Comments on: Shock: Global temperatures driven by US Postal Charges http://joannenova.com.au/2009/05/shock-global-temperatures-driven-by-us-postal-charges/ A perfectly good civilization is going to waste... Fri, 28 Feb 2020 15:08:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4 By: Beatsme http://joannenova.com.au/2009/05/shock-global-temperatures-driven-by-us-postal-charges/#comment-1193606 Beatsme Sat, 01 Dec 2012 02:16:20 +0000 http://joannenova.com.au/?p=1949#comment-1193606 I think people should think deeply the main renson of global temperatures rise. I think people should think deeply the main renson of global temperatures rise.

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]]> By: About Peer-reviewed Dogmas, or 'Meet The Peeritarians' | Omnologos http://joannenova.com.au/2009/05/shock-global-temperatures-driven-by-us-postal-charges/#comment-1028684 About Peer-reviewed Dogmas, or 'Meet The Peeritarians' | Omnologos Mon, 02 Apr 2012 06:04:29 +0000 http://joannenova.com.au/?p=1949#comment-1028684 [...] (this in response to yet another tired thread full of “but the findings of so-and-so have not been peer-reviewed!“) [...] [...] (this in response to yet another tired thread full of “but the findings of so-and-so have not been peer-reviewed!“) [...]

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]]> By: plusafdotcom http://joannenova.com.au/2009/05/shock-global-temperatures-driven-by-us-postal-charges/#comment-1024640 plusafdotcom Tue, 27 Mar 2012 05:45:21 +0000 http://joannenova.com.au/?p=1949#comment-1024640 great site and great discussion. my simple little engineering-trained brain took this approach several years ago... look at the Vostok core data. every hundred or so thousand years, there's an Ice Age. if you look at "where we are on that curve now," as someone pointed out here long ago... we're coming up to the time when we should be expecting and planning for the Next Ice Age. MMGW may be forestalling its onset! so, if the MMGW folks can't give us a REALLY good explanation of what caused ALL of the prior Ice Ages, the Vostok graph should be much scarier than GW. (global warming, not Buah... :) ) oh, simple me... great site and great discussion.

my simple little engineering-trained brain took this approach several years ago…

look at the Vostok core data. every hundred or so thousand years, there’s an Ice Age.

if you look at “where we are on that curve now,” as someone pointed out here long ago… we’re coming up to the time when we should be expecting and planning for the Next Ice Age. MMGW may be forestalling its onset!

so, if the MMGW folks can’t give us a REALLY good explanation of what caused ALL of the prior Ice Ages, the Vostok graph should be much scarier than GW. (global warming, not Buah… :) )

oh, simple me…

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]]> By: Saint http://joannenova.com.au/2009/05/shock-global-temperatures-driven-by-us-postal-charges/#comment-65573 Saint Thu, 15 Jul 2010 01:03:35 +0000 http://joannenova.com.au/?p=1949#comment-65573 One thing I should point out, Matt, is that you shouldn't get so caught up in prophesying. People following such promises of money and power are the cause of stock market crashes (as well as the people who are luring them.) Outside of the developed world, their will be much demand, and little supply, so don't even kid yourself that it will be cheaper outside of the Western World. (I say the Western World because a majority of people here seem to be from elsewhere than the US.) In the Eurasian sector of the developed world and other developed lands, it is difficult to say. Governments in Europe and other shadows of Babylon will do there best to support the technology, and this will undoubtedly add some sort of cost to solar panels. (Like when a government in a third world country raises the price of corn, only to find that no one will buy it, and the store owners are selling it for its normal price to the black market, or when they try to lower it, and find almost all of it bought up, then sold by interlopers for its normal, higher price because they want to make some extra money.) And no, it won't cheapen. It is not popularity that makes a product cheap, particularly when it comes to power. (The increase in oil prices should tell you so.) It is innovation that makes a product cheap. The computer became cheaper DESPITE popularity, because ways to produce computers became more cheap and efficient to run, thus driving the supply up and the cost down. Solar panels will ONLY fall in price if solar panels are easy to produce. You fail to take into account the most basic economic principle that even a 9th grader (I'm in highschool still, and let me tell you, freshmen aren't the sharpest tools in the shed) could recite to you. Remember the point of this article, that their are hidden processes at work, and correlation is not causation. One thing I should point out, Matt, is that you shouldn’t get so caught up in prophesying. People following such promises of money and power are the cause of stock market crashes (as well as the people who are luring them.)
Outside of the developed world, their will be much demand, and little supply, so don’t even kid yourself that it will be cheaper outside of the Western World. (I say the Western World because a majority of people here seem to be from elsewhere than the US.) In the Eurasian sector of the developed world and other developed lands, it is difficult to say. Governments in Europe and other shadows of Babylon will do there best to support the technology, and this will undoubtedly add some sort of cost to solar panels. (Like when a government in a third world country raises the price of corn, only to find that no one will buy it, and the store owners are selling it for its normal price to the black market, or when they try to lower it, and find almost all of it bought up, then sold by interlopers for its normal, higher price because they want to make some extra money.)

