JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Weekend Unthreaded

Meandering off track…

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Weekend Unthreaded, 8.5 out of 10 based on 26 ratings

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126 comments to Weekend Unthreaded

  • #
    scaper...

    Still waiting for a reply from the Human Rights Commission in regards to my 18C on Palmer. Hedley reckons the delay is promising because of the wedge I’ve created.

    Also, Lambie claiming to be indigenous has the possibility of enhancing or totally destroying the game plan. We’ll see.

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  • #
    • #
      James Murphy

      Apache has found what they claim to be the largest NW Shelf oil play discovered in the last 20 years. No protests noticed anywhere about ‘foreign companies taking our oil and raping the environment’.

      Linc Energy have started drilling the 1st of 3 (up to 6, depending on results of the 1st 3) unconventional wells in the Arckaringa basin in South Australia, and Central Petroleum continue drilling unconventional wells in SW QLD, near the QLD/SA/NT borders.

      Strangely, no protests about the evils of shale oil/gas and hydraulic fracturing at these locations by the usual suspects – one would think that CSG on the eastern seaboard was the only type of hydrocarbon extraction done in Australia if one was to listen to the breathless hyperbole by the (mostly ignorant of geological and engineering facts) ‘lock the gate’ movement.

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  • #
    Yonniestone

    I’m a bit confused on how many Climate Change protesters have allegedly shown up around Australia, there’s a claim of 30,000 in Melbourne then only 100 in Cairns for the G20.

    I mean if the MSM are still going to spread bullsh$t lies at least try and make it half believable, second thoughts carry on MSM as even the sheeple will recognize ridiculous eventually.

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    • #
      Lank

      30000 in Melbourne claimed by the Age. Looks closer to 3000 in the pictures they show.
      This may be a good opportunity to call out the Fairfax media on bogus reporting. Any accurate counts from anyone?

      251

      • #
        James Murphy

        I always like to see the numbers estimated by the police, as I am pretty sure they have a strong interest in being realistic with their estimates, rather than the organisers, or media outlets (like the ABC) which have thrown their weight behind such schemes.

        Anything which comes via GetUp!, or what used to be ‘march in march’, but is now ‘March Australia’ on the subject of AGW can almost certainly be discounted as a total distortion of fact, not to mention total absence of accountability and traceability when it comes to their funding…

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        • #
          LevelGaze

          ABC TV news at 7pm reports police estimates at 20,000. Bit less than 30,00, but a hell of a lot more than 3,000 or 10,000.

          What’s an honest man to believe?

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          • #
            stan stendera

            I’m in the USA, but from what I read on several Oz blogs, Anybody but the ABC.

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          • #
            James Murphy

            Well… lets hope the police don’t up the numbers so they can roster more people on for overtime purposes… but I still (perhaps naively) that of the sources available, they are the most likely to be closest to reality.

            In some ways, I am always pleased to see people actually on the streets protesting about something, even if i don’t necessarily agree with their point of view. Political lassitude is a big problem in Australia.

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            • #
              NielsZoo

              That’s a valid point. That kind of duty is overtime and is always used as an excuse/reason to be over budget. Considering the massive increase of military style policing here in the States, I’d have to assume that any estimate from an organization controlled by unions and petty bureaucrats would err to the very high side to justify spending more tax dollars and increasing ranks.

              Hopefully there are some decent overhead pictures taken of the Great Climate Sheep Roundup of 2014 so that someone can get accurate estimates of their numbers.

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            • #
              David

              lets hope the police don’t up the numbers so they can roster more people on for overtime purposes

              JM it is a long time since I had anything to do with organising numbers for events but the contacts are still there and the last thing a senior Officer wants to do is waste the allocated budget for your command on unnecessary manpower for largely irrelevant occurrences.

              Shanah tovah everyone.

              00

          • #
            Turtle of WA

            I reckon talking to parking inspectors would be more illuminating than talking to the cops.

            60

          • #
            James Bradley

            If the numbers are correct then about 24,000,000 Aussies did not attend the Climate Change rallies.

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          • #
            bobl

            Not to mention that maybe 20% are just onlookers, or even sceptics come to teach them some science…

            40

    • #
      handjive

      Their ABC is claiming 10,000 in Melbourne.
      Representative of 24b?

      They don’t speak for me.
      More pictures @ link

      http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-21/australians-join-global-push-for-climate-change-action/5758840

      40

      • #
        the Griss

        Last picture.. Milne reckons we should aim higher..

        So do I.. towards 700 ppm atmospheric CO2.

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        • #
          sophocles

          Is there the fossil fuel available to make it?

          40

          • #
            the Griss

            At current known reserves, someone estimated mid 600′s. Can’t recall where or when I saw that number, though.

            Once we hit that value, it will start dropping down again after a while.

            I sure won’t be around, but I hope someone figures out just HOW IMPORTANT CO2 is for the survival of life on the planet before then !!

            Its going to get really tough for world food supplies if that atmospheric concentration drops back down to the subsistence level of 280ppm or below.

            50

          • #
            Leo G

            The more appropriate question is whether we can keep up the exponential rate of increase in anthropogenic emissions so as to maintain an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.
            Assuming that the sequestration rate of notional anthropogenic CO2 is proportional to the amount by which that concentration exceeds the pre-industrial level, it’s most unlikely that 700ppm could be reached no matter how much fossil fuel we had to burn.

            40

            • #
              bobl

              Yes, this is true, emissions from nations like Australia are not increasing, Australian Emissions are about the same as 2000, but as the CO2 concentration rises so does our absorbtion such that now we are absorbing enough of China’s CO2 emissions to completely offset all our own emissions. Australia’s already at nett zero emission through the increased photosynthetic productivity of it’s landmass alone. Wonder when we are going to get our payments from China and India for sinking all their CO2. As the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere edges higher we need to add much more in order to keep it rising because it is being sucked out much more efficiently by the plants. At some point China and India’s emission will stabilise and CO2 will head back down as the biosphere slurps it up.

