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The US Election — spot the numbers mismatch where 50:50 = 2 to 9?
Posted By Joanne Nova On November 7, 2012 @ 3:47 am In Global Warming | 125 Comments
Voting is now underway in all states of the US including Hawaii and Alaska.
Something very strange is going on with money. Normally bets are a decent indicator, but in the US right now as people roll out to vote, polls are largely at 50:50, but betting odds of 2-9.
The bet-takers own website explains that Obama’s odds of victory fell to a low of 2-9, with 75 percent of the action coming in for the incumbent Obama. CSM explains that given the odds, bettors were only taking in 20 cents for every euro wagered, plus the original stake, meaning Paddy Power wasn’t paying out a longshot. On the flip side, unpaid Romney bets held odds of 7-2.
It’s so strange, one betting site in Ireland (Paddy Power) has already paid out $750,000 to Obama bettors. That was Monday.
What really matters in the land of non-compulsory voting, is who will turn up.
In 2008 Democrats had a feverish enthusiasm for hope and change, and we know how well that worked out. American citizens were so impressed they launched a whole new party to take the Obama-plan and do the opposite.
With so much enthusiasm on the not-Obama side of the debate, those betting numbers don’t add up, indeed the mismatch is so large, it appears to be a rare chance of arbitrage. Could it be the strange end-point of media group-think and confirmation-bias?
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