And no, it won’t cheapen. It is not popularity that makes a product cheap, particularly when it comes to power. (The increase in oil prices should tell you so.) It is innovation that makes a product cheap. The computer became cheaper DESPITE popularity, because ways to produce computers became more cheap and efficient to run, thus driving the supply up and the cost down. Solar panels will ONLY fall in price if solar panels are easy to produce. You fail to take into account the most basic economic principle that even a 9th grader (I’m in highschool still, and let me tell you, freshmen aren’t the sharpest tools in the shed) could recite to you. Remember the point of this article, that their are hidden processes at work, and correlation is not causation.

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]]> By: Matt S. http://joannenova.com.au/2009/05/shock-global-temperatures-driven-by-us-postal-charges/#comment-58901 Matt S. Tue, 22 Jun 2010 06:32:37 +0000 http://joannenova.com.au/?p=1949#comment-58901 Good comments... however, just for now, lets make a few adjustments. First of all, many grid tie inverters come with mppt algorithms, so you can junk you mppt cost even though it would be a small advantage to have lots of them. The advantage would not merit the cost. Second of all, you didn't do your own math right. 4750/600 is approximately 8, not 80. Next item is that many of these panels are going to public scaled installations. As solar power becomes more popular, grid tie inverters will cheapen. 3 phase motor drives do essentially the same thing, and can be purchased for around $200 per kilowatt. Next item is that regarding global warming, the united states cost of installation etc. is not the primary factor. World wide, the installation cost will be much lower, and even more attractive because in many places, grid power is way over priced. Next item to think about is that many power consumptions could get by primarily on day-time power without grid connection... like charging electric automobiles. So yeah, you have some points here, no, they don't seem to carry enough weight to reverse the inevitable solar power takeover. Matt Good comments… however, just for now, lets make a few adjustments.
First of all, many grid tie inverters come with mppt algorithms, so you can junk you mppt cost even though it would be a small advantage to have lots of them. The advantage would not merit the cost. Second of all, you didn’t do your own math right. 4750/600 is approximately 8, not 80. Next item is that many of these panels are going to public scaled installations. As solar power becomes more popular, grid tie inverters will cheapen. 3 phase motor drives do essentially the same thing, and can be purchased for around $200 per kilowatt. Next item is that regarding global warming, the united states cost of installation etc. is not the primary factor. World wide, the installation cost will be much lower, and even more attractive because in many places, grid power is way over priced. Next item to think about is that many power consumptions could get by primarily on day-time power without grid connection… like charging electric automobiles. So yeah, you have some points here, no, they don’t seem to carry enough weight to reverse the inevitable solar power takeover.

