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Imaginary hottest “fingerprints” found in extreme weather by failed models

Posted By Joanne Nova On October 5, 2014 @ 5:13 pm In Global Warming | Comments Disabled

Finally, for only the 87th time, climate modellers have uncovered the definitive proof they’ve been finding in different forms every year since 1988.

ARC extreme unscience – corrected at no cost to the Australian taxpayer. Click for a big printable copy.

They seek, and find, the most excellent propaganda they can pretend is science. Look, this is the specific handprint of non-specific climate-change! Everything bar climate-sameness is proof the climate changes. How inane? The unscientific vagueness gives this poster away as being more about propaganda than about communication of science.

… in a special edition of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, examining extreme events around the world during 2013, a series of papers home in on the Australian heat waves, and identify a human influence.

Using short, noisy records, with flawed and adjusted data, it is possible to run broken climate models and show “definitively” that current heat-waves and hottest years are due to man-made emissions. And if you believe that, you could be gullible enough to be a Guardian journalist.

That is, climate models that do not include solar factors like magnetic fields, solar winds, cosmic rays, solar spectral changes, or lunar effects are able to rule out all these natural forces, and the others we don’t know about yet. This is the magic of one-sided modeling which  didn’t predict the pause, and was wrong about humidity, rainfall, drought, and clouds too.  They don’t work on regional, local, or continental scales. They didn’t predict polar conditions, and they failed on upper tropospheric patterns (see Storch et al, 2013; Paltridge et al, 2009;  Anagnostopoulos et al, 2010;  Sheffield et al, 2012; Miller et al, 2012;  Koutsoyiannis et al, 2008; Previdi and Polvani, 2014; Christy et al, 2010;  and Fu et al, 2011).

My favorite witchdoctor quote comes from David Karoly, who tosses all pretense of scientific demeanor to the wind:

“We often talk about the fingerprint of human-caused climate change when we look at extreme weather patterns,” said David Karoly, professor of meteorology at the University of Melbourne’s School of Earth Sciences. “This research across four different papers goes well beyond that.

“If we were climate detectives, then Australia’s hottest year on records in 2013 wasn’t just a smudged fingerprint at the scene of the crime, it was a clear and unequivocal handprint showing the impact of human-caused global warming.”

It’s unequivocal! Praise the Lord!

Sorry, wait, … are we talking about man-made emissions of CO2, or “global warming”? Are we being accidentally vague Tim Radford?

… they did find that global warming doubled the chance of severe heat waves in Australia—making extreme summer temperatures five times more likely, increasing the chance of drought conditions sevenfold, and making hot temperatures in spring 30 times more probable.

And they reckoned that the record hot year of 2013 would have been virtually impossible without global warming. At a conservative calculation, the science showed that the heat of 2013 was made 2,000 times more likely by global warming.

Thus does gibberish flow. If global warming was due to natural causes, would it increase heatwaves? Could be…

Since the models are proven failures, when they can’t find extreme weather “without the influence of CO2″ the only conclusion we can draw is that taxpayers are wasting money on poseurs who pretend to be scientists and climate models that omit the real causes. We know it’s not CO2 and we know it’s not the minor changes in solar radiation, so…it’s something else.

This is argument from ignorance (“we don’t understand the climate, but we can’t think of anything else it could be and we don’t want to”):

Climate scientists Dr Sophie Lewis, of the Australian National University, and Professor David Karoly, of the University of Melbourne, ran two groups of computer models for a study into Australia’s scorching 2013.

In one group, they included the extra carbon dioxide in the atmosphere being added at the rates they are now. In another group of models, they left out the human contribution.

They found that on average, the computer models with current levels of carbon dioxide managed to reproduce the temperatures comparable to that scorching year of 2013 every six years.

The Australian Research Council (ARC) funds this and defines this kind of unscientific reasoning as “excellence”. It’s another argument for cutting off all funding to the ARC and setting up a new agency entirely. The best thing we could do for Australian science right now is to stop funding people who produce propaganda instead of science.

Other failures of Climate models

The source of unscientific political activism

REFERENCES

Storch, H.V., Barkhordarian, A., Hasselmann, K., and Zorita, Eduardo., Can Climate Models explain the recent stagnation in Global Warming?, Institute for Coastal Research, 2013, [PDF]

Paltridge, G., Arking, A., and Pook, M., Trends in middle- and upper-level tropospheric humidity from NCEP reanalysis data, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2009, 98, 3-4, 351-35, [Abstract].

Anagnostopoulos, G. G., Koutsoyiannis, D., Christofides, A., Efstratiadis, A., and. Mamassis, N., A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data, Hydrological Sciences Journal,  2010, 55, 7, 1094 — 1110, [PDF].

Sheffield, J., Wood, E.F., and Roderick, M.L., Little change in global drought over the past 60 years, Nature Letter, 2012, 491, 435-438, [Nature].

Miller, M, A., Ghate, V, P., and Zahn, R, K., The Radiation Budget of the West African Sahel and its Controls: A Perspective from 2 Observations and Global Climate Models, Journal of Climate, 2012, 25, 5976–5996, [PDF]

Koutsoyiannis, D., Efstratiadis, A., Mamassis, N., and Christofides, A., On the credibility of climate predictions, Journal–des Sciences Hydrologiques, 2008, 53(4), 671–684, [PDF].

Previdi, M., and Polvani, L. M., Climate system response to stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,  2014, [Abstract].

Christy J, R., Herman, B., Pielke, Sr, R., Klotzbach, P., McNide, R, T., Hnilo J, J., Spencer R, W., Chase, T., and Douglass, D., What Do Observational Datasets Say about Modeled Tropospheric Temperature Trends since 1979?, Remote Sensing, 2010, 2148-2169, MDPI.

Fu, Q., Manabe, S., and Johanson, C., On the warming in the tropical upper troposphere: Models versus observations, Geophysical Research Letters, 2011, 38, L15704, [PDF].

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