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Paper suggests solar magnetic influence on Earth’s atmospheric pressure

 “…the role of the Sun is one of the largest unknowns in the climate system”

Meteorologists are already aware that changes in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) can affect the polar regions of Earth. Now, for the first time Lam et al report the magnetic field appears to influence atmospheric pressure in the mid latitudes. Lam compared the average surface pressure at times when the magnetic field is either very strong or very weak and found a statistically significant wave structure similar to an atmospheric Rossby wave. They claim to show that this works through a mechanism that is a conventional meteorological process, and that the effect is large enough to influence weather patterns in the mid-latitudes. The size of the effect is similar to “initial analysis uncertainties” in “ensemble numerical weather prediction” (which I take to mean “climate models”).

They are suggesting that small changes in this solar influence on the upper atmosphere could produce important changes through  “non-linear evolution of atmospheric dynamics”.

Jo suggests that IPCC-favoured climate models don’t include any solar magnetic effect at all, which is just one of many reasons why they don’t work.

The large scale wandering convolutions of the jet stream around the planet are Rossby waves (usually 4 – 6 in number). Some of these become very pronounced and detach into cells of warm or cool air.  Jet streams have been recorded traveling at nearly 400km per hour and the path of the jet stream is known to steer cyclonic storm systems in the air below.

Rossby Waves in the Polar Jet Stream

Abstract

The existence of a meteorological response in the polar regions to fluctuations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) component By is well established. More controversially, there is evidence to suggest that this Sun–weather coupling occurs via the global atmospheric electric circuit. Consequently, it has been assumed that the effect is maximized at high latitudes and is negligible at low and mid-latitudes, because the perturbation by the IMF is concentrated in the polar regions. We demonstrate a previously unrecognized influence of the IMF By on mid-latitude surface pressure. The difference between the mean surface pressures during times of high positive and high negative IMF By possesses a statistically significant mid-latitude wave structure similar to atmospheric Rossby waves. Our results show that a
mechanism that is known to produce atmospheric responses to the IMF in the polar regions is also able to modulate pre-existing weather patterns at mid-latitudes. We suggest the mechanism for this from conventional meteorology. The amplitude of the effect is comparable to typical initial analysis   uncertainties in ensemble numerical weather prediction. Thus, a relatively localized small-amplitude solar influence on the upper atmosphere could have an important effect, via the nonlinear evolution of atmospheric dynamics, on critical atmospheric processes.

 

Figure 1

The field significance is strongest in the Southern Hemisphere, but also high (< 5%) for all regions except the equatorial.

Figure 2 (Click to enlarge)

Intriguingly there is discussion of a “global electric circuit”

Figure 3. Our hypothesis is that the mid-latitude surface pressure is influenced by IMF By via a two-stage process. (i) As IMF By changes from dawnward to duskward, the electric potential difference between the ionosphere and the Earth’s surface, V, and the sea-level pressure p, decrease in the northern polar region; (ii) the mean zonal wind U at mid-latitudes increases resulting in an increase in the meridional wavelength (for simplicity labelled L in this figure; in text referred to as L ) of the stationary Rossby wave with an integer number of azimuthal waves m (at co-latitude θ and latitude  λ = 90°  – θ) The variations in V; p;U and L are reversed in the Southern Hemisphere.

Evidence for action via the global atmospheric electric circuit

The electric potential difference V between the ionosphere and the Earth’s surface can be decomposed into two components [6]:

The first term Va is driven by thunderstorms distributed around the globe that sustain a potential difference of 250 kV between the ground and ionosphere [14]. The second term Vi is driven by the solar wind which continually interacts with Earth’s magnetosphere via magnetic reconnection, driving the transport of plasma through the magnetosphere. This results in a dawn-to-dusk potential difference across the high-latitude polar cap ionosphere that depends on the IMF magnitude and direction [15]. The spatial variation of the solar-wind-driven ionospheric potential Vi is well understood [7, 8]. Figures S8(a)–(d) show its average configuration in corrected geomagnetic (CGM) coordinates for predominantly dawnward (By < 0) and predominantly duskward (By > 0) directed IMF for 5 < |B| < 10 nT. Taking the time-averaged difference of the vertical potential difference (3) between these two By configurations, we eliminate the potential Va due to the atmospheric thunderstorm-generated electric field which we assume to be independent of B to obtain:

where B+y corresponds to the By > 0 configuration and B configuration and B-y corresponds to the By < 0 configuration. ΔVNO is approximately circularly symmetric about the geomagnetic pole, negative poleward of ~ 74°N CGM latitude, positive poleward of 74°S CGM, and small elsewhere (figures S8(e) and (f)). ΔV-o is plotted in geographic coordinates in figures 2(g) and (h).

From the discussion:

Previously, proposals to link solar wind variations to significant weather or climate variability have been dismissed on the grounds that the magnitude of the energy change in the atmosphere associated with the solar wind variability is far too small to impact the Earth’s system. However, this argument neglects the importance of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics [20]. The amplitudes of the IMF-related changes in atmospheric pressure gradient are comparable with the initial uncertainties in the corresponding zonal wind used in ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) [21] of ~ 1 m s-1. Such uncertainties are known to be important to subsequent atmospheric evolution and forecasting [22]. Consequently, we have shown that a relatively localized and small-amplitude solar influence on the upper polar atmosphere could have an important effect, via the nonlinear evolution of atmospheric dynamics on critical processes such as European climate and the breakup of Arctic sea ice [23].

Next time modelers tell us that they can’t produce the modern warm period without a major effect from CO2, just smile and remind them that their models don’t include solar magnetic effects, nor any potential lunar forcing, so it’s not surprising that they can’t predict our climate.