Matt

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]]> By: Bernd Felsche http://joannenova.com.au/2009/05/shock-global-temperatures-driven-by-us-postal-charges/#comment-52862 Bernd Felsche Tue, 25 May 2010 03:42:05 +0000 http://joannenova.com.au/?p=1949#comment-52862 I should have noted that the installed cost per watt is lower for a larger system. But it is unlikely to be less than $40/W for even a <em>very large</em> domestic system. Costs are dominated by labour and electrical safety when matching PV to internal use and the grid. I should have noted that the installed cost per watt is lower for a larger system. But it is unlikely to be less than $40/W for even a very large domestic system.

Costs are dominated by labour and electrical safety when matching PV to internal use and the grid.

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]]> By: Bernd Felsche http://joannenova.com.au/2009/05/shock-global-temperatures-driven-by-us-postal-charges/#comment-52861 Bernd Felsche Tue, 25 May 2010 03:29:08 +0000 http://joannenova.com.au/?p=1949#comment-52861 Those panels seem to have an (effective) efficiency of just 6.5% (60W from.95m^2 @ 1000W/m^2 and 25 °C). In my neighbourhood, I get about 6700MJ/m^2 of sunlight onto a horizontal surface every year, <em>measured</em> at a nearby agricultural research station. The panel efficiency would then result in about 400MJ produced by each panel over the whole year; or about 112 kWh; which at current prices is worth about AUD$20 domestically. Which doesn't quite pay back the USD$59 (say AUD$75) in 3 years. <em>Sounds good so far.</em> <strong>But</strong> the hidden costs are in MPPT (maximum power point tracker - that presents an optimum load to the panel so that maximum electrical power can be extracted), AC conversion and synchronisation as well as installation and certification costs. The minimum-buy of 10 panels requires a similar number of MPPTs in order to provide a nominal peak of just 600W. (The real peak could be 30% higher under a clear sky with optimum orientation on a cold day.) End-user costs for MPPT's vary from about $200 up; but in this case, one needs a high-voltage version (60+V) so you're looking at about double that, per panel. You can run them in parallel but you will get very much less than optimum power when any panel of an array is even partially shaded/dirty. 10 such panels require between 1 and 10 MPPTs. The greater the number, the higher the harvested energy and the lower the suceptability to shade and faults. The lowest-cost option would be to run 5 parallel strings of 2 in series. One MPPT. Electrical authorities and installers may object though, as more than 120V is potentially exposed on the roof. So 2 MPPTs is much more attractive. What is then also needed is a grid-connection module (to convert the output from the MPPT's into synchronised grid AC) that's approved by your power supply utility. It'll be about $1000 in cost. Other installation costs include suitable roof mounting brackets, building authority approval and inspection; and electrical installation.I'd estimate that at $2000 if you're really lucky to have a roof with optimum orientation and suitable supporting structure. Installed cost minimum becomes $750 (panels) + $1000 (MPPTs) + $1000 (grid connect) + $2000 (physical installation and electrical connect) ... say AUD$4750. for a 600W system. <strong>The installed cost is $80/W</strong> or in terms of electricity <strong>payback</strong> of $200/year; <strong>almost 24 years</strong>. Which of course will never happen because panels will wear out (drop markedly in efficiency) in 10 years. There are also operational costs which include regular cleaning and electrical inspections; as well as an increase in insurance as fire brigades will let the house burn down in daylight instead of trying to get into the electrified roof space. Those panels seem to have an (effective) efficiency of just 6.5% (60W from.95m^2 @ 1000W/m^2 and 25 °C).

In my neighbourhood, I get about 6700MJ/m^2 of sunlight onto a horizontal surface every year, measured at a nearby agricultural research station. The panel efficiency would then result in about 400MJ produced by each panel over the whole year; or about 112 kWh; which at current prices is worth about AUD$20 domestically. Which doesn’t quite pay back the USD$59 (say AUD$75) in 3 years.

Sounds good so far.

But the hidden costs are in MPPT (maximum power point tracker – that presents an optimum load to the panel so that maximum electrical power can be extracted), AC conversion and synchronisation as well as installation and certification costs. The minimum-buy of 10 panels requires a similar number of MPPTs in order to provide a nominal peak of just 600W. (The real peak could be 30% higher under a clear sky with optimum orientation on a cold day.) End-user costs for MPPT’s vary from about $200 up; but in this case, one needs a high-voltage version (60+V) so you’re looking at about double that, per panel. You can run them in parallel but you will get very much less than optimum power when any panel of an array is even partially shaded/dirty.