              Fact is though at 700 ppm we will need to be adding over 6% over natural CO2 input to keep things rising at the same rate because plants will be extracting it at a 30% faster rate – not just our 3%, it’ll be sinking mother natures 97% of the CO2 30% faster too, at 1000ppm we’d need to be producing well over 10% of all CO2 to see a noticeable rise in CO2- can’t see that happening.

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      • #
        James Murphy

        Quality reporting by our national broadcaster. Copy/paste from Twitter or equivalent, and call it a story…

        as for Christine Milne, she says we need to take action, but would rather that action take place via an evil capitalist ETS, and is against the concept of Direct Action, presumably because it’s a Liberal thing…?

        Ban Ki-moon, on the other hand, sounds like a used car salesman, or a persian rug emporium with its continuous ‘closing down’ sales when he says “…”Climate change is the defining issue of our time. The longer we delay our action, the more we will have to pay…”

        Buy now and save!

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    • #

      It was 30 thousand. They needed to change a light bulb.

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      • #

        Change the light bulb into what? ;-)

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        • #
          the Griss

          Gees Bernd, I know they are a pack of fairies, but that doesn’t mean they have magical powers !

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        • #
          James Murphy

          don’t worry, it’s one of those Compact Fluorescents, which, with all the extra plastic, copper, and mercury vapour, and almost non-existent recycling mechanisms (at least that was the case when I was last in my aussie homeland a couple of years ago), are totally safe for the environment…

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      • #
        the Griss

        “They needed to change a light bulb.”

        Yet, not one light bulb among the whole lot ! :-)

        90

      • #
        the Griss

        Point to note.

        The Greens want no power after dark, unless the wind is blowing.

        They also want population reductions.

        These seem like rather contrary causes to me ;-)

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        • #
          Bones

          Very good point,no power no TV or computer,what’s a healthy thinking couple to do.

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        • #
          Gary in Erko

          “The Greens want no power after dark, unless the wind is blowing.”
          And they want us to only use recycled electrons.

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          • #
            Roy Hogue

            Sounds like a good business opportunity there. Just open up an electron recycling plant and get rich. They might even be bright enough to fall for it.

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          • #
            Rereke Whakaaro

            But that has always been the scam with electricity.

            The Power company sends you an electron, over the wires, and as soon as you think you have got it, they suck it back again, and they do this fifty times a second (sixty times in the U.S.).

            What kind of service is that? If I am paying for an electron, I want to keep it.

            Bring back Direct Current, I say. That way you get to keep, and use, all of the electrons you pay for. Once you have used an electron, and you are finished with it, you just drop it on the ground, and it disappears. You can’t get any more environmentally friendly than that!

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  • #
    Graeme No.3

    The ABC News only said 2,000 in Melbourne. Of course it could have become 30,000 after the number was homogenised.

    They also reported 500 in Adelaide. Unlikely that high, but compare with 25,000 Power supporters going to Melbourne. AGW has become a minority pastime. Even at 30,000 that is less than 0.7% of Melbourne’s population, at 2,000 less than 0.05%.
    Politicians Please Note Numbers.

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    • #
      LevelGaze

      Hmmm…
      Looking at The Age online story right now, the Melbourne street choked with protesters is superficially impressive, but that could be clever camera angling. Anyone here with expertise in that area care to comment?

      The photo taken at the Treasury Gardens shows a lot less bodies on the ground.

      30,000? I very much doubt it.

      60

      • #
        the Griss

        Just as a matter of interest, does anyone know what the crowd was at the last St Kilda game this season ?

        60

      • #
        handjive

        On 12 December, 2009,
        80,000 Australians took to the streets around the country to support calls for a new climate treaty.

        It was Walk Against Warming – the best yet and the most important, smack bang in the middle of global climate negotiations in Copenhagen.

        Walk Against Warming in Melbourne attracted the largest turnout, with 50,000 people taking part.
        ~ ~ ~
        21 September, 2014:
        Locally, more than 10,000 people took to the streets in Melbourne and about 1,500 in Brisbane, with many more attending events in other capital cities.
        . . .
        Success?
        Those numbers have gotta hurt.

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        • #
          bobl

          Of course from the 1500 in Brisbane, remember to subtract the 500 reporters covering the event, and 500 or so curious onlookers and hobos, looking for a free sausage on bread.

          50

    • #
      gnome

      From the sounds of things, more West Australians in Singapore for the GP than marching to destroy the economy.

      50

    • #
      Ian Hill

      There were 36000 in the City-Bay fun run in Adelaide today, so those 500 wouldn’t have even been noticed, wherever they were.

      Poor Port Adelaide, lost the AFL prelim final by three points and the SANFL grand final by four points! :(

      50

  • #
    Truthseeker

    Some sanity has prevailed at opposite ends of the earth.

    Scotland votes decisively to stay part of the United Kingdom (54% to 46%)
    NZ overwhelmingly returns the ruling National Party (48% of the vote – 61 of 121 seats).

    Using climate homogenisation – the world is no longer going insane …

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    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      I went to quite a few political debates, and the subject of climate change was always on the agenda.

      The interesting thing was that none of the candidates at the meetings I attended, were willing to do other than give it lip service. There was no passion at all, not even from the Greens.

      Roads; Schools; Crime; the Islamic State; all raised more emotion than climate.

      I would say that, politically, it is dead, but nobody want to confess to being the undertaker.

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      • #
        the Griss

        Its only coming from the yellers and screamers now.!

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      • #
        sophocles

        The Greens were still talking `Carbon tax.’ I won’t vote for that.

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      • #
        Ross

        The other thing about the NZ election was the performance of the Greens. This time they had more money, they were better organised, are good with social media, had the MSM in their pocket, did a lot of “non green” policy work and most pundits thought they ran a good campaign BUT they still did not get a increased percentage of the vote compared to the last election (ie. it was about the same).
        I hope it is an indication that the “man in the street’ is seeing through the BS.

        40

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          My take is that people are just over it.

          We have had the hype for years now, and nobody has suffered spontaneous combustion due to an increase in temperature.

