and not the world climate.

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    RogueElement451

    Meanwhile here in Jersey CI (where the Jersey cow and potato comes from), we built a desalination plant in ,,,around 1970′s .I think we had a serious drought in 1963 where we only had water provided for 3/4 hours a day so, fill the bath people! We filled the bath and buckets and anything else we could find and that was the hottest summer I can recall. After many years we built the desalination plant ,which as luck would have it was never used ,or only on exceptional occasions ,so much so that after around 20 years it was down to skeleton staff ,an engineer ( a real one) and a mate or two to oil the joints and keep it ticking over so that it did not just rust to death.
    At any rate 15 years later we flooded Queens Valley so as to add an additional reservoir of water and safeguard the needs of the population, 30,000 or more protested about the flooding ,but it came to pass and we have not suffered a shortage of water since ,,,so to the point of the story …….. The Jersey Waterworks board has indicated that prices may have to rise in the future because of ,,,,,,DA DA ! CLIMATE CHANGE!! “We must upgrade the desalination plant so that the people of jersey will not suffer in the event that …..DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE. We have another drought !!!!!!!!!!!!”
    Seriously ?? No that would be just an excuse to raise quarterly charges of water to satisfy the 51% State owned monopoly.

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    EternalOptimist

    This is not consultation, it’s insultation

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    BULLDOG44

    I may not have worked at the BOM, but I have worked at airports. The supposition that this somehow negates ” UHI effect” is ludicrous.

    Airports are composed of tens of kilometres of concrete and tarmac in the form of runways and carparks. Although there are blast deflectors at certain points to protect the public from jet engine exhausts, there are vast amounts of heat generated at ground level as engines are run up for takeoff.
    Airports are deliberately sited at exposed, and/ or windy areas for both safety and to allow for lift off.
    It’s hard to describe the heat radiated off the concrete at airports on hot days it can be like a furnace, albeit with the tang of burning kerosene in the air. You can only imagine the heat retained in those vast areas of concrete that continue to radiate through the night.
    The BOM may find airports convenient places to take temperatures, but they are far from representative of the surrounding area in general.
    I particularly liked the old site for the Stevenson screen at Cairns airport beside the old tower and directly in line with the old Ansett engineering hangar where they used to run up the jet engines for testing after servicing or repair, naturally the engines had to face the cyclone wire fence, because directing the blast toward the runway would likely turn over the light aircraft or helicopters that operated from the same area.

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    pat

    BOM has lost a lot of credibility, that much is certain. farmers i talk to are particularly scathing about them.
    meanwhile,

    Weatherzone: Tropical Cyclone Nathan (Coral Sea) March 2015

    ol mate: I still cant understand why areas south of Cooktown are on warning. There’s good guidance to suggest its gunna chuck a U-turn and head no where near them. Even their own error margin has it well clear of the areas south of Cooktown.

    Coxy: Cue Courier Mail hysteria about SE Queensland cyclone doomsday in 3…2…1…

    Mick10: yesterday GFS has Nathan had a cat 3 hitting the Burdekin region south of Townsville. next run it was out near New Caledonia!

    Coxy: So one can infer there’s a bit of uncertainty with this system? ;-)

    batty: Could that result in Nathan breaking down into a TD and just give us on the NCQC a good drenching rain to Talley up our sad March average totals?

    Drought declared: 3.4mm of rain at Cape Flattery since 9.00am Unbelievable! Is there a cyclone out they’re?

    Things: Shouldn’t be long now before the upper trough gives it a boot up the rear and sends it on it’s way. Shear not looking great for it though once it’s further out into the CS, I think this one is destined for the graveyard …
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1317141/Re_Tropical_Cyclone_Nathan_Cor

    latest Map:

    TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
    Tropical Cyclone Nathan
    Issued at 2:08 pm EST Thursday 12 March 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 15.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

    latest MSM (ABC/Fairfax have gone quiet, with ABC concentrating on TC Pam)

    Welcome to Australia, sorry about the cyclone
    NEWS.com.au- 5 minutes ago
    IT TOOK eight years for this cruise ship to finally visit Australia…And in a case of extraordinary bad luck, a cyclone also decided to stop by at the same … Cyclone Nathan remains a category 2 and the Bureau of Meteorology …

    Cyclone Nathan to hit category 3 as it nears Cape York
    Courier Mail – ‎4 hours ago‎

    Tropical Trouble Around Australia as Three Cyclones Take Shape
    AccuWeather.com-52 minutes ago
    AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said “Tropical Cyclone Nathan will likely reach the equivalent of a Category 3 by late on Thursday, with …
    (includes TC Pam which doesn’t concern Australia)

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      Bobl

      This is just laying the foundations for quantum cyclones, where cyclones miraculously tunnel accross space and momentarilly appear to be in two places simultaneously. /sarc (if anyone really needed to know)

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    pat

    just noticed the original headline for -

    Welcome to Australia, sorry about the cyclone
    NEWS.com.au- 5 minutes ago

    which i posted earlier, was -

    Are Australia’s waters cursed?
    NEWS.com.au‎ – 5 hours ago

    MSM is insane.

    12 March: ABC: Tropical Cyclone Nathan brings heavy rain and wind but staying away from coast
    Updated about an hour ago
    Tropical Cyclone Nathan is bringing heavy rain and strong winds to parts of far north Queensland but is virtually stationary in the Coral Sea ahead of its predicted swing away from the coast.
    At 4:00pm (AEST) on Thursday, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said the category two system was about 175 kilometres north of Cooktown and was “slow moving”.
    It is expected to intensify into a category three before doing a U-turn by Friday morning…
    Cook Shire Mayor Peter Scott said there had been good rain in Cooktown, with just over 110 millimetres falling since 9:00am.
    “But the river’s still not showing any sign of flooding and things have drained away pretty quickly now looking out the window,” he said.
    “Just a steady breeze and overcast.”…
    BoM forecaster Bill O’Connor said while the system was expected to start moving away, it could bring gale-force winds to communities in the cyclone warning zone.
    Torrential rain is forecast for the North Tropical Coast, Tablelands, and Cape York Peninsula.
    Widespread rainfall totals of 300 to 500 millimetres are forecast from Wednesday evening through to Friday, with isolated totals to 600 millimetres possible.
    The heaviest falls are expected north of Cape Tribulation, which is close to the cyclone centre…
    Chair of the Australian Banana Growers Council Doug Phillips said rain from Tropical Cyclone Nathan may wash soil, potentially contaminated with panama disease, into other plantations…
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-12/cyclone-nathan-to-strengthen-off-queenslands-coast/6305458

    never a silver lining for ABC when reporting the weather…

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    pat

    12 March 4:47 pm: AAP: Cleo Fraser: Qld island resort facing second cyclone
    An island resort devastated by Cyclone Ita almost a year ago has had to delay its reopening, pending yet another unwanted guest: Cyclone Nathan.
    With destructive winds forecast to lash Lizard Island, off north Queensland, completion of the $30 million renovation project is expected to be delayed…
    Now they must wait and see if Mother Nature again unleashes carnage on the island.
    “It’s almost a year to the day,” resort executive director Greg Magi told AAP.
    “I don’t know whose grave I’ve walked on.”…
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/qld/a/26604734/cyclone-nathan-maintains-u-turn-trajectory/

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