 

h/t The Hockeyschtick, and to Tallbloke

References

M M Lam, G Chisham and M P Freeman 2013 The interplanetary magnetic field influences mid-latitude surface atmospheric pressure Environ. Res. Lett. Volume 8 Number 4 045001 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/045001 OPEN ACCESS full PDF available.

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145 comments to Paper suggests solar magnetic influence on Earth’s atmospheric pressure

  • #

    As I read this article I wondered if this is genuine rocket science, even thou there ain’t no rockets involved. I will have to study and think on this for a long time before I may have a clue. But I expect it is just one more black hole of science that the top climate scientists are clueless about.


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      Ian

      It’s research such as this that gives the lie to “the science is settled” and and shows that “consensus from 97% of climate scientists etc., etc….” is an ill-advised comment as it excludes the probability of new knowledge “moving the goalposts”. Genuine scientists know both that “you don’t know what you don’t know” and that when you get some new information, the more you know the less you know as each bit of new info nearly always generates many more questions than it answers. It is stuff like this research that means genuine scientists will always be genuine sceptics. Not deniers but sceptical that everything that can be known about the climate is known when quite clearly it isn’t.


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        Ian

        Apologies for this post script. i should also have said that most who post here are genuine sceptics in that they are believers in climate change but agnostics about the cause. This, of course, is a genuinely scientific attitude unlike that shown by most posting on warmist sites such as SkepticalScience and the ludicrously named, Open Mind


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        Brett

        As the comedian Dara O’Briain said:
        “Science knows it doesn’t know everything; otherwise, it’d stop. But just because science doesn’t know everything doesn’t mean you can fill in the gaps with whatever fairy tale most appeals to you.”


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    • #
      Winston

      black hole of science

      And just like a black hole, as climate scientists approach it, time itself slows down relative to the infinite mass of knowledge potentially opening up to them.

      It will therefore seem like an eternity, from our skeptical perspective, for climastrologists to take this information on board, while for them it is evolving a little to quickly for comfort, relativistically speaking.


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      • #
        KinkyKeith

        Nice little heartwarming metaphor there.

        KK


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        ExWarmist

        Very clever.


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      • #

        Scientific Black Hole = knowledge goes in and can’t get out.

        The practical application is that the closer you get to a scientific black hole, the more you think you know but less you actually know. The black hole sucks the actual knowledge out of you but, unfortunately, leaves the pretense of having knowledge (aka belief) that you know intact.


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      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Say what???

        I thought they were already in the black hole and had some magic means of getting their mischief out into the world to cause trouble. Isn’t magic what they do? It certainly isn’t science. ;-)


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        • #

          No actual information passes through the event horizon. All that passes is analogous to pink noise. This pinkness is a pretense of coherence with reality. It is bias in the noise distribution with an extremely low probability of even being accidentally coherent with reality.

          As a consequence, is not knowledge that leaks from a scientific black hole. It is the pretense of having knowledge. Those who skim close to that black hole have the pretense preferentially replacing actual knowledge and they thereby become “true believers”. The primary symptom of which is their inability to be dissuaded from their ***true*** belief by actual knowledge, evidence, or demonstration.


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    • #
      Eddy Aruda

      I ran into a climate scientist once. He tried to pass himself off as a rocket scientist and attempted to segue from climate science into rocket science.

      I stopped him cold and pointed at two cows in the field. I asked him why one cow crapped twice a day and the other four? He told me he didn’t know.I asked him why, if he didn’t know sh!t, I should listen to him lecture on rocket science? ;-)


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      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Eddie,

        Perhaps you shouldn’t listen to him about rocket science. But not knowing s..t is certainly a qualification for climate science. Invite him to comment here and let’s see what he has to say. ;-)


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  • #
    ursus augustus

    What with ignoring the water cycle and its implicit latent heat transfers ignoring this just steers IPCCstream climate “science” into the realms of ‘the ether’, ‘humours’ and beyond to fire, earth, air and water. Sorry water’s out isn’t it?

    How difficult is it when considering a rotating planet with an orbiting moon, in turn orbiting a star (which spins) in conjunction with a number of other planets and other matter in the solar system and which also exhibits a whole series of oscillating whenomena from the tides through to the Rossby waves I in the sea, the atmosphere and now the magnetoshprere, to build a model which is based on oscillating elements. You know the old fourier series like they do for ocean spectra, vibration and sound analysis and all sorts of other stuff out there in the mainstream? What voltage does insight really need to be to get that sort of idea to jump an IPCC synapse or two?


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    • #
      KinkyKeith

      Ursus major,

      “Ignoring the water cycle and its implicit latent heat transfers”

      A very obvious one that has big impact on energy balances.

      If you find a nice cloud moving overhead, not too high up, it is so easy to see it as light and fluffy and inconsequential;

      especially if you are a politician or a tenured Climate Scientist.

      The reality is far different.

      Hold your thumb up at arms length to the cloud and imagine a cube of that fluffy white stuff the size of the tip of your thumb.

      That cube has a mass of between one and two tonnes, all of which was lifted from ground level or ocean top to its’ place above.

      Of course the water vapour in those clouds may have gotten their by some magical process and the heat saved may have then been stored deep in the oceans.

      Only a climate scientist would know for sure.