          People look back on their childhood holidays, and reflect that summers seemed to be hotter and last longer, when they were kids. They remember when dad used to throw all the toys in the back of the ute, and mum made a packed lunch, and they just drove off, for a day at the beach.

          The Greens want to make people feel guilty about those memories. Bad psychology, which was reflected in the election results.

          70

  • #
    Ceetee

    …which makes you wonder just who is pulling the media strings and why. Big call I know but the greatest threat to an informed and vibrant democracy these days is a hopelessly subjective MSM.

    130

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      They have several recipes for News Soup, that uses mostly leftovers, with just a little zest for flavouring. They can produce it by the vat full, so why would they bother to think up a new recipe? It is not as though their audience can go elsewhere for their rubbish wrapping material.

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    • #
      James Murphy

      ahhh, a like-minded person on the subject!

      A hopelessly subjective media + a decline in education standards at all levels = an ignorant and easy to manipulate populous = politician’s wet dreams.

      It isn’t just happening in Australia either. I do not claim there is a global conspiracy, but it does seem to be a global trend amongst ‘developed’ countries. The politicians claim people are smarter because more school-leavers are getting higher marks than ever before, but from my experience with near-school leavers over the last 10 years has shown a marked decrease in the basics. My employer gives everyone an exam to test their proficiency with basic science and engineering concepts (aimed at university graduates, but really, the content is nothing more than what I learned from maths/physics/chemistry/geology at school, and the marks have shown a steady decline over that timeframe.

      They are also required to do a literacy/numeracy test, but I am too scared to ask about those results. Looking at the report done by the ABS which stated that 50% of adults are functionally illiterate/innumerate in Tasmania, things do not look rosy for the rest of the country either…

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  • #
    Andrew McRae

    Further to the climate change comedy theme from Friday, at the other end of the spectrum you have John Oliver. A screenshot from his show was recently somewhat popular on imgur.
    What’s funny to me is that although what Oliver says here is technically correct, because opinions and consensus shouldn’t count in science, most commentators assumed his statement was chastising anybody who doesn’t believe in dangerous man-made warming.
    Indeed you don’t have to go far down the comments to find all of his fans recycling the “97% of climate scientists agree X” arguments in support of CAGW – exactly the fallacy that John Oliver was cautioning against. Now that’s comedy.

    80

  • #

    I note thatr a large crowd of ‘religious leaders’ have promised to act in concert with scientists to urge greater awareness and action on Climate Change and global Warming, or whatever.

    This is probably the first time that one body of people (scientists) is claiming that they are right, and another body, whose thinking is based upon the presence of some invisible but omnipotent god, or goddess, is telling us that we should believe, and then act. What they do not tell us is whose ‘god’ or belief system takes priority.

    I am reminded of the Anglican vicar who walked onto the station platform just in time to watch his train disappear round the curve. He pulled out his pocket watch, gazed at the dial, and then stated “I have had utmost faith in this watch for over twenty years!”

    His Methodist colleague smiles, and replies, “What is faith, without good works?”

    150

    • #

      You should not be surprised that modernist theologians are promoting climate science. They believe in working with other faiths and climate science is based on faith. Normal science demands belief in the scientific method – of confronting hypotheses with data through experimentation. But climate science demands belief in the CAGW hypothesis, so empirical testing becomes a type of “apologetics“. I subscribe to a more traditional sort of Christianity – of reading the bible and interpreting for oneself, but taking account of other interpretations.
      Matt 7:15-17 states

      15″Beware of the false prophets, who come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly are ravenous wolves. 16″You will know them by their fruits. Grapes are not gathered from thorn bushes nor figs from thistles, are they? 17″So every good tree bears good fruit, but the bad tree bears bad fruit.

      Prophets were people with special (God-given) understanding of people and the world around them. In modern language, scientists have special insights into the world. Like the ancient prophets, the ability of scientists is demonstrated to the general public by insights and predictions that come true. The false prophets (or pseudo-scientists) will get nothing right.
      The false prophets doctrine does not require belief in God, just the recognition that there have always been people who claim special insights about the real world, but are just dogmatists who fail to learn from others.

      60

  • #

    On Friday evening I went to hear John Cook speak at Bristol University. It had been arranged by Stephen Lewandowsky, who was also there. There were plenty of skeptics there, most notable being Anthony Watts. It was great to talk to him in the pub, along with many others. Anthony has posted up our impressions here.
    The slides of the main talk are at http://www.skepticalscience.com/talks.shtml. However, I should point out he had a shorter set of slides during the Q&A, on global warming evidence. Instead of surface temperature trends, or even some hockey hocks, he showed the a variant UNIPCC AR5 total heat accumulation covering from 1970. He then said that this is the equivalent to energy of 4 Hiroshima bombs per second since 1998. Next slide had the equivalent of kitten sneezes per second, with a cute picture. No real figure, like if all that energy was used to heat the oceans it would take nearly six hundred years to raise average temperatures by one degree.
    The final slide was adapted John Cook’s flickering “escalator” temperature graph from his website – only last night it had cherries on with the words “cherry-picking”. It was left flickering away for about 15 minutes. If he has truly wanted to show sceptic views in a single graph, rather than a fabrication, he would have used Roy Spencer’s comparison of 73 models against measurements.
    I actually enjoyed the evening. It is very difficult to try to understand views that we are opposed to, especially if they are well argued and/or present new arguments. But with John Cook he is both shallow and predictable.

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    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      John Cook … is both shallow and predictable.

      Yes, but in your opinion, is he predictably shallow, or only shallowly predictable?

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      • #

        Predictably shallow.
        When he showed the heat accumulation graph, I whispered to my neighbor “Four Hiroshima Bombs per second.” There it was on the very next slide.
        On Tuesday Michael Mann is speaking. Unfortunately I cannot attend, and all the free tickets are taken. As Mann is just as predictable, maybe people would like to construct a bingo game for the attendees, with words to cross off.
        The blanks would have to be replaced by “D’s”, as “denier” and “denial” are about as frequent “and” and “is” in normal speech. Included could be words and phrases like:-
        “Nobel-Prize winner” (Lewandowsky introduction)
        “Hockey Stick”
        “My new book”
        “Hockey Stick Wars” (his previous book)
        “fraud”, “Steyn”, “presecution”, “anti-science”, “bloggers”
        “Scientific Organisations”, “Royal Society”

        Others may have better ideas.

