Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction appears to be getting noticed (finally). Recently, the Telegraph reported on The man who beats the Met Office. But, some people (especially outside the UK) don’t seem to realize Corbyn has been doing this for a long time. He started placing bets on his predictions way back in 1990, and set up his his long range forecasting business in 1995. His accuracy during a 6-month period of 2008 at predicting extreme weather events in narrow time windows was audited at 85%. WeatherAction sells forecasts that are 30, 45, and 60 day advance notices. Could you imagine our BOM giving us warnings now about a storm or flood on, say, February 23 – 25th 2011? Try to picture the weather girl suggesting anything like that in the local Channel Nine Weather Update.
The BOM in the UK have said they don’t do seasonal forecasts (“BBQ-summer” and “mild-winters” no more). Yet, here is Piers, still putting his name to forecasts, not just of a seasonal nature across an entire country, but for particular dates and particular regions.
If the CSIRO or BOM were really interested in predicting the climate, they could, say, pay to fly in a consultant who had a far better record than they do, and immediately set up an Australian branch. The NHMRC is prepared to spend $350,000 of special initiative funding to Identify connections between climate, and the health and well-being of Indigenous people in the tropical north of Australia. Can’t a government department find a similar amount to kick start a step-wise improvement in our long range forecasts? Surely the health and well being of our farmers (not to mention their finances and tax contributions) would be improved if the meaning of the “long” in long-range-forecasts was extended beyond next Wednesday.
Corbyn sometimes get’s it completely wrong (it is the “weather” after all), but make no mistake: He has literally been beating the Met Office at their own game for years. He was so good, the bookies stopped him placing bets on the weather, because they were trying to use BOM forecasts, and he kept winning.
“In 4,000 Weather Test Bets over 12 years with William Hill, Weather Action forecasts made a profit of some 40% (£20,000). The Odds were statistically fair and set by the Met Office before being shortened by William Hill by a standard 20%; the results were then provided by the Met Office for William Hill to settle each bet. Piers Corbyn was excluded by the bookies from such account betting in 2000.
Bets and notional bets can be used to estimate Forecasting Power which is the % profit (or negative for losses) on stakes that would come from bets placed at fair odds. For general long range forecasts for the three most extreme recent seasons, namely Summer 2007, Summer 2008 and Winter 2008-09 The Met Office long range forecast Power is minus 100% (ie Met Office long range forecasts failed in all three cases) and WeatherAction (Solar Weather Technique) scores about plus 500%.” [From WeatherAction]
The BOM use models tuned with a focus on CO2. Corbyn prefers solar magnetic effects, and gives CO2 no influence at all.
This week is another test of his long record
On Dec 12 this year, he made several very strong specific predictions — namely that severe weather events would occur around the world on 25 – 27 and 29 – 30 December. So far it appears he’s done extremely well on the blizzards of NE USA (aka Snowmageddon II). He toned down his UK warning a week ahead (though Charles de Gualle airport shut due to snow, ice and a lack of deicing fluid), and definitely didn’t get a heatwave in Brisbane (which was 25 C and wet on Dec 27).
For people who want more information about how and why he makes his forecasts, see Piers’ explanation here: Solar Weather Technique of long range weather and climate forecasting. Specifically, see this video.
The Predictions were Strong:
“There will be many dangerous weather events around the world in this period”, said Piers Corbyn astrophysicist of WeatherAction long range weather & climate forecasters. “Snow/blizzards/rain (where appropriate) and winds will be much more severe than standard meteorology will predict from 2 days ahead in these periods”
“For NE/E USA we predicted (12-12-10)
Very Major snow and blizzard events will strike NE & E USA in a double hit centered around 25-27th & 29-30th Dec; One of the most significant snowfall/blizzard periods in NE & east USA for decades.”“For Britain/Europe, NE/East USA & East Queensland Australia we have specific long range extreme weather event warnings which we first issued end Nov / early December. The extremes to come are a consequence of Jet stream blockings and changes in both hemispheres caused by predictable solar-lunar effects”.
“For South/East Queensland eg Brisbane region of Australia 25-31 Dec we predicted (11-12-10) HEATWAVE maybe peaking at 36C to 38C around 28th but date unclear.
For Britain and Europe we stated in forecast words & maps:
Two waves of blizzards and drifting snow especially 25th-27th & 29/30th largely for East/South Britain and for a large part of NorthWest Europe (along with thundersnow) around South Scandinavia, Benelux, N Germany, North Poland and perhaps parts of the Baltic States. AND that thundersnow is likely in (North) Italy in this period also.
Piers commented on 23 Dec re Xmas “Our expectation of snow in the UK on Xmas Day is at the starting edge of this Weather period so there are uncertainties. We notice short range forecasts have been changing a lot for Xmas Day which is probably a reflection of increasing solar factors which will upset standard forecasts in this period. We still expect snow in parts of the UK on Xmas day but note that the general centre of this activity appears interestingly to be shifted somewhat Eastward in Europe so snow amounts on Xmas day itself in the UK will not be large.
On climate change issues, Piers commented:
“Standard meteorology doesn’t know what is hitting the world this Northern hemisphere winter and will continue to make serious errors throughout. They will significantly underestimate the ferocity of events especially of snow amounts in our forecasted extra activity / red warning periods, and at other times may make some overestimates.
“Their forecasts for the cold / snowy parts of Europe and USA will continue to predict temperatures to return closer to normal in about a week’s time but such forecasts will fail and generally be extended to further ahead on a daily basis until one of our less cold / milder periods is reached”.
“Standard meteorology models ignore solar and lunar factors and are associated with the failed science and falsified data of the CO2-based warmist view of climate and are bound to fail again and again.
“This winter is like the battle of Stalingrad in the ‘Climate war’. It will be long and hard and the public will suffer until the failed pseudo-science of man-made climate change – which become like a religion – is defeated; and instead available proven solar-based advances in forecasting science are applied to reduce misery and save lives”.
Got a good photo of your local “climate”?
If people suffering extremes of weather would like to send me a photo or two, I’d most appreciate it. It’s nice if I can use (and credit) shots from readers, and I’ve no doubt there are great shots out there of floods, blizzards, and piles of snow. Heatwave and drought shots also accepted. 🙂
UPDATE:
Piers has commented today on his blog to explain his recent hits and misses. He mentions that his Australian forecasts are only a trial, and that he doesn’t provide as much spacial resolution for the US as he does for the UK and Europe. There is no world BOM. Again, Piers is competing in his own class.