      KK :)


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      Reinder van Til

      Yep, right from the start I never trusted this “science” of the IPCC. The moment politics got involved I knew it was propaganda and not science anymore. I know from my meteorology as hobby that the weather and climate is very complicated. Too complicated to simply put the blame on CO2 and the human race for the small warming since the little ice age. What the IPCC does is just kindergarten fairy tales. And it is an outrageous shame they do it. A generation of people have now grown up believing that the weather is something to fear and not enjoyed. That our climate is something to fear and not enjoyed. That CO2 is a pollutant instead of a molecule essential to life. The fundamental views of the IPCC and their political affiliates are a crime against humanity. They should be accused accordingly in a Nuremberg trial.


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      Manfred

      The complexity of interconnected oscillation you allude to is baffling to many, and climastrologists in particular. A univariable system based on CO2 is is not only far easier to model (irrespective to any model validity), it is easy to tax, politicise, fit to current warmunist ecotheology, and above all else, remain consistent with the babylonian mindset – a mindbendingly stupid arrogance that we can actually change the climate or modulate sea level in any meaningful way. Of course we cannot. But that’s not THE point is it?


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  • #
    Keith L

    OK. So we save the planet by putting a tax on solar flares and solar wind.
    What is the big deal?
    I am sure Bigger Government is still the solution…


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  • #
    Yonniestone

    This is very interesting as last night watching “Air crash investigations” the show highlighted how “Microbursts” or “Storm bursts” that went relatively unknown for decades as the cause of many airplane crashes at lower altitudes, the Doppler Radar was used to identify these storms and apparently they had the information there all the time, just had to know what your looking for I guess.
    As I said to a warmist recently you can’t just take one part of science to explain a complex system, that’s just Epidemiology.


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  • #
    Dave

    Just a few quick questions,

    What height or altitude do these Rossby waves operate in?
    Would they have an influence on the Noctilucent Clouds?


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      tom0mason

      A look at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Earth and that Noctilucent Clouds happen at about 80km (mesosphere/upper stratosphere).
      And looking at the introduction of http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469(1968)025%3C0984%3APRWPVT%3E2.0.CO%3B2 for Rossby waves. Rossby waves can happen in the upper stratosphere during the winter, and the mesosphere/thermosphere at other times.
      It would appear that it is a very possible yes,


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      Reinder van Til

      Some explanation about the Rossby waves. In my region of the world they are known for low pressure areas or depressions to follow the same path sometimes a couple of weeks or even longer. Where the counterpart of the low pressure areas or depressions the high pressure areas also have a “bias” to stay or to be formed again in the same areas. The entire system slowly moves westwards in my region of the world. So, if I see that depressions have a “bias” to go to Poland/Belarus for a while then I know later they will form a bias to be above my head for a while. But then I cannot follow this “prediction” schedule too long, because Rossby waves can change their wavelength and amplitude so that the “bias” for depressions and high pressure areas can last shorter or longer. Sometimes Rossby waves can last pretty long. If I am lucky it means a warm summer with high pressure areas having a “bias” to be above southern Scandinavia or Germany with a trough above Ireland. This means lasting South to East winds which will transport warm air from the continent to The Netherlands and Belgium. The summer weather here is only temporarily gone by thunderstorms after a new high pressure area comes and stays at the same place as the former one. If I have bad luck it can mean the opposite where a trough has a bias to be very near to me and high pressure too far away. Then I have unsettled and cool weather all summer. In a medium or average summer I experience both phenomena. The same applies to cold, average or mild winters here in my region. What I get depends on Rossby waves.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rossby_wave


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  • #
    Maverick

    This post reminds me of one of the central themes of Nicholas Taleb’s book The Black Swan:

    you don’t know what you don’t know

    I think skeptics of any subject matter innately understand this, however the “science is settled” folks don’t seem to recognise this concept.


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  • #
    Anton

    Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere don’t worry me, but someday the fossil fuel is going to run out. What then? Supply of solar electricity is weather-dependent but demand for electricity is less flexible, so a form of energy storage is needed. Batteries don’t look like the solution. What we need to do is set up our own carbon cycle: use sunlight to generate electricity that can be used to power a facility that reduces carbon dioxide to carbon, and locate the facility next to a carbon-burning power station with carbon dioxide capture. The energy storage is then just a large heap of carbon sitting between the two buildings, exactly as heaps of coal sit next to power stations today. The size of the carbon heap and the fullness of the carbon dioxide storage tanks fluctuate with supply and demand of electricity. An only-partial reduction of the carbon to flammable organic compounds can be contemplated if mass storage is deemed safe, and to fuel cars. Thermodynamic inefficiency of the cycle is no problem – you just have greater solar electric input.

    This has surely been proposed before, so is there a flaw?


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    • #
      AndyG55

      “but someday the fossil fuel is going to run out”

      So far there is no indication that this is the case.

      The “known reserves” have generally been increasing at a faster rate than the usage increase.


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      AndyG55

      And under NO CIRCUMSTANCES should we try to reduce the level of CO2 in the atmosphere.

      To do so would put all life on Earth in jeopardy.


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      Graeme No.3

      Sunlight (and wind) are low density energy sources i.e. you need a lot of area to produce much power. Carbon based sources are energy rich. See the solar powered cars in the Darwin to Adelaide race. Large solar cell area to transport a small weight. All the support buses and trucks use conventional fuel as they have to do more work.

      Converting CO2 back to Carbon can be done, it just uses more energy than you get from burning the fuel in the first place, so the solar energy gathering plants would occupy huge areas. Such experiments on this usually use concentrated solar heat. There are other options. The CSIRO in Australia is working on ammonia generation/decomposition cycle. Chemical ‘batteries’ e.g. vanadium based, and even the old pumped storage approach. The latter is already in use and works well, but you lose 25-30% of the energy in the cycle.