        I will be very surprised fall off my chair if Mann produces the following
        - The dozens of hockey sticks that are all basically the same.
        - Any concession that Steve McIntyre might be right.
        - Citing Andrew Montford as a useful summary on the hockey stick story.
        - Showing MBH99 (original hockey stick) alongside Mann 2008, with a small MWP.

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  • #
    handjive

    Finland introduced the world’s first carbon tax in 1990

    http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2013/10/29/factbox-carbon-taxes-around-world

    Thu Sep 18, 2014
    Finnish govt conditionally approves nuclear plant, Greens quit

    http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/finnish-government-nods-to-russia-backed-nuclear-plant–greens-quit/40783154

    70

    • #
      James Murphy

      The UK has approved new nuclear power plants, but strangely, just like their need for gas turbine generators to smooth out wind farm electricity production, and the use of wood instead of coal in existing power stations, small facts like these seem to never get mentioned by those of a Green political persuasion…

      Sadly, I have to say, I never found out any of the above items by reading anything the ABC says on the matter.

      60

      • #
        the Griss

        Don’t they also have banks of diesel generators ready to go ?

        I’m pretty sure quite a few Brits will have petrol and diesel generators on stand by, and lots of wood in store.

        ALL THAT YUMMY CO2, that plants luv so much. :-)

        Pity about the air quality from uncontrolled particulates. Oh well !

        51

      • #
        sophocles

        You’ll like this, then. I think it will be common place where ever `wind’ is installed.

        It’s a great piece of welfare bludgery:
        1. Build a wind farm (at taxpayer’s expense)
        2. take tax money to not produce power.

        I’m in the wrong job!

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  • #
    mmxx

    Are they who theorise that the missing AGW heat is hiding in the oceans deep thinkers or out of their depth?

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  • #
    speedy

    Morning all.

    I’m in Zambia at the moment and one of the first things you notice is the haze in sky due to burnoff ahead of the wet season. Do you reckon that’s included in the climate models? Will send photos when I get the umbilical back.

    Cheers,

    Speedy

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  • #
  • #
    Sceptical Sam

    In 2004, the Commissar of Australia’s climate fools, flim flam Flannery, predicted that “Perth will be the 21st century’s first ghost metropolis” because, in his perverted view, it would run out of water.

    http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/05/18/1084783517732.html

    But today, 14 years into the 21st Century, we who live in Perth, Western Australia, had the joy of observing his failed alarmist exaggeration as it bucketed down with rain on the few climate protesters who remain over here. I loved looking at them huddling under their umbrellas with very sheepish looks on their bedraggled faces. The irony was wonderful.

    What’s better than watching a green get saturated as they demonstrate their stupidity?

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  • #
    Big Dave

    Watched the ABC report on todays climate change march. Thought the young student, assuming a liberal arts undergrad, demanding a 100% renewable energy mix based on solar and wind was entirely clueless.

    In the spirit of ‘be careful what you wish for…’ I wondered if a pilot was in order. Setup a small town, preferably somewhere with temperature extremes, and attempt to power it only using renewables. Give them a budget for turbines, panels, batteries etc. and then fill the town with inner city types like the student. Make sure each house has all the mod cons such as washer, dryer, air-con etc. and see how they go.

    :)

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    • #
      john robertson

      I’m all for it.
      As part of retributive Justice, for the hysterics who cost us so much and should have known better.
      Once convicted of criminal stupidity, they shall get the choice, show us you were not wrong…As in demonstrate this carbon free lifestyle you worked to impose upon society.
      Or demonstrate the lovey nature of the endangered Polar Bear.

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    • #
      James Murphy

      I can imagine the excuses when it doesn’t go well… they’d probably be rushing to blame;
      Climate change,
      Tony Abbott,
      Rupert Murdoch,
      ‘big oil’,
      (and Campbell Newman if it was in QLD)

      If I was a betting man, I’d make an each way bet on Tony, and another on Climate Change for a place.

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  • #
    David A

    pen question…

    One would assume that the GISS global mean anomaly base never changes, as it is based on the SAME past, 1951 to 1980 period.

    Now if the past anomaly basis, 1951 to 1980, is being changed, ( and they do continue to retroactively change the past, including this period) then current maps may be based against a different anomaly, even if it is the same period. (Indeed, if you were to retroactively cool that past anomaly base period, then new maps based on a different anomaly would appear warmer, relative to a now cooler past.) Which brings up a question… If they are changing the past, does the base anomaly change?

    I bring this up because GISS only states that they base the anomaly on this period, but they do not specify which version of that period is being used.

    thanks in advance.

    Oh, here is a chart of GISS changes http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/data-tampering-at-ushcngiss/

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    • #
      Ian George

      This is an interesting point, David.
      I have been looking at the base period for Aust temps (1961-1990) and noticed the differences between the AWAP temps and ACORN data. There does not seem to be a great change for the base 61-90 period but the years before 1961 have been cooled and the years after 1990 have been warmed.
      See here at
      http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/#tabs=Adjustments

      The other aspect to GISS NASA base period is that they use 1951-1980. If they used the more common 1961-1990 period, the temperature anomaly would be reduced by 0.09C which would bring it more in line with HADCRUT.

      20

      • #
        David A

        Thanks Ian. I am not as familiar with the Australian data sets, and do not know how they interact with NASA GISS. The GISS data looks more heavily changed for the GISS anomaly base years; with considerable reduction of original GISS records for that period. The link I gave showed a blink chart of the changes, but not the exact dates of those changes.

        In reality it is a simple question to ask, but I am certain very complicated to forensically discover if cooperation is not given.