10 such panels require between 1 and 10 MPPTs. The greater the number, the higher the harvested energy and the lower the suceptability to shade and faults. The lowest-cost option would be to run 5 parallel strings of 2 in series. One MPPT. Electrical authorities and installers may object though, as more than 120V is potentially exposed on the roof. So 2 MPPTs is much more attractive.

What is then also needed is a grid-connection module (to convert the output from the MPPT’s into synchronised grid AC) that’s approved by your power supply utility. It’ll be about $1000 in cost.

Other installation costs include suitable roof mounting brackets, building authority approval and inspection; and electrical installation.I’d estimate that at $2000 if you’re really lucky to have a roof with optimum orientation and suitable supporting structure.

Installed cost minimum becomes $750 (panels) + $1000 (MPPTs) + $1000 (grid connect) + $2000 (physical installation and electrical connect) … say AUD$4750. for a 600W system.

The installed cost is $80/W or in terms of electricity payback of $200/year; almost 24 years. Which of course will never happen because panels will wear out (drop markedly in efficiency) in 10 years.

There are also operational costs which include regular cleaning and electrical inspections; as well as an increase in insurance as fire brigades will let the house burn down in daylight instead of trying to get into the electrified roof space.

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]]> By: Matt S. http://joannenova.com.au/2009/05/shock-global-temperatures-driven-by-us-postal-charges/#comment-52827 Matt S. Mon, 24 May 2010 22:54:40 +0000 http://joannenova.com.au/?p=1949#comment-52827 Solar power is now publicly available at $1/watt http://www.wholesalesolar.com/products.folder/module-folder/kaneka/kaneka60.html This panel can pay itself back in 2 to 3 years, and you can buy it right now. I have been telling people, carbon dioxide induced climate change is not a threat because the natural best choice for power is solar. This $1/watt panel is just the beginning. Panels will become cheaper and more efficient still. Stop believing that global warming is a threat. Thats Bowsheet. Don't let the government pass stupid emissions bills. They are just trying to steal money by digging themselves into the power business. global warming is so damned dead!! Solar power is now publicly available at $1/watt http://www.wholesalesolar.com/products.folder/module-folder/kaneka/kaneka60.html

This panel can pay itself back in 2 to 3 years, and you can buy it right now. I have been telling people, carbon dioxide induced climate change is not a threat because the natural best choice for power is solar. This $1/watt panel is just the beginning. Panels will become cheaper and more efficient still. Stop believing that global warming is a threat. Thats Bowsheet. Don’t let the government pass stupid emissions bills. They are just trying to steal money by digging themselves into the power business.

global warming is so damned dead!!

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]]> By: James R http://joannenova.com.au/2009/05/shock-global-temperatures-driven-by-us-postal-charges/#comment-50992 James R Mon, 17 May 2010 01:16:35 +0000 http://joannenova.com.au/?p=1949#comment-50992 Correlation does not imply causation! Correlation does not imply causation!

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]]> By: Steve E http://joannenova.com.au/2009/05/shock-global-temperatures-driven-by-us-postal-charges/#comment-34089 Steve E Mon, 01 Mar 2010 21:09:56 +0000 http://joannenova.com.au/?p=1949#comment-34089 Joanne, I love the illustration. I'm in financial services. The story we always told was how the price of butter in Bangladesh predicted the future return of the S&P 500. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/09/20/butter-in-bangladesh-predicts-the-stock-market.aspx You're right it's easy to build an in sample model that accurately describes the sample. The real test is how it does out of sample. Can it make a prediction and have that prediction hold up to the scrutiny of observation? It doesn't happen in the complex multi-factor world of securities markets. Is climate so much simpler that the models can work there? I haven't seen any evidence yet that suggests it's so. Joanne,

I love the illustration. I’m in financial services. The story we always told was how the price of butter in Bangladesh predicted the future return of the S&P 500.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/09/20/butter-in-bangladesh-predicts-the-stock-market.aspx

You’re right it’s easy to build an in sample model that accurately describes the sample. The real test is how it does out of sample. Can it make a prediction and have that prediction hold up to the scrutiny of observation? It doesn’t happen in the complex multi-factor world of securities markets. Is climate so much simpler that the models can work there? I haven’t seen any evidence yet that suggests it’s so.