      As for fossil fuels didn’t you know that oil run out? I am not sure whether it was in 1974, 1982, 1990, 1997 or 2005 but surely one of those predictions must be right. I mean, so many pundits making authoritative predictions and many of them well known in AGW circles today.


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  • #
    AndyG55

    Wow, solar magnetic fields affect the atmospheric pressure.

    Atmospheric pressure controls the transfer of energy in the system.

    To quote Crowded House…”Its only Natural…” !!!!


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  • #

    Were we not told a few years ago that “the sun has played no part in recent warming, now shut up and go home”?. The more I see articles like this, the more I believe that science and politics should maintain a healthy disconnect, each informing the other but with no debt owed. I never understood how the sun which lets face it, is the nexus of our existence could so readily be dismissed despite the huge part it has always played. Why did so few scientists stand up for the sun?.


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    • #
      King Geo

      It’s the Sun Sun Sun!!! – not CO2. I am sure Alf Garnett would say “It’s so bleedin obvious” – but not so it seems to the decision makers in the EU who have sent this once great Economic Powerhouse to rack & ruin during the past decade believing CO2 causes CAGW. The “EU De-carbonisation Revolution” is like the UK’s “Great Plague” of the mid 1600′s – such is the magnitude of the suffering.


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    • #
      jorgekafkazar

      As Leif interminably points out, TSI remains relatively flat over each solar cycle. However, uv, a small component of TSI, does not and apparently causes large fluctuations in the ionosphere. This, coupled with variation in magnetic fields, may have a very large effect. The science is not ‘settled.’

      The fact that the ionosphere is very tenuous may be misleading. It is impossible for a photon to pass through the ionosphere without hitting at least one ion.


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  • #
    PeterS

    I’ve seen research on the solar wind, sunspot and magnetosphere dynamics, and their interactions with the earth’s magnetosphere and atmosphere. It appears there’s a lot more to it that meets the eye, so to speak. Certainly far more than the CO2 nonsense. I would not be surprised that the earth’s climate is significantly influenced by the Sun in many ways. Of course the AGW alarmists couldn’t care less as they can’t tax the Sun.


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    Ian

    Apologies as this is off topic but interesting. Posters here may recall John Brookes a warmist who may or may not still post here. I was looking at SkS who using the thumbs up/down approach “To minimise the destructive impact of comment trolls Skeptical Science is engaging in a social experiment. You, gentle readers, are the participants. The experiment is a University of Queensland research project, titled “Using comment ratings to facilitate moderation”

    John Brookes wrote this as a post to SkS
    “Having been a regular poster at Jo Nova’s blog, where the thumbs up/down have been there for a while, I can say I quite like them. A quick scan for lots of thumbs down leads me to comments that are more interesting. It also gave me a goal for a while – to try and get as many thumbs down as I could.

    But all skeptic blogs seem to be, dare I say, less skeptical these days. Too many gullible skeptics…

    Not sure what if anything can be done with tossers like Brrookes


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    • #

      If that’s the same person then my attempts gentile moderation have gone with the Dodo. There’s just no getting through to the truly brainwashed is there.


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    • #
      Carbon500

      Thanks Ian, I haven’t bothered looking at SkS for quite a while.
      I find myself wondering how they could use the ‘thumb up or down’ idea to generate spurious claims.
      Let’s see now. Ah yes – here’s one way.
      Suppose ten people read a given article or comment, and they all give it a thumb up.
      Ten visitors, ten thumbs up. There. The public are 100% behind us on this!


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      tom0mason

      Not exactly a scientific method as early poster to any blog will, quite naturally, acquire more votes as more eyes have seen their post. Late posters will always have less votes as the audience moves on to new topics/blogs.
      Of course this assumes that the blog and the posters occur at the peak (or just before) of public viewing.


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    • #
      AndyG55

      If its ‘our’ John Brookes, then anyone who gives even the slightest credence to ANYTHING he says, marks themselves as a total moron.


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      • #

        He seems a tad more reliable than the bloke who often graces these pages with fantasies of having successfully sued people, fantasies about having been a science advisor to Margaret Thatcher, and fantasies about being a member of the House of Lords.

        But we all get to choose whether we want to be sceptical or not, I guess.


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  • #
    Mattb

    Does this paper have any authors or a place of publication? Apologies if I’m just blind.


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  • #
    tom0mason

    But, but…the settled science

    You can not be serious!
    A magnetic planet bathed in electrically charged particles from a nearby magnet star has it’s atmosphere affected by their mutual interaction. Next you’ll say that this planet’s unusually large satellite affects its weather, or that in this solar system, the largest planets’ movement around that star profoundly affect the star’s irradiance.

    Oh Rossby waves, the UN-IPCC will not like this one little bit! :-)


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  • #
    incoherent rambler

    I am sure there is the odd person who believes that the AGW theory is sound. I believe the AGWers, without conceding, are now shifting the goal posts so that they may continue the political agenda of fleecing taxpayers.
    AGW is now just a political tool.
    I am not sure how this can be addressed. Scientists (even real ones), thanks to AGW, now have a tarnished reputation. Few in public office believe them.


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    • #
      MemoryVault

      I am not sure how this can be addressed.

      In a word, ridicule.
      Ridicule the bastards until they are too ashamed to show their faces in public.

      A good place to start (because they are in a position to do something), are members of the new government. Every time the idiot Greg Hunt opens his mouth with some new, stupid utterance on CAGW, email the other members of the Coalition and tell then how stupid it makes them look.

      Deep down, most of them know already – they’re just hoping nobody is noticing.
      Make sure they know people ARE noticing.