        10

    • #
      Geoff Sherrington

      DavidA
      Good question. I have floated it several times but no reponses of any use.
      So, I looked at the Australian temperature graphs that the BOM have put out each year with their Annual Report or State of Climate report.
      These show year to year inconsistencies that could he explained by changes to the reference period magnitude.
      To test this, I asked for electronic figures for all years from 1998 to present, the figures that were used to construct the graphics. Like, about 100 temperature figures for each of 15 years.
      After some back and forth claiming my ask was difficult, I was told I would have to pay several hundred $ to get the data.
      I do not have the fun money to pay for this and I have better fun things to do.
      If there is anyone keen to chase this down, do get in touch with me, cheque book in hand. Potentially, this is quite an important topic and afaik, one that has seldom been studied independently.
      I have a feeling, from the tone of BOM emails on this, that they are reluctant to part with the numbers – but I can digitise them from the graphs, anyhow, just do not have the time to waste.
      Meantime, I am thinking about the equity principles behind demanding
      money for data that my taxes paid to the BOM to keep on my behalf.

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      • #
        David A

        Geoff, I am glad somebody is looking into this a bit. When I had this thought I did not understand why I had not had it before. I thought, well this is to obvious, they would not do this. Then I membered the track record of who “they” are, and thought, hum? maybe they would.

        You said…

        So, I looked at the Australian temperature graphs that the BOM have put out each year with their Annual Report or State of Climate report.
        These show year to year inconsistencies that could he explained by changes to the reference period magnitude

        Interesting. Did you ask them directly?

        20

      • #
        bobl

        We could always get a hundred people to request 1 data set each?

        20

      • #
        Ian George

        Geoff
        As you know, there seems to be some changes to the anomalies for the Aust annual mean temp records. For instance, originally 2009 was hotter than 1998 and then by 2011, the years were reversed. All the years I have checked (2004-2011) have slight adjustments – 2012 and 2013 have not changed.
        The 1961-1990 period shows a slight downward adjustment in the early 1960s and 1980s so all annual means may have been adjusted as a result of a change to the base mean (currently 21.8C). We’ll never know if we can’t get the data.
        (Warwick Hughes had a blink map of the annual means on his site some time ago.)

        The BoM has just added another tab to its ACORN section – ‘Colonial and Federation period data’. I’m afraid it looks like another job for you, Jen, Jo, Ken et al.

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    Greg

    My experience of UK demos used to be halve what the organisers say and double the police estimations. The two figures are usually close.

    What is needed here is some wide angle shots, or police helicopter video. There must be some.

    It is very significant that all the supporting photos from the ground are short view shots that hide any indication of size of the crowd.

    No one seems to want get up on a wall and show the world what a MASSIVE turn-out there has been.

    Since that is the main object of the day, it is pretty clear that there is no such photo to be taken: in any city of the world.

    Soryy guys, this on NOT a protest movement. It’s a picnic.

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    gnomish

    https://twitter.com/ANIMALNewYork/status/513709107581575169/photo/1
    aerial shot. 3 clots congealing around 3 banners? maybe 500 people?

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    Another Ian

    Some other climate marchers


    Hey there, #cbcnorth Official Reader of News Releases – #Igaluit lives on diesel. @ammosher http://t.co/W77AXZc7nn

    — Katewerk (@katewerk) September 21, 2014

    Big tip ‘o the hat to Duke, who suggests Igaluit “demonstrate their true commitment by
    shutting down the diesel generators for about six months or so.”

    More and comments at

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/archives/i-amuse-myself-58.html#comments

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    Chuck Nolan

    As far as I’m concerned, you can’t have cap ‘n trade and you can’t have a carbon tax.
    No thinking taxpayer would consider these.

    * 97.1% of all scientist in the whole wide world know neither of these will have any useful effect on temperature. Period.
    Lots of money and power but no temperature reduction.

    So, if you believe climate needs fixing and you are godlike enough to tweek the thermostat to the proper setting all I ask is that you come up with a workable plan.

    Well, what have you got? I’m all ears.

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    Safetyguy66

    Watching the marches against common sense on the news this morning.

    What puzzles me is what is the end game for these people?

    I mean lets say Tony came out to address the mob and said “alright lets do it your way, we will turn every available cent away from all other projects and onto climate change in any way you want to spend it, right now!”

    What do they expect to happen? I mean look at Adelaide…. It looked like a really nice day
    Do they think the day is going to get even sunnier? Or is that bad too?

    I mean seriously? What is the goal? WE CANT CHANGE THE @#^&*%# WEATHER PEOPLE!!!

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      James Murphy

      Speaking as a former resident, it’s always a really nice day in Adelaide, except when it isn’t, and that isn’t too often, in the scheme of things, on average, over a long time period, after data homogenisation.

      They’d obviously all have to find something else to feel guilty and sanctimonious about, and something new to terrify the kiddies with.

      Maybe they might start actually caring about the massive health and education gap between indigenous and ‘anglo’ people, instead of thinking that since Rudd said ‘Sorry’, everything is all rainbows, unicorns and fairy-bread now.

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    Peter C

    The Greenhouse Theory – Empirical Evidence.
    “Empirical research is based on observed and measured phenomena and derives knowledge from actual experience rather than from theory or belief.” – Penn State University Library

    THEORY

    From The Australian 20 September 2014, Enquirer p 21
    Graham Lloyd (Environment Editor); “Good Science and sound physics says global temperatures will rise in response to higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.”
    And from the same page
    Suzanne Cory (medical reseacher); “more greenhouse gases means more heat absorption by our atmosphere and further warming of the planet.”

    Well the theory is compelling, and it must be right. So it should be made to be right!

    EVIDENCE

    Exhibit 1. is the Bill Nye demonstration shown in Climate 101.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3v-w8Cyfoq8
    In summary, Bill Nye prepares two glass bell jars, each containing a small earth globe and a thermometer. One jar is said to contain air and the other CO2. Each jar is illuminated with a separate IR heat lamp. The jar with the CO2 is purported to reach 100.2F and the Air jar gets to 97.8F
    Does this demonstrate that CO2 absorbs IR radiation and gets hotter? Well no. Apart from problems with the experimental design, with no proper control and no assurance that both jars were getting the same amount of IR radiation, it seems that Bill may have fudged the whole thing.