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]]> By: PhilJourdan http://joannenova.com.au/2009/05/shock-global-temperatures-driven-by-us-postal-charges/#comment-24662 PhilJourdan Tue, 12 Jan 2010 21:37:42 +0000 http://joannenova.com.au/?p=1949#comment-24662 "*(As a curious aside, the Forever stamps may have been the US Government’s most successful investment tool in recent times, gaining 14% in value since 2007, while the Dow and everything else, lost over 40%. Thus proving that the US Federal Reserve could better maintain US purchasing power parity if they switched the world’s Reserve Currency from US Dollars to “Forever Stamps”. )" Damn! And here I was sitting on a bunch of cheap stocks! I should have moved my money! “*(As a curious aside, the Forever stamps may have been the US Government’s most successful investment tool in recent times, gaining 14% in value since 2007, while the Dow and everything else, lost over 40%. Thus proving that the US Federal Reserve could better maintain US purchasing power parity if they switched the world’s Reserve Currency from US Dollars to “Forever Stamps”. )”

Damn! And here I was sitting on a bunch of cheap stocks! I should have moved my money!

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]]> By: Saint http://joannenova.com.au/2009/05/shock-global-temperatures-driven-by-us-postal-charges/#comment-24151 Saint Sat, 09 Jan 2010 03:55:09 +0000 http://joannenova.com.au/?p=1949#comment-24151 Well, I think its fairly clear in certain ancient religious documents that the future is not something one can prepare for. "God destroys the plans of man." Well, I think its fairly clear in certain ancient religious documents that the future is not something one can prepare for. “God destroys the plans of man.”

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]]> By: Sanjeev http://joannenova.com.au/2009/05/shock-global-temperatures-driven-by-us-postal-charges/#comment-24150 Sanjeev Sat, 09 Jan 2010 03:50:52 +0000 http://joannenova.com.au/?p=1949#comment-24150 Has anyone considered dimensionality of human observations?? For example if we had sixth sense, say that of sensing 'Magnetic field' whole world would have been a different scene...I pity the people ruining their present times by trying to prepare for the 'future' which they CAN know only so 'LITTLE'....God bless mankind... Has anyone considered dimensionality of human observations?? For example if we had sixth sense, say that of sensing ‘Magnetic field’ whole world would have been a different scene…I pity the people ruining their present times by trying to prepare for the ‘future’ which they CAN know only so ‘LITTLE’….God bless mankind…

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]]> By: Sanjeev http://joannenova.com.au/2009/05/shock-global-temperatures-driven-by-us-postal-charges/#comment-24147 Sanjeev Sat, 09 Jan 2010 03:40:14 +0000 http://joannenova.com.au/?p=1949#comment-24147 What we respond today to the reality, forms the basis of 'Truth' tomorrow. What we respond today to the reality, forms the basis of ‘Truth’ tomorrow.