      Every time Flim-Flammery and his ilk spout crap, email the Chancellor of their university and let them know how stupid it makes them and their faculty look. If its Steffen of Karoly or any of the high-flyers in the CSIRO or BoM, write to the (Coalition) Minister responsible for their department, and point out how stupid their senior staff are making them look.

      If enough people are prepared to hammer home the message – “this is making you look stupid” – to the people responsible, eventually embarrassment and shame will become the overriding emotion.

      Abbott’s sacking of Fammery and the closing down of the Climate Commission was nothing more or less than Abbott distancing himself, and his government, from what had become a serious and ongoing embarrassment.

      .
      It works.


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      • #
        Safetyguy66

        Id actually pay to be transformed into a fly on the wall of the Greens party room for a few weeks. It must be like Hitlers bunker in the last days of WW2. A bunch of sad, deluded idiots lamenting their situation and trying to convince themselves they are right, despite not having a cracker of substance to their alarmist nonsense.

        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCfb33V_cjA


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      Safetyguy66

      They have been moving the goal posts since global warming became climate change, became climate instability, keep stretching that frame and eventually who knows, the models may fit the picture.


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  • #
    Mark D.

    An electric universe? Who would have thunk it. Energy transfer that isn’t radiative? Who would have thunk it.

    Well understood climate? We are but babes in the wilderness.


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    • #
      MemoryVault

      Careful Mark.

      You are dealing with well-intentioned, good-hearted people who, nonetheless, still believe “climate” has something to do with fondling Stephan-Boltzman’s black and grey balls until they get warm. Or something.

      I’m not sure they are anywhere near ready for the stark reality of an electric universe.

      .
      Baby steps, Mark. Baby steps.


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  • #
    Reinder van Til

    The pause in global warming baffles climate modellers. A short and good analysis of new data about the pause in the global “warming” by 1000frolly. Video is almost 7 minutes long.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-L1uB2yYOOE


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  • #

    Spooky, but I was writing something similar just yesterday and Rog at Tallbloke’s Talkshop has kindly published it. He’ll be inserting links to this blog in the article.

    http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/10/09/tim-spence-order-from-chaos/


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  • #
    Paul in Sweden

    Jo! my head hurts… If you or Dave could break this one down, I would appreciate it. -Paul


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  • #
    TomRude

    I could not find the authors and reference to the paper? Thanks

    By the way this would make Leroux’s work on circulation extremely relevant to the debate.


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    Roy Hogue

    This may be redundant to point out. But meteorologists have been saying the climate change alarm is phony for years now. And good for them.

    All this magnetic field stuff looks highly theoretical at this point but it’s certainly no worse off for evidence than global warming.


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    Roy Hogue

    As a pilot I’ve been well aware of the jet stream and it’s effect on both high altitude flight and the weather. I’m not surprised by 400 km/hr speeds because that’s about the 250 MPH maximum I was used to seeing (a little over 215 knots, 1 nautical mile = 1.15 statute miles). A big jet doing about 350 – 400 knots true airspeed against this kind of headwind will have a ground speed of 135 – 185 knots. Pretty poor performance and why they choose altitudes carefully to get the benefit of a tailwind going east and avoid as much of the penalty of a headwind as possible going west.

    If you had asked me I would have said the jet stream has a lot of influence on the weather.

    Whats surprising is the wave idea and the direct linkage to the magnetic field surrounding the earth. I wonder how well this theory will hold up over time when others start to look into it — and it should be examined skeptically like all such theories.


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    janama

    well here we go – the BoM has been predicting a record October temperature record today.
    The highest was on the 13th in 2004 at 38.2C. The 11th was 27.4C, the 12th was 34.8, the 13th 38.2C and the 14th 33.7C.

    So today the 9th will be 39C, yesterday was 21.9, the day before that was also 21.9.

    Lets see what happens – I suspect this is another BoM beat up.


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      Yonniestone

      Yeah the hypes wearing pretty thin with me but just a thought, what time of day are these temperatures taken? 6am to 6pm or are these goalposts changed to suit the beat up as well.
      Also is the overnight low temp taken into consideration for an averaging?
      All I know is it’s been pretty cool down here.


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      Eliza Doodle

      There are total fire bans in place across much of NSW for Thursday.


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      Eddie Sharpe

      High winds are driving the fire danger with very hot, very dry air expected to reach 39C early pm but with be short lived with cooler air expected from around 4pm.


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        Safetyguy66

        Entering summer in Australia and people are hitting the big red panic button that its getting warm.

        Warm in Summer in Australia…. haaayuck Whoda thunk it Cleetus? Next it will be tremors on the San Andreas Fault Line…. Were DOOOOOOMED I tells ya! DOOOOOOMED


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    handjive

    An anonymous commentator left this at tom nelson:

    Earth stimulation forecast until Sunday: strong quakes 7-8+ R (in places where MASS animal stimulation observed) and or volcanic eruptions and/or severe rain/hail/snow storms, due to stimulating space electricity shown partially in the photo: http://www.tesis.lebedev.ru/en/upload_test/files/kp_20131009.png

    http://www.tesis.lebedev.ru/en/magnetic_storms.html

    Ionospheric stimulation measured by satellites: Solar flares trigger earthquakes – Jain, R., Physical Research Laboratory.
    EACH of the 682 >4.0 EARTHQUAKES under study was preceded by a SOLAR FLARE of B to X class by 10-100 hrs.
    http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUSMIN33A..03J


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    edwina

    This might be allied to some evidence sunspots influence weather/climate to a degree so far ignored.