    Anthony Watts has analysed this experiment/demonstration and came to the conclusion “that the thermometers were never in the jar recording the temperature rise presented in the split screen and the entire presentation was nothing but stagecraft and editing.”
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/climate-fail-files/gore-and-bill-nye-fail-at-doing-a-simple-co2-experiment/

    Exhibit 2. Dr Maggie Aderin-Pocock demonstrates “Greenhouse in a Bottle”
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8394168.stm (nb the link is not working, but the video can be found here; thinkprogress.org/…/science-explained-greenhouse-effect-in-a-bottle)
    Dr Aderin- Pocock, who is some sort of popular rocket scientist, visits the Royal Institution and performs an experiment/demonstration for a group of impressionable young students. Like Bill Nye, she has 2 heat lamps, this time shining on two plastic bottles. One of the bottles contains air. The other is filled with some CO2 which she produces by the reaction of Sodium bicarbonate (NaHCo3) and acetic acid.
    A digital thermometer probe is placed in each bottle and the temperature is shown on Dr Aderin-Pococks computer. Her result is even more impressive. From as starting point of 23.4C (both bottles the same, the CO2 bottle gets to warms to 36.1C after a about a minute compared to 31.2C for Air.
    Dr Aderin-Pococks experiment suffers from the same design problems as Bill Nye’s demonstration.

    The big problem with these two experiments is that other people, including myself, cannot replicate them.
    http://climatechangeeducation.org/hands-on/difficulties/heating_greenhouse_gases/specific_problems/energy_source/index.html
    On the numbers presented it should be a simple demonstration. Therefore I conclude that Dr Maggie Aderin Pocock has fudged her experiment/demonstration , just as Bill Nye did.

    Good Science? Sound Physics?

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    pat

    so-called “progressive” website, Truthout!

    17 Sept: Truthout: Mexico: Researcher Raises Alert About Environmental Dangers of Wind
    By Renata Bessi, Santiago Navarro F. and Translated by Britt Munro and Sarah Farr
    The Tehuantepec Isthmus, a southern region of Mexico that includes the states of Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco and Veracruz, holds the highest concentration of wind farms in Latin America…
    But while environmental impact reports tend to support the construction of these wind farm parks, local communities and environmentalists are raising concerns that local flora and fauna are being affected…
    In a detailed interview, the biologist explained what the environmental impact reports omit: the real impacts on the flora and fauna of the Tehuantepec Isthmus. These negative impacts extend not only throughout Mexico, but also into the ecosystems of Central America.
    Mora even casts doubts about the way in which these environmental studies are conducted. “Generally there are ‘agreements’ behind closed doors between the consultants or research centers and the government offices before the studies are conducted. They fill out forms with copied information (and sometimes badly copied), lies or half truths in order to divert attention from the real project while at the same time complying with requirements on paper.”
    In the following interview, Mora discusses the realities of the wind farms’ impacts – and how environmental impact studies are often manipulated to serve the interests of corporations….READ ON
    http://truth-out.org/news/item/26244-mexico-researcher-raises-alert-about-environmental-risks-in-region-with-highest-concentration-of-wind-farms-in-latin-america

    Delingpole covers it:

    20 Sept: Breitbart: James Delingpole: Environmental Researcher: Wind Industry Riddled with ‘Absolute Corruption’
    Though Professor Mora is talking specifically about Mexico, what she says applies equally well to supposedly more transparent democracies such as Britain, Australia, the US, Canada and Denmark. The wind industry is necessarily one of the most corrupt enterprises on earth because it depends for its entire existence on government favours, backhanders, dishonest environmental impact assessments and on regulators turning a blind eye to the known health problems caused by wind turbine noise. Without crony capitalism, the wind industry simply would not exist…
    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/09/20/Environmental-researcher-wind-industry-riddled-with-absolute-corruption

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    pat

    despite the warnings, here’s Truthout a day later:

    18 Sept: Truthout: Chuck Collins: Beyond Divestment: Climate-Concerned Philanthropists Pledge to Move Billions to Wind and Solar
    As the United Nations Climate Summit in New York City approaches, efforts to address climate change through money-moving campaigns are growing…
    But it’s not just colleges and universities that are divesting. Pension funds, municipalities, philanthropies, and hospitals have joined in too—as well as individual investors…
    This past January, 17 foundations with combined assets of nearly $2 billion pledged to divest from fossil fuels and invest in clean energy as part of the Divest-Invest Philanthropy initiative. Since that time, dozens more have committed to do the same. Their names are scheduled to be released on September 23, during the United Nations Climate Summit…
    A number of studies indicate that divesting a portfolio from fossil fuels can be done without damaging financial returns (for example, see this analysis by the investment management firm Aperio Group ).
    In fact, the risky thing to do may be retaining investments in fossil fuels…
    http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/26287-beyond-divestment-climate-concerned-philanthropists-pledge-to-move-billions-to-wind-and-solar

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    pat

    while admitting “though its total greenhouse-gas emissions continue to rise, China has reduced the amount of carbon it generates per unit of gross domestic product by almost 20 percent and is expected to seek additional reductions”, deceptive as that statement might be, Bloomberg keeps up the pretense that China & US are saving the planet from CAGW:

    20 Sept: Bloomberg: David J. Lynch: U.S.-China Rifts on Hacking, Spying Put Aside for Climate
    In research laboratories on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean, more than 1,100 Chinese and American scientists are engaged in a joint program marrying public and private money and talent. Among the U.S. companies teamed with Chinese partners are Dow Chemical Co., Duke Energy Corp. and Ford Motor Co. …
    Partnership between the U.S. and China “will set the tone for the world,” Bill Gates, co-founder and former chairman ofMicrosoft Corp., told a recent meeting in Seattle of the Boao Forum for Asia, a Chinese nonprofit group…
    “They’re serious about climate,” former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who secured an earlier environmental partnership during the Bush administration, said in an interview…
    Still, this is no Manhattan Project. The research center’s five-year budget amounts to just $150 million, divided between American and Chinese money. The U.S. Energy Department is also kicking in $450 million for the Texas coal-gasification plant…
    Unless supplies of “low carbon or no carbon energy” are tripled or quadrupled, heat waves that now occur once every 20 years will become every-other-year phenomenon, said Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
    Earth’s temperature has already risen 0.85 degrees Celsius (1.53 degrees Fahrenheit) from the pre-industrial era and will reach a total increase of 4.8 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, more than twice the UN’s goal, he told the Boao Forum.
    “That will clearly lead to disaster,” Pachauri said.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-19/u-s-china-rifts-on-hacking-spying-put-aside-for-climate.html