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]]> By: Saint http://joannenova.com.au/2009/05/shock-global-temperatures-driven-by-us-postal-charges/#comment-23674 Saint Wed, 06 Jan 2010 03:35:24 +0000 http://joannenova.com.au/?p=1949#comment-23674 KDK, "‘wonderful’ Henry Ford" I congratulate you on putting "wonderful" in quotes. Henry Ford was a creep. Matt, You rock. Though I personally am pretty sure that even sudden climate changes won't have a profound impact on much. "Consider the lilies of the field. God clothes them and takes care of them,..." explains why it takes so much work to garden and keep the li'l buggers alive (I myself am not a gardener, but I live with them), yet they do fine out in the wild, "... and yet not even Solomon in all his glory was dressed as richly as these." (Yes, I know, I just quoted the Bible on a science forum. And to those who disagree with such practices, maybe its YOUR turn not to have such a narrow mind.) And I've always been a little skeptical on "alternate energy sources" of any kind. Especially since we've discovered we can find oil just about anywhere. (Not only do we have bacteria that can manufacture it, we have plenty of proof (look it up on ScienceDaily) that rocks make it ABIOTICALLY. :D) Sadly, I think much more than just money-grabbing socialism (ironic, ain't it, that socialists seek more money than capitalists?) is going on. Its idolatry. Bow down to money. Bow down to politicians. Bow down to Al Gore. Bow down to your saviors. Bow down to the ecosystem. Bow down to mother nature. These people who say these things say they are "progressive," that they bring "progress," but could it merely be that they are progressing backwards? Can't it be that we, having come out of the wilderness and seeing the bright light of truth have gone running back into the forest of bewilderment, greediness, pervertedness, deceitfulness, and hostility? (Note that "Babylon," whose name was given to that nation by the Hebrew, sounds a lot like the Hebrew word for "confusion.") We've built our towers to the stars, and found a God who we have found will not give us godhood, will not give us power, but has instead set forth a destroyer to smash our idols, smash our towers, smash our dreams and ambitions, and we have become so frightened of him, that we fall screaming from our loftiness into the black cold despair of our tribal ancestors, and into the clutches of monsters like Obama, FDR, Mao (admittedly, the former two are better than the latter), the usual (Hitler, Stalin, etc.) found on your list of dictators, the Caesars (ALL of them), etc.. And He has decreed that "those who fall from Me shall lie down in Sheol and shall never rise again." People will rather die than give up their idols. KDK,
“‘wonderful’ Henry Ford”
I congratulate you on putting “wonderful” in quotes. Henry Ford was a creep.

Matt,
You rock. Though I personally am pretty sure that even sudden climate changes won’t have a profound impact on much. “Consider the lilies of the field. God clothes them and takes care of them,…” explains why it takes so much work to garden and keep the li’l buggers alive (I myself am not a gardener, but I live with them), yet they do fine out in the wild, “… and yet not even Solomon in all his glory was dressed as richly as these.” (Yes, I know, I just quoted the Bible on a science forum. And to those who disagree with such practices, maybe its YOUR turn not to have such a narrow mind.) And I’ve always been a little skeptical on “alternate energy sources” of any kind. Especially since we’ve discovered we can find oil just about anywhere. (Not only do we have bacteria that can manufacture it, we have plenty of proof (look it up on ScienceDaily) that rocks make it ABIOTICALLY. :D )

Sadly, I think much more than just money-grabbing socialism (ironic, ain’t it, that socialists seek more money than capitalists?) is going on. Its idolatry. Bow down to money. Bow down to politicians. Bow down to Al Gore. Bow down to your saviors. Bow down to the ecosystem. Bow down to mother nature. These people who say these things say they are “progressive,” that they bring “progress,” but could it merely be that they are progressing backwards? Can’t it be that we, having come out of the wilderness and seeing the bright light of truth have gone running back into the forest of bewilderment, greediness, pervertedness, deceitfulness, and hostility? (Note that “Babylon,” whose name was given to that nation by the Hebrew, sounds a lot like the Hebrew word for “confusion.”)

We’ve built our towers to the stars, and found a God who we have found will not give us godhood, will not give us power, but has instead set forth a destroyer to smash our idols, smash our towers, smash our dreams and ambitions, and we have become so frightened of him, that we fall screaming from our loftiness into the black cold despair of our tribal ancestors, and into the clutches of monsters like Obama, FDR, Mao (admittedly, the former two are better than the latter), the usual (Hitler, Stalin, etc.) found on your list of dictators, the Caesars (ALL of them), etc..

And He has decreed that “those who fall from Me shall lie down in Sheol and shall never rise again.” People will rather die than give up their idols.

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