    P.S. a question I have had for ages. Where did the “97% of scientists etc, ” come from? When was the survey held? How many took part? What were their specialties?


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    jiminy

    Thanks for the link. An interesting read. Must think about it.
    Stranger ideas have proven useful.


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      AndyG55

      Once you realise that there are MANY, MANY things we don’t know about climate and how it varies and operates, the less likely you will be to believe the “arguement from ignorance” put forward for the CAGW hypothesis.

      (ie we don’t know what it is therefore it must be CO2)


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    Albert

    I suspect by the mid-century co2 will need to be released from his cell on death row


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    Safetyguy66

    Fascinating stuff, thanks Jo


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    pat

    how convenient for maximum MSM propaganda worldwide – personalised “finish lines”!

    9 Oct: Bloomberg/Businessweek: Alex Morales: New York Set to Reach Climate Point-of-No-Return in 2047
    Temperatures in New York are increasing, and after 2047 they won’t return to the historical average of the past one and half centuries, according to a study today in the journal Nature…
    “The results shocked us: regardless of the scenario, changes will be coming soon,” Camilo Mora, a geographer at the University of Hawaii at Manoa and lead author of the study, said in a statement. “Within my generation, whatever climate we were used to will be a thing of the past.” …
    Finish Line’
    “Conservation practitioners take heed: the climate-change race is not only on, it is fixed, with the extinction finish line looming closest for the tropics,” Eric Post, a professor of biology at Pennsylvania State University, wrote in an accompanying article in Nature…
    Fourteen researchers at the University of Hawaii and Japan’s University of the Ryukyus contributed to the study, which used projections from 39 computer models that analyze multiple climate variables, including air temperature, precipitation, evaporation and the acidity of the oceans…
    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-10-09/new-york-faces-climate-point-of-no-return-in-2047-report-says

    10 Oct: SMH: Nicky Phillips: New climates for Melbourne, Sydney predicted
    But when do we stop talking about breaking (temperature) records and admit we’ve got a radically different climate?
    In Melbourne, a new study suggests, it will be 2045. In Sydney that time will come in 2038…
    Climate scientists have created an index of the year when the average climate of any given region on earth will likely push outside the extreme records experienced in the past 150 years should greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated…
    The index, published in the journal Nature, found if emissions continued under a business as usual scenario, countries in the tropics would be the first to enter new climate territory, around 2038…
    The index projections, created from 39 global climate models from 12 countries, used the minimum and maximum temperatures between 1850 and 2005 to define the boundaries of historical variations in climate at any given location…
    Australian climate scientist Sarah Perkins, from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, said the study’s results were in line with the latest global projections.
    But she expressed reservations about the study’s time frames, saying climate models were not designed to provide projections for such precise times and locations such as a year or a city.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/new-climates-for-melbourne-sydney-predicted-20131009-2v91j.html


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    incoherent rambler

    Delingpole has a good read at this link.

    One of the comments was a standout to me.

    bspin
    NEWS-FLASH—–
    Greenpeace has just Issued a statement saying that most Species Alive Today will be dead within 100 years.
    Most Scientists agree (97%) but the other 3% asked “What about their Off-spring”?
    A Greenpeace spokesman said “What’s that got to do with It”
    (This Is sarcasm)
    Think about It.


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      Brian G Valentine

      Greenpiece found out that Russian authorities have less tolerance for “climate activism” than they thought they ought to have.

      Whoever put oil rig activists up to this is probably putting out indignant sounding press releases, although is spared from life in a Murmansk detention cell


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          Brian G Valentine

          The unusually harsh charges prompted protest rallies across the world over the weekend, with celebrities such as actor Jude Law and fashion designer Vivienne Westwood joining in.

          Well hell – that proves their innocence right there


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          Mattb

          “They’ve now also busted them for drugs”.. or at least medical supplies.


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            MemoryVault

            .
            That would depend entirely on where the drugs/medical supplies were found, and who found them.

            Given that the “finding” was done by half a dozen or so Russian officials, all of whom can and will corroborate each others testimony, probably with suitable video footage, I wouldn’t hold out much hope for the “medical supplies” alibi, regardless of the actual truth.

            Hell, one doesn’t have to go to Russia to encounter this novel interpretation of “law emplacement”.


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              AndyG55

              A salutary lesson to activists.

              Pick your target with great care !!!


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              Mattb

              “Given that the “finding” was done by half a dozen or so Russian officials, all of whom can and will corroborate each others testimony, probably with suitable video footage, I wouldn’t hold out much hope for the “medical supplies” alibi, regardless of the actual truth.”

              Just wait until they find the pro-gay promotional material. Lucky they were not on the Rainbow Warrior.


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            Dave

            It wasn’t me?

            “Caught trying to sneak past Dubai Airport customs with hashish hidden in his shoes, an Afghan drug trafficker claimed he was in someone else’s shoes when he was hauled before the court. His plea: The drug-stuffed footwear wasn’t actually his as he had swapped his own warm ones with the ones of a compatriot shivering from cold just before boarding a flight to Dubai. “And you were sure his shoes would fit you just perfectly?” the judge enquired during the trial, before eventually delivering a fitting verdict last month — 10 years in prison followed by deportation.”

            Yeah MattyB – good excuse, medical.

            I didn’t do it. What a joke.


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    Robber

    But, but, the experts have modelled all this, and they know precisely what is going to happen.
    From today’s Australian: >http://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/temperature-tipping-point-25-years-away/story-e6frgcjx-1226735655369
    Can’t predict next month’s weather, but we know to the year when different cities will reach their tipping point. And not even a statement saying they could be wrong. This is science, or models?


