Like or Dislike: 0  0

Like or Dislike: 0  0

http://www.palisad.com/co2/ocean.html

This shows the average daily incident energy for each 10 degree slice of latitude and for each month. It also shows the average ocean surface temperature, for the same times and spaces. All of the data is averaged from satellite data accumulated over the last 25 years. The ocean surface temperature data originates fon GISS (Hansen et all) and the solar irradiation is from the University of Colorado which is adjusted for Sun angles and the length of the day for each slice.

Notice the lag from min/max incident energy to min/max surface temperature. Also notice the relatively large ocean temperature swings, over 10C in some latitude slices! The ocean is responding very quickly to changes in the incident energy and not the decades that are needed to explain AGW.

George

Like or Dislike: 0  0

Like or Dislike: 0  0

Like or Dislike: 0  0

However to come to the more significant issues. The temperature sensitivity of Earth is a measure of how much one extra watt/sqM will raise the temperature. I used a value of 0.266C whcih I got by differentiating Stefans law for a temperature of 255K (the emission temperature for Earth claimed by the AGW believers). I did also find a number of other values on the web used by various AGW advocates ie: Ramanathan (1988) 0.24K, Soden and Held (2006) 0.25K, Hansen et al (1984) 0.26K, Bony et al (2006) 0.263K, Colman (2003) 0.30K, Kiehl (1992) 0.305K. As you can see my value is quite representative of the other values. The sensitivity 0.266 K/watt/sqM can also be exprssed in reciprocal form as 3.76 watts/sqM/K. So if the temperature rise is 0.4K (or 0.4C) the xtra heat retained is 0.4 * 3.76 = 1.5watts/sqM. I probably expressed this badly in what I posted because I obtained the number by rationing it from the 3C rise ie: if 3C equates to 11.3 watts then 0.4C equates to 11.3 * 0.4/3. I should have expressed it simply as temperature chage times sensitivity.

There is another way to look at all this. Since 1900 we have had 0.45 doublings of CO2. The temperature rise attributed to this rising CO2 is 0.4C. We are told by 2070 the CO2 level will have reached 560 ppm which is double the 1900 level. That means there are 0.55 doublings to go and we are toldthis will give a further rise of 3C. Hmm, the first 0.45 doublings gives 0.4C and the next 0.55 doublings gives 3C. How is that possible? Surely one would expect that it would only give 0.4 * 0.55/0.45 = 0.5C (simple ratio). The explanation I have heard is that there is massive stored heat which will cause further warming even if the current CO2 level did not rise further. In short the climate system has a long time constant. If that were the case what would be happening is that the current CO2 level (with feedbacks)would be retaining much more heat than the temperature rise suggests and this heat would be going into slowly heating up the planet. However the largest heat sink on the planet has to be the oceans and as the analysis shows the oceans simply do not have enough heat capacity for this exlanation to be credible. I have now seen a report by Roger Pielke saying the same thing. There is no stored pipeline of energy.

Like or Dislike: 0  0

One query: this maths of yours “11.3*.4/3 = 1.5 ” does not compute with me. Have I missed something?

I think we all suspect that IPCC have played fast and loose with the maths. But to nail them, we have to be very, very sure – and clear, so that others can follow the maths. Otherwise Schmidt of RC, who is a mathematician, can run rings round us.

I might finally go back to Monckton’s analysis of the IPCC maths, and might now be able to understand it and check it myself! I’ve already used it in my primer. Monckton answered every single challenge of Schmidt, and since Schmidt never deigned to respond, and the issue is crucial, I am certain that Schmidt could not respond, that Monckton was correct.

Like or Dislike: 0  0

Let’s go back in time in live to harmony with Nature, when typhoid, diphtheria, cholera, and plague were truly King

You have to keep in mind that your average city office worker is traumatized by traffic, train timetables, and by their computer and their telephone on a daily basis, but they have no experience of any major life threatening epidemic (yes I know that Swine Flu is the latest “pandemic” BS, but I mean a real epidemic rather than media/WHO beat-ups). Most of them don’t consciously understand that they are traumatized.

Human brains are designed to react to what it hurting me now, not what once hurt great grandpa. These people are operating at an emotional level, and then back-rationalising their emotional decisions to convince themselves they have thought about it. The Al Gore’s of the world know how to tap into that energy and channel it.

Like or Dislike: 0  0

Lucy there is an error in what you wrote. The relationship between co2 concentration and retained heat is logarithmic not linear.

I would argue that we don’t know the real relationship and both the logarithmic and the linear estimates are guesswork. Some people prefer one, some prefer the other.

Like or Dislike: 0  0

Like or Dislike: 0  0