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    pat

    19 Sept: Bloomberg: Brian K. Sullivan: The Earth Baked in Record Fashion This Summer
    Much of the talk in the eastern U.S. has been about how cool it’s been day after day this summer. It turns out that’s a topic that wouldn’t have come up in many other places in the world.
    According to the National Climatic Data Center, the Earth had its warmest June through August on record…
    U.S. ’Aberration’
    In the context of the world, the results in the U.S. were an aberration…
    If the last four months of the year rank within their top five warmest, 2014 will replace 2010 as the globe’s hottest year in records going back to 1880, Crouch (Jake Crouch, NCDC) said.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-19/the-earth-baked-in-record-fashion-this-summer.html

    19 Sept: Bloomberg: Eric Roston: The iPhone 6 Makes Climate Change Simple
    The iPhone 6 is the measure of all things, so we should measure all things by it.
    This would solve a huge, centuries-long problem: Too many ways to measure everything. There’s length, area, volume, weight, temperature, speed, economic value — and multiple ways to render each.
    For example, here is an overview of key climate change data, all measurements rendered in iPhone 6 units…
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-18/the-true-purpose-of-the-iphone-6.html

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    pat

    22 Sept: Australian: Ben Webster (The Times): World’s ‘carbon budget’ to be exhausted in 30 years, say climate scientists
    THE WORLD has already burnt through two thirds of its “carbon budget” and must impose drastic cuts in emissions to avoid a catastrophic rise in temperature, a study (in the journal Nature Geoscience) has found…
    Piers Forster, professor of physical climate change at the University of Leeds, said his “best guess” for the 10 years to 2024 was that the average temperature would rise by 0.4C, twice as fast as in any previous decade…
    Professor Forster said the rate of global warming could “rebound” from the apparent pause since the 1990s, meaning the increase over the next decade could be even larger than 0.4C.
    Scientists have tried to explain the pause by suggesting that the oceans have temporarily absorbed some of the heat.
    “If the world doesn’t warm as we expect, we climate scientists may have serious egg on our face. I would prefer that to be the case; but I fear the climate scientists may be right,” Professor Forster said.
    The study said global CO2 emissions had been rising by 2.5 per cent a year in the past decade. It concluded: “Stabilisation of global temperature rise at any level requires global carbon emissions to become eventually virtually zero.”
    David Reay, professor of carbon management at the University of Edinburgh, said:”If this were a bank statement, it would say our credit is running out.”…
    Christiana Figueres, the UN official who co-ordinates the international climate change negotiations, has played down the prospects of the Paris deal involving a country-by-country allocation of a global carbon budget.
    Instead, the deal is likely to be based on voluntary emission reduction pledges from each country, based on a system of defining fair contributions yet to be agreed
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/worlds-carbon-budget-to-be-exhausted-in-30-years-say-climate-scientists/story-fnb64oi6-1227066134220

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    pat

    West tells East thou shalt not develop! as for the undeveloped South…forget it.

    22 Sept: GMA: Reuters: Alister Doyle: China drives world carbon emissions to record high
    World carbon dioxide emissions will hit a record high this year, driven by China’s growth and keeping the world far off track from the deep cuts needed to limit climate change, a study said on Sunday.
    More than half of proven fossil fuel reserves may have to stay in the ground if governments are serious about a promise made in 2010 to limit a rise in average temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6F) above pre-industrial times, the Global Carbon Project report by leading research institutes said…
    Emissions of the main greenhouse gas rose 2.3 percent in 2013 to 36.1 billion tonnes, said the report, which was published in the journal Nature Geoscience.
    “A break in current emission trends is urgently needed,” according to the report by experts in Britain, Norway, Switzerland, Austria, Australia, Germany and the Netherlands…
    It projected that world emissions could reach 43.2 billion tonnes in 2019, with 12.7 billion from China alone.
    “China is taking the lead, but this is a global problem,” Corinne Le Quere, director of the Tyndall Centre at the University of East Anglia and a lead contributor to the report.
    Beijing argues that emerging economies need to burn more energy to help end poverty. That argument is losing credence because even its per capita emissions overtook those of the average EU citizen in 2013, the study said…
    The study said world emissions would have to fall by more than five percent a year to achieve the 2C goal…
    Such global cuts would be unprecedented.
    http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/380246/scitech/science/china-drives-world-carbon-emissions-to-record-high

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    pat

    42 pages: September 2014: Report: America’s Dirtiest Power Plants – Polluters on a Global Scale
    by Environment America Research & Policy Center
    In 2012, U.S. power plants produced more carbon pollution than the entire economies of Russia, India, Japan or any other nation besides China. In fact, the 50 dirtiest U.S. power plants alone – representing less than 1 percent of U.S. power plants – produced as much pollution in 2012 as the nation of South Korea (the world’s seventh leading emitter of greenhouse gases)…
    U.S. power plants are among the most significant sources of global warming pollution in the world…
    http://www.environmentamericacenter.org/sites/environment/files/reports/EA_Dirtiest_power_plants_scrn_0.pdf

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      In 2012, U.S. power plants produced more carbon pollution than the entire economies of Russia, India, Japan or any other nation besides China. In fact, the 50 dirtiest U.S. power plants alone – representing less than 1 percent of U.S. power plants – produced as much pollution in 2012 as the nation of South Korea (the world’s seventh leading emitter of greenhouse gases)…

      And generated two and a half times more power for consumption than in the ….. WHOLE of Africa.

      Tony

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        bobl

        If Obama is so worried then he should just order them turned off, he won’t mind that the whitehouse might end up burned for heating fuel come winter now will he ??? ….