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    Brian G Valentine

    I can’t decide, if the perturbation they describe has the possibility of being “singular” – that is, grows in time (secular variation).

    I would have to see the remainder of this


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    pat

    9 Oct: NYT: JUSTIN GILLIS: By 2047, Coldest Years May Be Warmer Than Hottest in Past, Scientists Say
    The research comes with caveats. It is based on climate models, huge computer programs that attempt to reproduce the physics of the climate system and forecast the future response to greenhouse gases. Though they are the best tools available, these models contain acknowledged problems, and no one is sure how accurate they will prove to be at peering many decades ahead…
    The models show that unprecedented temperatures could be delayed by 20 to 25 years if there is a vigorous global effort to bring emissions under control. While that may not sound like many years, the scientists said the emissions cuts would buy critical time for nature and for human society to adapt, as well as for development of technologies that might help further reduce emissions…
    The Mora paper is a rarity: a class project that turned into a high-profile article in one of the world’s most prestigious scientific journals…
    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/10/science/earth/by-2047-coldest-years-will-be-warmer-than-hottest-in-past.html?_r=0

    from WUWT:

    World to roast by 2047, film at 11
    This paper is funded by a grant/cooperative agreement from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Project R/IR-25PD, which is sponsored by the University of Hawaii Sea Grant College Program, SOEST, under Institutional Grant No. NA09OAR4170060 from NOAA Office of Sea Grant, Department of Commerce.***
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/09/world-to-roast-by-2047-film-at-11/#comment-1442570

    ***Dept of Commerce is appropriate.


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    pat

    for those who think UK Daily Mail is sceptical, here they are in full alarmist mode, with these excerpts ending the article. they even manage to make it seem Judith Curry is sort of endorsing the study:

    10 Oct: UK Daily Mail: James Nye: Apocalypse Now: Unstoppable man-made climate change will become reality by the end of the decade and could make New York, London and Paris uninhabitable within 45 years says new study
    Judith Curry, a Georgia Institute of Technology climate scientist who often clashes with mainstream scientists, said she found Mora’s approach to make more sense than the massive report that came out of the U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change last month.
    Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann said the research ‘may actually be presenting an overly rosy scenario when it comes to how close we are to passing the threshold for dangerous climate impacts.’
    ‘By some measures, we are already there,’ he said.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2451604/Apocalypse-Now-Unstoppable-man-climate-change-reality-end-decade-make-New-York-London-Paris-uninhabitable-45-years-says-new-study.html?ito=feeds-newsxml


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      AndyG55

      Darn .. anyone got some funds to invest in sandwich board writings ???

      There must be money to be made! :-)

      JB, Matty, Gatesy, Sheldon…. come on dudes, here’s your opportunity !!!


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    janama

    Well after all the hype Sydney peaked at 37.6 – .6C below the record and 1.4C below the 39C predicted with great fanfare.
    It’s now down to 36.5.


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      Backslider

      Sydney peaked at 37.6

      Watch the records very carefully, becoase if you look away they will nudge that up to at least 38C (that’s what they did everywhere to get “The Angry Summer”).


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      Dave

      BOM has already got Sydney Airport listed as follows:

      It’s listed 37.8C at 02:38pm 10/10/2013 here already: http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/observations/sydney.shtml

      It’ll be 38 plus by Friday.


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        AndyG55

        I wonder which jet they were using ?


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        janama

        A friend posted on facebook “It’s 4:30 and it’s 37.6..” Yet I have screen grab from Weatherzone (who get their data directly from BoM) showing 36.5C.


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          Dave

          The temperature in Sydney reached 37.3C just after 3pm (AEDT) on Thursday for the city’s third hottest October day since records began 154 years ago. The bureau said some temperature records were likely broken on Thursday, but it would not be clear until Friday.

          Funny that BOM data site is still saying 37.8C, yet have released that to News outlets it was 37.3C? That’s three different data facts in less than 8 hours. I call C*r*a*p.

          Now for the 3rd hottest October day for 154 years:
          1. 14/10/2006 37.3C
          2. 13/10/2004 39.1C
          3. 30/10/1958 37.6C

          Where do these Bureau people come from – it should be 55 years? They are lying outright to the media to generate scare campaigns. Good grief – it was 39.0C on 31/10/1987 in Adelaide. You can manipulate data to sound anything you want it to be. But this BOM release is absolute Bulltish.


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    pat

    Independent finds a stronger headline:

    9 Oct: Independent: Steve Connor: Unprecedented shift in temperature will begin to hit tropics in less than a decade
    Areas with highest densities of wildlife and most vulnerable human populations will be hardest hit, says study
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/unprecedented-shift-in-temperature-will-begin-to-hit-tropics-in-less-than-a-decade-8869608.html


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      Eddie Sharpe


      tropical regions are expected to cross the threshold into unprecedented climate change”

      Wait a minute, isn’t CC already supposed to have been unprecedented ? Now they’re telling us we’ll have to wait, how long ?

      “A “meta-analysis” of future climate predictions culled from 39 global computer models used in climate research found “

      Ah well there we go then. ‘meta-analysed’ rubbish , it’s still rubbish.

      It is a use of culled I’d not noticed before. Do you thing the researchers might have misunderstood their instructions, about culling ? One can see why that might encourage them into denial.


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        You could read the article and understand what they are describing as “unprecedented”.

        I’m not aware what they are saying is controversial – perhaps you can explain? Is it the fact that CO2 traps heat that bothers you? The fact that CO2 in the atmosphere has increased to levels not seen for a million years? Or the fact that this extra CO2 is obviously trapping additional heat and that that extra heat causes climate change?


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    handjive

    UN-IPCC/LNP Settled Climate Science Idiot Doomsday Lotto
    (because only a gullible, ignorant idiot would believe them)

    6th October 2013- Sir Bob Geldof: ‘All humans will die before 2030
    10 October 2013-The Conversation: Climate change ‘unprecedented’ by 2050: study
    10 October 2013- The Age: In Melbourne, a new study suggests, it will be 2045.
    In Sydney that time will come in 2038.

    Only billions of taxpayer dollars spent on Direct Action by the CINO’s will save the planet now.
    (CINO: Conservative In Name Only)


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      Dave

      handjive,

      But Camilo said:

      “Countries first impacted by unprecedented climate change are the ones with the least economic capacity to respond.”

      Then he said:

      “I predict that in about a decade, Kingston, Jamaica, will probably be off-the-charts hot — permanently, Singapore in 2028. Mexico City in 2031. Cairo in 2036. Phoenix and Honolulu in 2043 as global warming takes hold.”

      So the first countries in order are Kingston, Singapore, Mexico, Cairo, Phoenix and then Honolulu? Singapore is third world???? This guy is on drugs or has been talking to Tim Flannery.

      Here’s the new advisor of WORLD CAGW – Mr. Camilo Mora.

      Let’s look at Dr. Camilo Mora.

      1. Dr. Mora is not a climate scientist
      2. Research interests: biogeography, threats to biodiversity, global conservation assessments and methods for macroecology.
      3. Excellent communicator. 24 minute You Tube video that brings a laugh.
      4. Mora C, Rollo A, Tittensor D (2013) Comment on ‘Can we name Earth’s species before they go extinct?‘.
      5. MoraLab Interactive Map – Great stuff Camilo, click and find out how long you’ve got.
      6. Mora C, Frazier AG, Tong EJ, Longman RJ, Kaiser LR, Dacks RS, Walton MM, Fernandez-Silva I, Stender YO, Anderson JM, Sanchez JJ, Ambrosino CM, Giuseffi LM, Giambelluca TW (2013) “The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability“.
      7. Mora C, Rollo A, Amaro T, Baco AR, Billett D, Bopp L, Chen Q, Collier M, Danovaro R, Gooday AJ, Grupe BM, Halloran PR, Ingels J, Jones DOB, Levin LA, Nakano H, Norling K, Ramirez-Llodra E, Ruhl HA, Smith CR, Sweetman AK, Thurber AR, Tjiputra JF, Usseglio P, Watling L, Wei CL, Wu T, Yasuhara M (in press, October 16, 2013) “Biotic and human vulnerability to projected changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the 21st century”.
      8. Leung T, Mora C, Klaus R (in press) “Patterns of diversity and distribution of aquatic invertebrates and their parasites”. No Link?
      9. Mora C, Zapata F (2013) “Anthropogenic footprints on biodiversity“.
      10.Mora C, Jimenez J, Zapata F (2000) Pontinus clemensi (Pisces: Scorpaenidae) at Malpelo island, Colombia. “New specimen and geographic range extension.

      I have missed out on another 29 other publications because they’re sort of fishy stories, and he seems to have graduated from Peck’s Anchovy Paste to CAGW expert in less than less than 2 years?

      He IS THE NEW expert Al Gore with a date, the new Tim Flannery with proof, he is the David Attenborough of the NEW GAIA. He is definitely on the gravy train.

      A very fishy story, but don’t look at his mentor, Ransom Aldrich “Ram” Myers, Jr. (13 June 1952 – 27 March 2007) was a world-renowned marine biologist and conservationist. An amazing coincidence huh?


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    incoherent rambler

    Breaking News
    Scientists have discovered the universe is running out of energy. In only 10e24 years from now it will be a cold nothingness.
    Scientists say they are 950% confident that a global tax on earths energy supplies is the only we can delay this impending catastrophe.


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    The Watson’s are on top of this and I totally agree to this presentation.

    I have the [proof of showing that the Moon has a Positive magnetic Face, facing Earth and this is WHY it always has its lowest orbital oscillating orbital position within the Northern Hemisphere. In 2005, the averaged altitude was 356,395km at an angle to the Equator of 16deg.33min.28sec. and after just 14 days it was within the Southern Hemisphere at 12deg.56min.17sec. at an altitude of 406,750km.

    This shows that the Earth’s Magnetosphere was influencing the Moon’s oscillating orbital pattern and drawing the Moon closer to the Earth’s surface while within the Northern Negative Hemisphere and when arriving to the Southern Hemisphere, was being repelled because of the TWO positive Magnetic forces pushing the free to move Moon away from the surface of Earth telling science that there is indeed something going on here that is totally being overlooked by the IPCC.

    The 9.1 year cycle can be associated directly to the seasonal changes.:the Swarbe Effect, however, this effect is associated to the fact that the Earth orbit is going through a changed magnetic involvement, as it is currently experiencing, was switched on the 22 December 2012, into a Positive Magnetic field zone, and this is the PRIME cause for seasonal changes, “Climate Change,” or what ever you wish to say is changing.

    If you are game to look at my book:Climate Change-Explained by Magnetism;ISBN9780646477220 (2009) vintage, you will see how and why these Electromagnetic influences directly affect our climate, for this is happening; and it has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the humans breathing out Carbon Dioxide, and more information is shown to show that Gravity is the Magnetic Influence” and dominates this effect, that has a distribution factor, that determines past and future, natural cycles of Planet Earth.
    Hope you all enjoy.

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