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      the Griss

      ROFLMAO..

      Pollution. ????????????????????

      Every one of those stacks they show is STEAM !!! NOT POLLUTION !

      CO2 is invisible and IT IS NOT POLLUTION either !

      These environmental guys are demonstrating the absolute height of IGNORANCE !!!

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      David A

      What is carbon pollution. Thousands of peer reviewed reports in tens of thousands of experiments have demonstrated the known benefits of increased of CO2. None of the projected harms have been observed.

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    handjive

    theconversation asks a question:

    Ebola crisis in West Africa: where did all the development money go?

    https://theconversation.com/ebola-crisis-in-west-africa-where-did-all-the-development-money-go-31544

    John Kerry gives the answer:

    Kerry compares climate change to fight against Ebola and Isis as thousands march around world

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/21/-sp-climate-change-protest-melbourne-london-new-york-protest

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      Peter C

      where did all the development money go?

      Actually a fantastic question handjive, and not really answered in your web quotation.

      What does happen to all the billions of Development Money given to the Third World every year? Is there any accountability?

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    pat

    read for all the details, however speculative:

    22 Sept: Age: ABC budget cuts put news, current affairs programs in the firing line
    by Matthew Knott, Madeleine Heffernan
    The future of the ABC’s state-based current affairs programs and some of its radio shows is up in the air with the broadcaster consider dramatic cost-cutting proposals.
    The ABC is also reviewing the future of current affairs television program Lateline which is due to mark its 25th year on air next year.
    There is debate within the broadcaster about the need for a standalone late night news program following the advent of ABC News 24…
    Lateline is considered well resourced within the ABC – it has around 25 staff members including production staff – but has metropolitan ratings of around 200,000. This compares to 7.30 which can attract over 700,000 metro viewers in its prime time slot…
    The proposals are being driven by the spectre of federal government budget cuts expected to be detailed in the mid-year budget update later this year, but also the view within senior management that the ABC’s programming and structures need to be overhauled to cater for modern media habits…
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abc-budget-cuts-put-news-current-affairs-programs-in-the-firing-line-20140922-10k91v.html

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      Peter C

      The future of the ABC’s state-based current affairs programs and some of its radio shows is up in the air with the broadcaster consider dramatic cost-cutting proposals.

      Hooray!

      Hopefully Tony Jones and Q&A will go, along with Jon Faine!

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    pat

    check out the graph, with all the relevant figures:

    22 Sept: Australian: Sid Maher: Coal gloom coming from activists, not genuine analysts: miners
    MINERS say climate change cam­paigners are dressing up envir­onmental activism as fin­an­cial advice before the release of a global report (by Carbon Tracker Initiative) on the future of coal, which predicts thermal coal demand will peak in China by 2016…
    But Minerals Council of Australia chief executive Brendan Pearson said “these groups are ­activists, not analysts”.
    In the past year, the increase in coal demand from China had been 60 per cent bigger than the “entire production from solar and wind in the country’’, Mr Pearson said.
    The pessimistic view of the coal outlook by CTI contrasts with recent analysis by McKinsey and Co and the World Energy China Outlook, complied by Xiaojie Xu, head of the World Energy Divis­ion at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in Beijing.
    The McKinsey report, compiled in July, predicted compound annual growth in coal demand of 0.7 per cent from 2011-2030. Mr Xu predicted, also in July, that coal consumption in China would continue to grow at least until 2020 and that coal would still account for 66 per cent of electricity generation in China by 2020.
    Last week, China announced tougher regulations on dirty coal but Mr Pearson said this would actually shore up coal’s position as the new measures would favour better Australian coal…
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coal-gloom-coming-from-activists-not-genuine-analysts-miners/story-fn59niix-1227065855447

    for the numerically-challenged, CAGW-driven MSM, however:

    China Coal Peak Imminent Makes Coal Risky Investment: Study
    Bloomberg – ‎5 hours ago‎

    China sends a warning on the future of coal
    The Age-10 hours ago

    Report predicts China will hit peak thermal coal demand by 2016
    ABC Online-2 hours ago

    it’s one thing Fairfax being negative about Australian industry whenever their preferred party is not in power; however, ABC should take note of public broadcasters elsewhere, who usually support those who keep their economies going & tax revenues flowing. after all, it’s those taxes that pay for the public broadcasters!

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      the Griss

      If China did hit “peak coal usage in 2016″, that would mean a drop in the coal price, making coal fired electricity much cheaper. :-)

      Manufacturing can come back to the countries that used to be developed countries, as well as supply energy to developing countries.

      Mankind will ALWAYS need “stuff” that is made using solid, regular, dependable coal fired energy….
      (as opposed to the useless intermittent alternative energy non-supplies…)

      … and there are many large and developing countries just ready and raring for that big surge of useful “stuff”. :-)

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    cedarhill

    At least their in the right city for their new theme song. Change “ghost” to “ice” and you’ll have it:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1-NvLJFDsw

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    pat

    22 Sept: Telegraph: Emily Gosden: Prince Charles: climate change is the greatest challenge facing humanity
    “Even in a world full of daunting perils and crises, it is hard to imagine anything that poses a greater challenge and opportunity for humanity,” he will say.
    His comments come in an address to political and business leaders in New York ahead of major international climate change talks, convened by UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon…
    In a pre-recorded video address, the Prince shakes his head as he says: “We are running out of time – how many times have I found myself saying this over recent years?” …
    In his video, Prince Charles says the world cannot “delay, regroup, prevaricate or wait for more and better information” and warns that tackling global warming will require “an unprecedented transformation of our communities, societies and lifestyles”.
    He calls for renewable energy – such as wind farms and solar panels – to be “vastly scaled up”…
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/prince-charles/11110457/Prince-Charles-climate-change-is-the-greatest-challenge-facing-humanity.html

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    Greg Cavanagh

    I think this would be interesting, and I have no association to the author.

    http://www.fishpond.com.au/Books/Standard-Deviations-Gary-Smith/9781468309201?

    Standard Deviations
    Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics

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